When you bet a parlay, or an odds boost with multiple components, there is always one part of the wager that is the “hard part.” Yesterday, Ja Morant scoring 25+ was the hard part. I knew he would have a big game. I played him in all my DFS lineups as well. Ja, exploded and crushed. Great, now Trae Young just needs to handle his part. Trae scored four points in the first half. What a weird game. With Jimmy Butler out the Heat scored 38 first-half points. Insane. Trae of course bounced back and finished with 21 points, but man it was right there. This is why gambling can be frustrating and not for everyone. I mentioned yesterday that all you can do is keep putting yourself in good spots and see what happens.
Late last night someone sent me a new Fox Bet boost of Chris Paul to have a double double and the Suns to win at +333. I ran the numbers and it should have paid under +200. I fired it up and tweeted it out. Chris Paul barely scored in the first half. Then Devin Booker was ejected. Oh man, this is perfect for Paul, but not great for the Suns part of the wager. The Suns ended up handling their business, but Paul finished with only eight points. The most difficult thing when betting basketball is a player or team not making shots. There is nothing you can do, but some days teams shoot 18% from the floor. It happens.
Draft Kings had a 25% profit boost yesterday for college basketball and I took it a different way. Despite them advertising a $50 max, mine was much lower, but I used it on a future bet. I thought WVU had a great chance to beat Baylor yesterday and will be a tough out in the tournament. I think a possible two-seed should not be 30/1 to win the title. I took WVU and boosted them to +3750. I know that Baylor and Gonzaga are the two best teams and Michigan is a distant third, but after that, anything can happen. I will take West Virginia as the first future I am adding. I am sure I will consider more. This pains me as a Pitt graduate and fan, but money is money.
Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!
NBA Model Plays
CLE +6.5
UTA -3
DET +6
HOU +10
ATL -3.5
CHI +5.5 (Highest Rated in Model)
CHA -1.5
OKC +5
LAL +3
POR +2
NBA Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
Harden to record a triple-double +230 (DK)
Harden is +180 to record a triple-double on Fan Duel.
Harden’s points prop is set to 29.5.
Harden’s assist prop is set to 11.5.
Harden’s rebound prop is set to 8.5 and the over is slightly juiced.
No matter how you slice it, this is a pretty solid boost. Besides the revenge narrative, the only thing that gives me pause is the blowout potential. I am going to play this and hope the game stays close. I am in.
Curry and Dame each to make 5+ threes +175 (DK)
Curry is -280 to make 5+ threes.
Dame is -130 to make 5+ threes.
This parlayed together pays +140. Apparently, tonight is narrative night for the NBA odds boosts. Curry’s made threes prop is set to 5.5 and over is heavily juiced. Dame’s made threes prop is set to 4.5 and the over is heavily juiced. I believe in this competition narrative. This is their third meeting of the season. In the previous two Dame made six threes in each game. Curry made four threes in one game and eight in the other. I am in.
33% Profit boost on any 3+ leg parlay (DK)
I will be using this on something. I will mention at the bottom.
Harden/Kyrie/Harris to all make 3+ threes +250 (FD)
Harden is -390 to make 3+ threes.
Harris is -240 to make 3+ threes.
Kyrie is -152 to make 3+ threes.
If you parlay them together it pays +205. Again as long as the game remains competitive, this has a great chance of getting there. This is basically a Kyrie bet since the other two get there very often. Tonight is going to be fun. I am in.
Zion/Embiid/LaVine 1 or more dunk +200 (Fox)
Remember Embiid rarely dunks. They must make a ton on Embiid dunk boosts since they have one every time he plays. Pass.
Sixers/Nets/Pelicans to all win +310 (Fox)
The Sixers are small home dog and this should pay +296 or so. I am going to pass on the small dog Sixers being involved here, but they look like they are in a good spot. Pass.
Harden/Kyrie/Wall 25+ points +250 (Fox)
Harden’s points prop is set to 29.5.
Kyrie’s points prop is set to 27.5 and the under is slightly juiced.
Wall’s point prop is set to 24.5 and the over heavily juiced.
If you parlay all three of these to score 25+ on Fan Duel, it pays +264. Pass on this boost.
NCAA Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
Villanova to lead at halftime and win the game +110 (DK)
Nova is a 4.5 points favorite and -196 on the money line. The First half line is -168 in favor of Villanova. If you were to parlay both, it should pay around +140. For that reason alone, I am passing.
USC/PSU/FSU to all win +115 (DK)
This is a boost, slightly as it should pay +106. As always with these boosts, if you liked these teams before, go for it. If you did not before, pass. I will pass.
NBA
I am waiting on some injury information before locking this in.
NCAAB
Nothing at this time.
Let’s Get Weird
Nothing at this time.
Basketball
2020-2021 Season Record
NBA Record 28-28 50%
NCAA Record 9-13 40.9%
Hoops Parlay Record 7-15 -245
Hoops Odds Boosts 26-40 +1615
Hoops Player Props 4-2 +530
NBA Model Highest Rated 33-27 55%
NBA Model 195-210 48.14%
Win The Weekends 