NFL Week Five Wagers, Contest Plays, Survivor Picks and Computer Model Plays

1-4 is not going to get it done. Now we sit at 10-9-1 after four weeks in Circa. Have to turn it around.

PHI +7.5 at JAX (LONDON)
It certainly feels like the Eagles are the correct side when considering value, but at this point that anemic offense has no weapons left. Pass for me.

IND +2.5 at PIT
The Colts are coming back from a win in London, and the Steelers have extended rest, having played last Thursday night. Even if you ignore the rest, the Colts were struggling until Washington ran out of viable quarterbacks. I think the Colts defense will continue to struggle with teams that can pass the ball down the field, which the Steelers have been doing and doing reasonably well. The Steelers have been much better at home than on the road, but the defense has played well overall. I think the Steelers are able to move the ball and defend a team with limited passing options. Steelers as a bet and Steelers in picks contests.


MIN -2.5 at NO
The Saints offensive line problems persist, and they cannot stop the run at all. Besides that, everything is great in New Orleans. I am not laying points on the road with Kyler Murray, nor do I want to back the saints, again.

CLE +2 at NYJ
I do not have a good feel for this game at all. The Browns are rested and the Jets are still missing some of their limited offensive weapons. Pass for me.

CIN -7 at MIA
The Bengals on the road, in heat, and maybe missing both of their starting wide receivers. Joe B has not been great this year, they have struggled to run the ball and now they are being asked to win by more than a touchdown on the road. Lean Miami, but they are still the Dolphins.

LV +3.5 at NE
The 4-0 ATS Raiders are getting points again on the road in New England. I kind of want to fade the Pats after their huge win against the Bills last week, but I am not a fan of this game at all. Pass for me.

NYG +4.5 at WAS
Jayden Daniels is trending toward playing and this line is reflecting that news.  I have no clue what to make of the Commanders offense and this is also Jameis on the road. Pass for me.

HOU -7.5 at TEN
Nope. I am not playing either side of this game.

CHI-1.5 at GB
The Packers offensive line is still terrible, but being a home dog to the Bears with a back-up QB is wild to me. There is no way the Bears should be favored on the road here without Caleb Williams. Lean Green Bay.

DEN -3.5 at LAC
Will the Denver offense be better now that the play calling duties may be a little different than they have been? Well, it can not be worse. Lean Denver as the Chargers seem destined for a house cleaning.

SF +3 at SEA
Okay, the Niners can not keep getting away with this. Starters get injured, the Niners just keep going. The Niners’ offense struggled against the Seahawks last year. The Seattle offense has not been as consistent as they were last year, committing significantly more turnovers this year and overall, not being as solid. Much of that can be blamed with Darnold getting hurt, then coming back and struggling on the road. I think Seattle here comes through and the Niners’ injury woes finally shine through as a problem. Seattle as a bet and in picks contests.

DET -5.5 at ARZ
This feels like a spot I would back the Cardinals. The world watched the Lions defense struggle again and we know the Cardinals can be frisky. With their left tackle out the Cardinals struggled the rest of the game last week yet almost had a chance to win and cover last week. I am staying away here as this line has moved around a fair amount. I bet you will see the Cardinals be a public dog here. Pass.

BAL +3.5 at ATL
Snoop Huntley on the road. Pass. The line is telling us Lamar is out and I have zero interest in this game.

BUF +3 at LAR
I am not going against the Bills in a dome after a bad loss. I am also not backing the Rams at home. I kind of like the Rams but pass for now.

I have lots of work to do before locking in my five plays for Circa.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

My Plays
PIT -2.5
SEA -3

Circa Millions Contest
PIT -2.5
SEA -3

Survivor Selections
Down to one entry!
JAX (WIN)
SF (WIN)
BUF (WIN)
MIN (WIN)
DAL (LOSE)



NFL Computer Model Picks
Platinum



Premium
HOU -7.5
MIA +7
NE -3.5
LAR -3

The Rest
MIN -2.5
PHI +7.5
CLE +2.5
GB +3
IND +2.5
NYG +4
LAC +3.5
DET -5.5
SEA -2.5
BAL +3.5





NFL Computer Model
2026-2027 Season
Overall 28-35 44.44%
Platinum 3-3 50%
Premium 6-8 42.85%

My Plays
Overall 6-6 55.55%
Circa Millions Contests Record 10-9-1 52.63%
Props/Parlays/Teasers/Other 1-4 -285
Boosts 1-1 +000

NFL Week Five Thursday Night

The computer likes TB +8.5 tonight. I am riding with Dallas in survivor!

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

My Plays

Circa Millions Contest

Survivor Selections
Down to one entry!
JAX (WIN)
SF (WIN)
BUF (WIN)
MIN (WIN)
DAL



NFL Computer Model Picks
Platinum



Premium


The Rest





NFL Computer Model
2026-2027 Season
Overall 28-35 44.44%
Platinum 3-3 50%
Premium 6-8 42.85%

My Plays
Overall 6-6 55.55%
Circa Millions Contests Record 10-9-1 52.63%
Props/Parlays/Teasers/Other 1-4 -285
Boosts 1-1 +000

NFL Week Four Wagers, Contest Plays, Survivor Picks and Computer Model Plays

Week four is here! This is the week I hope I know what I think I know! Sadly, this week is marred by injuries and some abysmal games. I will do my best to find five games for the Circa Millions contest. I am currently sitting in a tie for 504th place. There is a long way to go, but this is a start we can build on!

IND -3.5 at WAS (LON)
I hate the games in Europe. Do we know each team’s travel plans? Pass for me.


NE +7 at BUF
I could not play the Pats here, so to me it is Bills or nothing. Buffalo had their let down game last week and still won and covered. I am passing here as well.

TEN +11.5 at BAL
The Titans offense is awful and the defense is not much better. We have already had the early season Ravens collapse game, this is the early season blowout game. I think the Ravens will continue to score as they have all year long and the Titans are just not capable. Baltimore as a wager and in picks contests.


LAR -3 at PHI
The Eagles offense is not good and the offensive line is significantly worse than they anticipated. Now, Jalen Hurts may be without his only remaining receiving weapon. The Rams meanwhile have been solid in every game where they did not fly across the world in a day. Last week could have easily gone their way. We have one team that struggles to score, without their best weapon now being asked to protect their QB against a very good defense. I think the Rams do more than enough here and win, provided Smith does actually sit. Rams as a bet and in contests.

JAX +2.5 at CIN
I Think the Jags are actually good. I have been skeptical of the Bengals all season long and last week allowing the Steelers offense to cook did not alleviate any of my concerns. Having said all that, this is a tough road spot in Cincinnati. This will be the best offense the Jags have faced. Pass for me.

DAL +3 at HOU
Is Nico Collins going to play? The Texans offense needs Collins so badly before I would consider them. Pass for now.

NYJ +3.5 at CHI
The Jets stack was very good to me last week in DFS. I have zero feel for this game and most of that has to deal with the Bears not naming a starting QB. Pass for now.

GB -3.5 at TB
I know nothing about the Bucs new QB. I hate both these teams and they both stink. I do not want to do anything with the game, because then I would have to watch it. Pass.

ARZ -2.5 at NYG
This line has changed the most since lines opened over the summer. The Giants continue to be devastated by injuries and the Cardinals are able to score points. I am never laying points on the road with the Cardinals. Pass.

MIA +10.5 at MIN
What if the Dolphins do not score? This is an ugly slate. I do not particularly like taking or laying the points here either. Ugh, I do have to pick five games against the spread.

KC -4.5 at LVR
Pass. I am not laying more than a FG on the road with Patrick Mahomes. Yes, I know what happened last week. That might say more about the Dolphins than anything.

LAC +7 at SEA
Will the Chargers ever win a game? I kind of want to play Seattle back home against whatever is left of the Chargers. There is something about the Chargers that still scares me. Pass for now.

DEN +2.5 at SF
The Niners have so many injuries they can not even put another player on injured reserve. The Denver defense is legit, and the Broncos offense seems to be turning a corner. I really like the Broncos to play well here, mainly due to the slew of problems with Niners will encounter depth wise. Even if some of the questionable players suit up for the Niners, they will have limited depth if they are lucky. Give me the resurgent Broncos as a bet and in picks contests.

DET -3.5 at CAR
If the Panthers were not missing both starting corners, I would be all over the Panthers here. I still may find my way back home. The Detroit defense is not good as we know, and the Panthers need some positive injury news for their WR’s before I may consider coming back here. It seems like I am invested in the island night games every week. Lean Carolina.

ATL +2.5 at NO
Man, I was trying to stay away from the Saints again. The Saints will be missing one offensive line starter for sure and that affected them in the second half of last week that created immense pressure and the insanely almost impossible four turnovers in the final quarter. The Falcons might have just caught the Packers at the right time, and the Saints could be for real. This is the Hurricane Katrina homecoming game for New Orleans. Who am I kidding, Saints as a bet and in picks contests.

Here we are at the moment with four teams in for the Circa Millions. I need to keep going and improve on my 9-5-1 record!


Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

My Plays
NO -2.5
BAL -11.5
LAR -3
DEN +2.5

6 Point Teaser +240
DEN +8.5
BAL -5.5
SEA -1
BUF -1


Circa Millions Contest
NO -2.5
BAL -11.5
LAR -3
DEN +2.5

Survivor Selections
Down to one entry!
JAX (WIN)
SF (WIN)
BUF (WIN)
MIN



NFL Computer Model Picks
Platinum
JAX +2.5


Premium
IND -3.5
LAR -3
MIA +10.5
KC -4.5
DET -3.5

The Rest
PIT -2.5
NE +7
CHI -3.5
NYG +2.5
GB -3.5
TEN +11.5
HOU -3
DEN +2.5
LAC +7
ATL +2.5




NFL Computer Model
2026-2027 Season
Overall 19-29 39.85%
Platinum 2-3 40%
Premium 3-6 33.33%

My Plays
Overall 5-4 55.55%
Circa Millions Contests Record 9-5-1 64.28%
Props/Parlays/Teasers/Other 1-3 -185
Boosts 1-1 +000

NFL Week Four Thursday Night

NFL Sunday’s can be weird. In a matter of minutes I went from, “Hey I am headed for 4-0 in Circa,” all the way to, “Man I am going to be 2-2 with Denver.” The Saints committed four 4th quarter turnovers, and the Ravens could not score from the one-yard line and all the sudden I was disappointed. The Ravens ended up winning by 3 and earning a tie. A 3-1-1 week is fine, leaving me at 9-5-1 after three weeks. While it is nice keeping pace with the leaders, I am going to need some 4-1 and 5-0 weeks to make a real run at this thing.

Tonight is the spot the Steelers usually lose. Thursday night road game after a divisional win. Mike Tomlin’s group has a knack for starting slow and losing in the dumbest way possible in Cleveland. Last year it was DK Metcalf being suspended. The year before it was Jameis Winston winning in the second half snowstorm. I am completely skipping the Myles Garrett helmet rip and swing. This series always has weird things happening in Cleveland.

However, I have a different feeling. Maybe I am drinking the Mike McCarthy Kool-Aid. McCarthy was very successful on Thursday nights at his previous two coaching stops. The Steelers made multiple half-time changes last week that paid off. Not to mention changing the entire right side of the offensive line before the game. The offense looked good and the defense did just enough to win the game. Normally, I just assume this is a loss, but I am feeling a different way. However, I am staying away. I need to avoid wagering on the Steelers as this team is bad for my mental health without having a financial investment.

The computer model agrees with me and likes the Steelers as well. I hope we are both right.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

My Plays

Circa Millions Contest

Survivor Selections
Down to one entry!
JAX (WIN)
SF (WIN)
BUF (WIN)



NFL Computer Model Picks
Platinum
None


Premium


The Rest
PIT -2.5



NFL Computer Model
2026-2027 Season
Overall 19-29 39.85%
Platinum 2-3 40%
Premium 3-6 33.33%

My Plays
Overall 5-4 55.55%
Circa Millions Contests Record 9-5-1 64.28%
Props/Parlays/Teasers/Other 1-3 -185
Boosts 1-1 +000

NFL Week Three Wagers, Contest Plays, Survivor Picks and Computer Model Plays

After two weeks I always look at how I am doing when picking games with each team. I am 2-0 backing the Saints against the spread this year, but then I am 0-2 backing the Bucs. Part of being good at handicapping is being able to change your mind and adapt on the fly. Having said that, most teams do regress to the mean ATS. Yes, there is always one team that outshines their perception and ends 13-4 ATS. Seattle was that team last year, if you figure out who that will be this year you should take advantage.

SEA -7 at WAS
I am staying away from Washington in this spot as a home dog. Remember when we could just bet on home dogs and print money. That has ended and I am afraid of attacking teams playing Seattle now. Pass.

CIN -3.5 at PIT
I know what is the correct side here, but nope. I will not back my Steelers until I see it with my own eyes. The signs are all there. Divisional home dog, against an offense that was supposed to be good but has been average. Steelers’ defense is elite, that is for sure, but the offense is obsolete. Lean Pittsburgh, but no chance.

NYJ +6.5 at DET
The Lions offensive line continues to struggle and the defense is awful. The coaching advantage here is too large to even quantify. The Jets are 2-0 ATS and this look ahead line was around 9.5. Despite the line moving towards the Jets, I lean Detroit here. This should be a Lions offense gets it going at home game, but I am passing.

TEN +2.5 at NYG
God, this game may take place in massive rainstorms and wind. I want to mention that if you are playing in the DK picks contest, this line is set to TEN +6.5. Pass everywhere except in the DK picks contest.

NE +3 at JAX
I am backing the Jags here back home. The year from hell appears on the horizon for the Patriots. No AJ Brown, another offensive lineman broke his leg last week, the secondary continues mount up with injuries. The Jags looked strong to start in Denver and then faded and lost a close game. Playing in the south early in the season is always more difficult. Provided the Jags offensive line can hold up and protect Trevor Lawrence, the Jags offense should get going here. Drake Maye has struggled with turnovers, and I think that continues here. Jags -3 as a bet and in picks contests.

KC -10.5 at MIA
Nope. I said it each of the last two weeks. Mahomes laying three or less, yes. Mahomes laying close to a touchdown or more, pass. This is the correct spot to back the Dolphins at home getting a bunch of points. I can not get behind backing them though, but I do understand the reasoning. Everyone has moved the ball with ease against Miami and no reason that will not continue here.

HOU -1.5 at IND
Is Nico Collins playing? The Texan’s offense looked bad without any real weapon. I suppose we have seen two teams run the ball easily against the Colts. Both of these teams being 0-2 is very interesting, considering they both played two good teams. I need to know Collins status before deciding here, but man this is a stay-away for me.

CAR -2.5 at CLE
The Panthers are road favorites for back-to-back weeks. I cannot believe I am saying this. I am leaning into backing the Browns here. Carolina has struggled to stop the run, and we know Cleveland wants to pound the rock and then throw off it. It feels insane to back the Browns in any capacity, but a home dog against an NFC South team, I am interested. Lean Browns.

LAC +7 at BUF
I am not laying the seven, nor am I interested in getting seven. The chargers are in massive trouble and will be playing with desperation. Pass for me. The Chargers may be dead in the water, but the Bills defense is not good. Lots of back door cover potential here.

MIN -1.5 at TB
I am done with TB for the moment. Pass.

ARZ +8.5 at SF
I have a soft spot for the Cardinals. I did not take them week one and I think I was disappointed in myself and ended up taking them as my fifth game last week and of course it did not work out. I do want to take them again. For some reason I just like a team with a good offense getting a ton of points. The garbage TD potential is always there. I am definitely conflating DFS results and their offense with the Cardinals being a good wager or selection in contests. Pass for me.

LV +3 at NO
We are a pro Saints blog. We fired on the Saints each of the last two weeks and were successful. I really want to fire on the saints again. I think their offense is very good and the scheme seems to have receivers open constantly. I am concerned with the Saints losing an offensive tackle and now facing the solid pass rush of the Raiders. Having said that, maybe the Raiders played the two worst teams in the NFL the last two weeks in the Dolphins and Chargers. Meanwhile, the Saints played two solid offenses in the Lions and Ravens. This is still Kirk Cousins on the road. If the Saints defense can stimy the Lions and Ravens, they certainly can slow Kirk Cousins and Tre Tucker. (I am assuming Bowers sits one more week) Saints -3 as a bet and in picks contests.

BAL -3.5 vs DAL
This it the Ravens correction game. Last week Baltimore fell apart in the second half and struggled to score and stop the Saints. Dallas has had problems in both the first two weeks with a mobile QB and with getting any kinds of stops on defense. Despite Zay Flowers sitting, I believe that the Ravens will rebound in a huge way this week. Baltimore is -3 in picks contests and was -3 when I bet them earlier this week. I still like them at -3.5.

LAR at DEN
Two weeks in and I am unsure of both these teams still. The Rams have a bunch of injuris that are very concerning. If Puka sits again this week in Denver it may be a different story for this Rams offense. Lean Denver.

PHI -4.5 at CHI
Who is playing QB for the Bears? If it is not Case Keenum, I have interest in Chicago. Pass for now.


It appears I have three games locked in for Circa Millions and need to find two more! I will Tweet out who I end up over the weekend.



Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

My Plays
BAL -3
JAX -3
NO -3

6 Point Tease +240 (DK)
SEA -1
BUF -1
CLE +8.5
DEN +8.5

Circa Millions Contest
BAL -3
JAX -3
NO -3

Survivor Selections
I have two entries in most of my survivor contests.
Entry One
PIT (WIN)
TB (LOSE)

Entry Two
JAX (WIN)
SF (WIN)
BUF



NFL Computer Model Picks
Platinum
None


Premium
LAR -2.5
SEA -7
PIT +3.5
DET -6.5

The Rest
GB -4.5
LAC +7
CLE +2.5
IND +2
MIA +10.5
TEN +3
JAX -3
SF -8.5
TB +1.5
DAL +3.5
NO -3
CHI +4.5



NFL Computer Model
2026-2027 Season
Overall 12-20 37.5%
Platinum 2-3 40%
Premium 1-4 20%

My Plays
Overall 4-3 57.14%
Circa Millions Contests Record 6-4 60%
Props/Parlays/Teasers/Other 1-2 -085
Boosts 1-1 +000

NFL Week Three Thursday Night

Sadly, we lost one of our survivor entries last week. Two weeks is a small sample size, but it is time to change our thoughts on teams. It is important to be able to say I was wrong about this team and change your mind. I was very wrong about the Bucs. I am not wrong about the Steelers. For tonight, if I was playing the game, it would be the Falcons. Yes, I know they are terrible, but the Packers losing several offensive line starters, on a line that was already terrible, is not ideal on a short week. The computer barely likes the Packers, but as I said, I lean Falcons.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

My Plays

Circa Millions Contest

Survivor Selections
I have two entries in most of my survivor contests.
Entry One
PIT (WIN)
TB (LOSE)

Entry Two
JAX (WIN)
SF (WIN)



NFL Computer Model Picks
Platinum



Premium


The Rest
GB -4.5



NFL Computer Model
2026-2027 Season
Overall 12-20 37.5%
Platinum 2-3 40%
Premium 1-4 20%

My Plays
Overall 4-3 57.14%
Circa Millions Contests Record 6-4 60%
Props/Parlays/Teasers/Other 1-2 -085
Boosts 1-1 +000

NFL Week Two Wagers, Contest Plays, Survivor Picks and Computer Model Plays

The good news is that the computer model can only get better from this point moving forward. Conversely, I ended up 3-2 in the Circa Millions contest. I had four games solidly in by last Friday. I determined the Saints, Bucs, Eagles and Steelers with the line move were in my final five. Friday night I waffled a great deal between the Cardinals and the Chiefs. Fast forward to Sunday afternoon and I was feeling a great deal of regret as I landed on the Chiefs. Fortunately, the Chiefs came in and no matter where I had landed, I would have been 3-2. There are just under 5800 people in the Circa Millions and now I am tied in 2050th with around a thousand of my friends. It is time for week two.

CAR -2.5 at ATL
If only the Falcons had a QB. The Panthers defense could not stop the run, or pass, but I can not back the Falcons and Cooper Rush. I think Bijan has a massive day but pass on playing this in a contest or as a wager.

MIN +5.5 at CHI
Carson Wentz on the road after getting multiple bailouts calls to help move the ball and beat the Packers. I think the Vikings defense makes this interesting, but I am staying away from this one as well. I hate week two.

PHI -7 at TEN
We do not make money laying a TD or more on the road. I do not care about the result and situation, but I am out. The Eagles are significantly better, but their once solid offensive line seems to be struggling at the moment. Pass on this game.

PIT +5.5 at NE
Man. Steelers bias alert. The Steelers defense should be able to dominate at times. Yet, my concern is the Steelers offense. Can we blame DK for all the issues along with the non-calls? The Steelers offensive line may have to do some shuffling, but this team only scored 13 points against a bad Falcons team. The Steelers feel like the correct side, but I can not do it. Pass, but lean Steelers.

GB -3.5 at NYJ
This is the sharp play of the week. This line has come down from 5.5 all the way to 3.5 since the look ahead last week. The Packers offensive line got exposed in an awful way. Are the Jets actually good, or did they just play the Titans las week? I understand the appeal of wanting to take a home dog here especially against a team with a shaky defense, they can not run the ball. This just feels like a sharp trap. Pass for now, but lean Jets.

CLE +8.5 at TB
Sometimes I end up with the public on a very chalky play. The Browns are terrible. Watson is horrendous. They were never in the game last week; they were not even competitive. Meanwhile the Bucs did not punt last week. Zero punts. They lost and were not good with the points either. The Bucs fumbled four times last week and lost them all. If the Bucs just continue to move the ball like they did last week and have a little more success in the redzone they should cover this number. If Baker fumbles inside the five-yard-line, so be it. I am going to add in the Florida heat always being an issue for northern teams in the season. TB -8.5 as a wager and in contests.

NO +8.5 at BAL
We did not for sure know the status of Zay Flowers. The Ravens could potentially be without two wide receivers and coming home after a huge week one road win. I may be making a huge mistake here, honestly. The Saints had an early TD taken away on a call I still do not understand, then they exploded offensively. When teams have an offense and can score, they are dangerous and dogs I want to back. The Ravens have done this in the past, laying an egg at home after big road win. Yes, different coaching staff and all, but if the Ravens are going to be this Super Bowl contender, they come out and take care of business here. If the Ravens are missing a lot from their passing attack, it should mean the Saints can focus on the running game and slow Derrick Henry. It feels like the Saints may be the team that goes 8-9 but finishes 13-4 ATS. Nothing like backing a dome team outdoors on grass when they played a first half so bad last week, I wondered if they would pick a QB in the first next year. Saints +8.5 as a bet and in picks contests.

CIN +2.5 at HOU
The Bengals defense did force turnovers last week, which was much needed in order to improve that defense and win last week. I have no idea about this game. Nico Collins may be sitting out, the Bengals being the Bengals. I want to back the Texans defense, but I cannot. Lean Houston, but pass.

JAX +2.5 at DEN
I am not going to overreact here, so I am staying away from this game as well. Pass as I have no feel at all.

LV +6.5 at LAC
Is Ladd playing? The Chargers offense fell apart as soon as Ladd got hurt. The line here is saying the Chargers are the correct side, but I can not do it. The Chargers have always been good, but not great and maybe they are falling apart. Pass.

WAS +4 at DAL
The Commanders played a lot better than I thought they would last week. The Washington defense I was convinced would be awful and it was adequate. On the other side of the ball Jayden Daniels was good, his mobility helped camouflage the porous offensive line the Commanders possess.  Dallas oddly seemed confused on defense. The Giants just physically pushed them around and then Dallas was kept off the field by the Giants dominant time of possession. I Think if the Eagles offensive line was better, they would have scored a lot more and rolled over the Commanders. This is the game the Dallas offense explodes. I think Dak has a fantastic game, as does Lamb and the drop king, George Pickens. I love a Dallas rebound performance here. Cowboys -4 as a bet and in contests.

MIA +13.5 at SF
I am not going to lie, I kind of want to play the Niners. We know these teams are not close in talent; it is just a matter of if San Fran is acclimated back to being on West Coast time. Lean SF.

SEA -3.5 at ARZ
Drew Locke is laying 3.5 on the road, in the year 2026. No, this is not a CFL line. I said last week, Arizona has weapons and can score. But this will be a real test against the Seahawks defense. What can we make of the Patriots not taking advantage of the Seattle secondaries injury issues? Do we blame a vanilla game plan, Drake Maye? I very much want to back the home divisional dog here but am waiting. Lean Arizona but pass for now.

IND +6.5 at KC
I feel like I got the Chiefs correct during week one. I am good to take a break from backing or attacking them. The old path though was to take the dog when Patrick Mahomes is giving more than three points. Both teams should regress back to the middle a little this week. Lean Colts, but I am not excited to go after either side. Pass.

NYG +7 at LAR
This is a get right spot for the Rams, but I am passing. I want to see it from the Rams first. I assume we can chalk up last week to the awful preparation and travel plans. Maybe the Giants are for real, but I am not buying it yet. If the G-Men can win here, everyone will be buying in. Lean Rams, pass for now.



So here we are, with three game set for Circa Millions and two more to go. I will post my updated plays on Twitter/X later this weekend.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

My Plays
3 Team Parlay +115 (DK)
Buff -1.5 (WIN)
PITT ML (WIN)
MIA (Hurricanes) -6.5

TB -8 (Fanatics)
NO +8.5
DAL -4

3 Team 6-Point Tease +140 (DK)
TB -2.5
PHI -1
LAR -1

Circa Millions Contest
TB -8.5
NO +8.5
DAL -4

Survivor Selections
I have two entries in most of my survivor contests.
Entry One
PIT (WIN)
TB

Entry Two
JAX (WIN)
SF



NFL Computer Model Picks
Platinum
HOU -2.5
IND +6.5
LAR -7


Premium
GB -3.5
NO +8.5

The Rest
DET +5.5
ATL +2.5
MIN +5.5
PHI -7
PIT +5.5
CLE +8.5
JAX +2.5
LAC -6.5
WAS +4
SEA -3.5
MIA +13.5



NFL Computer Model
2026-2027 Season
Overall 6-10 37.5%
Platinum 0-2 0%
Premium 0-3 0%

My Plays
Overall 2-2 50%
Circa Millions Contests Record 3-2 60%
Props/Parlays/Teasers/Other 0-1 -100
Boosts 1-1 +000

NFL Week Two Thursday Night

We have a super fun Thursday night game. My Pitt Panthers are hosting Syracuse! I know you thought I was going to talk about the NFL. This is a great game of two good teams, with solid offenses opening up the Bills new stadium. I think Detroit’s defense is awful and still believe that. If I was playing this game, it would be on the Buffalo side.

My Plays
3 Team Parlay +115 (DK)
Buff -1.5
PITT ML
MIA (Hurricanes) -6.5
Pitt’s offense has been very good, especially if you consider the monsoon they played in last week against UCF. Syracuse turned it over three times last week and missed some big field goals. Kicking at Heinz (Yes, that is what I am calling it), is a little more difficult than being in a dome.  Miami is playing a team that gave up 36 points to Purdue. I think Miami’s offense might be slightly better.  I think Josh Allen and the Bills offense continue to score a bunch of points and get a win to open their new stadium. I am not sure the Lions offense can keep pace with the Bills. The computer model likes the Lions though.

I want to mention that Fanatics has a boost of Gibbs and Cook to rush for 60+ at +100. That should be around -130 in an SGP. Their props are Gibbs 87.5 and Cook 79.5. My max bet is very small, maybe yours is higher? After all most people got the free money from FD last week. I have added my recommended boosts record to the bottom, with all the other records.

Tomorrow, a full breakdown of all the games! Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

Circa Millions Contest

Survivor Selections
I have two entries in most of my survivor contests.
Entry One
PIT (WIN)


Entry Two
JAX (WIN)

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

NFL Computer Model Picks
Platinum


Premium


The Rest
DET +5.5


NFL Computer Model
2026-2027 Season
Overall 6-10 37.5%
Platinum 0-2 0%
Premium 0-3 0%

My Plays
Overall 2-2 50%
Circa Millions Contests Record 3-2 60%
Props/Parlays/Teasers/Other 0-1 -100
Boosts 1-0 +100

NFL Week One Wagers, Contest Plays, Survivor Picks and Computer Model Plays

We did it everyone. We made it to the first NFL weekend. We must treasure these days. We get 18 of them a year when there are 10+ NFL games from 1 PM until close to midnight. I will formulate these posts in a specific manner. I will go game by game and let you know if I took this team in contests or just bet on them. Please be aware that contests lines are frozen during the week at some point and that can create some advantageous situations.

I will also give out my survivor pick and make a large list of what the computer model likes. Without further ado, on to the games.

TB +3.5 at CIN
The Bengals have attempted to improve their defense to match their stellar offense. Yet, the Bengals have not really addressed their offensive line issues. The Bucs seemed like a team in flux. Unhappy star DT. Unhappy star QB. The team felt like this may be a transition year, with perhaps a lame duck coach. The Bucs are finally healthy, they resigned Vita Vea. They resigned Baker Mayfield. I figured the Bucs may be playing out the last season of their contracts and then headed for a new coach and perhaps a rebuild. Instead, they are running it back and taking another shot some youthful additions on both sides of the ball. Week one is always about leaning on your preconceived notions about a team. I have heard the hype on the Bengals every year, but it never comes to fruition. Until the Bengals actually block and play defense, I will remain skeptical. The Bucs can easily win this game. TB +3.5 as a bet and in picks contests.

NO +7 at DET
Speaking of teams with a shaky offensive line and a bad defense, welcome the Detroit Lions! I believe the Lions window has closed. Like I said, week one is when you must trust your priors on a team. I think the Lions had their opportunity and could not come through. The division is significantly better and the Lions as I said have given me doubts on both lines. Yes, I know Aiden Hutchinson exists. Part of my refocusing and past success has been focusing on pass rush and protection. I think I got away from that a little in the last few years, and I did not consider or emphasize it enough when making selections. The Saints closed strongly last year, albeit against a weak schedule. Maybe I believe in Kellen Moore’s ability to generate points in domes. I think the Saints are able to move the ball against Detroit and make this game a lot closer than the spread would indicate. Saints +7 as a bet and in picks contests.


NYJ +1.5 at TEN
Six weeks ago when I first started to breakdown games, I had the Titans circled in week one. The story line makes sense. Robert Salah, defensive genius, against his former team with Geno Smith on the road. Yet, I have done a complete 180. The Jets did go out and spend on defense. The Jets fired many assistant coaches and are trying something different after last years disaster. Meanwhile, the Titans offensive line is mediocre at best. I assume the Titans defense must improve, but I am passing on all of this. I think the Jets are a fine teaser leg if you take them to +7.5, but no need to take them here.

BAL -3.5 at IND
I am not sure what to make of the Ravens. Lamar has slowly started to run less. The Ravens offense is awful when he just stays in the pocket. Part of me believes the Ravens window has also closed, or maybe a new coach will invigorate this franchise. Everything changed for the Colts when Daniel Jones got hurt last year. Now, they rely on him to be ready to go this quickly after tearing his Achilles. I am not a big fan of laying points on the road, but I am also not interested in backing the Colts. I am happy to wait and watch both these teams this weekend. Pass.

ATL +4.5 at PIT
Yes, I know I can be biased with my Steelers. This line has moved at least a point in a few spots with the news Tua got hurt throwing a pass yesterday. Cooper Rush may be in line to start for the Falcons and he was dreadful for the Ravens last year. I mentioned a few posts ago, I bet the Steelers -3. I am happy to let that bet ride with some great closing line value. The real question is, will I fire on the Steelers in picks contests? Yes, the contests lines are -3.5. However, you could argue that even at -5.5, the Steelers number provides value, but it does not cross any major key numbers. (Yes, 4 is important, but not as meaningful as 3 or 7) Do you believe me? Do you think I can stay away? From a football perspective, the Steelers front seven should dominate the Falcons offensive line. I have concerns about the Steelers offensive line, but the Falcons only two pass rushers being out due to injury and suspension should all Aaron Rodgers to have time to throw downfield. Steelers -3 as a previous bet and I would happily lay -4. I am unsure about the contests at this time.

CHI -3 at CAR
This is the Admiral Akbar game of the week. The world is on the Bears. All the tickets, all the money, all of the public loves the Bears and their high-powered offense. Yet, the line remains the same. Yes, it was -2.5 in some spots, but it appears the books are more than happy to take all the money on Chicago -3. You have been warned. It’s a trap.

CLE +8.5 at JAX
Nope. I am not laying this many, nor am I interested in anything involving Deshaun Watson. Having said that, I do think playing in the south in the early parts of the season has always been a tough spot for teams. I just cannot get behind either of these teams. Pass.

BUF -1.5 at HOU
I think the Texans just have to be better offensively. The CJ Stroud can not play worse than he did down the stretch last season and into the playoffs. It is not physically possible. Yet, I am not excited to wager against Josh Allen. I know the Bills have struggled in Houston, and this is the spot of the playoff game where Allen tried to throw a 15-yard lateral late in the fourth quarter. I swear this play was lost to time, but was insane when it happened. The Texans area great teaser leg getting over two key numbers. Pass for wagers and in picks contests.

MIA +3 at LVR
This game is 3.5 in picks contests. I want to pretend this game does not exist. We have two good divisional games at 4:25, so thankfully, this will barely be on TV. Pass on these two awful teams.

GB +1.5 at MIN
This is an intriguing line. Conventional wisdom would say the Packers should be favored, but yet here we are. Micah Parsons is not back for Green Bay and will not be for several weeks. The Packers RB room is a cavalcade of guys who might all be out of the league in a year. This entire game hinges on one thing, do you believe in Kyler Murray. What the Vikings did last year with an F- from the quarterback position is remarkable. If the rest of the team stays the same and Murray gives them an average performance, they will be significantly better. I am passing on this game, but I am very curious to see how it plays out.

WAS +5 at PHI
You know how I said I was back to focusing on each team’s fronts? Yeah, this is what I am talking about. There is broad spectrum agreement that the Commanders have the worst offensive line in the league. Conversely, there is consensus that the Eagles lines on both sides of the ball are in the top five in the entire NFL. I am back the Eagles here and feel that they get pressure on Jayden Daniels, then can protect Jalen Hurts with ease. I want to see the new Eagles offense, and this should be a great spot for some big time runs and deep passes. This is the Eagles pattern, right? After a year they have a bad playoff loss, then change their OC they make the Super Bowl the next year, right? Eagles offensive and defensive line dominate this game. Eagles as a bet and in picks contests.

ARZ +9.5 at LAC
The Cardinals will be the backdoor kings with some large spreads. I am not laying this many points here, if anything I have interest in Arizona with the number. The Cardinals have too much offensive talent to not score points, but we shall ignore their defense. Pass for now.

DAL -3 at NYG
We do not lay points on the road in division. I think both teams may be better than expected. I do not have a good read on the Giants at all. I was discussing them with some Giant fan friends and admitted I have no idea what to expect. Does John Harbaugh bring a level of competency? Was John Harbaugh secretly holding the Ravens back? If Dallas did not have some injuries along the offensive line I would be more inclined to consider Dallas. Pass.

DEN +3 at KC
The old rules were simple. If Mahomes was laying three or less, you fired on Kansas City. If the Chiefs were giving more than three you stay away or sheepishly went against the best QB in the NFL. Now that the Chiefs mystique has kind of warn off, what do we do here? Denver obviously had a fantastic season last year and were a random injury, or maybe a snowstorm away from playing in the Superbowl. Despite what Denver has done and is poised to do, I have this feeling we should be on the Chiefs here.  The Chiefs added Kenneth Walker and should finally be able to run the ball consistently. I want to see if the offense can be back to where it once was. I am leaning Chiefs, but pass for now.

So here we are, I have 3.5 games in for contests picks and have made a few wagers. There is still some time before I must lock in those Circa Millions picks.

My Plays
Pitt -3
PHI -5
TB +3.5
NO +7

Circa Millions Contest
PHI -4.5
TB +3.5
NO +7

Survivor Selections
I have two entries in most of my survivor contests.
Entry One
Pittsburgh
This is taking a risk, but gives me a slightly more unique path than others.

Entry Two
JAX

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

NFL Computer Model Picks
Platinum
IND +3.5
MIA +3.5

Premium
TB +3.5
GB +1.5
PHI -5

The Rest
DET -7
NYJ +1.5
PIT -4.5
CHI -2.5
JAX -8.5
HOU +1.5
ARZ +9.5
DAL -2.5
DEN +3



NFL Computer Model
2026-2027 Season
Overall 1-1 50%
Platinum 0-0
Premium 0-0

My Plays
Overall 0-0
Circa Millions Contests Record 0-0
Props/Parlays/Teasers/Other 0-1 -100

NFL Week One Thursday Night

The computer model starts 1-0 and it is officially football season as I stayed up late watching a sloppy, weird, island game.

Tonight the computer likes the Rams -3.5. I am curious to see how the two different travel approaches play out in this game and moving forward. Our model has the spread slightly higher than the -3.5 and more in line with -4.5. I am staying away from this one as well. Playing at 10:30 AM Australia time, is weird enough, let alone all the travel plans and hype for this divisional matchup.

Tomorrow, we will have a full breakdown of every game and my thoughts. I will also reveal what games I will be taking in the Circa Millions picks contest, which still may have an overlay.


I have one random play for tonight. If you have any SGP boosts you could use them on this. I say boosts, because we know the books make the odds worse for SGP’s. This parlay on the surface should pay around +300, but on the sites, it is hovering around +200.

SF/LAR SGP +390 (Fanatics)
CMC Anytime TD
CMC 40+ Receiving Yards
CMC 4+ Receptions

Fanatics Sportsbook was kind enough to give me a 100% boost and bet up to $50. On most of the other sites, I am sure you have a much lower cap than $50 or any boost. Anyway, I will be watching and think a healthy CMC has a great start tonight. Just a little taste tonight before we have the main course Sunday.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!



NFL Computer Model
2026-2027 Season
Overall 1-0 100%
Platinum 0-0
Premium 0-0

My Plays
Overall 0-0
Circa Millions Contests Record 0-0
Props/Parlays/Teasers/Other 0-0