When these sportsbooks have odds boosts promotions, they started exceptionally. Slowly, they have become weird and awful. (The final score to be odd or even comes to mind) I understand they do not have to offer these promotions, but if they were not making money on driving action, they would not do it. On Thursday, Rivers and Sugar House had the Eagles at +10 listed at +100. This is the best promotion in a while for any of the sites. Tonight, I actually bet one on Fan Duel.

JuJu to have 100+ Yards and Steelers to win +250 (Max Bet $25)

I took advantage of another promotion too. If you bet, a money line in week four and the team loses by six or less you get a refund up to $50.

Steelers -177

Obviously, I am assuming the Steelers win tonight. I bet the Max on the Juju prop and I bet the Steelers money line. I believe the Steelers win tonight. In fact…

Pitt -3.5

The Steelers crush at home on Monday Night Football. The numbers are insane. I realize Ben is not there, but they will not lose this game at home when they can save their season. A Steeler win puts them one game back in the division after starting 0-3.

 

I know the betting public got crushed yesterday, but guess who did not, our computer model. The computer model was fantastic yesterday going 1-0 in platinum, 2-2 in premium and 9-5 overall with the Steelers tonight. Below we have our season long percentages and they are astounding. At almost a fourth of the way into the NFL season, it would be silly to not expect some regression, but for right now, we should continue riding the wave. Good luck everyone!

 

Platinum 7-2 (77.77%)
Premium 11-8 (57.89%)
Overall 40-22 (64.51%)

College Teasers and Parlays 4-4 (50%) +40
College Picks 11-12 (47.82%)
NFL Teasers and Parlays 4-3 (57.14%) +380
NFL Picks 8-6 (57.14%)
Overall Teasers and Parlays 8-7 (53.33%) +420
Overall Picks 19-18 (51.35%)

Baseball Record 89-60 +2259
Baseball Parlays 28-74 -995

I know I keep saying that each week is strange. However, in a small sample size game that will happen. This week’s main slate feels smaller than usual. I think it is because some games you can just cross off and avoid completely. Normally, we have a 12 game main slate to work with. Nevertheless, this week we have two games (Jax/Den and Chi/Min) that have such a lowly expected fantasy output that you could essentially cross them off as well. A few other teams are facing elite defenses and have not proven they are worth of consideration in Cleveland, Miami, Buffalo, Tennessee, and maybe New England. All the sudden this full slate looks pretty small. Factor in a few injuries and my normally large player pool feels tiny compared to other weeks. At the time of this writing there are only three stacks I really like. Normally, I am heading into the weekend looking to cut down on options, this week I am looking to add them. On to the week four player pool!

Quarterback
Danny Dime – Everyone say the Bears throw the ball on the deadskins.
Watson – My favorite play and stack of the week.
Mahomes – You have to make a Mahomes stack every week. It is the law.
Wilson – Stack against Arizona is the other new DFS rule.
Case – If you want to stack this game.

Running Back
Wayne Gallman – I am kidding, I am not playing him. He is the Admiral Akbar play of the week.
Ekeler – I assume he is still starting and getting most of the work against Miami.
Marlon Mack – Large home favorite and missing their best WR.
CMC – Remember when we used to jam in those running backs with high usage every week and figure out the rest later. DO IT WITH CMC EVERY WEEK.
Kerryon – Too cheap for a game against the Coors Field of the NFL, the Chiefs.
James White – Soooo, if Edelman sits, I really like James White.
CC the Fumble Machine – Anyone against Arizona is in play.

Wide Receiver
Julio – In play every week.
F1 – It appears he is hurt now so.
Paul Richardson – Welcome to Paul Richardson Chalk week. What could possibly go wrong?
Sterling – Danny Dimes makes everyone in play now.
Keenan Allen – In play every week.
Cain – Not the Robocop 2 Villain. If TY is out, someone has to catch passes.
Hopkins – My favorite stack of the week.
Will Fuller – Oh, I am playing lots of him this week.
Hardman – Chiefs WR are always in play.
Watkins – ALL of THEM.
DJ Moore – Carolina is much better with a healthy QB.
Kirk – PPR sites are great for Cards.
Larry – See Kirk.
Lockett – Arizona is bad.

Tight Ends
Engram – Danny Dimes!
Waller – Plays all the snaps and gets tons of targets.
Dissly – Too cheap and again Arizona.

Defenses
LAC – Miami.
Indy – The Raiders will turn it over.
Denver – This line smells, I like Denver.

 

I am sure I will change my mind several times over the next few days, but for now, I am planning to play this player pool. Good luck everyone!

I cannot believe we are already at week four! It feels like the season takes forever to start, but then it just goes so fast! This is the first year with legalized gambling in Pennsylvania at the start of the football season. I have mentioned some odds boosts that have been offered and there have been some great promotions too.

Of course, I entered the Pennsylvania Football picking championship hosted on Sugar House and Bet Rivers. I am very curious how this entire thing plays out. The leader after three weeks has 37 wins. I have 29 wins. I am eight games back after three weeks. The goal is to win the entire thing, but cashing would be interesting too. I currently sit in 1993^rd place. They are paying out the top 500 spots. If you are in a picks league how do you measure up. One thing to remember is that this contest excludes the Thursday night games every week. It is only Sunday and Monday games. Once you lock in your picks, you cannot make any changes. I will post periodically and update with how I am doing in this contest.

Before getting to our weekly computer picks, I have made two wagers myself.

Buffalo +7.5
This line has been hovering around 7 since it opened. When I saw, it hit 7.5 I had to jump on it. I think New England wins a close low scoring game. This is a fantastic set up for the Bills. The crowd will be insane, the Bills defense is fantastic, and Brady has not played well in Buffalo. I will happily take just over a touchdown.

Tampa Bay +10
Tampa Bay is two plays away from being 3-0. Are the Bucs good? No. This is a great spot though. The Rams played a road Sunday night game and now on a short week are expected to give double digits to a team that can score. The Rams offense has not been great at this point and their running game is spotty at best. The Rams win here, but this is too many points. When this line hit double-digits, I had no choice but to lock in the Bucs.

If you have been following along you already know one of the teams the computer really likes. This weeks computer selections are interesting.

Platinum
New Orleans +2.5

Premium
Seattle -5.5
Miami +15.5
Indy -6.5
Tennessee +4

Regular Selections
Philly +4
Buff +7
KC -6.5
Wash +3
Clev +6.5
Car +4.5
TB +9.5
Chi -1.5
Den -3
Pit -3.5

College Wagers
Wisconsin -24
Northwestern Can’t score at all and Wisconsin will run the ball down your throat the entire game. Just ask Michigan how that worked out. This game feels like 42-0. Wisconsin might just be very good, or Michigan really is that bad. I think the truth is a little of both, either way I am laying the points.

Temple -9
Temple upsets Maryland and then comes crashing back down to Earth against Buffalo. Georgia Tech is just awful though. This is a perfect spot for Temple to get better and beat up on a bad power five team

Wyoming -9.5
We are headed way west for our last college selection of the week. Wyoming upset Missouri to start the season and then lost a close game on the road last week. UNLV is just terrible and could easily be 0-3 right now. The lone UNLV win is over the football powerhouse that is Southern Utah. Wyoming is better at home and I am not afraid of the long illustrious history of Southern Utah Football.

Three Team 7 Point Teaser +140
Wisconsin -17
Temple -2
Wyoming -2.5

One last thing, I noticed that I forgot to count my live wager from Saturday in my record. I had UCF on the money line and UCF +4.5. I added the one win and one loss to make sure my record was accurate and correct.

Platinum 6-2 (75%)
Premium 9-6 (60%)
Overall 31-17 (64.58%)

College Teasers and Parlays 4-3 (57.14%) +140
College Picks 9-10 (47.36%)
NFL Teasers and Parlays 4-2 (66.66%) +480
NFL Picks 6-5 (54.54%)
Overall Teasers and Parlays 8-5 (61.53%) +620
Overall Picks 15-15 (50%)

Baseball Record 89-60 +2259
Baseball Parlays 28-74 -995

Football is a strange game. There are so few data points that we must do our best to predict what is most likely to happen with small sample sizes. We can project touches, game flow, or how we believe the game may unfold. All of that could mean nothing with a small news update. Last Sunday I was planning to play Shady McCoy, Keenan Allen and Mark Andrews in my main cash game lineup. I thought Shady was a little thin, but felt better than playing Frank Gore. Then the pre-game warmups started. Mark Andrews was reportedly barely running. Shady was running with the third team and looked like an emergency only type running back. After getting those two updates, I felt I had to pivot. I did not want to come off Allen, but I really liked my other pieces. I had locked Kyle Allen, CMC and Dalvin Cook in along with Larry Fitzgerald and the Pats defense. I never considered coming off the Pats defense in cash, but perhaps I should have.

Reluctantly, I went to John Brown, Vance Macdonald and Austin Ekeler. Vance was not my favorite, but I was just short of getting up to Evan Engram and his targets with Rudolph last week were encouraging. That 3v3 swap was horrid. My lineup still cashed in 60% of my cash games, but surely would have swept and won them all without the sweep.

Process over results.

I keep telling myself that my process was correct, despite the results being bad. Shady was hurt again and only played 24 snaps. He scored two touchdowns on those 24 snaps. Mark Andrews was a non-factor and looked hurt. Allen crushed. If I had just gone down to Gore and up to Engram, I crush. I dumped all my Andrews shares and ended up with some Engram, Kittle, Ertz and Vance.

My best GPP lineups on each site seemed to be going extremely well, and then Arizona stopped scoring. Everything was in place for a nice or pretty big score, but the shootout in Arizona never happened. The Panthers just blew out the Cardinals.

 

The process you should be trusting is our computer model. The computer is destroying against the spread hitting on all games at almost 65%! Platinum plays and premium plays are on fire too! We will be posting this plays every Thursday! Until then, good luck everyone!

 

Platinum 6-2 (75%)
Premium 9-6 (60%)
Overall 31-17 (64.58%)

College Teasers and Parlays 4-3 (57.14%) +140
College Picks 8-9 (47.05%)
NFL Teasers and Parlays 4-2 (66.66%) +480
NFL Picks 6-5 (54.54%)
Overall Teasers and Parlays 8-5 (61.53%) +620
Overall Picks 14-14 (50%)

Baseball Record 89-60 +2259
Baseball Parlays 28-74 -995

Injuries at the quarterback position have taken over as the dominant fantasy story line as we approach week three of the NFL season. I am not going to mention who is out. You should already know. Honestly, if you are reading this you should be well aware of the injuries. A few years ago finding out information or practice reports was very difficult. Now, I get that information sent to my phone with zero effort. In a game with incomplete information, knowledge is key. Unlike the NBA where timing can matter a great deal, here in the NFL we should know everything ahead of time. I mentioned in my post the other day what we know about the NFL after two weeks. How can we take advantage of what we know and use it to be profitable in DFS? That is the key.

My week three player pool.

Quarterback
Josh Allen – Everyone is carving up the Bengals and Allen is next on the list.
Kyle Allen – I do not know anything about him, but he is 4k on Draft Kings and everyone is scoring on the Cardinals.
Mahomes – Do I need to tell you to play him?
Lamar – This is the week I stack him and I do not see how he fails.
Mason – Ohhhh, sneaky play since the Steelers cannot run the ball.

Running Back
CMC – No Cam, lock for a ton of touches.
Dalvin Cook – Massive home favorite and should get 20+ carries in a great spot.
Marlon Mack – If healthy love him in this spot.
DJ – This game is sneaky and I like it.
Ekeler – Take away his fumble at the one and he smashes even more last week. Getting top end usage without the price.
Barkley – Offense can only get better.

Wide Receiver
Tyler Boyd – If you need to run back your Bills stack.
John Brown – Continues to exceed his price with Josh Allen.
AGO – The Eagles have almost no healthy WR. He is $3600 on Draft Kings.
Hollywood Brown – Think they throw against the Chiefs?
Sammy Watkins – After let down last week, the targets are still there.
DJ Moore – Targets are there every week.
Larry Fitz – I am starting to believe in this offense.
Kirk – GAME STACK IS IN PLAY.
Ty Hilton – At home against the Falcons secondary.
James Washington – They can’t play Donte Concrete again can they?
Keenan Allen – Target monster at home in a competitive game.

Tight End
Ertz – Eagles have no one to throw to.
Waller – Always in play.
Mark Andrews – If he is healthy I want him.
George Kittle – Steelers were crushed by the TE last week.

Defense
New England – They saved me last week.
Dallas – Paying up for defense feels so wrong.

I said it last week and will say it again; defense is so random that paying up for the position has been wrong. However, these are unusual situations. Favorites of this size are not normal. It is going to be chalky to pay up for defense this week, so maybe it makes sense to not do that. This is my plan as of right now! I am sure it will change as the weekend continues. When making stacks, remember that they should tell the game story you think will happen. Good luck everyone.

Week 3 is here and I have already made some wagers. We have our computer picks, we have some college picks and of course, there were some NFL lines I had to lock in early. The computer is off to a solid start, but it has some opinions with the big lines we have this week. I mentioned it before but the computer loves getting a large amount of points. History and data say that getting many points historically, has worked out for the dog. The Patriots had not covered as a two touchdown or larger favorite ever, until last week. Yet, here we are.

Platinum Plays
Pitt +6.5
Cincy +6
Mia +21.5
NYJ +22.5
Car +3
NYG +6.5

Premium Plays
LAR -3
INDY -1.5

Regular Plays
Ten -1.5
Den +7.5
Balt +6.5
Minn -8.5
Det +6
LAC -3
NO +4
LAR -3
CHI -4

NFL Wagers
I have locked in two bets already. I am worried the lines for both may head in the opposite direction.

NE -22
This line could easily go up higher and is around -22.5 or -23 in most spots. By Sunday, this will get t over -24. I just do not see how the Jets score. This feels like a 35-0 game.

Det +6.5
The Eagles played late Sunday night, have plenty of injuries, and had to make their Wednesday practice into a walk through. It is possible the Eagles will have three healthy WR Sunday. This game feels like it goes under and stays very close. The Lions will assist in that by their slow play. Oddly, the Lions could easily be 2-0 right now and get to play the banged up Eagles on a short week. I think the Eagles win a tight close game.

 

College Wagers
UCF -11
PITT CANNOT SCORE. THEY HAVE THREE POINTS IN THE SECOND HALF THIS YEAR. THREE. THAT IS ONE POINT A GAME IN THE SECOND HALF. THEY DO NOT HAVE A SECOND HALF TD IN THEIR LAST SIX GAMES. UCF is actually good and they can score.

Wisconsin -3.5
This line smells. Michigan has problems scoring at home against bad teams, now they are going to go on the road and score on a team that has given up zero points this year. Michigan will be exposed here.

Oregon -10.5
Stanford is in bad shape and like the other teams mentioned above cannot score at all. Oregon just needs to get to 28 points to cover the way this seems to be going. I like targeting bad teams that cannot score if you did not notice.

Washington State -18.5
UCLA is terrible and you guessed it, they cannot score.

ND +14.5
This is a strange spot. ND is perennially overrated and ends up losing anytime they play a real team. Georgia likes to run the ball and plays slower than most of the premiere teams. I think Georgia wins this game by a touchdown, and it will be close the entire time.

5 Team 7 Point Teaser +350
UCF -4
Wisconsin +3.5
Oregon -3.5
Wash ST -11.5
ND +21.5

We will be back tomorrow with our DFS player pool. Until then, good luck everyone!

 

Platinum 1-1 (50%)
Premium 7-6 (53.84%)
Overall 19-13 (59.37%)

College Teasers and Parlays 4-2 (66.66%) +240
College Picks 5-7 (41.66%)
NFL Teasers and Parlays 4-2 (66.66%) +480
NFL Picks 5-4 (55.55%)
Overall Teasers and Parlays 8-4 (66.66%) +720
Overall Picks 10-11 (47.61%)

Baseball Record 89-60 +2259
Baseball Parlays 28-74 -995

Week two in the NFL is always strange. Normally, there is an overreaction and lines are inflated. The lines were, but we have some historically bad teams and some injuries that have altered the league in many ways. This affected not only betting but fantasy as well. Most of the DFS professionals had bad weeks. You can check their twitter timeline and see how things went. My week was average. I broke even on Fan Duel and made money on Draft Kings. This was really only because I cashed in the Wild Cat.

Despite a large percent of my lineup busting or nor playing to expectation, I still got there. The decision to pay up and play the Patriots defense ended up being the difference. Cooper Kupp’s late touchdown being overturned also cost me some money, but no complaints here. Any week not losing is a good week. The most important thing though is what did we learn?

Things we learned after Two weeks
1. Baltimore will not hand off to Mark Ingram when they have a lead. They continued to run Lamar and their offense. Also, Hollywood is legit and so is his market share. If you don’t run a Lamar/Hollywood stack this week against Kansas City, you should not be playing DFS.

2. The Steeler’s offense will not suffer with out Ben. Mason Rudolph was fine in the second half. The interception was Donte Concrete’s fault. Pittsburgh is a seven point dog in San Francisco this week. That feels juicy to me. Try and trade for JuJu right now if you can for as cheap as possible in season long.

3. Home Field advantage means nothing. Seriously, playing at home has slowly meant less and less. Even Vegas has stopped making the home team and automatic three point favorite.

4. Get used to these massive spreads. Teams are tanking much sooner and realizing they can not compete at the highest level. Our computer model sees anything near 14 points and will always take them. Miami and the Jets are going to test this model going forward. Both teams are huge dogs this week, again.

5. If you believe in a team, bet them, but situations do matter. The Bears had ten days off and the Broncos lost a late road Monday Night Game after week one. In the past this was a schedule loss for the Broncos. Short rest, quick travel and injuries meant that teams could not compete at a high level. This happens every Thursday night, but that is an even playing field. There is no reason, other than talent, that the Bears should have not won easily. The other three teams that played on Monday night all lost and did not cover. (Houston, New Orleans, Oakland) The Jets have a short week and play at New England with a third string quarterback. 22 points won’t be enough.

6. Buffalo will make the playoffs and Josh Allen needs to be our cash game QB as long as he is cheap. LOOK AT THEIR SCHEDULE. They can get to nine wins.

7. Paying up at defense in DFS was not a winning strategy. There is a ton of variance at defense and defensive TD’s are fluky. It won’t be long before the most expensive defense will be whomever plays the Dolphins. The Patriots defense is still too cheap this week against the Jets.

That’s all for now! Hopefully, we can bounce back betting wise after that bizarre weeks two. Good luck to everyone!

 

Platinum 1-1 (50%)
Premium 7-6 (53.84%)
Overall 19-13 (59.37%)

College Teasers and Parlays 4-2 (66.66%) +240
College Picks 5-7 (41.66%)
NFL Teasers and Parlays 4-2 (66.66%) +480
NFL Picks 5-4 (55.55%)
Overall Teasers and Parlays 8-4 (66.66%) +720
Overall Picks 10-11 (47.61%)

Baseball Record 89-59 +2359
Baseball Parlays 28-74 -995

We made it! This is such a strange week. It appears the Raiders are underpriced in DFS and there are some trap spots out there.

How can you play three Raiders in cash? This is the most dangerous spot I can recall in cash that seems so obvious. Three Raiders are under priced in Jacobs, Waller and Gazelle. In a game against the Chiefs can we really play three of them in cash? Yes. This is counter intuitive to what you should do in cash, but the price and spot is unique. If the Raiders played Sunday last week their prices would be vastly different. I will hesitantly click all three in cash games and expect they all reach value.

Stacks For the Week
Carr/Cheap Raiders/Watkins
Goff/Rams WR/Kamara
Ben/JUJU/Lockett

Those are the three stacks I am running in some sort of  combination of players. If you read our player pool post you know who should be considered in those spots.

Wagers
Pitt -4
Fantastic bounce back spot. Seattle gave up 400 yards passing to Andy Dalton. This is a get right spot for the Steelers offense.

JAX +8
Gardener the Goat was good last week. Short week for Houston coming off road MNF win, this feels like it plays slower and closer than the spread. Houston wins, but Jax will be good with the points.

NYG +2
Buffalo should have lost last week and the Giants have to win at some point this year. Barkley should be able to get going and Evan Engram may catch 17 passes this week. The Jets exploited the middle of the field last week against the Bills and the Giants should do that too.

Three Team 7 Point Tease
Buff +9
Pitt +3
Jax +14.5
+120

Three Team Money Line Parlay
NE
Balt
DAL
+200 (Odds Boost on Fan Duel Sports Book)

I tweeted about this parlay yesterday and you should be max betting it. That is all for today! Good luck everyone!

Week 2 has already started and the computer is already 1-0! Looking ahead to DFS this weekend and things are not as clear as week one. There are two games with massive totals we should be targeting. There are a few games that could blowout. There are spots that could be very contrarian. Week 2 is always strange as teams that lost are not as bad as they looked and teams that won are not as good as they look. Week 2 normally brings to regression, both positive and negative. I am very leery or spots that look too good and too obvious. I will reserve those for cash games. We do have a strange situation that all four teams from Monday Night Football have not had their prices adjusted much at all. This leads to some tremendous value.

Without further ado my week two player pool!

Quarterback
Phillip Rivers – Detroit might be bad on defense.
Lamar – I will fade him again at my detriment. GULP.
Gardner the Goat – He is so cheap and could be my cash game QB. What could possibly go wrong?
Ben – Home/Road splits are a thing. Dalton threw for over 400 yards on Seattle.
Jared Goff – Massive total and he is at home. This feels like a great GPP spot.
Carr – Ohhh, I played Foles against KC and I will go right back and attack them again.

Running Backs
Kamara – He is the best play of the week at RB. I may go 100% here.
Ingram – I like him better than Lamar again.
Austin Ekeler – Chargers missing pass catchers, he might be even more involved in the pass game.
Sony – Man I want to play him in GPP so badly.
Gio – Mixon seems like he may play so Gio won’t make a lineup if this keeps up.

Wide Receiver
Deon Cain – Min price in a rough game.
Travis Benjamin – Chargers have to play two WR at some point.
Keenan Allen – Allen will be one of them.
Amari Cooper – Speed burner killed Wash last week.
Dede – I like Gardner the Goat a little too much.
Tyler Lockett – Need to run back my Steeler stacks with someone.
DK – Maybe this guy instead?
JUJU – Steelers stack looks fantastic to me.
Donte Concrete – Yes, he dropped a pass or two, but he is going to get another shot this week.
Michael Thomas – I will be game stacking this game.
Cooper Kupp – Solid and will be a cash game staple this week.
The Gazelle – Too cheap and gets the Chiefs. I want to play two Raiders in cash. Not a fan.

Tight End
Darren Waller – CHALK as he should be.
Engram – If he gets that many targets again, he is too cheap.
Hock – The admiral Akbar play of the week. Alternatively, he’s just really good.
Kittle – Too much value at TE to play him, so he will be low owned.

Defense
Chicago – Get to play Denver
Denver – Get to play Chicago
Other – I don’t have this figured out yet.

There is a significant amount of data that says playing two tight ends is not a winning GPP strategy, but man, this week feels different. There are three cheap TE’s you can play that allow you to stack and play pretty much whomever you want. I will be playing two tight ends in some GPP lineups, maybe even in cash. It feels wrong because it is negative EV according to data and past GPP history. I think it is important to try to think of each week as a separate entity, but there are rules we always must follow. We know that stacking and running it back is almost required to win a GPP in every scenario.

If you are following on Twitter, you saw that yesterday I won a Wild Cat ticket ($333) playing baseball. I have been trying for weeks and falling just short several times, but yesterday I broke through. The question as always is what stack do I want to run in this contest? I know what stacks I am planning on, but do I play it safe or do I go a little off the menu. If you know me or have been following I think, you know the answer.

Good luck everyone!

On most Thursdays we will be posting our computer model picks. You can see the record of the computer model below. We documented our history of the computer model and the record it has achieved before.  The computer model is pretty consistent and can be used to help advise in picks leagues or when making wagers. The computer model will always use the spreads from the Hilton NFL Handicapping Super Contest. These spreads are set on Wednesday night and thus, we use them for our model. Perhaps you are in a similar contest where you pick five games against the spread every week. I know I am.

Last week the computer had zero Platinum plays and seven premium plays going 4-3. This week is a little different story. As you can tell by the spreads this week Vegas has over adjusted several teams for obvious reasons. Our computer model will remain steady in what it believes though, based on the data it has.

*Sam Darnold was just ruled out right before time of publication. If you are in a picks contest where the lines have locked, you should be taking Cleveland. The line is going to jump a lot and there is an edge to be had. Bumping Cleveland up to a premium play because of the news.

Platinum Plays
Miami +18.5
KC -7

Premium Plays
LAC -2.5
INDY +3
NYG +1.5
JAX +9
NO +2.5
Cle -2.5

Regular Plays
TB +6.5
SEA +4
CIN -2
MIN +3
Wash +5
ARZ +13
CHI -2.5
ATL +1.5

 

College Picks
My College selections have done pretty well. We are 4-4 in individual game selections, but a sweet 4-0 on parlays and teasers, meaning we are plus money for the year. This week brings a difficult challenge as my Pitt Panthers play a team I hate in Penn State. Pitt has looked horrid at times this year and the Nittany Lions have looked strong besides the first half against Buffalo.

PSU -17
I am all over PSU here. I suppose my worst-case scenario is PSU winning and not covering the spread. Pitt has struggled to score and PSU has not. Pitt has been out scored in the second half in both of their games. Pitt may keep it close for a half, but this will get ugly. I think the line is too low and should be around 21.5 or so. I am about making money, not thinking my team is better than it is.

UCF -8
Stanford has scored a combined 37 points in their two games and lost their starting quarterback. UCF has scored 110 points in the first two games. I realize that Stanford plays slow, but UCF plays extremely fast. If UCF gets a lead early, Stanford could be in big trouble. I am laying the points in this one.

Boston College -21 (Friday Night)
Make sure you get this wager in now before the line goes up. Also, it is a Friday night game. Boston College is quietly pretty good and Kansas despite a new head coach is still awful. Kansas struggled to beat Indiana State and lost to Coastal Carolina. Kansas cannot score so BC is going to win this game. This feels like a nice 35-0 shutout for the Eagles.

Illinois -7
Illinois started the year strong, but blew a lead at UCONN last week and still held on to win. This is the last game for Illinois before the Big Ten schedule starts and a must win if they are going to head to a bowl game.

Four Team 7 Point Teaser +200
PSU -10
UCF -1
BC -14
Ill PK

Platinum 0-0 (%)
Premium 4-3 (57.14%)
Overall 11-5 (68.75%)

College Teasers and Parlays 4-0 (100%) +440
College Picks 4-4 (50%)
NFL Teasers and Parlays 3-1 (75%) +380
NFL Picks 4-1 (80%)
Overall Teasers and Parlays 7-1 (87.5%) +820
Overall Picks 8-5 (61.53%)

Baseball Record 89-59 +2359
Baseball Parlays 28-74 -995