Week four is here! This is the week I hope I know what I think I know! Sadly, this week is marred by injuries and some abysmal games. I will do my best to find five games for the Circa Millions contest. I am currently sitting in a tie for 504th place. There is a long way to go, but this is a start we can build on!
IND -3.5 at WAS (LON)
I hate the games in Europe. Do we know each team’s travel plans? Pass for me.
NE +7 at BUF
I could not play the Pats here, so to me it is Bills or nothing. Buffalo had their let down game last week and still won and covered. I am passing here as well.
TEN +11.5 at BAL
The Titans offense is awful and the defense is not much better. We have already had the early season Ravens collapse game, this is the early season blowout game. I think the Ravens will continue to score as they have all year long and the Titans are just not capable. Baltimore as a wager and in picks contests.
LAR -3 at PHI
The Eagles offense is not good and the offensive line is significantly worse than they anticipated. Now, Jalen Hurts may be without his only remaining receiving weapon. The Rams meanwhile have been solid in every game where they did not fly across the world in a day. Last week could have easily gone their way. We have one team that struggles to score, without their best weapon now being asked to protect their QB against a very good defense. I think the Rams do more than enough here and win, provided Smith does actually sit. Rams as a bet and in contests.
JAX +2.5 at CIN
I Think the Jags are actually good. I have been skeptical of the Bengals all season long and last week allowing the Steelers offense to cook did not alleviate any of my concerns. Having said all that, this is a tough road spot in Cincinnati. This will be the best offense the Jags have faced. Pass for me.
DAL +3 at HOU
Is Nico Collins going to play? The Texans offense needs Collins so badly before I would consider them. Pass for now.
NYJ +3.5 at CHI
The Jets stack was very good to me last week in DFS. I have zero feel for this game and most of that has to deal with the Bears not naming a starting QB. Pass for now.
GB -3.5 at TB
I know nothing about the Bucs new QB. I hate both these teams and they both stink. I do not want to do anything with the game, because then I would have to watch it. Pass.
ARZ -2.5 at NYG
This line has changed the most since lines opened over the summer. The Giants continue to be devastated by injuries and the Cardinals are able to score points. I am never laying points on the road with the Cardinals. Pass.
MIA +10.5 at MIN
What if the Dolphins do not score? This is an ugly slate. I do not particularly like taking or laying the points here either. Ugh, I do have to pick five games against the spread.
KC -4.5 at LVR
Pass. I am not laying more than a FG on the road with Patrick Mahomes. Yes, I know what happened last week. That might say more about the Dolphins than anything.
LAC +7 at SEA
Will the Chargers ever win a game? I kind of want to play Seattle back home against whatever is left of the Chargers. There is something about the Chargers that still scares me. Pass for now.
DEN +2.5 at SF
The Niners have so many injuries they can not even put another player on injured reserve. The Denver defense is legit, and the Broncos offense seems to be turning a corner. I really like the Broncos to play well here, mainly due to the slew of problems with Niners will encounter depth wise. Even if some of the questionable players suit up for the Niners, they will have limited depth if they are lucky. Give me the resurgent Broncos as a bet and in picks contests.
DET -3.5 at CAR
If the Panthers were not missing both starting corners, I would be all over the Panthers here. I still may find my way back home. The Detroit defense is not good as we know, and the Panthers need some positive injury news for their WR’s before I may consider coming back here. It seems like I am invested in the island night games every week. Lean Carolina.
ATL +2.5 at NO
Man, I was trying to stay away from the Saints again. The Saints will be missing one offensive line starter for sure and that affected them in the second half of last week that created immense pressure and the insanely almost impossible four turnovers in the final quarter. The Falcons might have just caught the Packers at the right time, and the Saints could be for real. This is the Hurricane Katrina homecoming game for New Orleans. Who am I kidding, Saints as a bet and in picks contests.
Here we are at the moment with four teams in for the Circa Millions. I need to keep going and improve on my 9-5-1 record!
Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!
My Plays
NO -2.5
BAL -11.5
LAR -3
DEN +2.5
6 Point Teaser +240
DEN +8.5
BAL -5.5
SEA -1
BUF -1
Circa Millions Contest
NO -2.5
BAL -11.5
LAR -3
DEN +2.5
Survivor Selections
Down to one entry!
JAX (WIN)
SF (WIN)
BUF (WIN)
MIN
NFL Computer Model Picks
Platinum
JAX +2.5
Premium
IND -3.5
LAR -3
MIA +10.5
KC -4.5
DET -3.5
The Rest
PIT -2.5
NE +7
CHI -3.5
NYG +2.5
GB -3.5
TEN +11.5
HOU -3
DEN +2.5
LAC +7
ATL +2.5
NFL Computer Model
2026-2027 Season
Overall 19-29 39.85%
Platinum 2-3 40%
Premium 3-6 33.33%
My Plays
Overall 5-4 55.55%
Circa Millions Contests Record 9-5-1 64.28%
Props/Parlays/Teasers/Other 1-3 -185
Boosts 1-1 +000
