I just made some game wagers and did not play any boosts this weekend. I can see that some of the Harden boosts and wagers were refunded, but between that and the Rahm situation, what a weird weekend for sportsbooks.

Tonight we have two games with closer spreads and one game with a larger total than the other does. The Bucks/Nets game should obviously be much higher scoring. You would think the Bucks would rebound tonight, especially without James Harden. I think the Nuggets hang around the Suns all night and are capable of winning. Dare I say I want to bet both dogs? The computer model actually backs me on this, so here we go.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

NBA Model Plays
MIL +1.5
DEN +5 (Highest Rated in Model)

NBA Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
Fan Duel continues to offer these 3×2 boosts and yeah, it is a no from me.

Brooklyn and Phoenix to both win +205 (FD)
I am on the Bucks and Nuggets tonight. This parlay should pay +189, so you can play it if you like this combo. I am out though.


Nets to win the first half and the game +175 (DK)
I am on the Bucks and Nuggets tonight. If you like the Nets, this makes sense, but I am out.


Booker and Jokic to score 30+ each +280 (DK)
Jokic’s point prop is set to 30.5 and the over is juiced.
Booker’s point prop is set to 29.5 and the over is juiced.
This parlay should pay +196. This is a solid boost and both players are expected to score in this range. I am in. I want to see who and how the Suns defend Jokic, but we know the Nuggets struggled with a guard who can score in their last series. Fire this up.

Giannis/Kyrie/Durant to score 25+ each +100 (Fox)
Giannis’s point prop is set to 34.5 and the under is juiced.
KD’s point prop is set to 32.5 and the under is juiced.
Kyrie’s point prop is set to 29.5 and the under is juiced.
This parlay should pay -143. This is very solid and all three guys should be able to get there. I am in. I hope your max bet is larger than mine is.


Bucks and Suns to both win +245 (Fox)
I am on the Bucks and Nuggets tonight. This is a solid boost as it should pay +189. Yet, I am out because I am going the other way in one of those games. Pass for me.


Giannis and Jokic to score 35+ +400 (Fox)
Giannis’s point prop is set to 34.5 and the under is juiced.
Jokic’s point prop is set to 30.5 and the over is juiced.
This parlay should play +443. This is an easy pass since a parlay on Fan Duel pays more than this boost.

Giannis and KD to score 30+ each +110 (Barstool)
Giannis’s point prop is set to 34.5 and the under is juiced.
KD’s point prop is set to 32.5 and the under is juiced.
This parlay should pay, -108. This is a fantastic boost and both players can miss their prop number by several points. I am in.

MLB Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
BOS/KC/CHC to all win +650 (Fox)
This features two dogs and a favorite. This boost also pays +657 on Fan Duel, so this is an easy pass.

NBA
MIL +1.5
DEN +5

MLB
Nothing at this time.

Let’s Get Weird
Nothing at this time.

Basketball
2020-2021 Season Record
NBA Record 72-60 54.54%
NBA Playoff Record 10-5 66.66%
Hoops Parlay Record 45-37 +604
Hoops Odds Boosts 61-111 +1950
Hoops Player Props 4-4 +330
NBA Model Playoff Record 27-18 60%
NBA Model Highest Rated 72-64 52.94%
NBA Model 502-477 51.27%

Baseball
2020-2021 Season Record
Baseball Overall Record 22-39 -055
Baseball Games 7-10 -551
Baseball Parlay Record 6-9 +466
Baseball Odds boosts Record 9-21 +030

If you followed my tweet for a few weeks ago, you have the Mavs +320 and Mavs in six games at +900. I have been deciding what to do as a possible hedge situation. I think I am letting it ride. I ran through all the scenarios of how to lock up a win, but I really just think Dallas is better. The one scenario I debated is the following.

Hypothetically, to make the math easy let’s say I have $100 on Dallas and $100 on Dallas to win in six games. I have $200 invested in the Mavs in this case. If I bet something like $100 on the Clippers at+140 to win the series, it would lessen my losses for sure. However, if Dallas then wins in seven games, it would really hurt my gains.

If Dallas wins in seven games, I would win $320, but lose $200 in my Dallas in six games and Clippers to win the series hedge. That is meh to me. If I hedge with the Clippers to win the series, I would either win $120 or lose $60. That is too tight of a window and I believe I am on the correct side. I am into hedging to lock up a win, but in this case, the Mavs in six bet complicates that. I think Dallas gets it done tonight. I am not hedging.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

NBA Model Plays
DAL +3

NBA Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
Dallas to win and 210+ total points scored +275 (FD)
The total in this game is 216.5 and the Mavs are a three-point dog.
This parlay should pay +200. They have gone over 210 in only three out of the first five games. Man, is this juicy. I have so much invested in Dallas already with my Mavs to win the series at +320 and Mavs to win in six games at +900. I am passing here, but if you like, Dallas this is a great spot. I have been deciding upon hedging and how to hedge, but I am passing on this one, but obviously cheering for the Mavs tonight.

LAC ML boosted to +100 (DK)
The LAC are -143 to win tonight. This is a very good boost if you think the Clippers win tonight. I just cannot. I need the Mavs to win and I want the Mavs to win. This may be part of my hedging I do, or not. I want to let it ride.

Luka to outscore Kawhi -110 (DK)
Luka’s point prop is set to 31.5.
Kawhi’s point prop is set to 29.5.
This is a solid boost if you want to be all in on Luka tonight. I am passing here, but mainly because this is such a small boost. Luke is expected to win this battle though.

Luka and Kawhi to combine for 60+ points +100 (Fox)
Luka’s point prop is set to 31.5.
Kawhi’s point prop is set to 29.5.
Obviously, Luka has smashed this number but it is Kawhi I am worried about. I have no idea what is happening with this Clippers team, but I am fading this combined boost. I would rather parlay their overs together as usual.  


Luka to record 50+ Points/Assists/Rebounds +300 (Barstool)
Luka’s combo is set to 48.5 and the over is juiced. In the first five games, Luka has reached: 64, 31, 62, 53, 52. The 31 came in the game four that Luka appeared to be hurt and the game got a little out of hand. I believe in the Mavs and I believe in Luka. I am in. This is only asking him to go over by such a small amount and boosted to a great number.

MLB Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
NYY and CWS to both win +250 (FD)
This parlay should pay +189, but I do not like backing a questionable pitcher for the Yankee against the Red Sox offense. I am passing.

CWS/MIL/LAA to all win +305 (DK)
All three of these teams are larger favorites, but this parlay should pay +287. I have shied away from these three teamers because they always include a dog. Tonight we have three favorites and I am actually jumping in. I am in. I get the better team and the better pitcher in every spot.

NBA
Nothing at this time.

MLB
Nothing at this time.

Let’s Get Weird
Nothing at this time.

Basketball
2020-2021 Season Record
NBA Record 72-60 54.54%
NBA Playoff Record 10-5 66.66%
Hoops Parlay Record 45-37 +604
Hoops Odds Boosts 61-110 +2050
Hoops Player Props 4-4 +330
NBA Model Playoff Record 27-16 62.79%
NBA Model Highest Rated 72-64 52.94%
NBA Model 502-475 51.38%

Baseball
2020-2021 Season Record
Baseball Overall Record 21-39 -360
Baseball Games 7-10 -551
Baseball Parlay Record 5-9 +161
Baseball Odds boosts Record 9-21 +030

This is a very strange night in the NBA. The East is set and ready to go, while the West is in flux. The times of the games is almost as strange as the events in the West. Portland and Denver will tip at 5:15 PM Local time, which is of course 8:15 in the East. This is a very weird start time and I am not completely sure how we ended up with two Western Conference games on the same night like this. I have not and will continue to not believe in the Blazers. Dame did everything he could and he only missed seven shots, yet, the Blazers lost. I know Portland at home is a different animal. I believe the Nuggets know exactly whom they are and what they need to do. I am on Denver tonight.

Will Anthony Davis play tonight? He has to right. Right? Everyone who has played DFS NBA knows that AD is often injured and has left more games early than plenty of other players. The Lakers need Davis to not only show up tonight, but also be good. If AD is not 100%, the Suns will win and create and very interesting Western Conference bracket. I said it felt weird to go against LeBron in game five and it feels just as weird here. Frankly, I cannot do it. I am just passing on the game, but the computer model likes the Suns.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

NBA Model Plays
PHO +2.5
DEN +5 (Highest Rated in the Model)

NBA Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
3×2 NO Thanks Fan Duel

Dame and Jokic to combine for 70+ points +170 (FD)
Dame’s point prop is set to 33.5 and the over is juiced.
Jokic’s point prop is set to 32.5 and the under I juiced.
Obviously, this is a few points over each players prop and I hate these combined wagers. You are better off, as usual, betting the overs and parlaying them as it is likely they both need to get there. Pass for me.


Dame to score 10+ in the 4^th Quarter +450 (DK)
I am out on timed boosts like this. What if Dame drops 40 in the first three quarters and the Blazers are up 25? There are tons of things that can happen to prevent the fourth quarter from mattering. Pass for me.

LeBron to score over 35.5 points and the Lakers to win +450 (DK)
LeBron’s points prop is set to 29.5 and the over is juiced. This parlay should play +338. This is a very solid boost, except I have my doubts about the LeBron portion. For the Lakers to win AD must play. If he plays then LeBron does not need to score 36+ points. What I am trying to say is, this is a boost I would pass on. LeBron may get there, but for the Lakers to win AD will play and he will have a larger role in the offense. Pass.

Dame and Jokic to score 30+ points each +200 (Fox)
Dame’s point prop is set to 33.5 and the over is juiced.
Jokic’s point prop is set to 32.5 and the under I juiced.
This should pay -106. This is an easy wager. Both players are expected to go over in this competitive game. In addition, I hope your max bet is more than mine is. I am in.

Portland and Phoenix to both win +250 (Fox)
This parlay should pay +224. I have my doubts about the Suns tonight, but I have more doubts about the Blazers. I am passing here.

Dame to score 40+ and Portland to win +375 (Barstool)
Dame’s point prop is set to 33.5 and the over is juiced.
Dame is +280 to score 40+ points.
This parlay should pay +340. I mean, it is a small boost and you can play it, but I am passing. I have missed on three games in this series, but I like Denver and the points tonight. I am passing here.

MLB Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
CWS/Cubs to both win +245 (DK)
This should pay +213. They always try to sneak a dog into these parlays and they did it again here with the Cubs. I believe that people must not even look at these boosts and blindly bet them. Pass for me.

PIT/LAA/SDP to all win +450 (Fox)
This should pay +395. This features two favorites and my Pittsburgh Pirates. Imagine wagering any money on the Pirates, ever. This is an easy pass because of the Pirates being included. Pass.

NBA
Denver +5

MLB
Nothing at this time.

Let’s Get Weird
Nothing at this time.

Basketball
2020-2021 Season Record
NBA Record 71-60 53.43%
NBA Playoff Record 9-5 64.28%
Hoops Parlay Record 45-37 +604
Hoops Odds Boosts 61-109 +2150
Hoops Player Props 4-4 +330
NBA Model Playoff Record 25-16 60.97%
NBA Model Highest Rated 71-64 52.59%
NBA Model 500-475 51.28%

Baseball
2020-2021 Season Record
Baseball Overall Record 21-39 -360
Baseball Games 7-10 -551
Baseball Parlay Record 5-9 +161
Baseball Odds boosts Record 9-21 +030

Last night was nice, 1-0 on odds boost and 2-0 on NBA plays. The NBA having four games tonight is fantastic and I wish every night was like this.

Tonight I think the Sixers win a very tight game to give Joel Embiid some rest. The Hawks close out the Knicks as New York does not have enough offense. Utah ends their series as well and the Grizzlies are a team everyone likes as a sleeper next year. I want to believe that Dallas plays well and stays with the Clippers. I hope that Luka is not that injured. I am willing to take the value on Dallas and find out.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

NBA Model Plays
WAS +6
ATL +1
UTA -9.5
DAL +7.5

NBA Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
JA to lead the game in scoring +275 (FD)
Now, I understand he could easily do this, but I do not ever want to back someone on the team that is expected to lose. Moreover, Mitchell’s point prop is two-points higher. Fade this one.


Luka -1.5 Pts+Assists+Rebounds vs Kawhi +110 (FD)
There is a chance Luka is hurt and if that is the case, I want no parts of this again. Pass for me.  Luka’s combo is set to 45.5. Kawhi’s is set to 44.5, so this really close. I will not back the guy who is hurt, against the player that has been crushing this entire series.

Knicks to win the first quarter and game +230 (FD)
The Hawks are just better and I am so far off the Knicks now.

Rose and Randle to score 50+ Combined +250 (DK)
Randle’s point prop is set to 23.5.
Rose’e point prop is set to 19.5.
I cannot in any way invest in the Knicks at this time. Besides the fact, they are expected to score several points under what is needed here. Pass for me.


PG under 25.5 points and Mavs to win +640 (DK)
I do not like rooting for both sides of a wager like this.
This should pay +583, but I am passing. AS I said, I do not want to root for both sides here and wagers like this.

Luka and Kawhi to score 25+ +100 (Fox)
Luka and Kawhi to score 30+ +280 (Barstool)
Luka’s point prop is set to 28.5 and the over is slightly juiced.
Kawhi’s point prop is set to 30.5 and the under is ever so slightly juiced.
The Fox boost is an easy one to get behind as that parlay should pay -155. I am in.
The Barstool boost is a little trickier. It should pay +237, but if Luka is hurt, both guys may not see the entire game. I realize that 25 and 30 are both large numbers, but if we have learned from the Nets, 25 is much more achievable in a game that may get out of hand. In addition, I hope your max bet is larger than mine. I do think in this case that it is worth the risk on the Barstool boost. I hope Luka is heathy and Dallas stays in the game. Since his prop is so close, I am willing to take the risk here. I am in on both.

NYK/UTA/LAC to all win +240 (Fox)
I will not put the Knicks into anything at this point. This should pas +191 though. Pass for me.

Trae and Mitchell to score 30+ each +650 (Fox)
Mitchell’s points prop is set to 27.5.
Trae’s points prop is set to 25.5.
This combo parlayed together should pay +638. This is barely a boost and asking both guys to go over by several points. This is a pass for me.

MLB Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
Everything is related to the early games that I saw.

NBA
DAL +7.5
An injured Luka? Well, here we go. I have Dallas to win the series and the Mavs in 6, so might as well add a little more on them tonight.

MLB
Nothing at this time.

Let’s Get Weird
Nothing at this time.

Basketball
2020-2021 Season Record
NBA Record 70-60 53.84%
NBA Playoff Record 8-5 61.53%
Hoops Parlay Record 45-37 +604
Hoops Odds Boosts 61-107 +2350
Hoops Player Props 4-4 +330
NBA Model Playoff Record 22-15 59.45%
NBA Model Highest Rated 71-64 52.59%
NBA Model 497-474 51.18%

Baseball
2020-2021 Season Record
Baseball Overall Record 21-39 -360
Baseball Games 7-10 -551
Baseball Parlay Record 5-9 +161
Baseball Odds boosts Record 9-21 +030

Built into the computer model is a metric we can adjust based upon injury, or schedule information. Normally this adjustment it pretty simple and helps avoid a situation where the computer loved a team, but a player was recently injured or unexpectedly out. In this case, tonight, the Celtics fall into that category. Despite adjustments, there is always a number or spread out there that the computer will feel is just slightly too large. For the Celtics and Nets it appears that Boston on the road getting 12.5 points is just too many points. If it were 11.5, the model would like the Nets, but barely. In this particular game at 12.5, it likes the Celtics, again barely. The point I am making is that betting numbers and shopping around is always vital. When we run the model if the number has been 11.5, it would have computed a different result. Shopping for numbers and situations is easier in football as there is simply more time from line opening to the start of the game.

Something else worth mentioning is bet percentages. The old school adage is if everyone is one a team, it is a horrible sign. Of course, this is not always true, but if 90% of bets and 80% of money are on one side, I want to be on the other. We are not dealing in absolutes though and football can be different from basketball. Yet, always look for signs that sharper money starts to pour in on one side of a game. This has happened a few times in the playoffs already, where we have noticed reverse line movement. (When everyone is betting a side, but the line is moving in the other direction, for example if the world appears to be on Golden State, but the line drops from -5.5 to -4.5.) Larger bets but people respected in the industry can have that affect.

Lastly, I wanted to mention the Fan Duel boost situation. Fan Duel initially had a boost saying two players to score 30+ points. In reality, they mean to add the word “each.” This massive word is missing and changes the entire situation. Two star players, barring injury, will of course combine for that many points. Fan Duel should have voided all the wagers, or pulled the boost and took their lumps. Instead, they changed the wording on bets that they already took! How can that be allowed? This is a case of operator error. They should have voided all the bets before the contest started, then reposted the wager with the correct wording. Had I bet this I would be blowing up their customer service. (I had family in from out of town and just made spread wagers this weekend.) Think about the precedent it sets that they can change the wording of bets after you make a wager. Since Fan Duel and every other company is now having sponsored wagers and boosts, this type of thing may happen more often. If someone out there has the screen shots for the bet they made, with their wager in their active wagers, then the grading of a loss, I would like to see it. Please reach out and DM me this information.

For tonight, I would be shocked if Brooklyn did not end it. The Denver series is the most perplexing to me. I think I have missed on three out of four games. Denver back home feels like a good spot to jump back on the Nuggets. If Davis does not play tonight, feels like the Lakers may be in serious trouble. While LeBron is capable of doing everything, the Suns as you know are very good. I think betting Phoenix makes sense tonight, but it feels so strange going against LeBron in a big game.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

NBA Model Plays
BOS +12.5 (I would never take Boston here.)
DEN -2
PHO -5 (Assuming AD sits.)

NBA Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
3×2 For the Nets game. UGH.


Harden to score 25+ and Nets to win +200 (FD)
Harden’s point prop is set to 25.5 and the under is juiced.
Harden to score 25+ points and the Nets to win should pay -104. This is a massive boost. While I am worried this is a blowout and the Nets win easily, I cannot ignore this large of a boost in a spot where the Nets are going to win. This feels like betting Harden to score 25+ at +200. I am in.

Jokic and LeBron to score 30+ Each +300 (Fox)
LeBron’s point prop is set to 27.5 and the over is juiced.
LeBron is +124 to score 30+.
Jokic’s point prop was set to 31.5.
This parlay should pay +258. If LeBron is going to compete, he will need to score a ton, but I am leery the Lakers score well over 100+ points. I am passing here. I do like Jokic tonight, but it feels weird to not assume LeBron is amazing tonight.


BRK/DEN/LAL to all win +500 (Fox)
This should pay +412. The Lakers are five-point dogs in this spot and it is assuming Anthony Davis is not going to play. I am not going to back the Lakers without AD, no matter the spot. I am out.

LeBron to record a triple-double +500 (DK)
LeBron is +450 to record a triple-double on other sites. This is a tiny boost. I am passing. Look, LeBron could get there and he needs to a do a ton in order to beat the Suns. I think it is also likely the Lakers lose here in a low scoring game.

KD/Kyrie/Harden to score a combined 90+ Points +170 (Barstool)
Harden’s point prop is set to 25.5 and the under is juiced.
KD’s point prop is set to 30.5.
Kyrie’s point prop is set to 25.5
This combo is slated to score around 81.5 points. This is asking them to go over that by a pretty large number. Of course, this is combined and they crushed this number in game four. I believe a blowout is in order and since this is asking a ton, I am passing.

MLB Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
MIN/TOR/WAS to all win +500 (Fox)
This should pay +484, so this is  very small boost. The Nationals are also dogs in this spot. This is an easy pass for me.

Bieber and Glasnow to record over 18.5 K’s +160 (DK)
Bieber’s K prop is set to 8.5 and the over is heavily juiced.
Glasnow’s K prop is set to 8.5 and the under is heavily juiced.
While this is combined, the combo is expected to fall two strikeouts short. You can parlay them to both go over their prop and it pays +264. This is an easy pass for me. I hate when they combine the props. Pass.

NBA
Denver -2
I might as well get another game wrong in this series.

PHO -5
This feels like an old school 107-90 type game.

MLB
Nothing at this time.

Let’s Get Weird
Nothing at this time.

Basketball
2020-2021 Season Record
NBA Record 68-60 53.12%
NBA Playoff Record 6-5 54.54%
Hoops Parlay Record 45-37 +604
Hoops Odds Boosts 60-107 +2150
Hoops Player Props 4-4 +330
NBA Model Playoff Record 20-14 58.82%
NBA Model Highest Rated 71-64 52.59%
NBA Model 495-473 51.13%

Baseball
2020-2021 Season Record
Baseball Overall Record 21-39 -360
Baseball Games 7-10 -551
Baseball Parlay Record 5-9 +161
Baseball Odds boosts Record 9-21 +030

Draft Kings also has a bet get bonus. Every day you bet $25+ on NBA you get a $5 free bet. I know for me, I love getting these tiny free bets and throwing them on something that is high variance like golf.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

NBA Model Plays
NYK +4.5 (Highest Rated in Model)
BRK -8
DAL +3

NBA Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
ATL/BRK/LAC to all win +270 (DK)
This parlay should pay +233, so it is a boost. This is a tough one for me as I am afraid to go against the Knicks or the Mavs at this point. You would have to think the Clippers show up right? Right? Pass for me.

Trae and Randle to score 15+ each in first half +550 (DK)
Never bet timed boosts like this, or at least I do not. There is no urgency for either player to get to this point in the first half. Pass.

KD to score 22+ points and Nets to win +100 (Fox)
KD’s point prop is set to 27.5 and the over is juiced. This parlay should pay around -130, so this is a solid boost. I am in.
I hope your max bet is higher than mine.

Kyrie to score 25+ and the Nets to win +150 (Barstool)
Kyrie’s point prop is set to 24.5.
This parlay should pay +128. This is an interesting spot as it is right near his prop number. This is also a “homecoming” for Kyrie if you will. Kyrie has score 15 and 29 points in the first two games of the series. I think the Nets come out and really crush the Celtics here and go up 3-0. I bet Kyrie plays very well as Narrative Street is real when it comes to the NBA. I am in here. I think both get there and the Nets win.


Kawhi/Trae/Luka to all score 25+ points +200 (Fox)
Luka’s point prop is set to 29.5 and the over is juiced.
Trae’s point prop is set to 26.5 and the under is slightly juiced.
Kawhi’s point prop is set to 30.5.
This parlay should pay +135. This is a great spot. All three players are expected to score above this number or be very close. Each player can miss their number and still reach this boost number. This is also a boost as it pays more than it should. I am in.

KD/Luka to score 30+ points +350 (Fox)
KD’s point prop is set to 27.5 and the over is juiced.
Luka’s point prop is set to 29.5 and the over is juiced.
This parlay should pay +311. While this is a small boost, I like the Nets players to get to the 25ish range and asking 30 is a lot since the blowout risk is ever present. Pass for me.

NYK/BRK/LAC to all win +550 (Fox)
This parlay should pay +454 and is a pretty strong boost. If you like, this combo you can fire away. I am passing, as I do not trust the Clippers at all.

MLB Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
NYY and LAD to both win +150 (FD)
Both teams are sizable favorites and are throwing the best pitcher by far in the game. This should pay +108. I am in here.

TOR/MIA/STL to all win +875 (DK)
Did they randomly select a few teams again for this theme boost? This features two dogs, easy pass for me. This should pay +741 though, but I am out.

WAS/BOS/ATL to all win +400 (Fox)
This features three favorites and I was hopeful it would be a large boost. Unfortunately, this should pay +375, which is not enough of a boost for me to fire on this combo. I am out.

NBA
NYK +4.5

MLB
Nothing at this time.

Let’s Get Weird
BRK/LAD/NYY ML Parlay +157

Basketball
2020-2021 Season Record
NBA Record 68-59 53.54%
NBA Playoff Record 6-4 60%
Hoops Parlay Record 45-37 +604
Hoops Odds Boosts 60-104 +2450
Hoops Player Props 4-4 +330
NBA Model Playoff Record 16-9 64%
NBA Model Highest Rated 71-62 53.38%
NBA Model 490-465 51.30%

Baseball
2020-2021 Season Record
Baseball Overall Record 21-38 -260
Baseball Games 7-10 -551
Baseball Parlay Record 5-8 +261
Baseball Odds boosts Record 9-21 +030

Our NBA model is 6-0 the last two days and 14-8 overall in the playoffs. Tonight is a little trickier to me. The Bucks look fantastic and will the Heat show up, or roll over. I could not back the Heat tonight at all; it feels like they are not the same team as last year and could be in for a short series.

I believe the Suns play well tonight and keep it very close with the Lakers. Phoenix is capable of winning as well, so to me and our computer model there is a lot of value on the Suns and the points tonight.

In the last game, I have no idea. It feels like the Blazers will play well at home and should control Denver, yet Jokic has been unreal. If the Denver backcourt cannot be completely terrible, they can stay in the game. I am a big believer of backing the Blazers at home, and Denver is primed to lose this series with all of their injuries.

Draft Kings also has a bet get bonus. Every day you bet $25+ on NBA you get a $5 free bet. I know for me, I love getting these tiny free bets and throwing them on something that is high variance like golf.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

NBA Model Plays
MIL -1.5
PHO +7 (Highest Rated in Model)
DEN +3.5

NBA Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
3×2 NOPE Fan Duel.

Booker and Ayton to outscore LeBron and AD +290 (DK)
Booker’s point prop is set to 28.5.
Ayton’s point prop is set to 14.5.
Lebron’s point prop is set to 24.5.
AD’s point prop is set to 25.5.
I do not even know where to begin. How can you take the Suns side here? Booker would have to go insane, considering Ayton is inconsistent. This is an easy pass for me.


Giannis and Jokic 30+ points each +300 (Fox)
Jokic’s point prop is set to 32.5 and the under is slightly juiced.
Giannis’s point prop is set to 28.5 and the under is slightly juiced.
Will the Heat be competitive tonight? If she Giannis may be able to get there. I expect Jokic to have a huge game because he has to. This parlay should pay +222. This is very tempting honestly. I am just worried the Heat are cooked and the Bucks roll. I am out on this.

MIA/LAL/POR to all win +375 (Fox)
Imagine backing the Heat at all. This parlay should pay +348, but I cannot back the Heat at all. Yes, they could win tonight, but I do not feel like attacking that spot.

Booker and AD to each score 25+ +160 (Barstool)
Booker’s point prop is set to 28.5.
AD’s point prop is set to 25.5.
This parlay should pay +132. This is a smaller boost, but the one I am interested in playing. AD needs to play well for the Lakers to win. Booker has to score as well for the Suns to have any chance. I think both guys get going early and get there tonight. I am in.

MLB Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
LAA to win and 8+ runs to be scored +350 (FD)
The LAA are a dog tonight against Oakland. The total in this game is set to 7.5 runs. This parlay should pay +309. I am a little surprised to see Ohtani as a dog, but liking a pitcher and the over does not exactly overlap very well. Pass for me.

STL/BAL to both win +535 (DK)
This features a tiny favorite and a sizable dog. This should pay +452. This is an easy pass with the large dog involved.

CWS/ARZ/OAK to all win +425 (Fox)
All three are favored, but Arizona is such a tiny favorite. The other two are larger favorites and this should pay +356. This is one you can fire on, but only if you like the Diamondbacks. I do not and am going to pass.

NBA
Suns +7
How healthy is Chris Paul? I am not sure, but this feels like a good spot to be on the Suns. I think the Lakers win, but this will be a very close game.

MLB
Nothing at this time.

Let’s Get Weird
Nothing at this time.

Basketball
2020-2021 Season Record
NBA Record 68-57 53.6%
NBA Playoff Record 6-2 75%
Hoops Parlay Record 45-37 +604
Hoops Odds Boosts 60-103 +2550
Hoops Player Props 4-4 +330
NBA Model Playoff Record 14-8 63.63%
NBA Model Highest Rated 71-61 53.78%
NBA Model 488-464 51.26%

Baseball
2020-2021 Season Record
Baseball Overall Record 21-38 -260
Baseball Games 7-10 -551
Baseball Parlay Record 5-8 +261
Baseball Odds boosts Record 9-21 +030

I will say it is weird having the Mavs +320 and Mavs in six at +900. I find myself now rooting for the Clippers to go 1-1 in games 3-4 and then win game five so the Mavs can close it out in six games. Is that being too greedy? Maybe. I could just hope the Mavs finish it and collect my +220 after losing the correct games wager. Yet, when it is out there and can happen, I want it.

Tonight the Sixers should win. Utah, should win. The Knicks, well I believe they will win. It is possible the Knicks have already achieved what they will this season and just making the playoffs was a huge step forward. I do believe Randle will play better tonight and Thibs will adjust the Knicks defense to drag the game even more into the mud.

Draft Kings also has a bet get bonus. Every day you bet $25+ on NBA you get a $5 free bet. I know for me, I love getting these tiny free bets and throwing them on something that is high variance like golf.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

NBA Model Plays
PHI -8
NYK -2
UTA -9

NBA Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
Trae +0.5 Pts/Reb/Ast Vs. Randle +150 (FD)
Randle’s prop is set to 41.5.
Trae Young’s prop is set to 40.5 and the over is juiced.
These two are almost even, but you do get the added boost of having Trae at +150.
Trae had 49 in game one and Randle had 37. There is no way Randle shoots as poorly as he did in game one where he was six out of 23. While you can fire and this makes sense here to do so, I am skeptical. This is a must win game for the Knicks. Randle will play better and the Knicks defensive approach on Trae will be different in game two. I have to believe the Knicks win and it will be because Randle outplays Trae tonight. I am passing, but you can fire.


NYK to win the first quarter and game +230 (FD)
This makes sense if you want to bet it. The Knicks are -120 to win the first quarter and -130 to win the game. My concern with these bets are always that the team is not urgently trying to win the first quarter. Pass for me.


Randle and Trae to score 25+ points each +240 (DK)
Trae’s point prop is set to 26.5 and the under is juiced.
Randle’s point prop is set to 25.5 and the over is juiced.
This parlay should pay +166. Like I said above, both guys will shoot more than enough to have a chance to score. I think both guys can get there despite the low total of 213 points. Randle is going to play well and even in a loss, or bad shooting game Trae can get 25 points. I am in here.

Sixers/Knicks/Jazz to all win +225 (Fox)
This should pay +173. I think the Sixers win. I think the Jazz get back on track. I think the Knicks get it done. Certainly, I would rarely advocate for the Knicks in such a tight spread, but this is a game they absolutely have to have. I fully realize this is taking a small two-point dog in a parlay, but I like the other two to win. I am in.


Embiid to score 25+ and Sixers to win +100 (Fox)
Embiid’s point prop is set to 32.5. The Sixers are large favorites and should handle their business tonight. I mean, this is so far below his prop and the Sixers should win, I am in. As per usual, I hope your max bet is larger than mine is on this one.

MLB Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
ATL/NYM/LAD +650 (Fox)
This should pay +587. However, the Braves are dogs in Boston and both of the other two are tiny favorites. Pass for me. Every day they add a dog in this parlay odds boosts trying to lure people in.

NBA
UTA -9
Mitchell is back and they will bounce back at home.

NYK -2
Oh, you know they will have some adjustments and fix their issues. If I bet that parlay boost, I have to take them alone right?

MLB
Nothing at this time.

Let’s Get Weird
Nothing at this time.

Basketball
2020-2021 Season Record
NBA Record 66-57 53.65%
NBA Playoff Record 4-2 66.66%
Hoops Parlay Record 44-37 +379
Hoops Odds Boosts 60-101 +2750
Hoops Player Props 4-4 +330
NBA Model Highest Rated 71-61 53.78%
NBA Model 485-464 51.10%

Baseball
2020-2021 Season Record
Baseball Overall Record 21-38 -260
Baseball Games 7-10 -551
Baseball Parlay Record 5-8 +261
Baseball Odds boosts Record 9-21 +030

We get the Lakers and Clippers in almost must-win games. We have three NBA boosts and two MLB boosts we are recommending. This is a fantastic time of the year to be a sports bettor!

Draft Kings also has a bet get bonus. Every day you bet $25+ on NBA you get a $5 free bet. I know for me, I love getting these tiny free bets and throwing them on something that is high variance like golf.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

NBA Model Plays
BRK -9.5
LAL -2
DAL +6.5 (Highest Rated in Model)

NBA Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
KD to score 30+ and Nets to win +240 (FD)
KD’s point prop is set to 28.5.
KD to score 30+ is +112.
This combo should pay +141. KD scored 32 in game one. Frankly, I think this is a four game series and the Celtics are going to be run. While this is a boost and you can certainly fire on it, I am afraid if a blowout or one of the other Nets scoring as well. Pass for me.


Suns to win game 2 +175 (FD)
This should pay +114. I am on the Lakers here. No way are they losing game two. I believe they adjust and win tonight. Pass here.

BRK/LAL/LAC to all win +250 (DK)
This combo should pay +181. In theory, this all makes sense. The Nets should win easily. The Lakers need to bounce back. The Clippers are not going to be swept, yet I am scared of it. I am not into backing the Clippers and Playoff P at all. This Clippers team has been all over the place this year and Dallas has turned it on. If you saw on Twitter, I gave out Mavs to win the series +320 and Mavs in 6 at +900. I am staying away from this and the Clippers.


BRK/PHO/LAC to all win +270 (Fox)
LOL, imagine being on the Suns tonight. This should pay +245. I am out.

Harden and LeBron to core 25+ each +375 (Fox)
Harden’s point prop is set to 22.5.
Harden is +142 to score 25+ points.
LeBron’s point prop is set to 24.5 and the under is juiced.
If you parlay them to score 25+ is should pay +366. So much for this being a boost. Easy pass here.Harden to get to 20 and I am in, more than that and well, he has become more of a facilitator when all three of their studs have played. Pass.


Luka and Kawhi to score 25+ points each +135 (DK)
Luka’s point prop is set to 28.5 and the under is juiced.
Kawhi’s point prop is set to 28.5 and the under is also juiced.
Both guys are expected to score over 25+ points. This should pay -107. Overall, this is a very solid boost. Both guys need to score for their teams. Both players were over 25 points in game one as well. I am in.

KD/Harden/Kyrie to each score 20+ points +200 (Fox)
KD/Harden/Kyrie to each score 20+ points +155 (Barstool)
Shopping for the best prices is very important when betting games with multiple sportsbooks as options.
KD’s point prop is set to 28.5.
Harden’s point prop is set to 22.5.
Kyrie’s point prop is set to 24.5 and the over is juiced.
This parlay should pay +115. Both of these are solid boosts. In game one, they all finished with 20+ points. My worried about a blowout matter when needing to score 30+, but less so to get to 20+. I am in on the Fox boost, but my max bet is a weak $20. In terms of the Barstool boost, it is still good, but obviously pays out less. I do like both though. I am in on both! If you have to choose, you should of course pick the Fox one.

MLB Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
NYY to win series +100 (FD)
The NYY are pitching Kluber, German, and Montgomery in this three game series. Those names do not exactly make me feel as enthusiastic as say Cole would. Yet, there is a reason to believe the NYY should be favored in potentially all three games. The NYY are -190 tonight and a win tonight would be a great start. I am in.

NYM to win and 7+ Runs scored +215 (FD)
This should pay +154. DeGrom is pitching for the Mets which means runs will be tough for the Rockies. That also means runs will be tough for the Mets, as for whatever reason they never seem to give deGrom any run support. I am passing here as this might be asking the Mets to score all the runs by themselves. Pass for me.

Kershaw and Greinke to record 5+ K’s each +235 (DK)
This game has a total of 8.5 runs.
Kershaw’s K prop is set to 5.5 and the under is juiced.
Greinke’s K prop is set to 4.5 and the under is juiced.
This is a tough one. This is about what it should pay, so it is not much of a boost. Both pitchers have surpassed this number more than they have not, but the game total gives me pause. If both pitchers were expected to pitch well and go deeper into the game, the total should be a little lower. I am passing here.

TB to win -159 (DK)
TB is -215 to win tonight, so this is a solid boost. The Rays are on fire and that trend can easily continue tonight. I am in.


Philly to win +125 (DK)
Philly to win +128 (Barstool)
This is why it is important to always shop around.
Philly is +112 in most places, so this is a boost. If you liked the Phillies before you saw this, of course go ahead. Pass for me.

TOR/WAS/ATL to all win +700 (Fox)
This should pay +638. They always sneak a dog in here and today it is the Blue Jays. This is a pass for me. Parlays are hard enough without a dog involved.


NYY and STL to both win +270 (Barstool)
This should pay +245, but the Cardinals are dogs here. I have said this before and I will mention again, I am not putting a dog in a parlay like this. Pass for me.

NBA
LAL -2
You know how Denver was not going to go down 2-0, well neither are the Lakers.

MLB
Nothing at this time.

Let’s Get Weird
Nothing at this time.

Basketball
2020-2021 Season Record
NBA Record 65-57 53.27%
NBA Playoff Record 3-2 60%
Hoops Parlay Record 44-37 +379
Hoops Odds Boosts 59-100 +2715
Hoops Player Props 4-4 +330
NBA Model Highest Rated 70-61 53.43%
NBA Model 482-464 50.95%

Baseball
2020-2021 Season Record
Baseball Overall Record 21-37 -101
Baseball Games 7-9 -392
Baseball Parlay Record 5-8 +261
Baseball Odds boosts Record 9-21 +030

Draft Kings also has a bet get bonus. Every day you bet $25+ on NBA you get a $5 free bet. I know for me, I love getting these tiny free bets and throwing them on something that is high variance like golf.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

NBA Model Plays
MIA +4.5
DEN -1.5

NBA Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
3×2 Boost on FD, but you know I am passing.

Nuggets and Blazers to combine for 33+ total Made 3’s +415 (DK)
The two teams combined for 30 made 3’s in game one and 232 points were scored in that game. Game two’s total sits at 226.5. Portland shot almost 50% from three in game one and that will not continue. This number is a little high, but the payout means it could be worth it. I think Denver gets back on track tonight and believe a fade is in order. Pass for me.


Giannis to score 30+ and record 15+ rebounds +460 (DK)
Giannis’s point prop is set to 28.5 and the over is slightly juiced.
Giannis’s rebound prop is set to 12.5 and the over is juiced.
This parlay should pay around +425 or so. Miami plays a little slower and more deliberate. Giannis went for 26 and 18 in game one. I realize her could get there and is capable, but I think a fade is in order. Lower total games, when you are asking overs like this to hit are a little tougher. Of course, it can come in, but I would rather the total be in the high 230’s. Pass for me.



Giannis/Jokic/Dame to all score 25+ Points +200 (Fox)
Giannis’s point prop is set to 28.5 and the over is slightly juiced.
Dame’s point prop is set to 29.5
Jokic’s point prop is set to 30.5 and the over is juiced.
This parlay should pay around +100. This is a fantastic boost. Everyone is supposed to go over should get there and it pays more than it should. I hope your max bet is larger than mine is though. I am in.

Jokic and Dame to score 30+ points +240 (Barstool)
Jokic’s point prop is set to 30.5 and the over is juiced.
Dame’s point prop is set to 29.5
This parlay should pay +208. I was hopeful this was a larger boost. Yet, this is pretty good. Both players are expected to be very close to this number. Jokic and the Nuggets will be desperate and there is no one to guard Dame. I am in.

Heat and Nuggets to both win +400 (Fox)
This should pay +381. I think the Bucks and Nuggets win tonight. I am happy to pass here. The Bucks did not play well and still won game one. Pass for me.

Giannis and Butler each to record 40+ points/rebounds/assists +180 (Barstool)
Butler’s combo is set to 39.5 and the under is juiced.
Gianni’s combo is set to 47.5 and the over is juiced.
Butler had 35 in game one.
Giannis had 56 in game one.
Butler was 4-22 from the floor in game one and he will shoot better tonight. Since Giannis is all but a lock to get here, this is betting the over on Butler at +180. I like that. I am in here. If Butler makes a few more shots and he gets there in game one. I realize the first game went to OT. I am in.

Bucks and Blazers to both win +230 (Barstool)
This should pay around +209. If you have a combo you like, these boosts may be the way to go. I am passing on this. I think the Bucks and Nuggets win. Pass for me.

MLB Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
Lance Lynn to record 10+ K’s +570 (DK)
Lynn’s K prop is set to 7.5 and the under is heavily juiced. Lynn has flashed this upside before, but not for several starts. This is a fair price considering the prop and what is being asked. Yet, this feels like a little too much. Lynn would need to pitch deeper into the game than he has at times. I am passing on this.

CLE/NYM/MIL to all win +600 (Fox)
This parlay should pay +546 and it features one dog in Cleveland. This is a pass for me. As always, I am not putting a dog in a parlay like this. Pass.


NBA
Denver -2
Losing here and it is over.

MLB
Nothing at this time.

Let’s Get Weird
Nothing at this time.

Basketball
2020-2021 Season Record
NBA Record 64-57 52.89%
NBA Playoff Record 2-2 50%
Hoops Parlay Record 44-37 +379
Hoops Odds Boosts 57-99 +2375
Hoops Player Props 4-4 +330
NBA Model Highest Rated 70-61 53.43%
NBA Model 481-463 50.95%

Baseball
2020-2021 Season Record
Baseball Overall Record 21-37 -101
Baseball Games 7-9 -392
Baseball Parlay Record 5-8 +261
Baseball Odds boosts Record 9-21 +030