Like most weeks, we hope to be on some of the sharper plays. In the gambling world, you are either a sharp or a square. In other terms, you are a wise guy or a public bettor. The goal for every gambler is to make their way from square to sharp in hopes of turning a profit when betting sports. One of the easiest ways to make money-betting sports is to always fade the public. The public is dumb. The public only recalls what happened most recently and tends to make mistakes often. Yet, the public can be correct at times too. Over time, you want to be against the public, as casinos exist for a reason. This week there are two teams the public seems to be all over and the professional handicappers are on the other side. The public loves New Orleans coming off three straight wins, playing the Jaguars. The public always really likes the Eagles getting points against the Vikings. In both spots, the professionals are on the other side. In the case of the Saints, backing the Jags makes sense. Teddy Bridgewater will be out doors on the road against an above average defense. The public just sees a red-hot Saints team that they feel is better than the Jags and should be favored. Despite 74% of the tickets on the Saints, the line has moved in favor of the Jags. The same case can be made for the Vikings and Eagles. More tickets are on the Eagles at a 2-1 rate, but the line has not moved. If anything, it appears headed toward Vikings -3.5. These are both instances we should be aware of when making wagers and to tread carefully. After all, if a bet looks too good to be true, it probably is.
We knew it was coming. The computer only knows data and does not understand how bad and injured the Giants are. We have a metric to adjust for these situations, but despite that adjustment, the computer loves the New York Giants tonight. I suppose the teams that New England has beaten really plays into the computer results as well. It is somewhat surprising that the computer does not like Cincinnati more than it does. I would have thought getting double-digits, the computer would have the Bengals in the premium or higher category, but by the slimmest of margins, it just missed the cut.
Last week did not go well for the computer as it continues to love large dogs, especially when they are double digits. It worked well for the Colts, but not as well for those teams that are tanking for Tua. This week appears to be more of the same.
Platinum Plays
NYG +17
NO +1.5
Premium Plays
LAR -3
ATL -2.5
NYJ +7
Regular Plays
Car -2.5
Sea -1
KC -4.5
Mia +3.5
Minn -3
CIN +11
Ten +2
Pitt +6.5
DET +4
College Wagers
Georgia -24
They win every game by more than ten points and get to plat a South Carolina team that has trouble scoring. If you have been reading every week you know I like to attack teams that cannot score.
Texas +10.5
This game always plays close and I will take the points here.
Duke -17.5
Georgia Tech is terrible and you guessed it, struggle to score. Duke has put up points on everyone and after having some problems with a good Pitt defense, gets the best possible matchup in the conference.
Central Michigan -10
New Mexico State scored 52 points in one game, and then has scored 17 or less in every other game. I am ready to back the MAC team here for an easy win. This line should be closer to 21.
My NFL Wagers
Pittsburgh +7
I was very happy to see this at +7. I believe the Steelers defense is elite and will make things difficult with the Chargers offensive line issues. The Steelers can win the game, but they will keep it close no matter what.
Platinum 8-4 (66.66%)
Premium 12-9 (57.14%)
Overall 45-30-2 (60%)
College Teasers and Parlays 4-4 (50%) +40
College Picks 13-13-1 (50%)
NFL Teasers and Parlays 4-4 (50%) +280
NFL Picks 12-7 (63.15%)
Overall Teasers and Parlays 8-8 (50%) +320
Overall Picks 25-20-1 (55.55%)
Baseball Record 93-61 +2586
Baseball Parlays 28-74 -995
Win The Weekends 