The computer likes Seattle but barely tonight. Probably a good game to stay away and watch! I’ll be watching some and the NBA. Warriors and Rockets anyone?!?!

Once you become a teenager and move into college, Christmas kind of loses its magic. The holiday becomes a time to hang with family and relax. The excitement of Santa, decorating and the fun of the season kind of disappear. It’s almost as if the holiday loses its importance or purpose for you. Then you have kids. All the sudden doing fun winter themed activates and getting ready for the holiday become a major focus. Having children makes the month and time surrounding the holidays significantly more fun and enjoyable. Just thinking about my children and the holidays makes me smile. I look back fondly on my time as a child and things I recall about Christmas and I want that for my children. I also wish I was a child and didn’t have to worry about buying gifts, wrapping them, budgeting for them and making sure both children have what they may perceive as an “even” amount of gifts. If someone could just shop, wrap and place all the gifts I want to get under the tree that would be great, thanks. Adulting is hard. While I love Christmas with my family and children, there are things I can’t stand.

1. Shopping – Why am I writing about Christmas in November? We already started shopping of course. When you have children you need to covertly sneak all your gifts into the house or wait until they are asleep. Too bad you can’t schedule Amazon deliveries for 9 PM every night. I know people that try to collect and hide boxes before their husbands/wives get home from work, but kids are much harder.
2. Boxes – WHY DO ALL TOY BOXES SHOW WHAT IS INSIDE?! Come on toy companies do better!! There should be a gift option when you order toys and it goes in a generic box. We have had to ship gifts to my wife’s office so that children didn’t come home and see a box with the contents splattered all over the side. Normally, Amazon takes care of this, but how many times are my children going to believe every package is diapers and wipes?
3. Christmas Vacation – This movie is not and never has been funny. Chevy Chase is not funny. He never was. Yes, you can @ me about this! People act like this is some funny holiday tradition. Give me ELF instead. Frankly, give me Die Hard instead. YES, DIE HARD ONE AND TWO. I have other hot takes about TV shows everyone loves that are also not funny, but that’s a different blog. (The office and Seinfeld, I’m coming for you)
4. Commercials on my DVR – Do you watch any TV when it is actually on? I rarely do besides sports and certain shows. (THRONES, back in APRIL!!!!) When I finally get around to watching shows that were recorded near the Holidays, they are littered with Holiday themed songs and commercials. Nothing like seeing and hearing these in February. The annoyance of this can only be topped by seeing political commercials, days, weeks and months after the election ended. If I can use an old phrase, hashtag first world problems.
5. Cars – This kind of relates to no.4, but car commercials where people give cars on Christmas day. What kind of relationship do these people have with their spouses? While I am sure my wife would be appreciative that I purchased her a brand new car, she would be furious that I made a major life purchase without consulting her. Plus, WHAT DID THEY DO WITH THE OLD CAR? You can’t trade that in without the other person knowing on Christmas eve? Can you? I’m sure there are like 11 pair of sunglasses in the old car or something of importance. Are all of these couples so independently wealthy and have time during the season to purchase a brand new car without their significant other knowing? Massive red flag. The husband is probably up to no good and covering for something he did.
6. Getting Pictures with Santa– Parents who have young children and choose to dress the kids up and make them stand in a line for an hour to get a picture with a stranger in a crowded, hot environment and hope you have one usable picture for Instagram and to send to family, you the real MVP. We all do this. We all know it’s not going to go well. We all keep doing it. I wouldn’t trade this picture of my children and their experience seeing Santa for anything! In a few weeks you will find this picture on the win the weekends Instagram account!

What do all of you actually dislike about the holidays? Let me know in the comments, on Twitter or Instagram!

We are now live on Instagram! Give us a follow here!

We will be posting even more pictures of fantasy sports, gambling and of course the #DADLIFE.

 

 

The computer model is on fire. The computer went 10-3 overall and 4-1 on premium plays. Yes, the one platinum play lost, but overall it was a fantastic week. I also had a great week myself in terms of my wagers. I went 2-1 and even my crazy teasers went 2-1, but I had two units on each of the winners. Slowly, climbing my way back to relevance with the teasers.

To be a winner and make money you really need to win higher than 54% of your wagers. I don’t pretend to win all the time or lie about my wagers. I post everything I do ahead of time and live with the results, no matter what. (Apollo Creed Rocky IV Voice) Just like everything else, some years are better than others, but the computer model has been above 54% every single year since we started running it. I said this before the season started, but if you are in a picks league that picks every game against the spread, it is a fantastic tool.

I have mentioned DFS before and will touch on basketball even more as the NFL season winds down. I will also post some NBA wagers as well. You may see some things pop up from time to time on here regarding that. I am also working on creating an Instagram page to see all the fun pictures and videos from my gambling, fantasy sports and #DADLIFE adventures.

 

Platinum 2-6 (25%%)
Premium 20-15-3 (57.14%)
Overall 78-63-7 (55.31%)

My Crazy Teasers 6-13 (31.57%)  -520
My Picks 16-11-1 (59.25%)
The Undertaker 2-3 (40%)

On Thursday I already gave you a winner with the Steelers and hopefully you have a bunch of open teases that involve the Steelers too! For today I only like two wagers.

TENN +6.5 – Pats seem to be very injured and added people yesterday and today. This feels like a great spot for the Titans who have turned it around after their bye week. Pats win a close one on the road.

TB-3 – Washington had to sign three people who will play on the offensive line this week. That’s a pretty big red flag. FITZMAGIC is back and TB wins.

In terms of DFS it is a strange week. There are a few high priced RB’s to jam in, and some value at WR. There are only two stacks I like and I am playing them on both major sites.

MAHOMES/Hunt/Larry

Marcus/Lewis/Gordon

Yes, I realize I am all in on the Titans today. What could possibly go wrong? The other obviously play for today is MVS. I will have 100% exposure to him. My volume is going to be way down today as I am out of town at a family function. Good luck to everyone. Hopefully, I’m posting winning screen shots on twitter @wintheweekend in twelve hours!

Somehow week 10 is upon us. Feels like not that long ago the season was about to start, but here we are and look at the spreads this week. After all the favorites covered last week, Vegas is raising the numbers across the board. There has always been the Patriots tax meaning the line was one or two points higher than it should be since the public always plays them. Now that tax has been extrapolated to several teams. The Rams, Chiefs and whomever is playing the worst teams are getting taxed as well. Some of these spreads just feel a little too high. Honestly, how many points would it take for you to bet on the Cardinals against the Chiefs? Before the season started and even a few weeks into the season I would have automatically taken anyone getting 16.5, or any home dog of more than 3. Yet, at this point these numbers seem very fair. How did we get here?

There are some god awful teams that barely can compete. These teams barely resemble an NFL team and have massive trouble scoring. Conversely, the good teams can drop 30+ on any given day. Prior to this year it felt like any team getting over a touchdown had a chance for a cheap back door cover TD while the other team played soft defense. That is not the case for Oakland, Buffalo, the Jets, Dallas and a number of other teams. These teams have so few weapons that even with a soft defense they cannot score. How many points do you think the Cardinals will really score this week if things go extremely well? 17? Cardinals point totals this year: 6, 0, 14, 17, 28, 17, 10, 18. The two highest scores of 28 and 18 were both against San Francisco. Buffalo has similar numbers. How do we take advantage of this situation? By using teasers.

When I was in college I had a friend who bet one three team ten-point teaser every week. He picked the Patriots and two other big favorites. He won, a lot. As the leagues changed that became less optimal every year. Now, that we have transitioned back to a system of massive spreads it makes tons of sense to try and adapt and play some of these teasers.

For example, my first wager of the weekend is a crazy teaser.

Three team 10 point Teaser -120 (2 Units)
KC -6.5
LAR PK
LAC PK

The Rams and Chargers just need to win against teams they should easily beat. The Chiefs just need to cover seven against a team that can’t score more than 17. The Chiefs average over 30 points a game.

Four Team 13 Point Teaser -130 (2 Units)
KC -4.5
LAC +2.5
LAR +3
PITT +9.5

I love the Steelers tonight and obviously, like the other wagers I mentioned above.

Eight Team 7 Point Teaser +900
KC -10.5
LAC -3.5
LAR -3
PITT +3.5
NE PK
CHI PK
PHIL -.5
ATL +.5

All I am asking in this wager is the good teams to basically just win against the bad. This will really test my theory of how the NFL has shifted for this week and the rest of the year.

My Wagers

PITT -3.5
This line keeps dropping and I still love it. The good teams at home on Thursday keep doing well. Carolina does not have any WR to really challenge the Steelers secondary and I know they won’t be able to run the ball.

 

The computer this week has one Platinum play and several premium plays!

Platinum
MIA +9.5

Premium Plays
CAR +4
WAS +3
LAC -9.5
SEA +10
DAL +6.5

The Rest of the Plays
CHI -6.5
NO -5.5
CLE +4
TEN +6.5
INDY -3
KC -16.5
BUFF +7
NYG +3

 

Platinum 2-5 (28.57%)
Premium 16-14-3 (53.33%)
Overall 68-60-6 (53.13%)

My Crazy Teasers 4-12 (25%)  -820
My Picks 14-10-1 (58.33%)
The Undertaker 2-3 (40%)

DFS was decent yesterday. I got a lot right and got a lot wrong. I made a profit on DK and lost on FD. Nailing the defenses was basically the difference. On DK I had Miami and Chicago only, but on FD I had none of those two teams. I won’t understand how the Panthers scored all those points and Cam was responsible for so little. Feels like considering all the possible results in that situation, it was a bottom five percent result. I said to play Gurley and Kamara in every lineup and while that worked it wasn’t optimal. The value WR’s did not really do well besides Tre Smith. Next week should be fun. The Falcons get crushed by pass catching running backs. The Browns just started throwing to Duke Johnson again and he crushed Sunday. I wonder how many targets he gets this week.

In terms of tonight, it appears to be NBA value night. The Heat look to be sitting at least one player, so I am locking BAM in at center on both sites. The other value play I am going to use is Terrance Ross. The Magic have been playing Ross close to 30 minutes when Isaac has been out. The play of the night is Russell Westbrook. I am playing him in every lineup and in every format. Additionally, his back up Dennis Schroder keeps hitting value as well and his price never changes. You can play both easily in the game with the highest total.

The computer was average going 6-6, but 2-1 on premium plays.

Record Update

Platinum 2-5 (28.57%)
Premium 16-14-3 (53.33%)
Overall 67-60-6 (52.75%)

My Crazy Teasers 4-12 (25%)  -820
My Picks 14-10-1 (58.33%)
The Undertaker 2-3 (40%)

Daily Fantasy Cash Game Win Rates
Fan Duel
Week 1 34.48%
Week 2 21%
Week 3 54.1%
Week 4 80%
Week 5 25.86%
Week 6 Did not play cash due to family situation.
Week 7 13%
Week 8 Did not play cash.
Week 9 Did not play cash.

Draft Kings
Week 1 100%
Week 2 18%
Week 3 73%
Week 4 100%
Week 5 22%
Week 6 72.72%
Week 7 18%
Week 8 Did not play cash.
Week 9 76.92%

This seems like a straight forward week to me. Play as many saints and rams as you can! I am making three stacks today. I am doing them on both fan duel and draft kings.

Cam/Moore/Howard

Brees/Kamara/Smith/Gurley

Goff/Gurley/Kamara/Smith

I am full on team “jammem in,” in terms of Kamara and Gurley. 100% exposure incoming. In cash I think you can play dolphins Wr’s and Phillip Lindsey. The sneakiest GPP plays of the day are Mark Ingram and Nuk Hopkins. Hopkins May get 15 targets today and is going to be very low owned. If you play Hopkins with Sutton that gives you a nice back and fourth of the WR’s and helps make the Sutton chalk a little more contrarian.

Wagers

Pitt +2

GB +5.5

Crazy teaser of the day!

Three team ten point tease -120

PITT +12

GB +15.5

CHIC PK

The computer killed it last week and we shall see if it keeps going! We have three premium plays this week!

Premium
CHI -9.5
KC -8.5
GB +5.5

The rest of our plays
OAK +3
NYJ +3
DET +4.5
WAS -1.5
CAR -6.5
PITT +3
HOU +1
LAC +1.5
LAR +1.5
TENN +6.5

I personally am not playing anything tonight. What a god awful NFL game we have. It is however a great night for some NBA DFS!!! The totals in the NO/POR and OKC/CHA game both keep rising. These are the two games I am trying to target the most. It makes a lot of sense to start your lineups off with Damon LIllard and Kemba Walker on Fan Duel. I really want to play both RWB and Anthony Davis, but they are not crushing their prices. If they were under 12K I would be much more interested. Kemba was not great his last outing when he was highly owned and his price went up. I hope the masses stay away due to recency bias. The obvious cheap plays today are Jerami Grant, especially if he starts again, and Moe Harkless is currently listed as out again, which means Turner gets more run and increased usage with the second unit. Hopefully, I am tweeting tomorrow morning about sweeping cash games again! Good luck everyone!.

The computer came roaring back going 10-4 overall and 2-1 on premium plays. I went 2-1 with my personal plays, but of course lost a crazy teaser. This is why professionals don’t play crazy teasers in any way shape or form. It is hard enough to win one wager let alone several. I played a lot less volume Sunday due to going to the Steeler game, but was lucky enough to get post game field passes. It was an enjoyable Sunday with my dad!

DFS was fine as I had one or two stacks cash on both sites. I made a little money on DK and lost a little on FD. It was basically a break even weekend for me. If I had played cash I am sure it would have been profitable, but oh well. I am back on the NBA grind and will try to post thoughts throughout the week.

Updated Records are below for the computer, my picks, my crazy teasers and the Undertaker’s plays.

Platinum 2-5 (28.57%)
Premium 14-13-3 (51.85%)
Overall 61-54-6 (53.50%)

My Crazy Teasers 3-12 (20%)  -920
My Picks 13-9-1 (59.09%)
The Undertaker 2-3 (40%)

Daily Fantasy Cash Game Win Rates
Fan Duel
Week 1 34.48%
Week 2 21%
Week 3 54.1%
Week 4 80%
Week 5 25.86%
Week 6 Did not play cash due to family situation.
Week 7 13%
Week 8 Did not play cash.

Draft Kings
Week 1 100%
Week 2 18%
Week 3 73%
Week 4 100%
Week 5 22%
Week 6 72.72%
Week 7 18%
Week 8 Did not play cash.