9/11/21- I am happy to go 1-0-1 in college today and have moved on to tomorrow. I have updated and added the odds boosts for every site. I have also included my wagers. I will tweet out my plays for my picks contests Sunday before kickoff!

9/10/21- Last night was the appetizer Sunday is the main course. I am so excited! I have updated all the odds boosts and placed all of our computer model plays below as well. Sunday at 1 PM cannot get here soon enough!

The sites have been pretty slow to post any other odds boosts for this weekend in the NFL. I will update and post on Saturday after they are revealed, if there are any.  I will also update with my wagers and what I am putting into my picks contest this weekend!

9/9/21-Week One is upon us. While all of our wagers and computer model picks will be listed later in the week, here is a little background. We breakdown our computer model into three categories. The highest is platinum. The next level is Premium. The remaining are just regular plays. Our recommendations is to play the platinum and premium plays. Yet, you can look at our data for the last few years and see that if you bet every single game based upon the computer model, you would be profitable. We started tracking our data with the 2015 season and began posting three season ago. Of course, during the 2019 season our plays were behind a pay wall for a large portion of the season. Just to give you an idea, this is how we finished last season.

Overall 147-111 56.97%
Platinum 2-5 28.57%
Premium 24-15 61.54%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 26-20 56.52%

I said we have data for the last few season and here it is. The breakeven point for betting assuming -110 is 52.4%. As you can see, we are well above that in totality. If you were to bet $110 on every single NFL using our model, last year you would have won $14,700 on winners and lost $12,210 on losers, for a net return of $2,490.

Computer Model Record
2015-2020
Overall 797-672 54.25%
Premium 178-146 54.93%
Platinum 31-30 51.66%

Overall
2015 132-132 50%
2016 127-94 57.47%
2017 108-99 52.17%
2018 141-118 54.44%
2019 142-118 54.62%
2020 147-111 56.97%

Premium
2015 43-37 53.75%
2016 30-24 55.56%
2017 18-21 46.15%
2018 32-21 60.38%
2019 31-28 52.54%
2020 24-15 61.54%

Platinum
2015 2-1 66.67%
2016 4-4 50%
2017 6-4 60%
2018 6-11 35.29%
2019 11-5 68.75%
2020 2-5 28.57%

Computer Model Plays
Platinum
Nothing for this week

Premium
HOU +3
MIA +3

Regular Plays
PITT +6.5
WFT -1
CAR -5
ARZ +3
ATL -3
IND +3
CIN +3
SF -7.5
KC -6
NYG +3
NO +4
CHI +7.5
BAL -4.5

Football Odds Boost You Should Consider Betting

Fan Duel
Risk free $25 wager. If it loses, you get $25 in site credit back. I tried to hit a home run with this in college by taking the Minnesota money line; I will do the same and take a live dog here as well.

$5 in bonus credits for every win a team has during the year, if you bet $50+ on them to win the Super Bowl. If your team wins 10 games, you can max this out and make it a few wager essentially. I think taking a team with a higher win total obviously, makes sense to make this “free,” but does negate any value or hedge equity for later in the season as those teams have shorter odds to win the title. 

Mostert to score 2+ TD’s +600
If you listened to the podcast or watched the video I did over at Numberball.com, you know how I feel about him. I am in on this. Niners will run for a ton of yards tomorrow.

PA Super Boost PHI +3.5 +125
I was on the Eagles before this boost. I assume it is for PA players only. I think the healthy Eagles offensive line allows them to score a lot. I do not believe in the Falcons. I am in.

Draft Kings
20% Boost on every single Sunday game. Honestly, if you are betting Sunday and the line is the same, you should be betting here to get the boost. That is my plan.

DK continues to offer their Wild Card Promotion. You get a new one at different levels of betting or DFS play. There are up to five in total with the top end being reached when you get to $2500 in sports betting or DFS play before week two of the NFL season. Make you go to promos and opt in though.

Risk free same game parlay for the NFL. Just like with most of these opt in is required. Make sure to do so. Normally Fan Duel does this only up to $10, but here DK is giving you a refund up to $25. These are things you have to try to take advantage of!

All of the DK boosts for Sunday are meh. Pass on those boosts and just use the 20% on every game you are into.

Barstool Sportsbook
Chicago Bears +7.5 at +100. The more people that bet it the larger the multiplier becomes. I believe the max is bet $5 to win $50 if the Bears cover. I get what Barstool is trying to do here, and yes, this is a nice boost, but it is nowhere near the free money that Draft Kings is giving out. Should you play this, of course. It is a very large boost. The optimal play here is to play this for max bet of $5, then turn around and bet $6 on the Rams -7.5. No matter what you turn a profit, although it is only one dollar if the Rams cover, it is much more if the Bears to keep it close.

Fox Bet
SF/BUF/SEA to all win +250
This should pay +176 so it is a boost. I think San Fran is going to be very chalky especially in money line parlays and that makes a lot of sense to me. Buffalo should beat my Steelers, but the Steelers are going to be a frisky dog. Seattle being on the road in Indy against a Colts team that has been in flux seems like a trap. I am avoiding just because of the Seahawks. Pass for me.

Jalen Hurts to throw 1+ TD passes +100
My max bet is so small, I hope yours is larger. I am obviously in. I like the Eagles tomorrow so of course I like this one.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

NFL
Pitt +6.5
There is value on the Steelers. This line feels inflated to me since everyone loves Buffalo and the Steelers have been told they are supposed to be bad. They will not be. Steelers make sure this is a very close game.

PHI +3.5
I am very bullish on the Eagles in the early season. There are plenty of questions, but I do like them this Sunday.

LVR +4.5
Home dog getting points to open a new stadium at night. Baltimore has injury issues as you know. This feels like Baltimore has to squeak past the Raiders in order to win.

SF/LAR/KC ML Parlay +141 (FOX)
We are living in a world where the Chiefs in week one are the smallest favorite of these three and appear to be the most in jeopardy. The Browns could not beat a backup QB in the playoffs, they are not winning here.

College Football
Nothing at this time.

Let’s Get Weird
Nothing at this time.

NFL
2021-2022
Computer Model
Overall 0-1 0%
Platinum 0-0 0%
Premium 0-0 0%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 0-0 0%

Our Plays
Overall 0-0 0%
NFL Odds Boosts 1-1 50% +000

College Football
Overall 2-1 66.66%
College Odds Boosts 1-0 +100

Last night was the appetizer Sunday is the main course. I am so excited! I have updated all the odds boosts and placed all of our computer model plays below as well. Sunday at 1 PM cannot get here soon enough!

The sites have been pretty slow to post any other odds boosts for this weekend in the NFL. I will update and post on Saturday after they are revealed, if there are any.  I will also update with my wagers and what I am putting into my picks contest this weekend!

9/9/21-Week One is upon us. While all of our wagers and computer model picks will be listed later in the week, here is a little background. We breakdown our computer model into three categories. The highest is platinum. The next level is Premium. The remaining are just regular plays. Our recommendations is to play the platinum and premium plays. Yet, you can look at our data for the last few years and see that if you bet every single game based upon the computer model, you would be profitable. We started tracking our data with the 2015 season and began posting three season ago. Of course, during the 2019 season our plays were behind a pay wall for a large portion of the season. Just to give you an idea, this is how we finished last season.

Overall 147-111 56.97%
Platinum 2-5 28.57%
Premium 24-15 61.54%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 26-20 56.52%

I said we have data for the last few season and here it is. The breakeven point for betting assuming -110 is 52.4%. As you can see, we are well above that in totality. If you were to bet $110 on every single NFL using our model, last year you would have won $14,700 on winners and lost $12,210 on losers, for a net return of $2,490.

Computer Model Record
2015-2020
Overall 797-672 54.25%
Premium 178-146 54.93%
Platinum 31-30 51.66%

Overall
2015 132-132 50%
2016 127-94 57.47%
2017 108-99 52.17%
2018 141-118 54.44%
2019 142-118 54.62%
2020 147-111 56.97%

Premium
2015 43-37 53.75%
2016 30-24 55.56%
2017 18-21 46.15%
2018 32-21 60.38%
2019 31-28 52.54%
2020 24-15 61.54%

Platinum
2015 2-1 66.67%
2016 4-4 50%
2017 6-4 60%
2018 6-11 35.29%
2019 11-5 68.75%
2020 2-5 28.57%

Computer Model Plays
Platinum
Nothing for this week

Premium
HOU +3
MIA +3

Regular Plays
PITT +6.5
WFT -1
CAR -5
ARZ +3
ATL -3
IND +3
CIN +3
SF -7.5
KC -6
NYG +3
NO +4
CHI +7.5
BAL -4.5

Football Odds Boost You Should Consider Betting

Fan Duel
Risk free $25 wager. If it loses, you get $25 in site credit back. I tried to hit a home run with this in college by taking the Minnesota money line; I will do the same and take a live dog here as well.

$5 in bonus credits for every win a team has during the year, if you bet $50+ on them to win the Super Bowl. If your team wins 10 games, you can max this out and make it a few wager essentially. I think taking a team with a higher win total obviously, makes sense to make this “free,” but does negate any value or hedge equity for later in the season as those teams have shorter odds to win the title. 

Draft Kings
20% Boost on every single Sunday game. Honestly, if you are betting Sunday and the line is the same, you should be betting here to get the boost. That is my plan.

DK continues to offer their Wild Card Promotion. You get a new one at different levels of betting or DFS play. There are up to five in total with the top end being reached when you get to $2500 in sports betting or DFS play before week two of the NFL season. Make you go to promos and opt in though.

Risk free same game parlay for the NFL. Just like with most of these opt in is required. Make sure to do so. Normally Fan Duel does this only up to $10, but here DK is giving you a refund up to $25. These are things you have to try to take advantage of!

33% Parlay Boost for college football. This must be 3+ teams and no one can be greater than -500. The Max bet is $50 here.

Barstool Sportsbook
Chicago Bears +7.5 at +100. The more people that bet it the larger the multiplier becomes. I believe the max is bet $5 to win $50 if the Bears cover. I get what Barstool is trying to do here, and yes, this is a nice boost, but it is nowhere near the free money that Draft Kings is giving out. Should you play this, of course. It is a very large boost. The optimal play here is to play this for max bet of $5, then turn around and bet $6 on the Rams -7.5. No matter what you turn a profit, although it is only one dollar if the Rams cover, it is much more if the Bears to keep it close.

Fox Bet
SF/BUF/SEA to all win +250
This should pay +176 so it is a boost. I think San Fran is going to be very chalky especially in money line parlays and that makes a lot of sense to me. Buffalo should beat my Steelers, but the Steelers are going to be a frisky dog. Seattle being on the road in Indy against a Colts team that has been in flux seems like a trap. I am avoiding just because of the Seahawks. Pass for me.

First Score of the Game to be a PSU TD +100 (PSU vs. Ball State)
My max bet is very small, but PSU is a 22-point favorite. I am in, backing the school that I hate.

Iowa/Texas/USC to all win Saturday +350
Iowa is a 4.5-point road dog in a rivalry game. Texas is -7.5 on the road in Arkansas. USC is a massive 17.5-point favorite against Stanford. This parlay should pay +296. While two of these seem solid with favorites that should win, be aware that books will try to squeeze a name in on these boosted parlays. I am passing. I am not taking a road dog in a boost like this.


Miami (Fla)/BYU/USC to all win +450
Just like above BYU is a 7.5-point dog. This is trying to lure you into the name BYU. This parlay should pay +372. Pass for me.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

NFL
SF/LAR/KC ML Parlay +141 (FOX)
We are living in a world where the Chiefs in week one are the smallest favorite of these three and appear to be the most in jeopardy. The Browns could not beat a backup QB in the playoffs, they are not winning here.

College Football
Pitt -3.5
I know, I am awaiting Pitt to break my heart and ruin my over bet on them and for them to not win the coastal. Yet, it will not happen this week. Pitt will lose as a large home favorite, not in this spot. I am in.

Northern Illinoi +7
NI got a big road win at Georgia Tech last week after going winless last year. Wyoming struggled and should have lost at home to Montana State. I am taking the home dog after their big road win.  

Let’s Get Weird
Nothing at this time.

NFL
2021-2022
Computer Model
Overall 0-1 0%
Platinum 0-0 0%
Premium 0-0 0%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 0-0 0%

Our Plays
Overall 0-0 0%
NFL Odds Boosts 1-1 50% +000

College Football
Overall 1-1 50%

Week One is upon us. While all of our wagers and computer model picks will be listed later in the week, here is a little background. We breakdown our computer model into three categories. The highest is platinum. The next level is Premium. The remaining are just regular plays. Our recommendations is to play the platinum and premium plays. Yet, you can look at our data for the last few years and see that if you bet every single game based upon the computer model, you would be profitable. We started tracking our data with the 2015 season and began posting three season ago. Of course, during the 2019 season our plays were behind a pay wall for a large portion of the season. Just to give you an idea, this is how we finished last season.

Overall 147-111 56.97%
Platinum 2-5 28.57%
Premium 24-15 61.54%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 26-20 56.52%

I said we have data for the last few season and here it is. The breakeven point for betting assuming -110 is 52.4%. As you can see, we are well above that in totality. If you were to bet $110 on every single NFL using our model, last year you would have won $14,700 on winners and lost $12,210 on losers, for a net return of $2,490.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

Computer Model Record
2015-2020
Overall 797-672 54.25%
Premium 178-146 54.93%
Platinum 31-30 51.66%

Overall
2015 132-132 50%
2016 127-94 57.47%
2017 108-99 52.17%
2018 141-118 54.44%
2019 142-118 54.62%
2020 147-111 56.97%

Premium
2015 43-37 53.75%
2016 30-24 55.56%
2017 18-21 46.15%
2018 32-21 60.38%
2019 31-28 52.54%
2020 24-15 61.54%

Platinum
2015 2-1 66.67%
2016 4-4 50%
2017 6-4 60%
2018 6-11 35.29%
2019 11-5 68.75%
2020 2-5 28.57%

Computer Model Plays
Platinum


Premium


Regular Plays
TB -8.5

Football Odds Boost You Should Consider Betting

Fan Duel
Risk free $25 wager. If it loses, you get $25 in site credit back. I tried to hit a home run with this in college by taking the Minnesota money line; I will do the same and take a live dog here as well.

$5 in bonus credits for every win a team has during the year, if you bet $50+ on them to win the Super Bowl. If your team wins 10 games, you can max this out and make it a few wager essentially. I think taking a team with a higher win total obviously, makes sense to make this “free,” but does negate any value or hedge equity for later in the season as those teams have shorter odds to win the title. 

TB -9.5 at +150 thanks to Pat McAfee. To be fair, our computer model does feel the spread should be double-digits. If you look at alternative spreads, TB at -9.5 is -110 on Draft Kings Sportsbook. This is actually pretty solid. If you are playing TB -8 or -8.5, there is a lot of value in adding a point to move up to +150. I think this is almost too good of a boost to pass up. Yes, there is a lot of risk here as the Bucs still need to cover, but I would rather lay this number at +150 then lay the -110. I am in.

Draft Kings
Has the Tampa Bay Bucs at +73 for week one of the NFL season. This max bet appears to be around $50. Go collect your free money! I am in.

DK continues to offer their Wild Card Promotion. You get a new one at different levels of betting or DFS play. There are up to five in total with the top end being reached when you get to $2500 in sports betting or DFS play before week two of the NFL season. Make you go to promos and opt in though.

Risk free same game parlay for the NFL. Just like with most of these opt in is required. Make sure to do so. Normally Fan Duel does this only up to $10, but here DK is giving you a refund up to $25. These are things you have to try to take advantage of!

Brady to throw for 300+ Yards and No INT’s +250
Brady’s pass prop is set to 300.5 yards. Brady to not throw an INT is -130. This combo should pay +233. In this case, this is such a small boost it is not worth wagering. There is also the built in blowout risk since the Bucs are larger favorites. Pass for me.

Dak to throw for 350+ Passing Yards +240
Dak’s passing prop is set to 294.5. If you look at alternate lines, Dak to throw for 350+ yards on the Fan Duel Sportsbook pays +265. As you guessed, this is an easy pass. This is your yearly reminder to always shop around and find the best line. Please have money on multiple books, so you can bet this if you want at the best price. Pass on this boost.

10+ points in first quarter -135
I am not a big fan of timed boosts. Pass.

Barstool Sportsbook
Chicago Bears +7.5 at +100. The more people that bet it the larger the multiplier becomes. I believe the max is bet $5 to win $50 if the Bears cover. I get what Barstool is trying to do here, and yes, this is a nice boost, but it is nowhere near the free money that Draft Kings is giving out. Should you play this, of course. It is a very large boost. The optimal play here is to play this for max bet of $5, then turn around and bet $6 on the Rams -7.5. No matter what you turn a profit, although it is only one dollar if the Rams cover, it is much more if the Bears to keep it close.

TB to lead after each quarter +150
Mostly, I avoid all timed wagers. There is no urgency for the Bucs to score quickly if there is one minute left in the first quarter in a tie game, or while trailing. Pass.

Lamb or Evans to score 1^st TD +515
Lamb is +1200 and Evans is +650. Usually when you have options like this I prefer to just play the players individually. If you bet $100 on this boost and hit it pays +515 for a net of +$515. Yet, if you bet them individually, while you are risking twice as much you get the added bonus of Lamb possibly hitting at +1200. If Evans scores you would win +$650 – $200 in wagers for +$450. The added ability of Lamb paying off +1200 is significantly better than this combined boost. Pass for me.

Fox Bet
TB Bucs to score at in every quarter Thursday night. This is boosted to +100. This is roughly -115 across the industry so it is a boost. The game has a high total at 52 points and the Dallas defense is bad, as we, all know. I am in on this, but not completely. My max wager is pretty small too. I know opening games teams are not always sharp and it can be a struggle, but I think the Bucs finally had an off season and may actually be better if that is possible. I am in! This is also not specific for who must score, which adds to it. A defensive TD is completely in play. You also get a poker mystery chest on Fox Bet (Poker Stars) if you place a football wager before Thursday. This can contain cash, but I assume it is not much.

Brady to throw a TD in each half +100
Brady’s TD total is only set to 2.5 and the under is heavily juiced at -180. Knowing that the likely outcome is Brady throwing two touchdowns, this seems like something to avoid. In addition, I just mentioned that I am not a fan of timed wagers. I am passing here too.

Football Futures
Pittsburgh Steelers over 8.5 wins +110
Am I a Steelers homer. Yes. The Steelers have not had a losing season since 2003. The year before Ben joined the team. With all the talent they have they only need to go 9-8 to hit this over and it pays plus money. The Bengals seems to be in shambles. The Ravens have no healthy weapons. The Steelers will hit this number.

Las Vegas Raiders Under 7 wins -110
The Raiders are clearly the fourth best team in their division. They have a tough start against three playoff teams from last season and could find themselves 0-4 before hosting the Bears in week five. I could see the Raiders going 1-7 on the road this year. This team continues to get worse.

Houston Texans Under 4 wins +100
The Texans are a three point dog at home in week one, to the Jaguars. They will not be favored all season long. 0-17 is 100% in play.

Pitt over 7 wins +100
Pitt to win the ACC Coastal +1000
I am a Pitt grad. I have been fading Pitt for years. I expect them to disappoint every single year. They have not let me down. Yet, this year I am extremely bullish on the Panthers. This is their best team in a while. They have a QB who could be a first round pick. They return a plethora of starters and depth with experience. What is the path to winning their portion of the conference? Miami and UNC are expected and the betting favorites to win the Coastal. Pitt plays both of these teams at home. I know Heinz Field is not exactly a home field advantage. But, with those games later in the season, it may be cooler and Pitt may have some buzz and perhaps fill the stadium.

Other Wagers I made where the number is gone
Broncos to win Super Bowl 50/1
Remember that day we thought Aaron Rodgers may go to Denver? I do with this wager. LOL. The Broncos are now 40/1.

Jalen Hurts to win MVP 100/1
Is Hurts going to win the MVP? Most likely no. However, he is down to 75/1. I made this wager before Carson Wentz was traded and knew there was value there.

NFL
Nothing at this time.

College Football
Nothing at this time.

Let’s Get Weird
Nothing at this time.

NFL
2021-2022
Overall 0-0 0%
Platinum 0-0 0%
Premium 0-0 0%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 0-0 0%

College Football
Overall 1-1 50%

The free money and free wagers have started to show up. Here is an updated list of items you should 100% take advantage!

Fan Duel is offering a risk free $25 college football wager for this upcoming weekend. of You easily pick a side against the spread, or why not pick a dog on the money line? Since you will get a refund, might as well take a dog on the money line and try to turn that $25 into $50 or something a little more substantial.

Fan Duel is offering $5 in bonus credits for every win a team has during the year, if you bet $50+ on them to win the Super Bowl. If your team wins 10 games, you can max this out and make it a few wager essentially. I think taking a team with a higher win total obviously, makes sense to make this “free,” but does negate any value or hedge equity for later in the season as those teams have shorter odds to win the title. 

Draft Kings is a doing one of these “Hammer the Over” promotions for this weekend as well. For every 2,500 people who bet the over in Georgia and Clemson, the total will drop. This has a max bet of $25, but it will inevitability drop and become free money. The total is at 51.5 now, but for the promotion, it is already down several points. It will eventually, fall to almost zero I would assume. Go collect your free money!

Draft Kings also has the Tampa Bay Bucs at +73 for week one of the NFL season. This max bet appears to be around $50. Go collect your free money!

Draft Kings continues to offer their Wild Card Promotion. You get a new one at different levels of betting or DFS play. There are up to five in total with the top end being reached when you get to $2500 in sports betting or DFS play before week two of the NFL season. Make you go to promos and opt in though.

Fox Bet is offering a fan super boost where Alabama -19.5, Ohio State -13.5, and Clemson -3 all have to win this week at+200. This should pay around +120. Clemson is a very small favorite though. My max bet is $10 LOL.

Barstool Sportsbook is offering the Chicago Bears +7.5 at +100. The more people that bet it the larger the multiplier becomes. I believe the max is bet $5 to win $50 if the Bears cover. I get what Barstool is trying to do here, and yes, this is a nice boost, but it is nowhere near the free money that Draft Kings is giving out. Should you play this, of course. It is a very large boost.

It is still early and these have already been advertised. I will update throughout the week as more offers becomes available.

8-9-2021
I think it is about time I mention what football wagers I have made for the season. Before I get to those, I want all of you to wait to make any new accounts on sportsbooks. Please wait. Customer acquisition is going to be insane the weeks leading up to the NFL. These books may offer all kids of free bets, deposit matches, risk free wagers and such type things to get you to deposit and wager at their book for the NFL season. Just take advantage of these situations as they arise. Maybe we will see redeposit bonuses? Who knows, but whenever Fan Duel says hey, if you deposit $500 we will give you $100, I am going to suggest you do it and collect that free money. The offers are coming soon.

The full football preview will be up in a few weeks. I will be posting everything our computer model has done over the last six years. Below are the wagers I have already made for this season. I am sure I will add a few more before we start the season.

Here is how we finished last year in the NFL.
Overall 147-111 56.97%
Platinum 2-5 28.57%
Premium 24-15 61.54%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 26-20 56.52%

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

Football Futures
Pittsburgh Steelers over 8.5 wins +110
Am I a Steelers homer. Yes. The Steelers have not had a losing season since 2003. The year before Ben joined the team. With all the talent they have they only need to go 9-8 to hit this over and it pays plus money. The Bengals seems to be in shambles. The Ravens have no healthy weapons. The Steelers will hit this number.

Las Vegas Raiders Under 7 wins -110
The Raiders are clearly the fourth best team in their division. They have a tough start against three playoff teams from last season and could find themselves 0-4 before hosting the Bears in week five. I could see the Raiders going 1-7 on the road this year. This team continues to get worse.

Houston Texans Under 4 wins +100
The Texans are a three point dog at home in week one, to the Jaguars. They will not be favored all season long. 0-17 is 100% in play.

Pitt over 7 wins
Pitt to win the ACC Coastal +1000
I am a Pitt grad. I have been fading Pitt for years. I expect them to disappoint every single year. They have not let me down. Yet, this year I am extremely bullish on the Panthers. This is their best team in a while. They have a QB who could be a first round pick. They return a plethora of starters and depth with experience. What is the path to winning their portion of the conference? Miami and UNC are expected and the betting favorites to win the Coastal. Pitt plays both of these teams at home. I know Heinz Field is not exactly a home field advantage. But, with those games later in the season, it may be cooler and Pitt may have some buzz and perhaps fill the stadium.

Other Wagers I made where the number is gone
Broncos to win Super Bowl 50/1
Remember that day we thought Aaron Rodgers may go to Denver? I do with this wager. LOL. The Broncos are now 40/1.

Jalen Hurts to win MVP 100/1
Is Hurts going to win the MVP? Most likely no. However, he is down to 75/1. I made this wager before Carson Wentz was traded and knew there was value there.

MLB
Nothing at this time.

Let’s Get Weird
Nothing at this time.

Basketball
2020-2021 Season Record
NBA Record 81-66 55.10%
NBA Playoff Record 18-11 62.06%
Hoops Parlay Record 45-38 +504
Hoops Odds Boosts 68-128 +1310
Hoops Player Props 4-4 +330
NBA Model Playoff Record 41-41 50%
NBA Model Highest Rated 74-69 51.74%
NBA Model 517-500 50.83%

Baseball
2020-2021 Season Record
Baseball Overall Record 37-68 -1289
Baseball Games 14-16 -780
Baseball Parlay Record 15-29 -359
Baseball Odds boosts Record 11-25 -150

The free money and free wagers have started to show up. Fan Duel is offering a risk free $25 college football wager for this upcoming weekend. You should 100% take advantage of this. You easily pick a side against the spread, or why not pick a dog on the money line? Since you will get a refund, might as well take a dog on the money line and try to turn that $25 into $50 or something a little more substantial.

Draft Kings is a doing one of these “Hammer the Over” promotions for this weekend as well. For every 2,500 people who bet the over in Georgia and Clemson, the total will drop. This has a max bet of $25, but it will inevitability drop and become free money. The total is at 51.5 now, but for the promotion, it is already down to 46 points. It will eventually, fall to almost zero I would assume. Go collect your free money!

It is still early in the week and these two have already been advertised. I will update throughout the week as more offers becomes available.

I think it is about time I mention what football wagers I have made for the season. Before I get to those, I want all of you to wait to make any new accounts on sportsbooks. Please wait. Customer acquisition is going to be insane the weeks leading up to the NFL. These books may offer all kids of free bets, deposit matches, risk free wagers and such type things to get you to deposit and wager at their book for the NFL season. Just take advantage of these situations as they arise. Maybe we will see redeposit bonuses? Who knows, but whenever Fan Duel says hey, if you deposit $500 we will give you $100, I am going to suggest you do it and collect that free money. The offers are coming soon.

The full football preview will be up in a few weeks. I will be posting everything our computer model has done over the last six years. Below are the wagers I have already made for this season. I am sure I will add a few more before we start the season.

Here is how we finished last year in the NFL.
Overall 147-111 56.97%
Platinum 2-5 28.57%
Premium 24-15 61.54%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 26-20 56.52%

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

Football Futures
Pittsburgh Steelers over 8.5 wins +110
Am I a Steelers homer. Yes. The Steelers have not had a losing season since 2003. The year before Ben joined the team. With all the talent they have they only need to go 9-8 to hit this over and it pays plus money. The Bengals seems to be in shambles. The Ravens have no healthy weapons. The Steelers will hit this number.

Las Vegas Raiders Under 7 wins -110
The Raiders are clearly the fourth best team in their division. They have a tough start against three playoff teams from last season and could find themselves 0-4 before hosting the Bears in week five. I could see the Raiders going 1-7 on the road this year. This team continues to get worse.

Houston Texans Under 4 wins +100
The Texans are a three point dog at home in week one, to the Jaguars. They will not be favored all season long. 0-17 is 100% in play.

Pitt over 7 wins
Pitt to win the ACC Coastal +1000
I am a Pitt grad. I have been fading Pitt for years. I expect them to disappoint every single year. They have not let me down. Yet, this year I am extremely bullish on the Panthers. This is their best team in a while. They have a QB who could be a first round pick. They return a plethora of starters and depth with experience. What is the path to winning their portion of the conference? Miami and UNC are expected and the betting favorites to win the Coastal. Pitt plays both of these teams at home. I know Heinz Field is not exactly a home field advantage. But, with those games later in the season, it may be cooler and Pitt may have some buzz and perhaps fill the stadium.

Other Wagers I made where the number is gone
Broncos to win Super Bowl 50/1
Remember that day we thought Aaron Rodgers may go to Denver? I do with this wager. LOL. The Broncos are now 40/1.

Jalen Hurts to win MVP 100/1
Is Hurts going to win the MVP? Most likely no. However, he is down to 75/1. I made this wager before Carson Wentz was traded and knew there was value there.

MLB
Nothing at this time.

Let’s Get Weird
Nothing at this time.

Basketball
2020-2021 Season Record
NBA Record 81-66 55.10%
NBA Playoff Record 18-11 62.06%
Hoops Parlay Record 45-38 +504
Hoops Odds Boosts 68-128 +1310
Hoops Player Props 4-4 +330
NBA Model Playoff Record 41-41 50%
NBA Model Highest Rated 74-69 51.74%
NBA Model 517-500 50.83%

Baseball
2020-2021 Season Record
Baseball Overall Record 37-68 -1289
Baseball Games 14-16 -780
Baseball Parlay Record 15-29 -359
Baseball Odds boosts Record 11-25 -150

God, I am so done with betting baseball. Well, until I decide I am not. I think it is about time I mention what football wagers I have made for the season. Before I get to those, I want all of you to wait to make any new accounts on sportsbooks. Please wait. Customer acquisition is going to be insane the weeks leading up to the NFL. These books may offer all kids of free bets, deposit matches, risk free wagers and such type things to get you to deposit and wager at their book for the NFL season. Just take advantage of these situations as they arise. Maybe we will see redeposit bonuses? Who knows, but whenever Fan Duel says hey, if you deposit $500 we will give you $100, I am going to suggest you do it and collect that free money. The offers are coming soon.

The full football preview will be up in a few weeks. I will be posting everything our computer model has done over the last six years. Below are the wagers I have already made for this season. I am sure I will add a few more before we start the season.

Here is how we finished last year in the NFL.
Overall 147-111 56.97%
Platinum 2-5 28.57%
Premium 24-15 61.54%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 26-20 56.52%

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

Football Futures
Pittsburgh Steelers over 8.5 wins +110
Am I a Steelers homer. Yes. The Steelers have not had a losing season since 2003. The year before Ben joined the team. With all the talent they have they only need to go 9-8 to hit this over and it pays plus money. The Bengals seems to be in shambles. The Ravens have no healthy weapons. The Steelers will hit this number.

Las Vegas Raiders Under 7 wins -110
The Raiders are clearly the fourth best team in their division. They have a tough start against three playoff teams from last season and could find themselves 0-4 before hosting the Bears in week five. I could see the Raiders going 1-7 on the road this year. This team continues to get worse.

Houston Texans Under 4 wins +100
The Texans are a three point dog at home in week one, to the Jaguars. They will not be favored all season long. 0-17 is 100% in play.

Pitt over 7 wins +100
Pitt to win the ACC Coastal +1000
I am a Pitt grad. I have been fading Pitt for years. I expect them to disappoint every single year. They have not let me down. Yet, this year I am extremely bullish on the Panthers. This is their best team in a while. They have a QB who could be a first round pick. They return a plethora of starters and depth with experience. What is the path to winning their portion of the conference? Miami and UNC are expected and the betting favorites to win the Coastal. Pitt plays both of these teams at home. I know Heinz Field is not exactly a home field advantage. But, with those games later in the season, it may be cooler and Pitt may have some buzz and perhaps fill the stadium.

Other Wagers I made where the number is gone
Broncos to win Super Bowl 50/1
Remember that day we thought Aaron Rodgers may go to Denver? I do with this wager. LOL. The Broncos are now 40/1.

Jalen Hurts to win MVP 100/1
Is Hurts going to win the MVP? Most likely no. However, he is down to 75/1. I made this wager before Carson Wentz was traded and knew there was value there.

MLB
Nothing at this time.

Let’s Get Weird
Nothing at this time.

Basketball
2020-2021 Season Record
NBA Record 81-66 55.10%
NBA Playoff Record 18-11 62.06%
Hoops Parlay Record 45-38 +504
Hoops Odds Boosts 68-128 +1310
Hoops Player Props 4-4 +330
NBA Model Playoff Record 41-41 50%
NBA Model Highest Rated 74-69 51.74%
NBA Model 517-500 50.83%

Baseball
2020-2021 Season Record
Baseball Overall Record 37-66 -1079
Baseball Games 14-15 -670
Baseball Parlay Record 15-28 -259
Baseball Odds boosts Record 11-25 -150

As we close the book on the NBA season with the draft coming Thursday. I am very excited as we head into the football season. Couple that with the NBA returning in mid-October and I cannot wait. This was the first season with this brand new NBA model and overall it went well. As I discussed to start the season, we scrapped our old model and built a fresh one. With well over 1,000 games worth of data we believe we know what it is saying and will be unveiling some tweaks when the NBA returns. In early September, you can look for our NFL model to be back and humming. I will detail again the years of data we have and how it has done since inception.

Obviously, writing of articles has been sporadic this summer once the NBA started to wind down. It was fun to travel the last few months and as you can tell from my Twitter feed, visit various breweries and cities.

In terms of futures to mention, I have made two wagers already for the NFL season. I bet over 8.5 wins for the Pittsburgh Steelers. Yes, I am a biased homer for the Steelers, but they continue to never have losing seasons, which means 9-8 at the worst. I think they will be better than that though. I also have an older wager on the Broncos at 50/1 to win the Super Bowl. Remember when people thought Rodgers was headed there? Yeah, well, at least I have a good number.

Please continue to tweet at me with any odds boosts and I will pop in and write an article from time-to-time until the football season starts. Tonight, I am jumping back into MLB, as I had the Brewers last night and will do the same tonight. The Pirates bullpen had to put in a lot of work last night and it is another call-up starter for the Pirates. I am on Milwaukee. Might as well keep the Milwaukee juju going.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!


Olympics Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
Luka to score 30+ and Slovenia to win +110 (FD)
Luka’s point prop is set to 31.5 and Slovenia is a 20-point favorite. Slovenia is -5000 on the money line.
Did you think we were done with the basketball odds boosts? Have you seen the Slovenia roster? Luka can shoot as much as he wants and he needs to score a ton. I am in.

MLB Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
PHI/LAA/CWS to all win +320 (FD)
This should pay +230. All three are favored and it good spots. This is a pretty sizeable boost compared to others they normally offer with three money line favorites. I am in.

DK has 20% profit boost on all games. I suggest betting the Brewers down and taking them.

Bet with PFT Brewers to win and Pirates to score under 4.5 Runs +160 (Barstool)
This parlay should pay about +100. Look, I am fading the Pirates and get to do so with a boost. All in on the Brewers. I am in.

MLB
MIL -150
I did it last night and I am doing it again.  

Let’s Get Weird
Nothing at this time.

Basketball
2020-2021 Season Record
NBA Record 80-66 54.79%
NBA Playoff Record 18-11 62.06%
Hoops Parlay Record 45-38 +504
Hoops Odds Boosts 68-127 +1410
Hoops Player Props 4-4 +330
NBA Model Playoff Record 41-41 50%
NBA Model Highest Rated 74-69 51.74%
NBA Model 517-500 50.83%

Baseball
2020-2021 Season Record
Baseball Overall Record 27-50 -597
Baseball Games 8-11 -551
Baseball Parlay Record 8-15 +104
Baseball Odds boosts Record 11-25 -150

Where to even begin. Tonight it should end. The Bucks will complete their comeback from being down 2-0 and win the series. Before the finals started, I suggested betting Chris Paul to win MVP at +410. I still have that wager. After the Bucks got down 1-0, I bet them to win the series at +240. Before game five, I bet Bucks to win in six games at +300. All three of them are still live and in play. My worst-case scenario would be the Suns coming back and Booker winning the MVP. Does it feel like that is going to happen? I do not think so. The Bucks figured it all out defensively and the Suns still do not have an answer for Giannis. As long as Middleton and Holiday play well enough, the Bucks will close this out. I fully expect to hear how Chris Paul was hurt and playing with some sort of injury that will require surgery.

Despite adjusting for injury, being on the road and Scott Foster, the model likes the Suns +5, but barely. I will be on the Bucks as you can surmise from the above paragraph.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

NBA Model Plays
Suns +5 (Yes, there are some 4.5’s out there. If this falls to 4, the model would flip to the Bucks, that is how close it is.)

NBA Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
3×2 NOPE FD!


Booker to score 30+ and make 3+ Threes +220 (FD)
On the surface this seems pretty simple. Booker could do this in a loss. Yet, Booker has only made 3+ three’s in one game this series. In fact, he has only made 3+ threes in six games during the entire post-season. I am fading, but not because of the points. Pass.


Suns to win by 1-10 points +360 (FD)
If you like the Suns, you should be on this. I could use this a hedge, but nope. I am on the Bucks.


Bucks to cover 4.5 and Giannis over 32.5 Points +250 (FD)
This should pay +204. Keep in the mind the line has bounced around between 4.5 and 5-points since game five. This is right at Giannis’s prop number of 32.5 and he should be in this range. I am thinking he explodes again and cements the Finals MVP with a 35-15 type performance. I am in.


Over 230+ points +240 (FD)
They have gone over this total once and it will not be in Milwaukee, when they try to control the pace a little more. Pass.

Suns ML Boosted to +250 (DK)
Like I said if you like the Suns, the FD one is better, but come on. I am on the Bucks.

DK continues to offer plenty of Suns centric boosts, many that require them to win. As I said, no thank you.

Booker and Giannis to score 30+ Points +200 (Fox)
Booker is -154 to score 30+.
Giannis is -230 to score 30+.
This parlay should pay +130.
I expect both guys to be over 30+ in this one. I hope your max bet is larger than mine is. I am in.

MLB Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
CHC/CWS to both win +225 (DK)
This pays +228 on FD, so yeah pass on this boost.

We will be back with more baseball once the NBA season ends.

NBA
Bucks -4.5 (Barstool, it is five in other spots of course, but when I am betting personally, I am taking the best number. The computer model was run when it was five points. If it falls to four points, the model would flip to the Bucks.)

MLB
Nothing at this time.

Let’s Get Weird
Padres/Bucks ML parlay +135
We can get weird one more time with the NBA tonight!

Basketball
2020-2021 Season Record
NBA Record 79-66 54.48%
NBA Playoff Record 17-11 60.71%
Hoops Parlay Record 45-38 +504
Hoops Odds Boosts 67-126 +1360
Hoops Player Props 4-4 +330
NBA Model Playoff Record 41-40 50.61%
NBA Model Highest Rated 74-69 51.74%
NBA Model 517-499 50.88%

Baseball
2020-2021 Season Record
Baseball Overall Record 26-49 -597
Baseball Games 7-11 -651
Baseball Parlay Record 8-14 +204
Baseball Odds boosts Record 11-25 -150

I am on the Bucks. I think they win tonight and in game six. In Fact, Bucks to win 4-2 pays +300 and I am jumping on that as well. I think there is still no answer for Giannis and despite his off game the Bucks still won game four. Chris Paul may be legit hurt, or worn down by the relentless Milwaukee defense. Everything is lining up in my eyes. The model loves the Bucks, I love the Bucks, and the Suns outshot the Bucks in game four and still lost. This feels like the Giannis ascension in front of our eyes. Tonight seems like the night he goes out and puts up a monster game after game four. I suppose we will find out.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

NBA Model Plays
Bucks +4 (Highest Rated in the model)

NBA Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
3×2 Boost is never going away as it must be so profitable for Fan Duel. Pass.


Taco Bell Come back +350 (FD)
I said it last game, I will say it again. I hate rooting against my bet in one half for this type of stuff. Pass.

Booker and Giannis to score 25+ +100 (Fox)
Go collect your $10. That was my max bet!

I am not interested in any Suns, or Chris Paul odds boosts. He has not liked right.

MLB Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
NA

NBA
Bucks +4
Bucks ML +150 (DK and Barstool have the best number)
Bucks in six games +300

MLB
Nothing at this time.

Let’s Get Weird
Nothing at this time.

Basketball
2020-2021 Season Record
NBA Record 78-66 54.16%
NBA Playoff Record 16-11 59.25%
Hoops Parlay Record 45-38 +504
Hoops Odds Boosts 66-126 +1260
Hoops Player Props 4-4 +330
NBA Model Playoff Record 40-40 50%
NBA Model Highest Rated 73-69 51.40%
NBA Model 516-499 50.83%

Baseball
2020-2021 Season Record
Baseball Overall Record 26-49 -597
Baseball Games 7-11 -651
Baseball Parlay Record 8-14 +204
Baseball Odds boosts Record 11-25 -150

Game four is tonight and it feels good to be back to some normalcy. While I have enjoyed the NBA lasting this long, it seems weird not having as much of a “break” as usual. Nevertheless, the NBA schedule especially for the playoffs and Finals has been bizarre. I think the Bucks figured out their offense and that Giannis will continue to impose his will in this series.

We are fortunate to have The Open starting tomorrow as well, so more things to watch and wager on is never a bad thing.

I of course made a few wagers for The Open, as one does, but I wish it started a little later in the morning, I mean what am I going to do wake up every few hours and check my phone? As someone who woke up early last year to bet and play some KBO DFS, of course it is in play.

For this particular major championship, I have made the following wagers:

Rory 22/1
Noren 90/1
Bryson 35/1
Noren Top 10 +850

I realize Rahm is playing out of his mind, but betting anyone at +700 in a field like this is wild and something I will never do. Rory’s price has clearly dipped from where it was only a short time ago and I am buying the dip, something I had success with last year. In theory that would mean I should jump on DJ at 25/1 as well, but he has not played well recently and this course may not suit him at all. I am passing.

However, I could not pass on my guy Bryson at 35/1. Listen, I realize he has horrid history at The Open, but that price is just too nice for me. He has the ability that he could win and has shown an ability to attack courses in different ways. He could also make an eight and be done early. That is kind of the goal here right. The Talladega Night’s “if you ain’t first, you’re last,” mantra is in play when you are betting the winner.

Lastly, Noren has been playing well and has been around the top 20 several times in The Open. I liked the price and decided he would be my long shot.

I would normally break down the odds boosts available for each site, but I am going to say the combo to win boosts are never that advantageous. Additionally, the make the cut parlays seems extra risky with the conditions and unique style of golf here. I am passing on them and instead playing a little more DFS.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

NBA Model Plays
Suns +4.5

NBA Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
Taco Bell Comeback Boost +350 (FD)
I have said it before, I hate this wagers where you are rooting against yourself in one half. I would rather just be on a team. Pass.

FD 3×2 Boosts
These are an auto pass for me and must be so profitable for the books they keep offering them. Pass.


Suns to cover +4.5 and CP3 20+ Points +190 (FD)
This is a boost as it should pay +142. If you like, the Suns tonight, you should bet this boost. Paul will have to get there and would have last game as well if it were more competitive. I will be on the Bucks, so I am passing, but again if you like the Suns, fire away.


Simmons Boost Giannis -16.5 combo (Pts/REB/Ast) over Booker +130 (FD)
Giannis is set to 53.5 and the over is juiced.
Booker is set to 37.5 and the over is also juiced.
As you can tell this is right in line with what it should be, with the added caveat that you get to bet it at plus money.
Game 1 Giannis 52 Booker 35 aka +17 Giannis
Game 2 Giannis 62 Booker 42 aka +20 Giannis
Game 3 Giannis 60 Booker 18 aka + 42 Giannis

The Suns have zero answer for Giannis, no matter how the game goes. I am in.

DK has plenty of first basket, or a certain amount of threes in a time period wagers. I am passing on those type of wagers; they are more of a gamble to me. The Players are not rushing to make a certain amount of threes in a half or something like that.

Giannis to record 34+ points and the Bucks to win +165 (DK)
This should pay around +150. Giannis’s point prop is set to 34.5 so he can even miss and still get you there. I think Giannis continues to smash and the Bucks win again. I am in.

MLB Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
NA

NBA
Bucks -4.5
The Suns have no answer for Giannis. He will continue to crush and the Suns other guys must play well in a tough road game.  

MLB
Nothing at this time.

Let’s Get Weird
Nothing at this time.

Basketball
2020-2021 Season Record
NBA Record 77-66 53.84%
NBA Playoff Record 15-11 57.69%
Hoops Parlay Record 45-38 +504
Hoops Odds Boosts 66-124 +1460
Hoops Player Props 4-4 +330
NBA Model Playoff Record 40-39 50.63%
NBA Model Highest Rated 73-69 51.40%
NBA Model 516-498 50.88%

Baseball
2020-2021 Season Record
Baseball Overall Record 26-49 -597
Baseball Games 7-11 -651
Baseball Parlay Record 8-14 +204
Baseball Odds boosts Record 11-25 -150