The goal is to keep griding out 3-2 every week in picks contests. I am sitting at 16-9 at this point and that is a fantastic pace I would be happy to keep. Last week was the revenge of the dog and after Thursday night, we have had another larger dog win outright. There are more ugly dogs this week as well.

DEN -7.5 at NYJ (LON)
The Jets are terrible and can not stop, well anything. The Denver defense may limit the Jets from doing anything. Lean Broncos and no way I am touching the Jets here.

CLE +5.5 at PIT
Me a few weeks ago: NO MORE STEELERS! THEY ARE TERRIBLE.

Me now: So, Mike Tomlin laying points at home, this has never gone badly before.

We have seen this movie. Tomlin and the Steelers playing a team they should easily handle, at home. I normally completely stay away from this, but what a tough spot for the Browns. Rookie QB on the road making second career start coming back from London playing against an almost healthy Steelers team coming off a bye week. This is a god awful spot for the Browns in terms of rest advantage. Heavily lean Steelers, but I want to stay away.

ARZ +7 at INDY
I like the Colts. The Cardinals are closer to firing everyone than they are competing. The Colts quietly just keep scoring every single week. The Colts will score again here. I am on the Colts as a bet and in the contest at -6.5. Yes, the Colts are laying seven in real life and I am in on that number too.

DAL -3 at CAR
The professionals are on the Panthers here. With the contest number being set at +3.5 I am curious, but I am staying away for now. I continue to think that at times backing the best unit in the game, which sounds simple, could be profitable. The Cowboys offense is good, even missing lineman and Lamb it appears. Pass for me.

LAR -7.5 at BAL
Nope. I am not laying a TD on the road. Baltimore might also be completely dead until their bye week. Pass.

LAC -4.5 at MIA
The Chargers cannot protect Justin Herbert. The Dolphins have zero pass rush. I hate this game. Pass.

NE -3.5 at NO
We do not lay points on the road with bad teams coming off a huge win. Pass on this game.

SEA -1.5 at JAX
This line keeps flipping around as both have been favored throughout the week. Seattle has plenty of injuries and the Jags of course are coming off a huge win last week. This feels like an obvious let-down spot, but the Jags defense just keeps on forcing turnovers. Pass until we find out more about the Seattle injuries.

TEN +4.5 at LVR
Fire this game into the sun.

CIN +14 at GB
I am very interested in the Packers. The Bengals have an awful offensive line and can not protect at all. Now, they insert a statue at the QB position. I think the Packers coming off a bye week have a very nice get right spot. The Packers still scored 40 and did not win in their last game. I like Green Bay -14, but in contests it is sitting at -14.5. I am pausing for now, but this could be the 5^th game when I am struggling to find one this weekend.

SF +3 at TB
Too many injuries at the moment. Pass for now.

DET +2.5 at KC
I love the Chiefs here. Detroit looks great against bad defenses and the Chiefs will be much better than what they have shown. Kansas City has fixed their offense, and the Lions have a slew of defensive injuries. KC as a bet and in picks contests.

BUF -4.5 at ATL
I want to take the home dog here, but going against Josh Allen coming off a loss feels wrong. I am passing for now.

CHI +4.5 at WAS
The Bears coming off a bye week get a shot at revenge for last year’s Hail Mary game. You can throw the ball down the field on the Commanders, but the Bears may not be able to protect. Lean Washington due to their new ability to run the ball. Pass for now.

This is where I am at the moment and who knows what news may hit that changes my plans in contests. As of now, I have one team in for sure and lots of work to do!

I will post my choices on Twitter/X Sunday morning and may make a video for TikTok and YouTube like I did a few times last year.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

My Plays
IND -7
KC -2.5
GB -14


Contest Picks
IND -6.5
KC -1.5

Computer Model Plays
Platinum
DEN -7
WAS -4.5

Premium
IND -7
LAR -7.5
SF +3
DET +2.5

Regular Plays
PHI -7
LAC -4.5
NE -3.5
PIT -6
DAL -3
SEA +1
TEN +4
GB -14
BUF -4.5

NFL Computer Model
2025-2026 Season
Overall 42-37 53.16%
Platinum 1-2 33.33%
Premium 11-5 68.75%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 12-7 63.15%

My Plays
Overall 6-5 54.54%
Draft Kings Contest Record 16-9 64%
Props/Parlays/Teasers/Other 2-2 50% +000

It hurts losing a contest play on Thursday. It is almost impossible to not select a game in which the line has changed and crossed key numbers. Going from -5.5 all the way to -8.5 seems like a pretty easy decision. I do not always take these situations though. I will be taking Houston +3.5 in the Draft Kings contest Sunday. That is a lock to select, and I assume everyone else does the exact same thing.

MIN -4.5 at CLE (LON)
Oh boy, we have a rookie QB against a Brian Flores defense. However, we have Carson Wentz and a beat up offensive line against the Browns defense. I think the best unit on the field will be the Browns defense. Lean Cleveland but pass for now.

DEN +3.5 at PHI
The Eagles have been bad yet remain 4-0. Denver would be a Super Bowl contender if they had much better QB play. I do not feel right laying points with the Eagles at this time. I need to see how the Philly offensive line holds up against the Denver defense. Lean Denver, but pass for now>

LVR +7 at IND
Geno and the Raiders are not good. Last week should have been an easy win with how well they ran the ball against Chicago, but Gen had other ideas. I know the Colts secondary is banged up, I just cannot be on the Raiders for the fourth time this year in five weeks. I am 2-1 on Raiders selections at this point and I think I may abstain.

NYG +1.5 at NO
Dart was not great throwing the ball last week, and not he has lost his best WR. I know the Saints are bad and Spencer Rattler has never won a game he has started. I think the Saints defense is good enough to make this interesting. Last week Omario Hampton was a weapon especially in the passing game, could this be an Alvin Kamara game? Lean NO, but nothing at this point.

DAL -2.5 at NYJ
Everyone scores on the Jets. If there is one thing Dallas can do it is score. This entire game might be defense optional. Pass on this game, but should be fun for DFS purposes.

HOU -2.5 at BAL
I am on the Texans +3.5 in contests. There is no chance I am laying points on the road with the Texans. Oddly, out model does have Houston grading out as a slight favorite. I think both teams are bad, but the Ravens have the coaching edge. Right? I mean I thought they did, but their defense has been horrendous.

MIA -1.5 at CAR
Does anyone want to watch this game? I am not touching this at all.


TEN +7.5 at ARZ
I am using Arizona in survivor this week. I elected to save the Rams because they host the Saints in a few weeks. Dodged a bullet there. I think everyone agrees the Cardinals should not be this large of favorite against anyone. However, I am sure you saw the same stat that I did that the Titans are 3-16 ATS under Brian Callahan. You know how Tom Brady used to brake models and do things never scene before, well the Titans continue to do just that in negative ways. I am not playing the Titans, nor the Cardinals. Pass.

TB +3 at SEA
This number is 3.5 in contests. We have a slow starting Bucs team that is not healthy on the road against a team with a rest advantage. No Bucky Irving, no Mike Evans and the offensive line is still banged up. The Bucs held the Eagles to ZERO passing yards in the second half last week and lost. I like betting on the Seahawk defense here and Sam Darnold not making a big mistake. Heavily lean Seattle in contests, I bet Seattle -3 (-115) over on Draft Kings Sportsbook.  

DET -10.5 at CIN
The Bengals are terrible. Everyone knows this team is dead in the water. I am not laying 10+ points on the road ever. Pass. Why do I want to stack the Bengals in DFS. Send help.

WAS +2.5 at LAC
I am not completely sure what to make of this game. Coming back home after a bad road loss, can be a great spot to back a good team. The Chargers though lost their other great OT. I do not have a good feel here at all. Pass.

NE +8.5 at BUF
The computer loves the Patriots. I was leaning Buffalo. That combo means I am passing.

KC -3.5 at JAX
I have no idea if the Jags are good. Last week Brock Purdy threw them the ball. The Jags could still not beat the Bengals a few weeks ago and I cannot get that out of my head. I like the Chiefs defense more than any other unit in this game. Pass.

This is where I am at the moment and who knows what news may hit that changes my plans in contests. As of now, I have one team in for sure and lots of work to do!

I will post my choices on Twitter/X Sunday morning and may make a video for TikTok and YouTube like I did a few times last year.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

My Plays
SEA -3


Contest Picks
LAR -5.5
HOU +3.5


Survivor
I am splitting my entries again to give me some different paths. I am using Arizona this week, as this is the only time they are really usable. I hate it.

 
Entry 1
Philly (WIN Week 1)
Baltimore (WIN Week 2)
Seattle (WIN Week 3)
Denver (WIN Week 4)
Arizona (Week 5)

Entry 2
Denver (WIN Week 1)
Detroit (WIN Week 2)
Seattle (WIN Week 3)
Houston (WIN Week 4)
Arizona (Week 5)

Computer Model Plays
Platinum


Premium
NE +8.5

Regular Plays
SF +8.5
MIN -4.5
IND -7
NYG +1.5
DAL -2.5
DEN +3.5
MIA -1.5
HOU -2.5
TEN +7.5
TB +3.5
DET -10.5
WAS +2.5
KC -3.5

NFL Computer Model
2025-2026 Season
Overall 32-33 49.23%
Platinum 1-2 33.33%
Premium 10-5 66.66%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 11-7 61.11%

My Plays
Overall 6-4 60%
Draft Kings Contest Record 13-7 65%
Props/Parlays/Teasers/Other 2-1 66.66% +100

Finally, we are back to normalcy. I have mentioned this before, but there is something about the rhythm of life and how the years move forward that make me happy, and frankly sad. Watching your kids grow up is full of joy, but there is some longing for how they once were when they were younger. I have always used the start of the NFL as a marker of some kind, like an unofficial real start to this year. It is not a coincidence that this matches up with school starting, looking at first day pictures and reminiscing about previous first days of school and how my children have changed and grown over the years.

I have been going to Steeler games with my dad since I was six years old. I am now 43. That is 37 years of new hope, beginnings and a yearly reminder that time continues to pass. When Sunday at 1 P.M. rolls around, that just feels natural to me. We get 18 Sundays every year, where we can immerse ourselves in the NFL. I know some people like college football, but there is nothing like the NFL. Much like the passage of time, it is consistent, and I know that at 1, 4:25 and then at 8:20 there are going to be games. Maybe I just crave having a constant every week, when life can be very unpredictable. Either way, as I age, it is something to look forward to and be excited about much in the same way it was when I was a child.

Besides discussing how having the NFL back makes me feel, it is also an opportunity to make some money. A reminder that lines in contests are stagnant and will not change after they are posted. I will mention what number I bet teams at and what numbers I have in contests. Anyway, here we go!

KC -3 at LAC (Brazil)
This is Brazil (Dom Toretto voice from Fast Five)! Anytime the NFL can have a game in a location that had a horrendous field that hurt Jordan Love last year, you just have to run it back. This is being played at a different location though. The only way the Chargers could avoid having a home game with more visiting fans was to leave the continent. This year feels like the last revenge season for the Chiefs. I am not a fan of the Chargers at all. The Chargers always seem to hang around and lose these games. I know in the past it made a ton of sense to take the Chargers when they were getting 5+ against the Chiefs, but not at this number. Lean KC, but pass. The bet I actually like the best I have made on this game is Isiah Pacheco anytime TD at +165. Pass on the game.

NYG +5.5 at WAS
Washington can not replicate their 4^th down success from last year, right? Regression has to hit them. This line has slowly dropped and as you can imagine the public is not lining up to wager on Russell Wilson. The Giants played the Commanders tough in both games last year, for whatever that is worth. I am going to stay away. I want to see the Giants pass rush against an extremely mobile QB.

CIN -5.5 at CLE
We now have a track record of the Bengals starting extremely slowly. To remedy this situation, the Bengals played their starter more in the preseason. Will that work? Will it matter? Can they even block for Joe Burrow? The expectations are all over the place for Cincinnati. Mine are pretty low. They have no defense, and they struggle to block. We watched a team win the Super Bowl on the strength of their offensive and defensive line. My model makes this CIN -3. I am just avoiding talking about the Browns offense in this spot. I am leaning toward the home divisional dog here. If I bet Jameis at home against the Ravens last year, I can certainly get behind Joe Flacco here. I am on CLE +5.5 as a bet and in contests.

PIT -3 at NYJ
Wait, he is not going to lay points with Mike Tomlin on the road, is he? If I had the Kool-Aid man suit, I would wear it and break through the wall saying “OH YEAHHHHHH!” I know my team and I know we should not be laying points on the road normally. However, how do the Jets block, move the ball and have anything that resembles a passing game. Yes, Garrett Wilson is good, but the Steelers secondary is going to be much improved. I believe in the Steelers defense. I believe in the Steelers offensive line. I believe the Jets are going to be very bad. If the Steelers get a lead, how will the Jets score when Just Fields must throw? Is he going to be looking to Allen Lazard or Mason Taylor? This is more of a bet against the Jets than on the Steelers. My model has the Steelers just over a 5-point favorite. I am on the Steelers -3 as a bet and -2.5 in picks contests.

ARZ -6.5 at NO
I would not feel comfortable laying this many points on the road with the Cardinals. I know what the correct side is here, and my model agrees, but man this Saints team is not good. They are going to win a game at some point this year and it may be this weekend. I am not sure I have the gumption to take the Saints. Maybe the Cardinals do take the next step and become a force in the NFC West. I am going to wait and see for now. Lean Saints, but pass for now.

TB -1.5 at ATL
 This a super fun DFS game, but I have zero clue in terms of betting. The computer likes TB a little, but them missing their starting LT is a problem. I will have this on a TV because of a Baker stack but pass in terms of contests and wagers.

CAR +3.5 at JAX
I really want to take the Panthers here. Perhaps the Jags should not be favored by more than three over anyone. There are too many unknowns in this game between the Panthers defense, and whatever the Jags do with Liam Cohen and Travis Hunter. Pass on the game, but I do like a completely under-the-radar stack with Bryce Young.

MIA +1.5 at INDY
I am not backing Daniel Jones as a favorite, nor do I feel comfortable taking the fading Dolphins. I will say the Dolphins normally start strong, then fall apart, so there is some history there, not to mention the Miami offense on turf has been fun to watch. A few years ago, they opened at the Chargers and the game was a track meet. Pass on this game though.

LVR +2.5 at NE             
Everyone seems to love the Patriots this year. Yes, they have a weak schedule and should get the “new coach bump.” However, this team was not good last year and even if adding a proven NFL head coach adds a few wins, that is not enough to compete in the AFC. I am leaning toward the Raiders here, but that also feels like I am forcing it. The computer makes the Patriots a slight favorite here. Lean Raiders.

TEN +8.5 at DEN
I am not laying, nor taking the points here. I do have Denver in some survivor contests. I need to see the new-look Titans in this one. I wish this was an afternoon game. Pass for me.

SF -1.5 at SEA
CMC popping up on the injury report is alarming and I hope we wake up Sunday morning to that Adam Schefter news dump of CMC is a full go. Computer here has SF -2, so no real advantage either way on the number. I am passing for now, but if we get news on a healthy CMC, I lean Niners. Road favorites, ugh.

DET +2.5 at GB
This line has moved after the Parsons trade. The Lions are a very public dog. I am concerned about the Packers WR room, but not ready to anoint them as the leaders of this division yet. You need to kill the king to become the king. Lean Detroit.

HOU +3 at LAR
I love the Rams. I believe Matthew Stafford is going to be fine, for now. The Rams offensive line is actually healthy, and they need to hold up against the Texan’s pass rush. The Rams pushed the Eagles to the limit last year and their defense has been solid. I am so out on Houston this year. They have one proven WR for week one since Christian Kirk is out. Their offensive line was bad last year and looks to be even worse now. I am on the Rams -3 and they are -2.5 in contests.

BAL -1.5 at BUF
The Bills being a home dog is very surprising. I am interested in watching this game, but not betting it at all. Pass.

MIN -1.5 at CHI
Another home prime time dog. I was all about the Bears here, but the model really prefers the Vikings. That might be enough to push me away from this game. I am struggling to get to five games for contest though. I lean Chicago, computer is on Vikings. Pass for now.

Here we are with three games in for contests and two more to select. I will post my choices on Twitter/X Sunday morning and may make a video for TikTok and YouTube like I did a few times last year.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

My Plays and Contest Picks
CLE +5.5
PIT -3 (-2.5 Contests)
LAR -3 (-2.5 Contests)

Pacheco Anytime TD +165 (Multiple sites)

Survivor
Philly (I am splitting my entries on the Eagles and Broncos this week) WIN
Denver

Computer Model Plays
Platinum
NONE

Premium
PIT -3
DET +2.5
MIN -1.5

Regular Plays
LAC +3
TB -1.5
CLE +5.5
MIA +1
LVR +2.5
NO +6.5
WAS -5.5
CAR +3.5
DEN -8.5
SF -1.5
DET +2.5
HOU +3
BUF +1.5

NFL Computer Model
2025-2026 Season
Overall  0-1 0%
Platinum 0-0 0%
Premium 0-0 0%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 0-0 0%

My Plays
Overall 0-0 0%
Draft Kings Contest Record 0-0 0%