Week One is upon us. While all of our wagers and computer model picks will be listed later in the week, here is a little background. We breakdown our computer model into three categories. The highest is platinum. The next level is Premium. The remaining are just regular plays. Our recommendations is to play the platinum and premium plays. Yet, you can look at our data for the last few years and see that if you bet every single game based upon the computer model, you would be profitable. We started tracking our data with the 2015 season and began posting three season ago. Of course, during the 2019 season our plays were behind a pay wall for a large portion of the season. Just to give you an idea, this is how we finished last season.
Overall 147-111 56.97%
Platinum 2-5 28.57%
Premium 24-15 61.54%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 26-20 56.52%
I said we have data for the last few season and here it is. The breakeven point for betting assuming -110 is 52.4%. As you can see, we are well above that in totality. If you were to bet $110 on every single NFL using our model, last year you would have won $14,700 on winners and lost $12,210 on losers, for a net return of $2,490.
Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!
Computer Model Record
2015-2020
Overall 797-672 54.25%
Premium 178-146 54.93%
Platinum 31-30 51.66%
Overall
2015 132-132 50%
2016 127-94 57.47%
2017 108-99 52.17%
2018 141-118 54.44%
2019 142-118 54.62%
2020 147-111 56.97%
Premium
2015 43-37 53.75%
2016 30-24 55.56%
2017 18-21 46.15%
2018 32-21 60.38%
2019 31-28 52.54%
2020 24-15 61.54%
Platinum
2015 2-1 66.67%
2016 4-4 50%
2017 6-4 60%
2018 6-11 35.29%
2019 11-5 68.75%
2020 2-5 28.57%
Computer Model Plays
Platinum
Premium
Regular Plays
TB -8.5
Football Odds Boost You Should Consider Betting
Fan Duel
Risk free $25 wager. If it loses, you get $25 in site credit back. I tried to hit a home run with this in college by taking the Minnesota money line; I will do the same and take a live dog here as well.
$5 in bonus credits for every win a team has during the year, if you bet $50+ on them to win the Super Bowl. If your team wins 10 games, you can max this out and make it a few wager essentially. I think taking a team with a higher win total obviously, makes sense to make this “free,” but does negate any value or hedge equity for later in the season as those teams have shorter odds to win the title.
TB -9.5 at +150 thanks to Pat McAfee. To be fair, our computer model does feel the spread should be double-digits. If you look at alternative spreads, TB at -9.5 is -110 on Draft Kings Sportsbook. This is actually pretty solid. If you are playing TB -8 or -8.5, there is a lot of value in adding a point to move up to +150. I think this is almost too good of a boost to pass up. Yes, there is a lot of risk here as the Bucs still need to cover, but I would rather lay this number at +150 then lay the -110. I am in.
Draft Kings
Has the Tampa Bay Bucs at +73 for week one of the NFL season. This max bet appears to be around $50. Go collect your free money! I am in.
DK continues to offer their Wild Card Promotion. You get a new one at different levels of betting or DFS play. There are up to five in total with the top end being reached when you get to $2500 in sports betting or DFS play before week two of the NFL season. Make you go to promos and opt in though.
Risk free same game parlay for the NFL. Just like with most of these opt in is required. Make sure to do so. Normally Fan Duel does this only up to $10, but here DK is giving you a refund up to $25. These are things you have to try to take advantage of!
Brady to throw for 300+ Yards and No INT’s +250
Brady’s pass prop is set to 300.5 yards. Brady to not throw an INT is -130. This combo should pay +233. In this case, this is such a small boost it is not worth wagering. There is also the built in blowout risk since the Bucs are larger favorites. Pass for me.
Dak to throw for 350+ Passing Yards +240
Dak’s passing prop is set to 294.5. If you look at alternate lines, Dak to throw for 350+ yards on the Fan Duel Sportsbook pays +265. As you guessed, this is an easy pass. This is your yearly reminder to always shop around and find the best line. Please have money on multiple books, so you can bet this if you want at the best price. Pass on this boost.
10+ points in first quarter -135
I am not a big fan of timed boosts. Pass.
Barstool Sportsbook
Chicago Bears +7.5 at +100. The more people that bet it the larger the multiplier becomes. I believe the max is bet $5 to win $50 if the Bears cover. I get what Barstool is trying to do here, and yes, this is a nice boost, but it is nowhere near the free money that Draft Kings is giving out. Should you play this, of course. It is a very large boost. The optimal play here is to play this for max bet of $5, then turn around and bet $6 on the Rams -7.5. No matter what you turn a profit, although it is only one dollar if the Rams cover, it is much more if the Bears to keep it close.
TB to lead after each quarter +150
Mostly, I avoid all timed wagers. There is no urgency for the Bucs to score quickly if there is one minute left in the first quarter in a tie game, or while trailing. Pass.
Lamb or Evans to score 1st TD +515
Lamb is +1200 and Evans is +650. Usually when you have options like this I prefer to just play the players individually. If you bet $100 on this boost and hit it pays +515 for a net of +$515. Yet, if you bet them individually, while you are risking twice as much you get the added bonus of Lamb possibly hitting at +1200. If Evans scores you would win +$650 – $200 in wagers for +$450. The added ability of Lamb paying off +1200 is significantly better than this combined boost. Pass for me.
Fox Bet
TB Bucs to score at in every quarter Thursday night. This is boosted to +100. This is roughly -115 across the industry so it is a boost. The game has a high total at 52 points and the Dallas defense is bad, as we, all know. I am in on this, but not completely. My max wager is pretty small too. I know opening games teams are not always sharp and it can be a struggle, but I think the Bucs finally had an off season and may actually be better if that is possible. I am in! This is also not specific for who must score, which adds to it. A defensive TD is completely in play. You also get a poker mystery chest on Fox Bet (Poker Stars) if you place a football wager before Thursday. This can contain cash, but I assume it is not much.
Brady to throw a TD in each half +100
Brady’s TD total is only set to 2.5 and the under is heavily juiced at -180. Knowing that the likely outcome is Brady throwing two touchdowns, this seems like something to avoid. In addition, I just mentioned that I am not a fan of timed wagers. I am passing here too.
Football Futures
Pittsburgh Steelers over 8.5 wins +110
Am I a Steelers homer. Yes. The Steelers have not had a losing season since 2003. The year before Ben joined the team. With all the talent they have they only need to go 9-8 to hit this over and it pays plus money. The Bengals seems to be in shambles. The Ravens have no healthy weapons. The Steelers will hit this number.
Las Vegas Raiders Under 7 wins -110
The Raiders are clearly the fourth best team in their division. They have a tough start against three playoff teams from last season and could find themselves 0-4 before hosting the Bears in week five. I could see the Raiders going 1-7 on the road this year. This team continues to get worse.
Houston Texans Under 4 wins +100
The Texans are a three point dog at home in week one, to the Jaguars. They will not be favored all season long. 0-17 is 100% in play.
Pitt over 7 wins +100
Pitt to win the ACC Coastal +1000
I am a Pitt grad. I have been fading Pitt for years. I expect them to disappoint every single year. They have not let me down. Yet, this year I am extremely bullish on the Panthers. This is their best team in a while. They have a QB who could be a first round pick. They return a plethora of starters and depth with experience. What is the path to winning their portion of the conference? Miami and UNC are expected and the betting favorites to win the Coastal. Pitt plays both of these teams at home. I know Heinz Field is not exactly a home field advantage. But, with those games later in the season, it may be cooler and Pitt may have some buzz and perhaps fill the stadium.
Other Wagers I made where the number is gone
Broncos to win Super Bowl 50/1
Remember that day we thought Aaron Rodgers may go to Denver? I do with this wager. LOL. The Broncos are now 40/1.
Jalen Hurts to win MVP 100/1
Is Hurts going to win the MVP? Most likely no. However, he is down to 75/1. I made this wager before Carson Wentz was traded and knew there was value there.
NFL
Nothing at this time.
College Football
Nothing at this time.
Let’s Get Weird
Nothing at this time.
NFL
2021-2022
Overall 0-0 0%
Platinum 0-0 0%
Premium 0-0 0%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 0-0 0%
College Football
Overall 1-1 50%
Win The Weekends 