1-4 is not going to get it done. Now we sit at 10-9-1 after four weeks in Circa. Have to turn it around.
PHI +7.5 at JAX (LONDON)
It certainly feels like the Eagles are the correct side when considering value, but at this point that anemic offense has no weapons left. Pass for me.
IND +2.5 at PIT
The Colts are coming back from a win in London, and the Steelers have extended rest, having played last Thursday night. Even if you ignore the rest, the Colts were struggling until Washington ran out of viable quarterbacks. I think the Colts defense will continue to struggle with teams that can pass the ball down the field, which the Steelers have been doing and doing reasonably well. The Steelers have been much better at home than on the road, but the defense has played well overall. I think the Steelers are able to move the ball and defend a team with limited passing options. Steelers as a bet and Steelers in picks contests.
MIN -2.5 at NO
The Saints offensive line problems persist, and they cannot stop the run at all. Besides that, everything is great in New Orleans. I am not laying points on the road with Kyler Murray, nor do I want to back the saints, again.
CLE +2 at NYJ
I do not have a good feel for this game at all. The Browns are rested and the Jets are still missing some of their limited offensive weapons. Pass for me.
CIN -7 at MIA
The Bengals on the road, in heat, and maybe missing both of their starting wide receivers. Joe B has not been great this year, they have struggled to run the ball and now they are being asked to win by more than a touchdown on the road. Lean Miami, but they are still the Dolphins.
LV +3.5 at NE
The 4-0 ATS Raiders are getting points again on the road in New England. I kind of want to fade the Pats after their huge win against the Bills last week, but I am not a fan of this game at all. Pass for me.
NYG +4.5 at WAS
Jayden Daniels is trending toward playing and this line is reflecting that news. I have no clue what to make of the Commanders offense and this is also Jameis on the road. Pass for me.
HOU -7.5 at TEN
Nope. I am not playing either side of this game.
CHI-1.5 at GB
The Packers offensive line is still terrible, but being a home dog to the Bears with a back-up QB is wild to me. There is no way the Bears should be favored on the road here without Caleb Williams. Lean Green Bay.
DEN -3.5 at LAC
Will the Denver offense be better now that the play calling duties may be a little different than they have been? Well, it can not be worse. Lean Denver as the Chargers seem destined for a house cleaning.
SF +3 at SEA
Okay, the Niners can not keep getting away with this. Starters get injured, the Niners just keep going. The Niners’ offense struggled against the Seahawks last year. The Seattle offense has not been as consistent as they were last year, committing significantly more turnovers this year and overall, not being as solid. Much of that can be blamed with Darnold getting hurt, then coming back and struggling on the road. I think Seattle here comes through and the Niners’ injury woes finally shine through as a problem. Seattle as a bet and in picks contests.
DET -5.5 at ARZ
This feels like a spot I would back the Cardinals. The world watched the Lions defense struggle again and we know the Cardinals can be frisky. With their left tackle out the Cardinals struggled the rest of the game last week yet almost had a chance to win and cover last week. I am staying away here as this line has moved around a fair amount. I bet you will see the Cardinals be a public dog here. Pass.
BAL +3.5 at ATL
Snoop Huntley on the road. Pass. The line is telling us Lamar is out and I have zero interest in this game.
BUF +3 at LAR
I am not going against the Bills in a dome after a bad loss. I am also not backing the Rams at home. I kind of like the Rams but pass for now.
I have lots of work to do before locking in my five plays for Circa.
Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!
My Plays
PIT -2.5
SEA -3
Circa Millions Contest
PIT -2.5
SEA -3
Survivor Selections
Down to one entry!
JAX (WIN)
SF (WIN)
BUF (WIN)
MIN (WIN)
DAL (LOSE)
NFL Computer Model Picks
Platinum
Premium
HOU -7.5
MIA +7
NE -3.5
LAR -3
The Rest
MIN -2.5
PHI +7.5
CLE +2.5
GB +3
IND +2.5
NYG +4
LAC +3.5
DET -5.5
SEA -2.5
BAL +3.5
NFL Computer Model
2026-2027 Season
Overall 28-35 44.44%
Platinum 3-3 50%
Premium 6-8 42.85%
My Plays
Overall 6-6 55.55%
Circa Millions Contests Record 10-9-1 52.63%
Props/Parlays/Teasers/Other 1-4 -285
Boosts 1-1 +000
