I ended up going 4-2 last weekend. The Steelers was an emotional selection and the Eagles just were crushed. The Saturday games were my largest wagers and they were not much of a sweat really. This is such a fantastic football weekend and I am so excited.
Three of the games this weekend, I have a side that I really like. I have only bet two of them at this point though. So, why is that the case? Well, I am waiting for a better number. In one of the games, I am really struggling to make my selections. Please shop around for lines as you can find Buffalo at +2 or +1.5. The same can be said for the Rams at +3 or +2.5, depending on the time and the book.
The last few years, the spread has almost not mattered. Just pick the winner and bet that side with the spread. It actually has mattered less and less. This weekend, that could be the case as well as we have some very small numbers. Just like last week, I am going to pick every game. I will go by the order in which the games are played, which also fits with the order I like the games.
I get the hesitation. They lost to the Jets. They lost to the Texans. They have not been healthy for weeks. Yet, they are still the number one seed. The Bengals have been up and down all year long. As a Steeler fan, I have waited for the Bengals to have a big win and come crashing back to Earth. I have wagered against them multiple times, profitably. I have been on them multiple times, profitably. Last week was the Bengals heroic moment to get the playoff win that has eluded them for decades. This week, they come crashing back down.
Derrick Henry is back, the Bengals lost their best run stuffer last week. The Titans offense is healthy and finally all together. How much Julio Jones matters, who can say. However, I know that offense is vastly different with Henry as the lead back. The Titans play action passes will be much improved. AJ Brown will be running free through that Bengal secondary. Quietly, the Titans front four has put together a solid season. My only real hesitation in this game is if Joe Burrow can quickly hit his wide receivers. Having said all that, no one believes in the Titans. I was on the Bengals last week and frankly, they should have won by more points. There were some issues and they struggled more than I anticipated. The Titans offense will present too many problems for Cincinnati. Next year the Bengals will be a formidable playoff opponent. First, they need to fix the defense. The Titans will exploit those defensive holes and remind everyone how they earned the number one seed. The largest bet I have made this weekend is the Titans -3.5.
The amount of people I know who love Jimmy G in Green Bay when it is going to be very cold is strange to me. Yes, you can run on Green Bay. Yes, the Packers have lost home playoff games plenty of times. It is still a banged up Jimmy G on the road in Wisconsin. Maybe, I am jaded. I think the Niners secondary is awful. I believe the Packers are going to throw and score. Rodgers does not fail at scoring in the playoffs. His defense may let him down, but he is going to get points. Since 2012, which gives us almost ten years of playoff history, the Packers have scored at least twenty points in every single playoff game. Two of those twenty point games were losses to the Niners.
The Packers are getting healthy for the first time pretty much all season. If you notice a trend here of who is getting healthy, that is who I want to back. This line does seem inflated. Our computer model has this as Green Bay minus one point. I believe that is wrong. I have yet to bet this game as I am waiting to see where this line moves. It has gone up to six, but it is back to 5.5. Outside of the Niners running all over the Packers, which is in play, I do not see San Fran winning here. I believe the Packers are the most complete team in the NFC by far. When it is 21-3 Green Bay at half time, do not say I did not warn you. Give me the Packers -5.5. If Jimmy G plays well, I lose. I am willing to take that risk.
Remember how we were all worried about Matt Stafford after he struggled down the stretch. The Rams blew out an overmatched Cardinals team and now the Rams are only 2.5-point dogs? What is happening here? If the TB offensive line is healthy, this line seems insanely low. Yet, our model has it at Rams +2. Again, I cannot do it. I get Tom Brady at home against a inferior quarterback? Stafford is going from winning his first ever playoff game to now beating Brady on the road? The lone caveat is if the Bucs line injuries are significant and both the center and tackle sit. Of course, that provides several issues for Tampa Bay. Conversely, the Rams an injured secondary and Brady will have his chances to hit open receivers. It is a little scary who Brady will be throwing to, but if those non-Mike Evans receivers make plays the Bucs should win here. When this line dipped to Bucs -2.5, I snatched it up. I am on Tampa Bay here.
The last game is the best game of the weekend. This is the game; I could realistically see going either way. All the games could go either way, but this one I have significantly less conviction. I did bet a Josh Allen prop for this game that I listed below. To boil this down simply, no one has taken advantage of, or had the players to attack the Bills secondary. Tampa Bay carved the Bills up and Buffalo has not exactly played any passing game that can really attack down the field. Now, I get Patrick Mahomes laying under a field goal. At Home? MOREOVER, NO ONE LIKES THEM? People are not immune to being prisoners of the moment. The Bills looked exceptional last weekend, and yes, we were on them. Maybe I am the fool. Maybe the Bills are ready to ascend past the Chiefs. To become the king you have to kill the king in the NFL. If the Bills can go into Kansas City for the second time this season and win another night game, they deserve it all. The winner of this game will be favored next week, no matter who or where they play. I am taking the Chiefs -1.5. Everyone seems to have forgotten what the Chiefs are capable of and that their defense improved. If everyone is on the Bills, I am more than happy to go the other direction.
Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!
Computer Model Plays
Platinum
None
Premium
BUFF +2
Regular Plays
CIN +3.5
SF +5.5
LAR +3
Football Odds Boost You Should Consider Betting
Fan Duel
Nothing is listed yet.
Draft Kings
$10 risk free SGP. Apparently, you can do one each day and get a free bet if you lose.
Barstool Sportsbook
Reminder, never bet with barstool (Their employee boosts) and do not bet timed boosts for a quarter or half and needing to score.
Fox Bet
$5 free wager for opting in. Then do a crazy parlay and try to turn it into real money. .
Titans and Packers to win +120
This should pay +115. This is such a small boost; there is no need to play it. Just bet the games you like here.
KC and TB to win +225
This should pay +191. I am going to wait here and see if the TB offensive line is healthy. If it is, I am in. However, if the line keeps moving toward the Bills, this boost may become less valuable. Take your time here.
Let’s Get Weird
Josh Allen over 49.5 Rushing Yards (Barstool)
DK has this at 50.5. FD has it much higher at 52.5. Always shop around.
Allen averages 60.6 yards rushing in the playoffs. When it matters as the playoffs dog, Allen runs more. Last year in a game they trailed the entire time, he ran for 88 yards. I think he does so Sunday night.
NFL Computer Model
Overall 133-144 48.01%
Playoffs 2-4 33.33%
Platinum 5-9 35.71%
Premium 28-28 50%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 33-37 47.14%
Our Plays
NFL
Overall 30-23 56.60%
NFL Props 1-0 100%
NFL Odds Boosts 16-45 -1565
NFL Teasers and Parlays 3-3 +267
College Football
Overall 8-1 88.88%
College Odds Boosts 3-1 +200
College Teasers and Parlays 1-1 +154
Combined
Overall 38-25 60.31%
Odds Boosts 19-45 -1265
Teasers and Parlays 4-3 +521
Win The Weekends 