Like most weeks, we hope to be on some of the sharper plays. In the gambling world, you are either a sharp or a square. In other terms, you are a wise guy or a public bettor. The goal for every gambler is to make their way from square to sharp in hopes of turning a profit when betting sports. One of the easiest ways to make money-betting sports is to always fade the public. The public is dumb. The public only recalls what happened most recently and tends to make mistakes often. Yet, the public can be correct at times too. Over time, you want to be against the public, as casinos exist for a reason. This week there are two teams the public seems to be all over and the professional handicappers are on the other side. The public loves New Orleans coming off three straight wins, playing the Jaguars. The public always really likes the Eagles getting points against the Vikings. In both spots, the professionals are on the other side. In the case of the Saints, backing the Jags makes sense. Teddy Bridgewater will be out doors on the road against an above average defense. The public just sees a red-hot Saints team that they feel is better than the Jags and should be favored. Despite 74% of the tickets on the Saints, the line has moved in favor of the Jags. The same case can be made for the Vikings and Eagles. More tickets are on the Eagles at a 2-1 rate, but the line has not moved. If anything, it appears headed toward Vikings -3.5. These are both instances we should be aware of when making wagers and to tread carefully. After all, if a bet looks too good to be true, it probably is.

We knew it was coming. The computer only knows data and does not understand how bad and injured the Giants are. We have a metric to adjust for these situations, but despite that adjustment, the computer loves the New York Giants tonight. I suppose the teams that New England has beaten really plays into the computer results as well. It is somewhat surprising that the computer does not like Cincinnati more than it does. I would have thought getting double-digits, the computer would have the Bengals in the premium or higher category, but by the slimmest of margins, it just missed the cut.

Last week did not go well for the computer as it continues to love large dogs, especially when they are double digits. It worked well for the Colts, but not as well for those teams that are tanking for Tua. This week appears to be more of the same.

Platinum Plays
NYG +17
NO +1.5

Premium Plays
LAR -3
ATL -2.5
NYJ +7

Regular Plays
Car -2.5
Sea -1
KC -4.5
Mia +3.5
Minn -3
CIN +11
Ten +2
Pitt +6.5
DET +4

College Wagers
Georgia -24
They win every game by more than ten points and get to plat a South Carolina team that has trouble scoring. If you have been reading every week you know I like to attack teams that cannot score.

Texas +10.5
This game always plays close and I will take the points here.

Duke -17.5
Georgia Tech is terrible and you guessed it, struggle to score. Duke has put up points on everyone and after having some problems with a good Pitt defense, gets the best possible matchup in the conference.

Central Michigan -10
New Mexico State scored 52 points in one game, and then has scored 17 or less in every other game. I am ready to back the MAC team here for an easy win. This line should be closer to 21.

My NFL Wagers
Pittsburgh +7
I was very happy to see this at +7. I believe the Steelers defense is elite and will make things difficult with the Chargers offensive line issues. The Steelers can win the game, but they will keep it close no matter what.

 

Platinum 8-4 (66.66%)
Premium 12-9 (57.14%)
Overall 45-30-2 (60%)

College Teasers and Parlays 4-4 (50%) +40
College Picks 13-13-1 (50%)
NFL Teasers and Parlays 4-4 (50%) +280
NFL Picks 12-7 (63.15%)
Overall Teasers and Parlays 8-8 (50%) +320
Overall Picks 25-20-1 (55.55%)

Baseball Record 93-61 +2586
Baseball Parlays 28-74 -995

In the NFL every week, there are injuries and as a result, there is value to be had when playing DFS. This seems like a rare week that is almost devoid of value. Looking at Draft Kings pricing and there is one person under $4k that we know for sure will be seeing a ton of snaps in Auden Tate. Tate should be the highest owned player on Draft Kings especially in cash games. Unless some unexpected injuries news pops up, this will be the tightest priced week on Draft Kings in recent memory.

We are officially in “jam in the stud running backs and figure out the rest territory,” as we were a few years ago in cash. At a point two years ago, all you had to do was play David Johnson, Todd Gurley and Lev Bell along with some cheap value wide receivers. Add in a cheaper quarterback and you had a massive floor of almost 90 points every week. In cash games, this was extremely valuable. Last year, this was not as simple. There were no clear-cut running backs who you knew would play a high snap percentage and was a lock for touches every week. Fast forward to this year and we are back to having some secure plays. I feel very confident that Dalvin Cook, CMC and David Johnson have an insanely high floor. Between targets and rushes, all three will have a chance to touch the ball 25 or more times. All three are also in fantastic spots this week. Yes, I am calling Jacksonville a great spot. I will be jamming all three in cash games this week and looking for value in other areas.

As for the rest of the DFS player pool.

Quarterbacks
Watson – I am going back to the well after he crushed me last week. Best spot of the week. Hope the price keeps ownership down.
Matt Ryan – This game will go over.
Kyler Murray – Short week for the Bengals and they are awful.
Dak – They started feeding Zeke and the offense looked worse. Gallup back.
Mason Rudolph – The Ravens defense has quietly been bad. Steelers did just enough on Monday. Feels like it could be the Rudolph bust out spot. No one will play him, with reason.

Running Backs
Cook – Cash game staple.
CMC – Just playing him every week until he is 9.5K.
DJ – Fantastic spot against the Bengals.
Zeke – Green Bay has not been able to stop the run.
Conner – Oh the price is low and a Steelers onslaught is very interesting.
Samuels – If Conner is actually hurt and sits, lock city.

Wide Receivers
Tate – Cash Game lock.
Hopkins – I am going to ride this train off the cliff.
Theilen – I am playing Cook instead.
Julio – God this game feels like a shootout.
Fuller – Oh, I cannot wait to watch him not do anything again.
Tyler Boyd – Everyone looks good against the Cards.
Amari CSURAM88 Cooper – Everyone wants to play Zeke and I want to stack up Dak and Cooper.
Larry – Cardinals onslaught anyone?
MVS/Allison – I hope Adams sits so I can play one of these cheap guys and watch them go 4-55.
Emmanuel Mrs. Jennings Sanders – Sutton will get shadowed in the slot so.
Golden Tate – Really, like the price on Fan Duel.
Baby Chark – Guy keeps producing.
Diontae Johnson – Is the clear No.2 WR in Pittsburgh now. Is constantly open. Ravens secondary has been bad. This is a GPP winning guy.

Tight End
Nick Vannett – There is very little value but need Vanimal to sit here.
Austin Hooper – If you want a piece of this game, but cannot get up to Julio.
Tyler Eifert – I mean someone has to catch the ball. Will he lay enough snaps?
Knox – He is cheap. That is all I got.
Waller the Baller – Plays every snap and gets insane volume.
Mark Andrews – Is he going to be questionable every game?

Defense
New England – if you can get up to them do it.
Philly – No Darnold again.
Chicago – Mack revenge game.
New Orleans – Jameis INT regression incoming.
Buffalo – Get great pressure and the Titans have to turn it over eventually.
Tennessee – If there is no Josh Allen.
Pittsburgh – This is the GPP play. They force turnovers and get to face a team that is fumbling often.

 

This is my current plan! Good luck everyone!

Platinum 7-2 (77.77%)
Premium 11-8 (57.89%)
Overall 41-22-1 (65.07%)

College Teasers and Parlays 4-4 (50%) +40
College Picks 11-12 (47.82%)
NFL Teasers and Parlays 4-4 (50%) +280
NFL Picks 10-6 (62.5%)
Overall Teasers and Parlays 8-8 (50%) +320
Overall Picks 21-18 (53.84%)

Baseball Record 92-60 +2584
Baseball Parlays 28-74 -995

Week five is here and the AFC remains the strangest looking conference after four weeks in recent memory. Only three teams have a winning record. THREE. I am sure you are well aware of two of them, New England and Kansas City. Buffalo being 3-1 feels strange, but that schedule is soft. That is the list. I am sure we could make something of the fact that there are some abysmal teams that might be or should consider tanking. Even with these terrible teams near the bottom of the standings there seems to be a cannibalization happening in the rest of the league. No one else is standing out, because no one else is that much better or consistent than anyone else.  How can we use this to our advantage as sports bettors? Going into last week teams giving a touchdown or more had not lost a game all season. Than week four happened and several of them not only did not cover, they lost outright. The data at this point would also suggest home field means nothing. Of course, the underdogs covering and road teams winning means that regression will occur in that area as well.

Most people when they bet games only look at the prior week, or at least the recall the most recent event that occurred. Take for example the Cleveland Browns. Browns had too much hype to start the year, disappointed then seemingly out of nowhere ran through the Ravens last Sunday. The general public consensus was that Baltimore was a significantly better football team than the Browns. In reality, both teams have flaws and are inconsistent. Without consistency, a wider range of outcomes is always in play. Our computer model aims to narrow down those outcomes and ignore recency bias. The computer does not know the Browns were hyped up as Super Bowl contenders. All the computer cares about is what each team’s data says. Having said that, you will notice the trend that the computer always likes getting larger point quantities. That trend will continue this week as well, but thankfully, Miami is not on the slate.

Platinum Plays
NO -3.5
NYJ +13.5
Wash +15.5

Premium Plays
Indy +11
Clev +3.5

Regular Plays
LAR +1
CIN -3
Ten -3
Chi -5.5
NYG +5.5
Pit +3
Jax +3.5
ATL +5
Den +6.5
GB +6.5

 

I hope that you continue to follow us on Twitter as we post other wagers throughout the week. We were very fortunate to start the MLB playoffs off with a 2-0 start and will look to continue that today by suggesting the OVER 9.5 in the Atlanta/STL game at +102.

For college football, we have a few wagers for the weekend. This weekend sees many ranked teams laying big points before playing a pivotal conference match up the following week. In these situations, it is always better to tread lightly and be aware of what is on the horizon.

Tulsa +13
SMU just was ranked for the first time since getting the death penalty before some of you reading this were even born. Tulsa is a good team that has been competitive in all four of their games. The 2-2 record is slightly deceiving since their two losses are to Oklahoma State and Michigan State. Tulsa also beat a good Wyoming team two weeks ago.

Purdue +28
I know the Pitt graduate and fan is betting against Penn State, but hear me out. Purdue can score dropping 31,13,42,31 in the first four weeks of the year. PSU has scored in bunches as well, but have a massive road game at Iowa next week. With hopes of making a run at the CFB playoffs, PSU may be looking ahead and struggle to cover in this one. I also noticed the line here in Pennsylvania is 28, but 27.5 in other places. Looks like PA bettors have to pay a home team tax to take PSU.

Air Force -3.5
Air Force has been a sharp bettors darling early in the season and get a chance to continue against one of their service academy rivals on the road. Air Force has scored 30+ in every game except their close loss at Boise State. Navy does not have enough offense to keep up in this one.

Georgia -24.5
I can recall when Georgia and Tennessee was a big game, but the Volunteers are terrible now. Georgia has had two weeks to prepare following their win over Notre Dame. I like betting against teams that cannot score and Tennessee fits the bill perfectly. Georgia will grind down Tennessee and win easily.

 

Platinum 7-2 (77.77%)
Premium 11-8 (57.89%)
Overall 41-22 (65.07%)

College Teasers and Parlays 4-4 (50%) +40
College Picks 11-12 (47.82%)
NFL Teasers and Parlays 4-4 (50%) +280
NFL Picks 10-6 (62.5%)
Overall Teasers and Parlays 8-8 (50%) +320
Overall Picks 21-18 (53.84%)

Baseball Record 91-60 +2484
Baseball Parlays 28-74 -995

When these sportsbooks have odds boosts promotions, they started exceptionally. Slowly, they have become weird and awful. (The final score to be odd or even comes to mind) I understand they do not have to offer these promotions, but if they were not making money on driving action, they would not do it. On Thursday, Rivers and Sugar House had the Eagles at +10 listed at +100. This is the best promotion in a while for any of the sites. Tonight, I actually bet one on Fan Duel.

JuJu to have 100+ Yards and Steelers to win +250 (Max Bet $25)

I took advantage of another promotion too. If you bet, a money line in week four and the team loses by six or less you get a refund up to $50.

Steelers -177

Obviously, I am assuming the Steelers win tonight. I bet the Max on the Juju prop and I bet the Steelers money line. I believe the Steelers win tonight. In fact…

Pitt -3.5

The Steelers crush at home on Monday Night Football. The numbers are insane. I realize Ben is not there, but they will not lose this game at home when they can save their season. A Steeler win puts them one game back in the division after starting 0-3.

 

I know the betting public got crushed yesterday, but guess who did not, our computer model. The computer model was fantastic yesterday going 1-0 in platinum, 2-2 in premium and 9-5 overall with the Steelers tonight. Below we have our season long percentages and they are astounding. At almost a fourth of the way into the NFL season, it would be silly to not expect some regression, but for right now, we should continue riding the wave. Good luck everyone!

 

Platinum 7-2 (77.77%)
Premium 11-8 (57.89%)
Overall 40-22 (64.51%)

College Teasers and Parlays 4-4 (50%) +40
College Picks 11-12 (47.82%)
NFL Teasers and Parlays 4-3 (57.14%) +380
NFL Picks 8-6 (57.14%)
Overall Teasers and Parlays 8-7 (53.33%) +420
Overall Picks 19-18 (51.35%)

Baseball Record 89-60 +2259
Baseball Parlays 28-74 -995

I know I keep saying that each week is strange. However, in a small sample size game that will happen. This week’s main slate feels smaller than usual. I think it is because some games you can just cross off and avoid completely. Normally, we have a 12 game main slate to work with. Nevertheless, this week we have two games (Jax/Den and Chi/Min) that have such a lowly expected fantasy output that you could essentially cross them off as well. A few other teams are facing elite defenses and have not proven they are worth of consideration in Cleveland, Miami, Buffalo, Tennessee, and maybe New England. All the sudden this full slate looks pretty small. Factor in a few injuries and my normally large player pool feels tiny compared to other weeks. At the time of this writing there are only three stacks I really like. Normally, I am heading into the weekend looking to cut down on options, this week I am looking to add them. On to the week four player pool!

Quarterback
Danny Dime – Everyone say the Bears throw the ball on the deadskins.
Watson – My favorite play and stack of the week.
Mahomes – You have to make a Mahomes stack every week. It is the law.
Wilson – Stack against Arizona is the other new DFS rule.
Case – If you want to stack this game.

Running Back
Wayne Gallman – I am kidding, I am not playing him. He is the Admiral Akbar play of the week.
Ekeler – I assume he is still starting and getting most of the work against Miami.
Marlon Mack – Large home favorite and missing their best WR.
CMC – Remember when we used to jam in those running backs with high usage every week and figure out the rest later. DO IT WITH CMC EVERY WEEK.
Kerryon – Too cheap for a game against the Coors Field of the NFL, the Chiefs.
James White – Soooo, if Edelman sits, I really like James White.
CC the Fumble Machine – Anyone against Arizona is in play.

Wide Receiver
Julio – In play every week.
F1 – It appears he is hurt now so.
Paul Richardson – Welcome to Paul Richardson Chalk week. What could possibly go wrong?
Sterling – Danny Dimes makes everyone in play now.
Keenan Allen – In play every week.
Cain – Not the Robocop 2 Villain. If TY is out, someone has to catch passes.
Hopkins – My favorite stack of the week.
Will Fuller – Oh, I am playing lots of him this week.
Hardman – Chiefs WR are always in play.
Watkins – ALL of THEM.
DJ Moore – Carolina is much better with a healthy QB.
Kirk – PPR sites are great for Cards.
Larry – See Kirk.
Lockett – Arizona is bad.

Tight Ends
Engram – Danny Dimes!
Waller – Plays all the snaps and gets tons of targets.
Dissly – Too cheap and again Arizona.

Defenses
LAC – Miami.
Indy – The Raiders will turn it over.
Denver – This line smells, I like Denver.

 

I am sure I will change my mind several times over the next few days, but for now, I am planning to play this player pool. Good luck everyone!

I cannot believe we are already at week four! It feels like the season takes forever to start, but then it just goes so fast! This is the first year with legalized gambling in Pennsylvania at the start of the football season. I have mentioned some odds boosts that have been offered and there have been some great promotions too.

Of course, I entered the Pennsylvania Football picking championship hosted on Sugar House and Bet Rivers. I am very curious how this entire thing plays out. The leader after three weeks has 37 wins. I have 29 wins. I am eight games back after three weeks. The goal is to win the entire thing, but cashing would be interesting too. I currently sit in 1993^rd place. They are paying out the top 500 spots. If you are in a picks league how do you measure up. One thing to remember is that this contest excludes the Thursday night games every week. It is only Sunday and Monday games. Once you lock in your picks, you cannot make any changes. I will post periodically and update with how I am doing in this contest.

Before getting to our weekly computer picks, I have made two wagers myself.

Buffalo +7.5
This line has been hovering around 7 since it opened. When I saw, it hit 7.5 I had to jump on it. I think New England wins a close low scoring game. This is a fantastic set up for the Bills. The crowd will be insane, the Bills defense is fantastic, and Brady has not played well in Buffalo. I will happily take just over a touchdown.

Tampa Bay +10
Tampa Bay is two plays away from being 3-0. Are the Bucs good? No. This is a great spot though. The Rams played a road Sunday night game and now on a short week are expected to give double digits to a team that can score. The Rams offense has not been great at this point and their running game is spotty at best. The Rams win here, but this is too many points. When this line hit double-digits, I had no choice but to lock in the Bucs.

If you have been following along you already know one of the teams the computer really likes. This weeks computer selections are interesting.

Platinum
New Orleans +2.5

Premium
Seattle -5.5
Miami +15.5
Indy -6.5
Tennessee +4

Regular Selections
Philly +4
Buff +7
KC -6.5
Wash +3
Clev +6.5
Car +4.5
TB +9.5
Chi -1.5
Den -3
Pit -3.5

College Wagers
Wisconsin -24
Northwestern Can’t score at all and Wisconsin will run the ball down your throat the entire game. Just ask Michigan how that worked out. This game feels like 42-0. Wisconsin might just be very good, or Michigan really is that bad. I think the truth is a little of both, either way I am laying the points.

Temple -9
Temple upsets Maryland and then comes crashing back down to Earth against Buffalo. Georgia Tech is just awful though. This is a perfect spot for Temple to get better and beat up on a bad power five team

Wyoming -9.5
We are headed way west for our last college selection of the week. Wyoming upset Missouri to start the season and then lost a close game on the road last week. UNLV is just terrible and could easily be 0-3 right now. The lone UNLV win is over the football powerhouse that is Southern Utah. Wyoming is better at home and I am not afraid of the long illustrious history of Southern Utah Football.

Three Team 7 Point Teaser +140
Wisconsin -17
Temple -2
Wyoming -2.5

One last thing, I noticed that I forgot to count my live wager from Saturday in my record. I had UCF on the money line and UCF +4.5. I added the one win and one loss to make sure my record was accurate and correct.

Platinum 6-2 (75%)
Premium 9-6 (60%)
Overall 31-17 (64.58%)

College Teasers and Parlays 4-3 (57.14%) +140
College Picks 9-10 (47.36%)
NFL Teasers and Parlays 4-2 (66.66%) +480
NFL Picks 6-5 (54.54%)
Overall Teasers and Parlays 8-5 (61.53%) +620
Overall Picks 15-15 (50%)

Baseball Record 89-60 +2259
Baseball Parlays 28-74 -995

Football is a strange game. There are so few data points that we must do our best to predict what is most likely to happen with small sample sizes. We can project touches, game flow, or how we believe the game may unfold. All of that could mean nothing with a small news update. Last Sunday I was planning to play Shady McCoy, Keenan Allen and Mark Andrews in my main cash game lineup. I thought Shady was a little thin, but felt better than playing Frank Gore. Then the pre-game warmups started. Mark Andrews was reportedly barely running. Shady was running with the third team and looked like an emergency only type running back. After getting those two updates, I felt I had to pivot. I did not want to come off Allen, but I really liked my other pieces. I had locked Kyle Allen, CMC and Dalvin Cook in along with Larry Fitzgerald and the Pats defense. I never considered coming off the Pats defense in cash, but perhaps I should have.

Reluctantly, I went to John Brown, Vance Macdonald and Austin Ekeler. Vance was not my favorite, but I was just short of getting up to Evan Engram and his targets with Rudolph last week were encouraging. That 3v3 swap was horrid. My lineup still cashed in 60% of my cash games, but surely would have swept and won them all without the sweep.

Process over results.

I keep telling myself that my process was correct, despite the results being bad. Shady was hurt again and only played 24 snaps. He scored two touchdowns on those 24 snaps. Mark Andrews was a non-factor and looked hurt. Allen crushed. If I had just gone down to Gore and up to Engram, I crush. I dumped all my Andrews shares and ended up with some Engram, Kittle, Ertz and Vance.

My best GPP lineups on each site seemed to be going extremely well, and then Arizona stopped scoring. Everything was in place for a nice or pretty big score, but the shootout in Arizona never happened. The Panthers just blew out the Cardinals.

 

The process you should be trusting is our computer model. The computer is destroying against the spread hitting on all games at almost 65%! Platinum plays and premium plays are on fire too! We will be posting this plays every Thursday! Until then, good luck everyone!

 

Platinum 6-2 (75%)
Premium 9-6 (60%)
Overall 31-17 (64.58%)

College Teasers and Parlays 4-3 (57.14%) +140
College Picks 8-9 (47.05%)
NFL Teasers and Parlays 4-2 (66.66%) +480
NFL Picks 6-5 (54.54%)
Overall Teasers and Parlays 8-5 (61.53%) +620
Overall Picks 14-14 (50%)

Baseball Record 89-60 +2259
Baseball Parlays 28-74 -995

Injuries at the quarterback position have taken over as the dominant fantasy story line as we approach week three of the NFL season. I am not going to mention who is out. You should already know. Honestly, if you are reading this you should be well aware of the injuries. A few years ago finding out information or practice reports was very difficult. Now, I get that information sent to my phone with zero effort. In a game with incomplete information, knowledge is key. Unlike the NBA where timing can matter a great deal, here in the NFL we should know everything ahead of time. I mentioned in my post the other day what we know about the NFL after two weeks. How can we take advantage of what we know and use it to be profitable in DFS? That is the key.

My week three player pool.

Quarterback
Josh Allen – Everyone is carving up the Bengals and Allen is next on the list.
Kyle Allen – I do not know anything about him, but he is 4k on Draft Kings and everyone is scoring on the Cardinals.
Mahomes – Do I need to tell you to play him?
Lamar – This is the week I stack him and I do not see how he fails.
Mason – Ohhhh, sneaky play since the Steelers cannot run the ball.

Running Back
CMC – No Cam, lock for a ton of touches.
Dalvin Cook – Massive home favorite and should get 20+ carries in a great spot.
Marlon Mack – If healthy love him in this spot.
DJ – This game is sneaky and I like it.
Ekeler – Take away his fumble at the one and he smashes even more last week. Getting top end usage without the price.
Barkley – Offense can only get better.

Wide Receiver
Tyler Boyd – If you need to run back your Bills stack.
John Brown – Continues to exceed his price with Josh Allen.
AGO – The Eagles have almost no healthy WR. He is $3600 on Draft Kings.
Hollywood Brown – Think they throw against the Chiefs?
Sammy Watkins – After let down last week, the targets are still there.
DJ Moore – Targets are there every week.
Larry Fitz – I am starting to believe in this offense.
Kirk – GAME STACK IS IN PLAY.
Ty Hilton – At home against the Falcons secondary.
James Washington – They can’t play Donte Concrete again can they?
Keenan Allen – Target monster at home in a competitive game.

Tight End
Ertz – Eagles have no one to throw to.
Waller – Always in play.
Mark Andrews – If he is healthy I want him.
George Kittle – Steelers were crushed by the TE last week.

Defense
New England – They saved me last week.
Dallas – Paying up for defense feels so wrong.

I said it last week and will say it again; defense is so random that paying up for the position has been wrong. However, these are unusual situations. Favorites of this size are not normal. It is going to be chalky to pay up for defense this week, so maybe it makes sense to not do that. This is my plan as of right now! I am sure it will change as the weekend continues. When making stacks, remember that they should tell the game story you think will happen. Good luck everyone.

Week 3 is here and I have already made some wagers. We have our computer picks, we have some college picks and of course, there were some NFL lines I had to lock in early. The computer is off to a solid start, but it has some opinions with the big lines we have this week. I mentioned it before but the computer loves getting a large amount of points. History and data say that getting many points historically, has worked out for the dog. The Patriots had not covered as a two touchdown or larger favorite ever, until last week. Yet, here we are.

Platinum Plays
Pitt +6.5
Cincy +6
Mia +21.5
NYJ +22.5
Car +3
NYG +6.5

Premium Plays
LAR -3
INDY -1.5

Regular Plays
Ten -1.5
Den +7.5
Balt +6.5
Minn -8.5
Det +6
LAC -3
NO +4
LAR -3
CHI -4

NFL Wagers
I have locked in two bets already. I am worried the lines for both may head in the opposite direction.

NE -22
This line could easily go up higher and is around -22.5 or -23 in most spots. By Sunday, this will get t over -24. I just do not see how the Jets score. This feels like a 35-0 game.

Det +6.5
The Eagles played late Sunday night, have plenty of injuries, and had to make their Wednesday practice into a walk through. It is possible the Eagles will have three healthy WR Sunday. This game feels like it goes under and stays very close. The Lions will assist in that by their slow play. Oddly, the Lions could easily be 2-0 right now and get to play the banged up Eagles on a short week. I think the Eagles win a tight close game.

 

College Wagers
UCF -11
PITT CANNOT SCORE. THEY HAVE THREE POINTS IN THE SECOND HALF THIS YEAR. THREE. THAT IS ONE POINT A GAME IN THE SECOND HALF. THEY DO NOT HAVE A SECOND HALF TD IN THEIR LAST SIX GAMES. UCF is actually good and they can score.

Wisconsin -3.5
This line smells. Michigan has problems scoring at home against bad teams, now they are going to go on the road and score on a team that has given up zero points this year. Michigan will be exposed here.

Oregon -10.5
Stanford is in bad shape and like the other teams mentioned above cannot score at all. Oregon just needs to get to 28 points to cover the way this seems to be going. I like targeting bad teams that cannot score if you did not notice.

Washington State -18.5
UCLA is terrible and you guessed it, they cannot score.

ND +14.5
This is a strange spot. ND is perennially overrated and ends up losing anytime they play a real team. Georgia likes to run the ball and plays slower than most of the premiere teams. I think Georgia wins this game by a touchdown, and it will be close the entire time.

5 Team 7 Point Teaser +350
UCF -4
Wisconsin +3.5
Oregon -3.5
Wash ST -11.5
ND +21.5

We will be back tomorrow with our DFS player pool. Until then, good luck everyone!

 

Platinum 1-1 (50%)
Premium 7-6 (53.84%)
Overall 19-13 (59.37%)

College Teasers and Parlays 4-2 (66.66%) +240
College Picks 5-7 (41.66%)
NFL Teasers and Parlays 4-2 (66.66%) +480
NFL Picks 5-4 (55.55%)
Overall Teasers and Parlays 8-4 (66.66%) +720
Overall Picks 10-11 (47.61%)

Baseball Record 89-60 +2259
Baseball Parlays 28-74 -995

Week two in the NFL is always strange. Normally, there is an overreaction and lines are inflated. The lines were, but we have some historically bad teams and some injuries that have altered the league in many ways. This affected not only betting but fantasy as well. Most of the DFS professionals had bad weeks. You can check their twitter timeline and see how things went. My week was average. I broke even on Fan Duel and made money on Draft Kings. This was really only because I cashed in the Wild Cat.

Despite a large percent of my lineup busting or nor playing to expectation, I still got there. The decision to pay up and play the Patriots defense ended up being the difference. Cooper Kupp’s late touchdown being overturned also cost me some money, but no complaints here. Any week not losing is a good week. The most important thing though is what did we learn?

Things we learned after Two weeks
1. Baltimore will not hand off to Mark Ingram when they have a lead. They continued to run Lamar and their offense. Also, Hollywood is legit and so is his market share. If you don’t run a Lamar/Hollywood stack this week against Kansas City, you should not be playing DFS.

2. The Steeler’s offense will not suffer with out Ben. Mason Rudolph was fine in the second half. The interception was Donte Concrete’s fault. Pittsburgh is a seven point dog in San Francisco this week. That feels juicy to me. Try and trade for JuJu right now if you can for as cheap as possible in season long.

3. Home Field advantage means nothing. Seriously, playing at home has slowly meant less and less. Even Vegas has stopped making the home team and automatic three point favorite.

4. Get used to these massive spreads. Teams are tanking much sooner and realizing they can not compete at the highest level. Our computer model sees anything near 14 points and will always take them. Miami and the Jets are going to test this model going forward. Both teams are huge dogs this week, again.

5. If you believe in a team, bet them, but situations do matter. The Bears had ten days off and the Broncos lost a late road Monday Night Game after week one. In the past this was a schedule loss for the Broncos. Short rest, quick travel and injuries meant that teams could not compete at a high level. This happens every Thursday night, but that is an even playing field. There is no reason, other than talent, that the Bears should have not won easily. The other three teams that played on Monday night all lost and did not cover. (Houston, New Orleans, Oakland) The Jets have a short week and play at New England with a third string quarterback. 22 points won’t be enough.

6. Buffalo will make the playoffs and Josh Allen needs to be our cash game QB as long as he is cheap. LOOK AT THEIR SCHEDULE. They can get to nine wins.

7. Paying up at defense in DFS was not a winning strategy. There is a ton of variance at defense and defensive TD’s are fluky. It won’t be long before the most expensive defense will be whomever plays the Dolphins. The Patriots defense is still too cheap this week against the Jets.

That’s all for now! Hopefully, we can bounce back betting wise after that bizarre weeks two. Good luck to everyone!

 

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