When I scheduled my vacation for July I had no idea it would collide with the NBA finals, but here we are.

Hopefully, you had the Bucks in game three and I’ll be back to normal posting for game four.

First, I’m playing this boost tonight. Maybe Ohtani gets there himself and early! In terms of picking a winner I am going a little off the board and taking Gallo +360. (Yes, he’s the second favorite but people appear to be taking Ohtani or longer dogs.) Ohtani feels too chalky, while he would be the most fun person to win. I’m going another direction.

Let’s, get two winners tonight and build the pile!

Draft Kings has been attempting to do simple boost, which they thought would be easy winners. That has not been the case. Therefore, to make up for it tonight, they are offering the Suns money line at +100 with a max bet of $50. If you have been following, there is only one way to play this. I bet the max on that, and then bet $55 to win $50 on the Clippers +5.5. Why? If the Suns win by 1-5, points I win both wagers. If the Suns win and cover, I lose almost nothing. If the Clippers win out right, I lose nothing. This is a perfect scenario for an easy middle opportunity. I am going to happily take my chances and pick up a few extra dollars here. I always like getting this boosts, so I can happily bet and lose more on PGA. In this case, you have a solid five-point window to hit and win both wagers.

While the Suns seems like a lock to make the NBA finals, I would not recommend betting the Suns to win the title at +100. Yet, if you want to attack the Suns may I recommend Chris Paul to win finals MVP at +410. I realize Booker exists, but there is a world where Jrue Holiday shuts down Booker enough and the media give CP3 a career achievement award for MVP. I threw a little sprinkle on it, as it is entirely in play and a much better price than +100.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

NBA Model Plays
LAC +5.5

NBA Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
Booker to score 25+ and Suns to win +170 (FD)
Booker’s point prop is set to 26.5 and the over is juiced.
This parlay should pay +102.
Booker has been hovering around thus number in every game. I think there is a chance the Clippers may be done here, as this is a great set up. Due to the fact these games have been trending under, I am passing. Yet, you can fire here if you want.

Reggie Jackson to record 25+ combined points + assists +110 (DK)
This combo is set to 23.5 and the over is slightly juiced on FD. I mean, I suppose if you like it, this is kind of, in line with where it should be. I am not backing Reggie Jackson in an elimination game, but I have been wrong on that before. I am passing, as this is not really a boost.

PG and CP3 to score 15+ points +100 (Fox)
PG is getting there and CP3’s prop is set to 17.5 I am in. This is a weak $10 max bet for me though, thanks Fox Bet. I assume that is the case for everyone. I am in though.

MLB Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
Zero runs 1^st inning LAD/SF +120 (FD)
This should be -110, but we have watched as the Dodgers pitchers like giving up solo homeruns early. I am in here. We are due for an uneventful first inning.

Bauer 7+ K’s and LAD to win +125 (DK)
Bauer’s K prop is set to 8.5 and the under is significantly juiced.
Bauer to record 7k’s is -320 though.
However, this parlay should pay +117. This is not much of a boost at all. If you like it sure, but I am not rushing to bet something this small. Pass for me.

CHC/CWS to both win +320 (DK)
They always sneak in one dog, in this case the Cubs. This should pay +285. Easy pass for me, as I am not taking dogs in parlays.

NYY/CWS/CHC to all win +600 (Fox)
We know the Cubs are dogs and this parlay should pay +529. I am passing again for the same reasons as above.

HOU/STL/LAD to all win +250 (Barstool)
This should pay +218. All three are favorites and this feels like a good spot. However, the Cardinals have been awful. Some Pirates rookie that is not even good just no-hit them for five innings. I am not placing any money on the Cardinals at this time, despite this situation.

NBA
Nothing at this time.

MLB
Nothing at this time.

Let’s Get Weird
HOU/BOS ML Parlay +110
Houston is coming off a loss but massive favorites tonight. The Red Sox have won three straight and the Royals have lost five straight. I get two larger favorites in good spots at plus money. I am in.

Basketball
2020-2021 Season Record
NBA Record 76-65 53.90%
NBA Playoff Record 14-10 58.33%
Hoops Parlay Record 45-38 +504
Hoops Odds Boosts 65-123 +1460
Hoops Player Props 4-4 +330
NBA Model Playoff Record 37-34 52.11%
NBA Model Highest Rated 73-68 51.77%
NBA Model 513-493 50.99%

Baseball
2020-2021 Season Record
Baseball Overall Record 24-48 -707
Baseball Games 7-11 -651
Baseball Parlay Record 7-14 +104
Baseball Odds boosts Record 10-24 -160

I really thought the Clippers would win last night and frankly, they should have. That was one of the most bizarre sequences I can recall seeing in some time. Nevertheless, these entire playoffs have been bizarre. I fully expect something strange tonight.

I posted yesterday with Hawks +7.5 and even though it is eight around the industry at this time, I am staying locked in where I am. If you want to play the Hawks, go get a better number.

Draft Kings is offering the Bucks money line at +100 for $25 max. If you get this offer, you need to bet this for value. The Bucks are -400.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

NBA Model Plays
ATL +7.5

NBA Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
Giannis -10.5 PTS/REB/ASST over Trae +120 (FD)
Giannis’s combo is set to 51.5 and the over is juiced.
Trae’s combo is set to 41.5 and the over is ever so slightly juiced.
This is a fair number and price. I think Giannis smells what’s out there for him and he was fantastic in game seven. I think it continues tonight. I am in.

Draft Kings is offering the Bucks money line at +100 for $25 max. If you get this offer, you need to bet this for value. The Bucks are -400.

Giannis to score 34+ points +110 (DK)
Giannis’s points prop is set to 33.5 and the under is juiced. I mean, I suppose there could be a blowout here and the Hawks could go away. This is a slight boost, but I am passing. I understand if you want to fire, but I am staying away in game one.

Huerter to make 3+ Threes +155 (DK)
Red Velvet’s made threes prop is set to 2.5 and the under is heavily juiced. You can bet over at +128, so this is a boost, but I am passing. I want to see how this game one goes before investing a little more in the peripheral players.

Giannis and Trae 25+ points +100 (Fox)
Giannis and Trae 30+ points +200 (Barstool)
Giannis’s points prop is set to 33.5 and the under is juiced
Trae’s points prop is set 28.5.
The 25+ parlay should pay -201.
The 30+ boost should pay +181.
You can see the 25+ boost is well worth playing while the 30+ boost is a fade. I am in on the Fox 25+ boost as both guys are expected to get there.

Giannis top scorer +100 (Fox)
Giannis has the highest point prop by five points. I am in. I am taking advantage of this boost.

MLB Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
Zero runs scored SDP/LAD +100 (FD)
This game has a low total of 7.5 and this should pay -125. I am in. I am going to hope both pitchers start well, despite the fact Kershaw gave up a homerun in the first inning last night.

TB/MIA to both win +320 (DK)
This should pay +251. This includes one favorite and one dog. Meh, I am passing.

TB/MIA/NYY to all win +475 (Fox)
This should pay +447. I mean, are you really going to bet a parlay with the Marlins involved? Pass.

NBA
Nothing at this time.

MLB
Nothing at this time.

Let’s Get Weird
Nothing at this time.

Basketball
2020-2021 Season Record
NBA Record 76-65 53.90%
NBA Playoff Record 14-10 58.33%
Hoops Parlay Record 45-38 +504
Hoops Odds Boosts 64-121 +1660
Hoops Player Props 4-4 +330
NBA Model Playoff Record 35-31 53.03%
NBA Model Highest Rated 73-67 52.14%
NBA Model 511-490 51.04%

Baseball
2020-2021 Season Record
Baseball Overall Record 24-47 -607
Baseball Games 7-11 -651
Baseball Parlay Record 7-14 +104
Baseball Odds boosts Record 10-23 -060

Every time we get close to breaking through on MLB and there has been a setback. Considering the awful -1200 start to the year, climbing back to where we are is progress. Yet, we are not done yet. Tonight we are breaking through. It is happening!

Tonight’s NBA game is very fascinating. The Clippers came out flat in game one against the Jazz after a seven game series. They did the same in game one against the Suns. I expect some changes are made and rotations are tightened up. If the Clippers cannot get this one without CP3, this is going to be very difficult. In reality, no one expects the Clippers without KL to win the series, but I said that after he got hurt.

In terms of boosts tonight, the sites are giving us a ton of Booker and some Mann. Be careful of Mann as he has not been a massive scorer outside of one game. Ayton is not Gobert. I actually like the Clippers tonight.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

NBA Model Plays
LAC +5 (Highest Rated in Model)
ATL +7.5

NBA Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
Booker and PG to each score 30+ +210 (FD)
Booker’s point prop is set to 31.5 and the under is slightly juiced.
PG’s point prop is set to 30.5 and the over is slightly juiced.
This parlay should pay +164. I am in here. I think Booker can get his and PG will have to score as well. I think Clippers get this one tonight. I am in.

Ayton to record a double-double and Suns to win +215 (FD)
This should pay +182. This is a tiny boost and I like the Clippers tonight. Pass for me.


Booker to score 30+ and Suns to win +200 (DK)
Booker to score 30+ and Suns to win +150 (Barstool)
You need to shop around for numbers, even on odds boosts.
Booker’s point prop is set to 31.5 and the under is slightly juiced.
As the line for this game falls, this boost combo looks better. This parlay should pay +122. If you like the Suns, I think this makes sense. I do not though. Keep in mind the spread on this game has already fallen a point to five. Could it continue to drop? I am passing here.



Booker to score 40+ points +550 (DK)
Booker’s point prop is set to 31.5 and the under is slightly juiced.
This pays +500 on FD, so it is a boost, but I am passing. I like the Clippers and think Booker gets to 30 points.


Terrance Mann to make 3+ threes and Clippers to win +550 (DK)
Terrance Mann to make 2+ threes and Clippers to win +400 (Fox)
I want to like this one, but Mann only shoots around two or three shots from behind the arc a game. The aberration was the game everyone recalls against the Jazz.

Booker and PG to each make 3+ threes +300 (Fox)
Booker’s three prop is set to 2.5 and the under is juiced.
PG’s three prop is set to 2.5 and the under is heavily juiced. The over pays -104.
This parlay should pay +167. This is a decent boost and each guy is right around there prop number. Both guys do not shoot a crazy volume of threes, but a majority of their minutes this year involved other key guys who are obviously out. This is such a large boost I am jumping on it. I am in.

MLB Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
CHC/CWS to both win +170 (FD)
Two big favorites and this parlay should pay +128. I am in. The Pirates are awful, so this is betting the Cubs are +170 in my mind. Sign me up for getting s -215 favorite in that scenario. I am in.

HOU/NYY/DET to all win +350 (FOX)
They always throw one dog in there. They want us to bet real money on the Tigers? Pass.

NBA
LAC +5

MLB
Nothing at this time.

Let’s Get Weird
CWS/NYY ML Parlay +112
CWS/NYY/HOU ML Parlay +224

Basketball
2020-2021 Season Record
NBA Record 75-65 53.57%
NBA Playoff Record 13-10 56.52%
Hoops Parlay Record 45-38 +504
Hoops Odds Boosts 64-119 +1860
Hoops Player Props 4-4 +330
NBA Model Playoff Record 34-31 52.30%
NBA Model Highest Rated 72-67 51.79%
NBA Model 510-490 51.0%

Baseball
2020-2021 Season Record
Baseball Overall Record 24-43 -207
Baseball Games 7-10 -551
Baseball Parlay Record 7-11 +404
Baseball Odds boosts Record 10-23 -060

I do not care what has happened. I do not care about games four and five. I am on the Sixers. The Sixers are clearly better, but have no stamina. We ride together. We die together. Sixers in seven for life. (At least the next 48 hours.)

If the Jazz lose this game it is because Mitchell is not 100%, yet if that Clippers group does it again, I would be surprised. However, this last week has been nothing short of remarkable for surprises.

I am riding with the two best teams tonight. If they fall short, or cannot adjust to what has happened as their series have progressed, so be it.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

NBA Model Plays
PHI -2.5
UTA -2.5

NBA Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
Seth Curry and Trae to each make 3+ threes +200 (FD)
This should pay +155. This is right on the line of the prop for both guys. Trae would need to go over and Curry can miss his and still get there. I am passing as I have enough invested in the Sixers already.


Either PG or Mitchell to score 40+ +200 (FD)
Mitchell’s point prop is set to 32.5.
PG’s is set to 30.5.
This is an easy pass for me. Mitchell may be hurt and PG, well I need to see it more.

DK has two different Trae boosts, where is scores over or under 27.5 points and the Hawks win or lose. My real issue is that Trae could score over that and still lose. I am passing as I am on the Sixers, but think Trae may get there anyway.


PG to score 25+ and Clippers to win +160 (DK)
If you like the Clippers I would bet this. There is almost zero chance the Clippers win and he misses this mark. I am passing as I am on Utah, but you can fire.

PG and Embiid to score 30+ +150 (Fox)
PG’s point prop is set to 30.5.
Embiid’s point prop is set to 33.5 and the over is juiced.
This should pay +115 or so. Look, I think getting to 25+ is one thing, but 30+ is another. I am passing here, but it looks good and you can fire.

Embiid and Mitchell to score 32+ +200 (Fox)
Mitchell’s point prop is set to 32.5.
Embiid’s point prop is set to 33.5 and the over is juiced.
I want to believe Mitchell is healthy and can get all the way there. I am passing due to his semi-injury. Pass on this one. You can fire, but I am staying away.


Sixers/Clippers to both win +260 (Fox)
I am on Utah. Pass.

Embiid/Trae/PG/Mitchell to all score 25+ +150 (Barstool)
Mitchell’s point prop is set to 32.5.
PG’s point prop is set to 30.5.
Trae’s point prop is set to 27.5
Embiid’s point prop is set to 33.5 and the over is juiced.
This parlay should pay -115 or so. All three are expected to get there and this is a solid boost. I am ready to go down with the ship with these types of boosts. I am in.

MLB Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
TOR/MIL/LAD to all win +305 (DK)
This should pay around +240 and Baltimore just made a pitching change. You get three favorites, who will all have the best pitcher in the game. I am in.

ATL to win and over 8.5 Runs score +180 (DK)
Atlanta to win and over 8.5 runs should pay +178. All the tiny boosts! Pass, since this is so small.

NYM and NYY to win by 2+ runs +600 (DK)
The NYM are small dogs and the NYY are small favorites. This should pay +507 or so. I am passing as taking a dog and asking them to not only win, but win by an adjusted line is too much for me to get behind.

WAS/HOU/MIL to all win +475 (Fox)
Two tiny favorites and this parlay should pay +437. Meh, I hate then it is a few tiny favorites, or one dog. Pass for me.


MIL/LAD to both win +135 (Barstool)
This should pay +132. This is about as small of a boost as you can get! I am passing because it is such a small boost, but I do like both these teams tonight. Pass.

NBA
PHI -2.5
UTA -2.5

MLB
Nothing at this time.

Let’s Get Weird
LAA/LAD/SDP ML Parlay +238

Basketball
2020-2021 Season Record
NBA Record 74-64 53.62%
NBA Playoff Record 12-9 57.14%
Hoops Parlay Record 45-38 +504
Hoops Odds Boosts 64-118 +1960
Hoops Player Props 4-4 +330
NBA Model Playoff Record 33-27 55%
NBA Model Highest Rated 72-67 51.79%
NBA Model 509-486 51.15%

Baseball
2020-2021 Season Record
Baseball Overall Record 23-42 -245
Baseball Games 7-10 -551
Baseball Parlay Record 6-10 +366
Baseball Odds boosts Record 10-23 -060

The US Open is a little different from the other majors. Normally, it is the hardest course. Last year, I had Bryson for my best golf day ever. I won a small GPP on Fan Duel. I had bet Bryson to win at a fantastic number. I cashed every lineup I played that week as well. Since, DFS Golf is my worst sport by far; it was nice to finally win a GPP, even if it was a smaller single entry contest.

I still have not had a winner since late March in PGA and that can be frustrating, but that is what betting golf is all about. The Ricky Bobby method only applies here, which as you should know, “if you ain’t first, you’re last.” This does not apply to each-ways, or top 20 type of bets, but I am trying to hit the outright winner.

I am all about the sites having PGA odds boosts every week! If they do, I will continue to break them down as well. PGA betting is something I started a few years back and really enjoy. All you need is to hit one winner to have a great year, depending upon the price. Last year, obviously, I picked more than a few winners. I am going to list the other bets I continue to make of top 20’s, top 10’s, etc. I had only been listing my outrights, but I will now list everything.

We have plenty of odds boosts this week, but be aware that only the top 60 and ties make the cut. This is different than top 65 or top 70 that some other events have been.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

PGA
Justin Thomas 24/1 FD
Rory 22/1 DK
Kokrak 70/1 FD

I was very successful last year when guys started to have their numbers drift. In this case, I have not seen JT this low in a major even in some time. I feel the same way about Rory. Kokrak, well he is 50ish on basically every other site and I like him, and the number made it easier to throw a small sprinkle on.

Bryson/Sixers/Jazz Parlay 24/1 (Various)
I shopped this around to see the best option and every site has a similar price. Look, I have a Bryson problem. I cannot quit him. I am in again, but I want a better number, so here we go.

PGA Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
Will Z/Morikawa/Kokrak to all make the cut +250 (FD)
This should pay +140. You know I am on Kokrak and Will Z is also my guy. Morikawa I have bet and won on before, but this is a tough spot. This is such a large boost, but I am going to jump on it. I am in.

Any player to hit a Hole in one in round 1 +385 (DK)
I mean this is fun, but no. Pass.


DJ/Spieth/Finau to all make the cut +150 (DK)
DJ has been all over the place. I am lukewarm on this group. Pass for me.

Bryson to beat Brooks in round 1 +130 (DK)
Despite this being my guy, why would I attack someone else who plays extremely well on tough courses? Pass.

Any Euro to win +275 (DK)
I would rather bet an outright. Pass.


Phil to finish top 20 +400 (Fox)
God no.

Old Guys Boost to win +3200 (Barstool)
I am not listing these old guys because they will not win, especially back-to-back. Pass for me.

First major win Rahm/Hovland/Cantlay/Finau +500 (Barstool)
Nope, I would rather bet the outrights, per usual. This is a weird one. Pass.

DJ/Spieth/Xander to all make the cut +140 (Barstool)
Beware when multiple sites list the same guys in odds boosts. I am passing here. Xander is the safest of them all, but not a fan. I am not betting these guys.

PGA Odds Boost Record
4-10 -215


PGA Winners This Season

3/31
Jordan Spieth +1560 (DK)

3/11
JT 20/1


3/4/21
Bryson 13/1 (FD)


2/25
Collin Morikawa 45/1 (DK)


2/11
Berger (Live Sunday Morning) +550

PGA Winners I Bet Last Season 
6/28 Dustin Johnson 28-1 Travelers (Live bet him at 60/1 too)
8/2 Justin Thomas 10-1 WGC ST Jude (I had JT on 7/12 too and he lost in a playoff)
8/9 Morikawa 30-1 PGA Championship
8/23 Dustin Johnson 20-1 Northern Trust
9/20 Bryson DeChambeau 33-1 U.S. Open
10/25 Patrick Cantlay 30/1 ZoZo Championship

When you build a model adjusting for injury and situations can be paramount. During the NBA season, it is normal for news to break and situations to change, but it does not happen as it has today. Today was insane. If you really want to peel it back, the last 24 hours has been incredible and bizarre in the NBA. I have so many questions. Why was CP3 not vaccinated already? When did Kawhi get hurt? Was SVG that bad for the Pelicans? Should the Nets just take off game six and play for game seven? Only one of those issues comes in to play tonight. I think we all believe the Sixers are better and should beat the Hawks tonight. Now, it is clear the Jazz should roll over the Clippers in the next two days an advance. Everything does seem to be lining up for the Sixers and Jazz. Utah is the healthiest team and the Sixers, despite Embiid’s knee injury and in good shape. The Nets still may not get past the Bucks and will need healthier to get beyond the Sixers.

Therefore, we adjust for injury in our model. I put in the max adjustment metric we have and it grades out that Utah should be -10 at home against the Clippers without Kawhi.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

NBA Model Plays
PHI -7.5
UTA -7.5

NBA Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
3×2 into the sun FD. Pass as always.


PG to score 30+ and the Clippers to win +615 (DK)
This could pay +1600 and I would not be interested. A blowout is more likely. Pass.

Embiid to lead game in scoring +100 (Fox)
Embiid has the highest prop of anyone in this game by several points and after his second half meltdown last game, I expect him to rebound with a huge game. I hope your max bet is more than mine is. I am in.

PHI/LAC to both win +400 (Fox)
Nope. This done for the Clippers. Easy Pass.

MLB Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
deGrom to record 8+ K’s and NYM to win +110 (FD)
deGrom’s K prop for tonight is 9.5 and the under is juiced. Guess what he can miss that prop and still be fine here.  This should pay -119 as a parlay, so this is a solid boost. I am in.

LAD/SF to win +200 (FD)
Two favorites with and in solid spots. This should pay +162. I am in.

Cole 8+ K’s and NYY to win +170 (DK)
Cole’s K prop is 8.5 and the under is massively juiced. This is right on the line of his predicted total and it should pay +143. While I am on the NYY, I am passing on this. If this was 7+ K’s I would be in.

TOR/ATL/HOU to all win +500 (Fox)
They always sneak a dog in and they did it with Toronto. I am not going against Cole tonight, despite the new “pitching” rules. Pass.

NYY/NYM/LAD to all win +295 (Barstool)
This should pay +247. Alright, we know baseball is messing with the pitchers, but this is a solid spot. We get the best pitcher by far and favorites in every game. I am in.

NBA
UTA -7.5
I have watched Utah blowout inferior teams this entire season. Here we go again.

UTA/PHI ML Parlay -130

MLB
Nothing at this time.

Let’s Get Weird
Sixers/Jazz/NYM to all win +141 (DK)
I shopped around and this is the best price for this wager. The Sixers and Jazz are both going to win and the NYM have the Cy Young winner pitching. I am in.  

Basketball
2020-2021 Season Record
NBA Record 74-63 54.01%
NBA Playoff Record 12-8 60%
Hoops Parlay Record 45-37 +604
Hoops Odds Boosts 64-117 +2060
Hoops Player Props 4-4 +330
NBA Model Playoff Record 33-25 56.89%
NBA Model Highest Rated 72-67 51.79%
NBA Model 509-484 51.25%

Baseball
2020-2021 Season Record
Baseball Overall Record 22-40 -155
Baseball Games 7-10 -551
Baseball Parlay Record 6-10 +366
Baseball Odds boosts Record 9-21 +030

In some cases, your bet can be dead almost after the game starts. I might be in that situation tonight. I like the Nets. The model likes the Nets. I believe James Harden is healthy and was being kept out of this series because the Nets did not need him. Now they need him. The public will be all over the Bucks tonight because of the uncertainty in Harden and Kyrie being out. Uncertainty creates value. Up until the moment Kyrie got hurt in game four, if I told you the Nets would be +2.5 at home in game five you would have thought I was lying. Sometimes you have to bet with what you believe. Two years ago, I believed the Raptors were better than the Warriors were. Tonight I believe Harden will be fine and the Nets win. Of course, I could be wrong and be dead in five minutes if Harden’s hamstring is not right. This is what sports betting is all about. What do you believe? I am on Brooklyn and a few odds boosts revolving around the Nets.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

NBA Model Plays
BRK +2.5

NBA Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting3×2 FD? People must love betting on this.

KD to score 30+ and the Nets to win +210 (FD)
KD’s point prop is set to 34.5 points but the under is juiced. This parlay should pay +148. I think this all comes down to what you believe. I Think Kyrie swapped for Harden is an upgrade, but how good to go is Harden. I think Harden will be ready to play and maybe him sitting was precautionary. Notice as soon as he was needed he went from out, to playing very fast. I think Harden is much more important that Kyrie and the Nets win tonight. I am in.

Nets to lead at half time and win the game +300 (DK)
If I think Harden is good to go, why not fire here? I get a live dog who has vastly outplayed the Bucks the entire series. The Nets hat to shoot historically bad to lose one of the games and then had Kyrie get hurt, which essentially started the downfall in game four. Nets get back on track tonight. I am in.

Giannis and KD to combine for 100+ PTS/REB/AST +110 (Barstool)Giannis’s combo is set to 50.5 and the under is slightly juiced.
KD’s is set to 49.5.
As you can see this is right on the line here. However, what has happened in these games? They have all trended under. Of course, the players can still hit their individual numbers, but it is not shocking to know that a higher total games have more likelihood of players hitting prop overs. The total here is 221 points. I am passing on this. It is barely a boost and is the case with this combined props, you are usually better parlaying them to both go over.

MLB Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
NYY/ATL/CWS all to win +700 (Fox)
The NYY are small dogs against the red hot offense of the Toronto Blue Jays. Both Atlanta and the White Sox are small favorites tonight. This parlay should pay +619. I think you know by now that including three coin flip games like this is risky, especially with a small dog involved. Pass for me.

NBA
BRK +2.5 I think it is clear how I think this goes.

MLB
Nothing at this time.

Let’s Get Weird
Nothing at this time.

Basketball
2020-2021 Season Record
NBA Record 73-63 53.67%
NBA Playoff Record 11-8 57.89%
Hoops Parlay Record 45-37 +604
Hoops Odds Boosts 63-116 +1950
Hoops Player Props 4-4 +330
NBA Model Playoff Record 32-25 56.14%
NBA Model Highest Rated 72-67 51.79%
NBA Model 508-484 51.20%

Baseball
2020-2021 Season Record
Baseball Overall Record 22-40 -155
Baseball Games 7-10 -551
Baseball Parlay Record 6-10 +366
Baseball Odds boosts Record 9-21 +030

If you noticed, the books are making a killing on odds boosts. They have been coming in with less and less frequency as the regular season ended and the playoffs began. Some of this has to do with games getting out of hand. Some of it has to do with the books using a player’s regular season numbers to base their props off. Of course, a majority of the stars are playing more minutes, but the games are much more intense. Yet, we will continue to break them down, but be aware.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

NBA Model Plays
NET +3.5
LAC +3

NBA Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
KD +3.5 PTS/REB/ASST vs. Giannis +130 (FD)
KD’s combo is set to 47.5.
Giannis’s combo is set to 51.5 and the over is heavily juiced.
This price makes sense since you are getting the worst of it. So, I want to bet the Bucks. I really do. Nevertheless, I am scared. This should be a no-brainer spot to back the backs at home, but they looked so awful. I am passing here as I expect Giannis to be at his best, or this is a four-game series.


KD and Kyrie to combine for 65+ Points +200 (FD)
KD’s point prop is set to 32.5 and the under is slightly juiced.
Kyrie’s point prop is set to 28.5 and the under is juiced.
I hate the combined props, as you know. This is an easy pass as I believe the Bucks show some backbone.

KD and Kyrie to each score 30+ points +260 (DK)
KD’s point prop is set to 32.5 and the under is slightly juiced.
Kyrie’s point prop is set to 28.5 and the under is juiced.
If you parlay them to both score 30+ it pays +244. The story of this series has been the Nets other players scoring points. Since I am worried the Bucks, you know show up and compete a little, I am fading this. It also is barely a boost. Pass.


Gobert to record 3+ Blocks +115 (DK)
Gobert averages around 2.7 blocks per game. This is a weird boost. I am passing, but I get it if you want to fire.

KD and Mitchell to each score 25+ points +100 (Fox)
My max bet is $10, which I assume it is for most people on this super boost.
KD’s point prop is set to 32.5 and the under is slightly juiced.
Mitchell’s point prop is set to 30.5.
Normally, these boosts with low limits are a free $10 and this is set up the same way. Both guys should get there. I am in. I realize these types of boost have been losing though.

Nets and Jazz to both win +310 (Fox)
This parlay should pay +300. Some boost. This is an easy pass as I think either the Bucks or Clippers win tonight. Unless, Mike Conley magically plays in Utah. Pass.

Each team to score 110+ UTA/LAC +165 (Barstool)
The Clippers team total is set to 110.5.
The Jazz team total is set to 112.5.
If you parlay them to both go over their team total number it should pay +202. Of course, that means the Jazz went over the number they need by three points. This number is actually, either right in line with what it should pay, or slightly low. I am passing.

Each Player to score 25+ KD/Giannis/Mitchell/Kawhi +170 (Barstool)
KD’s point prop is set to 32.5 and the under is slightly juiced.
Mitchell’s point prop is set to 30.5.
Kawhi’s point prop is set to 28.5 and the under is juiced.
Giannis’s point prop is set to 33.5 and the under is juiced.
This should pay out at around -105. Obviously, this is a solid boost and everyone should get there. Every player has a prop number well above what is expected. These boosts have been getting crushed, but our process in making the wagers remains correct. This is a boost; the players are expected to be in the range or higher. I am in.

MLB Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
Scherzer to record 9+ K’s and Nats to win +200 (FD)
The Nats are solid -180 favorites tonight. Max’s K prop is set to 8.5 and the over is heavily juiced. This parlay should pay +180. Max averages around 8.5 K’s per-game with some outliers on both sides of that number. This is a smaller boost, but a correlated parlay I am interested in. You would assume Max getting to this number means the Nats have a great chance to win. I am in.

Scherzer to record 10+ K’s +155 (DK)
Max’s K prop is set to 8.5 and the over is heavily juiced. Max is +125 to record 10+K’s tonight. This is right on the border, I think nine is the appropriate number, but this is boosted and you can fire, but be aware Max has 10+ K’s in only three of 12 starts this season. I am passing. If the number is nine than he has done it in eight of 12 starts.

NATS/BOS/NYY to all win +430 (Fox)
This should pay +420 and two of the teams are tiny favorites. This is barely a boost, so I am passing. If you liked the teams before, I suppose you could fire, but meh.

BOS/OAK to both win +240 (Barstool)
Boston was one of the tiny favorites I mentioned above. Oakland is a little larger of a favorite, but this parlay should pay +218. The Red Sox are in a coin flip game and if you like, it you can fire. I am passing.

NBA
I want to bet the Bucks, I really do. However, after the last two games who knows if they even show up.

MLB
Nothing at this time.

Let’s Get Weird
Nothing at this time.

Basketball
2020-2021 Season Record
NBA Record 73-63 53.67%
NBA Playoff Record 11-8 57.89%
Hoops Parlay Record 45-37 +604
Hoops Odds Boosts 62-115 +1650
Hoops Player Props 4-4 +330
NBA Model Playoff Record 27-21 56.25%
NBA Model Highest Rated 72-66 52.17%
NBA Model 503-480 51.16%

Baseball
2020-2021 Season Record
Baseball Overall Record 22-40 -155
Baseball Games 7-10 -551
Baseball Parlay Record 6-10 +366
Baseball Odds boosts Record 9-21 +030

Yesterday was the last day of school and we attended a pool party after the early dismissal. Why kids go to school for three hours the last day is beyond me. Yet, I tweeted some things out and somehow the Jazz pushed and the Sixers won easily. Tonight, I really like Denver. I know their backcourt is in rough shape against CP3 and Booker, but I keep going back to who stops Jokic, especially if Ayton gets in foul trouble. Maybe I am wrong, but six feels like a lot of points, and the computer model agrees.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

NBA Model Plays
DEN +6 (Highest Rated in Model)

NBA Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
3×2 boost, nope.


Booker and Ayton to combine for 50+ points +250 (FD)
Booker’s point prop is set to 28.5.
Ayton’s point prop is set to 16.5.
These two are expected to combine for 45 points tonight. I believe Ayton could get into foul trouble and although he is playing a lot better than he has during his young career. As you know, I do not like this combined props and would rather bet a parlay over the players to hit the over. Pass for me.



Suns and Nuggets to combine for 30+ made 3’s +160 (DK)
These two teams combined for 27 made 3’s in game one. In game one 227 points were scored. This game has a total of 223.5 points. I think this is right on the border, but I am passing. I like Denver tonight, but this is a lot of threes.

Booker to score 25+ points and Suns to win +115 (Barstool)
This should pay -112 and if you like the Suns fire away. Booker’s prop is set to 28.5. I am passing as I am on Denver tonight, but you can go ahead. Pass for me.

MLB Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
NYY and CWS to both win +200 (FD)
Both are favored and have the better pitcher in the game. This parlay should pay +149. I am in. Slowly, we have climbed out of the negative and are looking to punch through into the positive for MLB! I hope we get there tonight!


Wednesday Mystery Boost (DK)
I got Jesse Winker to hit a HR boosted to +530. Pass for me, HR boosts and betting players to hit a HR are a way to lose cash, fast.

PHI/LAD/CIN to all win +450 (Fox)
This is also a pretty good one. All three are favored, but two of them are smaller favorites. I am not looking to bet several ML parlay’s on the same night. Pass for me, but you can fire, as this should pay +377.

NBA
DEN +6

MLB
Nothing at this time.

Let’s Get Weird
Nothing at this time.

Basketball
2020-2021 Season Record
NBA Record 73-62 54.07%
NBA Playoff Record 11-7 61.11%
Hoops Parlay Record 45-37 +604
Hoops Odds Boosts 62-115 +1650
Hoops Player Props 4-4 +330
NBA Model Playoff Record 27-20 57.44%
NBA Model Highest Rated 72-65 52.55%
NBA Model 503-479 51.22%

Baseball
2020-2021 Season Record
Baseball Overall Record 22-39 -055
Baseball Games 7-10 -551
Baseball Parlay Record 6-9 +466
Baseball Odds boosts Record 9-21 +030