After two weeks I always look at how I am doing when picking games with each team. I am 2-0 backing the Saints against the spread this year, but then I am 0-2 backing the Bucs. Part of being good at handicapping is being able to change your mind and adapt on the fly. Having said that, most teams do regress to the mean ATS. Yes, there is always one team that outshines their perception and ends 13-4 ATS. Seattle was that team last year, if you figure out who that will be this year you should take advantage.
SEA -7 at WAS
I am staying away from Washington in this spot as a home dog. Remember when we could just bet on home dogs and print money. That has ended and I am afraid of attacking teams playing Seattle now. Pass.
CIN -3.5 at PIT
I know what is the correct side here, but nope. I will not back my Steelers until I see it with my own eyes. The signs are all there. Divisional home dog, against an offense that was supposed to be good but has been average. Steelers’ defense is elite, that is for sure, but the offense is obsolete. Lean Pittsburgh, but no chance.
NYJ +6.5 at DET
The Lions offensive line continues to struggle and the defense is awful. The coaching advantage here is too large to even quantify. The Jets are 2-0 ATS and this look ahead line was around 9.5. Despite the line moving towards the Jets, I lean Detroit here. This should be a Lions offense gets it going at home game, but I am passing.
TEN +2.5 at NYG
God, this game may take place in massive rainstorms and wind. I want to mention that if you are playing in the DK picks contest, this line is set to TEN +6.5. Pass everywhere except in the DK picks contest.
NE +3 at JAX
I am backing the Jags here back home. The year from hell appears on the horizon for the Patriots. No AJ Brown, another offensive lineman broke his leg last week, the secondary continues mount up with injuries. The Jags looked strong to start in Denver and then faded and lost a close game. Playing in the south early in the season is always more difficult. Provided the Jags offensive line can hold up and protect Trevor Lawrence, the Jags offense should get going here. Drake Maye has struggled with turnovers, and I think that continues here. Jags -3 as a bet and in picks contests.
KC -10.5 at MIA
Nope. I said it each of the last two weeks. Mahomes laying three or less, yes. Mahomes laying close to a touchdown or more, pass. This is the correct spot to back the Dolphins at home getting a bunch of points. I can not get behind backing them though, but I do understand the reasoning. Everyone has moved the ball with ease against Miami and no reason that will not continue here.
HOU -1.5 at IND
Is Nico Collins playing? The Texan’s offense looked bad without any real weapon. I suppose we have seen two teams run the ball easily against the Colts. Both of these teams being 0-2 is very interesting, considering they both played two good teams. I need to know Collins status before deciding here, but man this is a stay-away for me.
CAR -2.5 at CLE
The Panthers are road favorites for back-to-back weeks. I cannot believe I am saying this. I am leaning into backing the Browns here. Carolina has struggled to stop the run, and we know Cleveland wants to pound the rock and then throw off it. It feels insane to back the Browns in any capacity, but a home dog against an NFC South team, I am interested. Lean Browns.
LAC +7 at BUF
I am not laying the seven, nor am I interested in getting seven. The chargers are in massive trouble and will be playing with desperation. Pass for me. The Chargers may be dead in the water, but the Bills defense is not good. Lots of back door cover potential here.
MIN -1.5 at TB
I am done with TB for the moment. Pass.
ARZ +8.5 at SF
I have a soft spot for the Cardinals. I did not take them week one and I think I was disappointed in myself and ended up taking them as my fifth game last week and of course it did not work out. I do want to take them again. For some reason I just like a team with a good offense getting a ton of points. The garbage TD potential is always there. I am definitely conflating DFS results and their offense with the Cardinals being a good wager or selection in contests. Pass for me.
LV +3 at NO
We are a pro Saints blog. We fired on the Saints each of the last two weeks and were successful. I really want to fire on the saints again. I think their offense is very good and the scheme seems to have receivers open constantly. I am concerned with the Saints losing an offensive tackle and now facing the solid pass rush of the Raiders. Having said that, maybe the Raiders played the two worst teams in the NFL the last two weeks in the Dolphins and Chargers. Meanwhile, the Saints played two solid offenses in the Lions and Ravens. This is still Kirk Cousins on the road. If the Saints defense can stimy the Lions and Ravens, they certainly can slow Kirk Cousins and Tre Tucker. (I am assuming Bowers sits one more week) Saints -3 as a bet and in picks contests.
BAL -3.5 vs DAL
This it the Ravens correction game. Last week Baltimore fell apart in the second half and struggled to score and stop the Saints. Dallas has had problems in both the first two weeks with a mobile QB and with getting any kinds of stops on defense. Despite Zay Flowers sitting, I believe that the Ravens will rebound in a huge way this week. Baltimore is -3 in picks contests and was -3 when I bet them earlier this week. I still like them at -3.5.
LAR at DEN
Two weeks in and I am unsure of both these teams still. The Rams have a bunch of injuris that are very concerning. If Puka sits again this week in Denver it may be a different story for this Rams offense. Lean Denver.
PHI -4.5 at CHI
Who is playing QB for the Bears? If it is not Case Keenum, I have interest in Chicago. Pass for now.
It appears I have three games locked in for Circa Millions and need to find two more! I will Tweet out who I end up over the weekend.
Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!
My Plays
BAL -3
JAX -3
NO -3
6 Point Tease +240 (DK)
SEA -1
BUF -1
CLE +8.5
DEN +8.5
Circa Millions Contest
BAL -3
JAX -3
NO -3
Survivor Selections
I have two entries in most of my survivor contests.
Entry One
PIT (WIN)
TB (LOSE)
Entry Two
JAX (WIN)
SF (WIN)
BUF
NFL Computer Model Picks
Platinum
None
Premium
LAR -2.5
SEA -7
PIT +3.5
DET -6.5
The Rest
GB -4.5
LAC +7
CLE +2.5
IND +2
MIA +10.5
TEN +3
JAX -3
SF -8.5
TB +1.5
DAL +3.5
NO -3
CHI +4.5
NFL Computer Model
2026-2027 Season
Overall 12-20 37.5%
Platinum 2-3 40%
Premium 1-4 20%
My Plays
Overall 4-3 57.14%
Circa Millions Contests Record 6-4 60%
Props/Parlays/Teasers/Other 1-2 -085
Boosts 1-1 +000
