Sometimes you have to get back to basics. After two bad weeks in a row, it is important to remember who you are. I am not a favorite better. I am normally a dog bettor. I look for value, which is normally on dogs or small favorites. This week we have some bizarre spots, especially in contests. The lines lock early in the week prior to late news hitting. For example, if you are in the draft kings picks contest you can get the Panthers at +1.5 and the Falcons at +3.5. Those lines are long gone. It is always important to watch the numbers as they move during the week and take advantage of contests but be aware others will as well. If you are significantly far behind, going the other way is a great way to try and make up ground on the field.
HOU +2.5 at JAX (LONDON)
We lost on the Jags in London last week. I am not going back to the well. The Jags lost their left tackle and the Houston offense kind of got going against the Titans last week. Pass for me. This feels like a Texans or pass spot as a loss here really puts Houston in awful shape in the division.
CHI -1.5 at ATL
Does anyone know who will play QB for each team? I am awaiting some Friday practice news before doing anything here. However, if TUA is no where near the field I could be interested in Atlanta.
BAL -5.5 at CLE
I love the Browns here. Every year, Baltimore struggles in Cleveland. The Browns defense is solid enough to slow the Ravens down and the Cleveland offense can move the ball. I am here for the home divisional dog. The Ravens offensive line issues are still apparent, and I believe the Browns will put them on full display. Baltimore will win a close game here, but the Browns are live. Cleveland as a wager and in contests.
TEN +7 at IND
The Titans offense is awful and the defense is adequate. The Colts have really struggled to get the running game going and the Titans have been solid against the run. I kind of lean Titans, but I am not sure they have the ability to throw on the Colts as other teams have done. Pass for now.
NYJ +7.5 at NE
The Jets defensive line has been keeping this team in games. Getting QB pressure has allowed the Jets offense to do just enough. The Patriots are rolling at the moment and even with offensive line injuries did not miss a beat last week. I like getting the hook here, but I am not backing the Jets after a win. I will watch this to see how the Pats handle the Jets defense and protect Drake. Pass.
NO -1.5 at NYG
NOPE. I said last week I am out on the Saints. It is very important to change your mind when facts prove the opposite of what you think. I was bullish on the Saints to start the year, and they won for us in weeks one and two. I have completely flipped. The Saints cannot protect; they cannot run block and they have so few weapons on offense it is comical. Lean Giants as a home dog.
CAR -1.5 at PHI
Imagine me telling you five weeks ago the Eagles would be home dogs to the Panthers. If I have this correct. The Eagles named Andy Dalton the back up QB, demoting Tanner McKee. Two weeks ago, the Eagles released Dalton. Since that moment, the Eagles’ best offensive lineman retired. They traded another lineman to the Ravens. Barkley got hurt, Smith got Hurt, and Hurts has a blood clot. These are just the problems with the Eagles offense. Now consider the situation of the Eagles coming back from London and the Panthers with a massive rest advantage coming off a bye week. Carolina as a wager and in picks contests.
PIT -2.5 at TB
Fade the Steelers on the road and back them at home. This feels like a 10-7 team, and I am staying away from this one. The Steelers really struggled with short quick passes last week and stopped the run, I am not sure the Bucs can take advantage. Pass for me.
ARZ +12.5 at LAR
Man the Cardinals are bad. How long before we see a QB change? The Rams will figure this out, but I am not laying this many points with them. To me this is Cardinals for a back-door-cover or pass. Pass.
LAC +8.5 at KC
How can you take the Chargers? They Keep feeling like a fire everyone team. I am either playing Chiefs or passing. It feels like not that long ago you would bet the Chargers in this spot and they would lose by three. At this point, I cannot back them in any way, shape, or form, until they show something or get healthy. Pass for now.
BUF -4.5 at LVR
What an awful spot for the Bills. Back-to-back west coast games, after an overtime game on a short week. The Raiders played so badly in New England this line may be a little inflated as well. The Bills defense remains awful, and they have struggled defensively against opposing tight ends. If only the Raiders had one or two of them. Yes, I am concerned about the Raiders’ defense in this spot, but I believe they can get pressure on Josh Allen. Like I said I am back to my roots, give me the home dog Raiders as a wager and in picks contests.
DAL +1 at GB
I have no feel here for either team. Pass.
WAS +7.5 at SF
Speaking of no feel. I am 0-2 attacking the Niners this year and feel like I need to stay away from them. Pass for me. I need a better handle on this team.
So here I am sitting with three games and I need to find two more for the Circa contest.
Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!
My Plays
CLE +5.5
LVR +4.5
CAR -1
Circa Millions Contest
CLE +5.5
LVR +4.5
CAR -1
NFL Computer Model Picks
Platinum
NYJ +7.5
Premium
CLE +5.5
TEN +7
ARZ +12.5
LAC +8.5
The Rest
DEN +2.5
HOU +2.5
ATL +1.5
NYG +1.5
CAR -1.5
TB +2.5
LVR +4.5
DAL +1
WAS +7.5
NFL Computer Model
2026-2027 Season
Overall 36-40 47.36%
Platinum 3-3 50%
Premium 8-9 47.05%
My Plays
Overall 7-7 50%
Circa Millions Contests Record 11-12-2 47.82%
Props/Parlays/Teasers/Other 1-4 -285
Boosts 1-1 +000
