What a disappointing week. I got some things right and some things very wrong.  In the end the most important thing to me was getting to go to the Steeler game with my Dad. We have been attending games for thirty years together now. I started when I was six watching Bubby Brister lead the Steelers offense. An FBI agent used to sit in front of us and his girlfriend swore more than anyone I had ever heard in my life. I remember my parents negotiating if I could attend Monday night games since they used to start at 9 P.M. As a parent now, this seems insane for a kid to attend a game that late and then go to school while in elementary school. I felt like I was the luckiest kid in the world. It was awesome to get to experience that and spend time with my father. The last thirty years of games is something I will always remember and hold in my heart for as long as I live. I can’t wait to expand the tradition and include my children as well.

This week was a disaster on Draft Kings. I had several good pieces, but never had them together in the same lineup. I mentioned on Sunday how I was playing Antonio Brown over everyone, but I should have played Gurley. I was correct to fade Kamara and still think paying $9K for 19 touches is insane. I did get the running backs correct with Coleman, Conner and Gordon, but I could not overcome AB underperforming. If you told me Ben would throw for over 450 yards I would have rostered AB in 100% of lineups. AB finished with an insane 17 targets and only put up a 9/67/0 stat line. In my Ben/AB stacks I tried to sneak in Vance Mcdonald at TE. My thought process was correct. I just had the wrong Steelers WR and TE. JuJu finished with 13/121/1 and Jesse James went 5/138/1. After a bad week it’s important to remember process over results. I won an underwhelming 18% of my cash games and cashed in zero of my milly maker lineups.

On Fan Duel I did cash two of my five lineups in the milly maker, but nothing of any note. Not surprisingly the two lineups that did well were Ben and Mahomes stacks. I also won 21% of my cash games somehow despite Case Keenum.  This is why you play head to head games. My team was awful and it was better than other teams out there.

My two wagers of the Steelers and Texans both lost. My crazy teaser lost only because of the Steelers. Not good times.

The computer algorithm did average though.

Platinum selections went 1-2 (Seattle +3.5 tonight)
Premium Selections went 1-2
Regular selections went 5-4
Overall week two record 7-8

Will be back later this week!

I am in Pittsburgh headed to the Steeler game with my dad. This is our 30^th year of going to Steeler games together. I started going to games when I was six at Three Rivers Stadium. It almost feels surreal to say we have been doing this for thirty years, but I wouldn’t trade that time for anything.

Computer selections were posted a few days ago, but it’s time for my wagers. Cincinnati got us off to a nice 1-0 for the weekend and it’s time to keep going! I really want to take the Giants today, but I couldn’t pull the trigger. The Eagles giving only 3.5 in Tampa feels like the “it’s too good to be true” line of the day. RUN. STAY AWAY.

Houston -3.5
Take the minus three now before it goes up. Titans are missing top three, THREE, offensive tackles. The QB situation is a mess and this feels like a great rebound spot for Watson.

Pittsburgh -5
The public is all over the Chiefs. The Steelers always play better at home and own the Chiefs. Is there a Slap Shot Gif of the goalie saying “OWNS?” Does anyone get that reference?

My Record 2-0-1 100%

Crazy Teaser Bet of the Week
7 Point 6 Team Teaser
LAC -1.5
HOU +3.5
PITT +3
NO -3
LAR -6.5
NYG +10
This pays +475!!!

Crazy Teaser Record 0-1 (-100)

 

Week Two DFS Stacks
Disclaimer***
When you are stacking you must ALWAYS play a QB with a WR from their team and run it back with a player from the opposing team. All the data says that is the optimal way to play, even if it doesn’t work every week. The goal here is to give ourselves the best opportunity for a big GPP score. I am not playing to cash, I am playing with win GPP’s.

Draft Kings
Jimmy G/Pettis/Kittle/Golladay
Ben/AB/Vance/Hill
Stafford/Golladay/Pettis/Kittle
Mahomes/Hill/AB
Keenum (No Stack)- This is my cash game QB and lineup.

The chalk and optimal plays seems very easy at RB on DK. Play Coleman, Conner and Gordon. I have decided to play Antonio Brown in every lineup as opposed to Gurley/Kamara/Gordon. I think AB ends the weekend as the top scorer of the weekend. It’s a risk and a little less safe than Gurley for sure, but it is what I believe will happen. I hope AB is much less owned than one of those big RB’s. At this moment I have ZERO shares of Kamara. This is not smart and feels completely wrong, but I like AB more. I think there is a scenario where the Saints get up and other RB’s get run and Kamara sits out. I hope at least.

Fan Duel
Jimmy G/Pettis/Kittle/Tate
Mahomes/Hill/AB
Stafford/Tate/Pettis/Kittle
Ben/AB/Hill
Keenum (No Stack)- This is my cash game QB and lineup.

Fan Duel makes it much easier to jam in Coleman, Conner, Gurley along with AB. Thanks to the value of Pettis, I can make an insane looking cash lineup. (Conner, Coleman, Gurley, AB and Julio) I am still working on what defenses I want, but I am paying down in any and all formats.

Pending any news this is my plan. It could change if anything else comes out between now and lock.

Week 2 is upon us! I have already narrowed my list down a great deal at this point. I texted some friends and said I think my player pool is unusually small for mid-week. I think some of it has to do with the lack of value and tighter pricing this week. Week 1 always provides tremendous value due to the player pricing being out for a month before the games play. This week there is some value, but not enough.

Who did I miss last week? Kenny Stills. I had him on my original list and crossed him out. I thought Miami would just be trash. Maybe, they aren’t as bad as I thought. I remain skeptical of the Dolphins and their passing game. If Devante Parker is back does Stills role change?  AS always please read Evan Silva’s weekly game reports.

This week there are a few people who are still too cheap for their current role. James Conner and Greg Kittle are the two best examples. They are both still under priced for their expected roles on Sunday.  Devonte Freeman was just ruled out for Sunday, so expect a lot of Tevin Coleman love to come. (Just a reminder that cash games are all head-to-heads, 50/50’s and double ups. Tourney’s or GPP’s are events with larger prize pools and different payouts the higher you score. I normally make one cash lineup and several GPP lineups every week)

Current Player Pool

QB
Case Keenum – Still too cheap and against a bad defense.
Ben Roethlisberger –KC defense is bad and Ben will bounce back at home.
Pat Mahomes – My god is he good. ALL THE POINTS IN PITTSBURGH.
Jimmy G –Good matchup after a bad one at home. Favorite secret stack.
Matt Stafford – NO ONE IS PLAYING HIM AFTER MONDAY.

RB
Rex Burkhead – Pats down to two healthy RB’s.
Melvin Gordon – He is going to get close to 30 touches and every Baltimore RB scored against Buffalo.
Todd Gurley – Touches are solid and in a great spot.
Christian McCaffrey – His market share goes up without Olsen
James White – Pats lost another RB on Sunday.
Alvin Kamara – Great spot, but price is very high.
James Connor – 100% exposure again incoming.
TJ Yeldon – If Fournette is out he is in play.
Tevin Coleman – Welp, the RB position just got a lot easier.

WR
Dede Westbrook – so cheap and again Bortles has to throw to someone.
Emmanuel Sanders – Until his price is much higher, I’m in.
Antonio Brown – CASH GAME LOCK.
Keenan Allen – Buffalo.
Tyrell the Gazelle Williams – Buffalo.
TY Hilton –Gonna have to throw.
Michael Thomas –Browns got burned in the rain by AB.
Chris Godwin— If DJax is out, I’m playing him.
Marques Goodwin- If he’s playing, I love him.
Pierre Garcon – One SF WR is going to be on my team.
TYFREAK – Have you seen him play?
Golden Tate – Detroit offense has to be better. Still got double digit targets.
Kenny Golladay – Sneaky shootout game in San Fran.
Devin Funchess – Target share goes up without Olsen.
Dante Pettis- If Goodwin is out, cheap option.
Qunicy Enunwa- Ten targets on Darnolds 21 pass attempts.

Tight End
Greg Kittle – Should be 1k more.
Jack Doyle – Still too cheap.
Vance McDonald –If healthy. (Might never be)
Jonnu Smith – Very cheap and Gronk did well last week against them.

This is where I am currently. I’ll post my stacks on Sunday to give a clear picture of who I am really backing. Did I miss anyone?

Week two computer algorithm selections are here!!! This picks are against the spread, but could be useful in a picks league or a survivor contest as well. Picks will be categorized into three sections: Regular, premium and platinum. Platinum selections are the top level and premiums are right behind them.

Platinum Selections
CAR +6
PHIL -3.5
DET +6
SEA +3.5

Premium Selections
BALT PK
NO -8.5
OAK +6

Regular Selections
BUFF +7
MINN -7
TENN PK
MIA +2.5
PITT -4
INDY +6
ARZ +12.5
JAX +1
DAL -3

Last Week’s Record 11-4-1 73.33%
Record This Season 11-4-1 73.33%

 

Survivor Selection
Yes, I was eliminated from all survivor pools thanks to the Saints. I’m stubborn and will continue to give out a survivor selection! You could take the Saints this week if you didn’t use them last week, but I am going to select someone else since I used them so ineffectively last week. This week take the LA Rams. Arizona is awful.

Teams used in survivor this season:
New Orleans
LA Rams

In terms of my normal selections I am 1-0-1, but really like the game tonight. I think the Bengals are way much better than the Ravens and the Ravens threw everyone off their terrible scent by playing Buffalo. This is also a reverse line movement game. What is that? Well 72% of the bets on this game are on the Ravens, yet the line has shifted to Bengals -1. To simplify it means the professionals and their larger wagers are on the Bengals, while the public is on the Ravens. ALWAYS FADE THE PUBLIC. I’ll happily take the Bengals -1 tonight.
*I realize the computer took Baltimore, but it is a computer algorithm.

Tomorrow look for the week 2 DFS player pool. Spoiler alert, there will be Steelers.

Week one is in the books and it’s time to look at our results.

The computer algorithm picks went 11-4-1 good for 73.33%. FIRE EMOJI!!!!!

My personal selections on individual games went 1-0-1 and my crazy teaser lost thanks to the Saints defense forgetting that the season started this week. I’ll be posting one weird parlay or teaser per week in hopes of making a few extra dollars. (Crazy Bet record 0-1)

Our survivor selection of the Saints went down in flames along with 30-50% of everyone else. Why wouldn’t Ryan Fitzpatrick light up one of the top defenses from last year? Fitzmagic was on full display and all of my survivor pool entries are now done.

In terms of DFS I had a nice day to start the season. My best finish in the Fan Duel Milly Maker was 274/457,385 which was good for $300. Eight of my ten lineups cashed in the Milly Maker and I made a profit, which is all that matters. My Fan Duel cash lineup was not that great though. Despite scoring 155.82, which is normally good, I was only able to cash in 34.48% of my contests. Playing David Johnson over Melvin Gordon and settling on Dalton over Keenum made a massive difference. (As you will see on Draft Kings) I’ll post my detailed results later in the week when they uploaded to Rotogrinders. The Rivers/Gordon/Allen/TyFreak stack ended up being my best lineup of the day on FD.

On Draft Kings I ended up cashing four out of my five lineups in the Milly Maker. My best finish was 3276/294,117, which was good for $100. That was also a Rivers/Gordon/Allen/TyFreak stack that did well even though the Chargers defense scored a solid -3.0. My Draft Kings cash lineup was very good.  After being unsure of Antonio Brown because of the weather I am glad I stayed with him. I scored a massive 234.26 and won 100% of my cash games!!

Besides being eliminated from all of the survivor pools I am in, it was a fantastic week one. After all any non-losing week is a good one.

It’s finally week one!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I am not excited at all. Put on a Disney movie for the kids to watch (Inside Out) so Daddy could get some extra prep work and writing done. We have had some weather updates from Cleveland, where the rain will not be as bad as expected. The wind may be an issue but I am going back to Antonio Brown.  This is a risk, especially in cash games, but I feel good about it.

Computer selections were posted a few days ago, but it’s time for my wagers.

CINN +2
I think they are healthy and the better team. Indy’s roster is very bad overall. In a few weeks we will look back and wonder how the Colts could be favored in this game.

Denver -3
Every year we have a surprise team come out of nowhere and win ten games. I think the Broncos could be that team. Why yes, I would like to invest a lot of money in Case Keenum. I have a friend coming over to watch games that is a Denver fan, so that should make this even more fun.

5 Team 7 point Teaser +300
CINN +9
PITT +3.5
BALT -.5
NO -3
MINN PK
Yes, trying to get five games correct is hard, but it pays +300! If you really want have fun add the Packers in tonight and it pays even more!

 

Week One DFS Stacks
When you are stacking you must ALWAYS play a QB with a WR from their team and run it back with a player from the opposing team. All the data says that is the optimal way to play, even if it doesn’t work every week. The goal here is to give ourselves the best opportunity for a big GPP score. I am not playing to cash, I am playing with win GPP’s.

Draft Kings
Rivers/Allen/Tyfreak
Keenum/Sanders/Lockett
Keenum/Sanders/Baldwin
Dalton/AJG/Doyle
Dalton/AJG/Ross/Doyle

Somehow in the DFS community Dalton is becoming chalk. One way differentiate off that chalk is by adding in John Ross. He is a big play and explosive WR and great pivot off the chalk that will be Keelan Cole.

Fan Duel
Rivers/Gordon/Allen/Tyfreak
Rivers/Allen/Tyfreak
Brady/Hogan/Gronk/White/Hopkins
Brady/Hogan/Hopkins
Brees/Kamara/Thomas/Godwin
Dalton/AJG/Doyle
Dalton/AJG/Ross/Doyle
Keenum/Sanders/Lockett
Keenum/Sanders/Baldwin

I have not deviated from my core at all, but have added some onslaught stacks. An onslaught stack is using 3-4 players from one team and expecting that they score a ton of points and your lineup soaks it all up. Sony Michel being ruled out means the Patriots have three RB’s in Burkhead, White and Hill. Hill is short yardage and goaline only. The Pats have only four healthy WR’s so expect James White to be on the field a ton in this one.

Pending any news this is my plan. It could change if anything else comes out between now and lock. LFG!!!!!!!

Nothing wakes you up on a Saturday morning like a child putting their face one inch from yours. Every parent knows this feeling. That’s how my wife and I were greeted this morning. While getting ready to watch some college football I have slowly narrowed my player pool down. The weather in Cleveland is making it apparent that any and all passing game options must be dropped. Sadly, I won’t be playing Antonio Brown unless the weather changes drastically. This is causing me to rework my Fan Duel cash lineup plan.

For some Saturday reading I recommend that everyone read Evan Silva’s weekly game break down. This article is very detailed and should help you make some decisions heading into tomorrow. I’ll have another post tomorrow as my daughter just dumped M&M’s all over the kitchen.

The first main slate of the year is this Sunday and building a player pool is almost as important as making your lineups. We will all miss out on playing a guy who scores three TD’s in a game, but did we even consider that player? Why did or didn’t they make the cut? Part of improving is working on your process.

Looking at the entire player pool can be overwhelming, but narrowing your field can make your Sunday mornings a little easier. Plus, doing some prep work ahead of time allows for more family time and a happy wife. (This is super important to DFS and gambling longevity) Since prices have been out for over a month, there is some clear and obvious value we can all look to. Keelan Cole is the minimum on Fan Duel and barely above the minimum on Draft Kings, he should be a cash game lock. (Just a reminder that cash games are all head-to-heads, 50/50’s and double ups. Tourney’s or GPP’s are events with larger prize pools and different payouts the higher you score. I normally make one cash lineup and several GPP lineups every week)

Despite doing all this preparation and work to get ready for Sunday you must remain flexible. The Sunday last year in Buffalo where they had blizzard like conditions made Shady McCoy a must play. I didn’t even consider playing him until about an hour before lock. This list below will change.

Current Player Pool

QB
Case Keenum – My favorite off the wall stacking cheap QB.
Phillip Rivers – Has been awful against KC recently, but KC defense is bad.
Andy Dalton – Quietly, everyone is healthy and was once a top five fantasy QB.
Tom Brady – Super obvious play.
Deshaun Watson – Ehh, I’m not so sure he ends up on any lineup.
Drew Brees – Kind of want to stack him with Kamara.

RB
Rex Burkhead – Super cheap and role is not exactly known.
Melvin Gordon – He is going to get close to 30 touches in some way.
Royce Freeman – Named the starter and is affordable.
Alex Collins – I don’t know if I believe in him yet, but great GPP play.
Christian McCaffrey – I believe the hype.
James White – Super safe especially on DK.
David Johnson – No one is talking about him, but healthy in a good spot.
Alvin Kamara – The Saints have two active RB’s, great matchup, opportunity is there.
James Connor – Will be locked into all of my lineups when Bell is officially ruled out week one.

WR
Stefon Diggs – I think Minny is better than last year.
Chris Hogan – Who else is Brady gonna throw to?
Keelan Cole – Min priced on FD, 3800 on DK.
Emmanuel Sanders – I love Denver’s upside this year.
Antonio Brown – No Bell = More AB targets.
Keenan Allen – Stack with Rivers.
Tyrell the Gazelle Williams – If you need a GPP guy.
John Ross – See my Dalton love.
Tyler Lockett – Doug Baldwin has a tough matchup and someone has to catch passes.
Doug Baldwin – He will be in one lineup I think.
AJ Green – Yes, I will have a Dalton/Green stack this weekend.
TY Hilton – See my last post about my Hilton love.
Michael Thomas – Saints onslaught makes sense, but who to run it back with?

Tight End
ASJ – Is he healthy?
Greg Kittle – So cheap.
Jack Doyle – Also so cheap and I love him.
Vance McDonald –If healthy and no Bell, I’m in.
Jordan Reed – Remember when Reed was like 6k last year?
Delanie Walker – I think I’m going to have a lot of Doyle.

This is where I am currently. I’ll post my stacks on Sunday to give a clear picture of who I am really backing. Did I miss anyone?

Week one is starting so it’s time to post our computer algorithm based selections. This picks are against the spread, but could be useful in a picks league or a survivor contest as well. Starting in week two when the computer really likes a play it will be labeled as a premium selection. If the computer loves a play it will be labeled platinum.

PHIL -2
PITT -4
CINN +3
TENN -1.5
MINN -6
NE -6.5
TB +9.5
JAX -3
BUFF +7
KC +3
SEA +3
WASH +1
DAL +3
CHIC+7.5
NYJ +6.5
LAR -4

Last Week’s Record NA
Record This Season NA

 

Survivor Selection

For my week one survivor selection I am taking the New Orleans Saints. They are the largest favorite. They are at home. They get to play Ryan Fitzpatrick. This seems very safe and easy, but I understand if you want to use Baltimore this week. I am saving Baltimore for when they host the Browns later in the season.

Teams used in survivor this season:
New Orleans

 

Now that all of my best ball and season long drafts have concluded, it’s time to talk about my player allocation. I make my own set of fantasy rankings and have my own preconceived notions about certain players and situations before the season starts. It is very important to step back and see how everything played out if we want to find the holes in our game and improve for the future. This year my strategy was very simple for redraft and best ball leagues. In the first few rounds draft as many wide receivers and running backs as I can, while waiting as long as possible for quarterback and tight end. Every fantasy analyst thinks QB is very deep and they are correct. I was more than happy going into the season with about 25 different guys as my QB1. In terms of tight end, if you didn’t get one of the three premium guys (Gronk, Ertz, Kelce) TE’s 4-16 are all essentially the same. I have one share of one of those premium tight ends (Ertz) and feel very good about my tight end situation on all of my rosters.

Who is my most drafted player?

Seattle WR Tyler Lockett
Before Lockett signed his big extension a few days ago; Lockett appeared to be headed for the no.2 WR role on the Seahawks. The new contract confirms his role. Seattle is going to be bad. VERY BAD. Bad teams have to throw a lot and last year’s no.2 WR has moved on. Considering the location where I have drafted Lockett, I love him and am not surprised he is my most owned player.

KC QB Pat Mahomes
Andy Reid QB’s always finish inside the top ten in end of season fantasy rankings. Mahomes is being selected well outside the top ten. Mahomes has a big arm and tons of weapons. The Chiefs defense is not going to be good. If Mahomes is my QB1 I am very happy. (Yes, the week one matchup is tough at LAC, but I can deal with it)

Indy WR TY Hilton
Hilton is very inconsistent, but put up decent numbers the last two years without Andrew Luck. Luck is now back and looking healthy. The AFC south is a tough division and the Colts have zero running backs. The Colts will have to throw early and often and Hilton should be a safe 10+ points in PPR every week.

NE WR Chris Hogan
Brady doesn’t have anyone to throw to. Hogan is going to catch close to 100 passes this year. If you start RB/RB in drafts I have no issue with Hogan in the 3^rd. I have Hilton and Hogan together in several leagues.

Wash RB Chris Thompson
Thompson is not 100%. The Redskins division is going to be even better than last year. Alex Smith likes to check down often and Thompson was fantastic before getting hurt last year. He is going to have lots of value in PPR or .5 PPR leagues. He is my RB4 or RB5 in every league I own him.

Indy TE Jack Doyle
I am not worried about Eric Ebron being on the Colts. I believe in Andrew Luck and the Colts needed to throw a ton this year.

What does all this mean? My most owned players were selected in round 3-5 (Hilton and Hogan), or very late in all my drafts. If these guys pop and out perform their average draft position, it should put me in great shape in all my season long and best balls leagues.