I am an adult. I have kids. I do not get overly excited about things. Well, maybe going to see the Star Wars stuff in Disney World last May. I was pretty excited for that. I mean, the Millennium Falcon is just sitting there! You should go. I had drinks at the Cantina. Rise of the resistance was my second favorite ride of the entire Disney Trip, after Avatar. Why do I mention this? I was so excited for the Kenny Pickett era. I am sure you are aware if you saw my tweets, or any weekly write-ups. I said no money on the Steelers until they bench Mitch. When Kenny was warming up, I was more excited than I can recall being at a Steeler game in a few years. We have not had good home playoff games for a few years. Yes, I have enjoyed my time, but nothing feels like the unknown excitement of Kenny.
This is the perfect storm. I am a Pitt Grad. Kenny went to Pitt. Kenny’s rise has been meteoric. He won a big game as a freshman and slowly got better in a run-first offense. Finally, last year he broke out. Knowing the Steelers needed a QB; the ghosts of 1983 remained when the Steelers passed on Dan Marino and suffered quarterback purgatory until 2004. Kenny being drafted meant to me, that there would not be any purgatory. There would not be any time wasted looking for the next guy. He is here. He has been here. I have been watching him for four years already. Now, we get to find out. In the immortal words of Peter Griffin, “a boat is a boat, but a mystery box can be anything. It could even be a boat.” I like the mystery box we have in Pittsburgh. Kenny is as cool as the Millennium Falcon and I am just as excited to see him too.
Week 5
The Giants run it well and the Packers were supposed to have a good defense. Maybe the Packers are bad. I am not laying the points for sure, but may be interested in the Giants as a dog. God, another weird London game. Pass for now.
The Steelers are getting 14 across the board and 14.5 in some contests. Is there a doubt I am on them here? My only reservation is the injury issues in the Steelers secondary. I am waiting for Friday practice reports, but come on. We all know I am going to be on Steelers +14.
The Browns are a home-dog to a west coast team coming east and playing at 1 PM? Shut up and take my money. The Chargers have been run on by everyone. The Texans and Jags both just ran all over them. Give me the Browns and the points at +3, I am fine at any number.
What is less fun, betting in Kirk Cousins, or betting against him with a bad Bears team? I do not want to use this in survivor, but it is in play. I am not playing this game in anyway. I hate both teams.
A dome team with no defense is playing outdoors against a team that wants to run it every play. I am sure I am giving a fee points. Wait, it is only three? Sure, there is a rookie QB involved here, but this is the Patriots and this is Jared Goff outdoors. Notice, all of the Lions games have been inside. I am concerned about the Lions offensive line just being fantastic and allowing the Lions offense to make plays. However, I am here for the Pats to run for a massive amount today. I will take Pats -3.
Seattle getting 5.5 points feels like a trap. The Saints are bad and coming back from London and laying a ton of points for a team led by Andy Dalton. It is either Seattle or nothing for me, but man the Seahawks feel like the public trap of the week. Pass for now.
Miami is a road favorite against the Jets. It appears sharp money is all over the Jets and the public is on Miami. I think you know what side you should be on. In reality, it is Teddy Covers on the road as a favorite. I am passing, for now.
This is a get-right spot for the Bucs. Two straight losses, going against a shaky defense in the Falcons, the Bucs should score points. Right? Right? I know the Falcons are DVOA darlings after four weeks and our model has this line at just under five. This keeps growing and is now ten in most spots. I am not taking the Falcons in contests when the numbers are that different, passing for now.
Throw the Titans and Commanders game into the sun. I would normally be on a home dog here, but nope. Washington has quit on the coach, or so some are saying. Yet, I do not like the Titans either. They are always competent, but as a road favorite, ehhhh. Pass for now.
The Jags may be my survivor pick this week. They are laying a touchdown against the Texans and our computer model has this game at Jags -9. Yet, I am still hesitating. This is a game theory/fan play. If I fade the Bills, the obvious choice that I assume 75+% of survivor players will use and they somehow lose, I can eliminate a large portion of the field that remains. I can use Buffalo later. I am not sure we will have plenty of weeks with this many large favorites. Passing on the game, but in survivor, I am very interested.
I am not playing the awful Panthers. The Niners have a short week and are road favorites on the east coast. Baker is done, so I just cannot do it. Pass.
The Rams offensive line has been struggling and the Cowboys defense gets a ton of pressure. I wonder if the Cowboys offense can hold up against the Rams defense. I lean Dallas, but it makes sense why some sharper bettors are on the Rams.
The Eagles feel like the Admiral Akbar play of the week. They should crush the Cardinals who have been woefully bad. The public will be all over Philly and I am leaning into the home dogs here.
Ravens feel like the correct side on Sunday night. Baltimore is getting healthy and the Bengals could have lost to Teddy B if a few plays go differently. I am into the Ravens here, but not enough to lock it in yet.
I like the Chalky Chiefs Monday night it almost feels too easy. Both teams coming off a big win, Kansas City is on my short list. The Raiders have been bad, but if they can run the ball, it could get interesting. I keep thinking back to how many points the Chiefs scored against the Raiders last year.
Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!
Survivor Pick
Week 5 Jacksonville
Week 4 Green Bay (WIN)
Week 3 Cincinnati (WIN)
Week 2 San Francisco (WIN)
Week 1 Baltimore (WIN)
Computer Model
Platinum
DAL +5.5
PHI -5.5
Premium
NYG +8
CLE +2.5
CHI +7
DET +3
Regular
DEN -3.5
PITT +14
SEA +5.5
ATL +8.5
TEN -2.5
MIA -3.5
JAX -7
SF -6.5
CIN +3
KC -7
NFL Odds Boosts.
Risk Free SGP (DK)
$10 refunded
Risk Free SGP (FD)
As always use these and get your money refunded as a free bet.
College Football Odds Boots
CFB
NFL
NE -3
CLE +2.5
PIT +14
2022 NFL Computer Model
Overall 26-36 41.93%
Platinum 0-1 0%
Premium 8-13 38.09%
Recommended Plays 8-14 (Platinum + Premium) 36.36%
2022 Our Plays
NFL
Overall 13-5 72.22%
NFL Props 0-1 0%
NFL Odds Boosts 2-3 -100
NFL Teasers and Parlays 0-3 -300
College Football
Overall 2-2 50%
College Odds Boosts
College Teasers and Parlays
Combined
Overall 15-7 68.18%
Odds Boosts 2-3 -100
Teasers and Parlays 0-3 -300
Win The Weekends 