1-4 is not going to get it done. Now we sit at 10-9-1 after four weeks in Circa. Have to turn it around.

PHI +7.5 at JAX (LONDON)
It certainly feels like the Eagles are the correct side when considering value, but at this point that anemic offense has no weapons left. Pass for me.

IND +2.5 at PIT
The Colts are coming back from a win in London, and the Steelers have extended rest, having played last Thursday night. Even if you ignore the rest, the Colts were struggling until Washington ran out of viable quarterbacks. I think the Colts defense will continue to struggle with teams that can pass the ball down the field, which the Steelers have been doing and doing reasonably well. The Steelers have been much better at home than on the road, but the defense has played well overall. I think the Steelers are able to move the ball and defend a team with limited passing options. Steelers as a bet and Steelers in picks contests.

MIN -2.5 at NO
The Saints offensive line problems persist, and they cannot stop the run at all. Besides that, everything is great in New Orleans. I am not laying points on the road with Kyler Murray, nor do I want to back the saints, again.

CLE +2 at NYJ
I do not have a good feel for this game at all. The Browns are rested and the Jets are still missing some of their limited offensive weapons. Pass for me.

CIN -7 at MIA
The Bengals on the road, in heat, and maybe missing both of their starting wide receivers. Joe B has not been great this year, they have struggled to run the ball and now they are being asked to win by more than a touchdown on the road. Lean Miami, but they are still the Dolphins.

LV +3.5 at NE
The 4-0 ATS Raiders are getting points again on the road in New England. I kind of want to fade the Pats after their huge win against the Bills last week, but I am not a fan of this game at all. Pass for me.

NYG +4.5 at WAS
Jayden Daniels is trending toward playing and this line is reflecting that news.  I have no clue what to make of the Commanders offense and this is also Jameis on the road. Pass for me.

HOU -7.5 at TEN
Nope. I am not playing either side of this game.

CHI-1.5 at GB
The Packers offensive line is still terrible, but being a home dog to the Bears with a back-up QB is wild to me. There is no way the Bears should be favored on the road here without Caleb Williams. Lean Green Bay.

DEN -3.5 at LAC
Will the Denver offense be better now that the play calling duties may be a little different than they have been? Well, it can not be worse. Lean Denver as the Chargers seem destined for a house cleaning.

SF +3 at SEA
Okay, the Niners can not keep getting away with this. Starters get injured, the Niners just keep going. The Niners’ offense struggled against the Seahawks last year. The Seattle offense has not been as consistent as they were last year, committing significantly more turnovers this year and overall, not being as solid. Much of that can be blamed with Darnold getting hurt, then coming back and struggling on the road. I think Seattle here comes through and the Niners’ injury woes finally shine through as a problem. Seattle as a bet and in picks contests.

DET -5.5 at ARZ
This feels like a spot I would back the Cardinals. The world watched the Lions defense struggle again and we know the Cardinals can be frisky. With their left tackle out the Cardinals struggled the rest of the game last week yet almost had a chance to win and cover last week. I am staying away here as this line has moved around a fair amount. I bet you will see the Cardinals be a public dog here. Pass.

BAL +3.5 at ATL
Snoop Huntley on the road. Pass. The line is telling us Lamar is out and I have zero interest in this game.

BUF +3 at LAR
I am not going against the Bills in a dome after a bad loss. I am also not backing the Rams at home. I kind of like the Rams but pass for now.

I have lots of work to do before locking in my five plays for Circa.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

My Plays
PIT -2.5
SEA -3

Circa Millions Contest
PIT -2.5
SEA -3

Survivor Selections
Down to one entry!
JAX (WIN)
SF (WIN)
BUF (WIN)
MIN (WIN)
DAL (LOSE)

NFL Computer Model Picks
Platinum



Premium
HOU -7.5
MIA +7
NE -3.5
LAR -3

The Rest
MIN -2.5
PHI +7.5
CLE +2.5
GB +3
IND +2.5
NYG +4
LAC +3.5
DET -5.5
SEA -2.5
BAL +3.5





NFL Computer Model
2026-2027 Season
Overall 28-35 44.44%
Platinum 3-3 50%
Premium 6-8 42.85%

My Plays
Overall 6-6 55.55%
Circa Millions Contests Record 10-9-1 52.63%
Props/Parlays/Teasers/Other 1-4 -285
Boosts 1-1 +000

Week four is here! This is the week I hope I know what I think I know! Sadly, this week is marred by injuries and some abysmal games. I will do my best to find five games for the Circa Millions contest. I am currently sitting in a tie for 504^th place. There is a long way to go, but this is a start we can build on!

IND -3.5 at WAS (LON)
I hate the games in Europe. Do we know each team’s travel plans? Pass for me.


NE +7 at BUF
I could not play the Pats here, so to me it is Bills or nothing. Buffalo had their let down game last week and still won and covered. I am passing here as well.

TEN +11.5 at BAL
The Titans offense is awful and the defense is not much better. We have already had the early season Ravens collapse game, this is the early season blowout game. I think the Ravens will continue to score as they have all year long and the Titans are just not capable. Baltimore as a wager and in picks contests.


LAR -3 at PHI
The Eagles offense is not good and the offensive line is significantly worse than they anticipated. Now, Jalen Hurts may be without his only remaining receiving weapon. The Rams meanwhile have been solid in every game where they did not fly across the world in a day. Last week could have easily gone their way. We have one team that struggles to score, without their best weapon now being asked to protect their QB against a very good defense. I think the Rams do more than enough here and win, provided Smith does actually sit. Rams as a bet and in contests.

JAX +2.5 at CIN
I Think the Jags are actually good. I have been skeptical of the Bengals all season long and last week allowing the Steelers offense to cook did not alleviate any of my concerns. Having said all that, this is a tough road spot in Cincinnati. This will be the best offense the Jags have faced. Pass for me.

DAL +3 at HOU
Is Nico Collins going to play? The Texans offense needs Collins so badly before I would consider them. Pass for now.

NYJ +3.5 at CHI
The Jets stack was very good to me last week in DFS. I have zero feel for this game and most of that has to deal with the Bears not naming a starting QB. Pass for now.

GB -3.5 at TB
I know nothing about the Bucs new QB. I hate both these teams and they both stink. I do not want to do anything with the game, because then I would have to watch it. Pass.

ARZ -2.5 at NYG
This line has changed the most since lines opened over the summer. The Giants continue to be devastated by injuries and the Cardinals are able to score points. I am never laying points on the road with the Cardinals. Pass.

MIA +10.5 at MIN
What if the Dolphins do not score? This is an ugly slate. I do not particularly like taking or laying the points here either. Ugh, I do have to pick five games against the spread.

KC -4.5 at LVR
Pass. I am not laying more than a FG on the road with Patrick Mahomes. Yes, I know what happened last week. That might say more about the Dolphins than anything.

LAC +7 at SEA
Will the Chargers ever win a game? I kind of want to play Seattle back home against whatever is left of the Chargers. There is something about the Chargers that still scares me. Pass for now.

DEN +2.5 at SF
The Niners have so many injuries they can not even put another player on injured reserve. The Denver defense is legit, and the Broncos offense seems to be turning a corner. I really like the Broncos to play well here, mainly due to the slew of problems with Niners will encounter depth wise. Even if some of the questionable players suit up for the Niners, they will have limited depth if they are lucky. Give me the resurgent Broncos as a bet and in picks contests.

DET -3.5 at CAR
If the Panthers were not missing both starting corners, I would be all over the Panthers here. I still may find my way back home. The Detroit defense is not good as we know, and the Panthers need some positive injury news for their WR’s before I may consider coming back here. It seems like I am invested in the island night games every week. Lean Carolina.

ATL +2.5 at NO
Man, I was trying to stay away from the Saints again. The Saints will be missing one offensive line starter for sure and that affected them in the second half of last week that created immense pressure and the insanely almost impossible four turnovers in the final quarter. The Falcons might have just caught the Packers at the right time, and the Saints could be for real. This is the Hurricane Katrina homecoming game for New Orleans. Who am I kidding, Saints as a bet and in picks contests.

Here we are at the moment with four teams in for the Circa Millions. I need to keep going and improve on my 9-5-1 record!

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

My Plays
NO -2.5
BAL -11.5
LAR -3
DEN +2.5

6 Point Teaser +240
DEN +8.5
BAL -5.5
SEA -1
BUF -1

Circa Millions Contest
NO -2.5
BAL -11.5
LAR -3
DEN +2.5

Survivor Selections
Down to one entry!
JAX (WIN)
SF (WIN)
BUF (WIN)
MIN

NFL Computer Model Picks
Platinum
JAX +2.5


Premium
IND -3.5
LAR -3
MIA +10.5
KC -4.5
DET -3.5

The Rest
PIT -2.5
NE +7
CHI -3.5
NYG +2.5
GB -3.5
TEN +11.5
HOU -3
DEN +2.5
LAC +7
ATL +2.5




NFL Computer Model
2026-2027 Season
Overall 19-29 39.85%
Platinum 2-3 40%
Premium 3-6 33.33%

My Plays
Overall 5-4 55.55%
Circa Millions Contests Record 9-5-1 64.28%
Props/Parlays/Teasers/Other 1-3 -185
Boosts 1-1 +000

After two weeks I always look at how I am doing when picking games with each team. I am 2-0 backing the Saints against the spread this year, but then I am 0-2 backing the Bucs. Part of being good at handicapping is being able to change your mind and adapt on the fly. Having said that, most teams do regress to the mean ATS. Yes, there is always one team that outshines their perception and ends 13-4 ATS. Seattle was that team last year, if you figure out who that will be this year you should take advantage.

SEA -7 at WAS
I am staying away from Washington in this spot as a home dog. Remember when we could just bet on home dogs and print money. That has ended and I am afraid of attacking teams playing Seattle now. Pass.

CIN -3.5 at PIT
I know what is the correct side here, but nope. I will not back my Steelers until I see it with my own eyes. The signs are all there. Divisional home dog, against an offense that was supposed to be good but has been average. Steelers’ defense is elite, that is for sure, but the offense is obsolete. Lean Pittsburgh, but no chance.

NYJ +6.5 at DET
The Lions offensive line continues to struggle and the defense is awful. The coaching advantage here is too large to even quantify. The Jets are 2-0 ATS and this look ahead line was around 9.5. Despite the line moving towards the Jets, I lean Detroit here. This should be a Lions offense gets it going at home game, but I am passing.

TEN +2.5 at NYG
God, this game may take place in massive rainstorms and wind. I want to mention that if you are playing in the DK picks contest, this line is set to TEN +6.5. Pass everywhere except in the DK picks contest.

NE +3 at JAX
I am backing the Jags here back home. The year from hell appears on the horizon for the Patriots. No AJ Brown, another offensive lineman broke his leg last week, the secondary continues mount up with injuries. The Jags looked strong to start in Denver and then faded and lost a close game. Playing in the south early in the season is always more difficult. Provided the Jags offensive line can hold up and protect Trevor Lawrence, the Jags offense should get going here. Drake Maye has struggled with turnovers, and I think that continues here. Jags -3 as a bet and in picks contests.

KC -10.5 at MIA
Nope. I said it each of the last two weeks. Mahomes laying three or less, yes. Mahomes laying close to a touchdown or more, pass. This is the correct spot to back the Dolphins at home getting a bunch of points. I can not get behind backing them though, but I do understand the reasoning. Everyone has moved the ball with ease against Miami and no reason that will not continue here.

HOU -1.5 at IND
Is Nico Collins playing? The Texan’s offense looked bad without any real weapon. I suppose we have seen two teams run the ball easily against the Colts. Both of these teams being 0-2 is very interesting, considering they both played two good teams. I need to know Collins status before deciding here, but man this is a stay-away for me.

CAR -2.5 at CLE
The Panthers are road favorites for back-to-back weeks. I cannot believe I am saying this. I am leaning into backing the Browns here. Carolina has struggled to stop the run, and we know Cleveland wants to pound the rock and then throw off it. It feels insane to back the Browns in any capacity, but a home dog against an NFC South team, I am interested. Lean Browns.

LAC +7 at BUF
I am not laying the seven, nor am I interested in getting seven. The chargers are in massive trouble and will be playing with desperation. Pass for me. The Chargers may be dead in the water, but the Bills defense is not good. Lots of back door cover potential here.

MIN -1.5 at TB
I am done with TB for the moment. Pass.

ARZ +8.5 at SF
I have a soft spot for the Cardinals. I did not take them week one and I think I was disappointed in myself and ended up taking them as my fifth game last week and of course it did not work out. I do want to take them again. For some reason I just like a team with a good offense getting a ton of points. The garbage TD potential is always there. I am definitely conflating DFS results and their offense with the Cardinals being a good wager or selection in contests. Pass for me.

LV +3 at NO
We are a pro Saints blog. We fired on the Saints each of the last two weeks and were successful. I really want to fire on the saints again. I think their offense is very good and the scheme seems to have receivers open constantly. I am concerned with the Saints losing an offensive tackle and now facing the solid pass rush of the Raiders. Having said that, maybe the Raiders played the two worst teams in the NFL the last two weeks in the Dolphins and Chargers. Meanwhile, the Saints played two solid offenses in the Lions and Ravens. This is still Kirk Cousins on the road. If the Saints defense can stimy the Lions and Ravens, they certainly can slow Kirk Cousins and Tre Tucker. (I am assuming Bowers sits one more week) Saints -3 as a bet and in picks contests.

BAL -3.5 vs DAL
This it the Ravens correction game. Last week Baltimore fell apart in the second half and struggled to score and stop the Saints. Dallas has had problems in both the first two weeks with a mobile QB and with getting any kinds of stops on defense. Despite Zay Flowers sitting, I believe that the Ravens will rebound in a huge way this week. Baltimore is -3 in picks contests and was -3 when I bet them earlier this week. I still like them at -3.5.

LAR at DEN
Two weeks in and I am unsure of both these teams still. The Rams have a bunch of injuris that are very concerning. If Puka sits again this week in Denver it may be a different story for this Rams offense. Lean Denver.

PHI -4.5 at CHI
Who is playing QB for the Bears? If it is not Case Keenum, I have interest in Chicago. Pass for now.

It appears I have three games locked in for Circa Millions and need to find two more! I will Tweet out who I end up over the weekend.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

My Plays
BAL -3
JAX -3
NO -3

6 Point Tease +240 (DK)
SEA -1
BUF -1
CLE +8.5
DEN +8.5

Circa Millions Contest
BAL -3
JAX -3
NO -3

Survivor Selections
I have two entries in most of my survivor contests.
Entry One
PIT (WIN)
TB (LOSE)

Entry Two
JAX (WIN)
SF (WIN)
BUF

NFL Computer Model Picks
Platinum
None


Premium
LAR -2.5
SEA -7
PIT +3.5
DET -6.5

The Rest
GB -4.5
LAC +7
CLE +2.5
IND +2
MIA +10.5
TEN +3
JAX -3
SF -8.5
TB +1.5
DAL +3.5
NO -3
CHI +4.5



NFL Computer Model
2026-2027 Season
Overall 12-20 37.5%
Platinum 2-3 40%
Premium 1-4 20%

My Plays
Overall 4-3 57.14%
Circa Millions Contests Record 6-4 60%
Props/Parlays/Teasers/Other 1-2 -085
Boosts 1-1 +000

Another 3-2 week in contests. I need a 5-0 to vault me a lot higher. Perhaps this week!

PIT +2.5 at CHI
Is it wrong if I like the Steelers more if Mason Rudolph is the QB? I am waiting here, but I need to avoid my team. Pass

NE -7 at CIN
Will Joe Burrow play? This line is all over the place and sits at +8.5 in some contests. If the number gets closer to six, then I am intrigued in contests due to the CLV. But as a bet, pass.

NYG +10.5 at DET
The Lions at home coming off a loss against a bad defense. Lions always put up points in these spots and the Giants will put up little resistance. The Packers offense has struggled recently and they put up 27 on the road in New York. Lions as a bet and in contests.

MIN +6 at GB
Passing on JJ McCarthy until he shows life. Also, not a fan of the Packer’s offense without Josh Jacobs, maybe. I am out.

SEA -13.5 at TEN
I want to take Seattle, but I always fear laying large amounts of point on the road. Pass.

INDY +3.5 at KC
Daniel Jones on the road outdoors has been an adventure. The Chiefs playing anywhere has been downright disappointing. I have no trust either way. Pass.

NYJ +13.5 at BAL
I do not trust the Ravens with Lamar looking like he does at the moment. The Jets are terrible, but at least they have an actual QB now. Lean NYJ, but pass.

CLE +3.5 at LVR
As someone who had invested in the Browns last week, I was slightly nervous when Dillion Gabriel left the game. It worked out, but yeah, the Browns offense is not good at all. Both defenses should control the game, but the Browns defense has been worse on the road. Pass for me, but there is an argument the Raiders should not be favored by more than three over anyone.

JAX -3 at ARZ
I can get a feisty home dog here? I am intrigued. The Cardinals offense came to life with Jacoby Brissett. I do not believe the Jags are good at all. Massive home win last week, time to come crashing back down to Earth. Lean Cardinals.

PHI -3.5 at DAL
The Eagles best offensive lineman is out. The Eagles have struggled to move the ball. The Dallas defense got healthier, in addition to the moves they made at the trade dead line. The Dallas offense will have to protect and move the ball against a stout Eagles defense. I like the home divisional dog here and think Dallas is getting better at the moment. Maybe the Eagles offense shows up here and reminds everyone who they are. I need to see it. Dallas as a bet and in contests.

ATL +2.5 at NO
The Falcons are missing Drake London and will have the corpse of Kirk Cousins playing QB. Did we not see this same situation at home versus the Dolphins? I think the Falcons could not move the ball at all. Lean Saints.

TB +6.5 at LAR
This line keeps bouncing between 6.5 and 7 points. The Bucs are still injured on defense. The Bucs have the stomach flu rolling through their team this week. The Ram’s defense is very good and the Rams offense will have a great chance to score in bunches here. Lean Rams.

CAR +7 at SF
Wait, why is this number so big. The model does have the exact same number, but this feels like a big adjustment from the books as the Panthers were 5.5-point favorites just two weeks ago. The Niners defense is still bad, and the Cardinals moved the ball the entire game. Lean Panthers.

 

This is where I am at the moment and who knows what news may hit that changes my plans in contests. As of now, I have lots of work to do!

I will post my choices on Twitter/X Sunday morning.  

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

My Plays
DAL +3.5
DET -10.5

Contest Picks
DAL +3.5
DET -10.5
CIN +8.5 (If Joe B plays)

Computer Model Plays
Platinum


Premium
IND +3.5
NYJ +13.5
CLE +3.5

Regular Plays
HOU +6.5
PIT +2.5
NE -6
DET -10.5
MIN +6.5
SEA -13.5
ARZ +2.5
ATL +2
DAL +3.5
LAR  -6.5
CAR +7

NFL Computer Model
2025-2026 Season
Overall 75-90 45.45%
Platinum 2-6 25%
Premium 14-16 46.66%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 16-22 42.10%

My Plays
Overall 14-14 50%
Draft Kings Contest Record 32-23 58.18%
Props/Parlays/Teasers/Other 2-2 50% +000

It was nice to go 4-1 last week in the contest, which makes up for the 1-4 week a little while ago. I am sitting at 29-21 and really need to pick it up to have a chance at a top finish. This week is a special one as I am attending the Steeler game with my dad and both my children. I have been looking forward to this for some time.

For now, on to week eleven.

WAS +2.5 at MIA
Have you seen the Commanders defense? This team is exceptionally bad and this feels like a lost season in Washington. Miami had a chance to quit but now seems to be playing better. I think the Dolphins weapons will be able to move the ball and score. I have believed in the Dolphins before and that was a mistake. Lean Miami in Madrid.

CIN +5 at PIT
Nope. I was able to throw the Steelers out of picks contests last Sunday. I am staying away again. If Joe Flacco carves them up again, it is a bad sign for what we know is already a team that is not that good. Pass.

CAR +3.5 at ATL
Do we bet numbers or teams? This is an awful spot for the Falcons, coming back from an OT game in London and playing right away a few days later. The Panthers are well the Panthers. Just when I think they have an identity, they play badly, mostly at the QB position. Either way, I am out here.

TB +6.5 at BUFF
I have zero feel here. The Bucs seem too beat up to get it done, the Bills are wildly inconsistent. Pass.

HOU -6 at TEN
No one in their right mind is laying almost a touchdown with Davis Mills on the road. Having said that, I am not exactly clamoring to bet the Titans. Pass.

CHI +2.5 at MIN
I do not believe in the Bears, at all. The Bears defense has struggled all year long and I am for some reason betting on JJ McCarthy to be an efficient passer and score points. Minnesota as a bet and in picks contests.

GB -6.5 at NYG
I will not bet on Jameis Winston as a home dog. I will not bet on Jameis Winston as a home dog. I will not bet on Jameis Winston as a home dog. Lean Giants.

LAC -2.5 at JAX
It feels like the correct spot to take the Jags as they get healthy. The Chargers offensive line issues still remain, but for now I can not. Pass.

SEA +3.5 at LAR
I Think the Rams may be the best team in the NFC. I need to see Sam Darnold do it again on the road against a real defense before I really start to believe. I know the Rams will score here as their offense has been fantastic. Rams as a bet and in picks contests.

SF -2.5 at ARZ
No clue on either of these teams. The Niners offense is getting healthy but the defense is still dead. Pass.

BAL -7.5 at CLE
I feel like I take Cleveland in this spot every year. The Ravens and their high-powered defense come in and there is weird weather, and the Browns defense makes enough plays to win, or stay close. I am betting the Browns defense in this spot. I just hope the Browns offense does enough. Bowns as a bet and in picks contests.

KC -3.5 at DEN
I think the Chiefs are the correct side here with their defense against whatever Bo Nix is and has been. Yet, I struggle to lay the points with the Chiefs here, even coming off a bye week. Lean Kansas City.

DET +2.5 at PHI
The Lions have struggled when teams have lined up and punched them in the face, like the Vikings, Chiefs and Packers. Guess what Philly will do. Lean Eagles.

DAL -3.5 at LVR
Nope. Pass.

This is where I am at the moment and who knows what news may hit that changes my plans in contests. As of now, I have lots of work to do!

I will post my choices on Twitter/X Sunday morning.  

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

My Plays
LAR -3.5
CLE +7.5
MIN -2.5

Contest Picks
LAR -2.5
CLE +8.5
MIN -2.5

Computer Model Plays
Platinum


Premium
NYJ +13
TB +6.5
DET +2.5

Regular Plays
WAS +2.5
CAR +3.5
HOU -6
CHI +2.5
NYG +6
CIN +5
JAX +2.5
LAR -3.5
ARZ +3
CLE +7.5
KC -3.5
DAL-3.5

NFL Computer Model
2025-2026 Season
Overall 69-81 46%
Platinum 2-6 25%
Premium 14-14 50%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 16-20 44.44%

My Plays
Overall 13-12 52%
Draft Kings Contest Record 29-21 58%
Props/Parlays/Teasers/Other 2-2 50% +000

We are at the halfway point of the season. Until last week, I was doing just fine in contests and with wagers. Then I went 1-4. Now, there is not a lot of margins for error at all. 3-2 needs to be the standard each at every week at a minimum in order to cash.

ATL +6.5 at IND (Germany)
I think I have not got the Falcons right this entire season. I am not going to try now. The Colt should bounce back and score, as they have every week this season. Lean Colts, but pass.

NYG +4.5 at CHI
I am in the same boat with the Giants. I think I have whiffed on them a few times. When you do not have a read stay away. However, the Giants are now missing their two best weapons, several offensive lineman and the defense is not good. Lean Bears.

Billa -8.5 at MIA
We all know the Dolphins are dead and heading for an ugly off-season. Yet, I am interested in the home divisional dog here. The Bills coming off a massive win and in for a let-down spot. You can run on Miami and we all know Buffalo wants to do that a ton. Lean Miami.

BAL -4.5 at MIN
If the Ravens are going to make a run, it starts with games like these. Baltimore should score, but have they fixed their defense? We will find out Sunday. Lean Baltimore.

CLE -2.5 at NYJ
The Browns being road favorites is hilarious. Just out of principal I want to take the Jets. Pass.

NE +2.5 at TB
The Bucs coming off a bye week, might be getting healthy. If the Bucs are healthy once we see the Friday practice report and injury designation, I would extremely interested in them. Pass, for now.

NO +5.5 at CAR
The Panthers can play defense and run the ball. They finally have an identity. Am I about to lay points with Carolina, perhaps. The Saints are clearly playing for the future and traded an offensive lineman and a wide receiver from an already putrid offense. I am heavily considering the Panthers.

JAX -1.5 at HOU
Davis Mills? Laying points on the road with the Jags? Nope. Pass.

ARZ +6.5 at SEA
Why do I think the Cardinals might not be terrible? God. Seattle is good, we know that. I am staying away here.

LAR -4.5 at SF
Speaking of teams I never get correct, the Niners. I want to play the Rams here, but I hate laying points on the road. Lean Rams.

DET -8 at WAS
This is the Lions bounce back spot, right? Right?

PIT +2.5 at LAC
I am trying to be strong. I feel like an addict coming back for a fix. I want to play my Steelers here, but really it is about the Chargers offensive line being torn to shreds and me assuming the Steelers get fast pressure. Sigh. Steelers as a bet and in picks contest.

PHI +2 at GB
The Eagles coming off a bye week against a vastly inconsistent Packers team. I am in. The Eagles have to run the ball and get pressure here, which I think they do. Eagles as a bet and in contests.

This is where I am at the moment and who knows what news may hit that changes my plans in contests. As of now, I have one team in for sure and lots of work to do!

I will post my choices on Twitter/X Sunday morning.  

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

My Plays
PIT +2.5
PHI +2

Contest Picks
PIT +2.5
PHI +2.5

Computer Model Plays
Platinum


Premium
PIT +2.5

Regular Plays
DEN -8.5
IND -6.5
CHI -3.5
BUF -9.5
MIN +3.5
CLE -2
NE +2.5
CAR -5.5
HOU +2
ARZ +6.5
LAR -4.5
DET -8.5
PHI +2.5

NFL Computer Model
2025-2026 Season
Overall 63-73 46.32%
Platinum 2-6 25%
Premium 14-13 51.85%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 16-19 45.71%

My Plays
Overall 12-11 52.17%
Draft Kings Contest Record 25-20 55.55%
Props/Parlays/Teasers/Other 2-2 50% +000

This is an odd week. I do not have a great feel at this point. As an adult with children, sometimes real life gets in the way.

Car +14 AT GB
I have seen the Panthers on the road. This is either play Green Bay or pass. I am leaning into pass.

DEN +2 at HOU
Is the Houston defense the best unit in this game? Both defenses should play well, but the Broncos missing a star CB matters a ton when Niko Collins is coming back. Pass.

MIN +8.5 at DET
This is basically a rookie QB on the road against a team we know will score. Lean Detroit.

ATL +5.5 at NE
I am about to give up on the Falcons. The Patriots are either very good, or playing the softest schedule ever, or perhaps both. Pass for now.

IND -3 at PIT
This has to be the Admiral Akbar spot. I am going to the game, but this line is too small. The Steelers can not stop anyone at this point. I am not playing the Steelers.

CHI -2.5 at CIN
A hurt Joe Flacco takes on a not great defense. I think this is a great DFS game, but not sure about betting. Pass.

LAC -9.5 at TEN
I am not laying over a TD on the road. Pass.

SF -3 at NYG
I am very interested in the home dog Giants here. The Niners defense is hurt, they have zero pass rush and the Giants still find a way to move the ball pretty well. Not official, but massive lean on NYG, especially at this number.

NO +14 at LAR
When a rookie QB takes over the ranges of possible outcomes have widened a great deal. He could be awful, he could be better than Spencer rattler, anything is in play. Rams or pass for me.

JAX -2.5 at LVR
Please Lord keep me away from playing the Raiders here. Brock Bowers returns and I want to play the Raiders. Check back Sunday.

KC -1.5 at BUF
I am on the Chiefs here. The Bills struggle on defense and their offense has been worse than anticipated. Chiefs are healthy and seemed to be rounding into shape. If you remove some random Mahomes picks, the Chiefs record is even better. Chiefs in contests and as a wager.

SEA -3 at WAS
Ohhhh man, I have no feel here. The easy answer is Seattle. A not completely healthy Jayden Daniels without his NO.1 WR, against a Seattle team that seems to score every week. Pass for now, but I do not want to lay points on the road all week long.

ARZ +2.5 at DAL
Nope. I will not be trapped by these two bad teams again. Pass.

This is where I am at the moment and who knows what news may hit that changes my plans in contests. As of now, I have one team in for sure and lots of work to do!

I will post my choices on Twitter/X Sunday morning.  

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

My Plays
KC -1.5

Contest Picks
KC -1.5

Computer Model Plays
Platinum
IND -3

Premium
KC -1.5

Regular Plays
CHI -2.5
DET -8.5
CAR +14
LAC -9.5
NE -5.5
SF -2.5
HOU -1.5
JAX -3.5
LAR -14
SEA -3.5
ARZ +2.5

NFL Computer Model
2025-2026 Season
Overall 56-66 45.90%
Platinum 2-5 28.57%
Premium 14-12 53.84%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 16-17 48.48%

My Plays
Overall 12-10 54.54%
Draft Kings Contest Record 24-16 60%
Props/Parlays/Teasers/Other 2-2 50% +000

I hate to say I told you so on the Steelers, but here we are. The defense has so many problems for being the most expensive defense in the league. I hope that when my grandchildren are around and Mike Tomlin retires, the next coach is offensive minded.

I would think that when we reach week seven, we should have a better handle on who is actually good this season. However, I believe there are a few teams that are so bad that they make other teams appear to be better than they are. I am talking about you Colts. We also have some teams getting healthy and having players returning from suspension. I said yesterday, I thought the Steelers were fraudulent and here we are. I can see the Ravens coming back and winning the AFC North after beating the Steelers in week 18. Anyway, on to week seven!

LAC -3 at JAX (LONDON)
Nope. If Puka was playing, I would like the Rams. Instead, I am passing.

LV +12.5 at KC
Are the Chiefs back? Rice is returning, but this is the spot every year the Chiefs win but fail to cover. I am not laying the points here, but the Raiders without Brock Bowers are very bad. Pass for now.

MIA +2.5 at CLE
Bad weather. Miami coming north. Everyone can run the ball on the Dolphins. I believe the Browns defense is the best unit on the field and will make things very hard for the Dolphins. Cleveland in contests and as a wager. I texted a few friends earlier in the week to play Judkins rushing overs. In a day it went from 84.5 (Where I bet it) all the way to 95.5. That is a jump. Browns in everything.

NE -7 at TEN
I am not laying a TD on the road, even if the team getting points is the worst in the NFL and just fired people. Pass.

NO +5 at CHI
The Bears have not really beaten anyone. The Saints are undervalued in the eyes of the public. I am not taking Spencer Rattler on the road outdoors. Pass.

PHI -1.5 at MIN
We have a home dog coming off a bye week that is getting healthy. I think considering all the injuries, I like the Vikings defense against the Eagles. Minnesota had a slew of injuries on both sides of the ball, but the defense is back. Offensively, I cannot believe I want to back Carson Wentz, if he starts. Really, I want to play the Vikings passing game against the injury-filled Eagles secondary and defense. Lean Vikings in contests and as a wager. The downside here is are the Eagles really going to lose three games in a row?

CAR -1.5 at NYJ
The Panthers are a road favorite? In this economy? Pass. This game sucks.

IND +1.5 at LAC
The Chargers are getting healthy. The Colts have a secondary that is missing a ton of players. The Cardinals threw the ball at will last week against the Colts. I think the Chargers will be able to do the same. Provided Joe Alt is back, the Chargers offense will have the time to throw and score points. Chargers as a wager and in picks contests.

NYG +7 at DEN
Oh boy I want to be on the Giants here. The broncos played in London last week and the Giants played on Thursday. This is a wonderful rest advantage spot for New York. However, it is a rookie QB on the road against a very good defense. Lean Giants.

WAS +1.5 at DAL
Dallas is now a slight home favorite as the line has just shifted. Neither team can defend here and I have no feel. Pass.

GB -6.5 at ARZ
I am not laying almost a touchdown on the road. Pass for me. I do want to mention the Packers are over-rated in the market though.

ATL +2 at SF
The Falcons coming off a massive home win now head across the country. If the Niners defense was healthy, this was an easy spot to play them. However, they are not. Man, I really want to play the Niners, but pass for now.

TB +5.5 at DET
This is the Lions get-right spot after losing in Kansas City last week. The Tampa Bay injuries keep piling up and while the Lions secondary is in tatters, the Bucs do not have anyone left to attack them. That has not mattered for Baker, but I think it catches up with them this week. Lions as a wager and in picks contests.

HOU +3 at Seattle
I hate Houston. Lean Seattle and their defense, as I expect they could throttle the Texans offensive line.

This is where I am at the moment and who knows what news may hit that changes my plans in contests. As of now, I have one team in for sure and lots of work to do!

I will post my choices on Twitter/X Sunday morning and may make a video for TikTok and YouTube like I did a few times last year.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

My Plays
DET -5.5
LAC -1.5
CLE -2.5

Contest Picks
DET -4.5
LAC -1.5
CLE -2.5

Computer Model Plays
Platinum


Premium
PIT -5.5
IND +1.5
HOU +3

Regular Plays
LAR -3
NO +5
MIA +2.5
NE -7
LVR +12.5
MIN +1.5
CAR +1.5
NYG +7
WAS -2.5
GB -6.5
ATL +2
DET -5.5

NFL Computer Model
2025-2026 Season
Overall 46-48 48.93%
Platinum 1-4 20%
Premium 12-8 60%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 13-12 52%

My Plays
Overall 8-7 53.33%
Draft Kings Contest Record 18-12 60%
Props/Parlays/Teasers/Other 2-2 50% +000