We have a full 11-game slate tonight! I love it. I cannot wait to play some DFS and fire off some bets.

NBA Model Plays
CHA -1
CHI -5
WAS +3
NYK -2.5
CLE +7.5
PHI -4
HOU +6.5 (Highest Rated in Model)
ORL +6.5
UTA -12.5
POR -5
DEN +6.5 (Highest Rated in Model)

*if two games or more reach a certain level, we will label them highest rated in model. The record at bottom will be updated to note we may have more than one top play per day from the computer model.

Basketball Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
$20 risk free same game parlay (FD)
There is an opt in required, but always do this when it is risk free.

Knicks and Raptors to both win +240 (FD)
This should pay +194. Both of these teams are short favorites at home. I mean, I have no idea what the new look Raptors will be. The Celtics may have some Covid issues, but at this time, I am going to wait and see here. Pass.

$25 risk free same game parlay (DK)
Again, you have to do these things and get a free bet if it loses.

Game of the Week Wednesday (DK)
Opt in and place a bet of $50+ on Suns/Nuggets. For every point over 200 scored in the game, you get a free bet. If 234 points are scored, you get a $34 free bet.
The total in this game opened at 222.5, but now sits at 224. While the Suns are a 6.5-point favorite.
The Suns in the playoffs destroyed the Nuggets only a few months ago. The Nuggets are not healthy yet as Jamal Murray is still out. The Suns were very tough at home last year. This is a tough spot, but because of the boost you are getting almost half off a wager. Oddly, the Nuggets are the second highest rated team in the model. Reluctantly, I am going to lock in the Nuggets +6.5 with this boost.

There are no other NBA odds boosts posted on DK.

Embiid 1+ dunk and Sixers win +100 (Fox)
Embiid averages 0.81 dunks per game and the Sixers are four-point road favorites. I hate dunk boosts and Embiid has let us down plenty of times. Pass for me.

LaVine and Ja 1+ dunk each +125 (Fox)
Why? I hate dunk boosts. Pass.


Hornets/Bulls/Sixers to all win +375 (Fox)
This should pay +331. The Hornets are tiny one-point favorites. The Bulls and Sixers are slightly larger favorites. Do you really want to play a three-team parlay on opening night with small numbers here? Pass for me. If this paid +430, I would be more likely to come in on this boost.

LaMelo Ball to record a double-double +500 (Fox)
This game has a 223 point total. Ball’s point prop is set to 18.5. Ball’s rebound prop is set to 5.5. Ball’s assist prop is set to 6.5. I was somewhat surprised Ball’s assist prop was so low. Ball is +440 to record 10+ assists. Considering what that pays, it is clear the expectation is he does not get a double-double. I was hoping this would be better than it was, but instead I am passing.

Embiid to score 20+/Maxey to score 10+/Sixers to win +140 (Barstool)
This parlay should pay -104. The Sixers are small four-point road favorites. Embiid’s prop is set to 28.5 points. Maxey’s point prop is set to 14.5. I normally shy away from most Barstool boosts, but this is pretty good. Both players can miss their prop, but the Sixers still need to win. I like this as the Pelicans are in disarray it seems. I am in.

NBA
PHI -4
What am I missing here? The Sixers have moved on from Simmons and one way to get through a distraction is to win. I like Philly tonight.

DEN +6.5
Denver is not completely healthy, but they were playing Austin Rivers 40 minutes a night in the playoffs. The depth is back and they will be more competitive.

Let’s Get Weird
Nothing at this time.

NBA Record 2010-2022
NBA Record 0-1 0%
Hoops Parlay Record
Hoops Odds Boosts 1-0 +135
Hoops Player Props
NBA Model Highest Rated
NBA Model 1-1 50%

Last year was the first year for our brand new NBA model. We feel like we have plenty of data points and have tweaked it where necessary and we our ready for this year. Expect us to post model results daily, with blog posts a majority of the days breaking down all the odds boosts on the major legal sports books. Weekends may be difficult with football still happening, but we will do our best. So how did we finish last season?

NBA Record 81-66 55.10%
NBA Playoff Record 18-11 62.06%
Hoops Parlay Record 45-38 +504
Hoops Odds Boosts 68-128 +1310
Hoops Player Props 4-4 +330
NBA Model Playoff Record 41-41 50%
NBA Model Highest Rated 74-69 51.74%
NBA Model 517-500 50.83%

In terms of our plays we gave out, we did very well. The plays we recommended finished at just over 55%. In the playoffs, we ended up at 62%. We finished positive on parlays, odds boosts and player props for a combined +2144. While the model was just above 50% in total, it was only year one, but we have more than enough data now. We are ready for the long journey that is the NBA season. So please join us. The NFL is one thing and is not as relentless as is the NBA. There are not days off between now and All-Star Break. Read, share, hit us up on Twitter and of course until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

NBA Model Plays
BRK +1.5
GSW +3

Normally, in this section we would mention the highest rated in the model and recommend a wager. However, nothing is that highly rated in the model tonight.

Basketball Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
Nets to win both the first quarter and match +220 (FD)
Match? What is this soccer? As you are aware from football, I do not recommend betting timed boosts. The Nets have no motivation to win the first quarter. Pass.

The King Vs. The Chef (DK)
Here is how this works. Place a $50 money line wager on either team. You then get a $2 free bet for every point the star player for the team you picked scores. If you bet the Lakers, you get LeBron. If you bet the Warriors, you get Curry.
I am looking at this as essentially a free wager.
$50 on the Lakers nets you $31.25.
$50 on the Warriors nets you $70.
LeBron’s player prop for points is set to 23.5 and the under is slightly juiced.
Curry’s player prop is set to 33.5.
If we use 23 points as LeBron’s base number here, if the Lakers lose you would not break even in terms of free bets if LeBron scores at his prop number. The 23 points would net you $46 in free bets for a loss of $4. Conversely, if you take Curry and he finishes with 33 points, again right at his number, you would earn $66 in free bets. As long as Curry scores 25 points you would break even on this entire transaction. The optimal play here is to bet the Warriors money line, with the expectation that even if they lose you would be refunded in the form of free bets via Curry’s offensive output. I am in on a free wager on the Warriors and the Curry side here.

Russ to record a triple double +280 (DK)
Russ is +250 to record a triple-double tonight. This is a very small boost all things considered. This is his first game, with a brand new team and he is undoubtedly the third option. I think Russ may actually thrive here. My main concern is rebounds with both LeBron and Anthony Davis here. Russ’s rebound prop is set to 9.5 and the under is heavily juiced. Frankly, so is his assist prop. You can parlay Russ to go over each prop and score 10+ points on Fan Duel at +277. You can tell where this is going. This is not a boost worth betting, as it is miniscule. Pass.


KD and Harden to combine for 60+ points +160 (DK)
KD’s point prop is set to 29.5.
Harden’s point prop is set to 25.5.
Yes, while this boost is combined, you can parlay the two of them to score 30+ for a much better price of +484. Pass for me. When it is combined it is usually better to bet them separately or parlayed like this.

Giannis and AD 2+ Dunks +125 (Fox)
These dunk boosts kill me. Yes, I can find dunk data, but I hate these.
Giannis averages 2.91 dunks per game.
AD averages 1.5 dunks per game.
See, these are always tricky. You are asking AD to for sure have two dunks, as Giannis should get there. I am passing. I hate having to worry about dunks.


Nets and Lakers to win +225 (Fox)
This parlay pays +229 over on FD. Easy pass on this boosts.


Giannis/Lebron/KD to score 25+ Each +300 (Fox)
KD’s point prop is set to 29.5.
LeBron’s point prop is set to 23.5.
Giannis’s point prop is set to 30.5 and the over is slightly juiced.
This parlay should pay +221. Therefore, this is a boost and two of the players are expected to exceed this number relatively easily. Both KD and Giannis to score 25+ is -430 or higher.
These two teams played four times last season. LeBron scored 19, 19, 22 and 22. The market expects LeBron under 25. The data from last season suggest he should fall under 25 as well. I am passing. If you want to fire, you can though. The reason is that you are almost getting the over on LeBron at +300, provided nothing weird happens in the early game. Like I said, you can fire, but I am passing.

KD and Giannis to each score 30+ +250 (Barstool)
This should pay +187.
KD’s point prop is set to 29.5.
Giannis’s point prop is set to 30.5 and the over is slightly juiced.
This is a fair boost if you want to play it. You are asking both people to hit the over on their prop and if you think that happens then fire this up. I am taking a wait and see approach here with the new look Nets.

NBA
BRK +1.5
Am I the only one who remembers the Nets would have crushed them if James Harden was healthy? The Nets are deep and good and I think despite the ring and banner ceremony, come out of this with a win.

Let’s Get Weird
Nothing at this time.

NBA Record 2020-2021
NBA Record 81-66 55.10%
NBA Playoff Record 18-11 62.06%
Hoops Parlay Record 45-38 +504
Hoops Odds Boosts 68-128 +1310
Hoops Player Props 4-4 +330
NBA Model Playoff Record 41-41 50%
NBA Model Highest Rated 74-69 51.74%
NBA Model 517-500 50.83%

The NBA is back tomorrow!

I know I mentioned this the other day, but the Buffalo Bills continue to break our computer model. The model loves the Bills tonight. Obviously, this is apparent because of the Bills appearing in the platinum section. It does feel like such a public bet though. I mean who is taking the Titans here. I will say this is a game coming off a big win for the Bills. It is almost as if Buffalo won the Super Bowl last week and now has to get up for a game against a bad Titans team on the road. It is an easy let down spot. As the line climbs it feels like a Buffalo wins and does not cover spot to me. I am staying away.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

Computer Model Plays
Platinum
BUFF -5.5

Premium


Regular Plays

Football Odds Boost You Should Consider Betting

Fan Duel
$10 Same Game Parlay. If it loses, you are refunded in site credit. Always, take the risk free stuff.

1+ TD scored in each quarter +160
I do not bet timed boosts per usual.

Henry and Diggs to score 1+ TD +300
This should pay +218 and is a pretty solid boost. The Titans secondary is awful and Henry is -165 for anytime TD. Fine, I am reluctantly jumping on this. I am in. If the Titans get anywhere close you know who is getting the ball.

Draft Kings
$25 Same Game Parlay is back! That means if you lose it is refunded as a $25 bet.

Allen and Henry to combine for 450+ Pass and Rush Yards +350
Allen’s passing prop is set to 289.5.
Allen’s rushing prop is set to 31.5.
Allen’s combination is set to 321 yards.
Henry’s rushing prop is set to 95.5 yards.
It is expected that their total hover around 416.5 yards.
What is difficult here is that if Allen throws for bunch of yards and the Bills score that would not be beneficial for Henry, as teams that fall behind tend to throw more. Yes, it is possible the Titans are the exception. Yet, I am fading this here. If Henry has a monster day, that means Allens and Bills offense is off the field while the Titans are grinding clock. Pass.

First score of game to be a FG +185
Ehhhh, either team to score a touchdown first is favored in this spot. This game has a massive total and the Titans secondary as I mentioned is awful. Pass for me. If you can find a site that gives out firsts scoring play as TD and it pays plus money, bet this boost and that same prop on whatever site that is. Pass on this alone.


Diggs to record a 40+ yard receiving TD +550
This is asking for a lot of things to break correctly. Pass for me.

Barstool Sportsbook
Reminder, never bet with barstool (Their employee boosts) and do not bet timed boosts for a quarter or half and needing to score.

Fox Bet
Allen and Henry to both score a rushing TD +250
Yeah, you can bet anytime TD for both of them parlayed on FD at +262. Easy pass.

The rest of the Fox Bet boosts are timed, or involve AJ Brown. Brown is going to be shadowed by Tre’Davious White. Pass for me.

NFL

College Football

Let’s Get Weird
Nothing at this time.

NFL Computer Model
Overall 41-52 44.08%
Platinum 3-6 33.33%
Premium 11-11 50%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 14-17 45.16%

Our Plays
NFL
Overall 14-7 66.66%
NFL Odds Boosts 8-21 -1215
NFL Teasers and Parlays 0-1 -100

College Football
Overall 6-1 85.71%
College Odds Boosts 2-0 +200

Combined
Overall 20-8 71.42%
Odds Boosts 10-21 -1015
Teasers and Parlays 0-1 -100

Sunday morning scramble!

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

Computer Model Plays
Platinum
ARZ +3
BUFF -5.5

Premium
CIN -3.5
HOU +9.5
SEA +4.5

Regular Plays
JAX +3.5
CHI +4.5
NYG +10.5
CAR +1
LAC +3
DEN -3.5
DAL -3.5

Football Odds Boost You Should Consider Betting

Fan Duel
$10 Same Game Parlay. If it loses, you are refunded in site credit. Always, take the risk free stuff.

Ind -2.5/KC TO WIN/LAR -1.5 +160
This is a decent boost as it should pay around +120. This is basically a teaser with these three teams.  The one I am struggling with is the Colts. I like Houston.


GB/MIN/Bal +350
Should be +300
Feels like a trap with Vikings road favorites feels off. Pass


Stafford 2+tds and over 50 points +200
This is essentially betting the over as stafford’s prop is set to 2.5 but the under is juiced heavily. It appears the expectation is that stafford throws 2 td’s. He’s been at 2 or more in every game but against Seattle. I am in.

Draft Kings
$25 Same Game Parlay is back! That means if you lose it is refunded as a $25 bet.

Mehhh on all their boosts. Many boosts with Justin Herbert this week out there. Normally when this happens, it is a bad sign for that player. Shockingly the books know what they are doing.

Barstool Sportsbook
Reminder, never bet with barstool (Their employee boosts) and do not bet timed boosts for a quarter or half and needing to score.

Fox Bet
GB/LAR/CIN to all win +200
This should pay +166 or so. It feels like Cincy is a very public side here and how dogs are something be aware of. I am passing.

NFL
BAL -2.5

CLE -3

HOU +9.5

College Football

Let’s Get Weird
Nothing at this time.

NFL Computer Model
Overall 36-46 43.90%
Platinum 2-6 25%
Premium 9-10 47.36%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 11-16 40.74%

Our Plays
NFL
Overall 13-5 72.22%
NFL Odds Boosts 8-20 -1115
NFL Teasers and Parlays 0-1 -100

College Football
Overall 5-1 83.33%
College Odds Boosts 2-0 +200 Combined
Overall 17-6 73.91%
Odds Boosts 9-18 -815
Teasers and Parlays 0-1 -100

It is Friday afternoon and the odds boosts are still not posted. I wonder why these sites continue to do this. Is there some benefit to waiting? If they are using these boosts to drive traffic to their sites and retain customers, they have an odd way of not advertising them. As always, if a site you use gives you an odds boost and you are unsure about it, just send us a tweet and we will respond. Despite a lack of odds boosts, we will continue and post our computer model. As always, make sure you head over to Numberball.com for all your DFS needs, as I will be on the NFL rundown show with Jeff Collins breaking down the games. Jeff will give the DFS perspective and I handle the betting side. I will tweet the link when it is available, but yes, you have to be a subscriber over on Numberball.

After a 5-0 week one in my picks contest, I have faltered to a meh 13-12 after five weeks. Removing Minnesota in week three right before lock was a mistake that I am still thinking about. Yet, after hitting the Eagles last night, I am only six games out of first at this moment.

This week has an odd feel with so many road favorites. As we know, dogs have cleaned up the start the year, but these things seem to even out by seasons end. I realize one of my plays has me kind of out on my own, but I really like the Ravens Sunday. It seems like a tough spot, short week against the team everyone is ready to anoint as the future. You can continue to run on the Chargers and the Ravens will do just that. This feels like the week the Chargers fourth down aggressiveness may run into some variance as they cannot run this hot the entire year. I love what they do, but hope they miss a few this week.

I have this feeling once Tua is cleared I find my way to Miami too this weekend.

As usual, I will update this article throughout the weekend and add odds boosts. I will post my plays for picks contest on twitter Sunday morning.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

Computer Model Plays
Platinum
ARZ +3
BUFF -5.5

Premium
CIN -3.5
HOU +9.5
SEA +4.5

Regular Plays
JAX +3.5
CHI +4.5
NYG +10.5
CAR +1
LAC +3
DEN -3.5
DAL -3.5

Football Odds Boost You Should Consider Betting

Fan Duel
$10 Same Game Parlay. If it loses, you are refunded in site credit. Always, take the risk free stuff.

Draft Kings
$25 Same Game Parlay is back! That means if you lose it is refunded as a $25 bet.

DK has a few college football boosts, but they are all alternate spread type boosts. Do you really want to bet Indiana to win by 6+ vs Michigan State? I am passing on all of these.

DK does offer a parlay boost, but no leg can be larger than -500. I understand why they are doing this, but at the same time that is extremely limiting in college, as a team could be -10 and the money line is above -500. I will look to see if there is anything, I like and will post if I play it.

Barstool Sportsbook
Reminder, never bet with barstool (Their employee boosts) and do not bet timed boosts for a quarter or half and needing to score.

Why would you bet the Brandon vs. Dave bet? Seriously, are people that loyal to the brand of Barstool? Pass.

Fox Bet
I hope you got your free $10 from the boosts last night. LOL.

NFL
BAL -2.5

College Football
PITT -5
In August I bet them to win the Coastal at 10/1. I added Pickett to win the Heisman at 50/1. It would follow I back them against here. VT’s QB has a hurt shoulder and if he cannot play the backup is also hurt.  Pitt is going to score, that I have no doubt. The defense is shaky, but this is a bet on the Pitt offense.

Let’s Get Weird
Nothing at this time.

NFL Computer Model
Overall 36-46 43.90%
Platinum 2-6 25%
Premium 9-10 47.36%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 11-16 40.74%

Our Plays
NFL
Overall 13-5 72.22%
NFL Odds Boosts 8-20 -1115
NFL Teasers and Parlays 0-1 -100

College Football
Overall 5-1 83.33%
College Odds Boosts 2-0 +200 Combined
Overall 17-6 73.91%
Odds Boosts 9-18 -815
Teasers and Parlays 0-1 -100

After what I am calling a disappointing week five, we are back for week six. Nothing is scarier than going against Tom Brady, but here we are. The Eagles have been very good on Thursday night’s and Brady has struggled to cover the number in primetime. Remember last year when we made fun of Brady’s 8:30 bedtime and wondered if that mattered. I think the Bucs secondary will matter even more tonight.

We will be back tomorrow with all of the computer model plays. On Tuesday, the NBA is back and so will our model and odds boosts breakdowns. I cannot wait!

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

Computer Model Plays
Platinum


Premium


Regular Plays
PHI +7

Football Odds Boost You Should Consider Betting

Fan Duel
$10 Same Game Parlay. If it loses, you are refunded in site credit. Always, take the risk free stuff.

Brady 300+ Passing Yards and TB to win +190
Brady’s passing prop is set to 300.5 yards.
This parlay should play +165. If you like, the Bucs tonight, this is a reasonable thing to play. I am on the Eagles so I am shying away from this, but this could easily happen. Brady has been over 300+ in three out of five games this year. If you think this game is competitive, you should highly consider this. I am passing, but mostly because I have the Eagles +7.

Draft Kings
$25 Same Game Parlay is back! That means if you lose it is refunded as a $25 bet. Last week I turned one of these free bets into a SGP win! It has ten selections and did not fit on a screen shot completely! The last leg was the Colts to fumble.

Brady to record a rushing or receiving TD +600
Brady is +600 on FD to score any anytime TD. This is an easy pass, as it is not a boost at all.


Hurts to record 350+ combined rushing and passing yards +135
Hurts rushing prop is set to 45.5 yards.
Hurts passing prop is set to 285.5 yards.
While I realize it is not combined, you could parlay the over on those two for +261.
Even if you look at some alternative lines, you could have Hurts over 25 rushing and over 325 passing and that pays +248. I want to mention that Hurts is also +320 to throw for 350+ passing yards. I think I would rather bet a different parlay combo, than this boost. Pass for me.


1+ Touchdown scored in each quarter +175
I do not bet timed boosts. Pass.

Barstool Sportsbook
Reminder, never bet with barstool (Their employee boosts) and do not bet timed boosts for a quarter or half and needing to score.

Hurts 1.5+ Passing TDs/Smith over 70.5 receiving yards/PHI +7.5 +375
Over 1.5 Td’s is heavily juiced at -150.
Smith’s prop is set to 73.5 yards.
Smith to have 70+ yards is -146.
This parlay should pay +396. You can find this parlay on a different site for a better price. As always, shop around. Pass here.

Fox Bet
Opt in and get your free $5 bet.

Brady and Hurts to have 300+ passing yards +300
This parlay should pay +276. Brady as I stated above gets there in competitive games. The exceptions were against the Pats in the rain, and when they beat the Falcons and had two straight pick sixes to inflate the score and keep the offense off the field. I think the Eagles keep this close and score tonight. I am in.


Evans/AB/Smith all 50+ receiving yards +200
All three players prop numbers are well above this. These are starting to feel like those NBA boosts of three payers to score 25+ and all of their props are slightly above the number. This parlay should pay +164. I am in. This game has a high total and Brady should be able to pass all over the Eagles zone. You know how I feel about Hurts and the Eagles throwing a ton tonight. I am in.

Hurts 250+ passing and 50+ rushing yards +200
This parlay should pay +193. Ehhhh, this is not much of a boost at all frankly. I am slightly worried about Smith rushing for plenty of yards tonight since the Bucs secondary is awful. I am out on this.

TB/Memphis/South Alabama to all win +200
This should pay +167. I am sure you are wondering, what the spreads are for the college games. Memphis is a sizable favorite, while SA is only a 2.5-point favorite tonight. This is an easy pass for me as I have zero interest being on South Alabama as a small favorite, when I know nothing about them.

NFL
PHI +7 (-115)
When I finally saw a Philly +7 I had to grab it despite the juice. Brady has struggled covering prime time games over the last three years and the Bucs secondary as we know is awful. If there was a game for the Eagles to throw it a ton, it is tonight. This line keeps bouncing around, wait for seven if you do not have that as an option right now.

BAL -2.5

College Football
Nothing at this time.

Let’s Get Weird
Nothing at this time.

NFL Computer Model
Overall 35-46 43.20%
Platinum 2-6 25%
Premium 9-10 47.36%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 11-16 40.74%

Our Plays
NFL
Overall 12-5 70.58%
NFL Odds Boosts 7-18 -1015
NFL Teasers and Parlays 0-1 -100

College Football
Overall 5-1 83.33%
College Odds Boosts 2-0 +200

Combined
Overall 17-6 73.91%
Odds Boosts 9-18 -815
Teasers and Parlays 0-1 -100

What a weird sports weekend that was. College football upsets weird NFL games and the Buffalo Bills dominating the Chiefs to cap the NFL Sunday. It was funny, the Bills +2.5 was the highest rated game in out model since the Seahawks/Broncos Super bowl a few years back. That was the first year we had a model and were not sure what that meant. We just created it for ourselves. Yet, many years later, we finally saw numbers that high. Normally, if I see something that is far off, I assume it is incorrect. I mean, when everything else fits in a tiny box and something destroys the box, you will hesitate to put it in it. Yet, twice now, the model has given numbers that strong, although they were seven years apart.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

Computer Model Plays
Platinum


Premium


Regular Plays
IND +7

Football Odds Boost You Should Consider Betting

Fan Duel
$10 Same Game Parlay. If it loses, you are refunded in site credit. Always, take the risk free stuff.

Ravens and Colts to each score 1+ Rushing and 1+ Passing TDs +250
Ehhhhh, these boosts have been awful and not coming through. The Colts have only accomplished this feat one time in four games. The Ravens defense is still pretty strong. Pass for me.


Hollywood Brown to score a TD +230He will be open for a deep TD, but will he catch it? He is +120 to score an anytime TD. I do not know, I think the Ravens run it a ton as they want to. Pass for me, but this is a solid boost.

Draft Kings
Ravens to record 150+ Rushing yards +120
If you believe the Ravens will win and be ahead, this makes a lot of sense. I think Baltimore is primed to have a great rushing night as the Colts have given up 140, 101, 180, and 35 rushing yards. The 35 was against the Dolphins last week and the only time the Colts were ahead in a game. I am going to back one of the best rushing offensives in the league tonight. I am in.

10+ Points scored in 1^st Quarter +105
Pass on timed boosts.


Taylor to record 75+ rushing yards +230
His prop total is 59.5 yards.
Taylor to rush for 80+ pays +194. This is a pretty solid boost.
No running back has gone over 60+ yards against the Ravens. Pass.

Barstool Sportsbook
Reminder, never bet with barstool (Their employee boosts) and do not bet timed boosts for a quarter or half and needing to score.

Raven to lead after every quarter +160
I do not bet timed boosts. While it seems the Ravens should be ahead, there is no urgency that they be leading after the end of the first quarter. Pass.

Fox Bet
Lamar 200+ passing yards and 50+ rushing yards +100
Lamar has done this in three out of four games this season. This parlay should pay -101. I am in. Provided this game is semi-competitive, Lamar has done this often. I am ready to get hurt again on another boost like this.

NFL
Nothing at this time.

College Football
Nothing at this time.

Let’s Get Weird
Nothing at this time.

NFL Computer Model
Overall 34-46 42.5%
Platinum 2-6 25%
Premium 9-10 47.36%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 11-16 40.74%

Our Plays
Overall 12-5 70.58%
NFL Odds Boosts 6-17 -1015
NFL Teasers and Parlays 0-1 -100

College Football
Overall 5-1 83.33%
College Odds Boosts 2-0 +200

Family stuff still going on this week. Will be tweeting more than writing.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

Computer Model Plays
Platinum
DEN +1
BUFF +2.5

Premium
JETS +3
CIN +2.5
NO -2.5
ARZ -5.5

Regular Plays
LAR -2.5
DET +9.5
MIA +10.5
CAR -3.5
JAX +4.5
HOU +9
CHI +5.5
CLE +1.5
DAL -7
IND +7

Football Odds Boost You Should Consider Betting

Fan Duel
$10 Same Game Parlay. If it loses, you are refunded in site credit. Always, take the risk free stuff.

I do not like any of the boosts on FD this week.

Draft Kings
I do not like any of the boosts on DK this week. The Lance one does intrigue me though.

Barstool Sportsbook
Reminder, never bet with barstool and do not bet timed boosts for a quarter or half and needing to score.

Fox Bet
Eagles to score a passing and Rushing TD +100
I think the Eagles score some this week and get one of each.

NFL
JETS +3
LAC -2.5

College Football

Let’s Get Weird
Nothing at this time.

NFL Computer Model
Overall 26-39 40%
Platinum 1-5 16.66%
Premium 7-8 46.66%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 8-13 38.09%

Our Plays
Overall 11-4 73.33%
NFL Odds Boosts 6-16 -915
NFL Teasers and Parlays 0-1 -100

College Football
Overall 4-1 80%
College Odds Boosts 1-0 +100

Sort post for Thursday night as I have some family stuff going on this week. This weekend a full write up and bets will be back! Just be aware that Jalen Ramsey has really clamped down on DK Metcalf. Beware of any props involving DK!

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

Computer Model Plays
Platinum


Premium


Regular Plays
LAR -2.5

Football Odds Boost You Should Consider Betting

Fan Duel
$10 Same Game Parlay. If it loses, you are refunded in site credit. Always, take the risk free stuff.

Henderson/Carson/Kupp/DK to combine for 4+ TDs +320
DK has been locked down by Jalen Ramsey. This is an easy pass for me, as you are losing one of the players in DK. This game does have a large total though. Also, Carson may be limited with a neck issue. Pass for me.

Kupp or DK to score first TD +400
I would just rather bet Kupp, since DK has struggled with Ramsey. Pass.

Stafford and Wilson to each record 1+ TD pass in each half +500
I do not bet timed boosts.

Draft Kings
Lockett anytime TD +120
This basically +100 around all the sites. With Ramsey planning to shadow DK, that leaves Lockett in an advantageous situation. I think he gets in the end zone and I even bet him for first TD at +850ish.

Stafford and Kupp over .5 TDS 1^st Half
I do not bet timed boosts.

Russ 3+ Passing TDs +230
Russ’s prop is set to 1.5 the over is heavily juiced. With Carson trending towards not playing and the massive total here, I like this. I think Seattle plays well tonight and Russ can get here even if they lose. I am in.

Barstool Sportsbook
Kupp or DK first TD +435
Like I said beware DK.

Fox Bet
Kupp 1^st TD +750
He is +700 on another site, so not much of a boost. Pass.

Wilson and Stafford 260+ Passing Yards +100
Stafford’s prop is set to 305.5.
Russ’s prop is set to 268.5.
This is very solid and both guys should be able to get there. This game has a large total. If Carson is out for the Seahawks, then Russ may be asked to throw even more. I am in.

NFL

College Football

Let’s Get Weird
Nothing at this time.

NFL Computer Model
Overall 26-39 40%
Platinum 1-5 16.66%
Premium 7-8 46.66%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 8-13 38.09%

Our Plays
Overall 11-4 73.33%
NFL Odds Boosts 6-16 -915
NFL Teasers and Parlays 0-1 -100

College Football
Overall 4-1 80%
College Odds Boosts 1-0 +100

Good news, the picks I am giving out are 11-4 on the season. Bad News the computer model is off to a slow start. All of this adds up to me being 12-8 in the Draft King’s pick’em contest. The current leader is 16-5 with the Raiders tonight. Either way, I am right there after four weeks. Tonight is somewhat strange as the computer really likes the Raiders, but it is possible that the Chargers are just really good. When Dallas beat the Chargers, we wrote it off as a weird fluke of penalties and red zone turnovers, but now that Dallas continues to solidify how good they are, that is not a terrible loss at all.

I kind of like the Chargers, despite it going against the computer model. Yet, I am going to stay away. I did fire on an odds boost though and will of course be playing showdown on the major DFS sites.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

Computer Model Plays
Platinum


Premium
LVR +3.5

Regular Plays

Football Odds Boost You Should Consider Betting

Fan Duel
$10 Same Game Parlay. If it loses, you are refunded in site credit. Always, take the risk free stuff.

Derek Carr to have 1+ passing TDs in each half +200
I hate timed boosts. Pass.

Draft Kings
$25 Same Game Parlay. If it loses, you are refunded with a $25 free bet. You have to do these things.

Herbert to throw for 325+ Yards +190
This should pay +178. Herbert has been over this number in two of three games this season. Everyone has thrown on the Raiders because the Raiders have been scoring a ton. Herbert’s prop is set to 295.5 tonight. This is such a small boost that it is an easy pass for me.

Carr to have 325+ passing yards +280
This should pay +235. Carr has thrown for over 382 yards in each game this season. Carr’s prop is set to 281.5 tonight. I want to play this, I really do, but the Chargers defense has held QB’s in check. I may play something similar, but not this boost.

Allen and Williams to have 200+ receiving yards combined +260
This is pretty weird as you can parlay them to both go over 100+ receiving yards for +846. Yes, I know this is combined. Allen’s prop is set to 78.5 and Williams is set to 77.5. This is asking a lot, plus I would rather bet the parlay at a significantly better price. Pass.

Barstool Sportsbook
LAC to win and 50+ Points +200
The total is set to 51.5 points. This should pay +180 or so. I mean it is a boost and it is slightly under the total. If you think the Chargers win and there will be points, feel free to fire away.

Herbert over 291.5 Yards passing/Ekeler over 58.5 rushing yards/ Allen to score a TD/LAC to win +1000
This should pay around +940, so it is a boost. I would suggest you do a SGP on another site unless you want these exact numbers. I mean, this is fine, if you like it all, but ehh. Pass for me.

Fox Bet
Williams 70+ REC Yards and a TD +200
Williams is set to 77.5. Williams is +110 to score a TD.
This parlay should pay, +206. This is an easy pass. I am out.

Carr 300+ Passing Yards/2+ Passing TDs/LVR +3.5 +450
Over on another site you can parlay this for +610. This is an easy pass when you can get a better number at another location.

Waller/Allen/Williams 50+ Receiving Yards Each +150
Allen’s prop is set to 78.5 and Williams is set to 77.5.
Waller’s prop is set to 68.5.
If you parlay them to all get over 50+ yards receiving, it should pay +116. This is pretty solid and everyone is expected to be over this number. I am in.

NFL

College Football

Let’s Get Weird
Nothing at this time.

NFL Computer Model
Overall 26-38 40.62%
Platinum 1-5 16.66%
Premium 7-7 50%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 8-12 40%

Our Plays
Overall 11-4 73.33%
NFL Odds Boosts 6-15 -815
NFL Teasers and Parlays 0-1 -100

College Football
Overall 4-1 80%
College Odds Boosts 1-0 +100