Finally, the NBA is back! I went to bed so early the last few days because there was no late night games to stay up and watch. Tonight we get our first look at the Suns without Chris Paul. SGA is back for OKC. Brooklyn is still missing everyone at home. Garland is out for the Cavs. The Memphis/Minnesota game has a total of almost 240 points. I am excited and ready!

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

NBA Model Plays
CLE -6
BOS -9
CHI -3
OKC +10 (Premium)
MEM -1.5
GSW -9.5
DEN -4.5

*If two games or more reach a certain level, we will label them premium plays in model. The record at bottom will be updated to note we may have more than one premium play per day from the computer model.

Basketball Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
Mystery SGP Odds Boost (DK)
I got 25%. I wish it were higher so I had to use it. With it being this small, meh.



Bet an NBA team to win the title (DK) Return is in free bets
$25 MIN, get $1 for each win they have after the break.
$50 MIN, get $2 for each win they have after the break.
$100 MIN, get $5 for each win they have after the break.
Most teams have roughly 23 games remaining. Assuming a good team wins at a 60% clip to be safe, that’s about 14 wins the rest of the way.
This is an odd one for me. I have the Sixers already. I have a very old Nuggets ticket I forgot about. I want to get weird and West with this play. I am rolling with the Memphis Grizzlies at +2500. They have a very nice schedule to close with several teams that appear to have no direction, or ones that are headed toward the tank. This includes Orlando, Houston 2x, OKC, and Indiana 2x. That is six games they should win for sure. In addition, since the Grizz are such big dogs to win the title, I have some hedge equity in the plays. Memphis +2500.

Tatum to score 30+ +135 (DK)
Tatum’s prop is set to 27.5.
Tatum is +144 to score 30+ on FD. This is obviously, an easy pass. You can get a better number elsewhere.



Ja and JJJ to combine for 60+ Points and rebounds +105 (DK)
DK comes right out with the combined garbage.
Ja’s combo it set to 34.5.
JJJ’s combo is set to 23.5.
As you can tell by adding, they are expected to be near 58 or so. Per usual a parlay of them to go over their props would pay significantly more. Pass for me.

Steph to score 20+ +100 (FOX)
Yes. You are doing this. It should be a free $10, LOL.
Curry’s prop is set to 24.5. I suppose you could be worried about a blowout.

JA and Jokic to each score 25+ +100 (FOX)
JA’s prop is set to 28.5 and the over is juiced.
Jokic’s prop is set to 27.5 and the over is slightly juiced.
This should pay -104. I am in. While it is a small boost, I think both guys get there and have massive games. It feels good to be back. Fire away!

Steph and Trae to combine for 60+ Points +185 (FOX)
Combined, lame.
Curry’s prop is set to 24.5.
Trae’s prop is set to 28.5.
You could parlay them to both go over for +262. I would rather do that. Pass on this boost.

BOS/ATL/MIN to all win +600 (FOX)
Spot the dog!
This has two dogs! While it should pay +489, I am not playing two dogs in a boosted parlay. Pass.

NBA
OKC +10
A healthy OKC with no Chris Paul getting 10 at home. I am in.

Let’s Get Weird

NBA Record 2021-2022
NBA Record 35-35 50%
College Record 2-2 50%
Hoops Combined Record 37-37 50%
Hoops Parlay Record   8-18 +594
Hoops Odds Boosts 39-58 +1676
Hoops Player Props 6-12 -535
NBA Model Premium Plays 29-38 43.28%
NBA Model 399-369 51.95%

About 13 months ago, I wrote a blog titled, “What is NBA Top Shot? Should you buy packs?” Imagine that. A time when packs, plural, more than one, were just readily available. While we made some money on NBA Top Shot back then, we missed the boat slightly. If I had jumped in a few months earlier, I would have made even more money. I do not want you to get the wrong idea here. I did make money, just not as much as I should have. When the market tanked, it hit everyone hard.

Smartly, Top Shot has invigorated things in two ways. The nightly flash challenges are rewarding people who ow and acquiring moments to complete them, but financially and with entertainment. Even if you have a low-value moment, it could end up in a challenge on a given night and allow you to sell it for a profit, or complete the challenge. I have friends who do not closely follow the NBA as I do, but are locked in when they think they have some components for a challenge. I think this will be huge moving forward for interest to stay high and users to stay engaged. Top Shot has the ability to pick random challenge ideas that make even the worse Top Shot moment potentially have some value. Additionally, the challenge rewards have been a nice bonus to many Top Shot account holders.

While the profitability is key, acquiring new users and retaining their interest is massive moving forward. Yes, some of the original moments and rare ones will have value. Nevertheless, for the ordinary person to keep buying packs and coming to the marketplace there needs to be a reason. The flash challenges give them a reason, even if it is to only dump their five Daniel Gafford’s they got in the last pack drop.

The second and most important change NBA Top Shot has made is to include rare moments in regular packs. I get they want to reward their high volume owners with Elite pack drops. Again, you have to give the general public a reason to buy new regular packs. Including some rookies numbered to /4000 is not it. Finally, Top Shot has included more limited or rare moments in regular packs. Yes, the chances of landing them are remote, but the chase and the gamble help sell the product. Why are people buying into sports card box breaks? The chase and the gamble. What if, remains a very powerful phrase when buying sports cards or digital moments, or NFT’s. Do you sell that unopened hobby box? Do you rip it yourself? Do you sell your newly minted NFT prior to reveal? What if it is very rare and worth a significant amount of money. We as people enjoy the chase and the gamble, while also trying to strategically profit.

To summarize, NBA Top Shot is slowly climbing and I believe will keep doing so, albeit slowly. However, that is not why we are here. We are here to talk about the NFL equivalent to NBA Top Shots, NFL All Day. NFL All Day already has the benefit that it is owned by Dapper and users can share a wallet to buy packs and moments on either platform. Today, the NFL All Day Market is supposed to open. At the first try, it lasted 38 seconds before crashing. (Insert it is still in beta joke.)

I was fortunate to get an early invite to NFL All Day. I know plenty of people still have not been invited. I am here saying that I bought every pack I could get my hands on. I am treating these like Series 1 NBA Top Shot moments. I have purchased 10 packs at this time and own 39 moment. My best pull was a Legendary Jaylen Waddle Rookie that is 47/49.

All Day was the first to put rare moments in regular packs. I am sure there will be challenges when next season starts. It would track with what Dapper is doing for the NBA. The NFL is perfectly built challenges, even during island games.

I am mentioning all this, as the market will hopefully; stay online today and moving forward. I will be trying to buy cheap moments. If you have not yet done so, I would advise signing up for an account. Of course, this is if you are allowed. I know some people who despite signing up have not yet received an official invite to join. After wishing I were in NBA Top Shot earlier, I have a chance here to be on the ground floor. Here we go!

About 13 months ago, I wrote a blog titled, “What is NBA Top Shot? Should you buy packs?” Imagine that. A time when packs, plural, more than one, were just readily available. While we made some money on NBA Top Shot back then, we missed the boat slightly. If I had jumped in a few months earlier, I would have made even more money. I do not want you to get the wrong idea here. I did make money, just not as much as I should have. When the market tanked, it hit everyone hard.

Smartly, Top Shot has invigorated things in two ways. The nightly flash challenges are rewarding people who ow and acquiring moments to complete them, but financially and with entertainment. Even if you have a low-value moment, it could end up in a challenge on a given night and allow you to sell it for a profit, or complete the challenge. I have friends who do not closely follow the NBA as I do, but are locked in when they think they have some components for a challenge. I think this will be huge moving forward for interest to stay high and users to stay engaged. Top Shot has the ability to pick random challenge ideas that make even the worse Top Shot moment potentially have some value. Additionally, the challenge rewards have been a nice bonus to many Top Shot account holders.

While the profitability is key, acquiring new users and retaining their interest is massive moving forward. Yes, some of the original moments and rare ones will have value. Nevertheless, for the ordinary person to keep buying packs and coming to the marketplace there needs to be a reason. The flash challenges give them a reason, even if it is to only dump their five Daniel Gafford’s they got in the last pack drop.

The second and most important change NBA Top Shot has made is to include rare moments in regular packs. I get they want to reward their high volume owners with Elite pack drops. Again, you have to give the general public a reason to buy new regular packs. Including some rookies numbered to /4000 is not it. Finally, Top Shot has included more limited or rare moments in regular packs. Yes, the chances of landing them are remote, but the chase and the gamble help sell the product. Why are people buying into sports card box breaks? The chase and the gamble. What if, remains a very powerful phrase when buying sports cards or digital moments, or NFT’s. Do you sell that unopened hobby box? Do you rip it yourself? Do you sell your newly minted NFT prior to reveal? What if it is very rare and worth a significant amount of money. We as people enjoy the chase and the gamble, while also trying to strategically profit.

To summarize, NBA Top Shot is slowly climbing and I believe will keep doing so, albeit slowly. However, that is not why we are here. We are here to talk about the NFL equivalent to NBA Top Shots, NFL All Day. NFL All Day already has the benefit that it is owned by Dapper and users can share a wallet to buy packs and moments on either platform. Today, the NFL All Day Market is supposed to open. At the first try, it lasted 38 seconds before crashing. (Insert it is still in beta joke.)

I was fortunate to get an early invite to NFL All Day. I know plenty of people still have not been invited. I am here saying that I bought every pack I could get my hands on. I am treating these like Series 1 NBA Top Shot moments. I have purchased 10 packs at this time and own 39 moment. My best pull was a Legendary Jaylen Waddle Rookie that is 47/49.

All Day was the first to put rare moments in regular packs. I am sure there will be challenges when next season starts. It would track with what Dapper is doing for the NBA. The NFL is perfectly built challenges, even during island games.

I am mentioning all this, as the market will hopefully; stay online today and moving forward. I will be trying to buy cheap moments. If you have not yet done so, I would advise signing up for an account. Of course, this is if you are allowed. I know some people who despite signing up have not yet received an official invite to join. After wishing I were in NBA Top Shot earlier, I have a chance here to be on the ground floor. Here we go!

We made it to the All-Star Break! Before the events begin, I will be making wagers on the Saturday nights activities. Two years ago, hitting Joe Harris at +600 to win the three-point contest was fantastic. We had a small get together at our house and I was slightly invested every time Harris was up shooting. I think for the finals everyone was locked in. I enjoy wager on All Star Saturday night. Since the dunk contest has so few people, it is nowhere near as entertaining from a sports betting perspective. I will place my selections in the “Let’s get weird” section.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

NBA Model Plays
NA

*If two games or more reach a certain level, we will label them premium plays in model. The record at bottom will be updated to note we may have more than one premium play per day from the computer model.

Basketball Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
NA

NBA

Let’s Get Weird
FVV +500 (FD)
He’s second in makes per game. He’s second in attempts per game. He’s 26^th in percentage made, but his volume is much larger than others that are above him. I also like his stamina here. The Raptors play their starters a lot more than plenty of other teams. FVV averages 38.4 minutes per game. When looking for edges in these weird contests, I like guys who will not be fatigued should they go deeper into the contest. FVV has played a ton, shoots a ton and is shooting it very well this season. I am on FVV at +500 to win the 3-point contest.

NBA Record 2021-2022
NBA Record 35-35 50%
College Record 2-2 50%
Hoops Combined Record 37-37 50%
Hoops Parlay Record   8-18 +594
Hoops Odds Boosts 39-58 +1676
Hoops Player Props 6-11 -435
NBA Model Premium Plays 29-38 43.28%
NBA Model 399-369 51.95%

This is the last day before a week off for the NBA All-Star Break! Sometimes these nights can be weird. With a week of rest on the horizon, some teams may do odd things or have people sit. Just be aware!

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

NBA Model Plays
MIA -5
WAS +4.5 (Premium)
DAL -2.5
PHI +6.5
HOU +10.5

*If two games or more reach a certain level, we will label them premium plays in model. The record at bottom will be updated to note we may have more than one premium play per day from the computer model.

Basketball Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
SGP Mystery Profit Boost (DK)
25% for me.

Free $10 SGP on FD for the TNT game.

Embiid to score 30+ with 12+ rebounds and 2+ made 3’s +392 with boost (DK)
This is a boost, but what you really need is for Embiid to make two threes. That is the sticking point. He is favored to get to the other marks. I can make the same parlay on FD for +356. This is not large enough to make me have to bet this boost. Pass.



Embiid to record 45+ points and rebounds +105 (DK)
Embiid’s is set to 43.5. This is about what the price should be. It is not much of a boost at all. Pass.


Bam and LaMelo to record 70+ combined points/assists/rebounds +100 (DK)
DK combined trash again.
LaMelo is set to 34.5.
Bam is set to 38.5. So yes, this adds up to 73 and it appears it is a solid number for this boost. I would rather parlay players to go over their props separately, for a much larger payout. Pass for me.

Emiid to score 10+ +100 (FOX)
You should bet the max here. It is free money.

LaMelo/Luka/Giannis all 23+ points each +230 (FOX)
LaMelo’s prop is set to 20.5.
Luka’s prop is set to 30.5.
Giannis’s prop is set to 30.5.
This should pay roughly +178. This is basically a wager on LaMelo to get there at +230. The other two are expected to far exceed. LaMelo has been hovering around this number the last few games. I am in. The Hornets game has a higher total for a game where the Miami Heat are playing. I am leaning into that and this boost.

CHA/BRK/Mil to all win +475 (Fox)
This should pay +488. This also features a dog. Pass.

NBA
WAS +4.5
PHI +6.5
This is such a great bounce back spot after the Sixers got crushed the other night.

Let’s Get Weird

NBA Record 2021-2022
NBA Record 33-35 48.52%
College Record 2-2 50%
Hoops Combined Record 35-37 48.61%
Hoops Parlay Record   8-18 +594
Hoops Odds Boosts 38-57 +1676
Hoops Player Props 6-11 -435
NBA Model Premium Plays 28-38 42.42%
NBA Model 396-367 51.90%

This is the last large slate before the All-Star Break. There are six teams on a back-to-back tonight including Atlanta, Boston, Indiana, Memphis, Minnesota, and Phoenix. Ja Morant sat last night and his status is unknown. Boston lost Marcus Smart, Derrick White is assumed to start. Minnesota lost Anthony Edwards and it would make sense for him to sit, since this is their last game before break. Lastly, FVV is questionable, meaning even the books do not know what to do with the Toronto/Minnesota game making it almost a pick at the moment.

The one thing I do know is that while Zach LaVine is out DDR is going to continue to cook. Now, the Bulls get the Kings and the game has a very high 232.5-point total. DDR has been above 30+ in his last seven games. DDR has score 35+ in his last six games. I think you see where this is going. I am on DDR to go over 32.5. I am on DDR to score 35+. I am on DDR to score 40+. It is possible that DDR and the Bulls game is my SGP on DK with my boost.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

NBA Model Plays
ATL -5
NYK -4.5
IND -1
BOS -12.5
CHI -5.5
OKC +7.5
MEM -11.5
MIN +2
PHO -15
DEN +5.5
UTA -4.5

*If two games or more reach a certain level, we will label them premium plays in model. The record at bottom will be updated to note we may have more than one premium play per day from the computer model.

Basketball Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
Mystery SGP Profit Boost (DK)
I got 100% Max addition of $500, which is lame. Because of the restriction, I may do something more realistic.

Jokic and Curry to combine for 20+ assists +450 (DK)
DK, still loving the combined boosts.
Jokic’s prop is set to 8.5.
Curry’s prop is set to 6.5.
Both of their props are juiced toward the over.
You can find a way better parlay than this boost.
Jokic over 8.5 and Curry over 8.5 pays +450.
Jokiv over 10.5 and Curry over 8.5 pays +800. That as you can see is much better than this boosts. Plus, you will need something like this anyway to win the boost. Pass.



Seth Curry and Andre Drummond to combine for 30+ points +170 (DK)
Curry’s prop is set to 16.5.
Drummond’s prop is set to, well there is not one listed. I am passing. Again, just parlay these instead of the combined boosts.

Jokic and Curry to each score 25+ points +280 (FD)
Jokic and Curry to each score 25+ points +290 (Barstool)
Jokic’s prop is set to 25.5.
Curry’s prop is set to 24.5.
This parlay should pay +210.
This is right on the border as both guys are expected in the area. The last time they played, it was an ugly slow game. I kind of think that repeats. I am out on this. It is very close, and it is a boost. Yet, I sense this stay lower scoring. Pass.

NYK/MEM/MIN to all win +200 (FOX)
This parlay should pay +259. Minnesota is a small dog. I am not backing the Knicks on the ML again for a little while, or until RJ Barrett returns. Pass.

BRK/PHO/GSW to all win +335 (Barstool)
This should pay +309. The Nets are a dog and well, I cannot back this Nets team as a dog currently. I am out.

DDR 30+ and Bulls to win +130 (Barstool)
This should pay -105. I am in on this. I love DDR tonight, as you know. The Bulls should win as well.

NBA
DDR over 32.5 points +100 (DK)
DDR 35+ +136 (FD)
DDR 40+ +330 (FD)

Let’s Get Weird
Ready to throw away a few dollars?
I made the following $10 wagers. Yes $10. I know it is so tiny however, the payout is below. In all three games, the players are highly involved. They have all had a triple-double before besides DDR. The minutes are there, the usage is there, the games should be close. This is the best way to use a free bet or bonus dollars.
To record a triple-double parlay
Kuzma/Murray/DDR $10 to win $26,350 (FD)

To record a triple-double parlay
Kuzma/DDR/Giddey $10 to win $50,375 (FD)

NBA Record 2021-2022
NBA Record 33-35 48.52%
College Record 2-2 50%
Hoops Combined Record 35-37 48.61%
Hoops Parlay Record   8-16 +794
Hoops Odds Boosts 37-57 +1556
Hoops Player Props 4-10 -685
NBA Model Premium Plays 28-38 42.42%
NBA Model 392-360 52.12%

I love the seven game slates. They seem perfect to me. Tonight, the Bucks are on a back-to-back and Giannis sat last night. Ja Morant is also questionable. The Heat have people on the injury list as they always do. New look and reinvigorated Pelicans are also on a back-to-back and the Clippers are on a back-to-back.

The total in the Hornets/T-Wolves game is completely insane at 245. Both teams play very fast and well, defense might be lacking. This is an interesting game to target for SGP’s.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

NBA Model Plays
BOS -3
DAL +4
CLE +1
IND +12.5
MEM -4.5
CHA +6
PHO -13

*If two games or more reach a certain level, we will label them premium plays in model. The record at bottom will be updated to note we may have more than one premium play per day from the computer model.

Basketball Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
$10 risk free SGP (DK). You get a $10 free bet if it loses. Do this. It is free!
Here we go!
Made 3’s Rozier 3+/Beverly 1+/Bridges 1+/Ball 2+/Oubre 2+/KAT 1+/Edwards 3+/ Edwards 20+/Russell 15+/ KAT 20+/Ball over 20.5/KAT 10+ Rebounds/Ball over 6.5 assists +3000.

25% Profit Boost on an SGP PHI/BOS (DK)
They are really trying to make us creatures of habit by giving us boosts and such in SGP’s.

CP3 and Booker to combine for 60+ points and assists +135 (DK)
There we go DK! Give me that combined boosts I hate so much.
CP’s combo is set to 26.5.
Booker’s is set to 30.5.
Yes, just parlay their overs if you want. This game may blowout. Pass.



Tatum and Embiid to combine for 60+ points +140 (DK)
Combined. UGH.
Embiid’s prop is set to 31.5.
Tatum’s prop is set to 26.5.
I would rather parlay them to both go over at +235 instead of this boost. Pass for me.

Embiid to score 20+ Points +100 (FOX)
Embiid’s prop is set to 31.5. He also always scores on the Celtics. He is -7000 to score 20+. Bet whatever max they will let you.

BOS/CLE/MEM to all win +450 (Fox)
All of these teams are small favorites. It should pay +392. This is a boost, but if you liked these three teams before you say this boost, go ahead. If you did not, then there is no need. I am out.

NBA
PHO -13
This is a road back-to-back for the Clippers against a rested Suns teams. This feels like a 20+ point win.

Let’s Get Weird

NBA Record 2021-2022
NBA Record 33-34 49.25%
College Record 2-2 50%
Hoops Combined Record 35-36 49.29%
Hoops Parlay Record   8-16 +794
Hoops Odds Boosts 37-56 +1656
Hoops Player Props 4-10 -685
NBA Model Premium Plays 28-38 42.42%
NBA Model 388-358 52.01%

We are down to one major sport to focus on and therefor I can provide some more information. The Bulls are missing some key players and the Spurs made some trade deadline moves as well. That is the game I am targeting for my SGP that is free tonight. In terms of the rest of the league, there are several very large spreads. That means tonight is a great night to lose a money line parlay. I am playing some props from this game as well!

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

NBA Model Plays
DET +4
OKC +10
SAC -2
POR +15
TOR -3
CHI -3.5
ORL +11
UTA -14.5
GSW -5.5

*If two games or more reach a certain level, we will label them premium plays in model. The record at bottom will be updated to note we may have more than one premium play per day from the computer model.

Basketball Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
Steph/Mills/Fournier to all make 3+ Threes +214 (FD)
Mills’s prop is set to 3.5 and the under is juiced.
Fournier’s prop is set to 3.5 and the under is juiced.
Curry’s prop is set to 3.5 and the over is heavily juiced.
This should pay +141. This is a boost and you can play it. I am just never wagering any money on Evan Fournier doing much of anything. Pass for me.

$10 SGP (Refunded as a free bet on DK)
I will be playing this and will post what I do!

Bet $25 and get a 100% NBA Profit boost (DK)
Do this. Get the boost and use it!

Hart to score 20+ +300 (DK)
Hart’s prop is set to 15.5.
Hart is +250 on FD to score 20+. Therefore, this is a boost, but they could be blown out and who knows how the minutes will shake out. Pass for me.


Steph and Klay to combine for 8+ made 3’s +185 (DK)
Here we go with the combined.
Curry’s prop is set to 3.5 and the over is heavily juiced.
Klay’s prop is set to 2.5 and the over is juiced.
You can parlay them to go over their prop for +165. That is not bad considering it is short of the number needed for this boost by two. I am passing. I always pass on combined boosts.



DDR to record 36+ points +235 (DK)
DDR is +138 to score 35+ on FD. This is a solid boost and I think he crushes tonight. I am in.

CHI/NOP/DEN to all win +320 (Fox)
Spot the dog time on Fox. The Pelicans are home dogs tonight. This should pay +345. This is an easy pass.

Murray and DDR to score 25+ +240 (Barstool)
Murray’s prop is set to 22.5.
DDR’s is set to 32.5.
This should pay +175. Murray has been playing so well and scoring. DDR as you know has also been crushing it. I am in. This game has a massive total of 234.

NBA
DDR over 32.5 Points -106 (FD)
Murray over 22.5 points -102 (FD)
Murray to Record a triple double +330 (DK)

Let’s Get Weird
GSW/UTA/DEN/MIL/NYK ML Parlay +126 (DK)

NBA Record 2021-2022
NBA Record 33-34 49.25%
College Record 2-2 50%
Hoops Combined Record 35-36 49.29%
Hoops Parlay Record   8-15 +894
Hoops Odds Boosts 36-54 +1521
Hoops Player Props 3-8 -580
NBA Model Premium Plays 28-38 42.42%
NBA Model 384-354 52.03%

I feel like the Rams should have won that game easily. OBJ gets hurt. Blanton gets hurt. The Rams were throwing to people I had never heard of. Stafford threw two picks. One of which was directly because of OBJ being out of the game. The Rams botched a snap on an extra point. Think about this in totality. The Bengals won the turnover battle 2-0, had a special teams blunder work in their favor, held their opponent to two yards per carry. Yet, they lost. I believe if OBJ does not get hurt, the Rams win easily. When the Rams were down in the fourth quarter, I live bet them at +3.5 and on the money line at +140. I thought they would just need one drive and would win. The Bengals offense was cooked and you could see it. That is exactly what happened.

The Bengals got the best start possible in the second half. They got a gift non-call on that offensive pass interference TD to Higgins, and then picked Stafford the following play. Did I mention how many things went the Bengals way? After the Stafford pick the Bengals would never score again. The Bengals lived on random big plays that happened throughout the playoffs, but could not muster anymore against the Rams defense. I thought the Rams defensive line would be the difference and they were, which helped the under come in. Every sack prop not only won, but also won easily as the Bengals offensive line could not stop the Aaron Donald and the Rams.

I ended up going 10-8 on props for the game. Included in that was OBJ first td at +900. Obviously, that made sure I had a very nice night. That plus live betting the Rams late, gave me a nice close to the NFL season. I also went 3-1 on odds boosts. Overall, this was a profitable game.

The dark times are ahead as we turn our full attention to NBA. Of course, we will continue to dabble in PGA and college basketball as the NCAA tourney and the Masters are on the horizon. I would like to add baseball, but who knows when, or if they even play this season. I love the NBA, but nothing is like the entire NFL season. Thanks for joining us and reading this season.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

NFL Computer Model
Overall 138-146 48.59%
Playoffs 7-6 53.84%
Platinum 5-9 35.71%
Premium 28-29 49.12%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 33-38 46.47%

Our Plays
NFL
Overall 33-28 54.09%
Playoffs 7-7 50%
NFL Props 13-8 +1285
NFL Odds Boosts 23-51 -1165
NFL Teasers and Parlays 3-3 +267

College Football
Overall 8-1 88.88%
College Odds Boosts 3-1 +200
College Teasers and Parlays 1-1 +154

Combined
Overall 41-30 57.74%
Odds Boosts 23-50 -965
Teasers and Parlays 4-3 +521

(I will update more throughout the day as the sites post them!)

This is it. We have one football game left. Lame. I hate having just one game. I much prefer a random week during the season with 16 games. Either way, we are here. So, how do I organize this? Do I tell you my bets by book? Do I tell you them by how the game will go? There are a lot of ways to overwhelm bettors for this game. There are so many wagers and they are all not that easy to find. Some wagers are not even available on all books. I will do my best to list every wager I have and will make. I will update this article throughout the weekend.

First, how does this game go? I believe it will start very slowly. I think both teams will have some nerves and the defenses will play well early. After the first quarter, I think the Rams defensive line will begin to dominate the game. The Titans had turned the ball over multiple times, sacked Joe Burrow nine times, played awfully, yet had the ball with three minutes left in plus territory to go and win the game. They failed. The Chiefs ran all over the Bengals, held a massive lead, yet, they also failed. In both cases, the Bengals were run on and Joe Burrow was pressured. In both games, in the final minutes the home team had a chance to go and win the game. (Insert Breaking Bad “He can’t keep getting away with this!” GIF)

At some point this is going to catch up with the Bengals. Their lack of pass blocking can be masked when a team does not have a great pass rush like the Chiefs. The Titans defensive line is solid and they dominated against the Bengals. The Rams defensive line is even better. What will the Bengals do to protect Joe Burrow? Will they keep in an extra blocker? Will they double Aaron Donald? Does any of that matter if the Rams can pressure with only four pass rushers? I think the Rams will get significant pressure with only four, dropping seven into coverage.

Last year at this time, I dismissed the Chiefs offensive line problems in the Super Bowl. I wrongly assumed Andy Reid would come up with a plan to get the ball to his playmakers and the Bucs defense would not dominate the beat-up Chiefs offensive line. I was wrong. Saying a game will flip because of a defensive line is not sexy. The Bengals are the hot team with offensive weapons people are excited about. The Bengals appear to be a very public dog. The public is not thinking about the Bengals offensive line and the issues the Rams will cause. If we assume the Rams get pressure with four, Jalen Ramsey will take away whatever wide receiver is on his side of the field, which should allow the other six defenders to bottle up the other Bengals skill players.

In the end this will be an ugly low scoring game, where the Rams defense dominates. I Think the first quarter is ugly and could end up with a 0-0 score. I believe the Rams will slowly grind their way to a victory. The Rams have been there before; they know the circus around the Super Bowl. The Rams are playing in their home stadium; their routine has not changed much at all. They will be comfortable in their surroundings and the odd nature of the Super Bowl. Sunday night the Rams will win and cover. I have bet the Rams -4 and Under 48.5 points.

Rams 24 Bengals 10

Now, it is time to capitalize on how I think the game will go. I will leave the odds boosts in the section where they are. These are the wagers I am making that are not boosts. I believe the first quarter will feature a lack of scoring, unless the Bengals turn it over early.

Before I mention all of my wagers, do not bet any skill position player for MVP. You are better off building an SGP where that player does well. You can use alternate lines as well to get there but it will pay more than a straight MVP wager.

MY Wagers
Points scored in first ten Minutes NO +300 (DK)
No score first 7 minutes +105 (DK)
No score first 5 minutes -190 (DK)
1^st Touchdown on or after 10:00 Elapsed Yes -110 (DK)
1^st score on or after 6:00 Elapsed Yes -135
Either Team score a TD on their first drive No -140 (DK)
Will there be a scoreless Quarter Yes +330 (FD)
0-0 First Quarter +1000 (FD)
Game tied after first quarter YES +400 (FD)
Burrow under 63.5 Passing Yards 1^st Quarter -135
Rams over 3.5 Sacks +105 (DK)
Total Game sacks over 5.5 +110 (DK)
Leonard Floyd to record a sack +130 (DK)
Bengals Under 3.5 points 1^st Quarter -160 (DK)
Under 9.5 1^st Quarter -120 (DK)
Lowest Scoring Quarter 1^st +160 (DK)
Bengals 1^st drive result Punt -145 (FD)
Rams -6.5 +120 (DK)
Rams -4.5
Under 48.5

Opening kickoff to to be returned -120 (DK)

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

Computer Model Plays
Platinum


Premium



Regular Plays
LAR -4.5

I will update the odds boosts this weekend, when they are posted!

Football Odds Boost You Should Consider Betting
Fan Duel
$20 free SGP (FD)

I am playing the OBJ boost. Obviously I am on the rams so the Bengals boost is an easy pass. Obj’s prop is at 63.5.

Draft Kings
Kupp Anytime td +100 (-190)

Rams to score first +200

Get a refund up to $20 if your first score bet loses, but player scores a TD in game.

$10 free SGP (DK)

Rams SGP Boost
Rams win/Stafford 290+ Yards and OBJ to score a TD +600
This should pay like +450. I incorrectly, had this at +500. At this price I am a lot more interested. Stafford only needs to go over by seven yards. The entire thing is predicated on OBJ scoring really. I am in now!

Fox Bet
Burrow and Stafford to throw 1+ pick +300

I do not like any of the other boosts on Fox Bet. I wish I could bet the No, side.

Barstool Sportsbook
Reminder, never bet with barstool (Their employee boosts) and do not bet timed boosts for a quarter or half and needing to score.

NFL Computer Model
Overall 138-145 48.76%
Playoffs 7-5 58.33%
Platinum 5-9 35.71%
Premium 28-29 49.12%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 33-38 46.47%

Our Plays
NFL
Overall 32-27 54.23%
Playoffs 6-6 50%
NFL Props 3-0 100%
NFL Odds Boosts 20-50 -1515
NFL Teasers and Parlays 3-3 +267

College Football
Overall 8-1 88.88%
College Odds Boosts 3-1 +200
College Teasers and Parlays 1-1 +154

Combined
Overall 40-29 57.97%
Odds Boosts 23-50 -1215
Teasers and Parlays 4-3 +521