We made it! This is such a strange week. It appears the Raiders are underpriced in DFS and there are some trap spots out there.

How can you play three Raiders in cash? This is the most dangerous spot I can recall in cash that seems so obvious. Three Raiders are under priced in Jacobs, Waller and Gazelle. In a game against the Chiefs can we really play three of them in cash? Yes. This is counter intuitive to what you should do in cash, but the price and spot is unique. If the Raiders played Sunday last week their prices would be vastly different. I will hesitantly click all three in cash games and expect they all reach value.

Stacks For the Week
Carr/Cheap Raiders/Watkins
Goff/Rams WR/Kamara
Ben/JUJU/Lockett

Those are the three stacks I am running in some sort of  combination of players. If you read our player pool post you know who should be considered in those spots.

Wagers
Pitt -4
Fantastic bounce back spot. Seattle gave up 400 yards passing to Andy Dalton. This is a get right spot for the Steelers offense.

JAX +8
Gardener the Goat was good last week. Short week for Houston coming off road MNF win, this feels like it plays slower and closer than the spread. Houston wins, but Jax will be good with the points.

NYG +2
Buffalo should have lost last week and the Giants have to win at some point this year. Barkley should be able to get going and Evan Engram may catch 17 passes this week. The Jets exploited the middle of the field last week against the Bills and the Giants should do that too.

Three Team 7 Point Tease
Buff +9
Pitt +3
Jax +14.5
+120

Three Team Money Line Parlay
NE
Balt
DAL
+200 (Odds Boost on Fan Duel Sports Book)

I tweeted about this parlay yesterday and you should be max betting it. That is all for today! Good luck everyone!

Week 2 has already started and the computer is already 1-0! Looking ahead to DFS this weekend and things are not as clear as week one. There are two games with massive totals we should be targeting. There are a few games that could blowout. There are spots that could be very contrarian. Week 2 is always strange as teams that lost are not as bad as they looked and teams that won are not as good as they look. Week 2 normally brings to regression, both positive and negative. I am very leery or spots that look too good and too obvious. I will reserve those for cash games. We do have a strange situation that all four teams from Monday Night Football have not had their prices adjusted much at all. This leads to some tremendous value.

Without further ado my week two player pool!

Quarterback
Phillip Rivers – Detroit might be bad on defense.
Lamar – I will fade him again at my detriment. GULP.
Gardner the Goat – He is so cheap and could be my cash game QB. What could possibly go wrong?
Ben – Home/Road splits are a thing. Dalton threw for over 400 yards on Seattle.
Jared Goff – Massive total and he is at home. This feels like a great GPP spot.
Carr – Ohhh, I played Foles against KC and I will go right back and attack them again.

Running Backs
Kamara – He is the best play of the week at RB. I may go 100% here.
Ingram – I like him better than Lamar again.
Austin Ekeler – Chargers missing pass catchers, he might be even more involved in the pass game.
Sony – Man I want to play him in GPP so badly.
Gio – Mixon seems like he may play so Gio won’t make a lineup if this keeps up.

Wide Receiver
Deon Cain – Min price in a rough game.
Travis Benjamin – Chargers have to play two WR at some point.
Keenan Allen – Allen will be one of them.
Amari Cooper – Speed burner killed Wash last week.
Dede – I like Gardner the Goat a little too much.
Tyler Lockett – Need to run back my Steeler stacks with someone.
DK – Maybe this guy instead?
JUJU – Steelers stack looks fantastic to me.
Donte Concrete – Yes, he dropped a pass or two, but he is going to get another shot this week.
Michael Thomas – I will be game stacking this game.
Cooper Kupp – Solid and will be a cash game staple this week.
The Gazelle – Too cheap and gets the Chiefs. I want to play two Raiders in cash. Not a fan.

Tight End
Darren Waller – CHALK as he should be.
Engram – If he gets that many targets again, he is too cheap.
Hock – The admiral Akbar play of the week. Alternatively, he’s just really good.
Kittle – Too much value at TE to play him, so he will be low owned.

Defense
Chicago – Get to play Denver
Denver – Get to play Chicago
Other – I don’t have this figured out yet.

There is a significant amount of data that says playing two tight ends is not a winning GPP strategy, but man, this week feels different. There are three cheap TE’s you can play that allow you to stack and play pretty much whomever you want. I will be playing two tight ends in some GPP lineups, maybe even in cash. It feels wrong because it is negative EV according to data and past GPP history. I think it is important to try to think of each week as a separate entity, but there are rules we always must follow. We know that stacking and running it back is almost required to win a GPP in every scenario.

If you are following on Twitter, you saw that yesterday I won a Wild Cat ticket ($333) playing baseball. I have been trying for weeks and falling just short several times, but yesterday I broke through. The question as always is what stack do I want to run in this contest? I know what stacks I am planning on, but do I play it safe or do I go a little off the menu. If you know me or have been following I think, you know the answer.

Good luck everyone!

On most Thursdays we will be posting our computer model picks. You can see the record of the computer model below. We documented our history of the computer model and the record it has achieved before.  The computer model is pretty consistent and can be used to help advise in picks leagues or when making wagers. The computer model will always use the spreads from the Hilton NFL Handicapping Super Contest. These spreads are set on Wednesday night and thus, we use them for our model. Perhaps you are in a similar contest where you pick five games against the spread every week. I know I am.

Last week the computer had zero Platinum plays and seven premium plays going 4-3. This week is a little different story. As you can tell by the spreads this week Vegas has over adjusted several teams for obvious reasons. Our computer model will remain steady in what it believes though, based on the data it has.

*Sam Darnold was just ruled out right before time of publication. If you are in a picks contest where the lines have locked, you should be taking Cleveland. The line is going to jump a lot and there is an edge to be had. Bumping Cleveland up to a premium play because of the news.

Platinum Plays
Miami +18.5
KC -7

Premium Plays
LAC -2.5
INDY +3
NYG +1.5
JAX +9
NO +2.5
Cle -2.5

Regular Plays
TB +6.5
SEA +4
CIN -2
MIN +3
Wash +5
ARZ +13
CHI -2.5
ATL +1.5

 

College Picks
My College selections have done pretty well. We are 4-4 in individual game selections, but a sweet 4-0 on parlays and teasers, meaning we are plus money for the year. This week brings a difficult challenge as my Pitt Panthers play a team I hate in Penn State. Pitt has looked horrid at times this year and the Nittany Lions have looked strong besides the first half against Buffalo.

PSU -17
I am all over PSU here. I suppose my worst-case scenario is PSU winning and not covering the spread. Pitt has struggled to score and PSU has not. Pitt has been out scored in the second half in both of their games. Pitt may keep it close for a half, but this will get ugly. I think the line is too low and should be around 21.5 or so. I am about making money, not thinking my team is better than it is.

UCF -8
Stanford has scored a combined 37 points in their two games and lost their starting quarterback. UCF has scored 110 points in the first two games. I realize that Stanford plays slow, but UCF plays extremely fast. If UCF gets a lead early, Stanford could be in big trouble. I am laying the points in this one.

Boston College -21 (Friday Night)
Make sure you get this wager in now before the line goes up. Also, it is a Friday night game. Boston College is quietly pretty good and Kansas despite a new head coach is still awful. Kansas struggled to beat Indiana State and lost to Coastal Carolina. Kansas cannot score so BC is going to win this game. This feels like a nice 35-0 shutout for the Eagles.

Illinois -7
Illinois started the year strong, but blew a lead at UCONN last week and still held on to win. This is the last game for Illinois before the Big Ten schedule starts and a must win if they are going to head to a bowl game.

Four Team 7 Point Teaser +200
PSU -10
UCF -1
BC -14
Ill PK

Platinum 0-0 (%)
Premium 4-3 (57.14%)
Overall 11-5 (68.75%)

College Teasers and Parlays 4-0 (100%) +440
College Picks 4-4 (50%)
NFL Teasers and Parlays 3-1 (75%) +380
NFL Picks 4-1 (80%)
Overall Teasers and Parlays 7-1 (87.5%) +820
Overall Picks 8-5 (61.53%)

Baseball Record 89-59 +2359
Baseball Parlays 28-74 -995

Week one is in the books and it went pretty well overall. I crushed all my cash games on Draft Kings and was in the positive on Fan Duel. Nothing great happened in DFS, but any week where you do not lose is fantastic. I have really been working on my cash games and it felt great to sweep those. My best Fan Duel lineup was a Foles/Westbrook stack that cashed in everything despite Foles getting hurt early. That was disappointing, but what can you do.

My cash game lineup was what I thought were the obvious plays of the week.
Brissett
Cook
CMC
Thielen
Godwin
Westbrook
Henry
Carson
Seattle

That combination above was good for 180.30 Draft Kings points and as I stated a sweep of all my cash. I wish I had played more cash, ha. I thought CMC was the best running back play of the week and only guy worth paying up for. I was correct on that call. I almost played Hilton over Thielen, but I was leery of stacking up in my cash lineup, just in case it went very bad for the Colts.

In terms of my wagers, things went extremely well. (Record updated below) The computer went 11-5 ATS and I did even better. Thanks to Houston last night, I am a nice 7-1 on teasers and parlays this year in football. I thought the half time over in the first game was a joke and it came in early in the fourth quarter. Make sure you are following us on Twitter for when we post live bets in addition to our plays.

Overall, this was a successful week one. Positive on both major sites in terms of DFS and made money betting games. We are on to week two where we look to keep picking winners.

Platinum 0-0 (%)
Premium 4-3 (57.14%)
Overall 11-5 (68.75%)

College Teasers and Parlays 4-0 (100%) +440
College Picks 4-4 (50%)
NFL Teasers and Parlays 3-1 (75%) +380
NFL Picks 4-1 (80%)
Overall Teasers and Parlays 7-1 (87.5%) +820
Overall Picks 8-5 (61.53%)

Baseball Record 89-58 +2459
Baseball Parlays 28-74 -995

Nervous excitement. When you make picks and wager money it can make you nervous. Putting your picks online makes me even more nervous. Yet, I am pumped for week one. It’s Sunday Morning and I have made some wagers. I hope you are as excited as I am.

Carolina +108
I think the Panthers surprise the Rams and win the game. The public is all over the Rams. FADE THE PUBLIC. Cam is finally healthy and I think he lights it up tonight.

Arizona +128
Why is Detroit a road favorite? I love home dogs and this is a fantastic spot. The Detroit defense is not good, but neither is the Cardinals offensive line. I am siding with the offensive genius here and the home dog.

Two Team Teaser -140
Baltimore -.5
Car +7.5
All I need Baltimore to do is win the game. I obviously love Carolina.

Three team Money Line Parlay -105
Balt
Philly
Sea
I am asking three big favorites to just win the game. I love this play.

Seven Team 7 Point Teaser +700
Balt +.5
Jax +10.5
Car +9
Philly -3
Dallas PK
Pitt +12.5

 

This is my plan and I can’t wait for the games to start! Good luck everyone!

What a disappointing start to the NFL season last night. That game was boring and I wish I went to sleep much earlier. Instead, I watched most of that game and could have skipped it and missed nothing. I was happy that my wager of the Packers +7.5 came in last night though. In this blog every Friday, I will be posting my daily fantasy sports (DFS) player pool. I am currently considering these players for my lineups for the weekend. Not all of these players will end up in my lineups, but they are on my short list. You can find some of my contrarian stacks I am thinking about here.

 

Quarterback
Jameis Winston – Best game environment and he will be throwing a ton.
Dak Prescott – The Giants defense is bad, they may limit Zeke in week one.
Jimmy G – Same reason as Jameis.
Jacoby Brissett – He is so cheap and should be my QB in cash on Draft Kings.
Nick Foles – Ohhh he is sneaky this week.
Cam Newton – I love Cam this week. He will be low owned and is actually healthy.

Running Back
Chris Carson – I love him this week and may play 100% of him.
Dalvin Cook – Does everyone recall that Atlanta is awful against running backs?
Leonard Fournette – I kind of really like the Jags this week.
Mark Ingraham – Is only $5.1K and gets to play the Dolphins in week one.
Christian McCaffrey – I love the Panthers too. He is whom I am spending up for this week.
Austin Ekeler – Someone has to get the MG3 Carries!

Wide Receiver
Mike Evans – This game should be fun and have lots of scoring.
Chris Godwin – How many times can I say it?
Amari Cooper – Great pivot off Zeke and gets the Giants.
Dede Westbrook – He will be highly owned, but for a reason.
Ty Hilton – Sneaky good spot against the Chargers.
Cooper Kupp – He is healthy and produces when he is.
DJ Moore – I want all the Carolina offense.
Curtis Samuel – More Panthers!
Adam Thielen – The Atlanta secondary was awful last year and he should be a PPR monster.

Tight Ends
George Kittle – THIS GAME!
Evan Engram – The Giants have to throw to someone.
OJ Howard – You can play everyone from this game.
Travis Kelce – Pricy, but worth it in this matchup.
Hunter Henry – Hello, to my cash game tight end.

Defense
Baltimore – They get Miami.
Seattle – Have you seen the Bengals offensive line?
Dallas – ELI!

 

NCAA Bets
In terms of college wagers, I only like three games this weekend. The key is to not force the situation and allow the games to come to you. One of these teams is my team however and well, that scares me. I am staying away from Penn State again as they could easily blow out Buffalo as we saw last week. Buffalo is better, but barely beat Robert Morris.

Pitt -4
They are playing Ohio. They were winning at half time. If they cannot score on this team it is going to be a long year.

Boise St -12
This game is Friday night and should help you start your weekend off with a win. Boise just calmly came back and beat Florida State so I think they should be able to play well in their home opener.

Ohio State -16
I watched the entire Cincinnati game last week. Despite UCLA giving them the game multiple times, the Bearcats could not really open the game up. This is a bad sign heading into this week.

Three Team 7 Point Teaser
Pitt +3
Boise St -5
Ohio State -9
+140

Two Team 7 Point Teaser
Boise St -5
Ohio State -9
-140

Good luck everyone!

 

Platinum 0-0 (%)
Premium 0-0 (%)
Overall 0-1 (0%)

College Teasers and Parlays 2-0 (100%)
College Picks 2-3 (40%)
NFL Teasers and Parlays 0-0 (0%)
NFL Picks 1-0 (100%)
Overall Teasers and Parlays 2-0 (100%)
Overall Picks (3-3 50%)

Baseball Record 89-58 +2459
Baseball Parlays 28-74 -995

For the last four years, we have been running a computer model picking games against the spread. Every year the computer does pretty well. The key number is getting over 54% correct. That is the number needed to show a profit betting against the spread over the course of time. You will notice that we have divided our picks by how much the computer likes the games. The overall record is the spread pick of every single NFL game during that season. The next category is premium, which the computer likes more. Lastly, the platinum section is when the computer really likes a game. Some weeks the computer will have several platinum or premium selections and other weeks it will have almost zero. It is a computer and the data it shoots out can vary week to week. However, the computer is consistent overall, hovering right near that 54% line in selecting every game against the spread. Below you will see how the computer did every year and the collective total.

2015
Overall 132-132 50%
Platinum 2-1 66.67%
Premium 43-37 53.75%

2016
Overall 127-94 57.47%
Platinum 4-4 50%
Premium 30-24 55.56%

2017
Overall 108-99 52.17%
Platinum 6-4 60%
Premium 18-21 46.15%

2018
Overall 142-115 55.25%
Platinum 4-10 28.57%
Premium 33-19 63.46%
Playoff Record 6-3-1 66.66%

Four Year Total
Overall 509-440 53.63%
Platinum 16-19 45.71%
Premium 124-101 55.11%

While many sites and picking services may tell you what kind of streak they are on, we are fully transparent. If we make a selection and it loses, we add it to our record. We don’t tout hot streaks, we present all our data and let you make an informed decision as to what you want to bet. You might be in a picking contest, where you have to pick every game straight up or against the spread. The goal here is to give you some ideas as to what the computer likes and what we personally like too.

Premium Plays
TENN +5
WASH +10
KC -3.5
INDY +6.5
NYG +7
PITT +5.5
DEN PK

Regular Plays
CHI -3
BAL -6.5
MINN -4
BUFF +3
CAR +2.5
CIN +9.5
ARZ +3
TB PK
HOU +7

As you can tell, we did pretty well making picks last year. Much like baseball, the parlays and teasers did not go well. Fortunately, we already started hitting two teasers in college last weekend. You will see the record broken down by section at the bottom of this blog. If you don’t break down in detail where you are winning and losing how can you spot the holes in your betting strategy? As you can see we went 2-3 picking single games last week in college and 2-0 on teasers. The funny thing is if the teasers were parlays they would have been good as well. Oddly, I picked Michigan last Thursday, but then did not place them in any teasers on Saturday. Instead, I went with Illinois, whom I did not bet on Thursday.

2018
My Picks 36-28-3 (56.25%)
My Crazy Teasers and Parlays 17-28-1 -680

Lastly, I will probably not bet much baseball the rest of the way. I will happily take my profit and move on to football season. I do not have enough time to research and make baseball selections like I did now that football season is here. I have already made two NFL bets for this weekend. If you are not on the Fan Duel Sportsbook, I don’t know what you are waiting for. The daily odds boost are too good of a value to pass up. I mentioned it here before about the Sixers. I have the Packers +7.5 at +100. This has been boosted from -230. I also have Seattle to win the game against the Bengals at +100 too. This is boosted from -430. Both of these wagers are fantastic. If you aren’t checking the daily odds boost every day, you really should be.

Platinum 0-0 (%)
Premium 0-0 (%)
Overall 0-0 (%)

College Teasers and Parlays 2-0 (100%)
College Picks 2-3 (40%)
NFL Teasers and Parlays 0-0 (0%)
NFL Picks 0-0 (0%)
Overall Teasers and Parlays 2-0 (100%)
Overall Picks (2-3 40%)

Baseball Record 89-58 +2459
Baseball Parlays 28-74 -995

We made it. Football is back! Well, college football anyway. I am an NFL fan and that is my favorite sport. I think professional football is a superior product, but the game day atmosphere and pageantry of the college game is exceptional. I am a Pitt graduate and had the opportunity to watch Larry Fitzgerald in college. How he did not win the Heisman is insane to me, but I digress. We have an almost full slate of games that start tonight and run all the way through Monday. Soon enough the NFL will be back and all will seem right in the world to me.

I love the schedule and feeling once fall and football is back. Give me a hoody and jeans. Give me a beer at noon on the weekend. Give me a routine I know a love. There is something comforting about being able to turn on a TV and finding football on. Maybe that is how I was raised in Pittsburgh. You watch football and then of course, gamble on it.

Last year I did very little gambling on college football. I hit up a few games here and there, but never really dived into the product. That will change this year. Now that gambling and sports betting is legal and we have several avenues to use to make wagers, there is no way I am sitting this one out. As the games begin tonight, (I know we had week zero last week and two game), it is time to dive in. These are my wagers for the weekend.

For entertainment purposes only, I am going to pick each Pitt game. If I ever suggest betting on them, please tweet me and stop me. It is just better this way.

Weekly Pitt Selection
Pitt +2.5
The Panthers always win games they shouldn’t and then conversely, lose games they shouldn’t. This is a winnable game and if the program is going to make the leap and take the next step, a must win. Whom am I kidding; they are stuck in 7-5 purgatory forever.

Almost Bet It
Idaho +40
I could not pull the trigger here. Penn State is replacing a lot of offensive firepower and 40 points is a lot of wood to chop. Realistically, if Idaho scores ten points they should be way good. This game could be 35-0 at the half, or it could be 10-0. If Idaho had a better finish to last season I would have been more inclined to take them, but they have been blown out horribly before.

Illinois -18
Akron is in a full rebuild and was bad to end last year. Illinois is perpetually meh, but have a new quarterback that transferred from Michigan. Someone in Vegas is betting a lot on Illinois, which is raising some eyebrows. I will monitor.

Wagers For the Week
UCLA +3
Wait, I get a power five team coached by Chip Kelly returning almost all of their starters against a non-power five team and I am getting points. Yes, I know it is a road game, but I am taking the points and believe UCLA wins it tonight. I hope we can start the year off 1-0!

Oregon State +14
Oregon State was terrible last year, but Oklahoma State struggles on the road. The wise guys are all over Oregon State and I am not above piggy backing on them. This game will play much closer than 14 points.

Georgia – 22
I love this bet. It is my favorite of the weekend. I wish it were only 21, but that time has passed. Georgia went 10-2 last year and won every game by at least 17 points. The rumor is that over 50% of the building in Vandy will be full of Georgia supporters. The winner of this game is not in doubt; it is just a matter of how much Georgia wins by. Georgia by 40+ in this one.

Alabama -33.5
This is Alabama coming off a loss. How often can you make that statement? Duke won’t be able to stop or slow down Alabama and it may come down to the Bama second string against the Duke Starters in the fourth quarter. I like that matchup too.

Michigan -34.5
Michigan is getting buzz, as a playoff team and making a statement at home in their first game would be a great start. Middle Tennessee is a middling team from their conference and doesn’t have the lines on either side to keep up with Michigan.

 

So there you have it. Five wagers for the weekend, two games to monitor and my special Pitt pick of the week. I hope that we start the season the right way and we build that bankroll.
College Football Record 0-0
Baseball Record 89-58 +2459
Baseball Parlays 28-73 -895
Golf 4-20 +650

I got an email. It said that the newly launched Fan Duel Sports Book in Pennsylvania had a boosted odd wager I may consider. I clicked it. The Philadelphia Sixers were listed at +1800 to win the title with this boost. Everywhere else in the world they are +900. Wait, what?

I can’t possibly say no to that value. I had to take it. In the fine print they will tell you $50 is the max wager. As someone who has made other bets to win the NBA title already, this was a no-brainer for me. Honestly, I urge you to do the same. Do I think the Sixers will win the title? They certainly can, but no. In this sports betting game, we must take value when it exists. This is fantastic value. If you have a account you should throw even ten dollars on this and hope to collect $180 in June of next year.

Why would Fan Duel do this? Well, they want to get as much of the market share as they can before football season starts. They already have the only working App on IOS, so this will help give them a leg up. If you have not done so, I would suggest giving them a try. No, they are not paying me to say this, but I would take money if they offered. LOL.

The only difficult part of this wager is finding where it is located. It is buried inside the App, but you have to click the “All Sports” tab and then look for daily odds boost. Today’s deal: with the Phillies beat the White Sox in their series this weekend. The Phillies are -300, but with this deal you can have them at +100. I think you know what I am doing. Lock up Phillies at +100 to win the series. Hopefully, Sunday you can collect some extra cash through this deal.

Good luck Everyone!

Baseball Record 76-47 +2259
Baseball Parlays 17-58 -900
Golf 4-19 +700

I am from Pittsburgh. I am a Pirates fan. Listen to me carefully, when I say that they are done. In the next two days the Pirates will be trading players for prospects and rebuilding yet again. It is the smart move since this team is cooked. The Pirates have lost nine straight games and I wish I had jumped on betting against them sooner. The pitching has fallen off the wagon. The hitting is getting pathetic. The team that did not strike out is now all the sudden striking out. The last four games I have wagered against the Pirates and won. I have also stacked against them in daily fantasy. I will be doing both again tonight.

I understand the Pirates are going to win at some point, I just hope that I am not laying that large of a favorite when it happens. Fortunately, that won’t be tonight as the Reds are a small favorite.

 

Wagers for Tonight

Philly/SF OVER 10.5
Two bad pitchers in a warm hitting environment.

Reds -144 (2 Units)
I stated my reasons above for this one.

Reds -1.5 Runs +134
See above.

Reds Team Total Over 5 -110 (2 Units)

NYM/CHW UNDER 9
I like the pitching in this game to keep the already weak offenses down.

LAD/COL Over 14
All the runs tonight!

The Parlay that is going to lose tonight
Phil/SF Over 10.5
Reds ML
LAA ML
NYM/CHW Under 9
LAD/Col Over 14
+1574

Last Parlay
Cin ML
Cin/Pitt Over 9.5 Runs
+220

Good Luck Everyone!

Baseball Record 71-41 +2559
Baseball Parlays 15-55 -1133
Golf 4-19 +700