When you bet a parlay, or an odds boost with multiple components, there is always one part of the wager that is the “hard part.” Yesterday, Ja Morant scoring 25+ was the hard part. I knew he would have a big game. I played him in all my DFS lineups as well. Ja, exploded and crushed. Great, now Trae Young just needs to handle his part. Trae scored four points in the first half. What a weird game. With Jimmy Butler out the Heat scored 38 first-half points. Insane. Trae of course bounced back and finished with 21 points, but man it was right there. This is why gambling can be frustrating and not for everyone. I mentioned yesterday that all you can do is keep putting yourself in good spots and see what happens.

Late last night someone sent me a new Fox Bet boost of Chris Paul to have a double double and the Suns to win at +333. I ran the numbers and it should have paid under +200. I fired it up and tweeted it out. Chris Paul barely scored in the first half. Then Devin Booker was ejected. Oh man, this is perfect for Paul, but not great for the Suns part of the wager. The Suns ended up handling their business, but Paul finished with only eight points. The most difficult thing when betting basketball is a player or team not making shots. There is nothing you can do, but some days teams shoot 18% from the floor. It happens.

Draft Kings had a 25% profit boost yesterday for college basketball and I took it a different way. Despite them advertising a $50 max, mine was much lower, but I used it on a future bet. I thought WVU had a great chance to beat Baylor yesterday and will be a tough out in the tournament. I think a possible two-seed should not be 30/1 to win the title. I took WVU and boosted them to +3750. I know that Baylor and Gonzaga are the two best teams and Michigan is a distant third, but after that, anything can happen. I will take West Virginia as the first future I am adding. I am sure I will consider more. This pains me as a Pitt graduate and fan, but money is money.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

NBA Model Plays
CLE +6.5
UTA -3
DET +6
HOU +10
ATL -3.5
CHI +5.5 (Highest Rated in Model)
CHA -1.5
OKC +5
LAL +3
POR +2

NBA Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
Harden to record a triple-double +230 (DK)
Harden is +180 to record a triple-double on Fan Duel.
Harden’s points prop is set to 29.5.
Harden’s assist prop is set to 11.5.
Harden’s rebound prop is set to 8.5 and the over is slightly juiced.
No matter how you slice it, this is a pretty solid boost. Besides the revenge narrative, the only thing that gives me pause is the blowout potential. I am going to play this and hope the game stays close. I am in.

Curry and Dame each to make 5+ threes +175 (DK)
Curry is -280 to make 5+ threes.
Dame is -130 to make 5+ threes.
This parlayed together pays +140. Apparently, tonight is narrative night for the NBA odds boosts. Curry’s made threes prop is set to 5.5 and over is heavily juiced. Dame’s made threes prop is set to 4.5 and the over is heavily juiced. I believe in this competition narrative. This is their third meeting of the season. In the previous two Dame made six threes in each game. Curry made four threes in one game and eight in the other. I am in.


33% Profit boost on any 3+ leg parlay (DK)
I will be using this on something. I will mention at the bottom.


Harden/Kyrie/Harris to all make 3+ threes +250 (FD)
Harden is -390 to make 3+ threes.
Harris is -240 to make 3+ threes.
Kyrie is -152 to make 3+ threes.
If you parlay them together it pays +205. Again as long as the game remains competitive, this has a great chance of getting there. This is basically a Kyrie bet since the other two get there very often. Tonight is going to be fun. I am in.

Zion/Embiid/LaVine 1 or more dunk +200 (Fox)
Remember Embiid rarely dunks. They must make a ton on Embiid dunk boosts since they have one every time he plays. Pass.

Sixers/Nets/Pelicans to all win +310 (Fox)
The Sixers are small home dog and this should pay +296 or so. I am going to pass on the small dog Sixers being involved here, but they look like they are in a good spot. Pass.

Harden/Kyrie/Wall 25+ points +250 (Fox)
Harden’s points prop is set to 29.5.
Kyrie’s points prop is set to 27.5 and the under is slightly juiced.
Wall’s point prop is set to 24.5 and the over heavily juiced.
If you parlay all three of these to score 25+ on Fan Duel, it pays +264. Pass on this boost.

NCAA Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
Villanova to lead at halftime and win the game +110 (DK)
Nova is a 4.5 points favorite and -196 on the money line. The First half line is -168 in favor of Villanova. If you were to parlay both, it should pay around +140. For that reason alone, I am passing.

USC/PSU/FSU to all win +115 (DK)
This is a boost, slightly as it should pay +106. As always with these boosts, if you liked these teams before, go for it. If you did not before, pass. I will pass.

NBA
I am waiting on some injury information before locking this in.

NCAAB
Nothing at this time.

Let’s Get Weird
Nothing at this time.

Basketball
2020-2021 Season Record
NBA Record 28-28 50%
NCAA Record 9-13 40.9%
Hoops Parlay Record 7-15 -245
Hoops Odds Boosts 26-40 +1615
Hoops Player Props 4-2 +530
NBA Model Highest Rated 33-27 55%
NBA Model 195-210 48.14%

It seems like we are treading water with boosts and bets at this point. Nothing terrible is happening, but it feels like we are close. Maybe if Donovan Mitchell could not shoot 7-21 and still score 20+ point, things would turn around. All you can do when you play daily fantasy, make bets, buy investments or whatever you are doing is put yourself in a good position and hope it works out well. We cannot control everything. For every day where a player just reaches his points prop, there will be days where they just miss. The same goes for golf bets. After having a few runners finish second and hitting a live bet, we finally punched through with Collin Morikawa on Sunday. The important thing is, is the process correct. As long as your process is correct, the results will eventually follow. Some people asked me if I feel like I made a mistake if a boost comes in and I said pass. My answer is always the same, only if I made a mistake on the math. If a boost is +500 and the math says it should be +700, I do not care if it comes in. Over the long run, you cannot out run bad bets where the price is wrong. Sure, you may hit a winner at times, but the math will catch you in the long run. This is a game that never ends. I always stay within my bankroll plan, as you should too. Remember if a bet makes you nervous, scared, or anxious, you are betting too much.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

NBA Model Plays
MEM -1
ATL +3.5 (Tied for Highest Rated in Model)
BOS +4
NYK -1.5
DEN +7.5 (Tied for Highest Rated in Model)
PHO +1.5

NBA Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
Paul George or Jaylen Brown to score first basket +270 (FD)
I will keep avoiding these. This is more of a gamble than it is a well-researched and calculated risk.

3×2 Boost Two or more made threes in first three minutes Clippers/Celtics +110 (FD)
Pass. Until I can find data that shows how many threes a team attempts in this period, so that I can break this down in a meaningful way, it is the same as first basket, just a gamble.

3×2 Boost Two or more made threes in first three minutes Lakers/Suns +110 (FD)
See above.

Booker to score 30+ points and Suns to win +470 (FD)
Booker’s point prop is set to 26.5 and the over is juiced. Booker to go over and the Suns to win pays +213. Booker is +152 to score 30+ points. If you parlay that over and the Suns to win, it pays +290. In this case, is three extra points worth the risk to jump to +470? I am a believer in the Suns tonight. I know that I preach not play some of these boosts unless you like the game. Well, I like this game. In fact, I really like the Suns tonight. I just worry that the pace is slow and Booker does not get there. Pass, but intrigued.  


LeBron to record a triple-double and the Lakers to win +1329 (DK)
LeBron is +500 to record a triple-double on Fan Duel. If you parlay a LeBron triple-double with a Lakers win, it should pay around +1000. LeBron has three triple-doubles this year and one of those games went to overtime. Notice they keep offering LeBron triple-double odds boost and I keep saying stay away. Pass again.

Giannis and Jokic to both record a triple-double +1720 (DK)
This should pay around +1670 for them to both record a triple-double, so it is a boost. This is also a back-to-back for the Nuggets. This game has a high total and yes, both people are capable of getting there. I just cannot recommend something that has such a low likelihood of coming in. I will say Denver is better on back-to-backs than expected, but this is a pass for me.

Kawhi and Tatum 1+ dunk and 1+ Made Three for each +200 (Fox)
Kawhi is averaging two made threes and just under one dunk per game.
Tatum is averaging just under three made threes and a little over a half a dunk per game.  If you add this up it is a pass. Neither player dunks consistently and that is before factoring in how bad the Celtics have been. If Jaylen Brown sits this could end up not being that competitive. Pass.

Clippers/Heat/Spurs all to win +375 (Fox)
If you parlay this on Fan Duel it pays +404. Pass on this “boost.”

Ja and Trae to both score 25+ points +600 (Fox)
Ja’s point prop is set to 19.5 and the over is heavily juiced.
Trae’s point prop is set to 25.5 and the over is slightly juiced.
You can parlay the over on both at +239.
Trae is -154 to score 25+ points.
Ja is +225 to score 25+ points.
If you parlay them together, it should pay +436.
The Memphis game has a total of 235.5 points. Ja has been bad recently, but some of that is because Memphis has been blown out a few times. Ja has only scored 25+ points in four of 22 games. I get it that on the surface this does not seem that fantastic. However, this is an eruption spot for Ja Morant. It is a solid boost in terms of what it should pay and this is a calculated risk. Trae’s number is appropriate and I am willing to bet that Ja plays very well tonight coming off a terrible game in his last outing. I am in.

NCAA Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
25% Profit Boost on one College Game ($50 max bet DK)

Texas/Arkansas/Purdue to all win +210 (DK)
This should pay +183 so it is a slight boost. Man, taking Purdue, as a slight home favorite feels risky. If you like Purdue, you should play this. The other two are decently sized favorites tonight. I did kick around the idea of playing this boost, then using the 25% profit boost to bet the Wisconsin money line. It is just not a wide enough margin to make it worth the risk and turn a profit for sure. Pass for me.

WVU to lead at halftime and Baylor to win the game +770 (DK)
I mean why? This is the most bizarre boost. Baylor is -200 to win this game. This can go badly in so many ways. Pass.

NBA
PHO +1.5
I think they win.

NCAAB
I will be on something and use that boost above. I am just not sure whom yet. I will post it on Twitter later tonight.

Let’s Get Weird
Nothing at this time.

Basketball
2020-2021 Season Record
NBA Record 27-28 49.09%
NCAA Record 9-13 40.9%
Hoops Parlay Record 7-15 -245
Hoops Odds Boosts 26-38 +1815
Hoops Player Props 4-2 +530
NBA Model Highest Rated 31-27 53.44%
NBA Model 190-209 47.61%

Monday mornings are always better when your 45/1 Collin Morikawa comes in. I was set to be disappointed again, as yesterday could have been the second time one of our runners had the lead after round three and lost this season. Instead, Morikawa came through and we cashed some tickets!

After some weak offerings and canceled odds boosts to due late scratches, tonight we have some interesting options!

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

NBA Model Plays
ORL +6
IND +4.5
NOP +7
SAS +5.5
HOU -2.5
CHI +4.5
CHA +6.5 (Highest Rated in model, but is also a road back-to-back.)

NBA Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
Zion to record 30+ points and 10+ Rebounds +385 (FD)
Zion’s points prop is set to 26.5 and the under is juiced.
Zion’s rebound prop is set to 7.5 and the under is juiced.
You can parlay the over on both for +167.
Zion is +174 to score 30+ points.
Zion is +220 to record 10+ rebounds.
If you parlay them, it pays +385. This is not a boost at all. Pass.

Dame to score 35+ points and Portland to win +290 (FD)
Dame’s points prop is set to 31.5 and the over is juiced.
Dame to hit the over and Portland to win pays +131.
Dame is +146 to score 35+ points.
If you parlay them, it plays +186. In this case, three points is worth a nice little boost. This is a road back-to-back for the Hornets. Dame has scored over 35 in 10 out of 33 games. This right in line with where it should be. I think Portland wins a high scoring game here and I am in on this. Fire it up!


LaMelo and Dame to make over 7.5 combined threes +205 (DK)
Dame’s made three props is set to 4.5 and the over is slightly juiced.
Dame to make 5+ threes pays -118 on Fan Duel.
Due to injury concerns, the Hornets do not have any player props listed.
LaMelo has made 2.7 threes per game since February 1^st. This is right on the line here, but if I like the last boost, it would only make sense to like this one. Dame should make 5+ threes here and we may only need 1-2 from LaMelo. This game also has a nice total of 232.5 points. I am in.

Zion over 2.5 Dunks and Pelicans to win +680 (DK)
This is right in line for dunks for Zion, but being a dog to the hottest team in the NBA. Pass.

Sixers/Jazz/Nets to all win +225 (Fox)
This is a tiny boost as it pays +217 on Fan Duel. This feels dangerous playing so many short favorites, including two on the road. Pass.

Luka/Jokic/Mitchell 25+ points each +300 (Fox)
Luka’s point prop is set to 29.5.
Luka is -330 to score 25+ points.
Jokic’s point prop is set to 26.5 and the over is slightly juiced.
Jokic is -188 to score 25+ points.
Mitchell’s point prop is set to 26.5.
Mitchell is -178 to score 25+ points.
If you parlay all three to score 25+ points it pays +212. All three player need to just miss their prop. I am in.

Embiid/Gobert/LaVine 1 + dunks each +200
Embiid is always in doubt with dunk props. Pass here.

NCAA Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
Oklahoma/STL/SYR all to win +400 (DK)
OK -1.5 (-124)
STL -10.5 (-560)
SYR +1.5 (+100)
This is a slight boost as this parlay pays +326 on Fan Duel. I am not a fan as always of tiny favorites or dogs unless you already liked them. Pass for me.

NBA
CHA +6.5
The Hornets are 4-3 on back-to-backs and while I do think Portland wins, this will be close and competitive. I also trust the model. I wonder if anyone sits/returns for Charlotte.

NCAAB
Richmond -14.5
St. Joe’s is 3-14 and has been awful on the road this year.

Let’s Get Weird
Nothing at this time.

Basketball
2020-2021 Season Record
NBA Record 27-27 50%
NCAA Record 9-12 42.85%
Hoops Parlay Record 7-15 -245
Hoops Odds Boosts 25-36 +1910
Hoops Player Props 4-2 +530
NBA Model Highest Rated 31-27 53.44%
NBA Model 189-204 48.09%

Come on Collin Morikawa!!!!

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

NBA Model Plays
LAC +2
WAS +6.5
NYK +1
ATL +1 (Highest Rated in Model)
HOU +4
LAL -3
MIN +10.5
CHA +2.5

NBA Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
Curry and Lebron to make 8+ Threes +280 (FD)
This is a slight boost, but Lebron is the one to not get there. The Lakers play so slow, I am going to pass.

Giannis and Kawhi to score 30+ points +290 (FD)
Giannis’s points prop is set to 30.5 and the over is juiced.
Kawhi’s points prop is set to 27.5 and the over is juiced.
If you parlay them to both go over it pays +230.
If you parlay them to both score 30+ it pays +245.
This is a decent sized boost. However, Kawhi has only score 30+ in 10 out of a possible 28 games. I need this boost to be well over +300 to be in. Pass.

Randle first basket +600 (FD)
Nope, never.

Kawhi to record 40+ points/rebounds/assists +105 (DK)
This is set to 39.5 on Fan Duel and the over is juiced at -115. This is a nice sized boost considering the margins. As long as this is a competitive game, he should get there. I am in.

Lebron to record a triple double and Lakers win +610 (DK)
Lebron is +270 to record a triple double and the Lakers are slight favorites. This should pay around +510, so it is a decent boost. Lebron has three triple doubles this entire season. Pass.

Kawhi/Giannis/Lebron 1+ dunks each +100 (Fox)
Pass, I need a rest from dunk props.

Curry and Booker to score 30+ points +450 (Fox)
Curry’s points prop is set to 29.5 and the under is juiced.
Curry to score 30+ points is -106.
Booker’s points prop is set to 26.5 and the under is juiced.
Booker to score 30+ points is +172.
If you parlay them to both score 30+, it pays +434 on Fan Duel. I mean this is a boost, but the blowout potential for the Suns is very real. Pass.

Knicks/Heat/Rockets to all win +550 (Fox)
This would pay +649 on Fan Duel if you parlayed it, so pass on this boost.

NCAA Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
20% Profit boost on any 4+ leg parlay

NBA
ATL +1
I am riding the model.

NCAAB
Nothing at this time.

Let’s Get Weird
Nothing at this time.

Basketball
2020-2021 Season Record
NBA Record 27-26 %
NCAA Record 9-12 42.85%
Hoops Parlay Record 7-15 -245
Hoops Odds Boosts 25-35 +2010
Hoops Player Props 4-2 +530
NBA Model Highest Rated 31-26 %
NBA Model 185-200 %

My son had little league evaluations and that has taken up some of the day. Well, that and being in line for my NBA Top Shot pack! It was nice to hit the Fox Bet odds boost last night and I had bet the one today that involved Kyrie. Now, he is out and so is that boost. I am just watching PGA and hoping this continues….

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

NBA Model Plays
CLE +11
MIN +4.5
SAS +3
UTA -9.5
IND +1.5
DEN -6.5
BRK +1.5 (Highest Rated in Model despite no KD or Kyrie)

NBA Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
Harden to record a triple double +260 (FD)
Fox Bet has the same boost for +240.
Harden is +275 on Draft Kings to record a triple double. Pass on this boost.


Zion to score 35+ +410 (FD)
Zion’s point prop is set to 26.5 and the over is juiced. Zion is +370 to score 35+ on Fan Duel. Zion has two games with 35+ points this season. Pass.

DK has no hoops boosts since the Nets game has been altered due to Kyrie being out.

Fox Bet had a nice 25+ boost I had bet earlier that involved Kyrie, but that is off and will be refunded.

Embiid and Zion 1+ dunks each +100 (Fox)
Pass on Embiid dunk props that do not pay +200 or more.

Harden and Luka 30+ points +225 (Fox)
Luka’s point prop it set to 29.5 and the over is juiced.
Harden’s point prop is set to 29.5.
If you parlay them to both go over it pays, +239.
Pass on this boost then.

Sixers/Pelicans/Nets +300
This pays +309 on Fan Duel. Pass.

NCAA Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
20% Profit boost on any 4+ leg parlay

NBA
NOP -3
Rested and get a depleted Spurs team.

NCAAB
Nothing at this time.

Let’s Get Weird
Nothing at this time.

Basketball
2020-2021 Season Record
NBA Record 27-25 51.92%
NCAA Record 9-12 42.85%
Hoops Parlay Record 7-15 -245
Hoops Odds Boosts 25-35 +2010
Hoops Player Props 4-2 +530
NBA Model Highest Rated 31-25 55.35%
NBA Model 181-197 47.88%

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

NBA Model Plays
IND +2.5
HOU +8.5 (Highest Rated in the Model)
DET +2
CHI +6
MEM +6.5
UTA -7
OKC +5.5
POR +5
CHA +6

NBA Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
Tatum and Brown to each make 3+ threes +325 (FD)
Tatum is -122 to make 3+ threes.
Brown is +132 to make 3+ threes.
If you parlay them together it pays +295.
Tatum has made 3+ threes in 18 out of 27 games.
Brown has made 3+ three in 15 out of 30 games.
The Celtics have been in a tailspin and both player’s made threes prop is set to 2.5. Brown has the under juiced up and Tatum has the over juiced. If you parlay them together, it pays +306. This is going to be a competitive game and both players will play a ton of minutes. This is fine to play. I am in.

Lillard and LeBron to each score 30+ points +260 (FD)
Lillard’s point prop is set to 30.5 and the over is juiced.
LeBron’s point prop is set to 28.5 and the under is juiced. You can parlay these two to go over for +240. You can parlay both LeBron and Lillard to score 30+ for +235 on Fan Duel. LeBron has really struggled to score 30+ points since January 1 and this is not a great number considering his point prop. This is a pass.


Lebron to lead game in scoring and Lakers to win +250 (DK)
This is an easy pass. The Lakers have been struggling and Lillard is slated to score more than Lebron. Pass.

Curry and LaMelo to combine for over 8.5 made threes +150 (DK)
LaMelo’s made threes prop is set to 2.5 and the under is heavily juiced.
Curry’s made threes prop is set to 5.5 and the over is juiced. If you parlay Curry and LaMelo to go over this number, it pays +318. I get that Curry could go over by himself, but I would rather bet the over on both of these parlayed than this boost. Pass.


Lebron/Curry/Lillard to score 25+ points each +200 (Fox)
Lillard’s point prop is set to 30.5 and the over is juiced.
LeBron’s point prop is set to 28.5 and the under is juiced.
Curry’s point prop is set to 29.5 and the over is slightly juiced.
Lillard to score 25+ is -500.
Lebron to score 25+ is -270.
Curry to score 25+ is -330.
If you parlay these together is pays +114. This is a fantastic boost and I am in.


Celtics/Clippers/Jazz to all win +250 (Fox)
This should pay around +216. Therefore, it is not bad at all. I just cannot get behind the Celtics at this time. Pass.

Tatum/LaVine/LeBron all to make a dunk and a three +400 (Fox)
Them all making a three is not a concern.
Tatum has 16 dunks in 27 games.
LeBron has 40 dunks in 33 games.
LaVine has 29 dunks in 31 games.
Ehh, this is right on the border, but I am going to pass.

NCAA Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
20% Profit boost on any 4+ leg parlay

NBA
HOU +8.5
I back the top play in the model!

NCAAB
Nothing at this time.

Let’s Get Weird
Nothing at this time.

Basketball
2020-2021 Season Record
NBA Record 27-24 %
NCAA Record 9-12 42.85%
Hoops Parlay Record 7-15 -245
Hoops Odds Boosts 24-34 +1910
Hoops Player Props 4-2 +530
NBA Model Highest Rated 31-24 %
NBA Model 180-189 %

We are just waiting for packs perpetually from NBA Top Shot. Sigh. Delays, to stop the bots. While we wait a little, bit longer, a nice-sized NBA slate. A few teams are on back-to-backs and there are actually a few odds boosts I am recommending tonight.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!


NBA Model Plays
DAL +4.5
ORL +9
NYK -1.5
MEM +8.5
WAS +7.5
NOP +9 (Highest Rated in Model)

NBA Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
Fan Duel just has two different 3×2 boosts. As you may know, this is a pass from me. If someone can show me some sort of data on how many threes every team attempts in the first three minutes of the game, I would be happy to break it down.

Luka and Embiid to each score 30+ points +230 (DK)
Luka’s point prop is set to 30.5 and the under is juiced.
Embiid’s point prop is set to 31.5 and the under is juiced.
Luka to score 30+ is -154.
Embiid to score 30+ is -160.
If you parlay them, it pays +161 on Fan Duel. This is a really solid boost with both guys needing to slightly miss their prop to pay off the boost. I am in.


Zion and Giannis to combine for over 4.5 Dunks +140 (DK)
Zion has 58 dunks in 30 games. Zion averages 1.93 dunks a game.
Giannis has 86 dunks in 31 games. Giannis averages 2.77 dunks a game.
Together they average 4.7 dunks per game. This actually works considering it pays plus money. I am in.

Embiid and Giannis one of more dunks each +100 (Fox Bet)
We know that Embiid dunks on average every other game. I am just going to avoid all Embiid dunk props unless they are paying +200 or more at this point. Pass.

Sixers/Nets/Nuggets all to win +150 (Fox Bet)
This is barely a boost at +146 on Fan Duel. However, I like it. I am in. If you opt in to the Thursday night NBA special in your challenges on Fox Bet, you also get a $10 free live bet for betting $20 or more on NBA. You can bet this boost and get a free $10 to have fun with.

Luka and Beal to score 31 or more each +275 (Fox Bet)
Luka’s point prop is set to 30.5 and the under is juiced.
Luka to score 30+ is -154.
Beal’s point prop is set to 30.5 and the over is juiced.
If you parlay Beal to score over 30.5 and Luka to score 30+ is pays +205.
While the Wizards playing in Denver is not great, this boost is worth playing at this price. I am in.

NCAA Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
Michigan to win the Over 156.5 points to be scored +190 (DK)
The total is set to 154, so this is an easy pass.

SDSU/COL/OSU to all win +270 (DK)
This should pay +238, but two of the games feature smaller spread and one is on the road. Pass.

NBA
Sixers -4.5
I really like them tonight coming off some rest.

NOP +9
I know this is a back-to-back for the Pelicans and they are inconsistent, but the Bucks have been all over the place.

NCAAB
Nothing at this time.

Let’s Get Weird
Just that parlay boost above.

Basketball
2020-2021 Season Record
NBA Record 25-24 51.02%
NCAA Record 9-12 42.85%
Hoops Parlay Record 7-15 -245
Hoops Odds Boosts 23-31 +2070
Hoops Player Props 4-2 +530
NBA Model Highest Rated 30-24 55.55%
NBA Model 176-187 48.48%

I am all about the sites having PGA odds boosts every week! If they do, I will continue to break them down as well. PGA betting is something I started a few years back and really enjoy. All you need is to hit one winner to have a great year, depending upon the price. Last year, obviously, I picked more than a few winners. I am going to list the other bets I continue to make of top 20’s, top 10’s, etc. I had only been listing my outrights, but I will now list everything.

PGA
Last year, I had plenty of success just buying top end golfers when their prices dipped. When I had DJ that was the highest number, he had been to win an event in a while. I did the same thing with Bryson at the U.S. Open. Am I a golf expert? Of course not. Nevertheless, I do read everything on Numberball.com. Does my opinion and wagers lineup with whom they like every week? No, in fact it occasionally does, but not that often.

 I have this problem where I cannot stop betting on Bryson. He is just sitting there at 20/1 taunting me, with this number. It has been extremely rare to see someone with Bryson’s ability being listed any higher than around 12/1 or 14/1 in any field. This week we are going to take some shots on some higher numbers. It is a no-cut event, where Justin Thomas always seems to win. I was all about Justin Thomas earlier in the week, but have backed off. JT has had some family things happen and I thought his number would be higher since he played so badly last week.

PGA Wagers
Will Zalatoris 70/1 (DK)
Will Zalatoris Top 10 +550 (DK)
Collin Morikawa 45/1 (DK)
Bryson 20/1 (DK – As a friend said, “Death, taxes, and you betting Bryson.”)

PGA Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
DJ to win or tie his first round matchup with Brooks and Berger +130 (FD)
DJ is listed at +105 to win his group today, so this is a boost. Those of you that are new to golf betting need to realize that yes, all three players in this group are a dog. This is a decent boost considering you get the betting favorite of the entire tournament. I am in.

John Rahm to win by 2 or more shots +1600 (Fox Bet)
What is this? Not only does Rahm have to win, he has to win by two shots? Pass.

All to finish top ten Xander/DJ/Rory +850 (Fox Bet)
DJ is -150 to top ten.
Xander is +138 to top ten.
Rory is +180 to top ten.
Yeah, so this should pay around +1010 for them all to make the top ten at their current numbers. Pass.

Cam Smith to be top Australian +400 (Fox Bet)
Adam Scott and Cam Smith are listed as co-favorites to be top Australian at +300. This is a boost. Smith is actually 60/1 to win while Scott is 66/1 to win. Add this up and it is a solid boost. You get a better number on the person who is a slight favorite, or in this case has better winning odds. I am in.


Picks This Season (Winners in Bold)
2/18
Bryson 18/1 FD
Bryson 20/1 DK Boost
Kokrak 110/1 FD
Kokrak Top 20 +360


2/11
Kevin Streelman 37/1 Finished 13th
Adam Long 125/1
Streelman top 10 +280 Finished 13
Long top 10 +800
Berger (Live Sunday Morning) +550

2/4
Munoz 125/1
Xander 11/1 –Finished second and blew a lead on the last day, UGH.

1/28
Xander 13/1 –Finished tied for second. Ugh.
Palmer 65/1 – Finished tied for second. Ugh.
Gooch 90/1 
Huh 130/1

1/21
Henley 35/1
Brendan Steele 90/1

1/14
Abraham Ancer 30/1

PGA Winners I Bet Last Season 
6/28 Dustin Johnson 28-1 Travelers (Live bet him at 60/1 too)
8/2 Justin Thomas 10-1 WGC ST Jude (I had JT on 7/12 too and he lost in a playoff)
8/9 Morikawa 30-1 PGA Championship
8/23 Dustin Johnson 20-1 Northern Trust
9/20 Bryson DeChambeau 33-1 U.S. Open
10/25 Patrick Cantlay 30/1 ZoZo Championship

PGA Odds Boost Record
0-1 -100

In what is a bigger slate I continue to be amazed the major sites do not offer more in terms of odds boosts. Nevertheless, I see some PGA boosts being listed for tomorrow. I will have an article up and take a look at them. Sadly, I did not get a NBA Top Shots pack last night. I was asleep and did eventually wake up and join the drop. With only 5,000 packs, I was 47,000 in line. Oh well. Either way, back on the NBA grind tonight.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!


NBA Model Plays
GSW +2.5
CLE +4
ATL +2.5
TOR +2.5 (Tied for Highest Rated In Model)
SAS -1
CHI -4
DET +9.5 (Tied for Highest Rated in Model)
CHA +10
LAL +9

NBA Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
Lebron to record a triple double +380 (FD)
Lebron to record a triple double +350 (Fox Bet)
The two above are “boosts.” Over on Draft Kings you can bet Lebron to record a triple double for +425. Pass on these boosts.


Curry or Brogdon first basket +250 (FD)
Nope, never.


Mitchell to score 30+ points and make 3+ threes +310 (FD)
Mitchell’s point prop is set to 24.5 points.
Mitchell’s three prop is set to 2.5 and the over is juiced.
You can parlay Mitchell to hit the over on both these and it pays +140.
Mitchell is +240 to score 30+ points.
A parlay to score 30+ points and make over 2.5 threes pays +269, on Fan Duel. Yeah, you can pass on this boost on Fan Duel, when you can get a better number at the same book. Pass.


NBA 3+ team parlay 33% profit boost (DK)
I am going to use this! I will explain how below!

Lebron or Mitchell to score first basket +230 (DK)
Nope, never.

Curry to make 7+ threes and Warriors to win +330 (DK)
Curry to make 6+ threes and Warriors to win +275 (Fox Bet)
The Warriors are 2.5 point dogs. Curry’s made threes prop is set to 5.5 and the under is juiced.
If you bet Curry to make over 5.5 threes and the Warriors to win it pays +261. That means the Fox Bet boost is fine to play since it is a small boost. For one extra made three you can get all the way to +330 on Draft Kings. Curry has made 7+ threes in eight of 31 games. Considering the frequency with which Curry can make this many threes, it seems to reason this is a solid boost. However, this is a road back-to-back for the Warriors. Warriors are 2-2 on back-to-backs this season, but the Pacers are rested and this is a spot to avoid. Pass.


Warriors/Pelicans/Suns to all win +200 (Fox Bet)
If you parlay these on Fan Duel they pay +218. Pass on this boost.

Zion/LaVine/Edwards 1 or more dunks each +200 (Fox Bet)
I was so out on these dunk props, but then won a bunch in a row.
Zion has 58 dunks in 29 games.
LaVine has 28 dunks in 30 games.
Edwards has 18 dunks in 32 games and stole Yuta’s soul with a dunk last week.
This is on the borderline based upon the numbers above. The price is about what it should be, but I am going to pass.


Sabonis to record a triple double +900 (Fox Bet)
Sabonis is +700 on Fan Duel.
Sabonis is +800 on Draft Kings.
Sabonis point prop is set to 23.5 and the under is juiced.
Sabonis rebound prop is set to 12.5 and the over is heavily juiced.
Sabonis assist prop is set to 5.5 and the over is heavily juiced.
If you parlay Sabonis to have 10+ asissts/10+rebounds/15+ points it pays +651.
Sabonis has three triple doubles this season and has just missed several times. This is a good number considering all the factors. If the Warriors stay competitive on the back-to-back Sabonis will do well. I am in.

NCAA Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
These seem to always have one team lose.
Alabama/FSU to win +175 (DK)
FSU is -11.5 on the road tonight.
Alabama is two-point dog on the road tonight. If you parlay them together, it pays +140. I am not playing a 2-point road dog, unless I really like them. Pass.


Temple/Tenn/Clem to all win +550 (DK)
Clemson is -2.5 on the road. Temple is a four-point road dog. What is this boost? Pass.

NBA
Bulls -4
I love them tonight against Minnesota.

NCAAB
Nothing at this time.

Let’s Get Weird
Pelicans/Jazz/Bulls Money Line Parlay +144 (Boosted on DK to +191)
Yes, betting against Lebron can be scary, but I like this.  

Basketball
2020-2021 Season Record
NBA Record 24-24 50%
NCAA Record 9-12 42.85%
Hoops Parlay Record 6-15 -436
Hoops Odds Boosts 23-30 +2170
Hoops Player Props 4-2 +530
NBA Model Highest Rated 30-22 57.69%
NBA Model 171-183 48.30%

I find it a little bizarre that with so many NBA games we got such a weak odds boost offering today. I suppose they had to avoid the Kings/Nets game since the total is insane and neither team has the ability to stop anyone.

I was very lucky and got an NBA Top Shot pack last night. When the line was randomized, I found myself at 3805. On Saturday when they did the same, I was 6311. I missed a pack by about 60 people that night. Last night I pulled an Ibaka, Theis and Anthony Davis. I sold the first two for $35 and $30 and have the AD on the market now for somewhere in the high $300’s. Not bad for a $9 pack. I have been slowly building up information on what has been happening with NBA Top Shot and what I have been doing with it. If you listened back on January 14 when I said buy packs, you are up a bunch. A more detailed article and podcast are coming. The NBA Top Shot world just moves so quickly.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

NBA Model Plays
CLE +7.5
DET +3.5 (Highest Rated in Model)
NYK +3
BOS -2
BRK -6
TOR +1.5
MIL -11
DEN -6
WAS +12

NBA Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
Tatum and Brown to score 25+ points +270 (FD)
Tatum’s point prop is set to 24.5 and the over is juiced. Brown’s point prop is set to 23.5 and the under is juiced. If you parlay them to both go over it pays +249.
If you parlay them to both score 30+, it pays +267. While I do like this combination, in this space we have to decide if a boost is worth it. In this case it barely is. This boost is paying you an extra $3 for every hundred wagered. If you factor in that the boost has a $50 limit, you are obviously better off playing them parlayed together. Pass on the boost.

Lillard to score 40+ Points +480 (FD)
This is a road back-to-back in Denver. Also known as the toughest back-to-back in the NBA. Pass. Just for the sake of an argument. Lillard is +400 to score 40+ points and his point prop is set to 31.5, so this is a boost. However, this is an awful spot. Pass.

Fan Duel also has two of those 3×2 boosts. Pass.

Lillard to score 30+ Points and make 5+ threes +190 (DK)
See above. In addition, this should pay around +195 parlayed together. Pass.

Luka and Tatum to combine for 65+ points +240 (DK)
Tatum’s point prop is set to 24.5 and the over is juiced. Luka’s point prop is not yet listed, but I will be kind and say it is set to 30.5 at -110. That is probably a little high anyway. If you parlay Luka over that number with Tatum’s point prop, it should pay +253. That is also a number that is 10 points short of what you need for this boost. If we try to parlay Tatum to score 30+ with someone like Dame to score 35+ it should pay around +738. Not a 100% fair comparison, but not that far off either. This boost is way off and should be avoided.

Giannis and Embiid 1 or more dunks each +100 (Fox Bet)
Giannis is a lock for this. Embiid dunks roughly every other game, as we know from looking at data. Embiid did not dunk in the last Sixer game. I am in.

Nets/Sixers/Mavs all to win +450 (Fox Bet)
This should pay around +412 and I like the Sixers and Nets to win tonight. However, this is a back-to-back for the Mavs and a rested Boston team comes to town. I like Boston tonight so I will be passing.

NCAA Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
WVU/OK/Nova all to win -110 (DK)
WVU -7.5 (-320)
OK -10.5 (-560)
Nova -11 (-620)
This parlayed together should pay around -126. I am in.

25% Profit boost on any one college game (DK)

NBA
DET +3.5
I am in in following the model’s top rated play.

PHI -1.5
They are not losing two in a row to the Raptors. They shot awfully the last game.

NCAAB
Nothing at this time.

Let’s Get Weird
Nothing at this time.

Basketball
2020-2021 Season Record
NBA Record 22-24 47.82%
NCAA Record 9-12 42.85%
Hoops Parlay Record 6-14 -336
Hoops Odds Boosts 23-29 +2270
Hoops Player Props 4-2 +530
NBA Model Highest Rated 29-22 56.86%
NBA Model 167-178 48.40%