(Mentioning new odds boost on thread on the tweet!)
We made it to the playoffs! No, I do not mean the Steelers. I mean us collectively. Some years feel longer than others do and this one really was, very long. One extra week pushes the playoffs back a week or so and it is mid-January, and we finally will get it going. I know this is not usual, but I am going to pick every single game against the spread this week and in the entire playoffs. There is only one game I have zero feel for and I think others feel the same.
Why does the date matter? Weather. We know it is going to be cold in Buffalo. In a week, the temperatures for the Packers are going to be in the single digits. In Tampa, this week there could be storms and rain. Yet, no one is talking about the weather in Cincinnati. Call me old school here. The Raiders are a domed west coast team, who played the last game possible in week 18, including an entire overtime, now traveling for the earliest game this week playing in cold weather. According to some limited research, the weather numbers can of course fluctuate during games, Carr is 0-5 and his team has not scored more than 17 points in any game where the temperature is below 37 degrees. The high temperature Saturday should be around 31, with it getting colder as the game progresses. Again, call me old school. Nevertheless, this feels like an absolutely awful spot for the Raiders. Professionals have come in on the Raiders driving this number down. I do not buy it. I am waiting it out and going to bet the Bengals. This same Raiders team barely beat Nick Mullins and the Browns on the road just a few weeks ago. I will take the Bengals -4.5.
I get it. The Patriots as dogs in the playoffs, it is something everyone would sign up for, like Alabama getting points in college football. Yet, it does not always work out correctly. I know people are ready to claim that the Patriots coaching will help get them through. I am just going to say, I do not see it. This is a rookie QB on the road in awful cold. Mac Jones has struggled in weather before. I love the Bills. I think the Pats are going to be scored on in bunches. Josh Allen has playoff experience. Allen will be rushing a ton. I think the Pats offense falters as they still do not have any weapons. If it was not for wind, the Bills sweep this season series. Now the Buffalo faithful get a night game against a team with zero weapons. I know I am in the minority here, but I love the Bills -4.
Who is playing for the Bucs Sunday. Tampa Bay has plenty of injuries, but have activated some of them off of IR. Yet, will they actually play this weekend. Because of the lack of depth and a defense that is not as good as it was several weeks ago, I think the Eagles have a chance. Of course, the Bucs offense is going to score. I think the Eagles can put up some points too. The best part about playoffs is one game variance. Jalen Hurts could go for 250 passing and 100 rushing and make this game super fun and competitive. The Eagles will hang around and make it interesting. Our model says this spread should be around a touchdown. I will take Philly +8.5.
When the matchups were posted, I was very interested in the Niners. After the discussion this week, it seems like everyone is on the Niners. Well, not the public. The recipe is here. Dallas struggles with teams that can run. Advantage San Fran. I have been going against the Niners, especially in DFS by attacking their secondary. The Niners secondary is awful. I was prepared to place a large wager on Jimmy G and his crew, but have backed off a little. This seems a little too obvious, especially with others having the same initial read. Sports betting is the only field where when things seem too easy, it gives me pause. I would honestly like it better if no one was on the Niners. I am reluctantly going to take San Fran +3. This seems too trendy. It feels like too perfect of a matchup against Dallas. I tend to overthink things and am afraid I am doing it here by backing away from San Fran a little. I am going to stay the course.
Who thinks the Steelers have a chance? Seriously, who? I was ready to bet the Chiefs as soon as the line opened. However, I did not. Do you know anyone who has bet the Steelers? This line should climb as everyone is on the Chiefs right. However, it did not. The Chiefs should crush them and come out strong and fast. However, they have not in the past. This game has a weird feel. The Steeler’s cannot score. If the Chiefs get to 28, it is over. In 2020, the Chiefs fell behind in every playoff game. In 2021, the Chiefs fell behind in two of their three-playoff games. Andy Reid is notorious for slow playoff starts and baffling home playoff loses. Having said all that do the Steelers have enough to win? Maybe. It would take a lot. The Steelers need at least five sacks. They need to win the turnover battle by at least +2. They need to run the ball efficiently. Lastly, I am a complete homer. I want to root for the Steelers. The Chiefs have been shaky all year, would losing here be that shocking. If the Steelers went in and the pass rush was dominant and passes were tipped and all the sudden it is 17-14 with three minutes left. This could happen. It is not that wild. Ben won here a few years ago, but Bell and AB are long gone. When everyone is on one team, it makes a ton of sense to go the other way. Especially, when the books have not moved the number. I think the Steelers hang around in an ugly game. I will take the Steelers +12.5.
I have zero feel for the Monday night game. Stafford has been bad. The Cardinals and Kliff have fallen off to an insane degree. The Cardinals have one win in their last five. I refuse to back Arizona in the playoffs. I am taking the Rams -4, because they have more talent and a better coach.
Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!
Computer Model Plays
Platinum
None
Premium
PIT +12.5
Regular Plays
CIN -4.5
NE +4
PHI +8.5
SF +3
ARZ +4
Football Odds Boost You Should Consider Betting
Fan Duel
Nothing is listed yet.
Draft Kings
$10 risk free SGP. Apparently, you can do one each day and get a free bet if you lose.
Hammer the Over Buff/NE
This is free money, but the limit for everyone is very odd.
Barstool Sportsbook
Reminder, never bet with barstool (Their employee boosts) and do not bet timed boosts for a quarter or half and needing to score.
Fox Bet
$5 free wager for opting in. Then do a crazy parlay and try to turn it into real money.
BUFF and CIN to both win +125 (Fox)
This should pay +115. This is a tiny boost. Yet, as you know from above, I love them. I am in.
Allen and Burrow 250+ Passing Yards each +200 (Fox)
Burrow’s prop is set to 262.5
Allen’s prop is set to 243.5 and the over is juiced.
This combo parlayed on Fan Duel pays +242. This is an easy pass.
Let’s Get Weird
BUFF -4/CIN -5.5 Parlay +262
Like I said, maybe I am way off but I love those two.
NFL Computer Model
Overall 131-141 48.16%
Platinum 5-9 35.71%
Premium 28-27 %
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 33-36 47.82%
Our Plays
NFL
Overall 26-21 55.31%
NFL Props 1-0 100%
NFL Odds Boosts 14-44 -1715
NFL Teasers and Parlays 2-3 +005
College Football
Overall 8-1 88.88%
College Odds Boosts 3-1 +200
College Teasers and Parlays 1-1 +154
Combined
Overall 34-23 59.64%
Odds Boosts 17-44 -1415
Teasers and Parlays 3-3 +259
Win The Weekends 