Every few hours someone else enters the Covid protocols.

Covid and injuries are everywhere. Be careful out there!

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

NBA Model Plays
HOU +9
ORL +6
MIA -11.5
NYK +0.5
MIN +12.5
DEN -2.5
PHO -14.5
GSW -5.5
LAL -2
MIL -3



*If two games or more reach a certain level, we will label them highest rated in model. The record at bottom will be updated to note we may have more than one top play per day from the computer model.

Basketball Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
Ja and Steph to combine for 55+ points +150 (DK)
Remember combined boosts are almost always better off parlayed.
Curry’s prop is set to 31.5 and the under is slightly juiced.
Ja’s prop is set to 22.5 and the under is juiced.
You can parlay them to both go over for +270. I actually really like Ja tonight, but as always pass on the prop and parlay the overs.


ATL/PHI to combine for 25+ Made 3’s +145 (DK)
I mean, the Hawks have like half their team on the Covid list. I am avoiding this as much as possible. The Sixers are mostly healthy. Pass.

Beal and Jokic 25+ Points Each +175 (Fox)
Beal’s prop is set to 24.5 and the under is slightly juiced.
Jokic’s prop is set to 26.5.
If you parlay them to both score 25+ is pays +212 on FD. Easy pass on this boost.

PHI/NYK/DEN to all win +320 (Fox)
This should pay +290 or so. As always with Fox, spot the dog. Tonight it is the NYK! Pass.

Embiid to score 30+ and Sixers to win +250 (FD)
Embiid’s prop is set to 27.5 and the under is juiced. This parlay should pay +163. I am taking a shot here. As long as the Hawks stay somewhat close Embiid will have a chance to get there. I am in.

NBA
Look, I am being very careful here as news changes rapidly and who knows with all these G-League players on every team.

Let’s Get Weird
Jokic over 26.5 points -110
After an off night Jokic gets to come back and play the awful Hornets interior. Oh, yes, sign me up.

NBA Record 2021-2022
NBA Record 19-23 45.23%
College Record 2-2 50%
Hoops Combined Record 21-24 %
Hoops Parlay Record   5-10 +269
Hoops Odds Boosts 18-27 +1020
Hoops Player Props 1-5 -465
NBA Model Highest Rated 19-30 38.77%
NBA Model 202-206 49.50%

Always beware when all the boosts are about one player or team. In this case, they appear to be center on George Kittle and the Niners. Assuming A.J. Browns returns for the Titans and their offense could be drastically different. Be careful just firing on the Niners. There is a reason this line looks a little too good to be true.

I said it on the radio the other night and I tweeted about it today. When Covid news or rumors hit, just bet against that team and figure it out later. I middle the Browns/Raiders last week and may have another chance this week. Saints had Covid issues; I tweeted about it and of course bet Miami +3. News officially comes out and it is now Miami -1. Where does that line end up? Do the Saints have more positives? Time will tell, but I like where I sit.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

Computer Model Plays
Platinum
None

Premium


Regular Plays
TEN +3
CLE +7.5
ARZ +1

Football Odds Boost You Should Consider Betting
Fan Duel
Kittle to have 50+ Yards and SF to win +150
Kittle’s prop is set to 70.5.
The Niners are a suspiciously small -3 tonight. This should pay +116. Look, this is really solid, unless you think the Titans show up and win. I believe that is in play. Perhaps the Niners are really good. I still will not give them the credit yet. The Titans are not good. I am passing, but I think you can 100% fire if you like the Niners to win.

Draft Kings
Jimmy G to record 300+ Passing Yards +475
This pays +360 on FD. This is a solid boost and if we expect the Titans to play well, but does this game go over. I think it could, but the prudent move is to avoid the Niners tonight.



Deebo to score 2+ TD’s +700
This is a boost as it should pay +500. I Think the Titans play well and Deebo’s targets have come down a great deal. Pass for me.

Barstool Sportsbook
Reminder, never bet with barstool (Their employee boosts) and do not bet timed boosts for a quarter or half and needing to score.

Fox Bet
Kittle 50+ Yards and a TD +200
This should pay +188. This is such a small boost, you can pass on it.

Jimmy G and Tannehill 250+ Passing Yards Each +400
Tanny’s prop is set to 214.5.
Jimmy G’s prop is set to 239.5.
This parlay should pay +503. Easy pass.

NFL

Let’s Get Weird
PHI-.5/LAR -1/GB -2 6 point teaser +140
I am asking both favorites to win tonight and Green Bay to beat the Browns by less than a field goal at home. I wonder who makes this lose. But, here we are. (This is from week 15 and uses GB from week 16.)

NFL Computer Model
Overall 106-118 47.32%
Platinum 5-9 35.71%
Premium 25-22 53.19%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 30-31 49.18%

Our Plays
NFL
Overall 22-20 52.38%
NFL Props 1-0 100%
NFL Odds Boosts 12-40 -1615
NFL Teasers and Parlays 2-3 +005

College Football
Overall 7-1 87.5%
College Odds Boosts 2-0 +200
College Teasers and Parlays 1-1 +154

Combined
Overall 29-21 58%
Odds Boosts 19-36 -1115
Teasers and Parlays 3-3 +259

Every few hours someone else enters the Covid protocols.

Covid and injuries are everywhere. Be careful out there!

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

NBA Model Plays
ORL +7
CLE +6
HOU +9.5 (Highest Rated in Model)
DEN -6.5
LAC -6



*If two games or more reach a certain level, we will label them highest rated in model. The record at bottom will be updated to note we may have more than one top play per day from the computer model.

Basketball Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
Jokic to record 55+ points/rebounds/assists +200 (DK)
Jokic’s combo here is set to 50.5 and the over is slightly juiced. This is almost a fair price, but I am going to pass. He would need a triple double and thirty points to get over this mark. Pass for me.

Auburn/Tennessee/Wash ST to all win +260 (FD)
Two of these games feature tiny spreads and while Tennessee is favored, they host a top ten team in Ohio State. Pass for me.

Jokic and Tatum to combine for 60+ points +110 (Fox)
More of this combined stuff.
Tatum’s prop is set to 29.5. Jokic is set to 28.5. You can parlay these to to both go over for +300. Easy pass.



ATL/MIL/OKC to all win +425 (Fox)
Spot the dog! This should pay +425. This is not even a boost and OKC is a dog. Pass.

DEN/MIL/LAC to all win +170 (Barstool)
This should pay +141. This looks pretty solid. All three teams are healthier than their opponent. (This is true to varying degrees.) I am taking a shot. I am in.

Jokic and Tatum to each score 25+ +100 (Barstool)
Tatum’s prop is set to 29.5.
Jokic’s prop is set to 28.5.
This should pay -131. This is an easy one. Both are expected to score 25+ easily. I am in.

NBA
Look, I am being very careful here as news changes rapidly and who knows with all these G-League players on every team.

ORL +7
I am not sure why the Hawks are this big of favorites, considering who they have available.

Let’s Get Weird

NBA Record 2021-2022
NBA Record 18-23 40%
College Record 2-2 50%
Hoops Combined Record 20-24 45.45%
Hoops Parlay Record   5-10 +269
Hoops Odds Boosts 18-25 +1220
Hoops Player Props 1-5 -465
NBA Model Highest Rated 19-29 39.58%
NBA Model 200-203 49.62%

Every few hours someone else enters the Covid protocols.

Covid and injuries are everywhere. Be careful out there!

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

NBA Model Plays
IND -1
NYK -7
POR +2
MIN +1.5
PHO -6.5





*If two games or more reach a certain level, we will label them highest rated in model. The record at bottom will be updated to note we may have more than one top play per day from the computer model.

Basketball Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
Duncan Robinson and Caris LeVert to combine for 5+ made 3’s +150 (DK)
Robinson’s prop is set to 2.5 and the over is heavily juiced.
LeVert’s prop is set to 1.5 and the over is slightly juiced. As usual with combined boosts, you can parlay them to both go over for +206. Pass for me. I would rather parlay their over’s.


Lebron to record a double-double +140 (DK)
LeBron is +110 to record a  double-double on another site.
With Davis out, LeBron’s rebound numbers have climbed. I am looking at this as LeBron to record 10 rebounds at +140. I was going to bet this but over on FD LeBron is +160 to record 10+ rebounds. Pass for me.

NBA
Look, I am being very careful here as news changes rapidly and who knows with all these G-League players on every team.

Let’s Get Weird

NBA Record 2021-2022
NBA Record 18-23 40%
College Record 2-2 50%
Hoops Combined Record 20-24 45.45%
Hoops Parlay Record   5-10 +269
Hoops Odds Boosts 18-25 +1220
Hoops Player Props 1-5 -465
NBA Model Highest Rated 19-29 39.58%
NBA Model 198-200 %

I am happy we are getting all the games in. There are very few odds boosts posted at this time. I suppose since we do not even know who will be cleared to play yet, so the sites are waiting.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

Computer Model Plays
Platinum
None

Premium


Regular Plays
WAS +7
LAR -4.5

Football Odds Boost You Should Consider Betting
Fan Duel

Draft Kings
Hurts to record 300+ Passing/Rushing yards +260
Passing prop is set to 189.5.
Rushing prop is set to 48.5. If you can add that is 238 yards total. You can parlay Hurts to go over each at +274. I am passing as the parlay pays more and you more than likely have to hit both overs to get there. Pass.

Barstool Sportsbook
Reminder, never bet with barstool (Their employee boosts) and do not bet timed boosts for a quarter or half and needing to score.

PHI and LAR to win by 7+ points +300
PHI is -6.5 and the Rams are -7. This should pay +265. Look, if you want to bet both favorites you should be betting this. If they both cover you want this boost. I am passing. If we learn that WFT has no QB, then we can come back to this.

Fox Bet
Hurts to have a first half rushing TD +300
We do not bet times boosts.

Henderson and Gibson to score rushing TD’s +400
Why can’t this be anytime TD? Pass. This is very specific. I am out.

NFL

Let’s Get Weird
PHI-.5/LAR -1/GB -2 6 point teaser +140
I am asking both favorites to win tonight and Green Bay to beat the Browns by less than a field goal at home. I wonder who makes this lose. But, here we are.

NFL Computer Model
Overall 105-117 47.29%
Platinum 5-9 35.71%
Premium 25-22 53.19%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 30-31 49.18%

Our Plays
NFL
Overall 22-20 52.38%
NFL Props 1-0 100%
NFL Odds Boosts 12-40 -1615
NFL Teasers and Parlays 2-3 +005

College Football
Overall 7-1 87.5%
College Odds Boosts 2-0 +200
College Teasers and Parlays 1-1 +154

Combined
Overall 29-21 58%
Odds Boosts 19-36 -1115
Teasers and Parlays 3-3 +259

Yesterday, I chose not to even post the model results and picks. The reason is simple, yesterday was a mess. Multiple games canceled, news flying all over and it was occurring during the NFL day. I do not want to give out bad information, or something that is not accurate, so we moved on yesterday. Today, hopefully we can better assess what is going on. Already Joel Embiid has been added to the injury report, as if we do not have enough to worry about.

Covid and injuries are everywhere. Be careful out there!

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

NBA Model Plays
MEM -9
CHI -7
CHA +11.5
SAS +4.5
BOS -3.5 (The entire Sixers scheduled starting five is currently questionable)
GSW -13





*If two games or more reach a certain level, we will label them highest rated in model. The record at bottom will be updated to note we may have more than one top play per day from the computer model.

Basketball Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
Oubre and Clarkson to combine for 5+ 3 pointers +140 (DK)
Oubre is not even listed for props on most of the major sites.
Clakson is not either. I am passing. We know combined is never the best way to go for wagers. I am out.


Lonzo to records 30+ points/assists/rebounds +180 (DK)
Lonzo’s combo is set to 26.5 and the over is juiced. I would have thought Lonzo would get to this point a little more often than he does. This is probably a fair price for this boost. This game does have a total of 222.5 and since LaVine is still out and the Bulls still have a limited roster, I am going to take a shot here. It is hard to find many games in Lonzo’s past, with these exact same conditions. Nevertheless, the over on this combo being juiced, means I am willing to take a shot. I am in.


Steph to record 7+ made 3’s +130 (DK)
Steph’s prop is set to 6.5 and the under is juiced. This is taking the over on his prop that is pay +120, at a slight boost of +130. I am passing.

CHI/OKC/UTA to all win +500 (Fox)
As usual, this features a dog. OKC should never be in a bet like this. This also pays +527 on Fan Duel. Pass for me.

NBA

Let’s Get Weird
GSW/UTA/MEM/CHI/Vikings ML Parlay +179
The Bears have no secondary. I fully expect something weird like the Hornets to win in Utah.

NBA Record 2021-2022
NBA Record 18-23 40%
College Record 2-2 50%
Hoops Combined Record 20-24 45.45%
Hoops Parlay Record   5-9 +369
Hoops Odds Boosts 17-25 +1040
Hoops Player Props 1-5 -465
NBA Model Highest Rated 19-29 39.58%
NBA Model 194-198 49.48%

I am all about having two games on Monday and Tuesday!

I have the Raiders +4.5 from last week. Now, I can take the Browns +3. I am more than happy to try and middle this game and have either team win by three or less. If that happens, I will win both wagers. Anytime I can create a window for a riskless wager, I am doing it.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

Computer Model Plays
Platinum
None

Premium


Regular Plays
CLE +1.5
WAS +7
LAR -4.5
MIN -4

Football Odds Boost You Should Consider Betting
Fan Duel
Cook and Montgomery to each score a TD +350
This should pay +255. Cook is -210 to score a TD. This Bears offense, well who knows? Predicting touchdowns is pretty tricky as you all know. I am passing.

Draft Kings
Cook to record 100+ rushing yards +140
Cook’s rushing prop is set to 92.5. Cook is +110 on FD to run for 100+ yards. Since the Bears are missing their entire secondary, I am going to assume they are smart enough to pass it a ton. I mean, I hope they are this smart. I am passing.


Renfrow to record 100+ receiving yards +240
His prop is set to 75.5. This is +198 on Fan Duel. This is kind of tempting as he will get a ton of targets. However, with the conditions and the Browns running it a ton, there may be limited opportunities. I am passing.

MIN/CHI under 39.5 points +200
This is a fair number compared to what else is out there around the industry. Meaning, this is what it should be. Pass for me.

Fields to record 250+ Passing Yards +280
Fields prop is 208.5. Fields to throw for 250+ is +235 on another site. Ehhh. This is a boost, but both of these games are going to be ugly. I am passing.

Barstool Sportsbook
Reminder, never bet with barstool (Their employee boosts) and do not bet timed boosts for a quarter or half and needing to score.

Jacobs and Chubb to both score a TD +500
This should pay +323. This is a solid boost, but this may be a very ugly game. Nick Mullins is starting and ugh. I am passing just because who knows what we will get here.

Fox Bet
LVR and MIN to both win +150
This should pay +130. I mean, if you like the Raiders today sure go for it. The Vikings will be missing their entire secondary. The Browns are missing, if the count is correct 18 starters. I am just sticking with my middling opportunity for that game. Pass for me.

NFL

Let’s Get Weird

NFL Computer Model
Overall 104-116 47.27%
Platinum 5-9 35.71%
Premium 25-22 53.19%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 30-31 49.18%

Our Plays
NFL
Overall 22-20 52.38%
NFL Props 1-0 100%
NFL Odds Boosts 12-40 -1615
NFL Teasers and Parlays 2-3 +005

College Football
Overall 7-1 87.5%
College Odds Boosts 2-0 +200
College Teasers and Parlays 1-1 +154 Combined
Overall 29-21 58%
Odds Boosts 19-36 -1115
Teasers and Parlays 3-3 +259

I love the Steelers today and to win the division at +1200. I like the Broncos today as well. The GB line is going to rise if/when Lamar is ruled out 100%.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

Computer Model Plays
Platinum
None

Premium
NE+2.5
NO +11

Regular Plays
CLE +1.5
BUFF -10.5
DET +13.5
NYJ +10
NYG +11
WAS +7
PIT +1.5
HOU +3.5
CIN +2.5
ATL +9
LAR -4.5
BAL +5.5
MIN -4

Football Odds Boost You Should Consider Betting
Fan Duel
SF/TB/GB to all win +140
This pays -103. I am in. This is three big favorites that all should and need to win. Let’s go.


I am not mentioning the underdog parlay as it is Houston related. Pass for me.

Draft Kings
Adams 100+ receiving Yards +145
Adams prop is set to 91.5 and the Ravens secondary is missing several players. I am in. This is a Packers smash spot.

I am only mentioning the boost I like on DK.

Barstool Sportsbook
Reminder, never bet with barstool (Their employee boosts) and do not bet timed boosts for a quarter or half and needing to score.

Can’t lose Parlay
ARZ -2.5/BUF -2.5/DAL ML/GB ML +200
I like this. This should pay +108. I am in.

Fox Bet
BUFF/ARZ/TENN to all win +160
I am on the Steelers here, so this is an easy pass.  This should pay +157. What a boost. I am out.

DEN/GB/SF to all win +185
This should pay +165. Easy small pass. I like it, but ehh, I would rather bet a ML parlay.

NFL
Pit +1

DEN -3

Let’s Get Weird
5 Team 6.5 Point Teaser +350 (DK)
LAC +10/NE +9/PIT +7.5/CIN +9/PHI -.5

NFL Computer Model
Overall 96-112 46.15%
Platinum 5-9 35.71%
Premium 24-21 53.33%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 29-30 49.15%

Our Plays
NFL
Overall 21-19 52.5%
NFL Props 1-0 100%
NFL Odds Boosts 12-37 -1315
NFL Teasers and Parlays 2-2 +105

College Football
Overall 7-1 87.5%
College Odds Boosts 2-0 +200
College Teasers and Parlays 1-1 +154

Combined
Overall 28-20 58.33%
Odds Boosts 19-33 -815
Teasers and Parlays 3-2 +359

Covid seems to be taking over the NBA and NFL season at this exact moment. We have had games canceled and teams like the Browns decimated. While we want everyone to be healthy and safe, the point of this blog is to improve everyone as a sports bettor. Sometimes that means acting fast and trying to take advantage of situations as news breaks. When Aaron Rodgers tested positive for Covid, I missed getting a bet in by seconds. As news breaks on Twitter, you have maybe two minutes to run and get a wager in to take advantage of the breaking news. (I will mention again that Fox Bet is the slowest to pull games and maybe you should head there first to get a wager in. I try DK first knowing I have an extra minute to get to Fox.)

When the twitter rumors started to come out about the Browns, I felt it was best to make a wager on the Raiders based on that speculation. I locked in Raiders +4.5. I look at this in two ways. If the rumors are correct, I will get a fantastic number as the line moves. If the rumors are wrong, I can always cash out of the bet, or buy out of it and bet the other side, and only lose the juice. If you are a $100 a game bettor, this would be a $10 loss on one of the sides. I am more than willing to risk the juice to get a fantastic number. In this case, the news was correct. I have the Raiders +4.5. Currently, the Raiders are now -3.5 points. Nick Mullins is expected to start for the Browns Saturday.

I have two options at this point. I can sit tight and hold my great Raiders value at +4.5. That is the boring option that does not give us a chance to maximize profits. I could take the Browns at +3.5. That would give me a window where each team winning by three or four points would win me both wagers. Lastly, I can also take the Browns money line at +160. That would give me a smaller window to win both wagers, but I would have to lay out less money.

I will be taking the Browns in some capacity Saturday. Nevertheless, the entire point of this is that you must act quickly. Once news hits, I am immediately rushing to place a bet. To me, there is almost no risk. You can always cash out of a bet or buy out of a position. Instead, because I acted fast, I have a risk free situation where I will try to win both wagers.

As usual, no odds boosts listed on most sites at this point.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

Computer Model Plays
Platinum
None

Premium
NE+2.5
NO +11

Regular Plays
CLE +1.5
BUFF -10.5
DET +13.5
NYJ +10
NYG +11
WAS +7
PIT +1.5
HOU +3.5
CIN +2.5
ATL +9
LAR -4.5
BAL +5.5
MIN -4

Football Odds Boost You Should Consider Betting
Fan Duel

Draft Kings

Barstool Sportsbook
Reminder, never bet with barstool (Their employee boosts) and do not bet timed boosts for a quarter or half and needing to score.

Fox Bet
IND/LVR to both win +187
This parlay pays +215 over on FD, easy pass.

BUFF/ARZ/TENN to all win +160
I am on the Steelers here, so this is an easy pass.  This should pay +157. What a boost. I am out.

NFL
Pit +1

Let’s Get Weird
5 Team 6.5 Point Teaser +350 (DK)
LAC +10/NE +9/PIT +7.5/CIN +9/PHI -.5

NFL Computer Model
Overall 96-112 46.15%
Platinum 5-9 35.71%
Premium 24-21 53.33%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 29-30 49.15%

Our Plays
NFL
Overall 21-19 52.5%
NFL Props 1-0 100%
NFL Odds Boosts 12-37 -1315
NFL Teasers and Parlays 2-2 +105

College Football
Overall 7-1 87.5%
College Odds Boosts 2-0 +200
College Teasers and Parlays 1-1 +154

Combined
Overall 28-20 58.33%
Odds Boosts 19-33 -815
Teasers and Parlays 3-2 +359

Covid and injuries are everywhere. Be careful out there!

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

NBA Model Plays
MIA -6.5
ATL -3.5
GSW -3
MIL -2
UTA -11.5
LAL +2.5
CHA +2
MEM -5.5





*If two games or more reach a certain level, we will label them highest rated in model. The record at bottom will be updated to note we may have more than one top play per day from the computer model.

Basketball Odds Boosts You Should Consider BettingIt appears they are posting NBA boosts later and later. They are clearly afraid on Covid situations and I get it.

Curry to record a double-double +700 (DK)
There are no props listed for the Warriors as one player (Poole) just entered the protocols. Curry has five double-doubles in 27 games this season. I am passing. This will not be a great game environment for this to really shoot out. Pass for me.


LaMelo and Dame to combine for 6+ made 3’s +170 (DK)
Always with the combined boosts.
Dame’s prop is set to 3.5 and the under is juiced.
Nothing is listed for LaMelo as he is not officially in yet.
Dame is -300 to make 3+ threes. I am going to assume a parlay of them to both make 3+ threes will pay more as it normally does. If it does not, then you can fire on this boost. I am passing until I have that information.



ATL/BOS/UTA to all win +320 (Fox)
Per usual, spot the dog. Tonight it is the Celtics at home against the Warriors. No thank you. This pays +329 on Fan Duel. Pass.

NBA
MIL -2
I am down for the short handed Bucks to show up and play well.

MEM -5.5
The entire Kings roster is questionable or may be out. Memphis has been playing well without Ja Morant. I like it.

Let’s Get Weird

NBA Record 2021-2022
NBA Record 17-22 43.58%
College Record 2-2 50%
Hoops Combined Record 19-23 45.23%
Hoops Parlay Record   5-9 +369
Hoops Odds Boosts 17-25 +1040
Hoops Player Props 1-5 -465
NBA Model Highest Rated 19-29 39.58%
NBA Model 189-189 50%