If there is every a time to fade a model, it is week one. The data is relying on some new things, but plenty of old information. You can tell that the model will have a lean when we know things have changed. In this case, the model feels the Patriots should be favored by three in Miami. We know, the Dolphins are trending up and the Patriots have had nothing by negative comments from their beat writers who have been at every practice during camp. With that being said, be careful out there. While I will post my contest selections later in the weekend, please make sure you understand what lines you have in your contests. As astute sports bettors, or anyone who can read, getting +3.5 is slightly better than getting +2.5 points. I am looking at you Jaguars. While I am not on any shows or podcasts this year, unless I decide to revive my own, I will try to break down how I see the games going this weekend, with my wagers.
I mentioned yesterday that I had bet the Texans +8.5, before this week. That number is long gone. While I still do like Houston +7 is much less appealing. Some contests have this game at 8.5, some at just seven. If this goes back up I think it is a play, but not at just +7.
Why is Washington favored over anyone? The defense is terrible and well, we know about the QB position. Am I going to back Trevor Lawrence on the road in week one? YES! I am all over JAX +2.5 and the JAX ML at +115. The Commanders secondary is horrendous and I believe the Jags are a surprise team this season. I think the Jags put up points and we know Washington was ready to ditch Antonio Gibson, only now needing to use him plenty week one. I get to wager against a team with Carson Wentz, playing a RB they do not like who has a defense missing its best pass rusher, with a weak secondary. We have seen this time and again, a disaster gets a competent coach and they improve by 3-5 wins. That happens in Jacksonville this year and it starts Sunday.
I think everyone is talking about the fact we have ten road favorites this weekend. One of the numbers I do not understand is the Saints -5.5 on the road. Jameis Winston and Dennis Allen are laying more than a field goal. This is a very strange number as I thought it should be three, but the model feels where it is currently is accurate. I think the Falcons will score and make this interesting. This will be a close game and the Saints need Winston and all the weapons to be healthy, which they may be for the first time in forever. I am taking the home dog on Atlanta +5.5.
HOMER ALERT! Oh, you have all left the Steelers for dead. The win total expects them to finish with under nine wins. This is insane. This number smells big time. The Bengals crushed the Steelers twice last year. The Bengals are everyone’s darling with their improved offensive line. Why is this not a touchdown? It feels like the books expect the public to come in on Cincinnati. Once a few key defensive players were hurt, the Steelers could not stop the run last year. They also had a QB who literally could not move and did not want to be hit. The offense will be vastly better and the defense is going to be good. Last year week one the Steelers won in Buffalo, this year, they lose a close one to the Bengals. I will take the Steelers +6.5. (If Diontae Johnson does not play, I am out.)
I am mad at myself for missing the Dolphins -3. I think the Pats will be bad and the Dolphins much improved. The Pats have so few weapons it is bizarre. I am still thinking about the Dolphins at -3.5, especially in contests, but wish I had a better number.
The Bears are going to be bad, but Trey Lance starting on the road without George Kittle (Maybe), seems like laying a touchdown is too much. I cannot take the Bears though and will not have the Niners either. I am running away. Speaking of running, I do like Elijah Mitchell this weekend.
The Hard Knocks darlings seem like they have become too public this week and for the season. I am skipping this game as well. The Eagles ran all over the Lions last year and everyone likes them to win the NFC East now. What a wild two weeks it has been for Eagles sleeper buzz. I am passing here.
It seems like the Ravens may have a weird combination of running backs Sunday against the Jets. I want Dobbins to play. The Jets have no offensive line, an immobile QB and more questions than answers. I think I have watched this game before when the Ravens went to Miami a few years ago and destroyed the Dolphins week one. I think Baltimore puts up some big numbers since they are mostly healthy compared to last year. I am on Baltimore -7. This is more of a bet against the Jets offense and on Lamar than anything.
The Baker Mayfield bowl is a game I have no desire to watch or bet on. This number has moved in favor of the Panthers, despite the fact the Browns have a significantly better roster in totality. Brissett is not good at all, but maybe the Browns can run it a ton. I need to see these two play before investing any dollars. Pass for me.
Is Tennessee secretly tanking? They drafted a QB, shipped away their star WR and seem to have the least amount of weapons they have had in years. Yet, the Titans seem to always find a way. Speaking of no weapons, what wide receivers will the Giants actually have week one? I know some sharps are on the Giants in this spot, but Daniel Jones on the road without anyone to throw to seems like a bad idea to me. Conversely, we may look back and say how could the Titans be more than a field goal favorite over anyone at this point. Pass for me.
I want to bet Kirk Cousins as a home dog this week. I really do. It feels too scary to go against Aaron Rodgers. If the Vikings are going to be good this year and throw it around a ton, this could be interesting. Yet, I will wait a week and see how both teams look. I am out here.
The Chiefs number keeps growing and growing. This was KC -3.5 a few days ago, but we are at -6 now. I mean Rondale Moore is important, but this many points? I am kidding of course. I rather want to go the other direction and the home dog getting a ton of points. I hate Kliff and think he could be fired at the end of the season if this goes badly. I am passing for now, but if this gets to seven, I will probably find my way to the Cardinals, god help me.
The Chargers are ascending, as we know. Still, they will have no home-field advantage as we expect at least half the stadium to be Raider fans. I like the Raiders a little, but they have no made my wagers section just yet. This is a candidate for a contest selection at +3.5. Finding five games can be very difficult some weeks.
The Bucs at Cowboys is a game I am very excited to watch and play some showdown. I have no lean either way. Both have key injuries on offense and I am not sure what to make of either team. It seems like the home dog is the way to go, but as of now, I have no play.
Who in their right mind is taking the Seahawks Monday night? I want to. The public will be on Denver, as you would expect. Check back on Monday as I may jump on the home dog here. I want this to get over seven. Just like the Bengals game, they are keeping this at an interesting number.
That is all for now. I am going to try to hit on every game this year, some games I will say a lot, others I will say very little. Lastly, please be careful parlaying road favorites this weekend.
Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!
Survivor Pick
Baltimore
Future Wagers
Steelers over 7.5 wins +110
I know it is now -105. I bet this weeks ago. I am such a homer. However, the Steelers do not finish under .500. An 8-9 record is enough to cash here. If Mitch is bad, Kenny is going to take over and be good. I am slightly biased when it comes to the Steelers, Pitt and Kenny Pickett. This is the perfect storm.
Computer Model
Platinum
None
Premium
NE +3.5
PHI -4
IND -7
ARZ +6
SEA +6.5
Regular
LAR +2.5
NO -5.5
SF -7
PIT +6.5
BAL -7
CLE +2.5
GB +1.5
WAS -2.5
TEN -5.5
LVR +3.5
DAL +2.5
NFL Odds Boosts
Get up by 7 and Win (DK)This is for the Thursday night game. Max Wager $50 and it must be a money line wager.
Get up by 10 and win (DK)
This is for all of the other games. Max wager $50 and it must be a money line wager.
No sweat bet (FD)
$25 Max bet, refunded as free bets.
PHI/SF/NO to all win +200 (Fox)
This should pay +187, so it is a boost. Would you like to parlay three road favorites in the NFL? Good luck with that.
College Football Odds Boots
CFB
NFL
JAX +2.5
PITT +6.5
ATL +5.5
BAL -7
2022 NFL Computer Model
Overall
Platinum
Premium
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium)
2022 Our Plays
NFL
Overall
NFL Props
NFL Odds Boosts
NFL Teasers and Parlays 0-1 -100
College Football
Overall 2-2 50%
College Odds Boosts
College Teasers and Parlays
Combined
Overall 2-2 50%
Odds Boosts
Teasers and Parlays 0-1 -100
Win The Weekends 