Covid seems to be taking over the NBA and NFL season at this exact moment. We have had games canceled and teams like the Browns decimated. While we want everyone to be healthy and safe, the point of this blog is to improve everyone as a sports bettor. Sometimes that means acting fast and trying to take advantage of situations as news breaks. When Aaron Rodgers tested positive for Covid, I missed getting a bet in by seconds. As news breaks on Twitter, you have maybe two minutes to run and get a wager in to take advantage of the breaking news. (I will mention again that Fox Bet is the slowest to pull games and maybe you should head there first to get a wager in. I try DK first knowing I have an extra minute to get to Fox.)

When the twitter rumors started to come out about the Browns, I felt it was best to make a wager on the Raiders based on that speculation. I locked in Raiders +4.5. I look at this in two ways. If the rumors are correct, I will get a fantastic number as the line moves. If the rumors are wrong, I can always cash out of the bet, or buy out of it and bet the other side, and only lose the juice. If you are a $100 a game bettor, this would be a $10 loss on one of the sides. I am more than willing to risk the juice to get a fantastic number. In this case, the news was correct. I have the Raiders +4.5. Currently, the Raiders are now -3.5 points. Nick Mullins is expected to start for the Browns Saturday.

I have two options at this point. I can sit tight and hold my great Raiders value at +4.5. That is the boring option that does not give us a chance to maximize profits. I could take the Browns at +3.5. That would give me a window where each team winning by three or four points would win me both wagers. Lastly, I can also take the Browns money line at +160. That would give me a smaller window to win both wagers, but I would have to lay out less money.

I will be taking the Browns in some capacity Saturday. Nevertheless, the entire point of this is that you must act quickly. Once news hits, I am immediately rushing to place a bet. To me, there is almost no risk. You can always cash out of a bet or buy out of a position. Instead, because I acted fast, I have a risk free situation where I will try to win both wagers.

As usual, no odds boosts listed on most sites at this point.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

Computer Model Plays
Platinum
None

Premium
NE+2.5
NO +11

Regular Plays
CLE +1.5
BUFF -10.5
DET +13.5
NYJ +10
NYG +11
WAS +7
PIT +1.5
HOU +3.5
CIN +2.5
ATL +9
LAR -4.5
BAL +5.5
MIN -4

Football Odds Boost You Should Consider Betting
Fan Duel

Draft Kings

Barstool Sportsbook
Reminder, never bet with barstool (Their employee boosts) and do not bet timed boosts for a quarter or half and needing to score.

Fox Bet
IND/LVR to both win +187
This parlay pays +215 over on FD, easy pass.

BUFF/ARZ/TENN to all win +160
I am on the Steelers here, so this is an easy pass.  This should pay +157. What a boost. I am out.

NFL
Pit +1

Let’s Get Weird
5 Team 6.5 Point Teaser +350 (DK)
LAC +10/NE +9/PIT +7.5/CIN +9/PHI -.5

NFL Computer Model
Overall 96-112 46.15%
Platinum 5-9 35.71%
Premium 24-21 53.33%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 29-30 49.15%

Our Plays
NFL
Overall 21-19 52.5%
NFL Props 1-0 100%
NFL Odds Boosts 12-37 -1315
NFL Teasers and Parlays 2-2 +105

College Football
Overall 7-1 87.5%
College Odds Boosts 2-0 +200
College Teasers and Parlays 1-1 +154

Combined
Overall 28-20 58.33%
Odds Boosts 19-33 -815
Teasers and Parlays 3-2 +359

What a fantastic Thursday night game. We get a team at home getting points, playing a team they always play well against. The Chargers defense was constructed specifically to slow Patrick Mahomes down. Nothing like betting against the Chiefs in primetime.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

Computer Model Plays
Platinum
None

Premium


Regular Plays
LAC +3.5

Football Odds Boost You Should Consider Betting
Fan Duel
Mahomes 1+ Passing TD in Each Half +170
I do not bet timed boosts. Mahomes prop is set to 2.5 passing TD’s and the under is heavily juiced. Pass.

Draft Kings
Mahomes 325+ Passing Yards +310
Mahomes prop is set to 280.5. Mahomes is +230 to throw for 325+ over on Fan Duel. Mahomes threw for 260 yards in their first matchup. The Chargers defense was specifically built to slow down Mahomes. I think that continues tonight. Pass here.

60+ Points +225
The total is set to 52.5. You can bet over 60.5 at +210 on Fan Duel. This is a boost and if you think the offenses go crazy, by all means fire away. As I stated, I think Chargers defense slows down the Chiefs enough that betting overs tonight is the wrong play. Pass.


Hill to have 100+ Receiving Yards +205
Tyreek’s prop is set to 79.5. This is set to +188 on another website. Ehhh, I have an idea in my head of how this game will go and it does not revolve around Tyreek having a massive game. Pass for me.

Barstool Sportsbook
Reminder, never bet with barstool (Their employee boosts) and do not bet timed boosts for a quarter or half and needing to score.

Mahomes and Herbert to throw for 300+ yards +375
This parlay pays +349 on another website. Again, I am not a fan of betting the over here. Look, I could be very wrong. The Chiefs have been playing to unders most of the year and I think that trend continues. Pass for me.

Fox Bet
KC to win/Mahomes 250+ Passing Yards/Kelce 50+ Yards +200
Kelce has struggled mightily this year and I think you know where I am going with this game. Pass.

NFL
LAC +3.5
Home dog who always plays well against the Chiefs. I am in. I am highly debating placing this in my contests as well.

Let’s Get Weird
5 Team 6.5 Point Teaser +350 (DK)
LAC +10/NE +9/PIT +7.5/CIN +9/PHI -.5

NFL Computer Model
Overall 96-111 46.37%
Platinum 5-9 35.71%
Premium 24-21 53.33%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 29-30 49.15%

Our Plays
NFL
Overall 21-18 53.84%
NFL Props 1-0 100%
NFL Odds Boosts 12-37 -1315
NFL Teasers and Parlays 2-2 +105

College Football
Overall 7-1 87.5%
College Odds Boosts 2-0 +200
College Teasers and Parlays 1-1 +154

Combined
Overall 28-19 59.57%
Odds Boosts 19-33 -815
Teasers and Parlays 3-2 +359

We are back and have a small slate tonight. The NFL game is clearly the focus tonight. I will also be seeing Spider-Man: No Way Home in the early afternoon too.

As Covid is decimating some NBA and NFL teams, please be aware and follow injury information on Twitter. It can help you get a great number; I will explain more on that later.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

NBA Model Plays
DET +10.5
PHI +1
HOU +5
PHO -8





*If two games or more reach a certain level, we will label them highest rated in model. The record at bottom will be updated to note we may have more than one top play per day from the computer model.

Basketball Odds Boosts You Should Consider BettingMikal Bridges and Beal to make a combines 3+ 3’s +115 (DK)
Remember, combined boosts are never that great as parlays pay significantly more.
Bridges prop is set to 1.5 and the under is heavily juiced.
Beal prop is set to 1.5 and the over is lightly juiced. As usual, you are better parlaying them to both go over. Yes, Beal could make two and bridges only one, but I like the higher payout. I cannot believe I have to write about a Mikal Bridges odds boost. Pass.


Embiid and KD to combine for 60+ points +125 (DK)
Remember, combined boosts are never that great as parlays pay significantly more.
This is a back to back for the Sixers and nothing is listed for Embiid. KD’s prop is set to 33.5 though and normally, Embiid is in the 26-27.5 range. This is probably a fair number if Embiid plays. He did play 37 minutes last night and has been a surprise scratch before. Pass.


BRK/NYK/PHO to all win +275 (Fox)
This should pay +349. Easy pass.

NBA
PHO -8
This is a road back to back for the now struggling Wizards.

Let’s Get Weird

NBA Record 2021-2022
NBA Record 16-22 42.10%
College Record 2-2 50%
Hoops Combined Record 18-23 43.90%
Hoops Parlay Record   5-9 +369
Hoops Odds Boosts 17-25 +1040
Hoops Player Props 1-5 -465
NBA Model Highest Rated 19-29 39.58%
NBA Model 187-187 50%

Family stuff going on so this will be quick!

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

NBA Model Plays
ATL -7.5
CLE -9
PHI -7
DAL +1.5
OKC +4.5
IND -2
SAS -3
DEN -4
SAC +2
LAC +9.5
POR +3







*If two games or more reach a certain level, we will label them highest rated in model. The record at bottom will be updated to note we may have more than one top play per day from the computer model.

Basketball Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting

NBA

Let’s Get Weird

NBA Record 2021-2022
NBA Record 16-22 %
College Record 2-2 50%
Hoops Combined Record 18-23 %
Hoops Parlay Record   5-9 +369
Hoops Odds Boosts 17-25 +1040
Hoops Player Props 1-5 -465
NBA Model Highest Rated 19-29 %
NBA Model 183-181 %

Jokic getting kicked out with six minutes left and one assist away from a triple-double is so tilting. I mean, the reigning MVP is not allowed to argue a non-foul call. The one technical, I get it. The other? Come on. Lame. Oh well, we move on. This slate was looking terrible with the Bulls game canceled, but now the Nets have a Covid outbreak.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

NBA Model Plays
GSW -4.5
TOR +5 (Highest Rating in Model)
PHO -1.5







*If two games or more reach a certain level, we will label them highest rated in model. The record at bottom will be updated to note we may have more than one top play per day from the computer model.

Basketball Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
SGP Week Long Free Bet (DK)
Here we go again. If you bet a $10 SGP every day for a certain amount of days, you earn a free bet. Seven days’ worth gets you a $100 free bet. Therefore, I will do this and post mine daily. Please tweet at me if I forget and do not post one!  I think this ended last night. I cannot recall.

25+ 3’s made in Suns vs. Blazers +100 (DK)
The Suns average 11.2 made 3’s per game.
The Blazers average 13.0 made 3’s per game.
This is right on the line here, but on a back to back I am fading the Suns offense. Pass for me.

Draymond and Randle to combine for 12+ assists +100 (DK)
You know how I feel about combined boosts.
Dray’s prop is set to 6.5 and the over is juiced. Randle’s is set to 5.5 and the under is juiced. As usual, you are better parlaying them to both go over. Pass.


FVV and Patty Mills to combine for 6+ made 3’s +100 (DK)
You know how I feel about combined boosts.
Mills is set to 3.5 and the under is juiced.
FVV is set to 2.5 and the over is juiced.
You can parlay them to both make 3+ for +126 over on FD. Pass for me.


BRK/GSW/POR to all win +350 (Fox)
Play spot the dog with every Fox Bet parlay boost. Tonight it is Portland. This should pay +337. What a weak boost. Pass.

NBA
TOR +5
Feels like KD sitting is the next shoe to drop.

Let’s Get Weird

NBA Record 2021-2022
NBA Record 15-22 40.54%
College Record 2-2 50%
Hoops Combined Record 17-23 42.50%
Hoops Parlay Record   5-9 +369
Hoops Odds Boosts 17-25 +1040
Hoops Player Props 1-5 -465
NBA Model Highest Rated 18-29 38.29%
NBA Model 180-181 49.86%

Would you look at that we hit that +1500 SGP we tweeted out. Just a few more days and we will get that $100 free bet too. Remember to take advantage of opportunities where you are refunded, or it is risk free. In this case, if you make $70 worth of SGP wagers, you will get a $100 free bet at weeks end. Now, we made a nice profit and will eventually get the free bet. However, we are back at it tonight.

We are officially into the injury and Covid craziness of the NBA. Will the Bulls even be able to play tomorrow?

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

NBA Model Plays
CLE -5
GSW -3.5 (Highest Rated in Model)
TOR -4.5
HOU +10
MIL -1.5 (Highest Rated in Model)
PHI -4
CHA +2.5
DEN -4
PHO -3.5


*If two games or more reach a certain level, we will label them highest rated in model. The record at bottom will be updated to note we may have more than one top play per day from the computer model.

Basketball Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
SGP Week Long Free Bet (DK)
Here we go again. If you bet a $10 SGP every day for a certain amount of days, you earn a free bet. Seven days’ worth gets you a $100 free bet. Therefore, I will do this and post mine daily. Please tweet at me if I forget and do not post one!

Giannis to score 34+ points +320 (DK)
Giannis’s point prop is set to 26.5.
Giannis is +440 to score 35+. This number is a little low; it should be closer to +350. Pass for me.


Jokic to record a triple-double +250 (DK)
Jokic is +210 on other sites to record a triple-double. If you like, him you can fire away. Jokic has had a triple double in three of his last four games, missing in his last game by two assists while sitting most of the fourth quarter. The Nuggets have injury issue and if Will Barton sits again, Jokic will increase his already insane usage. I am in. I think he gets there again.


CP3 to record 12+ assists +220 (DK)
There is no PG in this game. Paul’s assist prop is set to 9.5 and the under is every so slightly juiced. This pays +265 over on FD. Pass.

MIA/BOS/MEM to all win +1100 (Fox)
These teams are all dogs. This should pay +1270. Pass.


CHA/DEN/PHX to all win +525 (Barstool)
At least there is only one dog here in Charlotte. This should pay +462. I cannot back the Hornets with all the Covid issues at the moment. Pass.


Giannis and Tatum to each score 30+ +600 (Barstool)
Giannis’s point prop is set to 26.5.
Tatum’s point prop is set to 26.5.
This should pay +535. If the Celtics were not brining Brown back, maybe I would be interested. Pass.

NBA
GSW -3.5
Coming off a loss and Curry can break the record.

MIL -1.5
The Celtics add back Brown, but who knows how that will go. Bucks playing well on this road trip.

CLE -5
An injured Heat team playing a solid defensive team that continues to grind people up. I am in.

Let’s Get Weird

NBA Record 2021-2022
NBA Record 14-20 41.17%
College Record 2-2 50%
Hoops Combined Record 16-21 43.24%
Hoops Parlay Record   5-9 +369
Hoops Odds Boosts 17-24 +1140
Hoops Player Props 1-5 -465
NBA Model Highest Rated 18-27 40%
NBA Model 176-176 50%

This is going to be a very good game, but I have no feel for it. The computer likes the Cardinals and the professionals have come in on the Rams moving the line to a flat two. We all keep disrespecting the Cardinals, yet they keep winning. The Cards side here looks almost too easy. When has Matthew Stafford ever won a big game against a team with a winning record? Yes, this is not Detroit, but still, you have to prove it. He will get his chance tonight. I am passing on this game completely, but this is a great night to make some showdown lineups and bet the NBA.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

Computer Model Plays
Platinum
None

Premium


Regular Plays
ARZ -2.5

Football Odds Boost You Should Consider Betting
Fan Duel
Kupp and Nuk to both score +500
This should pay +333. If you want to fire, go ahead. Kupp is minus money, while Hopkins is plus money to score. I am not a fan here. I am out.

Draft Kings
Murray to throw for 300+ Yards +235
Murray’s prop is set to 265.5.
Murray is +194 to throw for 300+. Murray has just two 300+ yard games this season. I am out on this.


60+ points scored +240
Do we think the Rams can do this in a big game?
This pays +250 over on FD. Easy pass.


Kupp to score a TD in first half +290
I do not bet timed boosts like this.

Barstool Sportsbook
Reminder, never bet with barstool (Their employee boosts) and do not bet timed boosts for a quarter or half and needing to score.

Lots of Cards boosts on Barstool, but man I do not know I want to be on Arizona. Pass.

Fox Bet
Kupp and Nuk to both score +400
Does this look familiar. Easy pass when another boost is identical with a better price.

Stafford and Murray 275+ Passing Yards Each +200
Murray’s prop is set to 265.5.
Stafford’s prop is set to 283.5.
If you parlay both of them to throw for 275+ it should pay +226. Pass.

NFL

College Football

Let’s Get Weird

NFL Computer Model
Overall 96-110 46.60%
Platinum 5-9 35.71%
Premium 24-21 53.33%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 29-30 49.15%

Our Plays
NFL
Overall 21-18 53.84%
NFL Props 1-0 100%
NFL Odds Boosts 12-37 -1315
NFL Teasers and Parlays 2-2 +105

College Football
Overall 7-1 87.5%
College Odds Boosts 2-0 +200
College Teasers and Parlays 1-1 +154 Combined
Overall 28-19 59.57%
Odds Boosts 19-33 -815
Teasers and Parlays 3-2 +359

Quick post before NFL.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

NBA Model Plays
NYK +6
DET+7
SAS -2
DAL -4
MIN +1.5
ORL +10.5

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

Computer Model Plays
Platinum
None

Premium
LVR +9.5
NYG +10

Regular Plays
BAL +2.5
JAX +8.5
NO -6
DAL -4
CAR -2.5
SEA -7.5
DET +8.5
CIN +1
BUF +3.5
CHI +12.5
ARZ -2.5

Football Odds Boost You Should Consider Betting
Fan Duel
KC/TB/GB to all win +170
This should pay +119.
Seems like everyone is on TB, or at least the public is. Be careful. Pass for me.

NYG/ATL to win +950
Ummm, no.

Brady and Allen to both throw for 300+ +320
Fox bet has the same boost at +300, pass on the Fox one obviously.
Brady is set to 306.5.
Allen is set to 295.5.
This should pay around +227. Look Buffalo cannot run. The Bucs like to throw it and will score. This is going to be high scoring. I like this. I think Buffalo may be the correct side in this game, so Allen must play well. I am in.

Draft Kings
Chubb to run for 100+ +340
Look, I love Cleveland today.
His prop is set to 70.5. He is +250 to run for 100+ over on FD. Look, I think the Browns offense gets it going today. I know that sounds insane. I am in on this considering the price and boost.

Barstool Sportsbook
Reminder, never bet with barstool (Their employee boosts) and do not bet timed boosts for a quarter or half and needing to score.

I do not like any of these.

Fox Bet
KC/SEA/DAL to all win +150
This should pay +126. This feels like a trap, especially with Dallas on the road against a suddenly resurgent WFT. I am out on this. While I do like the other two, I may make my way to being on the WFT and the points. Pass. Update: The line has moved in Dallas and I am in!

TB/DEN/LAC to all win +150
Certainly feels like books are happy to take a lot of TB money. Pass for me.

NFL
CLE -2.5

CIN +2
I know I am going against the sharps here. I think the Bengals will all be healthy and play well.

College Football

Let’s Get Weird
KC/TEN/DAL/DEN/GB ML Parlay +178
This may be a very chalky week.

NFL Computer Model
Overall 92-102 47.42%
Platinum 5-9 35.71%
Premium 24-19 55.81%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 29-28 50.87%

Our Plays
NFL
Overall 21-16 56.75%
NFL Props 1-0 100%
NFL Odds Boosts 15-35 -1685
NFL Teasers and Parlays 1-2 -073

College Football
Overall 7-1 87.5%
College Odds Boosts 2-0 +200
College Teasers and Parlays 1-1 +154 Combined
Overall 28-18 60.86%
Odds Boosts 17-32 -1185
Teasers and Parlays 2-2 +181

It was nice to hit that Barstool odds boost last night. I had a decent sweat in DFS too, but it slowed dramatically thanks to the Lakers winning in a blowout.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

NBA Model Plays
WAS +7.5
HOU +7.5
MIA +1
CLE -6
GSW -2.5
DEN +1







*If two games or more reach a certain level, we will label them highest rated in model. The record at bottom will be updated to note we may have more than one top play per day from the computer model.

Basketball Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
SGP Week Long Free Bet (DK)
Here we go again. If you bet a $10 SGP every day for a certain amount of days, you earn a free bet. Seven days’ worth gets you a $100 free bet. Therefore, I will do this and post mine daily. Please tweet at me if I forget and do not post one!

LaVine to score 15+ in first half +105 (DK)
I do not bet timed boosts like this.

Curry Brothers to combine for 10+ 3’s +220 (DK)
It is normally always better to bet a parlay than a combined boost.
Steph is set to 6.5.
Seth is set to 2.5.
If you parlay them to both go over it pays +306.

Curry to make 10+ 3’s +650 (FD)
Fox bet has the same boost at +600.
This would of course break the record. I was hoping we would get one of these boosted to +1000. Pass. This is asking an insane amount.

Mitchell and Jokic to score 25+ +200 (Fox)
Mitchell’s prop is set to 25.5 and the under is juiced.
Jokic’s prop is set to 27.5 and the under is juiced.
This should pay +157. I am in. Both players can actually go under their prop and still get there.


UTA/CLEV/MIA to all win +300 (Fox)
This should pay +270. AS always, spot the dog. Tonight it is Miami. Pass for me.



UTA/CLEV/DEN to all win +300 (Barstool)
This should pay +255. Denver is a one point road favorite. Pass for me with the tiny spreads.


Curry and Curry to each make 4+ 3’s +400 (Barstool)
Steph is set to 6.5.
Seth is set to 2.5.
This should pay +365. This is basically a bet on Seth to go over his prop by one at +400. I kind of like it. I am in. This is going to be a fun game and Seth will have open looks, he needs to shoot very well. If we are lucky, Seth will take eight threes. You should know this going in. It is risky, but I think worth the price. I am in.

NBA
GSW -2.5
I am excited for this game but think the Warriors may be too much despite the Embiid advantage.

Let’s Get Weird

NBA Record 2021-2022
NBA Record 14-19 %
College Record 2-2 50%
Hoops Combined Record 16-21 %
Hoops Parlay Record   5-9 +369
Hoops Odds Boosts 16-23 +1040
Hoops Player Props 1-5 -465
NBA Model Highest Rated 18-27 %
NBA Model 168-172 %