Wagers
CINN +4
Atlanta’s defense keeps getting worse and they are still getting respect in terms of the line. Obviously, I like the Bengals today.

PITT -3
Primetime/Home Ben Roethlisberger. They kill at home on primetime.

I don’t really like too much else. One of the best pieces of advice is don’t force it. Just because there are games doesn’t mean you have to bet. I know that can be hard, but bankroll management and discipline is very important.

Crazy Teaser of the Day
7 Point Six team Teaser Pays +475!!
CINN +11
PITT +4
LAC -3
DEN +11.5
INDY +7
DET +10

UNDERTAKER (GONG) Total Of the Day
UNDER 44 DET/DAL

Week Three DFS Stacks
Disclaimer***
When you are stacking you must ALWAYS play a QB with a WR from their team and run it back with a player from the opposing team. All the data says that is the optimal way to play, even if it doesn’t work every week. The goal here is to give ourselves the best opportunity for a big GPP score. I am not playing to cash, I am playing with win GPP’s.

Draft Kings
Dalton/Boyd/Ridley
Ryan/Ridley/Boyd
Eli/Shepard/Kamara
Dalton/Boyd/Julio

I really hope that Calvin Ridley is not the Admiral Akbar play of the day. Since there is so little value, there really isn’t anyone that feels like a trap. Maybe Sony Michel, but I am not playing him. My core is going to be Boyd/Shepard/Gordon/Gio and I am going to rotate other players in and around them.

Fan Duel
Dalton/Boyd/Julio
Dalton/Boyd/Julio
Eli/Shepard/Kamara
Ryan/Ridley/Boyd
Dalton/Boyd/Ridley

Dalton is still too cheap on both major sites, as is Tyler Boyd. Boyd will be over 6k next week. I have Gio locked in every lineup. I like the Julio bounce back spot, but the cheap play of the day may be Tyler Eifert who is way too cheap on FD. I am all over the Colts on both sites for my cheap defensive play.

Pending any news this is my plan. It could change if anything else comes out between now and lock.

By week four most of the value has been sucked out of players unless there is an injury. This week there hasn’t been any major injury that has created value except for Joe Mixon. Yes, this injury happened weeks ago, but Gio Bernard is too cheap for his role and how the game against the Falcons is shaping up. The total has already been bet up three points. The Falcons are on a historic pace for completions given up to RB’s. Not only is Gio going to be in my player pool, he is a cash game lock.

Not only did I hit all three wagers last night, but my Monday-Thursday DFS slate was very successful. I said to take Vikings players and I ran it back with Rams WR’s. It wasn’t looking good after Monday, but the Vikings did their job and it paid off for me. If Cousins takes the Vikings down and hits Diggs for a TD to tie the game I could have won several GPP’s. All you can do is keep putting yourself in good positions and hope for the best. All my entries finished inside the top 150 of every GPP I was in.

Since the Vikings +7.5 was good I am now 7-2-1 good for 77.77%. I also hit my Vikings and over tease taking my crazy teaser record to 2-5 (-320) for 28.57%.

AS always please read Evan Silva’s weekly game reports.

(Just a reminder that cash games are all head-to-heads, 50/50’s and double ups. Tourney’s or GPP’s are events with larger prize pools and different payouts the higher you score. I normally make one cash lineup and several GPP lineups every week) The player pool below is for the main Draft Kings and Fan Duel slate. Thursday, Sunday night and Monday night are not a part of their main slate.

Current Player Pool

QB
Andy Dalton- I am going to have so much Dalton this week.
Matt Ryan – All the Falcons this week too.
Eli Manning – They will need to score to stay with the Saints.
Drew Brees – Always on the short list.
Phillip Rivers – If Keenan Allen sits I have more intrest.

 

RB
Alvin Kamara – If he is not in consideration you are doing it wrong.
Melvin Gordon – Great spot.
Gio Bernard – See above.
Tevin Coleman – Sneaky GPP play.
Saquan Barkley – Will catch lots of passes, better suited for DK.

WR
JULIO – Julio Eruption spot. (Has to happen)
Michael Thomas – Look at how many targets he gets.
Calvin Ridley – ALL the points.
Keenan Allen – SF is not good.
Will Fuller – Can now be called safe for cash. Weird.
Tyler Boyd – Too cheap for role he has. (Said this last week and it’s still true)
Sterling Shepard – All in here, especially with no Evan Engrahm.
OBJ – Yep, need to score.
AJ Green – Sneaky Comeback play.
Mike Williams – If Allen is out, or maybe even if not.
Antonio Calloway – He is the minimum on FD.

Tight End
Greg Kittle – KITTLE DEATH TRAIN REMAINS.
Zach Ertz – Eagles no.1 option.
Austin Hooper –Still very cheap.
Eric Ebron – He sucks, but opportunity is there.
Trey Burton – Every TE has killed the Bucs.
David Njoku – Baker’s going to change that offense.

This is where I am currently. I’ll post my stacks on Sunday to give a clear picture of who I am really backing. Did I miss anyone?

The week four computer algorithm picks are in! We have zero platinum plays this week. However, we do have a few premium picks. I really like the Vikings and so does the computer. But, why is the line different? The computer picks are based on the Hilton/Westgate Super contest of handicapping. This is the $1500 buy in contest that features the best handicappers in the world. Those spreads are set and lock into place. I am in a contest that follows the same rules and spreads and I encourage others to try one. Select five games a week against the spread, two points are awarded for a win and one for a tie. The contest ends after week seventeen. I have been in one since I was ten years old, which is completely normal.

Premium Selections
CINN +5.5
MIA +6.5
NO -3.5
SF +10.5

Regular Selections
MINN +7
TB +3
DET +3
BUFF +9.5
PHILLY -4
HOU +1
NYJ +7.5
OAK -2.5
SEA -3
BALT +3
KC -4.5

Computer Overall 28-19-1 59.57%
Premium 3-3 50%
Platinum 2-4 33.33%

My Picks
I just saw the Vikings at +7.5 and I am jumping on board. This is a perfect spot. The public will be on the Rams. Everyone saw the Vikings get killed by the Bills last week. The Rams defense is dinged up and points will be scored.

My Picks Record 6-2-1 75%

Crazy Teasers
I am staying with tonight’s game and love the over as well. I’m going to do a 7 point -120 tease and take the Vikings to +14.5 and the total to 42 and go OVER. *When I say -120 that means you have to bet $120 to win $100.

Crazy Teaser Record 1-5 16.66% (-420)

Undertaker 1-0 100%
No Picks yet this week.

 

Daily Fantasy Cash Game Win Rates
Fan Duel
Week 1 34.48%
Week 2 21%
Week 3 54.1%

Obviously, I have a leak in my game in the early season. Maybe I am playing the wrong cheap QB’s or I am playing players better for full point PPR, like Draft Kings scoring. I am working on this aspect specifically for this week!

Draft Kings
Week 1 100%
Week 2 18%
Week 3 73%

In week two I played Keenum in cash over Mahomes and well Mahomes threw six TD’s.

Every parent has one point in the day with kids that they absolutely dread. For some people it’s the morning. For others it’s bath time. For me it’s bedtime. It really doesn’t make any sense. Over the last six years and change, bedtime for my children has fluctuated so much it is insane. Sometimes both kids are difficult, sometimes both are easy. Other times, one is extremely difficult and the other is very easy. It feels like playing bedtime roulette, kids can land on red or black and on those rare occasions having us parents green with anger.

(I was going to make a Passenger 57 joke about “always bet on black” about the roulette, but I was afraid no one would get the reference. Bill Simmons mentioned they should remake this movie right now. I agree 100%. Let’s get Michael B Jordan to be an action star. The Creed 2 trailer looks amazing and we need more action stars, but I digress.)

Both of my kids use a sound machine. We can’t be alone in this. Besides the obvious calming effects that it has, it also allows me to watch sports at a loud volume and not wake the kids up…once they finally fall asleep. My son now likes a cool wash cloth on his eyes to help him “calm down and relax for bed,” as he puts it. I feel like I work in a spa. I think a luxury spa charges for this service. We do it with a hug and a smile and then go pack his lunch. My son is currently easy to put to bed. He gets his spa treatment and now listens to bedtime stories on his iPad and falls asleep. Well, besides the three dozen hugs and kisses he requires before my wife and I are allowed to leave the room. At this point he isn’t the issue.

My daughter is a master manipulator. When did she learn this? Where did she learn this? Are some people just born with this natural skill? She just became potty trained this summer after turning three. She has decided the following about bed time.

1. She never wants to go to bed.
2. She hates having any and all covers on.
3. She requires an ice cold beverage before bed and on her night stand.
4. She requires at minimum six to eight babies or stuffed animals in her bed.
5. They must be arranged EXACTLY how she wants.
6. She will go to the bathroom several times even if she doesn’t have to go or actually goes.

My daughter has figured out that saying she has to use the bathroom is a game changer. She knows that since that was the priority this summer, she can play that card whenever she wants and we will acquiesce her request. So here we are. We do this bedtime dance every single night. Last night she had to use the bathroom four times in under an hour. THIS IS EXHAUSTING! (Taylor Swift voice)

My wife and I are never, ever, ever, getting the kids to bed in under an hour. (I swear that’s my last Taylor Swift reference today) What does everyone else do? I’ve been reading articles on how to help the situation and it has not been effective. I am going with the “it’s just a stage” and the age of three is way worse than two. See the terrible two’s get all the publicity, but age three is infinitely worse. Either way I am tired of the second shift bedtime extravaganza we have going on. Do you have any suggestions? I’ve got a blank space, so please send me your idea. (Lied about no more Taylor Swift references)

Week three is almost in the books, but this has already been a good weekend. The Admiral Akbar trap games of the week were Green Bay and Chicago. Neither team covered and the Packers lost outright. Core Clement was the DFS Akbar selection and he did as expected, not that much. Once news hit that the Bengals would have only two healthy RB’s moving to Gio made a lot of sense. Thankfully, I dumped some of my Murray shares on Draft Kings. Despite playing 100% Murray on Fan Duel I still cashed 4/5 lineups in the milly maker. My cash lineup failed to cash, thanks Will Dissly. No Major scores, but a profitable weekend on FD. I ended up cashing in 54.1% of my cash games on FD, despite someone picking up 20 of my head-to-heads and them scoring 148.06 and beating me easily.

Draft Kings was slightly more profitable even though only 2/3 of my lineups cashed in the milly maker. My best lineup scored just under 200 and if Julio was Ridley would have been in position for a fantastic day. I cashed 73% of my cash games on DK thanks to Matt Ryan going bonkers at his sub 6k price tag. What really helped my day was my under 1% owned Mike Williams blowing up and scoring two touchdowns. A profitable day on both sites is all anyone can hope for.

The computer algorithm had another good day and the season long record now sits at 27-19-1 (58.70%) with the Steelers tonight.  Premium pays are 3-3 for 50% and Platinum plays are 2-4 for 33.33%.

My personal wagers are looking very strong at this point. Miami and NO came through and I am now 4-2-1 (66.66%) with the Steelers -1 tonight. Now the Steelers are +1 and I am going to wager on them again. Might as well double down!

My crazy teasers did not do well, thanks to the Patriots losing last night. They have moved to 0-5 (-520). Time to get back on the horse! Pittsburgh +8 and OVER 47.5 (-120 7 point Tease).

The Undertaker total of the day came through very easily as the Colts and Eagles struggled to score in the rain. The Dead Man is 1-0.

 

Monday-Thursday Slate
I don’t play a lot of short slate NFL, but there is an interesting situation set to happen this week. The Rams had both their corners get hurt on Sunday and now play Thursday against what was supposed to be a good Vikings team. The Vikings got crushed at home against Buffalo and it appears the Rams will destroy the Vikings. This is a fantastic game theory spot to play Cousins and the Vikings. In a two game slate if you can get a live low owned team you have to do it. The Vikings could in theory score tons of points and give you great leverage on the field. I’m stacking the Vikings.

Week 3 is here and we should be smarter this week. We have another week of data and games to watch and dissect. I already took the Steelers -1 and have two teases open from this post the other day. We just watched Ferdinand for the fifth time in our house and today we will try to out smart the matador.

MIA -3
The Raiders are so bad. This is a classic west coast team traveling East for a 1 PM start in the Miami Heat. The professionals are on Oakland and the public is not really on the Dolphins. Oakland has no defense and Miami is above average on both sides of the ball. Dolphins defense also a nice DFS play.

NO +3
Atlanta defense is injured and the Saints are due to break out. Everyone things this will be a shootout, but both teams in the mid to high twenties feels about right.

Two Team Teaser
NE PK
PITT +6
Lay the -120 and watch this win come in.

The Undertaker Total of the Week
(GONG……..MY GOD THAT’S THE UNDERTAKER’S MUSIC)

PHILLY/INDY UNDER 47.5

Admiral Akbar Games of the Day
The game to be afraid of today is the Packers. They are begging you to take GB -2.5. I would also caution all of you on taking the Bears today. Laying more than three with Mitch on the road? This certainly feels like a spot where Arizona at least puts up a fight. Run away from both of these.

Week Three DFS Stacks
Disclaimer***
When you are stacking you must ALWAYS play a QB with a WR from their team and run it back with a player from the opposing team. All the data says that is the optimal way to play, even if it doesn’t work every week. The goal here is to give ourselves the best opportunity for a big GPP score. I am not playing to cash, I am playing with win GPP’s.

Draft Kings
Jimmy G/Goodwin/Hunt
Ryan/Julio/Thomas
Brees/Kamara/Thomas/Julio

Corey Clement is the Admiral Akbar play of the day. IT’S A TRAP!!!!!!!!  Do I have some Clement, yes, but the warning signs are there. Clement tweaked a hamstring Friday, he isn’t built to get 25 touches, Wentz is back and he throws it downfield more than Foles. Clement could easily get 35% or the touches and make value, but I just don’t see how he smashes. It feels more likely he busts than blows up. I really want some of the Chargers passing game today as they have to do something to stay with the Rams. Insert Mike Williams. I like Kamara today, as does everyone else, but I want Gurley and the safe 30 touches.

Fan Duel
Jimmy G/Goodwin/Kelce
Jimmy G/Goodwin/TYFREAK
Brees/Kamara/Thomas/Julio
Ryan/Kamara/Julio/Thomas

Fan Duel has made Lat Murray way too cheap for the situation. I am playing him 100% on FD and close to that on DK. Murray is a much better play than Clement, or Gio. The Touches are secure; the game script makes a lot of sense as well. I am all in on Goodwin. If he is inactive at 11:30 today, the scramble will begin.  The sneaky defense plays of the day are Dallas and Washington. Both are getting pressure on the QB and will have turnover opportunities.

Pending any news this is my plan. It could change if anything else comes out between now and lock.

Week 3 is here! There is not a lot of value besides Tyler Boyd and maybe some RB plays. Most of these are going to be dependent upon injury news. (Eagles)

AS always please read Evan Silva’s weekly game reports.

(Just a reminder that cash games are all head-to-heads, 50/50’s and double ups. Tourney’s or GPP’s are events with larger prize pools and different payouts the higher you score. I normally make one cash lineup and several GPP lineups every week)

Current Player Pool
QB
Carson Wentz – The Philly offense is going to get so much better.
Matt Ryan – All the Falcons this week.
Drew Brees – Stack this game up.
Deshaun Watson – Better at home with Will Fuller in the lineup.
Jimmy G –ALL IN ON HIM AND GOODWIN.

RB
Todd Gurley – He is finally maybe going to play an entire game.
Alvin Kamara – Faded last week and this is a smash spot.
Melvin Gordon – He may catch 10 passes this week.
Kareem Hunt – Price is down, great spot, but only two targets this year.
Jordan Howard – FD only here.
Gio Bernard – Seems like he is going to get a majority of the work.
Corey Clement – If other Philly RB’s are out, I am all in.
Tevin Coleman – Price is a smidge too high.
Austin Ekeler – Secretly getting lots of touches and in a fast paced game where he and Gordon will both be playing.
Latavius Murray – If and ONLY if Cook is out.

WR
Marques Goodwin- ALL IN.
Sammy Watkins – I want exposure to this game.
TYFREAK – Price is insane, but need to have some.
JULIO – Julio Eruption spot.
Michael Thomas – ATL/NO Game stacks.
Calvin Ridley – ALL the points.
Nelson Agholor – Eagles only have a few passing options.
Keenan Allen – Rams are going to score lots of points.
Geronimo Allison- He’s cheap.
Will Fuller – GPP only.
Tyler Boyd – Too cheap for role he has.

Tight End
Greg Kittle – KITTLE DEATH TRAIN ENGAGED.
Zach Ertz – Eagles no.1 option.
Austin Hooper – Second on the Falcons in targets.

This is where I am currently. I’ll post my stacks on Sunday to give a clear picture of who I am really backing. Did I miss anyone?

Computer Algorithm Picks for week three are here! In terms of tonight’s game how can you touch it? Cleveland is favored for the first time since 2015. The Browns find new ways to not win every week, but the Jets aren’t exactly lighting the world on fire. Tonight is a hard pass for me straight up, but not the computer.

Platinum Plays
NYJ +3
NO +3

Premium Plays
KC -6.5
PHIL -6.5
WASH +3

Regular Plays
MIA -3
BUFF +16.5
CINN +3
TENN +9.5
DEN +5.5
NYG +6.5
LAC +7
ARZ +6
DAL +2
DET +7
PITT-1

Overall 18-13-1 58.06%
Platinum 1-3 25%
Premium 1-2 33%

My own selections went 0-2 last week, bringing my season record to 2-2-1. I am taking the Pittsburgh Steelers -1 right now. I still believe in them and feel that Fitzmagic has to end. I think this line goes up by Monday so I am locking it in right now. Speaking of locking it in…

The Patriots never lose back-to-back games with B&B and they obviously (Trademark Mike Tomlin) lost last week. Since the Pats are -7 this week, I would recommend any and all teases with them. A six or seven point teases can be used in any combination with whomever you like. The Patriots are not losing this week, so tease them down and have some fun. In Fact I will take the JETS +10 and the PATS PICK.

Crazy Teaser for Week 3!! I am 0-2 on these for -200, but have another one this week.
PITT +6
MINN -9.5
KC -.5
JAX -2.5
NO +10
DEN +12.5
NE PK

This pays +475!!!

Jack (Age 6): I think marbles is Spanish for money.
Me: wait, what?

No matter what everyone tells you, nothing can prepare you for being a father. I’ve played 36 hour poker stretches where I have not slept. I’ve studied all night in college or written term papers for 24 consecutive hours, but nothing is as exhausting as having children. Yes, everyone knows when you have a new baby you don’t sleep much, blah, blah, blah. I’m not talking about that. I am talking about once they become toddlers. “They” say it gets easier, but “they” are stupid. It’s just different. Yes, both my children sleep through the night, mostly every night. However, no one prepares you for that second shift as an adult. No one tells you, you are just going to be tired… FOR YEARS. Don’t believe me? Ask any parent with two small children. Going to work is significantly easier than staying home. Being a stay at home parent is the most difficult job in the world and I don’t think it is close. Why? YOU DO NOT GET A BREAK. It’s like being an on-call doctor only your shift never ends, because at any point you may have to wake up and deal with god knows what. Potty break. Bloody nose. Nightmares. Needing a drink at 3 A.M.  OH THE PLACES YOU WILL GO. I think this Dr. Seuss book was written about being a parent.

When I say second shift I am talking about the time after work when you pick up your children and are at home. As a parent all I want to do is play with my kids, hang out with them, and talk about their day. In reality we have to:
1. Unpack their back pack and lunch for the day.
2. Wash the dishes they used or took to lunch.
3. Get them a snack and drink.
4. Start to prep dinner.
5. Pack lunches for tomorrow.
6. Have kids complete any homework.
7. Throw in a load of laundry. (LIKE STUDENT LOANS, LAUNDRY NEVER ENDS)
8. Cook and serve dinner.
9. Clean up dinner.
10. Run the dishwasher.
11. Bedtime routine for kids.
12. Brush teeth, bathroom, and bath.
13. Pick out kids clothes for tomorrow.
14. Switch laundry.
15. Get kids in bed.

Yes, I would love to play Mario Kart and have a tea party instead of this and of course some days we do. But, it’s not like someone else is going to do this stuff. Thankfully, I have an amazing wife and as a team we tackle all of this. I can’t fathom how hard this must be for a single parent. After second shift ends I am so tired and want to unwind, but mostly end up falling asleep on the couch. That is until the NBA season starts. Then I make it until the late NBA games start. Afternoon coffee is fantastic. Adulting can suck sometimes, but in the end the kids are worth it. (Note, Word doesn’t think Adulting is a word. Webster’s people need to add it next year)

Jack (age 3): DADDY! DADDY! DADDY!
Me: Yes?!
Jack: Dogs have bones okay!

My favorite part of my day every day is when I get home to be with my children. No matter what kind of day I had, they are always so excited to see me and give me a great big hug. That is the best feeling in the world. While some days and moments can be trying I’m just going to enjoy the journey and not get bogged down in the grind that can be everyday life. If you do it’s fine. Just know that you are not alone. Everyone around my age with young kids is going through it, it’s just not fun to talk about or post on social media.  It’s important to have things to look forward to and get excited about, like NFL weekends, or picking your kids up from daycare. Until next time, keep moving forward parents!

After two weeks it is always good practice to look at your season long team and evaluate all of your situations. Do you have dead weight on your bench? Did you kicker get cut? Does your team need fixed before it is too late? One game is too small of a sample size to make any rash decisions. I feel your team should essentially play itself unless bye weeks and injuries make decisions difficult. If you never know who to play you will keep second guessing yourself and making the wrong decision.  Make sure you read weekly rankings and don’t do something to prove how smart you are. If every fantasy ranker has a WR at eight and you want to play a guy ranked 45^th, what are you even doing? Go split a 20 in blackjack if you are trying to do crazy stuff like that. Can it work? Sure, in the short term, but in the long run you will be a losing player.

In terms of my most drafted players from a few blogs ago, I feel pretty good. Tyler Lockett is WR24 despite being draft in the last few rounds of drafts. If you can still add him in your league I would. Pat Mahomes is a homerun. HE HAS 10 TOUCHDOWNS IN THE FIRST TWO WEEKS. Mahomes was drafted in the QB16 range. TY Hilton was taken in rounds 3-5 and is currently WR19. He has basically lived up to expectations at this point, which I am happy with. Despite scoring two touchdowns this weekend Chris Hogan has underachieved. He is WR49 and was supposed to be a PPR monster.  Chris Thompson is current RB5 in PPR leagues. Yes, you read that right. FIVE! He has played for my best ball teams but I have yet to actually play him in any of my season long leagues. My one big miss appears to be Jack Doyle. His production has actually been stunted by Eric Ebron and he is currently TE17. That is not massively lower than where he was drafted, but it’s not ideal either.

Week 3 ADDS
Bears Defense  – They play the Cardinals who have 6 points in two games.
Will Dissly TE SEA – I thought maybe one week fluke. Seattle is so bad they will be throwing every game.
Fitzmagic QB TB – This will end eventually…right?
Quincy Enunwa WR NYJ- The targets are real.
Gio Bernard RB CIN – Must add.

Computer record update!

After two weeks the computer algorithm has the following record.

Overall 18-13-1 58.06%
Platinum 1-3 25%
Premium 1-2 33%

Meanwhile the Steelers seem to be falling apart. I have faith. I will happily lay the one point in Tampa Bay on Monday night. But this is most Steeler fans right now.