Finally, we are back to normalcy. I have mentioned this before, but there is something about the rhythm of life and how the years move forward that make me happy, and frankly sad. Watching your kids grow up is full of joy, but there is some longing for how they once were when they were younger. I have always used the start of the NFL as a marker of some kind, like an unofficial real start to this year. It is not a coincidence that this matches up with school starting, looking at first day pictures and reminiscing about previous first days of school and how my children have changed and grown over the years.
I have been going to Steeler games with my dad since I was six years old. I am now 43. That is 37 years of new hope, beginnings and a yearly reminder that time continues to pass. When Sunday at 1 P.M. rolls around, that just feels natural to me. We get 18 Sundays every year, where we can immerse ourselves in the NFL. I know some people like college football, but there is nothing like the NFL. Much like the passage of time, it is consistent, and I know that at 1, 4:25 and then at 8:20 there are going to be games. Maybe I just crave having a constant every week, when life can be very unpredictable. Either way, as I age, it is something to look forward to and be excited about much in the same way it was when I was a child.
Besides discussing how having the NFL back makes me feel, it is also an opportunity to make some money. A reminder that lines in contests are stagnant and will not change after they are posted. I will mention what number I bet teams at and what numbers I have in contests. Anyway, here we go!
KC -3 at LAC (Brazil)
This is Brazil (Dom Toretto voice from Fast Five)! Anytime the NFL can have a game in a location that had a horrendous field that hurt Jordan Love last year, you just have to run it back. This is being played at a different location though. The only way the Chargers could avoid having a home game with more visiting fans was to leave the continent. This year feels like the last revenge season for the Chiefs. I am not a fan of the Chargers at all. The Chargers always seem to hang around and lose these games. I know in the past it made a ton of sense to take the Chargers when they were getting 5+ against the Chiefs, but not at this number. Lean KC, but pass. The bet I actually like the best I have made on this game is Isiah Pacheco anytime TD at +165. Pass on the game.
NYG +5.5 at WAS
Washington can not replicate their 4th down success from last year, right? Regression has to hit them. This line has slowly dropped and as you can imagine the public is not lining up to wager on Russell Wilson. The Giants played the Commanders tough in both games last year, for whatever that is worth. I am going to stay away. I want to see the Giants pass rush against an extremely mobile QB.
CIN -5.5 at CLE
We now have a track record of the Bengals starting extremely slowly. To remedy this situation, the Bengals played their starter more in the preseason. Will that work? Will it matter? Can they even block for Joe Burrow? The expectations are all over the place for Cincinnati. Mine are pretty low. They have no defense, and they struggle to block. We watched a team win the Super Bowl on the strength of their offensive and defensive line. My model makes this CIN -3. I am just avoiding talking about the Browns offense in this spot. I am leaning toward the home divisional dog here. If I bet Jameis at home against the Ravens last year, I can certainly get behind Joe Flacco here. I am on CLE +5.5 as a bet and in contests.
PIT -3 at NYJ
Wait, he is not going to lay points with Mike Tomlin on the road, is he? If I had the Kool-Aid man suit, I would wear it and break through the wall saying “OH YEAHHHHHH!” I know my team and I know we should not be laying points on the road normally. However, how do the Jets block, move the ball and have anything that resembles a passing game. Yes, Garrett Wilson is good, but the Steelers secondary is going to be much improved. I believe in the Steelers defense. I believe in the Steelers offensive line. I believe the Jets are going to be very bad. If the Steelers get a lead, how will the Jets score when Just Fields must throw? Is he going to be looking to Allen Lazard or Mason Taylor? This is more of a bet against the Jets than on the Steelers. My model has the Steelers just over a 5-point favorite. I am on the Steelers -3 as a bet and -2.5 in picks contests.
ARZ -6.5 at NO
I would not feel comfortable laying this many points on the road with the Cardinals. I know what the correct side is here, and my model agrees, but man this Saints team is not good. They are going to win a game at some point this year and it may be this weekend. I am not sure I have the gumption to take the Saints. Maybe the Cardinals do take the next step and become a force in the NFC West. I am going to wait and see for now. Lean Saints, but pass for now.
TB -1.5 at ATL
This a super fun DFS game, but I have zero clue in terms of betting. The computer likes TB a little, but them missing their starting LT is a problem. I will have this on a TV because of a Baker stack but pass in terms of contests and wagers.
CAR +3.5 at JAX
I really want to take the Panthers here. Perhaps the Jags should not be favored by more than three over anyone. There are too many unknowns in this game between the Panthers defense, and whatever the Jags do with Liam Cohen and Travis Hunter. Pass on the game, but I do like a completely under-the-radar stack with Bryce Young.
MIA +1.5 at INDY
I am not backing Daniel Jones as a favorite, nor do I feel comfortable taking the fading Dolphins. I will say the Dolphins normally start strong, then fall apart, so there is some history there, not to mention the Miami offense on turf has been fun to watch. A few years ago, they opened at the Chargers and the game was a track meet. Pass on this game though.
LVR +2.5 at NE
Everyone seems to love the Patriots this year. Yes, they have a weak schedule and should get the “new coach bump.” However, this team was not good last year and even if adding a proven NFL head coach adds a few wins, that is not enough to compete in the AFC. I am leaning toward the Raiders here, but that also feels like I am forcing it. The computer makes the Patriots a slight favorite here. Lean Raiders.
TEN +8.5 at DEN
I am not laying, nor taking the points here. I do have Denver in some survivor contests. I need to see the new-look Titans in this one. I wish this was an afternoon game. Pass for me.
SF -1.5 at SEA
CMC popping up on the injury report is alarming and I hope we wake up Sunday morning to that Adam Schefter news dump of CMC is a full go. Computer here has SF -2, so no real advantage either way on the number. I am passing for now, but if we get news on a healthy CMC, I lean Niners. Road favorites, ugh.
DET +2.5 at GB
This line has moved after the Parsons trade. The Lions are a very public dog. I am concerned about the Packers WR room, but not ready to anoint them as the leaders of this division yet. You need to kill the king to become the king. Lean Detroit.
HOU +3 at LAR
I love the Rams. I believe Matthew Stafford is going to be fine, for now. The Rams offensive line is actually healthy, and they need to hold up against the Texan’s pass rush. The Rams pushed the Eagles to the limit last year and their defense has been solid. I am so out on Houston this year. They have one proven WR for week one since Christian Kirk is out. Their offensive line was bad last year and looks to be even worse now. I am on the Rams -3 and they are -2.5 in contests.
BAL -1.5 at BUF
The Bills being a home dog is very surprising. I am interested in watching this game, but not betting it at all. Pass.
MIN -1.5 at CHI
Another home prime time dog. I was all about the Bears here, but the model really prefers the Vikings. That might be enough to push me away from this game. I am struggling to get to five games for contest though. I lean Chicago, computer is on Vikings. Pass for now.
Here we are with three games in for contests and two more to select. I will post my choices on Twitter/X Sunday morning and may make a video for TikTok and YouTube like I did a few times last year.
Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!
My Plays and Contest Picks
CLE +5.5
PIT -3 (-2.5 Contests)
LAR -3 (-2.5 Contests)
Pacheco Anytime TD +165 (Multiple sites)
Survivor
Philly (I am splitting my entries on the Eagles and Broncos this week) WIN
Denver
Computer Model Plays
Platinum
NONE
Premium
PIT -3
DET +2.5
MIN -1.5
Regular Plays
LAC +3
TB -1.5
CLE +5.5
MIA +1
LVR +2.5
NO +6.5
WAS -5.5
CAR +3.5
DEN -8.5
SF -1.5
DET +2.5
HOU +3
BUF +1.5
NFL Computer Model
2025-2026 Season
Overall 0-1 0%
Platinum 0-0 0%
Premium 0-0 0%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 0-0 0%
My Plays
Overall 0-0 0%
Draft Kings Contest Record 0-0 0%
