Went a disappointing 1-1 last night, but felt good about the Celtics never being in doubt. Many weird times today as many games wrap up before New Year’s Eve festivities start up. Well, at least they would have in a normal year.

NBA Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
Draft Kings is offering a 20% boost on one NBA game per day for the rest of 2020. I boosted the small NBA money Line parlay. There is one more DK odds boost I hit up and think you should too.

Draft Kings Domantas Sabonis Over 37.5 combined points/rebounds/assists + 110
I am on this one. Against the Celtics, Sabonis twice fell short. Against two bad teams, he smashed this number. I believe the Cavs are bad.

NCAA Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
Draft Kings has a 100% boost and a free bet awarded for taking the ML dog of a game. The smaller the spread, the more likely you do not lose both ends and you can make a profit and get a free bet. You can do the exact same thing as yesterday! I gave a perfect example of how to pull this off in yesterdays post. Small, favorite and a plus money dog, is the perfect recipe.

For today, I am looking into a few games.

NCAAB
San Francisco -12.5
Two-road games against decent teams and San Diego has two 20+-point losses.

High Point -4.5
These two played yesterday and High Point won and by 11 points. I have gone against South Carolina Upstate a few times this year already. They are 0-9 and have a proclivity for getting blow out.

NBA
Pacers ML/Sixers ML/Raptors ML +181 (Boosted to +217 on DK)

Let’s Get Weird
SF ML/High Point ML/Pacers ML Parlay +114
Pacers look good and Victor Oladipo seems to be close to his old self. Obviously, I like the other two games.

Basketball
2020-2021 Season Record
NBA Record 2-3 40%
NCAA Record 2-2 50%
Hoops Parlay Record 1-1 +190

NFL
2020 Season Record
Overall 127-103 55.22%
Platinum 2-5 28.57%
Premium 23-14 62.16%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 25-19 56.81%

Last night was not great, but we are back grinding today. I will be on 93.7 The Fan in Pittsburgh to discuss sports betting at around 1:40 PM today, come and listen!

NBA Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
Draft Kings is offering a 20% boost on one NBA game per day for the rest of 2020. I boosted the Celtics up to plus money when laying the six points. The rest of the DK boosts are not that great and carry a little more risk than the boost is worth.

NCAA Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
Draft Kings has a 100% boost and a free bet awarded for taking the ML dog of a game. The smaller the spread, the more likely you do not lose both ends and you can make a profit and get a free bet. Here is an example. The smaller the spread, the more likely you are to not lose both ends, but it reduces your money line potential profit. This example, can work, but look around and see what else is out there.

For today, I am looking into a few games.

NCAAB
Baylor -42
Alcorn State has been beaten by 40+ several times this year. Baylor is going to win easily, could win by 50+.

NBA
Boston -6
Memphis is coming off a big win against the Nets. Life without Ja Morant will not be easy and it starts tonight.


Let’s Get Weird
 Nothing today.

Basketball
2020-2021 Season Record
NBA Record 1-3 25%
NCAA Record 2-1 66.66%
Hoops Parlay Record 1-1 +190

NFL
2020 Season Record
Overall 127-103 55.22%
Platinum 2-5 28.57%
Premium 23-14 62.16%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 25-19 56.81%

Last night was great. Drake won and covered. My hoops parlay came in with only one game being in doubt. Lastly, I noticed later in the evening that Draft Kings offered a 100% boost on one NFL bet for the Monday night game. I took the Bills -7 and boosted them to plus money. The downside is the max bet is $50 on these type of boosts, but I will take it as the Bills rolled easily.

NBA Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
Draft Kings is offering a 20% boost on one NBA game per day for the rest of 2020. I boosted the Cavs up to plus money when laying the three points. The rest of the DK boosts are not that great and carry a little more risk than the boost is worth.

For today, I am looking into a few games.

NCAAB
Nothing for today. I did almost play Houston -8.5, but Tulsa is not horrendous, so I decided to pass.

NBA
Cavs -3
I have no idea how the Cavs may just move to 4-0 on the year. No Kevin Love for the Cavs, but the Knicks are missing a bunch of people and coming off a big win over the Bucks.  As weird as it is, Alec Burks being downgraded to doubtful makes the Knicks bench insanely bad. I mean it was already bad before all of their injuries to start the season, but the bench is going to be decimated tonight. Major minutes may be in line for the starters.


Let’s Get Weird
LA Clippers ML/Cavs -3/Houston Cougars ML Parlay +177
Clippers after that horrid blowout loss, Cavs I am already on and I think Houston win, but it could be tight.

Basketball
2020-2021 Season Record
NBA Record 1-2 33.3%
NCAA Record 2-1 66.66%
Hoops Parlay Record 1-0 +290

NFL
2020 Season Record
Overall 127-103 55.22%
Platinum 2-5 28.57%
Premium 23-14 62.16%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 25-19 56.81%

First, I want to say make sure you are following me on Twitter as I am posting plays there when I do not have time for a write up.

If you do not bet the Bills Spread the Love FD promo with the Bills at +101 tonight, then you hate money.

NBA Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
Nothing worth mentioning. I assume this will improve as the NFL fades and the NBA ascends to the top of the sports world.

For today, I am looking into a few games.

NCAAB
Drake -5 (5 PM)
Drake played this same team yesterday and easily won and covered. Why would today be any different? This is not the NBA.

NBA
Nothing for me tonight.


Let’s Get Weird
ATL ML/UTA ML/ DEN ML/Buffalo Bills ML/Drake ML Parlay +290
I am betting on the NBA teams that struggled early and need a win and going against the worst team in the league. I think the Bills win and take care of business. Obviously, I am on Drake.

NBA Record
1-2 33.3%

NCAA Record
1-1 50%

NFL
2020 Season Record
Overall 127-102 55.46%
Platinum 2-5 28.57%
Premium 23-14 62.16%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 25-19 56.81%

I will be updating this throughout the weekend as the sites post their odds boosts. Many of the major sites are offering holiday gifts, or treats, but you have to log in and see what you get daily. I mentioned some of them below, as well as what I received. I assume Fan Duel will offer something too eventually. I will also continue to post my plays as we progress toward the NFL weekend.

Make sure you listen to my podcast with Jeff Collins from Numberball.com, it is also posted on You Tube.  Please like and subscribe here. We break down every game against the spread and give you our picks at the end.  

Week 16 Odds Boost You Should Consider
Draft Kings
Giving away a gift boost per day. You have to opt in daily to see what you get. I got the Lakers +500 to win the title. Not bad, but $10 max bet.

Fan Duel
Pat’s Picks
Not posted yet.

Extra Points for Extra Pay
Not posted yet.

Minus Three’s Boost
Not posted yet.


Single Game Parlay
They keep changing how this works and what you need to make sure you get a refund if it loses. This is not as great as it once was.


Fox Bet
Giving everyone a free bet. Log in and open your chest. Mine was $1. LOL.

If anything else is posted on sites, I will mention them on Twitter.

Plays I Will Be On
TBD

These lines are based on the Westgate Super Contest and lock on Wednesday night.

Computer Model
Platinum Plays
None

Premium Plays
CIN +8.5
ATL +10.5

Regular Plays
MIN +7
TB -9.5
SF +5
MIA -3
NYJ +9.5
PIT +2
JAX +7.5
NYG +11
DEN +3
CAR +2.5
DAL +2
LAR +2
TEN +3.4
NE +7

2020 Season Record
Overall 119-96 55.35%
Platinum 2-5 28.57%
Premium 21-14 60%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 23-19 54.76%

Basketball is finally back in our lives full time. I have slowly been betting college hoops and sharing my plays with a few people. It has gone well, but I need to make these public for full transparency. I will not be counting those that I already have given out since; I did not post them publicly for everyone to see.

Last night was the NBA appetizer and tonight is the main course. There are thirteen games tonight! If you have not done so, you should be joining us over on Numberball.com to use the optimizer and read the daily rundown. If there is one sport, you for sure need to look at projections in order to play DFS it is the NBA. One small injury could alter a team’s minute distribution or rotations and make certain players significantly more valuable.

I must say that for the first big slate of NBA games, the odds boosts are weak. I am not sure what I expected, but it was a lot more than this. Draft Kings has one boost everyone must bet the max available. While Fan Duel has an interesting money line parlay boost, the news that James Harden may have to sit for his extra-curricular activities make it easy to avoid that situation.

NBA Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
Draft Kings
Joel Embiid over 7.5 point in the first Sixers game +100.
This has a max bet of $25, but is free money. His actual prop should be somewhere in the mid to high twenties.

For today, I am looking into a few games.

NCAAB
UNC Wilmington -19 (12 PM)
I have had success betting against bad teams recently. Due to Covid and travel, many teams are playing some bottom feeders and blowouts have become pretty routine. I am expecting the same here. Delaware State is 0-3 losing by 60, 26, and 28 points. This feels like another blowout incoming.

Washington State -17.5 (5 PM)
Same as the game above. Northwestern State is 1-9 and lost by 20+ in five of their losses. NWST’s last four games have seen them lose by 27, 27, 38, and 17.

NBA
Charlotte -2 @ Cleveland
Charlotte was a lot better and competitive last year than I expected. While they split their two games last year, the Hornets got significantly better. I cannot say the same about the Cavs.

Milwaukee -3.5 @ Boston
When the Celtics beat the Bucks last year their leading scorer was Kemba Walker. Now, Walker is hurt, Gordon Hayward is gone and the Celtics are just not as good as last year. I think the Bucks will be very good and I could see the Celtics struggling to start without Kemba Walker. Two road favorites tonight, this should go well.

NBA Record
0-0 0%

NCAA Record
0-0 0%

On Sunday October 11, the Los Angeles Lakers won the NBA Championship. On Monday October 12, I made my first wager for this upcoming season. I saw the Golden State Warriors as excellent bounce back candidates. The Warriors were listed at +1400 to win the NBA title. A healthy Klay Thompson, Steph Curry and Draymond Green along with the second pick in the draft and a large trade exception. Sign me up! Every other team that went deep in the playoffs would be facing the shortest rest in NBA history before the season started. The Warriors essentially took the entire season off after their marathon stretch of NBA titles and deep playoff runs.

The Warriors odds had dropped to around +800 to win the title. I felt like I had great value. Remember, it is not always about picking the winner, but getting the best value on a bet that you can always hedge.

Then Klay Thompson got hurt.

At this point, I could just bemoan the situation and realize I was stuck with a ticket that seemed less likely to ever come to fruition, or I could add more at a better number. Guess what I picked? Jeff Collins laid out a solid argument, as to why the Warriors could still contend and obviously, I did not need a lot of pushing to agree as I was on the Warriors before the Klay injury. You should listen to Jeff’s NBA season preview pods that can be found here and here.

Now, I have the Warriors at +1400 and +2500. I also bet the Warriors to make the playoffs at -151.

Maybe I am crazy, but if Kelly Oubre and Andrew Wiggins can be 90% of what Klay Thompson and Andrew Iguodola were on the original Warriors teams, they can compete. Factor in that James Wiseman is the great unknown. He could be amazing and the Warriors seem to think he just might be, then why can’t Golden State? The Warriors still own Minnesota’s top three protected pick in 2021 and if it carries over it is unprotected in 2022. That pick has a tremendous amount of value and if Golden State is in the thick of things comes March and could be flipped for a real asset. If the Warriors ended up as a top three seed in the Western Conference it would not shock me.

I always like to have a team on each side of the league for a futures ticket and picking an Eastern Conference runner, with odds that I like has not been easy. However, one team has clearly gotten significantly better, and may improve during the season. Here is a quick rundown of how everyone finished the regular season last year in the East.

1. Milwaukee
2. Toronto
3. Boston
4. Indiana
5. Miami
6. Philly
7. Brooklyn
8. Orlando
9. Charlotte
10. Washington
11. Chicago
12. New York
13. Detroit
14. Atlanta
15. Cleveland

 We can eliminate many of these teams easily. While Atlanta, Washington and Charlotte will be a lot better, none of them will contend to actually win the East. Brooklyn is the obvious easy choice as most improved, but I am not looking at any team that has a first time coach and Kyrie Irving figuring prominently.

Before last season many people, including myself were very high on the Sixers. Plenty of NBA media also picked them to win the East. Now ask yourself, are they better now than last year?

The Sixers added the following off the court.
One of the best GM’s in the league in Daryl Morey.
One of the most respected coaches in the league in Doc Rivers.

No matter your opinion on them, they are both significant upgrades at their respective positions and professionals who will make an immediate impact.

On the court, the Sixers flipped Josh Richardson for Seth Curry. Turned Al Horford’s contract into Danny Green. Add in a few draft picks for depth and the Sixers are primed to be the team they were supposed to be last year.

Oh yeah, they may also flip Ben Simmons for James Harden in the future. My belief is the Sixers want to see how their newly built roster with a brand new head coach may look. The Philadelphia schedule appears to be very soft at the start. Just look at this.
Wash
NY
Cle
Tor
Orl
Char
Char
Wash
Brk

The Sixers could start strong and be 8-0 before playing the Nets in early January. This is a long explanation to say that I bet the Sixers at +2500 to win the NBA title. They are already down to +1700 in most spots.

My Predictions for the NBA Season
Best Record Milwaukee Bucks
Worst Record Detroit Pistons
Most Improved Player Ja Morant
Rookie of the Year LaMelo Ball
MVP Luka (But I don’t like any of the bets)
Eastern Conference Sixers Over Bucks
Western Conference Lakers over Mavs
NBA Finals Lakers over Sixers

My Bets
Warriors NBA Champions +1400 and +2500
Sixers NBA Champions +2500
Warriors to make playoffs -151
Most Improved Player Ja Morant +2400

I will be posting more wagers through the season and tracking them here. I have avoided any win total or win percentage bets due to the unknown schedule in the future. Plus, if my money is going to be tied up for a long time frame, I prefer it be for bigger payouts. Yes, I did have the Lakers at +400 for a long time last year though, but that was pre-pandemic.

NBA Record
0-0 0%

NCAA Record
0-0 0%

Sometimes an odds boost looks too good to be true. Sometimes a certain team keeps being placed in odds boosts. Why? Are they a public team that may garner attention? Are they an island game that everyone is going to watch? If so, what side will the public overwhelming be on in that game?

We have this exact scenario in the NFL today. The public is on Green Bay and Buffalo. The odds boosts are all over Buffalo. Seriously, most of the major sites have the Bills in some odds boost. This is where we need to be smart when looking at the big picture. The books have no issue taking on a ton of Buffalo money, in odds boosts, straight bets, teasers and parlays. It really makes you wonder why, but you should be able to figure that out.

Make sure you listen to my podcast with Jeff Collins from Numberball.com, it is also posted on You Tube.  Please like and subscribe here. We break down every game against the spread and give you our picks at the end.  

My NBA season long bets and preview will be coming early next week. I am also starting to look into NCAA betting and of course will track and record every bet I give out for full transparency.

Week 15 Odds Boost You Should Consider
Draft Kings
Joel Embiid over 7.5 point in the first Sixers game +100.
This has a max bet of $25, but is free money. His actual prop should be somewhere in the mid to high twenties.

Why did Draft Kings throw the Bills in every odds boost? Hmmmm.

Fan Duel
Pat’s Picks
GB -.5/Tenn -3.5/Ind +.5 +170
This looks like the best boost of the weekend on FD. Bet your max $50.

Extra Points for Extra Pay
Buff -4.5/Cle -4.5/Min -2.5 +520
The books keep throwing Buffalo in these odds boosts. Hmmmm.

Buff/SEA/KC ML Parlay +270
Wow, the Bills show up again…..Hmmmmmmmm.

Minus Three’s Boost
Eagles +6.5 +110
If you listened to the pod, you know I am on the Eagles. I will go ahead and fire the $50 max on this one.


Single Game Parlay
They keep changing how this works and what you need to make sure you get a refund if it loses. This is not as great as it once was.


Fox Bet
Buff/GB Money line Parlay +100
Why do you think the Bills keep showing up in these parlays? Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm.

If anything else is posted on sites, I will mention them on Twitter.

Plays I Will Be On (Line I bet is listed first, followed by current line)
Denver +7 (Now +6)
The Bills are coming off a massive win and now go on the road where the Broncos have not quit on the season. I think Bills win an ugly one, but this is a great let down spot. Denver can and will run the ball on Buffalo, something the Steelers could not take advantage of. Buffalo is the Admiral Akbar play of the week.

CAR +8.5 (Now +7.5
Teddy Bridgewater has been excellent as a dog this season and his entire career. Outside of the two Tampa Bay games, the Panthers have not been beaten by more than eight points, in any other game. Packers win, but do not cover the spread here.

Minn -3
Vikings win last week if they had a kicker. This line looks dramatically different if that is the case. Bears played their best game of the season last week. Inconsistent teams remain just that, inconsistent.

These lines are based on the Westgate Super Contest and lock on Wednesday night.

Computer Model
Platinum Plays
None

Premium Plays
None

Regular Plays
LAC +3.5
CAR +8.5
BUF -6.5
IND -7
DET +10.5
NYJ +17
TB -6
MIA -2.5
WAS +5.4
CHI +3
JAX +13.5
NYG +4
PHI +6
NO +3
SF -3
PIT -13


2020 Season Record
Overall 113-89 55.94%
Platinum 2-5 28.57%
Premium 21-14 60%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 23-19 54.76%

Make sure you listen to my podcast with Jeff Collins from Numberball.com, it is also posted on You Tube.  Please like and subscribe here. We break down every game against the spread and give you our picks at the end.

Due to the profit boost at DK, I think you should only bet on their site this week, unless a particular odds boost is worth investing in.

Week 14 Odds Boost You Should Consider
Draft Kings
20% on every single NFL game

After I made fun of DK a few weeks ago, this is very solid. Frankly, you should only bet games here using this promo this week unless there is an egregious line difference.  

Packers/Saints/Seahawks to Win +120 (From -134)
This looks pretty good to me as well. Seahawks will not lose two in a row. The Packers are now up to almost 10-point favorites. The Saints, well I could see that being an issue because I cannot quit the Eagles for some reason.

Fan Duel
Pat’s Picks
NYG +10.5/KC -.5/Jets +20.5/GB -.5/NO -.5
So I admit this looks tasty at +400, but I will not be max betting this. The Jets on the road scare me, no matter how bad Seattle has been. I also want to root for the Dolphins and think they make things interesting. I am sure I will be on this, but not as much as I can.

Extra Points for Extra Pay
This includes two totals and Minnesota +7.5. I was on the Vikings, but have cooled dramatically since recording the pod. Pass for me.

Single Game Parlay
They keep changing how this works and what you need to make sure you get a refund if it loses. This is not as great as it once was.


Fox Bet
Derrick Henry and James Robinson combined over 200+rushing yards.
This goes from -125 to +100 and feels like Henry could explode here. Robinson has been very steady.

If anything else is posted on sites, I will mention them on Twitter.

Plays I Will Be On
CIN +3.5
Dallas should not be giving more than three to anyone on the road.

LVR +3
This is only if Josh Jacobs plays. Perfect public perception game, where if this game was played two weeks ago the line would have been LVR -3.

PIT +1.5
Coming off two bad games; I am all over my team.

BAL -1
I bet this at -1 the moment it opened. I need to see Baker do it in a big game before I believe it. This would qualify.

These lines are based on the Westgate Super Contest and lock on Wednesday night.

Computer Model
Platinum Plays
None

Premium Plays
CIN +3.5
PIT +2.5
BAL -1

Regular Plays
NE +5.5
GB -7.5
TEN -7.5
ARZ -1.5
CHI +1
DEN +3
MIN +6.5
MIA +7
IND -3
NYJ +13.5
LAC +2.5
NO -7
WAS +3

2020 Season Record
Overall 104-82 55.91%
Platinum 2-5 28.57%
Premium 20-12 62.50%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 22-17 56.41%

What happened? The sites used to all have solid odds boosts and were competing for your wagering dollars. Now, it is week 13 and man, there are not many great options. Of course, all the sites do have some offerings, but there is not that one wager I feel like I need to be on. As was the case last week, be careful on super public wagers. I do not always heed my own advice, but public wagers to win too. There is one game I bet very early in the week and it was the Colts -3. Houston has lost all of their weapons. The Colts defense is good and should have no issues slowing down a defense throwing to several seldom-used pass catchers.

Make sure you listen to my podcast with Jeff Collins from Numberball.com, it is also posted on You Tube.  Make sure to like and subscribe here. We break down every game against the spread and give you our picks at the end.

Week 13 Odds Boost You Should Consider
Draft Kings
20%Parlay boost on a 4-team parlay.
I wish they would allow me to do this on a money line parlay.

Besides this, nothing is worthy of even being mentioned.

Fan Duel
Pat’s Picks Mia -5.5, GB -2.5 +125.
This looks pretty good, even though I like the Eagles.

Extra Points for Extra Pay LVR -7.5, LAR -1.5, CLE +6. +520
I cannot get behind all of these. I will be fading these but the number is nice.

The other NFL odds boosts all feature at least one game that I am not able to get behind.

Single Game Parlay
They keep changing how this works and what you need to make sure you get a refund if it loses. This is not as great as it once was.


Fox Bet
They only have odds boosts listed for one game. This feels extremely odd considering it is Friday.

If anything else is posted on sites, I will mention them on Twitter.

Plays I Will Be On
IND -3
I bet the Colts early this week and still like them at -3.  

BAL -7.5
I expect Lamar to be cleared and play. If that is the case, what a fantastic get right spot for the Ravens.  

CHI -3
Well, this is a bet on the Bears defense. Provided D’Andre Swift and Kenny Golladay are out the Lions offense has been dreadful. In Mitch, we trust.

SF +2.5
The Niners are getting healthy at the right time and the Bills offense is not the same without John Brown.

These lines are based on the Westgate Super Contest and lock on Wednesday night.

Computer Model
Platinum Plays
None

Premium Plays
NO -3
IND -3.5

Regular Plays
JAX +10
CLE +5.5
DET +3
LVR -8.5
CIN +11.5
ARZ +3
NYG +10
GB -8.5
NE PK
DEN +14
WFT +7.5
SF +2.5
BAL -9.5

2020 Season Record
Overall 93-78 54.39%
Platinum 2-5 28.57%
Premium 18-12 60%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 20-17 54.05%