NFL Thursday Night Football Week 8

Thursday night computer model likes Minnesota. I am personally staying away.


This is where I am at the moment and who knows what news may hit that changes my plans in contests. As of now, I have one team in for sure and lots of work to do!

I will post my choices on Twitter/X Sunday morning.  

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

My Plays


Contest Picks


Computer Model Plays
Platinum


Premium


Regular Plays
MIN +3.5

NFL Computer Model
2025-2026 Season
Overall 52-57 47.70%
Platinum 1-4 20%
Premium 13-10 56.52%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 14-14 50%

My Plays
Overall 11-8 57.89%
Draft Kings Contest Record 22-13 62.85%
Props/Parlays/Teasers/Other 2-2 50% +000

NFL Week 7 Wagers, Contest Picks and Computer Model Plays

I hate to say I told you so on the Steelers, but here we are. The defense has so many problems for being the most expensive defense in the league. I hope that when my grandchildren are around and Mike Tomlin retires, the next coach is offensive minded.

I would think that when we reach week seven, we should have a better handle on who is actually good this season. However, I believe there are a few teams that are so bad that they make other teams appear to be better than they are. I am talking about you Colts. We also have some teams getting healthy and having players returning from suspension. I said yesterday, I thought the Steelers were fraudulent and here we are. I can see the Ravens coming back and winning the AFC North after beating the Steelers in week 18. Anyway, on to week seven!

LAC -3 at JAX (LONDON)
Nope. If Puka was playing, I would like the Rams. Instead, I am passing.

LV +12.5 at KC
Are the Chiefs back? Rice is returning, but this is the spot every year the Chiefs win but fail to cover. I am not laying the points here, but the Raiders without Brock Bowers are very bad. Pass for now.

MIA +2.5 at CLE
Bad weather. Miami coming north. Everyone can run the ball on the Dolphins. I believe the Browns defense is the best unit on the field and will make things very hard for the Dolphins. Cleveland in contests and as a wager. I texted a few friends earlier in the week to play Judkins rushing overs. In a day it went from 84.5 (Where I bet it) all the way to 95.5. That is a jump. Browns in everything.

NE -7 at TEN
I am not laying a TD on the road, even if the team getting points is the worst in the NFL and just fired people. Pass.

NO +5 at CHI
The Bears have not really beaten anyone. The Saints are undervalued in the eyes of the public. I am not taking Spencer Rattler on the road outdoors. Pass.

PHI -1.5 at MIN
We have a home dog coming off a bye week that is getting healthy. I think considering all the injuries, I like the Vikings defense against the Eagles. Minnesota had a slew of injuries on both sides of the ball, but the defense is back. Offensively, I cannot believe I want to back Carson Wentz, if he starts. Really, I want to play the Vikings passing game against the injury-filled Eagles secondary and defense. Lean Vikings in contests and as a wager. The downside here is are the Eagles really going to lose three games in a row?

CAR -1.5 at NYJ
The Panthers are a road favorite? In this economy? Pass. This game sucks.

IND +1.5 at LAC
The Chargers are getting healthy. The Colts have a secondary that is missing a ton of players. The Cardinals threw the ball at will last week against the Colts. I think the Chargers will be able to do the same. Provided Joe Alt is back, the Chargers offense will have the time to throw and score points. Chargers as a wager and in picks contests.

NYG +7 at DEN
Oh boy I want to be on the Giants here. The broncos played in London last week and the Giants played on Thursday. This is a wonderful rest advantage spot for New York. However, it is a rookie QB on the road against a very good defense. Lean Giants.

WAS +1.5 at DAL
Dallas is now a slight home favorite as the line has just shifted. Neither team can defend here and I have no feel. Pass.

GB -6.5 at ARZ
I am not laying almost a touchdown on the road. Pass for me. I do want to mention the Packers are over-rated in the market though.

ATL +2 at SF
The Falcons coming off a massive home win now head across the country. If the Niners defense was healthy, this was an easy spot to play them. However, they are not. Man, I really want to play the Niners, but pass for now.

TB +5.5 at DET
This is the Lions get-right spot after losing in Kansas City last week. The Tampa Bay injuries keep piling up and while the Lions secondary is in tatters, the Bucs do not have anyone left to attack them. That has not mattered for Baker, but I think it catches up with them this week. Lions as a wager and in picks contests.

HOU +3 at Seattle
I hate Houston. Lean Seattle and their defense, as I expect they could throttle the Texans offensive line.



This is where I am at the moment and who knows what news may hit that changes my plans in contests. As of now, I have one team in for sure and lots of work to do!

I will post my choices on Twitter/X Sunday morning and may make a video for TikTok and YouTube like I did a few times last year.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

My Plays
DET -5.5
LAC -1.5
CLE -2.5

Contest Picks
DET -4.5
LAC -1.5
CLE -2.5

Computer Model Plays
Platinum


Premium
PIT -5.5
IND +1.5
HOU +3


Regular Plays
LAR -3
NO +5
MIA +2.5
NE -7
LVR +12.5
MIN +1.5
CAR +1.5
NYG +7
WAS -2.5
GB -6.5
ATL +2
DET -5.5

NFL Computer Model
2025-2026 Season
Overall 46-48 48.93%
Platinum 1-4 20%
Premium 12-8 60%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 13-12 52%

My Plays
Overall 8-7 53.33%
Draft Kings Contest Record 18-12 60%
Props/Parlays/Teasers/Other 2-2 50% +000

NFL Thursday Night Football Week 7

Last week was my first losing week in picks contests as I went 2-3. I am still hovering around 60% in the contest and need to get back to my positive momentum.

For tonight, this is the Steelers danger zone. Pittsburgh on the road as a favorite against a bad team with an immobile QB. I have seen Tomlin teams do this before and lay an egg. I am passing completely. If the Steelers are actually good, they come out and handle their business tonight. If they are fraudulent, they will blow this very winnable spot. This is the time to take a stranglehold in the division. I am mentally prepared to hear, “end of the first quarter and the Bengals leads 3-0.” That will be followed by, “Rodger’s pass was deflected and returned for a Bengals touchdown.” I am ready to get hurt.


This is where I am at the moment and who knows what news may hit that changes my plans in contests. As of now, I have one team in for sure and lots of work to do!

I will post my choices on Twitter/X Sunday morning and may make a video for TikTok and YouTube like I did a few times last year.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

My Plays



Contest Picks


Computer Model Plays
Platinum


Premium
PIT -5.5


Regular Plays

NFL Computer Model
2025-2026 Season
Overall 46-48 48.93%
Platinum 1-4 20%
Premium 12-8 60%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 13-12 52%

My Plays
Overall 8-7 53.33%
Draft Kings Contest Record 18-12 60%
Props/Parlays/Teasers/Other 2-2 50% +000

NFL Week 6 Wagers, Contest Picks and Computer Model Plays

The goal is to keep griding out 3-2 every week in picks contests. I am sitting at 16-9 at this point and that is a fantastic pace I would be happy to keep. Last week was the revenge of the dog and after Thursday night, we have had another larger dog win outright. There are more ugly dogs this week as well.

DEN -7.5 at NYJ (LON)
The Jets are terrible and can not stop, well anything. The Denver defense may limit the Jets from doing anything. Lean Broncos and no way I am touching the Jets here.

CLE +5.5 at PIT
Me a few weeks ago: NO MORE STEELERS! THEY ARE TERRIBLE.

Me now: So, Mike Tomlin laying points at home, this has never gone badly before.

We have seen this movie. Tomlin and the Steelers playing a team they should easily handle, at home. I normally completely stay away from this, but what a tough spot for the Browns. Rookie QB on the road making second career start coming back from London playing against an almost healthy Steelers team coming off a bye week. This is a god awful spot for the Browns in terms of rest advantage. Heavily lean Steelers, but I want to stay away.

ARZ +7 at INDY
I like the Colts. The Cardinals are closer to firing everyone than they are competing. The Colts quietly just keep scoring every single week. The Colts will score again here. I am on the Colts as a bet and in the contest at -6.5. Yes, the Colts are laying seven in real life and I am in on that number too.

DAL -3 at CAR
The professionals are on the Panthers here. With the contest number being set at +3.5 I am curious, but I am staying away for now. I continue to think that at times backing the best unit in the game, which sounds simple, could be profitable. The Cowboys offense is good, even missing lineman and Lamb it appears. Pass for me.

LAR -7.5 at BAL
Nope. I am not laying a TD on the road. Baltimore might also be completely dead until their bye week. Pass.

LAC -4.5 at MIA
The Chargers cannot protect Justin Herbert. The Dolphins have zero pass rush. I hate this game. Pass.

NE -3.5 at NO
We do not lay points on the road with bad teams coming off a huge win. Pass on this game.

SEA -1.5 at JAX
This line keeps flipping around as both have been favored throughout the week. Seattle has plenty of injuries and the Jags of course are coming off a huge win last week. This feels like an obvious let-down spot, but the Jags defense just keeps on forcing turnovers. Pass until we find out more about the Seattle injuries.

TEN +4.5 at LVR
Fire this game into the sun.

CIN +14 at GB
I am very interested in the Packers. The Bengals have an awful offensive line and can not protect at all. Now, they insert a statue at the QB position. I think the Packers coming off a bye week have a very nice get right spot. The Packers still scored 40 and did not win in their last game. I like Green Bay -14, but in contests it is sitting at -14.5. I am pausing for now, but this could be the 5th game when I am struggling to find one this weekend.

SF +3 at TB
Too many injuries at the moment. Pass for now.

DET +2.5 at KC
I love the Chiefs here. Detroit looks great against bad defenses and the Chiefs will be much better than what they have shown. Kansas City has fixed their offense, and the Lions have a slew of defensive injuries. KC as a bet and in picks contests.


BUF -4.5 at ATL
I want to take the home dog here, but going against Josh Allen coming off a loss feels wrong. I am passing for now.

CHI +4.5 at WAS
The Bears coming off a bye week get a shot at revenge for last year’s Hail Mary game. You can throw the ball down the field on the Commanders, but the Bears may not be able to protect. Lean Washington due to their new ability to run the ball. Pass for now.


This is where I am at the moment and who knows what news may hit that changes my plans in contests. As of now, I have one team in for sure and lots of work to do!

I will post my choices on Twitter/X Sunday morning and may make a video for TikTok and YouTube like I did a few times last year.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

My Plays
IND -7
KC -2.5
GB -14


Contest Picks
IND -6.5
KC -1.5

Computer Model Plays
Platinum
DEN -7
WAS -4.5

Premium
IND -7
LAR -7.5
SF +3
DET +2.5


Regular Plays
PHI -7
LAC -4.5
NE -3.5
PIT -6
DAL -3
SEA +1
TEN +4
GB -14
BUF -4.5

NFL Computer Model
2025-2026 Season
Overall 42-37 53.16%
Platinum 1-2 33.33%
Premium 11-5 68.75%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 12-7 63.15%

My Plays
Overall 6-5 54.54%
Draft Kings Contest Record 16-9 64%
Props/Parlays/Teasers/Other 2-2 50% +000

NFL Thursday Night Football Week 6


I am happily sitting at 16-9 in my pick’s contests. Tonight’s game is a little odd as we have a larger home divisional dog. I would normally side with the dog here, but this Giant’s team is not good. Pass for me. But the Eagles as a teaser leg are intriguing.


This is where I am at the moment and who knows what news may hit that changes my plans in contests. As of now, I have one team in for sure and lots of work to do!

I will post my choices on Twitter/X Sunday morning and may make a video for TikTok and YouTube like I did a few times last year.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

My Plays
6 Point 4 Team Teaser +240
PHI -1/DEN -1.5/IND -1/LAR -1.5
Following a week of massive favorites losing outright, we are playing the favorites and using them properly as teaser legs that cross key numbers.


Contest Picks

Computer Model Plays
Platinum


Premium


Regular Plays
PHI -7

NFL Computer Model
2025-2026 Season
Overall 42-37 53.16%
Platinum 1-2 33.33%
Premium 11-5 68.75%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 12-7 63.15%

My Plays
Overall 6-5 54.54%
Draft Kings Contest Record 16-9 64%
Props/Parlays/Teasers/Other 2-1 66.66% +100

NFL Week 5 Wagers, Contest Picks and Computer Model Plays

It hurts losing a contest play on Thursday. It is almost impossible to not select a game in which the line has changed and crossed key numbers. Going from -5.5 all the way to -8.5 seems like a pretty easy decision. I do not always take these situations though. I will be taking Houston +3.5 in the Draft Kings contest Sunday. That is a lock to select, and I assume everyone else does the exact same thing.

MIN -4.5 at CLE (LON)
Oh boy, we have a rookie QB against a Brian Flores defense. However, we have Carson Wentz and a beat up offensive line against the Browns defense. I think the best unit on the field will be the Browns defense. Lean Cleveland but pass for now.

DEN +3.5 at PHI
The Eagles have been bad yet remain 4-0. Denver would be a Super Bowl contender if they had much better QB play. I do not feel right laying points with the Eagles at this time. I need to see how the Philly offensive line holds up against the Denver defense. Lean Denver, but pass for now>

LVR +7 at IND
Geno and the Raiders are not good. Last week should have been an easy win with how well they ran the ball against Chicago, but Gen had other ideas. I know the Colts secondary is banged up, I just cannot be on the Raiders for the fourth time this year in five weeks. I am 2-1 on Raiders selections at this point and I think I may abstain.

NYG +1.5 at NO
Dart was not great throwing the ball last week, and not he has lost his best WR. I know the Saints are bad and Spencer Rattler has never won a game he has started. I think the Saints defense is good enough to make this interesting. Last week Omario Hampton was a weapon especially in the passing game, could this be an Alvin Kamara game? Lean NO, but nothing at this point.

DAL -2.5 at NYJ
Everyone scores on the Jets. If there is one thing Dallas can do it is score. This entire game might be defense optional. Pass on this game, but should be fun for DFS purposes.

HOU -2.5 at BAL
I am on the Texans +3.5 in contests. There is no chance I am laying points on the road with the Texans. Oddly, out model does have Houston grading out as a slight favorite. I think both teams are bad, but the Ravens have the coaching edge. Right? I mean I thought they did, but their defense has been horrendous.

MIA -1.5 at CAR
Does anyone want to watch this game? I am not touching this at all.


TEN +7.5 at ARZ
I am using Arizona in survivor this week. I elected to save the Rams because they host the Saints in a few weeks. Dodged a bullet there. I think everyone agrees the Cardinals should not be this large of favorite against anyone. However, I am sure you saw the same stat that I did that the Titans are 3-16 ATS under Brian Callahan. You know how Tom Brady used to brake models and do things never scene before, well the Titans continue to do just that in negative ways. I am not playing the Titans, nor the Cardinals. Pass.

TB +3 at SEA
This number is 3.5 in contests. We have a slow starting Bucs team that is not healthy on the road against a team with a rest advantage. No Bucky Irving, no Mike Evans and the offensive line is still banged up. The Bucs held the Eagles to ZERO passing yards in the second half last week and lost. I like betting on the Seahawk defense here and Sam Darnold not making a big mistake. Heavily lean Seattle in contests, I bet Seattle -3 (-115) over on Draft Kings Sportsbook.  

DET -10.5 at CIN
The Bengals are terrible. Everyone knows this team is dead in the water. I am not laying 10+ points on the road ever. Pass. Why do I want to stack the Bengals in DFS. Send help.

WAS +2.5 at LAC
I am not completely sure what to make of this game. Coming back home after a bad road loss, can be a great spot to back a good team. The Chargers though lost their other great OT. I do not have a good feel here at all. Pass.

NE +8.5 at BUF
The computer loves the Patriots. I was leaning Buffalo. That combo means I am passing.

KC -3.5 at JAX
I have no idea if the Jags are good. Last week Brock Purdy threw them the ball. The Jags could still not beat the Bengals a few weeks ago and I cannot get that out of my head. I like the Chiefs defense more than any other unit in this game. Pass.



This is where I am at the moment and who knows what news may hit that changes my plans in contests. As of now, I have one team in for sure and lots of work to do!

I will post my choices on Twitter/X Sunday morning and may make a video for TikTok and YouTube like I did a few times last year.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

My Plays
SEA -3


Contest Picks
LAR -5.5
HOU +3.5


Survivor
I am splitting my entries again to give me some different paths. I am using Arizona this week, as this is the only time they are really usable. I hate it.

 
Entry 1
Philly (WIN Week 1)
Baltimore (WIN Week 2)
Seattle (WIN Week 3)
Denver (WIN Week 4)
Arizona (Week 5)

Entry 2
Denver (WIN Week 1)
Detroit (WIN Week 2)
Seattle (WIN Week 3)
Houston (WIN Week 4)
Arizona (Week 5)

Computer Model Plays
Platinum


Premium
NE +8.5


Regular Plays
SF +8.5
MIN -4.5
IND -7
NYG +1.5
DAL -2.5
DEN +3.5
MIA -1.5
HOU -2.5
TEN +7.5
TB +3.5
DET -10.5
WAS +2.5
KC -3.5

NFL Computer Model
2025-2026 Season
Overall 32-33 49.23%
Platinum 1-2 33.33%
Premium 10-5 66.66%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 11-7 61.11%

My Plays
Overall 6-4 60%
Draft Kings Contest Record 13-7 65%
Props/Parlays/Teasers/Other 2-1 66.66% +100

NFL Thursday Night Football Week 5

It’s already October?! How did this happen so fast! Tonight, we have a very interesting spot for contests. Over in the Draft Kings contest the Rams are -5.5 and well I am sure you know where the number is now. This does cross a key number, but I have been anti using Thursday night games. What will I end up doing? I will update on Twitter later, but the computer despite injury adjustments really likes the Niners.

This is where I am at the moment and who knows what news may hit that changes my plans in contests. As of now, I have one team in for sure and lots of work to do!

I will post my choices on Twitter/X Sunday morning and may make a video for TikTok and YouTube like I did a few times last year.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

My Plays



Contest Picks



Survivor
I am splitting my entries again to give me some different paths. I think the Rams are a viable choice, but I am saving them for later in the year when they host the Saints.

 
Entry 1
Philly (WIN Week 1)
Baltimore (WIN Week 2)
Seattle (WIN Week 3)
Denver (WIN Week 4)

Entry 2
Denver (WIN Week 1)
Detroit (WIN Week 2)
Seattle (WIN Week 3)
Houston (WIN Week 4)


Computer Model Plays
Platinum


Premium


Regular Plays
SF +8.5

NFL Computer Model
2025-2026 Season
Overall 32-33 49.23%
Platinum 1-2 33.33%
Premium 10-5 66.66%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 11-7 61.11%

My Plays
Overall 6-4 60%
Draft Kings Contest Record 13-7 65%
Props/Parlays/Teasers/Other 2-1 66.66% +100

NFL Week 4 Wagers, Contest Picks and Computer Model Plays

Week four is when we think we know a lot more than we do. I know one thing for sure, the Steelers at this moment are not good. If you win the turnover battle at plus four, you should not be tied with under seven-minutes left in a game. I am an unabashed homer for my Steelers. I have been going to games for 37 years. This team is bad. I am afraid they get exposed on national tv on Sunday morning.

MIN -2.5 VS PIT (LONDON)
Brian Flores will have his defense feast on an immobile QB, with a somewhat shaky offensive line that can not run the ball. My counter would be Carson Wentz is the Vikings QB and yes, forcing turnovers is a skill. Can the Steelers win the turnover battle and win, sure. But I am out on this team until they look like they can stop anyone from driving into the redzone on every possession. Lean Vikings, but pass.

LAC -6 at NYG
The Chargers are very good, but I am not a fan of laying points on the road. Yes, homefield counts for less in 2025, but I am avoiding the Dart wildcard here. I want to back the Giants defense, but things have not been great in New York. Yes, they scored a bunch of points against the Cowboys, but it appears that every will be doing the same. Lean NYG, but pass.

PHI -3.5 at TB
Man, I want to be on the Bucs here. Each team has taken a unique path to being 3-0, with the Bucs needing to come from behind in every single game late in the 4th quarter. I with Tampa Bay was healthier and I would be inclined to be on them, and I still might be. Pass for now, but lean Bucs.

CLE +10 at DET
The Cleveland defense is good as we all know at this point. The Lions offense though has been excellent since their week one struggles in Green Bay. The Browns inability to score has kept them from having a winning record and it may do the same here again. I am going to lean on the Lions offense being the best unit in the game. I also believe the Lions defense will get pressure the way they have all season long and keep the Browns offense from doing anything. I lean Detroit but staying away for now.

NO +16.5 at BUFF
I want no parts of either side here. Pass.

WAS -1.5 at ATL
The Falcons looked horrendous last week getting shut out in Carolina. Maybe Penix and Falcons are just better in a dome. Washington is either playing a slightly banged up Daniels, or Marcus Mariotta on the road and laying points with out their top wide receiver. This feels like a great buy low spot for the Falcons. I think Atlanta gets back to running the ball and getting the ball in Bijan’s hands as much as possible. I am on Atlanta +1.5 in contests and as a wager.

TEN +7 at HOU
I hate the Texans. I think they can not block, or score points. I have decided that the Titans are just terrible their coach is getting fired at the end of the season. This is the best possible get-right spot for the Texans. If there is any life in Houston it happens here. I have been going against the Texans every week and now I am highly considering laying this many points with them. Lean Houston, but pass for now.

CAR +5.5 at NE
Both teams are actually bad. This number is too large, but I am not attacking this game. Pass for me.

IND +3.5 at LAR
I want to take the Rams here I really do, but maybe the Colts are actually a good team. I lean Rams but pass for now.

JAX +3.5 at SF
I continue to really like the Niners, but they keep losing key players. The Jags are not good. I think when this season ends, we are going to look back and say the NFC is significantly better than the AFC, outside of Buffalo. Maybe that is how it plays out, but we know the AFC South is bad. Pass on this game for now.

BAL -2.5 at KC
One of these teams will be 1-3. At this moment the best until in this game is the Ravens offense. Conversely, the worst unit in this game might be the Ravens defense. This is a fun game to watch, and I am not touching this game. The Chiefs are home dogs for the second time in two weeks and that did not work. Pass for me.

CHI +1.5 at LVR
I think the Dallas defense is making everyone look good. The Bears might just stink. I am not so sure the Raiders are good either though. The Bears defense is also bad and I think the Raiders defense may be able to get pressure on the Bears. This feels like a good spot for the Raiders to actually run the ball. Lean Raiders.

GB -6.5 at DAL
The Cowboys might be headed for an all-time horrendous season. I can not wait to see George Pickens melt down even more. Remember when the Steelers traded for the Bears second round pick, and it ended up being the first in the second round. I think Dallas is so bad and injured that the third-round pick might end up being extremely high. I do not want to lay points on the road, but I am considering the Packers. Dallas can not stop anyone. The Packers offense played badly, but that was more because of the Browns defense. Ean Green Bay.

NYJ +2.5 at MIA
The Dolphins were not that bad on Thursday against the Bills. The Miami offense showed some signs of life here. Both these teams are not good and we all know it. The Dolphins were a kickoff return away from winning their home opener and I think they will be competitive again. Lean Miami.

CIN +7.5 at DEN
I really want to take the Bengals to bounce back here, but the Denver defense could dominate the game easily. Pass for me. The Bengals offensive line is just so bad I want no parts of them.

This is where I am at the moment and who knows what news may hit that changes my plans in contests. As of now, I have one team in for sure and lots of work to do!

I will post my choices on Twitter/X Sunday morning and may make a video for TikTok and YouTube like I did a few times last year.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

My Plays
ATL +1.5


OREGON +3.5
I hate Penn State. Let’s get that out of the way. I live in and around tons of PSU fans and they are all well aware of their team’s limitations and record against top ten teams. Now, I get to fade them as a favorite against a top tier team? I am in.


3 Team 10-point Teaser -120
DET PK/ATL +11.5/LVR +8.5


Contest Picks
ATL +1.5


Survivor
I am splitting my entries again to give me some different paths. I am using Houston this week, as this is the only time they are really usable.

 
Entry 1
Philly (WIN Week 1)
Baltimore (WIN Week 2)
Seattle (WIN Week 3)
Denver (Week 4)

Entry 2
Denver (WIN Week 1)
Detroit (WIN Week 2)
Seattle (WIN Week 3)
Houston (Week 4)


Computer Model Plays
Platinum


Premium
NO +16.5
DET -10
SF -3.5
CHI +1
CIN +7.5


Regular Plays
ARZ +1.5
MIN -2.5
WAS -1
CAR +5.5
LAC -6.5
PHI -3.5
HOU -7
IND +3.5
BAL -2.5
GB -6.5
NYJ +2.5

NFL Computer Model
2025-2026 Season
Overall 27-22 55.10%
Platinum 1-2 33.33%
Premium 7-3 70%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 8-5 61.53%

My Plays
Overall 4-4 50%
Draft Kings Contest Record 9-6 60%
Props/Parlays/Teasers/Other 0-1 0% -100

NFL Thursday Night Football Week 4

It is week 4! Is this our first good game on Thursday night after the opener was ruined by lightning? I think so! The computer barely likes Arizona tonight. I am staying away, but this is a fantastic sports weekend!

I will post my choices on Twitter/X Sunday morning and may make a video for TikTok and YouTube like I did a few times last year.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

My Plays


Contest Picks


Survivor
I am splitting my entries again to give me some different paths.

 
Entry 1
Philly (WIN Week 1)
Baltimore (WIN Week 2)
Seattle (WIN Week 3)

Entry 2
Denver (WIN Week 1)
Detroit (WIN Week 2)
Seattle (WIN Week 3)


Computer Model Plays
Platinum


Premium


Regular Plays
ARZ +1.5

NFL Computer Model
2025-2026 Season
Overall 27-22 55.10%
Platinum 1-2 33.33%
Premium 7-3 70%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 8-5 61.53%

My Plays
Overall 4-4 50%
Draft Kings Contest Record 9-6 60%
Props/Parlays/Teasers 0-1 0% -100

NFL Week 3 Wagers, Contest Picks and Computer Model Plays

This is your reminder to check line movement after your contests lock their lines. There are going to be several interesting situations this week with obvious value.

GB -8.5 at CLE
The Packers are missing starters along the offensive line. The Browns defense has been very good. My only worry is will the Browns offense score here. I am willing to back the defense here and think the Browns make it ugly with their defense. CLE +8.5 in contests and as a wager.

NYJ +6.5 at TB
I do not like this game as a wager, however as a contest play I am interested. Over on DK in their contest the NYJ are listed at +7.5. This of course crosses a key number and gives you a lot of CLV. Tampa Bay will be without three starters from their planned starting offensive line. NYJ in contests only.

LAR +3.5 At PHI
I am extremely worried about the Eagles offense. The Eagles lost the Super Bowl, got a new OC, had an awful season. They then fired their OC, hired a new one and won the Super Bowl. Kellen Moore left to be the head coach of the Saints, and the Eagles offense is back in neutral. Lean Philly, but I do not like this spot.

ATL -5.5 at CAR
Pass for me. I hate laying points on the road and will not do so here. The Falcons offense feels like if they could convert some of these field goals into touchdowns, then their perception would be vastly different. I am staying away.

IND -4.5 at TEN
I would call this the Admiral Akbar game, but I am done with the Titans for now. I need to see their offense get going a little bit more before I can back them. If you add that in with the way the Titans collapse in the second half off games, I have more reservations about being on the Titans. Pass.

PIT -1.5 at NE
Nope. Done with the Steelers.

LVR +2.5 at WAS
I am out on this game as a wager. However, in contests where the Raiders are +3.5, I am interested. Jayden Daniels will not be playing and who knows if Washington has enough to score some points without their star QB. Pass on a wager, but in on Raiders in contests.

CIN +3 at MIN
Do you want to wager real money on Carson Wentz, or Jake Browning? Pass.

HOU +1.5 at JAX
The model loves the Texans. The Jags forced a bunch of turnovers last week, knocked out Joe Burrow and still lost outright and against the spread. Having said that I cannot back the Texans and their god awful offensive line. Pass for me.

NO +7.5 at Seattle
The model loves the Saints and feels like this number is several points too high. I am taking Seattle in survivor, not sure I want to take the Saints here and root against myself. This line is definitely inflated due to the perception of the Saints. Pass for me, but I could see taking the dog here.

DEN +2.5 at LAC
Maybe the Chargers are just that good? I think the Broncos defense is better than they showed last week. Pass for me.

DAL -1.5 at CHI
How can you lay points with the Cowboys here and feel good? Pass on this game.

ARZ +3 at SF
Full disclosure I bet the Niners -2.5 earlier this week. In contests the Niners are laying under a field goal as well. I really like the Niners this week no matter who the QB ends up being. SF as a wager and in contests.

KC -6 at NYG
The Chiefs will not go 0-3, but I am not betting on Kansas City to cover this number. Pass on this game.

DET +4.5 at BAL
The model also loves the Lions. The Raven’s defense is not healthy, and the new Lions offensive line was bad in week one, but much better in week two. If Goff has time the Lions will score, but not sure they can stop the Ravens at all.  I am passing on this game.

This is where I am at the moment and who knows what news may hit that changes my plans in contests.

I will post my choices on Twitter/X Sunday morning and may make a video for TikTok and YouTube like I did a few times last year.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

My Plays
SF -2.5
CLE +8.5

Contest Picks
SF -1.5
CLE +8.5
NYJ +7.5
LVR +3.5

Survivor
I am splitting my entries again to give me some different paths. Yet, for week three I am using Seattle in both. Yes, this is not ideal, but this is the only week at this point I would even consider using the Seahawks. I would like to save Baltimore, Buffalo and some other teams for use later in the season. Planning to go 18 weeks is hard and of course I might be eliminated before I even get there, but we need to map it all out.
Entry 1
Philly (WIN Week 1)
Baltimore (WIN Week 2)
Seattle (Week 3)

Entry 2
Denver (WIN Week 1)
Detroit (WIN Week 2)
Seattle (Week 3)


Computer Model Plays
Platinum
DET +4.5
NO +7.5
HOU +1.5

Premium
PIT -1.5
PHI -3.5


Regular Plays
MIA +12.5
WAS -3.5
GB -8.5
TEN +4.5
MIN -3
TB -6.5
ATL -5.5
DEN +2.5
CHI +1.5
ARZ +2.5
KC -6

NFL Computer Model
2025-2026 Season
Overall 18-15 54.54%
Platinum 0-0 0%
Premium 4-3 57.14%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 4-3 57.14%

My Plays
Overall 3-3 50%
Draft Kings Contest Record 6-4 60%
Props/Parlays/Teasers 0-1 0% -100