I am an adult. I have kids. I do not get overly excited about things. Well, maybe going to see the Star Wars stuff in Disney World last May. I was pretty excited for that. I mean, the Millennium Falcon is just sitting there! You should go. I had drinks at the Cantina. Rise of the resistance was my second favorite ride of the entire Disney Trip, after Avatar. Why do I mention this? I was so excited for the Kenny Pickett era. I am sure you are aware if you saw my tweets, or any weekly write-ups. I said no money on the Steelers until they bench Mitch. When Kenny was warming up, I was more excited than I can recall being at a Steeler game in a few years. We have not had good home playoff games for a few years. Yes, I have enjoyed my time, but nothing feels like the unknown excitement of Kenny.

This is the perfect storm. I am a Pitt Grad. Kenny went to Pitt. Kenny’s rise has been meteoric. He won a big game as a freshman and slowly got better in a run-first offense. Finally, last year he broke out. Knowing the Steelers needed a QB; the ghosts of 1983 remained when the Steelers passed on Dan Marino and suffered quarterback purgatory until 2004. Kenny being drafted meant to me, that there would not be any purgatory. There would not be any time wasted looking for the next guy. He is here. He has been here. I have been watching him for four years already. Now, we get to find out. In the immortal words of Peter Griffin, “a boat is a boat, but a mystery box can be anything. It could even be a boat.” I like the mystery box we have in Pittsburgh. Kenny is as cool as the Millennium Falcon and I am just as excited to see him too.

Week 5
The Giants run it well and the Packers were supposed to have a good defense. Maybe the Packers are bad. I am not laying the points for sure, but may be interested in the Giants as a dog. God, another weird London game. Pass for now.  

The Steelers are getting 14 across the board and 14.5 in some contests. Is there a doubt I am on them here? My only reservation is the injury issues in the Steelers secondary. I am waiting for Friday practice reports, but come on. We all know I am going to be on Steelers +14.

The Browns are a home-dog to a west coast team coming east and playing at 1 PM? Shut up and take my money. The Chargers have been run on by everyone. The Texans and Jags both just ran all over them. Give me the Browns and the points at +3, I am fine at any number.

What is less fun, betting in Kirk Cousins, or betting against him with a bad Bears team? I do not want to use this in survivor, but it is in play. I am not playing this game in anyway. I hate both teams.

A dome team with no defense is playing outdoors against a team that wants to run it every play. I am sure I am giving a fee points. Wait, it is only three? Sure, there is a rookie QB involved here, but this is the Patriots and this is Jared Goff outdoors. Notice, all of the Lions games have been inside. I am concerned about the Lions offensive line just being fantastic and allowing the Lions offense to make plays. However, I am here for the Pats to run for a massive amount today. I will take Pats -3.

Seattle getting 5.5 points feels like a trap. The Saints are bad and coming back from London and laying a ton of points for a team led by Andy Dalton. It is either Seattle or nothing for me, but man the Seahawks feel like the public trap of the week. Pass for now.

Miami is a road favorite against the Jets. It appears sharp money is all over the Jets and the public is on Miami. I think you know what side you should be on. In reality, it is Teddy Covers on the road as a favorite. I am passing, for now.

This is a get-right spot for the Bucs. Two straight losses, going against a shaky defense in the Falcons, the Bucs should score points. Right? Right? I know the Falcons are DVOA darlings after four weeks and our model has this line at just under five. This keeps growing and is now ten in most spots. I am not taking the Falcons in contests when the numbers are that different, passing for now.

Throw the Titans and Commanders game into the sun. I would normally be on a home dog here, but nope. Washington has quit on the coach, or so some are saying. Yet, I do not like the Titans either. They are always competent, but as a road favorite, ehhhh. Pass for now.

The Jags may be my survivor pick this week. They are laying a touchdown against the Texans and our computer model has this game at Jags -9. Yet, I am still hesitating. This is a game theory/fan play. If I fade the Bills, the obvious choice that I assume 75+% of survivor players will use and they somehow lose, I can eliminate a large portion of the field that remains. I can use Buffalo later. I am not sure we will have plenty of weeks with this many large favorites. Passing on the game, but in survivor, I am very interested.

I am not playing the awful Panthers. The Niners have a short week and are road favorites on the east coast. Baker is done, so I just cannot do it. Pass.

The Rams offensive line has been struggling and the Cowboys defense gets a ton of pressure. I wonder if the Cowboys offense can hold up against the Rams defense. I lean Dallas, but it makes sense why some sharper bettors are on the Rams.

The Eagles feel like the Admiral Akbar play of the week. They should crush the Cardinals who have been woefully bad. The public will be all over Philly and I am leaning into the home dogs here.

Ravens feel like the correct side on Sunday night. Baltimore is getting healthy and the Bengals could have lost to Teddy B if a few plays go differently. I am into the Ravens here, but not enough to lock it in yet.

I like the Chalky Chiefs Monday night it almost feels too easy. Both teams coming off a big win, Kansas City is on my short list. The Raiders have been bad, but if they can run the ball, it could get interesting. I keep thinking back to how many points the Chiefs scored against the Raiders last year.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

Survivor Pick
Week 5 Jacksonville
Week 4 Green Bay (WIN)
Week 3 Cincinnati (WIN)
Week 2 San Francisco (WIN)
Week 1 Baltimore (WIN)

Computer Model
Platinum
DAL +5.5
PHI -5.5

Premium
NYG +8
CLE +2.5
CHI +7
DET +3

Regular
DEN -3.5
PITT +14
SEA +5.5
ATL +8.5
TEN -2.5
MIA -3.5
JAX -7
SF -6.5
CIN +3
KC -7

NFL Odds Boosts.

Risk Free SGP (DK)
$10 refunded

Risk Free SGP (FD)
As always use these and get your money refunded as a free bet.

College Football Odds Boots

CFB

NFL
NE -3
CLE +2.5
PIT +14

2022 NFL Computer Model
Overall 26-36 41.93%
Platinum 0-1 0%
Premium 8-13 38.09%
Recommended Plays 8-14 (Platinum + Premium) 36.36%

2022 Our Plays
NFL
Overall 13-5 72.22%
NFL Props 0-1 0%
NFL Odds Boosts 2-3 -100
NFL Teasers and Parlays 0-3 -300

College Football
Overall 2-2 50%
College Odds Boosts
College Teasers and Parlays

Combined
Overall 15-7 68.18%
Odds Boosts 2-3 -100
Teasers and Parlays 0-3 -300

I am an adult. I have kids. I do not get overly excited about things. Well, maybe going to see the Star Wars stuff in Disney World last May. I was pretty excited for that. I mean, the Millennium Falcon is just sitting there! You should go. I had drinks at the Cantina. Rise of the resistance was my second favorite ride of the entire Disney Trip, after Avatar. Why do I mention this? I was so excited for the Kenny Pickett era. I am sure you are aware if you saw my tweets, or any weekly write-ups. I said no money on the Steelers until they bench Mitch. When Kenny was warming up, I was more excited than I can recall being at a Steeler game in a few years. We have not had good home playoff games for a few years. Yes, I have enjoyed my time, but nothing feels like the unknown excitement of Kenny.

This is the perfect storm. I am a Pitt Grad. Kenny went to Pitt. Kenny’s rise has been meteoric. He won a big game as a freshman and slowly got better in a run-first offense. Finally, last year he broke out. Knowing the Steelers needed a QB; the ghosts of 1983 remained when the Steelers passed on Dan Marino and suffered quarterback purgatory until 2004. Kenny being drafted meant to me, that there would not be any purgatory. There would not be any time wasted looking for the next guy. He is here. He has been here. I have been watching him for four years already. Now, we get to find out. In the immortal words of Peter Griffin, “a boat is a boat, but a mystery box can be anything. It could even be a boat.” I like the mystery box we have in Pittsburgh. Kenny is as cool as the Millennium Falcon and I am just as excited to see him too.

Week 5
The Giants run it well and the Packers were supposed to have a good defense. Maybe the Packers are bad. I am not laying the points for sure, but may be interested in the Giants as a dog. God, another weird London game. Pass for now.  

The Steelers are getting 14 across the board and 14.5 in some contests. Is there a doubt I am on them here? My only reservation is the injury issues in the Steelers secondary. I am waiting for Friday practice reports, but come on. We all know I am going to be on Steelers +14.

The Browns are a home-dog to a west coast team coming east and playing at 1 PM? Shut up and take my money. The Chargers have been run on by everyone. The Texans and Jags both just ran all over them. Give me the Browns and the points at +3, I am fine at any number.

What is less fun, betting in Kirk Cousins, or betting against him with a bad Bears team? I do not want to use this in survivor, but it is in play. I am not playing this game in anyway. I hate both teams.

A dome team with no defense is playing outdoors against a team that wants to run it every play. I am sure I am giving a fee points. Wait, it is only three? Sure, there is a rookie QB involved here, but this is the Patriots and this is Jared Goff outdoors. Notice, all of the Lions games have been inside. I am concerned about the Lions offensive line just being fantastic and allowing the Lions offense to make plays. However, I am here for the Pats to run for a massive amount today. I will take Pats -3.

Seattle getting 5.5 points feels like a trap. The Saints are bad and coming back from London and laying a ton of points for a team led by Andy Dalton. It is either Seattle or nothing for me, but man the Seahawks feel like the public trap of the week. Pass for now.

Miami is a road favorite against the Jets. It appears sharp money is all over the Jets and the public is on Miami. I think you know what side you should be on. In reality, it is Teddy Covers on the road as a favorite. I am passing, for now.

This is a get-right spot for the Bucs. Two straight losses, going against a shaky defense in the Falcons, the Bucs should score points. Right? Right? I know the Falcons are DVOA darlings after four weeks and our model has this line at just under five. This keeps growing and is now ten in most spots. I am not taking the Falcons in contests when the numbers are that different, passing for now.

Throw the Titans and Commanders game into the sun. I would normally be on a home dog here, but nope. Washington has quit on the coach, or so some are saying. Yet, I do not like the Titans either. They are always competent, but as a road favorite, ehhhh. Pass for now.

The Jags may be my survivor pick this week. They are laying a touchdown against the Texans and our computer model has this game at Jags -9. Yet, I am still hesitating. This is a game theory/fan play. If I fade the Bills, the obvious choice that I assume 75+% of survivor players will use and they somehow lose, I can eliminate a large portion of the field that remains. I can use Buffalo later. I am not sure we will have plenty of weeks with this many large favorites. Passing on the game, but in survivor, I am very interested.

I am not playing the awful Panthers. The Niners have a short week and are road favorites on the east coast. Baker is done, so I just cannot do it. Pass.

The Rams offensive line has been struggling and the Cowboys defense gets a ton of pressure. I wonder if the Cowboys offense can hold up against the Rams defense. I lean Dallas, but it makes sense why some sharper bettors are on the Rams.

The Eagles feel like the Admiral Akbar play of the week. They should crush the Cardinals who have been woefully bad. The public will be all over Philly and I am leaning into the home dogs here.

Ravens feel like the correct side on Sunday night. Baltimore is getting healthy and the Bengals could have lost to Teddy B if a few plays go differently. I am into the Ravens here, but not enough to lock it in yet.

I like the Chalky Chiefs Monday night it almost feels too easy. Both teams coming off a big win, Kansas City is on my short list. The Raiders have been bad, but if they can run the ball, it could get interesting. I keep thinking back to how many points the Chiefs scored against the Raiders last year.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

Survivor Pick
Week 5 Jacksonville
Week 4 Green Bay (WIN)
Week 3 Cincinnati (WIN)
Week 2 San Francisco (WIN)
Week 1 Baltimore (WIN)

Computer Model
Platinum
DAL +5.5
PHI -5.5

Premium
NYG +8
CLE +2.5
CHI +7
DET +3

Regular
DEN -3.5
PITT +14
SEA +5.5
ATL +8.5
TEN -2.5
MIA -3.5
JAX -7
SF -6.5
CIN +3
KC -7

NFL Odds Boosts.

Risk Free SGP (DK)
$10 refunded

Risk Free SGP (FD)
As always use these and get your money refunded as a free bet.

College Football Odds Boots

CFB

NFL
NE -3
CLE +2.5
PIT +14

2022 NFL Computer Model
Overall 26-36 41.93%
Platinum 0-1 0%
Premium 8-13 38.09%
Recommended Plays 8-14 (Platinum + Premium) 36.36%

2022 Our Plays
NFL
Overall 13-5 72.22%
NFL Props 0-1 0%
NFL Odds Boosts 2-3 -100
NFL Teasers and Parlays 0-3 -300

College Football
Overall 2-2 50%
College Odds Boosts
College Teasers and Parlays

Combined
Overall 15-7 68.18%
Odds Boosts 2-3 -100
Teasers and Parlays 0-3 -300

The computer model is off to a rough start, but always performs better with fresher new data. I assume it will start to progress positively. I am headed to a state without legal sports betting this weekend, so I have to make wager earlier than I would sometimes. As always, it depends upon the week. I think we know I may have a biased take of my guy, playing for my team, getting an insane amount of points. I know, it is the Bills, but here we are.

Tonight should be ugly, but this feels like a good Denver spot, or at least it needs to be for their sake. I am not playing it, but Denver feels like the correct side and the computer agrees. While this number is 3.5, our model says it should be closer to Denver -6. The Colts are bad and now missing their best offensive weapon. The Broncos should be able to defend the Colts very well. If I had any faith in the Denver coaching staff, I would be all over this, but here we are.

In terms of survivor this week it seems like Buffalo is the easy play. Yet, I want to save them. If you ignore my Steelers fan bias’s, the Bills will be large home favorite several more times this year. I am not so sure we will get that many weeks with this many touchdown or more favorites. We shall see what I end up doing later.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

Survivor Pick
Week 5
Week 4 Green Bay (WIN)
Week 3 Cincinnati (WIN)
Week 2 San Francisco (WIN)
Week 1 Baltimore (WIN)

Computer Model
Platinum


Premium


Regular
DEN -3.5

NFL Odds Boosts.
No Score 1^st Drive +100 (DK)
This is boosted from -225. I hope your max is higher than mine.

Risk Free SGP (DK)
$10 refunded

Risk Free SGP (FD)
As always use these and get your money refunded as a free bet.

College Football Odds Boots

CFB

NFL

2022 NFL Computer Model
Overall 26-36 41.93%
Platinum 0-1 0%
Premium 8-13 38.09%
Recommended Plays 8-14 (Platinum + Premium) 36.36%

2022 Our Plays
NFL
Overall 13-5 72.22%
NFL Props 0-1 0%
NFL Odds Boosts 1-3 -200
NFL Teasers and Parlays 0-3 -300

College Football
Overall 2-2 50%
College Odds Boosts
College Teasers and Parlays

Combined
Overall 15-7 68.18%
Odds Boosts 1-3 -200
Teasers and Parlays 0-3 -300

The computer model is off to a rough start, but always performs better with fresher new data. I assume it will start to progress positively. I am headed to a state without legal sports betting this weekend, so I have to make wager earlier than I would sometimes. As always, it depends upon the week. I think we know I may have a biased take of my guy, playing for my team, getting an insane amount of points. I know, it is the Bills, but here we are.

Tonight should be ugly, but this feels like a good Denver spot, or at least it needs to be for their sake. I am not playing it, but Denver feels like the correct side and the computer agrees. While this number is 3.5, our model says it should be closer to Denver -6. The Colts are bad and now missing their best offensive weapon. The Broncos should be able to defend the Colts very well. If I had any faith in the Denver coaching staff, I would be all over this, but here we are.

In terms of survivor this week it seems like Buffalo is the easy play. Yet, I want to save them. If you ignore my Steelers fan bias’s, the Bills will be large home favorite several more times this year. I am not so sure we will get that many weeks with this many touchdown or more favorites. We shall see what I end up doing later.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

Survivor Pick
Week 5
Week 4 Green Bay (WIN)
Week 3 Cincinnati (WIN)
Week 2 San Francisco (WIN)
Week 1 Baltimore (WIN)

Computer Model
Platinum


Premium


Regular
DEN -3.5

NFL Odds Boosts.
No Score 1^st Drive +100 (DK)
This is boosted from -225. I hope your max is higher than mine.

Risk Free SGP (DK)
$10 refunded

Risk Free SGP (FD)
As always use these and get your money refunded as a free bet.

College Football Odds Boots

CFB

NFL

2022 NFL Computer Model
Overall 26-36 41.93%
Platinum 0-1 0%
Premium 8-13 38.09%
Recommended Plays 8-14 (Platinum + Premium) 36.36%

2022 Our Plays
NFL
Overall 13-5 72.22%
NFL Props 0-1 0%
NFL Odds Boosts 1-3 -200
NFL Teasers and Parlays 0-3 -300

College Football
Overall 2-2 50%
College Odds Boosts
College Teasers and Parlays

Combined
Overall 15-7 68.18%
Odds Boosts 1-3 -200
Teasers and Parlays 0-3 -300

3-1 in picks and we advanced in survivor. It was not pretty, but it is a positive week. I still have the Rams in my picks contests tonight. Obviously, I think the Rams win tonight if I took them in my picks contests.

I have plenty to say about this past weekend the emergence of Kenny Pickett. I will save that for tomorrow. Quickly though, the Raiders I thought were such a great bet yesterday and said on Twitter I had the most money on them. Truly a must-win spot against an offense that has really struggled and should continue to do so without Javonte Williams. I felt like I was one of the only people who were meh about Russell Wilson coming to Denver. Is it all his fault, of course not, but he do not look the same.

Is anyone out there playing Reign Makers on Draft Kings?

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

Survivor Pick
Week 4 Green Bay (WIN)
Week 3 Cincinnati (WIN)
Week 2 San Francisco (WIN)
Week 1 Baltimore (WIN)

Computer Model
Platinum


Premium


Regular
SF -2.5

NFL Odds Boosts
Stafford 200+ Passing Yards/Jimmy G 200+ Passing Yards and Kittle 1+ TD +500 (FD)
This should pay +370. With both passing props significantly higher, this is almost a Kittle anytime TD boosted up from +190 to this number. I am passing has I do not trust the Niners offense without Trent Williams.

Kupp anytime TD +150 (DK)
Max bet $25
Kupp is -110 and will have ample opportunity to score here. I am in.

College Football Odds Boots

CFB

NFL

2022 NFL Computer Model
Overall 25-36 40.98%
Platinum 0-1 0%
Premium 8-13 38.09%
Recommended Plays 8-14 (Platinum + Premium) 36.36%

2022 Our Plays
NFL
Overall 13-5 72.22%
NFL Props 0-1 0%
NFL Odds Boosts 1-2 33.33% -100
NFL Teasers and Parlays 0-3 -300

College Football
Overall 2-2 50%
College Odds Boosts
College Teasers and Parlays

Combined
Overall 15-7 68.18%
Odds Boosts 1-2 33.33% -100
Teasers and Parlays 0-3 -300

Week four is here and hopefully we can continue our strong start. If you have been following all week, you know we are already on the Texans +5.5. I am a little lite on bets and things I have locked in right now, I suppose that is a product of the injuries we have in plenty of games this weekend. I will update Saturday or for sure Sunday morning.

This is a great spot for the Steelers as the Jets are turning back to Zach Wilson. Wilson is a wildcard, but the Jets offensive line is decimated. I should be on the Steelers here as it feels like the correct side. Yet, I said it last week. I am not putting any money on the Steelers until Mitch is on the bench. This Sunday I will be tested, as I want to bet Pittsburgh. For now, I am passing.

Over in London, it appears to be Andy Dalton leading the Saints without Michael Thomas. It feels almost too easy to be on the Vikings in this game at -3. Still, I am hesitant as it is Kirk Cousin on National TV and we know how that has gone. I have a strong lean to Minnesota and it may end up in my contests because the line is 2.5. As of now, no wagers.

The computer loves the Jags. LOVES THEM. I know they have a shutout and have been impressive, but so have the Eagles. It seems like the Jags are the correct side, but it is a unique spot coming off a blowout win for both teams. I lean JAX, but nothing at this time.

The Browns feel like the Admiral Akbar spot of the week laying only a single point in Atlanta. The Falcons are at a rest disadvantage coming back from the West Coast late on Sunday after beating Seattle, while the Browns beat the Steelers last Thursday. So, why is this line so small? It seems the Browns will be without both their pass rushing DE’s which is a problem. The Falcons have not really stopped anyone this year, go look at Geno Smith’s numbers last weekend. Maybe the over is the way to go here. The number looks too good to be true on the browns side, pass for me.

I know some sharp money has come in on the Commanders, but after last week, I cannot do it. Dallas has been great defensively and they will get pressure. I kind of like Dallas based upon seeing Carson Wentz take sack after sack last week, now they have to try and keep Micah Parsons out of the backfield. Good luck. Pass for now, but leaning Dallas.

Professional money has been all over Seattle this entire week dropping this number in the area of six points all the way down to 3.5. I am sure the Lions injury situation is playing a large part of this movement later in the week. I am all about taking dogs and this might be a great contest spot. If this number closes at three, you can get 4.5 in plenty of picks contests. I am passing for now in terms of wagers.

Neither the Titans nor the Colts are any good. Both having aging QB’s that will be replaced next year if not sooner. Slight lean on the Titans because the spread is larger than three points and it is a divisional game. I hate both these teams.

The Bears and Giants feels like the game with the least amount of pass attempts. At 3.5 I like the Bears because the Giants should not give more than three to anyone. Talk about a blah game. If it were not for fantasy and gambling, no one would care about this game despite both teams being 2-1. I also hate this game.

Buffalo is coming off a loss and now road favorites in Baltimore. This is the spot that the Ravens normally win unexpectedly; still I am not into it. The Ravens secondary made Mac Jones look fantastic last week. I wonder what the Bills look like against them. I am close to jumping on the Ravens, but seem to be very hesitant. I will pause on this one as I may come back to it Sunday morning.

I hate the Cardinals, as we all know. The Panthers are terrible as well. I like the Cardinals some this weekend, but I feel lukewarm. Some weekends it is hard to find five games for contests, or bets that we like. That is more than fine, less volume is not a problem for me some weeks.

I will be using the Packers in survivor. Laying the points is another issue. This game also sucks.

It feels like everyone us on the Broncos this week getting points from the winless Raiders. This is legitimately necessary win spot for the Raiders. Everyone thinks the Broncos are bad now, but the Raiders has clearly struggled as the only team that is 0-3. I like the Raiders some in this situation, but not feeling phenomenal about it, sensing a trend this week. Pass for now.

The public is all over the Chiefs this weekend. No one likes the Bucs. I am happily interested in the Bucs at home. Tom Brady is going to get some weapons back and the Kansas City offense has not been great. The Bucs are in consideration for me.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

Survivor Pick
Week 4 Green BayWeek 3 Cincinnati (WIN)
Week 2 San Francisco (WIN)
Week 1 Baltimore (WIN)

Computer Model
Platinum
JAX +6.5

Premium
MIA +4
CLE -1.5
TEN +3.5
CHI +3
HOU +5
DEN +2.5

Regular
MIN -2.5
DAL -3
DET -4.5
PIT -3.5
BUF -3
CAR -1.5
NE +9.5
TB +2
SF -2.5

NFL Odds Boosts
No Sweat SGP (FD) $10 Max and must be +400 or longer odds.

DK has plenty of boost for SGP and parlays, but make sure you opt in!

College Football Odds Boots
DK has plenty of boost for SGP and parlays, but make sure you opt in!

CFB

NFL
Houston +5.5

2022 NFL Computer Model
Overall 20-27 42.55%
Platinum 0-0
Premium 7-9 43.75%
Recommended Plays 7-9 (Platinum + Premium) 43.75%

2022 Our Plays
NFL
Overall 10-4 71.42%
NFL Props 0-1 0%
NFL Odds Boosts 1-2 33.33% -100
NFL Teasers and Parlays 0-3 -300

College Football
Overall 2-2 50%
College Odds Boosts
College Teasers and Parlays

Combined
Overall 12-6 66.66%
Odds Boosts 1-2 33.33% -100
Teasers and Parlays 0-3 -300

Week four is here and hopefully we can continue our strong start. If you have been following all week, you know we are already on the Texans +5.5. I am a little lite on bets and things I have locked in right now, I suppose that is a product of the injuries we have in plenty of games this weekend. I will update Saturday or for sure Sunday morning.

This is a great spot for the Steelers as the Jets are turning back to Zach Wilson. Wilson is a wildcard, but the Jets offensive line is decimated. I should be on the Steelers here as it feels like the correct side. Yet, I said it last week. I am not putting any money on the Steelers until Mitch is on the bench. This Sunday I will be tested, as I want to bet Pittsburgh. For now, I am passing.

Over in London, it appears to be Andy Dalton leading the Saints without Michael Thomas. It feels almost too easy to be on the Vikings in this game at -3. Still, I am hesitant as it is Kirk Cousin on National TV and we know how that has gone. I have a strong lean to Minnesota and it may end up in my contests because the line is 2.5. As of now, no wagers.

The computer loves the Jags. LOVES THEM. I know they have a shutout and have been impressive, but so have the Eagles. It seems like the Jags are the correct side, but it is a unique spot coming off a blowout win for both teams. I lean JAX, but nothing at this time.

The Browns feel like the Admiral Akbar spot of the week laying only a single point in Atlanta. The Falcons are at a rest disadvantage coming back from the West Coast late on Sunday after beating Seattle, while the Browns beat the Steelers last Thursday. So, why is this line so small? It seems the Browns will be without both their pass rushing DE’s which is a problem. The Falcons have not really stopped anyone this year, go look at Geno Smith’s numbers last weekend. Maybe the over is the way to go here. The number looks too good to be true on the browns side, pass for me.

I know some sharp money has come in on the Commanders, but after last week, I cannot do it. Dallas has been great defensively and they will get pressure. I kind of like Dallas based upon seeing Carson Wentz take sack after sack last week, now they have to try and keep Micah Parsons out of the backfield. Good luck. Pass for now, but leaning Dallas.

Professional money has been all over Seattle this entire week dropping this number in the area of six points all the way down to 3.5. I am sure the Lions injury situation is playing a large part of this movement later in the week. I am all about taking dogs and this might be a great contest spot. If this number closes at three, you can get 4.5 in plenty of picks contests. I am passing for now in terms of wagers.

Neither the Titans nor the Colts are any good. Both having aging QB’s that will be replaced next year if not sooner. Slight lean on the Titans because the spread is larger than three points and it is a divisional game. I hate both these teams.

The Bears and Giants feels like the game with the least amount of pass attempts. At 3.5 I like the Bears because the Giants should not give more than three to anyone. Talk about a blah game. If it were not for fantasy and gambling, no one would care about this game despite both teams being 2-1. I also hate this game.

Buffalo is coming off a loss and now road favorites in Baltimore. This is the spot that the Ravens normally win unexpectedly; still I am not into it. The Ravens secondary made Mac Jones look fantastic last week. I wonder what the Bills look like against them. I am close to jumping on the Ravens, but seem to be very hesitant. I will pause on this one as I may come back to it Sunday morning.

I hate the Cardinals, as we all know. The Panthers are terrible as well. I like the Cardinals some this weekend, but I feel lukewarm. Some weekends it is hard to find five games for contests, or bets that we like. That is more than fine, less volume is not a problem for me some weeks.

I will be using the Packers in survivor. Laying the points is another issue. This game also sucks.

It feels like everyone us on the Broncos this week getting points from the winless Raiders. This is legitimately necessary win spot for the Raiders. Everyone thinks the Broncos are bad now, but the Raiders has clearly struggled as the only team that is 0-3. I like the Raiders some in this situation, but not feeling phenomenal about it, sensing a trend this week. Pass for now.

The public is all over the Chiefs this weekend. No one likes the Bucs. I am happily interested in the Bucs at home. Tom Brady is going to get some weapons back and the Kansas City offense has not been great. The Bucs are in consideration for me.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

Survivor Pick
Week 4 Green BayWeek 3 Cincinnati (WIN)
Week 2 San Francisco (WIN)
Week 1 Baltimore (WIN)

Computer Model
Platinum
JAX +6.5

Premium
MIA +4
CLE -1.5
TEN +3.5
CHI +3
HOU +5
DEN +2.5

Regular
MIN -2.5
DAL -3
DET -4.5
PIT -3.5
BUF -3
CAR -1.5
NE +9.5
TB +2
SF -2.5

NFL Odds Boosts
No Sweat SGP (FD) $10 Max and must be +400 or longer odds.

DK has plenty of boost for SGP and parlays, but make sure you opt in!

College Football Odds Boots
DK has plenty of boost for SGP and parlays, but make sure you opt in!

CFB

NFL
Houston +5.5

2022 NFL Computer Model
Overall 20-27 42.55%
Platinum 0-0
Premium 7-9 43.75%
Recommended Plays 7-9 (Platinum + Premium) 43.75%

2022 Our Plays
NFL
Overall 10-4 71.42%
NFL Props 0-1 0%
NFL Odds Boosts 1-2 33.33% -100
NFL Teasers and Parlays 0-3 -300

College Football
Overall 2-2 50%
College Odds Boosts
College Teasers and Parlays

Combined
Overall 12-6 66.66%
Odds Boosts 1-2 33.33% -100
Teasers and Parlays 0-3 -300

The computer model loves the Dolphins +4. This makes complete sense as they have played well and are undefeated. Yet, this is an awful spot for Miami. They had to leave Florida early due to the weather. Their defense played roughly 33373528 snaps against Buffalo. Tua was hurt, but not concussed, somehow In that awful video we all watched.

While the Bengals have struggled to start the year, this is a difficult situation for the Dolphins defense. I am passing, but I am leaning toward the Bengals.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

Survivor Pick
Week 4
Week 3 Cincinnati (WIN)
Week 2 San Francisco (WIN)
Week 1 Baltimore (WIN)

Computer Model
Platinum
None

Premium
MIA +4

Regular

NFL Odds Boosts
No Sweat SGP (FD) $10 Max and must be +400 or longer odds.

Early win Bonus (DK) This Is back on DK for Thursday night!

Bengals -3.5/Chase TD/Hill TD/ Joey B over 200+ Passing Yards +1200 (FD)
There is a lot going on here. This should play +785. This is a solid boost, but you need to remember that TD’s can be fluky. Chase will be shadowed by Xavien Howard. You can fire here if you want to. I am passing.

College Football Odds Boots

CFB

NFL
Houston +5.5

2022 NFL Computer Model
Overall 20-27 42.55%
Platinum 0-0
Premium 7-9 43.75%
Recommended Plays 7-9 (Platinum + Premium) 43.75%

2022 Our Plays
NFL
Overall 10-4 71.42%
NFL Props 0-1 0%
NFL Odds Boosts 1-2 33.33% -100
NFL Teasers and Parlays 0-3 -300

College Football
Overall 2-2 50%
College Odds Boosts
College Teasers and Parlays

Combined
Overall 12-6 66.66%
Odds Boosts 1-2 33.33% -100
Teasers and Parlays 0-3 -300

We are on to week four. I figured it might be beneficial to mention some line moves and where things may be headed. Yesterday I talked about Houston getting six points at home against the beat up Chargers. That number is now gone, it is now Texans +5.5. I mentioned betting things earlier in the week this year since Covid times are now over. This is one of those spots. I am on Houston +5.5. It is always important to shop around as Fan Duel has the 5.5 and over on Draft Kings it is only 4.5.

In terms of other line moves from Sunday, the Lions have fallen from a six-point favorite to 5.5 points. It makes sense from a value standpoint. The Lions were favored two weeks ago for the first time I what two years and now they are laying almost a touchdown. It certainly feels like they should not be giving that many points to anyway, yet they did hold two separate double-digit leads in Minnesota Sunday before losing.

It is going to be very hard for me to not be on the Ravens getting +3.5 at home. I know Buffalo came off a bad loss and should rebound, but those secondary injuries for the Bills still exist. My only hesitation is they also remain for the Ravens. Mac Jones threw for a ton of yards, but did turn it over.

The Jags remain undervalued as they find themselves as just under a touchdown dogs in Philly. Philly has become a very public team that is now 2-1 ATS with the one being when they blew a 17-point lead and just missed covering.

I discussed Monday that the Packers would be the easy and obvious survivor play. The Packers have been bet up to around -11 in most spots. Brian Hoyer on the road in Green Bay without any real weapons. Man, that Packers defense should feast.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

Survivor Pick
Week 3 Cincinnati (WIN)
Week 2 San Francisco (WIN)
Week 1 Baltimore (WIN)

Computer Model
Platinum
None

Premium


Regular

NFL Odds Boosts
No Sweat SGP (FD) $10 Max and must be +400 or longer odds.

Early win Bonus (DK) This Is back on DK for Thursday night!

College Football Odds Boots

CFB

NFL
Houston +5.5

2022 NFL Computer Model
Overall 20-27 42.55%
Platinum 0-0
Premium 7-9 43.75%
Recommended Plays 7-9 (Platinum + Premium) 43.75%

2022 Our Plays
NFL
Overall 10-4 71.42%
NFL Props 0-1 0%
NFL Odds Boosts 1-2 33.33% -100
NFL Teasers and Parlays 0-3 -300

College Football
Overall 2-2 50%
College Odds Boosts
College Teasers and Parlays

Combined
Overall 12-6 66.66%
Odds Boosts 1-2 33.33% -100
Teasers and Parlays 0-3 -300

I went 4-1 in picks contests and sit at 11-4 for the year. I just need to keep this pace up for 15 more weeks and it will be a fantastic season. Your goal in order to win these contests is to be close to 65%. That is a lofty goal, but where you need to be in order to actually win.

Overall, it was a good weekend. We stayed alive in survivor, as more teams dropped off taking some of those road-favorites. In fact, every dog that we played won outright, except the Commanders. We cannot win them all I suppose. By taking the Bengals I did break one of my survivor rules, of no road team. I did it in week one as well with the Ravens. Maybe the Jets are the exception to that rule. Either way, Chargers, Bills, Chiefs all lost. I know these survivor pools have been decimated, but most have roughly just under 25% of the starting field remaining. It has only been three weeks. This upcoming week seems like an obvious one as the Packers are double-digit home favorites against what we assume is Brian Hoyer and the Patriots. The people who used the Packers in week two, might need to become a little riskier with their choices.

For tonight, the model is on the Cowboys, but I am staying away. The model is still weighted a little more towards last season with some of the items involved. That starts to shift the other direction starting with week four.

This better be the week Kenny Pickett gets announced as the starter. I literally can not take another week of Mitch. I am going to the Steelers and Jets game and I expect, no I demand it is Kenny Pickett versus Zach Wilson. Steelers are a 3.5-point favorites, but if they make a QB change, I will be on them.

Speaking of next week the Chargers lost their stud offensive tackle, their QB has banged up ribs, they refuse to use Austin Ekeler in a massive role, Keenan Allen is hurt and they are slated to be almost a touchdown favorite on the road in Houston. Say what you want about Houston, but they are 2-0-1 ATS after three weeks. I am curious to see if the public has learned from taking these road favorites of almost a touchdown and losing weekly. My guess, they have not and I will be on the Texans.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

Survivor Pick
Week 3 Cincinnati (WIN)
Week 2 San Francisco (WIN)
Week 1 Baltimore (WIN)

Computer Model
Platinum
None

Premium
DAL +1

Regular

NFL Odds Boosts
All these boosts involved touchdowns and the overs, in a game with a total at roughly 40 points. Not to mention that the under has been crushing this entire season, especially in prime-time games.

College Football Odds Boots

CFB

NFL

2022 NFL Computer Model
Overall 19-27 41.30%
Platinum 0-0
Premium 6-9 40%
Recommended Plays 6-9 (Platinum + Premium) 40%

2022 Our Plays
NFL
Overall 10-4 71.42%
NFL Props 0-1 0%
NFL Odds Boosts 1-2 33.33% -100
NFL Teasers and Parlays 0-3 -300

College Football
Overall 2-2 50%
College Odds Boosts
College Teasers and Parlays

Combined
Overall 12-6 66.66%
Odds Boosts 1-2 33.33% -100
Teasers and Parlays 0-3 -300