Sunday Morning Update
Clearly, I switched my survivor play. I am breaking my no road team rules and going with the Bengals.

In terms if my bets and contest, I have made my choices.
Contests
CIN -4.5
MIA +5.5
WAS +6.5
IND +6.5
JAX +7.5

The Jags are not exactly a free square, but if/when Herbert is ruled out this line will drop even more. If he plays I am more than fine with a team getting this many points against a banged up quarterback.

My Bets
I had Miami from the other day, I have added the Colts at +5.5 and WAS +6.5. Give me all the home dogs!

There you have it, three sides, my contest plays and of course the Bengals in survivor. I also tweeted my to score a TD parlay, since DK is giving everyone a boost, but my max is so small that they allow on those.

I warned you all about the Steelers. I am wagering zero dollars on them until Kenny Pickett is the new starting QB. All of them complaints about the defense fading late against the run fail to address that the offense is awful. Of course, your defense is tired when it is on the field the entire game. Is that an exaggeration? The time of possession stats, exist and prove it is true. I could go on and on about the Steelers offense, but simply put without TJ Watt, the defense is average. I know, it is shocking. It is like finding out the Warriors are not as good without Steph Curry. I mean who knew. Anyway, on to the weekend.

I am 7-3 in my picks contests and looking to keep headed in the correct direction. There are some clear traps out there. The following are road favorites that seem like public plays: Eagles, Chiefs, Bills, Ravens, and Bengals. You can push back that no public bettor is going to be on the Bengals, which is fair. The public likes to come back to teams who pay them off, like the Bills. One of these teams is going to lose for sure. The one game that should send up some red flags for sure is the Ravens. All the tickets are on Baltimore, the bet percentages are out of whack as well, yet, the line persists. The books have chosen a side as they often do. The books do not want even action, they are happy to take a side. Here, they are on the Pats. I do not base all my decisions on public/professional money, but it is something else to monitor and consider when making wagers.

The first game of the late this week is the Raiders giving points in Tennessee. I have no clue here. The Raiders are better, the Titans seem to be tanking, yet, and this line is bizarre. Pass.

The Bengal’s have to win Sunday. The Jets got a fluky win last week, but do not have the pass rush like the Steelers and Cowboys. I think the Bengals get healthy. I am firing up a Joey B stack and may include the Bengals in my final five in picks contest. This number is now six, which only 4.5 in plenty on contests.

The Bills coming off a Monday night win are playing in Miami. While it is not full proof either, both teams from week one Monday night football lost against the spread in week two. Rest advantage is real people. I am more than happy to be on the home dog Dolphins here. The Bills may be missing 2-3 starters in the defensive backfield. Miami has two wide receivers you may have heard of. I am on the Dolphins +5.5.

Everyone is ready to crown the Eagles as the best team in the NFC, but here we go with another road divisional game after a Monday night game. Just like the Bills and Dolphins, we have a home dog in the same spot. I know the Commanders looked horrid last week, but I do like this spot. I have Washington +6.5 on my short list. The Eagles secondary looked fantastic last week, but there were options and dropped passes by the Vikings.

I want to take Matt Ryan and the points. I am worry he might be pure dust at this point. I need some more injury information here, but man the home dog Colts look enticing. Notice how the Chiefs have received a ton of tickets on them this week, yet the line keeps falling slowly. We are down to +5.5 after a point drop in the line. The Colts are on my short list.

The Bears are favored and both teams are terrible. I do like D Montgomery Burns in DFS. Excellent. This game is awful. Pass.

I have no idea on the Saints and Panthers here. The Panthers are on the path to fire their coach and rebuild, again. The Saints if healthy seem like the correct side, but laying points on the road with Jameis is not something I am interested in.

The World is on the Ravens. The Ravens secondary is inured and struggled against the Dolphins. We know the books are taking a side here and happy to do so. The Pats are on my short list.

The Vikings defense has been awful and scheme is questionable at best. The Lions offense has been fantastic. This game has a large total at 52.5 points and I am all about the Kirk Cousins stack this week. I am passing on this game after having some initial interest in the Vikings -5.5.

Justin Herbert appears on the path to play and rebound from their loss against the Chiefs. The Jags are not terrible and think they keep this game close. I have the Jags on my short list at +7. I also have the Chargers penciled in for my survivor pick.  This week is insanely ugly. The Vikings and Chargers are your best options. I want to pull the trigger on the Bengal’s but I find myself hesitating.

Green Bay and Tampa Bay is also very ugly. The total is insanely low as neither team has any weapons to assists their aging quarterbacks. I kind of like the Bucs, but no strong lean. Pass.

The Cardinals went from dead to winning in a half, but find themselves as home dogs for the second time in three weeks. I refuse to take this Rams offense laying points on the road. I refuse to take Kliff unless I have to. Pass on this game. I am here for more Greg Dortch though.

The Falcons are feisty and get to play the worst team in the NFL in Seattle. Atlanta can score, while the Seahawks struggle. I want to be on the Falcons here, but it is still a dome team traveling outdoors as a small dog.

Everyone is ready to light the Broncos coaching staff on fire for their mistakes. They have been bad, but all the sudden there is now zero faith in Denver. The Niners love has gone insane, last week no one liked them, but we did. I get to take the Broncos as a home dog this week. The value is there for Denver. I have the Broncos on my short list.

After all that I have bet one game this week to this point in the Dolphins +5.5. I will update and add my plays as I make them and of course tweet out my plays in my contests.

I wanted to add a little DFS section as I used to discuss on the Numberball Rundown show the last two years.

Stacks I like
Cousins/JJ/Irv/Amon RA
Joe B/Chase/Higgins/Carter or Wilson
Hurts/AJB/Samuel
Allen/Diggs/X/Waddle
Tua/Hill/Waddle/Diggs

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

Survivor Pick
Week 3 Cincinnati
Week 2 San Francisco (WIN)
Week 1 Baltimore (WIN)

Computer Model
Platinum
None

Premium
NE +2.5
CIN -4.5
BUF -5.5
IND +6.5
SEA -1

Regular
PIT +4.5
TEN +2.5
WAS +6.5
CHI -2.5
NO -2.5
MIN -5.5
LAC -7
GB +1
ARZ +3.5
DEN +1.5

NFL Odds Boosts
Risk Free SGP (DK)

College Football Odds Boots

CFB

NFL
MIA +5.5

If like me you have some free bets, or want to fire on these home dogs, here is a fun 6-point teaser I am going to play.
NE +8.5
MIA +11.5
IND +11.5
WAS +12.5
DEN +7.5
Pays +333

2022 NFL Computer Model
Overall 13-18 41.93%
Platinum 0-0
Premium 4-6 40%
Recommended Plays 4-6 (Platinum + Premium) 40%

2022 Our Plays
NFL
Overall 8-3 72.72%
NFL Props 0-1 0%
NFL Odds Boosts 1-2 33.33% -100
NFL Teasers and Parlays 0-2 -200

College Football
Overall 2-2 50%
College Odds Boosts
College Teasers and Parlays

Combined
Overall 10-5 66.66%
Odds Boosts 1-2 33.33% -100
Teasers and Parlays 0-2 -200

I warned you all about the Steelers. I am wagering zero dollars on them until Kenny Pickett is the new starting QB. All of them complaints about the defense fading late against the run fail to address that the offense is awful. Of course, your defense is tired when it is on the field the entire game. Is that an exaggeration? The time of possession stats, exist and prove it is true. I could go on and on about the Steelers offense, but simply put without TJ Watt, the defense is average. I know, it is shocking. It is like finding out the Warriors are not as good without Steph Curry. I mean who knew. Anyway, on to the weekend.

I am 7-3 in my picks contests and looking to keep headed in the correct direction. There are some clear traps out there. The following are road favorites that seem like public plays: Eagles, Chiefs, Bills, Ravens, and Bengals. You can push back that no public bettor is going to be on the Bengals, which is fair. The public likes to come back to teams who pay them off, like the Bills. One of these teams is going to lose for sure. The one game that should send up some red flags for sure is the Ravens. All the tickets are on Baltimore, the bet percentages are out of whack as well, yet, the line persists. The books have chosen a side as they often do. The books do not want even action, they are happy to take a side. Here, they are on the Pats. I do not base all my decisions on public/professional money, but it is something else to monitor and consider when making wagers.

The first game of the late this week is the Raiders giving points in Tennessee. I have no clue here. The Raiders are better, the Titans seem to be tanking, yet, and this line is bizarre. Pass.

The Bengal’s have to win Sunday. The Jets got a fluky win last week, but do not have the pass rush like the Steelers and Cowboys. I think the Bengals get healthy. I am firing up a Joey B stack and may include the Bengals in my final five in picks contest. This number is now six, which only 4.5 in plenty on contests.

The Bills coming off a Monday night win are playing in Miami. While it is not full proof either, both teams from week one Monday night football lost against the spread in week two. Rest advantage is real people. I am more than happy to be on the home dog Dolphins here. The Bills may be missing 2-3 starters in the defensive backfield. Miami has two wide receivers you may have heard of. I am on the Dolphins +5.5.

Everyone is ready to crown the Eagles as the best team in the NFC, but here we go with another road divisional game after a Monday night game. Just like the Bills and Dolphins, we have a home dog in the same spot. I know the Commanders looked horrid last week, but I do like this spot. I have Washington +6.5 on my short list. The Eagles secondary looked fantastic last week, but there were options and dropped passes by the Vikings.

I want to take Matt Ryan and the points. I am worry he might be pure dust at this point. I need some more injury information here, but man the home dog Colts look enticing. Notice how the Chiefs have received a ton of tickets on them this week, yet the line keeps falling slowly. We are down to +5.5 after a point drop in the line. The Colts are on my short list.

The Bears are favored and both teams are terrible. I do like D Montgomery Burns in DFS. Excellent. This game is awful. Pass.

I have no idea on the Saints and Panthers here. The Panthers are on the path to fire their coach and rebuild, again. The Saints if healthy seem like the correct side, but laying points on the road with Jameis is not something I am interested in.

The World is on the Ravens. The Ravens secondary is inured and struggled against the Dolphins. We know the books are taking a side here and happy to do so. The Pats are on my short list.

The Vikings defense has been awful and scheme is questionable at best. The Lions offense has been fantastic. This game has a large total at 52.5 points and I am all about the Kirk Cousins stack this week. I am passing on this game after having some initial interest in the Vikings -5.5.

Justin Herbert appears on the path to play and rebound from their loss against the Chiefs. The Jags are not terrible and think they keep this game close. I have the Jags on my short list at +7. I also have the Chargers penciled in for my survivor pick.  This week is insanely ugly. The Vikings and Chargers are your best options. I want to pull the trigger on the Bengal’s but I find myself hesitating.

Green Bay and Tampa Bay is also very ugly. The total is insanely low as neither team has any weapons to assists their aging quarterbacks. I kind of like the Bucs, but no strong lean. Pass.

The Cardinals went from dead to winning in a half, but find themselves as home dogs for the second time in three weeks. I refuse to take this Rams offense laying points on the road. I refuse to take Kliff unless I have to. Pass on this game. I am here for more Greg Dortch though.

The Falcons are feisty and get to play the worst team in the NFL in Seattle. Atlanta can score, while the Seahawks struggle. I want to be on the Falcons here, but it is still a dome team traveling outdoors as a small dog.

Everyone is ready to light the Broncos coaching staff on fire for their mistakes. They have been bad, but all the sudden there is now zero faith in Denver. The Niners love has gone insane, last week no one liked them, but we did. I get to take the Broncos as a home dog this week. The value is there for Denver. I have the Broncos on my short list.

After all that I have bet one game this week to this point in the Dolphins +5.5. I will update and add my plays as I make them and of course tweet out my plays in my contests.

I wanted to add a little DFS section as I used to discuss on the Numberball Rundown show the last two years.

Stacks I like
Cousins/JJ/Irv/Amon RA
Joe B/Chase/Higgins/Carter or Wilson
Hurts/AJB/Samuel
Allen/Diggs/X/Waddle
Tua/Hill/Waddle/Diggs

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

Survivor Pick
Week 3 LA Chargers (For Now)
Week 2 San Francisco (WIN)
Week 1 Baltimore (WIN)

Computer Model
Platinum
None

Premium
NE +2.5
CIN -4.5
BUF -5.5
IND +6.5
SEA -1

Regular
PIT +4.5
TEN +2.5
WAS +6.5
CHI -2.5
NO -2.5
MIN -5.5
LAC -7
GB +1
ARZ +3.5
DEN +1.5

NFL Odds Boosts
Risk Free SGP (DK)

College Football Odds Boots

CFB

NFL
MIA +5.5

If like me you have some free bets, or want to fire on these home dogs, here is a fun 6-point teaser I am going to play.
NE +8.5
MIA +11.5
IND +11.5
WAS +12.5
DEN +7.5
Pays +333

2022 NFL Computer Model
Overall 13-18 41.93%
Platinum 0-0
Premium 4-6 40%
Recommended Plays 4-6 (Platinum + Premium) 40%

2022 Our Plays
NFL
Overall 8-3 72.72%
NFL Props 0-1 0%
NFL Odds Boosts 1-2 33.33% -100
NFL Teasers and Parlays 0-2 -200

College Football
Overall 2-2 50%
College Odds Boosts
College Teasers and Parlays

Combined
Overall 10-5 66.66%
Odds Boosts 1-2 33.33% -100
Teasers and Parlays 0-2 -200

Thursday night is odd, especially when it is your team. It is no secret I am a Steelers fan and at times may be a little biased towards them. Maybe my good bye to Ben post comes to mind. However, I do not want to risk $1 on the Steelers with Mitch at QB. Will that hold true as kickoff gets closer and my excitement builds, that is always the question. In reality, the Steelers are a solid bet at +4.5. The Browns should be 2-0, but have not exactly been on fire. The Steelers have an exceptional defense that is being wasted because they refuse to turn it over to Kenny Pickett. I get why waiting until next week makes sense, off the mini-bye and the Jets looming. Still, what are they even doing here? What is the goal of the season? Is it to make the playoffs and get ready for the future? I am not sure how Mitchell Trubisky propels them to any of that. When they signed him, I liked it. (As some constantly remind me.) They only had Mason Rudolph under contract and we know he is not the answer. The moment they drafted Kenny it all changed for me.

If they felt Mitch gave them the best chance to score and win, we have yet to see it after two games. The offense has two, TWO, touchdowns. The Jets scored that many in the final two minutes against the Browns Sunday. The Steelers defense has one touchdown. Does Mitch prepare them for the future? Of course not. Why draft a first round QB if you are planning to never use him, no matter what?

What about those rumors that Tomlin promised Mitch can start the entire year. It seems insane Mike Tomlin would do such a thing. Even if he did, so what. After two weeks it is clear it is not working. Maybe, it is because of the elephant in the room named Matt Canada. Is it his offense that is bad, or the QB play? There is an amalgamation of both. Mitch, Canada and Harris have all been bad. Somehow, the offensive line has been average, which is better than expected. I cannot imagine Mike Tomlin looking at Cam Heyward and saying, no matter what Mitch is our guy and Canada’s offense is going to get us there. Frankly, how can he tell any members of the defense that Mitch gives them the best chance to win? Unless, Tomlin is ready to admit selecting Pickett in round one was a colossal mistake. It was not. Taking a running back in round one is a massive failure. Perhaps not as bad as sticking with Mitch after Thursday.

When the Steelers lose Thursday night (They could win, but we know this offense has a hard cap of 24 points and I am being very generous wit that) and the offense is again putrid, what media member will ask the question that needs to be asked? “If Mitch gives the offense the best chance to score and win games, do you regret taking Kenny Pickett in round one?” We know the answer is no, then the follow up is, so Kenny will start next week right? No matter how you slice it, Tomlin cannot have it both ways. Either Mitch is the better player or you regret taking a QB on a team with a veteran defense that is in win now mode or you have to make a change. This is not a rebuilding team. This is a team that is loaded on defense, has fantastic skill position players and a young offensive line that has not been as bad as anticipated.

I have been the biggest Tomlin defender for years, but this has been a dreadful situation. Simply, saying Mitch is the guy only works if he is you know scoring points. By continually starting Mitch, the Steelers have effectively muted both their first and second round picks in the last draft. Throw in taking a running back the previous year in the first round that is missing open holes and you have the recipe for a team that is headed the wrong direction. That much draft capital sitting on the bench, not being targeted and running away from day light makes the Steelers feel like a team without a plan. I knew the post-Ben years may be difficult, but they do not have to be. START KENNY. NOW.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

Survivor Pick
Week 3
Week 2 San Francisco (WIN)
Week 1 Baltimore (WIN)

Computer Model
Platinum
None

Premium

Regular
PIT +4.5

NFL Odds Boosts
TNF No Sweat SGP (FD)
Max $10 and it must be +400 or longer odds. Refund in free bets.

Browns +3.5 +100 (FD)
I know this offer did not go out to everyone, but I am 100% in and taking it if you can.

Freiremuth and Pickens to each have 25+ receiving yards +250 (FD)
25. TWENTY FIVE. Pickens has 2-26. IN TWO GAMES. NO. Can you tell I am mad about Mitch?

DK has the early win promo for the last time.

Risk Free SGP (DK)
Refunded up to $10 if you lose on Thursday.

This game has a 38-point total. Do not but TD props or many overs at all.

College Football Odds Boots

CFB

NFL

2022 NFL Computer Model
Overall 13-18 41.93%
Platinum 0-0
Premium 4-6 40%
Recommended Plays 4-6 (Platinum + Premium) 40%

2022 Our Plays
NFL
Overall 8-3 72.72%
NFL Props 0-1 0%
NFL Odds Boosts 0-2 0%
NFL Teasers and Parlays 0-2 -200

College Football
Overall 2-2 50%
College Odds Boosts
College Teasers and Parlays

Combined
Overall 10-5 66.66%
Odds Boosts 0-2 0%
Teasers and Parlays 0-2 -200

Every week seems to get weirder and weirder. Be careful betting any road favorite. Be careful giving any more than three points as well. Is any lead safe? I ended up going 3-2 and it should have been better. How the Browns -5.5 did not win and cover is baffling. Nick Chubb could have fallen down. The defense could have not been torched by Joe Flacco. Cleveland could have recovered the on-side kick. Pain. I should be 8-2 instead of 7-3 on the season. The computer model bounced back as well for a decent day. No matter what, we are on to next week.

Make sure you are following us on Twitter here so when we post other plays you can follow along.

Tonight we have two games on the docket. One seems like a fantastically fun game of NFC teams that could easily make the NFC title game. The other game feels like a Buffalo romp. If you think about the league entirely right now, outside of Buffalo do you really trust anyone? Maybe, the Chiefs, but after that oh, man it is pretty wild and inconsistent out there. If you do not believe me, go look at survivor pools. I think most are down to only 25-35% of the starting field remaining. Week 2 is not even finished! Of course, we are 2-0 and happily advancing.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

Survivor Pick
Week 2 San Francisco (WIN)
Week 1 Baltimore (WIN)

Computer Model
Platinum
None

Premium

Regular
TEN +10
PHI -2

NFL Odds Boosts
50% SGP+ Boost (DK)
If the book was not winning enough on these, you can combine games to make it even better for the books.

AJ Brown to score +175 (FD)
This is boosted from +120. I mean he certainly had the target share that this could pay off. I am in here. I think Philly plays well and continues to score. The opportunity will be there and AJB will have a chance. I am in.


JJ to score a TD and Vikings to win +280 (FD)
This should pay +218. This is a boost and if you like either side of this, game I think both of these boosts make sense. Jefferson is -110 to score tonight, which is wild for a wide receiver. There is no mathematical reason to skip these boosts.

JJ and AJB to each have 100+ receiving yards +475 (FOX)
JJ’s prop is set to 96.5 and the over is slightly juiced.
AJB’s prop is set to 74.5.
This parlay over on FD pays, +480. This is an easy pass then. A better price exists somewhere else without be labeled a boost. This is why we check and shop around. Pass.

College Football Odds Boots

CFB

NFL
PHI -2.5
This is a great spot for the Eagles. The Vikings are coming off a big win against a rival, but some advanced numbers suggest that the Vikings did not play as well as it would appear. The Eagles had a massive lead and blew it late against the Lions. This line should be three and the computer model agrees. I like the Eagles here to score a lot and take advantage of their solid offensive line.

2022 NFL Computer Model
Overall 12-17 41.37%
Platinum 0-0
Premium 4-6 40%
Recommended Plays 4-6 (Platinum + Premium) 40%

2022 Our Plays
NFL Overall 7-3 70%
NFL Props 0-1 0%
NFL Odds Boosts 0-1 0%
NFL Teasers and Parlays 0-2 -200

College Football Overall 2-2 50%
College Odds Boosts
College Teasers and Parlays

Combined
Overall 9-5 64.28
Odds Boosts 0-1 0%
Teasers and Parlays 0-2 -200

Week 2 is normally when everyone over reacts. People will be saying Trey Lance sucks, the Packers are doomed and various other takes that are wild overreactions to week one. This can affect the betting markets a ton, yet this week it has created some inflated spreads. After last week gave us only a few options for survivor picks, we have tons of options this week. I am looking ahead to teams I may use later in order to eliminate options. Whom I ended up taking may not be that popular, but I love the spot.

I am not sure what to make of the Ravens at this point. They won and covered, but did not look great. The offense is somehow a question again and they suffered more injuries in week one. Miami should have also won by a lot more than they did and struggled at times too. I really want to be on the Ravens here, but maybe Miami’s defense has figured out Lamar like the one they did last year during that Thursday night game. Yet, new coaching staff and I just cannot back Tua on the road. I am passing, on this game, but want to be on the Ravens. I cannot do it.

The Jets looked bad and the Ravens should have won by three touchdowns. People are scared of laying almost a touchdown with Jacoby Brissett, which I clearly understand. The part no is mentioning is how will the Jets score? People want to back Joe Flacco on the road! What is happening here? I am not usually a favorite bettor, but this week has me going an odd direction. I am on the Browns -6. This game will be ugly but the Browns will score enough and win like 28-6. Cleveland is headed for 2-0.

Detroit is favored for the first time in years. It would make sense to take the dog, but Carson Wentz on the road coming off a win, no way. I am passing on this game as you could convince me of anything. Goff throws for 400-yards, sure. Wentz poops his pants and turns it over five times, sure. Pass for me.

This is the only game I bet early this week. I am on Jax +4.5. Matt Ryan looked rough last week and does not seem that different from Carson Wentz. Not a compliment of course. The Jags are not terrible and had some things go badly like two dropped touchdowns including on 4^th down in week one. Despite all that they held the lead with three minutes remaining in week one. The colts go to Florida to die every year and here is the best chance to take a home dog this week. I may lose money on the Jags every week at this rate, but I am headed right back there.

Speaking of teams who always lose in a location, the Bucs are back in New Orleans and the Saints seem to beat the every year. There is some injury concerns with the Saints at this point, but provided they have all their offensive weapons, I will find my way to the Saints +2.5. The Saints defense is good and they shut down Mike Evans every year. The Bucs have no weapons, besides Evans and have an injured offensive line. This is a fantastic spot to take a good defense against a team that is lacking in weapons at the moment. If Julio Jones beats me, then so be it.

The Giants are favored and it seems like people are ready to bet on Baker Mayfield on the road in week two. I hate this game. I am not sure either team is good. I am passing, but there is no way I take Carolina here.

The Steelers are a home dog, but teams that play a full five quarters tend to struggle the next week. (Like you know the Colts, Bengals, and Texans might.) If the defense was healthy and Kenny Pickett was the starter, I would smash this game. As of now, I am passing. The Steelers offense is so bad, yet, so is the Pats. I am going to this game and good god, bet the under.

The Rams should not be favored by double-digits over anyone, but I am not ready to take the Falcons. There is no way the Rams lose this game and start 0-2 at home. Pass on the spread.

All I have heard all week is the Niners are bad. Jimmy G will be the starter soon. They played in crazy conditions. It was still 10-0 Niners when Samuel fumbled against Chicago. Everyone is talking about this game from the perspective of the Niners. This is an awful spot for the Seahawks. This is a road divisional game after a Monday night emotional win. I love San Fran this week. The number keeps dipping slightly and I am waiting to get a better one perhaps Sunday. This being 9.5 in contests is slightly frustrating. In terms of survivor, this is my pick. I want to save others who have better games in the next few weeks. I mean just look at the spreads for next week. We need to save the Bengals. Give me the Niners in survivor and eventually probably against the spread as well, but no pick yet.

This game is dumb. The Bengals are going to beat the Cowboys, but it may be ugly. Passing on this game.

What a fantastic get-right spot for the Broncos. Houston is not great and I think Denver scores a bunch this week and looks like the team they were supposed to be. I mean, if they do not fumble at the goal line twice, they win last week no problem.

This line is too big, but the Cardinals looked dead last week. I said Kliff may be the first coach fired and that remains in play. This is winner for weirdest spread of the week. Pass.

I will be on Green Bay -10. The Bears always get crushed in Green Bay on a Sunday night. How do they always have to play this game at night? I feel bad for Chicago. They got a gift win last week. Now, it is the Packers coming off a loss after they looked horrid. I am in!

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

Survivor Pick
Week 2 San Francisco
Week 1 Baltimore (WIN)

Computer Model
Platinum
None

Premium
IND -4
NE -2
SEA +9.5
DAL +7
ARZ +5.5

Regular
LAC +4
CLE -6
WAS +1.5
TB -2.5
CAR +2
MIA +3.5
LAR -10.5
HOU +10
CHI +10
TEN +10
PHI -2

NFL Odds Boosts
BET GET (FD)
Bet a $10 SGP of +400 or more and get a Free $10 bet.

If your team gets up 10+ you win (DK)
Max $50
NFL Risk-Free Stepped up SGP (DK)
Max $10 if it loses on Thursday get a free bet back for the amount up to $10.
SGP Boost (DK)
Opt in and find out what you get, also the profit on these SGP’s is insane for the books.

College Football Odds Boots
Bet $20 Parlay or SGP and get a free $10 wager (FD). Must be +400 or more.

Parlay profit boost (DK)

CFB

NFL
JAX +4.5
GB -10
CLE -6

2022 NFL Computer Model
Overall 5-11 31.25%
Platinum 0-0
Premium 1-4 20%
Recommended Plays 1-4 (Platinum + Premium) 20%

2022 Our Plays
NFL 4-1 80%
Overall 4-1 80%
NFL Props 0-1 0%
NFL Odds Boosts 0-1 0%
NFL Teasers and Parlays 0-2 -200

College Football
Overall 2-2 50%
College Odds Boosts
College Teasers and Parlays

Combined
Overall 6-3 66.66%
Odds Boosts 0-1 0%
Teasers and Parlays 0-2 -200

Week 2 is normally when everyone over reacts. People will be saying Trey Lance sucks, the Packers are doomed and various other takes that are wild overreactions to week one. This can affect the betting markets a ton, yet this week it has created some inflated spreads. After last week gave us only a few options for survivor picks, we have tons of options this week. I am looking ahead to teams I may use later in order to eliminate options. Whom I ended up taking may not be that popular, but I love the spot.

I am not sure what to make of the Ravens at this point. They won and covered, but did not look great. The offense is somehow a question again and they suffered more injuries in week one. Miami should have also won by a lot more than they did and struggled at times too. I really want to be on the Ravens here, but maybe Miami’s defense has figured out Lamar like the one they did last year during that Thursday night game. Yet, new coaching staff and I just cannot back Tua on the road. I am passing, on this game, but want to be on the Ravens. I cannot do it.

The Jets looked bad and the Ravens should have won by three touchdowns. People are scared of laying almost a touchdown with Jacoby Brissett, which I clearly understand. The part no is mentioning is how will the Jets score? People want to back Joe Flacco on the road! What is happening here? I am not usually a favorite bettor, but this week has me going an odd direction. I am on the Browns -6. This game will be ugly but the Browns will score enough and win like 28-6. Cleveland is headed for 2-0.

Detroit is favored for the first time in years. It would make sense to take the dog, but Carson Wentz on the road coming off a win, no way. I am passing on this game as you could convince me of anything. Goff throws for 400-yards, sure. Wentz poops his pants and turns it over five times, sure. Pass for me.

This is the only game I bet early this week. I am on Jax +4.5. Matt Ryan looked rough last week and does not seem that different from Carson Wentz. Not a compliment of course. The Jags are not terrible and had some things go badly like two dropped touchdowns including on 4^th down in week one. Despite all that they held the lead with three minutes remaining in week one. The colts go to Florida to die every year and here is the best chance to take a home dog this week. I may lose money on the Jags every week at this rate, but I am headed right back there.

Speaking of teams who always lose in a location, the Bucs are back in New Orleans and the Saints seem to beat the every year. There is some injury concerns with the Saints at this point, but provided they have all their offensive weapons, I will find my way to the Saints +2.5. The Saints defense is good and they shut down Mike Evans every year. The Bucs have no weapons, besides Evans and have an injured offensive line. This is a fantastic spot to take a good defense against a team that is lacking in weapons at the moment. If Julio Jones beats me, then so be it.

The Giants are favored and it seems like people are ready to bet on Baker Mayfield on the road in week two. I hate this game. I am not sure either team is good. I am passing, but there is no way I take Carolina here.

The Steelers are a home dog, but teams that play a full five quarters tend to struggle the next week. (Like you know the Colts, Bengals, and Texans might.) If the defense was healthy and Kenny Pickett was the starter, I would smash this game. As of now, I am passing. The Steelers offense is so bad, yet, so is the Pats. I am going to this game and good god, bet the under.

The Rams should not be favored by double-digits over anyone, but I am not ready to take the Falcons. There is no way the Rams lose this game and start 0-2 at home. Pass on the spread.

All I have heard all week is the Niners are bad. Jimmy G will be the starter soon. They played in crazy conditions. It was still 10-0 Niners when Samuel fumbled against Chicago. Everyone is talking about this game from the perspective of the Niners. This is an awful spot for the Seahawks. This is a road divisional game after a Monday night emotional win. I love San Fran this week. The number keeps dipping slightly and I am waiting to get a better one perhaps Sunday. This being 9.5 in contests is slightly frustrating. In terms of survivor, this is my pick. I want to save others who have better games in the next few weeks. I mean just look at the spreads for next week. We need to save the Bengals. Give me the Niners in survivor and eventually probably against the spread as well, but no pick yet.

This game is dumb. The Bengals are going to beat the Cowboys, but it may be ugly. Passing on this game.

What a fantastic get-right spot for the Broncos. Houston is not great and I think Denver scores a bunch this week and looks like the team they were supposed to be. I mean, if they do not fumble at the goal line twice, they win last week no problem.

This line is too big, but the Cardinals looked dead last week. I said Kliff may be the first coach fired and that remains in play. This is winner for weirdest spread of the week. Pass.

I will be on Green Bay -10. The Bears always get crushed in Green Bay on a Sunday night. How do they always have to play this game at night? I feel bad for Chicago. They got a gift win last week. Now, it is the Packers coming off a loss after they looked horrid. I am in!

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

Survivor Pick
Week 2 San Francisco
Week 1 Baltimore (WIN)

Computer Model
Platinum
None

Premium
IND -4
NE -2
SEA +9.5
DAL +7
ARZ +5.5

Regular
LAC +4
CLE -6
WAS +1.5
TB -2.5
CAR +2
MIA +3.5
LAR -10.5
HOU +10
CHI +10
TEN +10
PHI -2

NFL Odds Boosts
BET GET (FD)
Bet a $10 SGP of +400 or more and get a Free $10 bet.

If your team gets up 10+ you win (DK)
Max $50
NFL Risk-Free Stepped up SGP (DK)
Max $10 if it loses on Thursday get a free bet back for the amount up to $10.
SGP Boost (DK)
Opt in and find out what you get, also the profit on these SGP’s is insane for the books.

College Football Odds Boots
Bet $20 Parlay or SGP and get a free $10 wager (FD). Must be +400 or more.

Parlay profit boost (DK)

CFB

NFL
JAX +4.5
GB -10
CLE -6

2022 NFL Computer Model
Overall 5-11 31.25%
Platinum 0-0
Premium 1-4 20%
Recommended Plays 1-4 (Platinum + Premium) 20%

2022 Our Plays
NFL 4-1 80%
Overall 4-1 80%
NFL Props 0-1 0%
NFL Odds Boosts 0-1 0%
NFL Teasers and Parlays 0-2 -200

College Football
Overall 2-2 50%
College Odds Boosts
College Teasers and Parlays

Combined
Overall 6-3 66.66%
Odds Boosts 0-1 0%
Teasers and Parlays 0-2 -200

Week 2 is normally when everyone over reacts. People will be saying Trey Lance sucks, the Packers are doomed and various other takes that are wild overreactions to week one. This can affect the betting markets a ton, yet this week it has created some inflated spreads. After last week gave us only a few options for survivor picks, we have tons of options this week. I am looking ahead to teams I may use later in order to eliminate options. Whom I ended up taking may not be that popular, but I love the spot.

I am not sure what to make of the Ravens at this point. They won and covered, but did not look great. The offense is somehow a question again and they suffered more injuries in week one. Miami should have also won by a lot more than they did and struggled at times too. I really want to be on the Ravens here, but maybe Miami’s defense has figured out Lamar like the one they did last year during that Thursday night game. Yet, new coaching staff and I just cannot back Tua on the road. I am passing, on this game, but want to be on the Ravens. I cannot do it.

The Jets looked bad and the Ravens should have won by three touchdowns. People are scared of laying almost a touchdown with Jacoby Brissett, which I clearly understand. The part no is mentioning is how will the Jets score? People want to back Joe Flacco on the road! What is happening here? I am not usually a favorite bettor, but this week has me going an odd direction. I am on the Browns -6. This game will be ugly but the Browns will score enough and win like 28-6. Cleveland is headed for 2-0.

Detroit is favored for the first time in years. It would make sense to take the dog, but Carson Wentz on the road coming off a win, no way. I am passing on this game as you could convince me of anything. Goff throws for 400-yards, sure. Wentz poops his pants and turns it over five times, sure. Pass for me.

This is the only game I bet early this week. I am on Jax +4.5. Matt Ryan looked rough last week and does not seem that different from Carson Wentz. Not a compliment of course. The Jags are not terrible and had some things go badly like two dropped touchdowns including on 4^th down in week one. Despite all that they held the lead with three minutes remaining in week one. The colts go to Florida to die every year and here is the best chance to take a home dog this week. I may lose money on the Jags every week at this rate, but I am headed right back there.

Speaking of teams who always lose in a location, the Bucs are back in New Orleans and the Saints seem to beat the every year. There is some injury concerns with the Saints at this point, but provided they have all their offensive weapons, I will find my way to the Saints +2.5. The Saints defense is good and they shut down Mike Evans every year. The Bucs have no weapons, besides Evans and have an injured offensive line. This is a fantastic spot to take a good defense against a team that is lacking in weapons at the moment. If Julio Jones beats me, then so be it.

The Giants are favored and it seems like people are ready to bet on Baker Mayfield on the road in week two. I hate this game. I am not sure either team is good. I am passing, but there is no way I take Carolina here.

The Steelers are a home dog, but teams that play a full five quarters tend to struggle the next week. (Like you know the Colts, Bengals, and Texans might.) If the defense was healthy and Kenny Pickett was the starter, I would smash this game. As of now, I am passing. The Steelers offense is so bad, yet, so is the Pats. I am going to this game and good god, bet the under.

The Rams should not be favored by double-digits over anyone, but I am not ready to take the Falcons. There is no way the Rams lose this game and start 0-2 at home. Pass on the spread.

All I have heard all week is the Niners are bad. Jimmy G will be the starter soon. They played in crazy conditions. It was still 10-0 Niners when Samuel fumbled against Chicago. Everyone is talking about this game from the perspective of the Niners. This is an awful spot for the Seahawks. This is a road divisional game after a Monday night emotional win. I love San Fran this week. The number keeps dipping slightly and I am waiting to get a better one perhaps Sunday. This being 9.5 in contests is slightly frustrating. In terms of survivor, this is my pick. I want to save others who have better games in the next few weeks. I mean just look at the spreads for next week. We need to save the Bengals. Give me the Niners in survivor and eventually probably against the spread as well, but no pick yet.

This game is dumb. The Bengals are going to beat the Cowboys, but it may be ugly. Passing on this game.

What a fantastic get-right spot for the Broncos. Houston is not great and I think Denver scores a bunch this week and looks like the team they were supposed to be. I mean, if they do not fumble at the goal line twice, they win last week no problem.

This line is too big, but the Cardinals looked dead last week. I said Kliff may be the first coach fired and that remains in play. This is winner for weirdest spread of the week. Pass.

I will be on Green Bay -10. The Bears always get crushed in Green Bay on a Sunday night. How do they always have to play this game at night? I feel bad for Chicago. They got a gift win last week. Now, it is the Packers coming off a loss after they looked horrid. I am in!

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

Survivor Pick
Week 2 San Francisco
Week 1 Baltimore (WIN)

Computer Model
Platinum
None

Premium
IND -4
NE -2
SEA +9.5
DAL +7
ARZ +5.5

Regular
LAC +4
CLE -6
WAS +1.5
TB -2.5
CAR +2
MIA +3.5
LAR -10.5
HOU +10
CHI +10
TEN +10
PHI -2

NFL Odds Boosts
BET GET (FD)
Bet a $10 SGP of +400 or more and get a Free $10 bet.

If your team gets up 10+ you win (DK)
Max $50
NFL Risk-Free Stepped up SGP (DK)
Max $10 if it loses on Thursday get a free bet back for the amount up to $10.
SGP Boost (DK)
Opt in and find out what you get, also the profit on these SGP’s is insane for the books.

College Football Odds Boots
Bet $20 Parlay or SGP and get a free $10 wager (FD). Must be +400 or more.

Parlay profit boost (DK)

CFB

NFL
JAX +4.5
GB -10
CLE -6

2022 NFL Computer Model
Overall 5-11 31.25%
Platinum 0-0
Premium 1-4 20%
Recommended Plays 1-4 (Platinum + Premium) 20%

2022 Our Plays
NFL 4-1 80%
Overall 4-1 80%
NFL Props 0-1 0%
NFL Odds Boosts 0-1 0%
NFL Teasers and Parlays 0-2 -200

College Football
Overall 2-2 50%
College Odds Boosts
College Teasers and Parlays

Combined
Overall 6-3 66.66%
Odds Boosts 0-1 0%
Teasers and Parlays 0-2 -200

I said to be careful with the computer in week one and I was not kidding. This is why models are used as guides and not the end all be all, when making plays. I ended up going 4-1 in all my contests and 4-1 in NFL sides I gave out. I want to thank the Jags for giving up a TD, when letting the Colts kick a FG would have been much better. Well, it would have been for me and anyone with JAX and the points perhaps.

Tonight should be fun with two of the premiere teams in the AFC and NFL. These games are always close and seem to come down to the wire. Yes, I know Keenan Allen is out with perhaps others from the Chargers. I think this plays close, but I am more focused on the Chargers WR overs in the prop market. I do find it odd that DeAndre Carter props are not on Fan Duel. Either way, I am passing on the game, but playing the risk free items listed below.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

Survivor Pick
Week 2
Week 1 Baltimore (WIN)

Computer Model
Platinum


Premium


Regular
LAC +4

NFL Odds Boosts
Mahomes and Herbert to throw for 250+ Yards +125 (FD)
Herbert’s prop is set to 279.5.
Mahomes’ prop is set to 295.5.
This parlay should pay -128. (On DK it’s -135)
I am in. This is too good to pass up. Could either QB not get there, sure, as it happened in their second game last season.


No Sweat SGP (FD)
Max $10 and it must be +400 or longer

If your team gets up 7+ you win (DK)
Max $50

NFL Risk-Free Stepped up SGP (DK)
Max $10 if it loses on Thursday get a free bet back for the amount up to $10.
All of these that get refunded as free bets for so little money are things you should be doing.

Fox Bet Has the same 250+ offer as FD, with a max of $10. Go ahead and bet this as well, but multiple sites offering the same boost is concerning.

College Football Odds Boots

CFB

NFL
Josh Palmer over 44.5 Receiving Yards -110

2022 NFL Computer Model
Overall 5-11 31.25%
Platinum 0-0
Premium 1-4 20%
Recommended Plays 1-4 (Platinum + Premium) 20%

2022 Our Plays
NFL 4-1 80%
Overall 4-1 80%
NFL Props
NFL Odds Boosts
NFL Teasers and Parlays 0-2 -200

College Football
Overall 2-2 50%
College Odds Boosts
College Teasers and Parlays

Combined
Overall 6-3 66.66%
Odds Boosts
Teasers and Parlays 0-2 -200

If there is every a time to fade a model, it is week one. The data is relying on some new things, but plenty of old information. You can tell that the model will have a lean when we know things have changed. In this case, the model feels the Patriots should be favored by three in Miami. We know, the Dolphins are trending up and the Patriots have had nothing by negative comments from their beat writers who have been at every practice during camp. With that being said, be careful out there. While I will post my contest selections later in the weekend, please make sure you understand what lines you have in your contests. As astute sports bettors, or anyone who can read, getting +3.5 is slightly better than getting +2.5 points. I am looking at you Jaguars. While I am not on any shows or podcasts this year, unless I decide to revive my own, I will try to break down how I see the games going this weekend, with my wagers.

I mentioned yesterday that I had bet the Texans +8.5, before this week. That number is long gone. While I still do like Houston +7 is much less appealing. Some contests have this game at 8.5, some at just seven. If this goes back up I think it is a play, but not at just +7.

Why is Washington favored over anyone? The defense is terrible and well, we know about the QB position. Am I going to back Trevor Lawrence on the road in week one? YES! I am all over JAX +2.5 and the JAX ML at +115. The Commanders secondary is horrendous and I believe the Jags are a surprise team this season. I think the Jags put up points and we know Washington was ready to ditch Antonio Gibson, only now needing to use him plenty week one. I get to wager against a team with Carson Wentz, playing a RB they do not like who has a defense missing its best pass rusher, with a weak secondary. We have seen this time and again, a disaster gets a competent coach and they improve by 3-5 wins. That happens in Jacksonville this year and it starts Sunday.

I think everyone is talking about the fact we have ten road favorites this weekend. One of the numbers I do not understand is the Saints -5.5 on the road. Jameis Winston and Dennis Allen are laying more than a field goal. This is a very strange number as I thought it should be three, but the model feels where it is currently is accurate. I think the Falcons will score and make this interesting. This will be a close game and the Saints need Winston and all the weapons to be healthy, which they may be for the first time in forever. I am taking the home dog on Atlanta +5.5.

HOMER ALERT! Oh, you have all left the Steelers for dead. The win total expects them to finish with under nine wins. This is insane. This number smells big time. The Bengals crushed the Steelers twice last year. The Bengals are everyone’s darling with their improved offensive line. Why is this not a touchdown? It feels like the books expect the public to come in on Cincinnati. Once a few key defensive players were hurt, the Steelers could not stop the run last year. They also had a QB who literally could not move and did not want to be hit. The offense will be vastly better and the defense is going to be good. Last year week one the Steelers won in Buffalo, this year, they lose a close one to the Bengals. I will take the Steelers +6.5. (If Diontae Johnson does not play, I am out.)

I am mad at myself for missing the Dolphins -3. I think the Pats will be bad and the Dolphins much improved. The Pats have so few weapons it is bizarre. I am still thinking about the Dolphins at -3.5, especially in contests, but wish I had a better number.

The Bears are going to be bad, but Trey Lance starting on the road without George Kittle (Maybe), seems like laying a touchdown is too much. I cannot take the Bears though and will not have the Niners either. I am running away. Speaking of running, I do like Elijah Mitchell this weekend.

The Hard Knocks darlings seem like they have become too public this week and for the season. I am skipping this game as well. The Eagles ran all over the Lions last year and everyone likes them to win the NFC East now. What a wild two weeks it has been for Eagles sleeper buzz. I am passing here.

It seems like the Ravens may have a weird combination of running backs Sunday against the Jets. I want Dobbins to play. The Jets have no offensive line, an immobile QB and more questions than answers. I think I have watched this game before when the Ravens went to Miami a few years ago and destroyed the Dolphins week one. I think Baltimore puts up some big numbers since they are mostly healthy compared to last year. I am on Baltimore -7. This is more of a bet against the Jets offense and on Lamar than anything.

The Baker Mayfield bowl is a game I have no desire to watch or bet on. This number has moved in favor of the Panthers, despite the fact the Browns have a significantly better roster in totality. Brissett is not good at all, but maybe the Browns can run it a ton. I need to see these two play before investing any dollars. Pass for me.

Is Tennessee secretly tanking? They drafted a QB, shipped away their star WR and seem to have the least amount of weapons they have had in years. Yet, the Titans seem to always find a way. Speaking of no weapons, what wide receivers will the Giants actually have week one? I know some sharps are on the Giants in this spot, but Daniel Jones on the road without anyone to throw to seems like a bad idea to me. Conversely, we may look back and say how could the Titans be more than a field goal favorite over anyone at this point. Pass for me.

I want to bet Kirk Cousins as a home dog this week. I really do. It feels too scary to go against Aaron Rodgers. If the Vikings are going to be good this year and throw it around a ton, this could be interesting. Yet, I will wait a week and see how both teams look. I am out here.

The Chiefs number keeps growing and growing. This was KC -3.5 a few days ago, but we are at -6 now. I mean Rondale Moore is important, but this many points? I am kidding of course. I rather want to go the other direction and the home dog getting a ton of points. I hate Kliff and think he could be fired at the end of the season if this goes badly. I am passing for now, but if this gets to seven, I will probably find my way to the Cardinals, god help me.

The Chargers are ascending, as we know. Still, they will have no home-field advantage as we expect at least half the stadium to be Raider fans. I like the Raiders a little, but they have no made my wagers section just yet. This is a candidate for a contest selection at +3.5. Finding five games can be very difficult some weeks.

The Bucs at Cowboys is a game I am very excited to watch and play some showdown. I have no lean either way. Both have key injuries on offense and I am not sure what to make of either team. It seems like the home dog is the way to go, but as of now, I have no play.

Who in their right mind is taking the Seahawks Monday night? I want to. The public will be on Denver, as you would expect. Check back on Monday as I may jump on the home dog here. I want this to get over seven. Just like the Bengals game, they are keeping this at an interesting number.

That is all for now. I am going to try to hit on every game this year, some games I will say a lot, others I will say very little. Lastly, please be careful parlaying road favorites this weekend.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

Survivor Pick
Baltimore

Future Wagers
Steelers over 7.5 wins +110
I know it is now -105. I bet this weeks ago. I am such a homer. However, the Steelers do not finish under .500. An 8-9 record is enough to cash here. If Mitch is bad, Kenny is going to take over and be good. I am slightly biased when it comes to the Steelers, Pitt and Kenny Pickett. This is the perfect storm.

Computer Model
Platinum
None

Premium
NE +3.5
PHI -4
IND -7
ARZ +6
SEA +6.5

Regular
LAR +2.5
NO -5.5
SF -7
PIT +6.5
BAL -7
CLE +2.5
GB +1.5
WAS -2.5
TEN -5.5
LVR +3.5
DAL +2.5

NFL Odds Boosts
Get up by 7 and Win (DK)This is for the Thursday night game. Max Wager $50 and it must be a money line wager.

Get up by 10 and win (DK)
This is for all of the other games. Max wager $50 and it must be a money line wager.

No sweat bet (FD)
$25 Max bet, refunded as free bets.

PHI/SF/NO to all win +200 (Fox)
This should pay +187, so it is a boost. Would you like to parlay three road favorites in the NFL? Good luck with that.

College Football Odds Boots

CFB

NFL
JAX +2.5
PITT +6.5
ATL +5.5
BAL -7

2022 NFL Computer Model
Overall
Platinum
Premium
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium)

2022 Our Plays
NFL
Overall
NFL Props
NFL Odds Boosts
NFL Teasers and Parlays 0-1 -100

College Football
Overall 2-2 50%
College Odds Boosts
College Teasers and Parlays

Combined
Overall 2-2 50%
Odds Boosts
Teasers and Parlays 0-1 -100

If there is every a time to fade a model, it is week one. The data is relying on some new things, but plenty of old information. You can tell that the model will have a lean when we know things have changed. In this case, the model feels the Patriots should be favored by three in Miami. We know, the Dolphins are trending up and the Patriots have had nothing by negative comments from their beat writers who have been at every practice during camp. With that being said, be careful out there. While I will post my contest selections later in the weekend, please make sure you understand what lines you have in your contests. As astute sports bettors, or anyone who can read, getting +3.5 is slightly better than getting +2.5 points. I am looking at you Jaguars. While I am not on any shows or podcasts this year, unless I decide to revive my own, I will try to break down how I see the games going this weekend, with my wagers.

I mentioned yesterday that I had bet the Texans +8.5, before this week. That number is long gone. While I still do like Houston +7 is much less appealing. Some contests have this game at 8.5, some at just seven. If this goes back up I think it is a play, but not at just +7.

Why is Washington favored over anyone? The defense is terrible and well, we know about the QB position. Am I going to back Trevor Lawrence on the road in week one? YES! I am all over JAX +2.5 and the JAX ML at +115. The Commanders secondary is horrendous and I believe the Jags are a surprise team this season. I think the Jags put up points and we know Washington was ready to ditch Antonio Gibson, only now needing to use him plenty week one. I get to wager against a team with Carson Wentz, playing a RB they do not like who has a defense missing its best pass rusher, with a weak secondary. We have seen this time and again, a disaster gets a competent coach and they improve by 3-5 wins. That happens in Jacksonville this year and it starts Sunday.

I think everyone is talking about the fact we have ten road favorites this weekend. One of the numbers I do not understand is the Saints -5.5 on the road. Jameis Winston and Dennis Allen are laying more than a field goal. This is a very strange number as I thought it should be three, but the model feels where it is currently is accurate. I think the Falcons will score and make this interesting. This will be a close game and the Saints need Winston and all the weapons to be healthy, which they may be for the first time in forever. I am taking the home dog on Atlanta +5.5.

HOMER ALERT! Oh, you have all left the Steelers for dead. The win total expects them to finish with under nine wins. This is insane. This number smells big time. The Bengals crushed the Steelers twice last year. The Bengals are everyone’s darling with their improved offensive line. Why is this not a touchdown? It feels like the books expect the public to come in on Cincinnati. Once a few key defensive players were hurt, the Steelers could not stop the run last year. They also had a QB who literally could not move and did not want to be hit. The offense will be vastly better and the defense is going to be good. Last year week one the Steelers won in Buffalo, this year, they lose a close one to the Bengals. I will take the Steelers +6.5. (If Diontae Johnson does not play, I am out.)

I am mad at myself for missing the Dolphins -3. I think the Pats will be bad and the Dolphins much improved. The Pats have so few weapons it is bizarre. I am still thinking about the Dolphins at -3.5, especially in contests, but wish I had a better number.

The Bears are going to be bad, but Trey Lance starting on the road without George Kittle (Maybe), seems like laying a touchdown is too much. I cannot take the Bears though and will not have the Niners either. I am running away. Speaking of running, I do like Elijah Mitchell this weekend.

The Hard Knocks darlings seem like they have become too public this week and for the season. I am skipping this game as well. The Eagles ran all over the Lions last year and everyone likes them to win the NFC East now. What a wild two weeks it has been for Eagles sleeper buzz. I am passing here.

It seems like the Ravens may have a weird combination of running backs Sunday against the Jets. I want Dobbins to play. The Jets have no offensive line, an immobile QB and more questions than answers. I think I have watched this game before when the Ravens went to Miami a few years ago and destroyed the Dolphins week one. I think Baltimore puts up some big numbers since they are mostly healthy compared to last year. I am on Baltimore -7. This is more of a bet against the Jets offense and on Lamar than anything.

The Baker Mayfield bowl is a game I have no desire to watch or bet on. This number has moved in favor of the Panthers, despite the fact the Browns have a significantly better roster in totality. Brissett is not good at all, but maybe the Browns can run it a ton. I need to see these two play before investing any dollars. Pass for me.

Is Tennessee secretly tanking? They drafted a QB, shipped away their star WR and seem to have the least amount of weapons they have had in years. Yet, the Titans seem to always find a way. Speaking of no weapons, what wide receivers will the Giants actually have week one? I know some sharps are on the Giants in this spot, but Daniel Jones on the road without anyone to throw to seems like a bad idea to me. Conversely, we may look back and say how could the Titans be more than a field goal favorite over anyone at this point. Pass for me.

I want to bet Kirk Cousins as a home dog this week. I really do. It feels too scary to go against Aaron Rodgers. If the Vikings are going to be good this year and throw it around a ton, this could be interesting. Yet, I will wait a week and see how both teams look. I am out here.

The Chiefs number keeps growing and growing. This was KC -3.5 a few days ago, but we are at -6 now. I mean Rondale Moore is important, but this many points? I am kidding of course. I rather want to go the other direction and the home dog getting a ton of points. I hate Kliff and think he could be fired at the end of the season if this goes badly. I am passing for now, but if this gets to seven, I will probably find my way to the Cardinals, god help me.

The Chargers are ascending, as we know. Still, they will have no home-field advantage as we expect at least half the stadium to be Raider fans. I like the Raiders a little, but they have no made my wagers section just yet. This is a candidate for a contest selection at +3.5. Finding five games can be very difficult some weeks.

The Bucs at Cowboys is a game I am very excited to watch and play some showdown. I have no lean either way. Both have key injuries on offense and I am not sure what to make of either team. It seems like the home dog is the way to go, but as of now, I have no play.

Who in their right mind is taking the Seahawks Monday night? I want to. The public will be on Denver, as you would expect. Check back on Monday as I may jump on the home dog here. I want this to get over seven. Just like the Bengals game, they are keeping this at an interesting number.

That is all for now. I am going to try to hit on every game this year, some games I will say a lot, others I will say very little. Lastly, please be careful parlaying road favorites this weekend.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

Survivor Pick
Baltimore

Future Wagers
Steelers over 7.5 wins +110
I know it is now -105. I bet this weeks ago. I am such a homer. However, the Steelers do not finish under .500. An 8-9 record is enough to cash here. If Mitch is bad, Kenny is going to take over and be good. I am slightly biased when it comes to the Steelers, Pitt and Kenny Pickett. This is the perfect storm.

Computer Model
Platinum
None

Premium
NE +3.5
PHI -4
IND -7
ARZ +6
SEA +6.5

Regular
LAR +2.5
NO -5.5
SF -7
PIT +6.5
BAL -7
CLE +2.5
GB +1.5
WAS -2.5
TEN -5.5
LVR +3.5
DAL +2.5

NFL Odds Boosts
Get up by 7 and Win (DK)This is for the Thursday night game. Max Wager $50 and it must be a money line wager.

Get up by 10 and win (DK)
This is for all of the other games. Max wager $50 and it must be a money line wager.

No sweat bet (FD)
$25 Max bet, refunded as free bets.

PHI/SF/NO to all win +200 (Fox)
This should pay +187, so it is a boost. Would you like to parlay three road favorites in the NFL? Good luck with that.

College Football Odds Boots

CFB

NFL
JAX +2.5
PITT +6.5
ATL +5.5
BAL -7

2022 NFL Computer Model
Overall
Platinum
Premium
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium)

2022 Our Plays
NFL
Overall
NFL Props
NFL Odds Boosts
NFL Teasers and Parlays 0-1 -100

College Football
Overall 2-2 50%
College Odds Boosts
College Teasers and Parlays

Combined
Overall 2-2 50%
Odds Boosts
Teasers and Parlays 0-1 -100