I was all over the Bucs. I bet them at -6.5. Now, Gronk is officially out and Brady may be a little sick. The world is on the Bucs. I hate it. Nevertheless, I am staying with it. I will not be putting it in any of my contests though. The books seem more than happy to take a lot of money on TB. Not just teasers, ML bets and against the spread, but in terms of boosts as well. Be afraid.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

Computer Model Plays
Platinum
CAR +4.5
PHI +7
DEN -1

Premium
WAS -1
DET +3
CLE -2
LVR +3.5

Regular Plays
HOU +16.5IND +2.5
NO -7.5
NYJ +7
ARZ +4.5
SEA +3
PIT +6.5
NE +6.5

Football Odds Boost You Should Consider Betting

Fan Duel
$10 Same Game Parlay. If it loses, you are refunded in site credit. Always, take the risk free stuff.

Hurts to score a TD and record 200+ Passing yards +400
If not now when? This should pay +216. Here we go again. The Chiefs defense has been awful and I am here to lose more money on the Eagles. I am in.

FD also has several Brady and Bucs related boosts. Man, they are really giving out everything in the world for people to bet the Bucs. Run. A. Way.

Draft Kings
$25 Same Game Parlay. If it loses, you are refunded with a $25 free bet. You have to do these things.

I tweeted about it, but look at all the Brady boosts they have posted. They are not great at this time. Maybe they add more.

BUFF/CLE/TB ML Parlay +175
Ohhhhhhhhhhhhhhh here we go. If you are a long time reader I talked over the last year how the sites will throw a name into a parlay boost like this, but it is deceiving. The sites will use the Yankees in baseball or the Lakers when players are resting and try to trick people into betting this. TB and BUFF are favorites and should be fine. Cleveland is giving two in Minnesota. The Vikings could easily be 3-0. If you recall, I threw out the Vikings as my 5^th game in contests last week for the Bears. That was dumb. The Vikings as a home dog are very intriguing to me. This should pay +145, but I am passing.

They have a Lamar and Teddy B boost for passing yards. This game has a very low total and passing on Denver is very difficult. This is such an easy fade. Feels like the books are setting traps this week.

Barstool Sportsbook
The boosts here suck every week. They are just parlays of their personalities. Pass.

Fox Bet
Baker and Cousins to record 250+ Passing Yards +175
This parlay should pay +136. Cousins will get here easily. Baker will need to pass on the Vikings and you can pass on them. Baker’s prop number is 248.5 and the over is juiced. I am in here.

Beckham/Thielen/Jefferson 50+ Yards Receiving +200
This should pay +139. All three players’ prop numbers are well above 50 yards. I think this game shoots out and I will be stacking the Vikings as I have the last two weeks. I am in.

NFL
TB -6.5
NYJ +7.5
I bet both of these early in the week. As you can tell, I have backed off TB.

ARZ +4.5
The Rams win a massive game and have Seattle on Thursday. This game is lumped in the middle. The Rams have owned the Cards, but Arizona’s defense has been better and they have tons of weapons.

SEA +3
Russ will not lose three in a row. Remember how concerned we were with the Niners secondary insert the Seahawks passing attack. This feels like a must win spot for Seattle and I like them this week.

College Football

Let’s Get Weird
Nothing at this time.

NFL Computer Model
Overall 20-30 40%
Platinum 1-2 33.33%
Premium 5-6 45.45%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 6-8 42.85%

Our Plays
Overall 8-3 72.72%
NFL Odds Boosts 6-12 -515
NFL Teasers and Parlays 0-1 -100

College Football
Overall 4-1 80%
College Odds Boosts 1-0 +100

The over has hit in every primetime game except for Carolina and Houston last Thursday. Could that trend continue tonight? The Jags cannot stop anyone, but do we really feel comfortable laying more than a touchdown with the Bengals? This feels wrong. Yet, the computer model loves Cincinnati. The model feels they should be double-digit favorites and thus we have a platinum play on the Bengals.

I mentioned one of the boost below about fox bet giving out a free $5 wager every Thursday. I wish it paid more, but I threw it on Ja’Marr Chase for first TD at +550. I will also bet Chase on another site using real money. I have bet two boosts thus far for tonight and they are highlighted below. I have also bet two NFL games for this Sunday. I got good numbers, but wanted to mention them, they are also listed below. One is so chalky, I feel silly, but here we are.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

Computer Model Plays
Platinum
CIN -7.5


Premium


Regular Plays

Football Odds Boost You Should Consider Betting

Fan Duel
$10 Same Game Parlay. If it loses, you are refunded in site credit. Always, take the risk free stuff.

Joe Burrow to have 1+ passing TDs in each half +170
I hate timed boosts, but Joey B should be able to throw with ease. The Jags have been awful in almost every facet of the game. Burrow’s passing TD prop is set to 1.5 and the over is extremely heavily juiced at -215. This is incredibly high in terms of a juiced prop. On another site it is only -195 for over 1.5 passing TD’s. Either way that is tough to swallow. I know I pass on boosts, but I am trying to look at this as betting the over on his prop at +170. While I despise the timed part of this boost, I am going to take a shot here. I am in.

Draft Kings
$25 Same Game Parlay. If it loses, you are refunded with a $25 free bet. You have to do these things.

I tweeted about it, but look at all the Brady boosts they have posted. They are not great at this time. Maybe they add more.

10+ points in 1^st quarter +105
I hate timed boosts. Pass.

Chase to record a 45+ yard TD +700
The Jags are in the top five for most 15+-yard completions given up in the NFL. Nevertheless, this has to be a touchdown. Chase could make a big play and not sure. This is asking a lot. If you have a free bet and want to use it on something, this would be fun to sweat. I am passing.

BUFF/CLE/TB ML Parlay +175
Ohhhhhhhhhhhhhhh here we go. If you are a long time reader I talked over the last year how the sites will throw a name into a parlay boost like this, but it is deceiving. The sites will use the Yankees in baseball or the Lakers when players are resting and try to trick people into betting this. TB and BUFF are favorites and should be fine. Cleveland is giving two in Minnesota. The Vikings could easily be 3-0. If you recall, I threw out the Vikings as my 5^th game in contests last week for the Bears. That was dumb. The Vikings as a home dog are very intriguing to me. This should pay +145, but I am passing.

Lawrence and Burrow to combine for 5+ Passing TD’s +250
I already mentioned Burrow’s passing TD prop and two touchdowns as a minimum seems pretty easy. Lawrence’s passing TD prop is set to 1.5 and the over pays +124. If you parlay both of them to go over their number of 1.5, aka a total of 4 passing TD’s it should pay +228. This feels like it has to really shoot out for the Jags to score enough here to make this worth it. I would rather have them both go over for +228, than add another TD for +250. I suppose this boost gives you a chance to have Burrow throw 4+ and Lawrence only 1 TD to get there. Pass.

Barstool Sportsbook
Mixon over 86.5 rushing yards/Chase over 69.5 receiving yards/CIN -7.5 +500
This should pay +438. These numbers are almost a match of their prop numbers. Chase’s number is one-yard higher here than it is on most of the sites. If you think The Bengals smash and have a big offensive game, you can fire here. This is right on the border for me as you need the Jags to be at least somewhat competitive, but then it calls into question the ability to cover the spread. I am passing here.

Fox Bet
Opt in and get your free $5 wager and throw it on someone random for first td.

Chase to record 50+ Yards receiving and score a TD +200
Chase is -125 to score an anytime TD. Chase’s prop number we know is well above this line. Chase is -290 to record 50+ receiving yards. This parlay should pay +132. I am in. With Higgins out again, the target tree is very concentrated for the Bengals. Chase continues to be targeted often and in the red zone. I am betting the max they will let me.

Mixon and James Robinson to rush for 50+ Yards each +100
We know what Mixon’s prop is set to. Mixon should have no issue barring injury from getting to this number. Robinson’s prop number is set to 53.5 yards. I was hoping this would be a boost really worth betting, but on another site, this should pay +102. If I can bet a boost at a better price anywhere, it is an easy pass. I am out.

NFL
TB -6.5
NYJ +7.5

College Football
Nothing at this time.

Let’s Get Weird

NFL Computer Model
Overall 20-29 40.81%
Platinum 1-1 50%
Premium 5-6 45.45%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 6-7 46.15%

Our Plays
Overall 8-3 72.72%
NFL Odds Boosts 6-10 -315
NFL Teasers and Parlays 0-1 -100

College Football
Overall 3-1 75%
College Odds Boosts 1-0 +100

Some days we make bed decisions. I am 2-2 in the Draft Kings picks contest with the Eagles +4.5 points tonight. I should be 3-1. I had Minnesota in as my last game, but flipped it to the Bears before the games started. Oops. This will happen at times, but there is nothing I can do about it now. Anyway, we will move forward and see what we have offered tonight on all the major sites. I am obviously, on the Eagles as is the computer model.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

Computer Model Plays Week 3 (Record is updated at the bottom)
Platinum



Premium


Regular Plays
PHI +4

Football Odds Boost You Should Consider Betting

Fan Duel
$10 Same Game Parlay. If it loses, you are refunded in site credit. Always, take the risk free stuff.

Eagles and Cowboys to each score 2+ TD’s and 2+ FG’s +320
Meh, why do they offer these types of wagers. I am passing here. This does have a large total at 51.5 points, but with the Eagles continually going for it on fourth down near the goal line, there is no guarantee then even attempt a field goal.

Draft Kings
$25 Same Game Parlay. If it loses, you are refunded with a $25 free bet. You have to do these things.

Dak to throw for 3+ Passing TD’s +190
Dak’s TD prop is set to 1.5 and the over is heavily juiced at -172. For Dak to throw 2+ TD’s it pays +145. This is a boost, but I am on the Eagles, so I am fading here. I do think it makes sense that the Cowboys would have to throw more as the Eagles are solid against the run. You can play this, but I am out.

Hurts to record 350+ all purpose yards +250
Hurts passing prop is set to 245.5.
Hurts rushing prop is set to 54.5.
This combo is set to 300 exactly based on his props. If we look alternate lines for both passing and rushing, it is clear that this line is too low. FD does have a combined prop but it is set to 308.5 and the over pays -110. Conversely, while, it is not an exact an apples to apples comparison, Hurts to throw for 275 yards and rush for 70+ yards should pay +750. This would still be five yards short. As much as I love Hurts and thinks he has a big game, you are better off playing some alternate props and parlaying them than betting this boost.

Lamb or Zeke to score a TD in the first half +145
I do not bet boosts that are timed. Pass.

Hurts and Dak with a rushing TD +500
I thought this might be a solid wager. However, you can parlay them to both score at any time and anyway at +689 on Fan Duel. This is an easy pass. Anytime you can bet it on another site at a much better price this is an easy fade.

Barstool Sportsbook
Dallas to win and Over 50+ points +200
This parlay should pay +167. If you like, Dallas you can fire on this. I like the Eagles, so I am passing.

Fox Bet
Hurts 200+ Passing Yards and 60+ Rushing Yards +200
Hurts passing prop is set to 245.5.
Hurts rushing prop is set to 54.5.
This parlay bet with alternative lines should pay +165. I am in. I think Hurts plays well and the Eagles do too. I wonder what everyone’s max bet is here as mine is rather small. I bet my max.

NFL
PHI +4
I bet this Friday night. I know the game is Monday, but grab the numbers before they disappear. The Eagles make it difficult to run the ball and the Cowboys defense won last week despite forcing one punt. This is a close game and I like Philly.

College Football
Nothing at this time.

Let’s Get Weird
Nothing at this time.

NFL Computer Model
Overall 20-28 41.66%
Platinum 1-1 50%
Premium 5-6 45.45%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 6-7 46.15%

Our Plays
Overall 8-2 80%
NFL Odds Boosts 6-8 -115
NFL Teasers and Parlays 0-1 -100

College Football
Overall 3-1 75%
College Odds Boosts 1-0 +100

All of the odds boosts are updated and ready to go! I will post my contest plays closer to kick off! I hope that you saw my tweet about Coastal Carolina -35 as they rolled by 50. The games cannot start soon enough.

9-24-21 Week three is always a little weird. We have some new data and two games as an eye test, but how much can we trust what we have watched to this point. I am skeptical of plenty of teams and with the Colts for sure, I have no idea what to make of them. This is where we really start to learn about everyone after week three. Just like the first two weeks, I will update this article as new odds boosts are posted and I post my wagers. I will also tweet out the five games I use in my picks contest Sunday morning.

9-23-21 Last week was pretty disappointing. I liked four games all week, but needed a fifth for my contests. I settled on the Chiefs. The Chiefs were up 11 with the ball late in the third and lost the game outright, as I am sure you know. Some weeks are much tougher than others are and some games may stand out. I thought Carolina last week was an easy play as the Saints were way over valued. I thought Bears coming home giving less than a field goal was also a solid wager. I ended up betting more on the Bears than anyone else by the time Sunday 1 PM rolled around. The Bengals were a public dog and darling, but I was betting on the Bears defense at home. I still think the Eagles was the correct side in that game, but they failed to come away with points too many times when deep in Niner’s territory. My big mistake was staying with the Steelers. Once the Devin Bush and Joe Haden injuries were announced, in some of my contests I had ample time to make a change. This is where my love of my team gets in the way. I thought the defense would be able to figure it out. Once Tyson Alualu and TJ Watt got hurt early in the game, the Steelers were without four defensive starters. Of course, that does not fix the problems on offense. I should have swapped off the Steelers to someone else. After all, I bad planned to play the Vikings, but missing defensive starters scared me off. Why would I do that with Minnesota, but not Pittsburgh? Oh, yeah, I was going to the Steeler game and they are my team.

In the end, I finished 2-3 in my contests, brining my season long record to 7-3, which is good enough for 68^th place in the Draft Kings picks contest.

I went 2-2 in games I gave out on the Numberball.com Podcast with Jeff. Our computer model went 1-2 on premium plays. One was New Orleans and well, I went the other way as you know. Atlanta not covering after being down three-points with the ball in the fourth quarter was a weird result, but that can happen. Looking at everything and I think my process was correct on most games except sticking with the Steelers. The best part of betting on the NFL is we can learn from our mistakes and go full Ted Lasso and “be a goldfish.” We are on to week three!

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

Computer Model Plays Week 3
Platinum
CHI +7
NO +3


Premium
BAL -8
IND +5.5
ATL +3
PIT -3
ARZ -7
NYJ +10.5

Regular Plays
WAS +7.5
KC -6.5
LVR -4
TB -1
SEA -1.5
GB +3.5
PHI +4

Football Odds Boost You Should Consider Betting

Fan Duel
$10 Same Game Parlay. If it loses, you are refunded in site credit. Always, take the risk free stuff.

ARZ/BAL/DEN to all win +110
This should pay -117 or so. We all know one of these touchdown or more favorites is going to lose, but who? I am in on this.

Draft Kings
$25 Same Game Parlay. If it loses, you are refunded with a $25 free bet. You have to do these things.

20% Profit Boost for every Sunday game. This is a max bet of $50, but you should use this, then bet more after. I mean why would you not take a team from -110 into plus money?

I am ehhhh on all the DK boosts except for one.

Michael Carter to have 12+ receiving yards +110
Tevin Coleman is out. This is set to 10.5 and the over is slightly juiced. I am in here. The Jets will be behind and throwing and one or two dump offs will hit the over here.

Barstool Sportsbook
Do you want to back any of the Barstool employees random parlay boosts? Yeah, me either.  

Fox Bet
ARZ/BUF/CLE to all win +150
This should pay +114 and it is solid. Look, I am taking the dog in some of these games, but I am happy to do both for this boost. I am in.

Honestly, there is nothing that is even in the realm of good. Many of these are combined props that you are better off betting on their own. Disappointing.

NFL
LAC +6.5
The Chiefs have really struggled to cover and the Chargers had so many penalties and weird red zone turnovers last week. I think the Chargers can win outright, but I will happily take the points.  


LAR +1.5
No AB means the Rams can put Ramsey on Evans and make the rest of the Bucs offense beat them. Maybe I am crazy, but this lines up perfectly for a Rams defense that has not been as good as expected. I think they get right here and get pressure on Brady and the Rams win at home. The Bucs will not go 17-0.

PHI +4
I bet this Friday night. I know the game is Monday, but grab the numbers before they disappear. The Eagles make it difficult to run the ball and the Cowboys defense won last week despite forcing one punt. This is a close game and I like Philly.

College Football
Nothing at this time.

Let’s Get Weird
7 point teaser +700
ARZ -.5/BAL -.5/WAS +14/LAC +14/CHI +14.5/DEN -3.5/LAR +8.5/PHI +10

NFL Computer Model
Overall 16-17 48.48%
Platinum 0-0 0%
Premium 3-2 60%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 3-2 60%

Our Plays
Overall 6-2 75%
NFL Odds Boosts 4-7 -275

College Football
Overall 3-1 75%
College Odds Boosts 1-0 +100

Week three is always a little weird. We have some new data and two games as an eye test, but how much can we trust what we have watched to this point. I am skeptical of plenty of teams and with the Colts for sure, I have no idea what to make of them. This is where we really start to learn about everyone after week three. Just like the first two weeks, I will update this article as new odds boosts are posted and I post my wagers. I will also tweet out the five games I use in my picks contest Sunday morning.

9-23-21 Last week was pretty disappointing. I liked four games all week, but needed a fifth for my contests. I settled on the Chiefs. The Chiefs were up 11 with the ball late in the third and lost the game outright, as I am sure you know. Some weeks are much tougher than others are and some games may stand out. I thought Carolina last week was an easy play as the Saints were way over valued. I thought Bears coming home giving less than a field goal was also a solid wager. I ended up betting more on the Bears than anyone else by the time Sunday 1 PM rolled around. The Bengals were a public dog and darling, but I was betting on the Bears defense at home. I still think the Eagles was the correct side in that game, but they failed to come away with points too many times when deep in Niner’s territory. My big mistake was staying with the Steelers. Once the Devin Bush and Joe Haden injuries were announced, in some of my contests I had ample time to make a change. This is where my love of my team gets in the way. I thought the defense would be able to figure it out. Once Tyson Alualu and TJ Watt got hurt early in the game, the Steelers were without four defensive starters. Of course, that does not fix the problems on offense. I should have swapped off the Steelers to someone else. After all, I bad planned to play the Vikings, but missing defensive starters scared me off. Why would I do that with Minnesota, but not Pittsburgh? Oh, yeah, I was going to the Steeler game and they are my team.

In the end, I finished 2-3 in my contests, brining my season long record to 7-3, which is good enough for 68^th place in the Draft Kings picks contest.

I went 2-2 in games I gave out on the Numberball.com Podcast with Jeff. Our computer model went 1-2 on premium plays. One was New Orleans and well, I went the other way as you know. Atlanta not covering after being down three-points with the ball in the fourth quarter was a weird result, but that can happen. Looking at everything and I think my process was correct on most games except sticking with the Steelers. The best part of betting on the NFL is we can learn from our mistakes and go full Ted Lasso and “be a goldfish.” We are on to week three!

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

Computer Model Plays Week 3
Platinum
CHI +7
NO +3


Premium
BAL -8
IND +5.5
ATL +3
PIT -3
ARZ -7
NYJ +10.5

Regular Plays
WAS +7.5
KC -6.5LVR -4
TB -1
SEA -1.5
GB +3.5
PHI +4

Football Odds Boost You Should Consider Betting

Fan Duel
$10 Same Game Parlay. If it loses, you are refunded in site credit. Always, take the risk free stuff.

Nothing else is listed at the moment.

Draft Kings
$25 Same Game Parlay. If it loses, you are refunded with a $25 free bet. You have to do these things.

20% Profit Boost for every Sunday game. This is a max bet of $50, but you should use this, then bet more after. I mean why would you not take a team from -110 into plus money?

25% Profit Boost College Football Parlay. No one side can be a larger favorite than -500.

Draft Kings basically gives out free bets for any kind of casino play. I am doing this to get the free bets and using them on random things like NBA futures. Yes, the NBA season is right around the corner. I mean who does not want to use a $10 free bet on 10 football money lines and the Nuggets to win the NBA title, which becomes boosted to 130/1?

Nothing else is listed at this time.

Barstool Sportsbook
Nothing is listed at this time.

Fox Bet
There are a few smaller things mentioned, but nothing note worthy.

NFL
LAC +6.5
The Chiefs have really struggled to cover and the Chargers had so many penalties and weird red zone turnovers last week. I think the Chargers can win outright, but I will happily take the points.  

College Football
Nothing at this time.

Let’s Get Weird
Nothing at this time.

NFL Computer Model
Overall 16-17 48.48%
Platinum 0-0 0%
Premium 3-2 60%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 3-2 60%

Our Plays
Overall 6-2 75%
NFL Odds Boosts 4-7 -275

College Football
Overall 2-1 66.66%
College Odds Boosts 1-0 +100

Last week was pretty disappointing. I liked four games all week, but needed a fifth for my contests. I settled on the Chiefs. The Chiefs were up 11 with the ball late in the third and lost the game outright, as I am sure you know. Some weeks are much tougher than others are and some games may stand out. I thought Carolina last week was an easy play as the Saints were way over valued. I thought Bears coming home giving less than a field goal was also a solid wager. I ended up betting more on the Bears than anyone else by the time Sunday 1 PM rolled around. The Bengals were a public dog and darling, but I was betting on the Bears defense at home. I still think the Eagles was the correct side in that game, but they failed to come away with points too many times when deep in Niner’s territory. My big mistake was staying with the Steelers. Once the Devin Bush and Joe Haden injuries were announced, in some of my contests I had ample time to make a change. This is where my love of my team gets in the way. I thought the defense would be able to figure it out. Once Tyson Alualu and TJ Watt got hurt early in the game, the Steelers were without four defensive starters. Of course, that does not fix the problems on offense. I should have swapped off the Steelers to someone else. After all, I bad planned to play the Vikings, but missing defensive starters scared me off. Why would I do that with Minnesota, but not Pittsburgh? Oh, yeah, I was going to the Steeler game and they are my team.

In the end, I finished 2-3 in my contests, brining my season long record to 7-3, which is good enough for 68^th place in the Draft Kings picks contest.

I went 2-2 in games I gave out on the Numberball.com Podcast with Jeff. Our computer model went 1-2 on premium plays. One was New Orleans and well, I went the other way as you know. Atlanta not covering after being down three-points with the ball in the fourth quarter was a weird result, but that can happen. Looking at everything and I think my process was correct on most games except sticking with the Steelers. The best part of betting on the NFL is we can learn from our mistakes and go full Ted Lasso and “be a goldfish.” We are on to week three!

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

Computer Model Plays Week 3
Platinum

Premium


Regular Plays
HOU +8.5

Football Odds Boost You Should Consider Betting

Fan Duel
$10 Same Game Parlay. If it loses, you are refunded in site credit. Always, take the risk free stuff.

1+ TD’s scored in each quarter HOU/CAR +320
I hate timed boosts. Easy Pass for me. This game also has a low total of only 43.5.

Draft Kings
$25 Same Game Parlay. If it loses, you are refunded with a $25 free bet. You have to do these things.

20% Profit Boost for every Sunday game. This is a max bet of $50, but you should use this, then bet more after. I mean why would you not take a team from -110 into plus money?

CMC to rush for 100+ Yards +200
CMC’s prop total is set to 84.5. CMC to rush for 100+ is +144 on another website.
Oddly, CMC does not often rush for 100+ yards. He has not done it since the 2019 season, where he did it six times. (Yes, he was hurt most of last year) In fact, he has only done it 10 out of 53 career games. If you throw out his rookie season, where he did not accomplish this feat at all, and it is 10 out of 37 games. This wager has an implied probability of hitting around 33.33% of the time. Since CMC has done this only 27% of games he has played after his rookie year, we are not getting a price I would like to take advantage. Pass for me.

Cooks to record a TD catch +220
Cooks is +185 to score a TD anytime on one site and +200 on another. Notice, this boost says to catch a TD. While the chances of him running or returning a TD are remote, they are excluded from this boost. Look, if you want to back Davis Mills throwing a TD against a sneaky good Panthers defense, go for it. I will not be doing that. Pass for me.

Darnold to throw for 300+ Yards +240
Darnold’s prop is set to 258.5. Darnold to throw for 300+ is +235 on another book. Some boost. This is an easy pass as it is barely a boost.

Barstool Sportsbook
Nothing for Thursday night NFL.

Fox Bet
Darnold 250+ Passing Yards and Panthers win +100
Darnold’s prop is set to 258.5. Darnold is -146 to throw for 250+ yards. The Panthers are large 8.5 point favorites, or as low as 7.5 depending upon where you look. This parlay pays +116 on Fan Duel, so there is no reason to bet this at +100 over on Fox Bet. Pass.

CMC 70+ Rushing Yards and to score a TD +100
CMC’s prop total is set to 84.5. CMC is -240 to run for 70+ yards tonight. CMC is also -360 to score a touchdown at any time. This parlay should pay -130. This is a pretty solid boost. You get CMC under his prop number and he is obviously expected to have several scoring opportunities. I am in. I hope your max bet is larger than mine.

Free $5 Thursday Night Bet. (Opt in required)
I use this on a long shot for first TD every week. I’ll take DJ Moore at +775 on Fox Bet.  

NFL
Nothing at this time.

College Football
Nothing at this time.

Let’s Get Weird
Nothing at this time.

NFL Computer Model
Overall 16-16 50%
Platinum 0-0 0%
Premium 3-2 60%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 3-2 60%

Our Plays
Overall 6-2 75%
NFL Odds Boosts 4-6 -175

College Football
Overall 2-1 66.66%
College Odds Boosts 1-0 +100

Week two is upon us! There are a few odds boosts I am on, at various sites!

Nevertheless, we move on and are on to the main event of week two. I want to remind everyone that the computer model plays are based on the Westgate Super Contest Lines. They are stagnant and do not change. Again, when I post my plays for the DK contest they may be different from the computer model or what is posted. The Lines I will use at the bottom to mention my bets are the lines at the time of writing. I make bets all throughout the week, but to be fair to anyone out there I will mention the lines as they currently sit. I am mentioning this because I took the Eagles at +3.5 earlier in the week, but they are down to +3 throughout the industry.

Make sure you are subscribing to Numberball.com for all your DFS needs and listening to the show I am doing with Jeff Collins. We break down every single game in detail for DFS and sports betting purposes.

Last week was great, and hopefully, we can duplicate some of that success this week.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

Computer Model Plays
Platinum
Nothing at this time.

Premium
HOU +12.5
NO -3
ATL +12.5

Regular Plays
PITT -5.5
CHI -2.5
IND +3.5
MIA +3.5
NYJ +6
SF -3.5
JAX +6
MINN +3.5
DAL +3
TEN +5.5
BAL +3.5
GB -11.5

Football Odds Boost You Should Consider Betting

Fan Duel
$10 Same Game Parlay. If it loses, you are refunded in site credit. Always, take the risk free stuff.

DeVonta Smith 70+ Receiving yard +280
Smith’s prop number is set to 50.5 and I happen to like the over. The Niners have injuries on defense, especially in the secondary. This should pay around +10. I am in. I think the Eagles score a ton this week.

ARZ/KC to win +170
This should pay +126. I have weird feelings about this Arizona game and well, the Chiefs should win no problem as they own the Ravens. You can definitely fire on this if you want. I am going to pass


Herbert to throw 2+ TD’s/LAC to win +140
This should pay +131. This is such a tiny boost it is not worth playing. I think Herbert will easily throw two TD’s as this game has a massive total, but in terms of the boost, pass.

Draft Kings
$25 Same Game Parlay. If it loses, you are refunded with a $25 free bet. You have to do these things.

20% Profit Boost for every Sunday game. This is a max bet of $50, but you should use this, then bet more after. I mean why would you not take a team from -110 into plus money?

33% Parlay Boost on a 3+ leg parlay. No one leg can be a larger favorite than -500. Max bet again is $50.

DeVonta Smith to score a TD +240
Smith is +200 for anytime TD scorer. If I am on the other prop, it makes sense I would be on this. I am heavily invested in the Eagles for the second straight week.

Chase Claypool to score a TD +170
Claypool is +160 for anytime TD scorer. This is an easy pass as it is barely a boost.

Barstool Sportsbook
Big Cat Can’t lose Parlay
CLE/PIT/TB to all win/ PHI +8.5/Over 47.5 KC and BAL +350
Shockingly, this is pretty solid. This parlay should pay +259. I think Cleveland, Pittsburgh, and Tampa Bay all win. I am on the Eagles, as you know. That means we get over in the KC/BAL game, but at a seven-point discount. Plus, we can hedge middle the total in the night game. I like this. I am in!

Fox Bet
 Eagles to score a TD at +100. My Max bet was $10. Maybe yours is larger, but I doubt it. Fox Bet has allowed us to bet things like this for a max of $10, but last year you could do it every day. I am not opposed to a free $40 if I can bet this every day until Sunday.

Ben 250+ Yards passing/2+ TD Passes/Steelers to win +200

Cooper/Lamb/Allen/Williams to each record 50+ Yards Receiving +300

NFL
PHI +3
I think the Eagles are good. The Niners lost several defensive players to injury. We will continue to ride the birds as dogs.

CAR +3.5
Every year in week two there are lines that are an overreaction to week one. I present to you the Saints on the road one week after a large portion of the betting public thought they were going to be crushed by the Packers. Yes, the computer model has the Saints, but here we are.


PITT -5.5
Old school betting take incoming. The Raiders played late Monday night on the west coast and now travel to the East coast for a 1 PM game against a very good defense and team that had an extra day of rest. On the other hand, these are games that Tomlin has a history of blowing. The Raiders somehow win in Pittsburgh a lot more often than they should. Tomlin last week proved that he was going to play to win games and threw to get first downs late instead of running the clock. Maybe, and yes this is the Steelers fan in me, Tomlin has figured out the aggression necessary to put games away. I hope the Steelers do not come out flat in this spot, but I think this is a tough ask for the Raiders.

CHI -1.5
Ohhhh this is an overreaction. The Bengals could have easily lost last week and the Bears would be -3 here. I am down with the Bears.

College Football
Nothing at this time.

Let’s Get Weird
Nothing at this time.

NFL Computer Model
Overall 7-9 43.75%
Platinum 0-0 0%
Premium 2-0 100%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 2-0 100%

Our Plays
Overall 4-0 100%
NFL Odds Boosts 3-3 +025

College Football
Overall 2-1 66.66%
College Odds Boosts 1-0 +100

We almost hit that odds boost on Barstool, just needed Gibson to run in that TD instead of Mckissic. Nevertheless, we move on and are on to the main event of week two. I want to remind everyone that the computer model plays are based on the Westgate Super Contest Lines. They are stagnant and do not change. Again, when I post my plays for the DK contest they may be different from the computer model or what is posted. The Lines I will use at the bottom to mention my bets are the lines at the time of writing. I make bets all throughout the week, but to be fair to anyone out there I will mention the lines as they currently sit. I am mentioning this because I took the Eagles at +3.5 earlier in the week, but they are down to +3 throughout the industry.

Make sure you are subscribing to Numberball.com for all your DFS needs and listening to the show I am doing with Jeff Collins. We break down every single game in detail for DFS and sports betting purposes.

Last week was great, and hopefully, we can duplicate some of that success this week.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

Computer Model Plays
Platinum
Nothing at this time.

Premium
HOU +12.5
NO -3
ATL +12.5

Regular Plays
PITT -5.5
CHI -2.5
IND +3.5
MIA +3.5
NYJ +6
SF -3.5
JAX +6
MINN +3.5
DAL +3
TEN +5.5
BAL +3.5
GB -11.5

Football Odds Boost You Should Consider Betting

Fan Duel
$10 Same Game Parlay. If it loses, you are refunded in site credit. Always, take the risk free stuff.

There is nothing else listed at this time.

Draft Kings
$25 Same Game Parlay. If it loses, you are refunded with a $25 free bet. You have to do these things.

20% Profit Boost for every Sunday game. This is a max bet of $50, but you should use this, then bet more after. I mean why would you not take a team from -110 into plus money?

33% Parlay Boost on a 3+ leg parlay. No one leg can be a larger favorite than -500. Max bet again is $50.

Barstool Sportsbook
Nothing is listed at this time. It appears Barstool is really catering to the college sports bettor, maybe that say more about their target demographic and who follows them on social media.

Fox Bet
 Eagles to score a TD at +100. My Max bet was $10. Maybe yours is larger, but I doubt it. Fox Bet has allowed us to bet things like this for a max of $10, but last year you could do it every day. I am not opposed to a free $40 if I can bet this every day until Sunday.

NFL
PHI +3
I think the Eagles are good. The Niners lost several defensive players to injury. We will continue to ride the birds as dogs.

CAR +3.5
Every year in week two there are lines that are an overreaction to week one. I present to you the Saints on the road one week after a large portion of the betting public thought they were going to be crushed by the Packers. Yes, the computer model has the Saints, but here we are.


PITT -5.5
Old school betting take incoming. The Raiders played late Monday night on the west coast and now travel to the East coast for a 1 PM game against a very good defense and team that had an extra day of rest. On the other hand, these are games that Tomlin has a history of blowing. The Raiders somehow win in Pittsburgh a lot more often than they should. Tomlin last week proved that he was going to play to win games and threw to get first downs late instead of running the clock. Maybe, and yes this is the Steelers fan in me, Tomlin has figured out the aggression necessary to put games away. I hope the Steelers do not come out flat in this spot, but I think this is a tough ask for the Raiders.

College Football
Nothing at this time.

Let’s Get Weird
Nothing at this time.

NFL Computer Model
Overall 7-9 43.75%
Platinum 0-0 0%
Premium 2-0 100%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 2-0 100%

Our Plays
Overall 4-0 100%
NFL Odds Boosts 3-3 +025

College Football
Overall 2-1 66.66%
College Odds Boosts 1-0 +100

Island games are always super fun, even when they have a low total and may feature two bad teams. There are a few odds boosts to take a look at and possibly bet. The computer likes the WFT, but barely. It believe the spread should be -3.5 which is exactly what it is. When that is the case, and I personally do not have a lean on a game, I stay away.

I will update this article and add the rest of our computer model plays tomorrow. On Saturday, I will add in any odds, boosts the sites begin adding. It seems like last year they had their odds boosts ready by Thursday, but this year, they are waiting until Friday evening or even later. I wonder why they are choosing to wait. It feels odd to me. I would think they would get more traffic, if they just went ahead and posted them.

9-15-21
That was a decent start to the season.

On the Numberball NFL Rundown, I gave out six plays I liked. (Also, you should subscribe to Numberball.com for all your daily fantasy needs.)
PITT WIN
MIA WIN
ARZ WIN
PHI WIN
DEN WIN
LVR WIN

Our Computer model gave out two premium plays.
HOU WIN
MIA WIN

In the Draft Kings Pick’em contest I went 5-0.
PITT WIN
MIA WIN
DEN WIN
PHI WIN
LAR WIN

I am pretty sure I could not have drawn it up any better. A grand total of 32 people went 5-0 in the DK contest, of course I would like to win, and the $1 million that comes with winning the crown. There are over 1800 runners, so I am realistic as to what it would take to actually win. While it was nice to start the season this way, we are right back at it for week two. Sports betting is a very long grind and it never stops if you play multiple sports. One thing to keep in mind when you see me tweet my picks for the DK contest, they are avoiding ties by moving every line a half-point. This means a team that is +3 in every market may only be +2.5, or conversely +3.5 in the contest. There is no need to tweet at me, “how did you get +3.5, when I only see +3.” Believe me, I understand. As I mentioned last year on the show with Jeff Collins, there may be times a line has moved and you have to take it in the contest. Lines for most picks contest lock on Wednesday night. If major new breaks or a QB is ruled out, the line may be drastically different for what we can actually bet, yet the line for that contest is stagnant and will not change.

Just like last week, I will update this blog post throughout the week as different odds boosts are posted by the major sites. I hope that they can give us a dog we like again boosted to plus money. Even the one boost that failed, was due to injury and Fan Duel was nice enough to refund that money in site credit. I am still upset about the night two years ago, I bet an over on Jonathan Isaac of the Orlando Magic and he got hurt in under thirty seconds. It seems strange that FD decides to refund some things due to injury, but not others. I mean, the Mostert boost was their own sponsored boost, so perhaps that had something to do with it. Even though it was refunded, I am counting my suggestion to bet that boost as a loss. After all, it did not win.

Computer Model Plays
Platinum


Premium


Regular Plays
WFT -3.5

Football Odds Boost You Should Consider Betting

Fan Duel
$10 Same Game Parlay. If it loses, you are refunded in site credit. Always, take the risk free stuff.

Daniel Jones to have 1+ Passing TD’s in each half +360
Jones TD prop is set to 1.5 and the under is heavily juiced at -205. This is an easy fade for me. I hate timed boosts and he is barely expected to get two passing TD’s let alone guessing on the timing. Pass.

Draft Kings
$25 Same Game Parlay. If it loses, you are refunded with a $25 free bet. You have to do these things.

20% Profit Boost for TNF and every Sunday game. This is a max bet of $50, but you should use this, then bet more after. I mean why would you not take a team from -110 into plus money?

33% Parlay Boost on a 3+ leg parlay. No one leg can be a larger favorite than -500. Max bet again is $50.

McLaurin to record 100+ receiving yards +265
McLaurin’s player prop is set to 67.5 yards. If you head over to FD, you can bet him to record 100+ yards at +280. This is an easy pass on the boost.


Barkley or Gibson to score a TD in first half +120
I hate timed bets and I hate either or bets. You are almost always better taking the individuals. Pass for me.

Young to record 1+ sack +100
The total sacks in this game is set to 5.5. Over on Fox Bet over 2.5 sacks by the WFT -167. This is an odd one. In their two games last year, Chase Young had one sack only. The issue is that Daniel Jones may not throw many passes if this is a low scoring grind of a game. If you think WFT wins and is ahead most of the game, then by all means fire away as Jones will have to throw. However, when games are close, low scoring and competitive, Jones sometimes does not throw much. Against the Bronco’s last week, despite being behind and throwing more than usual, Jones was only hit three times and sacked on two of them. They were all by Von Miller. This is not a slam dunk auto bet, but in fact about right on the line. I am going to avoid, but if you like WFT a ton it makes sense to be on this.

Barstool Sportsbook
WAS to lead at half time and win the game +135
If you bet this as a parlay on another site it should pay +109, so this is a boost. If you really like the WFT tonight and think they dominate or lead throughout, then you can fire away. I am staying away as it may take the backup QB some time to get acclimated, and you have to be winning at half time. Not exactly, a lot of prep time on a short week. Pass for me.

WAS to win/Gibson to score/Gibson to rush for over 67.5 Yards +350
I cannot find an exact comp here due to the yards being different and not all yardage is listed on every website. However, a parlay of WFT to win, Gibson anytime TD scorer and over 70 rushing yards should pay +258 on FD sportsbook. This is a very strong boost. You get a break on the yardage and it pays significantly more. I like it. I am in.

Fox Bet
Free $5 bet every Thursday, but must opt in. I always use it on first TD and try to make it a bigger bonus.

McLaurin and Shepard both 50+ Yards receiving +100
McLaurin is set to 67.5. Shepard is set to 57.5.
If you were to wager on the prop of their alternate receiving yards set to 50+ and parlay them it should pay +129. On the face, this seems like a good boost, but you can find better elsewhere. Pass.

*For Sunday they have the Eagles to score a TD at +100. My Max bet was $10. Maybe yours is larger, but I doubt it. Fox Bet has allowed us to bet things like this for a max of $10, but last year you could do it every day. I am not opposed to a free $40 if I can bet this every day until Sunday.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

NFL
Nothing at this time.

College Football
Nothing at this time.

Let’s Get Weird
Nothing at this time.

NFL Computer Model
Overall 7-8 46.66%
Platinum 0-0 0%
Premium 2-0 100%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 2-0 100%

Our Plays
Overall 4-0 100%
NFL Odds Boosts 3-2 +125

College Football
Overall 2-1 66.66%
College Odds Boosts 1-0 +100

That was a decent start to the season.

On the Numberball NFL Rundown, I gave out six plays I liked. (Also, you should subscribe to Numberball.com for all your daily fantasy needs.)
PITT WIN
MIA WIN
ARZ WIN
PHI WIN
DEN WIN
LVR WIN

Our Computer model gave out two premium plays.
HOU WIN
MIA WIN

In the Draft Kings Pick’em contest I went 5-0.
PITT WIN
MIA WIN
DEN WIN
PHI WIN
LAR WIN

I am pretty sure I could not have drawn it up any better. A grand total of 32 people went 5-0 in the DK contest, of course I would like to win, and the $1 million that comes with winning the crown. There are over 1800 runners, so I am realistic as to what it would take to actually win. While it was nice to start the season this way, we are right back at it for week two. Sports betting is a very long grind and it never stops if you play multiple sports. One thing to keep in mind when you see me tweet my picks for the DK contest, they are avoiding ties by moving every line a half-point. This means a team that is +3 in every market may only be +2.5, or conversely +3.5 in the contest. There is no need to tweet at me, “how did you get +3.5, when I only see +3.” Believe me, I understand. As I mentioned last year on the show with Jeff Collins, there may be times a line has moved and you have to take it in the contest. Lines for most picks contest lock on Wednesday night. If major new breaks or a QB is ruled out, the line may be drastically different for what we can actually bet, yet the line for that contest is stagnant and will not change.

Just like last week, I will update this blog post throughout the week as different odds boosts are posted by the major sites. I hope that they can give us a dog we like again boosted to plus money. Even the one boost that failed, was due to injury and Fan Duel was nice enough to refund that money in site credit. I am still upset about the night two years ago, I bet an over on Jonathan Isaac of the Orlando Magic and he got hurt in under thirty seconds. It seems strange that FD decides to refund some things due to injury, but not others. I mean, the Mostert boost was their own sponsored boost, so perhaps that had something to do with it. Even though it was refunded, I am counting my suggestion to bet that boost as a loss. After all, it did not win.

Our computer model play for Thursday night will be posted tomorrow.

Computer Model Plays
Platinum


Premium


Regular Plays

Football Odds Boost You Should Consider Betting

Fan Duel
$10 Same Game Parlay. If it loses, you are refunded in site credit. Always, take the risk free stuff.

Draft Kings
$25 Same Game Parlay. If it loses, you are refunded with a $25 free bet. You have to do these things.

Barstool Sportsbook

Fox Bet

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

NFL
Nothing at this time.

College Football
Nothing at this time.

Let’s Get Weird
Nothing at this time.

NFL Computer Model
Overall 7-8 46.66%
Platinum 0-0 0%
Premium 2-0 100%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 2-0 100%

Our Plays
Overall 4-0 100%
NFL Odds Boosts 3-2 +125

College Football
Overall 2-1 66.66%
College Odds Boosts 1-0 +100