We did it everyone. We made it to the first NFL weekend. We must treasure these days. We get 18 of them a year when there are 10+ NFL games from 1 PM until close to midnight. I will formulate these posts in a specific manner. I will go game by game and let you know if I took this team in contests or just bet on them. Please be aware that contests lines are frozen during the week at some point and that can create some advantageous situations.
I will also give out my survivor pick and make a large list of what the computer model likes. Without further ado, on to the games.
TB +3.5 at CIN
The Bengals have attempted to improve their defense to match their stellar offense. Yet, the Bengals have not really addressed their offensive line issues. The Bucs seemed like a team in flux. Unhappy star DT. Unhappy star QB. The team felt like this may be a transition year, with perhaps a lame duck coach. The Bucs are finally healthy, they resigned Vita Vea. They resigned Baker Mayfield. I figured the Bucs may be playing out the last season of their contracts and then headed for a new coach and perhaps a rebuild. Instead, they are running it back and taking another shot some youthful additions on both sides of the ball. Week one is always about leaning on your preconceived notions about a team. I have heard the hype on the Bengals every year, but it never comes to fruition. Until the Bengals actually block and play defense, I will remain skeptical. The Bucs can easily win this game. TB +3.5 as a bet and in picks contests.
NO +7 at DET
Speaking of teams with a shaky offensive line and a bad defense, welcome the Detroit Lions! I believe the Lions window has closed. Like I said, week one is when you must trust your priors on a team. I think the Lions had their opportunity and could not come through. The division is significantly better and the Lions as I said have given me doubts on both lines. Yes, I know Aiden Hutchinson exists. Part of my refocusing and past success has been focusing on pass rush and protection. I think I got away from that a little in the last few years, and I did not consider or emphasize it enough when making selections. The Saints closed strongly last year, albeit against a weak schedule. Maybe I believe in Kellen Moore’s ability to generate points in domes. I think the Saints are able to move the ball against Detroit and make this game a lot closer than the spread would indicate. Saints +7 as a bet and in picks contests.
NYJ +1.5 at TEN
Six weeks ago when I first started to breakdown games, I had the Titans circled in week one. The story line makes sense. Robert Salah, defensive genius, against his former team with Geno Smith on the road. Yet, I have done a complete 180. The Jets did go out and spend on defense. The Jets fired many assistant coaches and are trying something different after last years disaster. Meanwhile, the Titans offensive line is mediocre at best. I assume the Titans defense must improve, but I am passing on all of this. I think the Jets are a fine teaser leg if you take them to +7.5, but no need to take them here.
BAL -3.5 at IND
I am not sure what to make of the Ravens. Lamar has slowly started to run less. The Ravens offense is awful when he just stays in the pocket. Part of me believes the Ravens window has also closed, or maybe a new coach will invigorate this franchise. Everything changed for the Colts when Daniel Jones got hurt last year. Now, they rely on him to be ready to go this quickly after tearing his Achilles. I am not a big fan of laying points on the road, but I am also not interested in backing the Colts. I am happy to wait and watch both these teams this weekend. Pass.
ATL +4.5 at PIT
Yes, I know I can be biased with my Steelers. This line has moved at least a point in a few spots with the news Tua got hurt throwing a pass yesterday. Cooper Rush may be in line to start for the Falcons and he was dreadful for the Ravens last year. I mentioned a few posts ago, I bet the Steelers -3. I am happy to let that bet ride with some great closing line value. The real question is, will I fire on the Steelers in picks contests? Yes, the contests lines are -3.5. However, you could argue that even at -5.5, the Steelers number provides value, but it does not cross any major key numbers. (Yes, 4 is important, but not as meaningful as 3 or 7) Do you believe me? Do you think I can stay away? From a football perspective, the Steelers front seven should dominate the Falcons offensive line. I have concerns about the Steelers offensive line, but the Falcons only two pass rushers being out due to injury and suspension should all Aaron Rodgers to have time to throw downfield. Steelers -3 as a previous bet and I would happily lay -4. I am unsure about the contests at this time.
CHI -3 at CAR
This is the Admiral Akbar game of the week. The world is on the Bears. All the tickets, all the money, all of the public loves the Bears and their high-powered offense. Yet, the line remains the same. Yes, it was -2.5 in some spots, but it appears the books are more than happy to take all the money on Chicago -3. You have been warned. It’s a trap.
CLE +8.5 at JAX
Nope. I am not laying this many, nor am I interested in anything involving Deshaun Watson. Having said that, I do think playing in the south in the early parts of the season has always been a tough spot for teams. I just cannot get behind either of these teams. Pass.
BUF -1.5 at HOU
I think the Texans just have to be better offensively. The CJ Stroud can not play worse than he did down the stretch last season and into the playoffs. It is not physically possible. Yet, I am not excited to wager against Josh Allen. I know the Bills have struggled in Houston, and this is the spot of the playoff game where Allen tried to throw a 15-yard lateral late in the fourth quarter. I swear this play was lost to time, but was insane when it happened. The Texans area great teaser leg getting over two key numbers. Pass for wagers and in picks contests.
MIA +3 at LVR
This game is 3.5 in picks contests. I want to pretend this game does not exist. We have two good divisional games at 4:25, so thankfully, this will barely be on TV. Pass on these two awful teams.
GB +1.5 at MIN
This is an intriguing line. Conventional wisdom would say the Packers should be favored, but yet here we are. Micah Parsons is not back for Green Bay and will not be for several weeks. The Packers RB room is a cavalcade of guys who might all be out of the league in a year. This entire game hinges on one thing, do you believe in Kyler Murray. What the Vikings did last year with an F- from the quarterback position is remarkable. If the rest of the team stays the same and Murray gives them an average performance, they will be significantly better. I am passing on this game, but I am very curious to see how it plays out.
WAS +5 at PHI
You know how I said I was back to focusing on each team’s fronts? Yeah, this is what I am talking about. There is broad spectrum agreement that the Commanders have the worst offensive line in the league. Conversely, there is consensus that the Eagles lines on both sides of the ball are in the top five in the entire NFL. I am back the Eagles here and feel that they get pressure on Jayden Daniels, then can protect Jalen Hurts with ease. I want to see the new Eagles offense, and this should be a great spot for some big time runs and deep passes. This is the Eagles pattern, right? After a year they have a bad playoff loss, then change their OC they make the Super Bowl the next year, right? Eagles offensive and defensive line dominate this game. Eagles as a bet and in picks contests.
ARZ +9.5 at LAC
The Cardinals will be the backdoor kings with some large spreads. I am not laying this many points here, if anything I have interest in Arizona with the number. The Cardinals have too much offensive talent to not score points, but we shall ignore their defense. Pass for now.
DAL -3 at NYG
We do not lay points on the road in division. I think both teams may be better than expected. I do not have a good read on the Giants at all. I was discussing them with some Giant fan friends and admitted I have no idea what to expect. Does John Harbaugh bring a level of competency? Was John Harbaugh secretly holding the Ravens back? If Dallas did not have some injuries along the offensive line I would be more inclined to consider Dallas. Pass.
DEN +3 at KC
The old rules were simple. If Mahomes was laying three or less, you fired on Kansas City. If the Chiefs were giving more than three you stay away or sheepishly went against the best QB in the NFL. Now that the Chiefs mystique has kind of warn off, what do we do here? Denver obviously had a fantastic season last year and were a random injury, or maybe a snowstorm away from playing in the Superbowl. Despite what Denver has done and is poised to do, I have this feeling we should be on the Chiefs here. The Chiefs added Kenneth Walker and should finally be able to run the ball consistently. I want to see if the offense can be back to where it once was. I am leaning Chiefs, but pass for now.
So here we are, I have 3.5 games in for contests picks and have made a few wagers. There is still some time before I must lock in those Circa Millions picks.
My Plays
Pitt -3
PHI -5
TB +3.5
NO +7
Circa Millions Contest
PHI -4.5
TB +3.5
NO +7
Survivor Selections
I have two entries in most of my survivor contests.
Entry One
Pittsburgh
This is taking a risk, but gives me a slightly more unique path than others.
Entry Two
JAX
Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!
NFL Computer Model Picks
Platinum
IND +3.5
MIA +3.5
Premium
TB +3.5
GB +1.5
PHI -5
The Rest
DET -7
NYJ +1.5
PIT -4.5
CHI -2.5
JAX -8.5
HOU +1.5
ARZ +9.5
DAL -2.5
DEN +3
NFL Computer Model
2026-2027 Season
Overall 1-1 50%
Platinum 0-0
Premium 0-0
My Plays
Overall 0-0
Circa Millions Contests Record 0-0
Props/Parlays/Teasers/Other 0-1 -100
Win The Weekends 