I had been posting on Thursday, but it appears most of the major sites will not have their odds boosts ready until Friday. I want to be a place where you can find odds boosts that are actually advantageous, and then you can sift through the options of what is worth your time and money. A reminder, not all the odds boosts offered are good. I will now be posting every Friday to make hopefully mention boosts that I like. As a result, I will tweet out the Thursday night computer model plays every week.

Week 4 Odds Boost You Should Consider
Draft Kings

20% odds boost on any one single game. This seems like the standard option every week. You must take advantage of this weekly.

Fan Duel

I love the Ravens this week. I made a few larger wagers on them at -12.5 and then the line jumped to -14. Now, I get to throw $50 more down on a good line getting odds. I max bet this odds boost.

Fox Bet

The CEH bet is pretty interesting, especially if you think he will get the carries and I believe he will. Small interest in it. In three games he has 130, 70, 138 total yards.

I mean you can play this two ways. Bet the Niners money line, win a little, and get a refund if the Eagles lose too. Basically, it will help take the SF money line down some. Conversely, if you bet the Eagles money line for $50 and it wins you will get a nice payout. If it loses you get your money back in free bets. This feels like a great spot to bet the Eagles money line for the max $50.

Plays I Will Be On
Baltimore -14
This is such an obvious blowout spot. I said it above, but I bet the Ravens early in the week at -12.5.

Miami +6.5
Oh, yes this is a fantastic situation for the Dolphins to hang around. I look forward to Redzone cutting to Miami multiple times saying, “And look at this…Fitzpatrick, Touchdown!”

Computer Model
Platinum Plays
NE +7

Premium Plays
NO -4
LAC +7
Buff -3

Regular Plays
Bal -13
Jax +3
Min +3.5
Sea -6.5
NYG +12.5
SF -7
Arz -3.5
Atl +7
Indy -2.5
Den +1
Dal -4.5
Ten +2

2020 Season Record
Overall 25-22 53.19%
Platinum 1-3 25%
Premium 9-2 81.82%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 10-5 66.66%

Last week was all about the favorites. The public, which generally bets favorites, had a fantastic week. Conversely, when that happens, I normally have a down week. I bet for value and situations that are advantageous. The more valuable situations have a tendency to be teams that are getting more points than they should be. I personally, had a horrible week picking games against the spread. The model however, was just fine and almost had an amazing weekend.

Platinum plays went 0-2 with Minnesota and New England losing. The Vikings, I believe, may be a hole in my model and a blind spot for me. Clearly, after two weeks the Vikings are overvalued compared to how they are currently constructed. In terms of the Patriots, well, if Cam gets one more yard that game comes in. After two weeks, our recommended plays (Platinum and Premium) are 7-2 overall. Premium plays did go 3-0 last week and moved to 6-0 on the season.

This is a week I would be careful as a sports bettor. What you think you have watched may not be completely correct. Always remember that football and the NFL are small sample size games. Fluke plays and strange situations can come up at any time and alter everything.

One thing I want to point out is that now we are into week three and it seems the major sports books have slowly stopped easily winnable odds boosts. Just because a site is sending you an alert and mentioning an odds boost does not mean you have to bet it. Frankly, some of them are awful. Last week the sites started to unveil their boosts late on Friday heading into the weekend. I am not sure why they are delayed. Maybe injury information or Covid concerns. After all, they could hang an odds boost, have someone ruled out and make a boost a sure thing without the intention to do so.

Games I Will Bet
Pats -6.5
I Mentioned this on the podcast with Jeff Collins this week. Raiders played late game Monday and now travel cross-country to play a 1 PM Eastern start against the best coach of all time. The Raiders still cannot really stop anyone either.

Denver +6
I will happily take the home dog here. The model feels this is too many points and I agree. Is Tampa actually any good? I know Denver will struggle to score, but Brady has been average at best.

Week 3 Odds Boost You Should Consider
Draft Kings
20% odds boost on any one single game. Just like last week, pick your favorite game and boost the odds. If you like a dog, I would boost up their money line odds for a larger payout.

Fan Duel
Nothing yet. The sites have been slower and slower to release these boosts. I wonder why.

Fox Bet
Ben Roethlisberger 2 or more passing TD’s +200. Ben has two or more TD’s in both of the first two games. Max bet is $25.

Week 3 Plays
Platinum
Dallas +5

Premium
NE -6
SF -4
CHI +4
NYJ +10.5
DEN +6

Regular Plays
Mia +3
LAR +2.5
HOU +4
MIN +2.5
WAS +7
PHI -6
CAR +6.5
DET +5.5
GB +3
BAL-3.5

2020 Season Record
Overall 16-16 50%
Platinum 1-2 33.33%
Premium 6-0 100%

Week 2, there is always an overreaction. The teams that looked awful are not as bad as they seem, and some teams that played exceptionally will probably come back down to Earth.  It is always good to be careful and not over-weigh just one game. Football is such a small sample size game and one play, penalty, or drop can really change the perception of a team. Just ask any Lions, Cowboys, or Bengals fans about that.

Conversely, there are always teams that I will cause me to have a blind spot. I talked about this on the weekly NumberBall/NumberBet podcast with Jeff Collins. I am afraid that the Vikings may be my team this year. I leaned Minnesota last week, but like them this week. Of course, I and by proxy our model may be way off on them for the second straight week.

The one game I vehemently disagree with my model about is the Pittsburgh/Denver game. There is no way I am siding with the Broncos. Denver struggled to move the ball last week and now is facing an even better defense on the road. No thank you. I will be on the Steelers. Speaking of the Steelers, I was able to take part in the early testing for the new Barstool Sportsbook app. The app is fine, but it was not until I saw their odds boosts that made me feel like I had to deposit.

I am already on the Steelers at 25/1 to win the title and they are already down to around 22/1. I can add a little more at 55/1! Sign me up for the new Barstool Sportsbook account and this odds boost.

Week 2 Odds Boost To consider
Draft Kings
25% Profit Boost on any one single week two game. You have to opt in and then select the game you want. If you like a dog, maybe oh I do not know the Vikings, you can take their money line from +148 to +185. Of course, you can also just play them at +3 and get +121. Whatever game is your best play should be in consideration here.

Fan Duel
Nothing. They have nothing listed for Sunday.

Fox Bet
Baker Mayfield or Joe Burrow to throw at least one interception. This has been boosted from -650 (LOL) to +100. The down side is the max bet is $10. It seems that Fox Bet is going to be offering this auto bet odds boosts, that all have a $10 max bet. I guess we just all take the free $10.

Lamar Jackson 70+ rushing yards and Ravens Win +200. If this game is competitive, Lamar will have the chance to get here. He ran for 79 in the blowout win over the Texans last year.

Week 2 Plays
Platinum
Minn +3
NE +4

Premium
Denver +7.5
SF -7
Bal -7

Regular Plays
Cin +6
PHI -1
Car +9
Dal -4.5
BUF -5.5
Det +6
NYG +5.5
JAX +8.5
WAS +6.5
LAC +8.5
NO -5.5

2020 Season Record
Overall 9-7 56.25%
Platinum 1-0 100%
Premium 3-0 100%

We are back!

Where have we been? Well, it is a long story, but I can give you the short version. Last year in the middle of the NFL season, we began contributing to Numberbet.com. All of our data and model outputs were published on their site. While we are still contributing to Number Bet this year, our football data and NFL plays will be posted in this space. Make sure you listen to the brand new Number Bet podcast with Jeff Collins and myself that will be coming out every week! On this site, I will also mention any and all odds boost you should be taking advantage of for the upcoming week of football and of course maybe some NBA stuff too. Make sure you are following me on twitter as well.

Why does our computer model matter? Well, beating the NFL is difficult and our model has been successful at being profitable. Getting over 53% is the line to beat the house juice (The -10 in the -110 on most lines) and make anyone a profitable bettor.  Our computer model has never finished under 50% picking almost every game in the entire NFL season against the spread. We label everything in categories. Platinum is the highest level the model will recommend to place a wager. Premium is just below platinum, then everything else is a just a regular play. The beauty of sports betting though is that this is all your choice and decision. Our model will tell you whom it likes, but the bankroll management and actually placing bets is on you. I can tell you what my thought process is, and what I am doing, whether it is on here, on Twitter, or on Numberbet.com.

Odds Boost You should Consider
KC Chiefs +101 Points (DK Sportsbook)
This is a max bet of $50 and is free money.

Any Team 55/1 to win the Super Bowl (DK Sportsbook)
This is a max bet of $1, but it is a fantastic boost.

Any team to win the Super Bowl (FD Sportsbook)
Get $5 for every win your team has during the season.
Minimum bet of $50.
For example if you bet $50 on the Steelers at 25/1 and they go 10-6, you get your $50 back in site credit.

Same Game Parlay (FD Sportsbook)
They offer these all the time and you get a refund if you lose. This week they have if you bet a $20 same game parlay, you get $10 in site credit back.

Bet $10 on the Chiefs/Texans game and get $10 for every Mahomes TD, no matter how it is scored. (Fox Bet)
This is a max bet of $10, but go do it and collect your free money.

Mahomes and Watson to Each throw 2 or more TD’s. (Fox Bet)
This pays +300 and has a max bet of $25. Both QB’s are expected to throw two touchdowns, so this is an advantageous odds boost.

Computer Model

2015-2019
Overall 650-561 53.67%
Premium 154-131 54.04%
Platinum 29-25 53.70%

Overall
2015 132-132 50%
2016 127-94 57.47%
2017 108-99 52.17%
2018 141-118 54.44%
2019 142-118 54.62%

Premium
2015 43-37 53.75%
2016 30-24 55.56%
2017 18-21 46.15%
2018 32-21 60.38%
2019 31-28 52.54%

Platinum
2015 2-1 66.67%
2016 4-4 50%
2017 6-4 60%
2018 6-11 35.29%
2019 11-5 68.75%

Week 1 Plays

Platinum
NE -6.5

Premium Plays
Bal -8
Chi +3
Jax+7.5

Regular Plays
Hou +9
NYJ +6.5
Car +3
Sea -2
Phi -6
Min -2.5
LAC -3
SF -7
NO -3.5
DAL -3
PIT -6
TEN +1

The public against the professionals. This is the story many weeks when it comes to betting on the NFL. There are so many times where the public sees a situation that seems too obvious. We have one of those tonight. Kansas City opened as a 4.5-point favorite at Denver. The line is now down to just KC -3.

This game features reverse line movement. A reverse line move occurs when a larger percent of the betting tickets are on a team, but the line moves the opposite direction. Despite around 80% of wagers being on the Chiefs, the line has dropped. Situations like this occur when professionals are pouring large amounts of wager on a team, but the public is betting small amounts at a higher clip. The result, the line has come down.

From the public’s perspective, this seems like an easy game to wager on. The Chiefs are a high-powered offense that scores at will. Denver was 0-4 two weeks ago. People who spend little time analyzing a game, but like making wagers, usually think like this.

We have aimed to make our computer model sharper and to align with professionals as much is it can. Tonight at least, it has. The computer likes the Broncos as a regular play at +3. I personally am staying away from this game completely. It is too easy and obvious to take the Chiefs, but their defense is terrible. Denver should be able to run the ball at will and control the clock. If you are betting the Chiefs tonight, tread lightly.

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For College football this week, we like four games. One of which is a Friday night affair!

Pitt -3.5
The Pitt defense is very good and Syracuse has had problems scoring against above average teams. It is almost comical to stay, but Pitt could go 10-2 and win their half of the ACC. They need this game to do so.

Wyoming -19.5
I said it a few weeks ago and I will say it again, Wyoming is very good at home. Wyoming’s two losses are at Tulsa and at San Diego State, they are 3-0 at home and get to play an awful New Mexico Team. New Mexico is 4-17-1 against the spread in their last 22 games.

Appalachian State -15
App State is 5-0 and has 34+ points in every game but one. UL Monroe has given up 45, 72, and 52 when they have played good teams. (If you consider Florida State good is another argument, but they are a power five school)

Texas -21
Texas is coming off a loss and has a great bounce back spot against Kansas. Kansas has improved, but the last three weeks regressed to old Kansas.

4 Team 7 point Teaser +200
Pitt +3.5
Wyoming -12.5
App St -8
Texas -14

We will be back with more tomorrow! Good luck everyone!

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Platinum 9-5 (64.28%)
Premium 13-11 (54.16%)
Overall 54-35-2 (60.67%)

College Teasers and Parlays 4-4 (50%) +40
College Picks 16-14-1 (53.33%)
NFL Teasers and Parlays 4-4 (50%) +280
NFL Picks 15-7 (68.18%)
Overall Teasers and Parlays 8-8 (50%) +320
Overall Picks 31-21-1 (59.61%)

Baseball Record 93-61 +2586
Baseball Parlays 28-74 -995

Normally, when someone tells you a gambling story, it has an awful ending. This is not one of those stories. I wanted to take advantage of the Fan Duel Sports Books parlay insurance. If you make a parlay bet that includes five teams and go 4-1, they will refund your bet up to $25. I normally shy away from parlays, as they are more for fun than likely to make a profit. The odds are obviously skewed and it is hard enough to win one bet, let alone several.

I approach parlays the same way I do future bets, I want to have a chance to hedge or break even if the opportunity presents itself. I will talk about this concept in terms of future bets next week before the NBA season starts. In order to maximize hedging opportunities, the last game of the parlay needs to be much later than the other games. (This does not mean pick a side you do not like just because it is later in the slate.) I really loved the Steelers this week and thought they would be the ideal team to finish my parlay. As the week progressed, I realized I really liked the Lions as well. As an added bonus, Fan Duel Sports Book had the best line on the Lions at +4.5. If you read this blog last week, you knew I had some college teams I liked as well. (Part of the trick with the parlay insurance is it must contain at least two different sports. You cannot bet 5 NFL games and be eligible.)

I decided to play Duke -17 and Central Michigan -10 on Saturday. Then I added Minnesota -3, the Steelers +7 and the Lions +4.5 to finish the parlay. I ended up having a nice Saturday and both Duke and Central Michigan came in. I really only needed to hit two of the three remaining games to break even and not lose my original bet. I think it is important to try to take advantage of the odds boosts and promotions that these new sports books are running, like the parlay insurance.

On Sunday morning, I bet the Vikings separately and again Fan Duel had the best line of -3, while other shops had moved the line to -3.5. The Vikings got off to a blazing start and held on to easily win and cover. At this point, I started to feel very confident that the parlay had a chance. I loved the Steelers. They were my favorite bet of the week. I loaded up on them at +7, +6.5 and the money line. I also want to thank the Sugar House Sports Book for the Steelers money line odds boost to +500. (Most places were +230 or so) The Steeler game was almost never in doubt. That left me with a fun decision to make.

I wanted to make sure I locked in a profit and the only way to do so was to hedge against the Lions. The first thing I wanted to consider was that I knew from the parlay insurance I was getting my original wager back no matter what already. Taking that out of the equation, I began to explore my hedging options. The Lions were down to +3.5 in most books and while that gave me a chance to hedge it did not leave me a chance to middle the game. I hoped all day long the Packers would fall to just -3, but it never materialized. If I was going to give up some of the equity I had built into the parlay winning, I wanted to give myself a chance at a bigger win. After discussing with some friends, we rationalized the optimal play was the Packers money line. I price shopped and found -186 was the best value, again on the Fan Duel Sports Book. I crunched some numbers and decided to give up about 25% of my parlay profits in my Green Bay money line wager.

The Green Bay money line wager gave me the following possible results:
Green Bay wins by 5 or more = Win 20% of parlay profit.
Green Bay Loses = win 80% of parlay profit.
Green Bay wins by 1-4 = win 120% of parlay profit.

This seemed optimal to secure a win and build my bankroll, and then Detroit got up 13-0. I checked the live betting and Green Bay was +4.5 for the game. This felt like a great spot to make my middle window even larger. As long as Detroit did not blow out Green bay, I could get some of my hedge wager back. I locked in Green Bay +4.5. Immediately, Green Bay came down and scored. I felt good. By half time, I thought I had a chance at this. I thought I must have adrenaline pumping through my veins. I fell asleep before the third quarter started. Being a working parent with two young kids is hard.

My daughter woke up to go to the bathroom and asked me to come and get her back to bed. I was startled and slightly confused what time it was since I was asleep on the couch. I checked my phone, Detroit 22 Green Bay 20. Ohhhhhh, this could happen.

I laid down in bed next to my daughter and tucked her in. I wanted to make sure she went back to sleep. I streamed the game on my phone on the ESPN app. Green Bay was moving the ball. By this point, the Packers had three people from the crowd playing wide receiver. Then it happened. After the questionable penalty call against the Lions, Green Bay called timeout. I thought, is Matt Patricia smart enough to realize he needs to let the Packers score here to have a chance? He was. Fortunately, Jamaal Williams was just as sharp.

How many times have we seen a running back purposely fall down to secure a win or to waste time? This has happened what five time in the history of the NFL. On the same play, both the Lions defense and Williams made the optimal play. This feels like a rare occurrence. The Lions wanted to let him score. Williams wanted to waste time to set up an easy field goal for the win. Williams sat down on the two-yard line with an open end zone in front of him. I wanted to scream out a loud “Ohhhhhhhhhhhh Yeahhhhhhh,” like the Kool-Aid Man crashing through a wall. I could not. I was lying in bed next to a sleeping toddler. I watched as Mason Crosby casually hit the easy field goal for the win. Packers 23 Lions 22.

I swept everything. I hit my parlay. I hit my hedge on the Packers money line. I hit my in game wager on Packers +4.5. For once, this gambling story had a happy conclusion. I middled the game perfectly. I am taking the time to realize this does not happen often, but when it does, we must rejoice.

 

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The computer had another solid week going 9-5 overall. In terms of picking every game against the spread being over 60% in insanely good. Platinum plays went 1-1 and premium plays went 1-2. Collectively after six weeks of the NFL season, the computer model is doing very well as you can see below. We will be back later in the week. Until then, good luck everyone.

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Platinum 9-5 (64.28%)
Premium 13-11 (54.16%)
Overall 54-35-2 (60.67%)

College Teasers and Parlays 4-4 (50%) +40
College Picks 16-14-1 (53.33%)
NFL Teasers and Parlays 4-4 (50%) +280
NFL Picks 15-7 (68.18%)
Overall Teasers and Parlays 8-8 (50%) +320
Overall Picks 31-21-1 (59.61%)

Baseball Record 93-61 +2586
Baseball Parlays 28-74 -995

*I was almost finished with this write up, and then Todd Gurley was labeled doubtful. Now, this is Malcolm Brown week. It is going to be impossible to avoid the running back getting a majority of the work, even in a tough matchup at $4300. The game total is still at 50 and Brown is going to be very highly owned.

Last week in DFS did not go well for me. I had all the correct plays, but just not together. I did not have enough Will Fuller. I collected my “bonus” from Draft Kings for playing the highest scoring stack, but that was not even my highest scoring lineup. I had a Watson/Fuller stack with CMC that did not cash in GPP’s. If you can even believe that. What a crazy high scoring week. My highest scoring lineup ended up being a Dak/Cooper/Gallup stack that I wish I had run back with Free Aaron Jones. I am playing to win GPP’s so I realize that at times my style is going to be volatile. However, it does not make losing weeks any easier. The best part about DFS though, is we can take in the information we learned and prepare for the next week.

This week provides us with some very strange and real opportunities to put into play what we have learned after five weeks of the NFL season. Obviously, everyone is going to play people from the KC/Houston game. This is a fantastic game environment, has a massive total, and should lend itself to fantasy production all around. Despite all that, I am very interested in a few other games too. The set up for the Rams this week could not be better. The Rams have ten days rest and get to play the Niners off of a short week having played on Monday Night Football. If Todd Gurley were the old Todd Gurley, I would be plugging him into every lineup. As we know that is not the case. Instead, I am focused on the Rams passing game. I realize all the advanced data says that San Fran is tough on quarterbacks, but they have not faced anyone or any offense as solid as the Rams.

The Falcons continue to score and get to play the fast Arizona Cardinals this week. Matt Ryan is very consistent and feels like a safe play this week. I am zoned in on Chase Edmonds if David Johnson were to sit and Kyler Murray, now that he started to run more consistently. I am very curious to see how ownership plays out with a massive amount of it focused on that Chefs/Texans game.

One game that will end up being the key to the weekend might be Miami and Washington. There is going to be so much value available from this game and whoever nails it will do very well this weekend. I cannot believe I am considering multiple plays from this game, but here we are.

Without further ado, our DFS Player Pool.

Quarterback
Watson – Obvious.
Mahomes – More obvious.
Jimmy G – Umm everyone is throwing on the Rams.
Goff – I know it looks bad, but massive total.
Matt Ryan – Super safe play.
Dak – Fade Zeke!
Kyler Murray – Even the Titans threw on Atlanta.
Rosen – he is $4500.

 

Running Backs
Nick Chubb – Sharps betting Cleveland.
Cook – Volume, Volume, Volume.
Lenny – Volume, Volume, Volume.
Kamara – Has to have a ceiling game soon.
Ingram – This feels like a 100 yard and 2 TD spot for him.
Chase/DJ – I want a cheap Chase against Atlanta.
Drake – Not going to make a Drake joke.
Carson – Touches are solid.
AD – I am not playing him.
Bell – This game may be competitive.

Wide Receiver
Nuk – It’s coming.
Fuller – Everyone is in play!
Pringle – Only if Watkins and Hill sit.
Theilen – Price is too low.
Kupp – I want to lock him in.
Julio – I want to fade.
Larry – Everyone throws on the Falcons.
Cooper/Gallup – I remain high on the Dallas passing game.
Crowder – Darnold is back, fantastic play on PPR sites.
Preston Williams – Another Dolphin, lol.
Tyler Boyd – Volume.
F1 – Some Redskins players will do something.

Tight End
Kittle – Goff/Kupp/Kittle stack incoming!
Everett – Admiral Akbar play of the week.
Hooper – Al Smizzle TE flow chart spot.
Dissly – Targets are secure.

 

Defense
Jets – Cheap!
Vikings – Tough at home and kind of cheap!
Others – This is always the last thing.

Like most weeks, we hope to be on some of the sharper plays. In the gambling world, you are either a sharp or a square. In other terms, you are a wise guy or a public bettor. The goal for every gambler is to make their way from square to sharp in hopes of turning a profit when betting sports. One of the easiest ways to make money-betting sports is to always fade the public. The public is dumb. The public only recalls what happened most recently and tends to make mistakes often. Yet, the public can be correct at times too. Over time, you want to be against the public, as casinos exist for a reason. This week there are two teams the public seems to be all over and the professional handicappers are on the other side. The public loves New Orleans coming off three straight wins, playing the Jaguars. The public always really likes the Eagles getting points against the Vikings. In both spots, the professionals are on the other side. In the case of the Saints, backing the Jags makes sense. Teddy Bridgewater will be out doors on the road against an above average defense. The public just sees a red-hot Saints team that they feel is better than the Jags and should be favored. Despite 74% of the tickets on the Saints, the line has moved in favor of the Jags. The same case can be made for the Vikings and Eagles. More tickets are on the Eagles at a 2-1 rate, but the line has not moved. If anything, it appears headed toward Vikings -3.5. These are both instances we should be aware of when making wagers and to tread carefully. After all, if a bet looks too good to be true, it probably is.

We knew it was coming. The computer only knows data and does not understand how bad and injured the Giants are. We have a metric to adjust for these situations, but despite that adjustment, the computer loves the New York Giants tonight. I suppose the teams that New England has beaten really plays into the computer results as well. It is somewhat surprising that the computer does not like Cincinnati more than it does. I would have thought getting double-digits, the computer would have the Bengals in the premium or higher category, but by the slimmest of margins, it just missed the cut.

Last week did not go well for the computer as it continues to love large dogs, especially when they are double digits. It worked well for the Colts, but not as well for those teams that are tanking for Tua. This week appears to be more of the same.

Platinum Plays
NYG +17
NO +1.5

Premium Plays
LAR -3
ATL -2.5
NYJ +7

Regular Plays
Car -2.5
Sea -1
KC -4.5
Mia +3.5
Minn -3
CIN +11
Ten +2
Pitt +6.5
DET +4

College Wagers
Georgia -24
They win every game by more than ten points and get to plat a South Carolina team that has trouble scoring. If you have been reading every week you know I like to attack teams that cannot score.

Texas +10.5
This game always plays close and I will take the points here.

Duke -17.5
Georgia Tech is terrible and you guessed it, struggle to score. Duke has put up points on everyone and after having some problems with a good Pitt defense, gets the best possible matchup in the conference.

Central Michigan -10
New Mexico State scored 52 points in one game, and then has scored 17 or less in every other game. I am ready to back the MAC team here for an easy win. This line should be closer to 21.

My NFL Wagers
Pittsburgh +7
I was very happy to see this at +7. I believe the Steelers defense is elite and will make things difficult with the Chargers offensive line issues. The Steelers can win the game, but they will keep it close no matter what.

 

Platinum 8-4 (66.66%)
Premium 12-9 (57.14%)
Overall 45-30-2 (60%)

College Teasers and Parlays 4-4 (50%) +40
College Picks 13-13-1 (50%)
NFL Teasers and Parlays 4-4 (50%) +280
NFL Picks 12-7 (63.15%)
Overall Teasers and Parlays 8-8 (50%) +320
Overall Picks 25-20-1 (55.55%)

Baseball Record 93-61 +2586
Baseball Parlays 28-74 -995

In the NFL every week, there are injuries and as a result, there is value to be had when playing DFS. This seems like a rare week that is almost devoid of value. Looking at Draft Kings pricing and there is one person under $4k that we know for sure will be seeing a ton of snaps in Auden Tate. Tate should be the highest owned player on Draft Kings especially in cash games. Unless some unexpected injuries news pops up, this will be the tightest priced week on Draft Kings in recent memory.

We are officially in “jam in the stud running backs and figure out the rest territory,” as we were a few years ago in cash. At a point two years ago, all you had to do was play David Johnson, Todd Gurley and Lev Bell along with some cheap value wide receivers. Add in a cheaper quarterback and you had a massive floor of almost 90 points every week. In cash games, this was extremely valuable. Last year, this was not as simple. There were no clear-cut running backs who you knew would play a high snap percentage and was a lock for touches every week. Fast forward to this year and we are back to having some secure plays. I feel very confident that Dalvin Cook, CMC and David Johnson have an insanely high floor. Between targets and rushes, all three will have a chance to touch the ball 25 or more times. All three are also in fantastic spots this week. Yes, I am calling Jacksonville a great spot. I will be jamming all three in cash games this week and looking for value in other areas.

As for the rest of the DFS player pool.

Quarterbacks
Watson – I am going back to the well after he crushed me last week. Best spot of the week. Hope the price keeps ownership down.
Matt Ryan – This game will go over.
Kyler Murray – Short week for the Bengals and they are awful.
Dak – They started feeding Zeke and the offense looked worse. Gallup back.
Mason Rudolph – The Ravens defense has quietly been bad. Steelers did just enough on Monday. Feels like it could be the Rudolph bust out spot. No one will play him, with reason.

Running Backs
Cook – Cash game staple.
CMC – Just playing him every week until he is 9.5K.
DJ – Fantastic spot against the Bengals.
Zeke – Green Bay has not been able to stop the run.
Conner – Oh the price is low and a Steelers onslaught is very interesting.
Samuels – If Conner is actually hurt and sits, lock city.

Wide Receivers
Tate – Cash Game lock.
Hopkins – I am going to ride this train off the cliff.
Theilen – I am playing Cook instead.
Julio – God this game feels like a shootout.
Fuller – Oh, I cannot wait to watch him not do anything again.
Tyler Boyd – Everyone looks good against the Cards.
Amari CSURAM88 Cooper – Everyone wants to play Zeke and I want to stack up Dak and Cooper.
Larry – Cardinals onslaught anyone?
MVS/Allison – I hope Adams sits so I can play one of these cheap guys and watch them go 4-55.
Emmanuel Mrs. Jennings Sanders – Sutton will get shadowed in the slot so.
Golden Tate – Really, like the price on Fan Duel.
Baby Chark – Guy keeps producing.
Diontae Johnson – Is the clear No.2 WR in Pittsburgh now. Is constantly open. Ravens secondary has been bad. This is a GPP winning guy.

Tight End
Nick Vannett – There is very little value but need Vanimal to sit here.
Austin Hooper – If you want a piece of this game, but cannot get up to Julio.
Tyler Eifert – I mean someone has to catch the ball. Will he lay enough snaps?
Knox – He is cheap. That is all I got.
Waller the Baller – Plays every snap and gets insane volume.
Mark Andrews – Is he going to be questionable every game?

Defense
New England – if you can get up to them do it.
Philly – No Darnold again.
Chicago – Mack revenge game.
New Orleans – Jameis INT regression incoming.
Buffalo – Get great pressure and the Titans have to turn it over eventually.
Tennessee – If there is no Josh Allen.
Pittsburgh – This is the GPP play. They force turnovers and get to face a team that is fumbling often.

 

This is my current plan! Good luck everyone!

Platinum 7-2 (77.77%)
Premium 11-8 (57.89%)
Overall 41-22-1 (65.07%)

College Teasers and Parlays 4-4 (50%) +40
College Picks 11-12 (47.82%)
NFL Teasers and Parlays 4-4 (50%) +280
NFL Picks 10-6 (62.5%)
Overall Teasers and Parlays 8-8 (50%) +320
Overall Picks 21-18 (53.84%)

Baseball Record 92-60 +2584
Baseball Parlays 28-74 -995

Week five is here and the AFC remains the strangest looking conference after four weeks in recent memory. Only three teams have a winning record. THREE. I am sure you are well aware of two of them, New England and Kansas City. Buffalo being 3-1 feels strange, but that schedule is soft. That is the list. I am sure we could make something of the fact that there are some abysmal teams that might be or should consider tanking. Even with these terrible teams near the bottom of the standings there seems to be a cannibalization happening in the rest of the league. No one else is standing out, because no one else is that much better or consistent than anyone else.  How can we use this to our advantage as sports bettors? Going into last week teams giving a touchdown or more had not lost a game all season. Than week four happened and several of them not only did not cover, they lost outright. The data at this point would also suggest home field means nothing. Of course, the underdogs covering and road teams winning means that regression will occur in that area as well.

Most people when they bet games only look at the prior week, or at least the recall the most recent event that occurred. Take for example the Cleveland Browns. Browns had too much hype to start the year, disappointed then seemingly out of nowhere ran through the Ravens last Sunday. The general public consensus was that Baltimore was a significantly better football team than the Browns. In reality, both teams have flaws and are inconsistent. Without consistency, a wider range of outcomes is always in play. Our computer model aims to narrow down those outcomes and ignore recency bias. The computer does not know the Browns were hyped up as Super Bowl contenders. All the computer cares about is what each team’s data says. Having said that, you will notice the trend that the computer always likes getting larger point quantities. That trend will continue this week as well, but thankfully, Miami is not on the slate.

Platinum Plays
NO -3.5
NYJ +13.5
Wash +15.5

Premium Plays
Indy +11
Clev +3.5

Regular Plays
LAR +1
CIN -3
Ten -3
Chi -5.5
NYG +5.5
Pit +3
Jax +3.5
ATL +5
Den +6.5
GB +6.5

 

I hope that you continue to follow us on Twitter as we post other wagers throughout the week. We were very fortunate to start the MLB playoffs off with a 2-0 start and will look to continue that today by suggesting the OVER 9.5 in the Atlanta/STL game at +102.

For college football, we have a few wagers for the weekend. This weekend sees many ranked teams laying big points before playing a pivotal conference match up the following week. In these situations, it is always better to tread lightly and be aware of what is on the horizon.

Tulsa +13
SMU just was ranked for the first time since getting the death penalty before some of you reading this were even born. Tulsa is a good team that has been competitive in all four of their games. The 2-2 record is slightly deceiving since their two losses are to Oklahoma State and Michigan State. Tulsa also beat a good Wyoming team two weeks ago.

Purdue +28
I know the Pitt graduate and fan is betting against Penn State, but hear me out. Purdue can score dropping 31,13,42,31 in the first four weeks of the year. PSU has scored in bunches as well, but have a massive road game at Iowa next week. With hopes of making a run at the CFB playoffs, PSU may be looking ahead and struggle to cover in this one. I also noticed the line here in Pennsylvania is 28, but 27.5 in other places. Looks like PA bettors have to pay a home team tax to take PSU.

Air Force -3.5
Air Force has been a sharp bettors darling early in the season and get a chance to continue against one of their service academy rivals on the road. Air Force has scored 30+ in every game except their close loss at Boise State. Navy does not have enough offense to keep up in this one.

Georgia -24.5
I can recall when Georgia and Tennessee was a big game, but the Volunteers are terrible now. Georgia has had two weeks to prepare following their win over Notre Dame. I like betting against teams that cannot score and Tennessee fits the bill perfectly. Georgia will grind down Tennessee and win easily.

 

Platinum 7-2 (77.77%)
Premium 11-8 (57.89%)
Overall 41-22 (65.07%)

College Teasers and Parlays 4-4 (50%) +40
College Picks 11-12 (47.82%)
NFL Teasers and Parlays 4-4 (50%) +280
NFL Picks 10-6 (62.5%)
Overall Teasers and Parlays 8-8 (50%) +320
Overall Picks 21-18 (53.84%)

Baseball Record 91-60 +2484
Baseball Parlays 28-74 -995