NFL Week 11 Wagers, Contest Picks and Computer Model Plays

Feels like I am close to dead in Circa several games under .500, I would need an insane run to even come close to cashing. DK is a little different as I am just a few games outside the money line. I have gone on runs like crazy before and it can happen again!

BAL -3 at PIT
The Steelers always play well against Lamar and the total is very high, surprisingly. Is there a doubt here? I mean, if the line is three or larger just take the dog when these two play. In reality, the Steelers can run the ball, and everyone can throw the ball on Baltimore. I am curious to see how the Steelers defend Lamar if their trend of slowing him down continues. Steelers in picks contests and as a bet.

JAX +13.5 at DET
Yeah, I am just taking Detroit at home against bad teams that struggle to score. The Lions coming off an awful game at home against Mac Jones. I am in. Lions in contests and as a bet. Lock this in before it jumps to -14.

GB -5 at CHI
Packers off a bye week and healthier, but the Bears might be better with a new OC. Pass for me though.

MIN -6 at TEN
Sam Darnold is tuning back into Sam Darnold. I kind of like the Titans defense at home but Will Levis still exists. Pass for me.

LVR +7 at MIA
I am not laying the points here, but I am not taking the Raiders either. Pass.

LAR -4 at NE
Have the Patriots maybe figured it out? I kind of lean New England since it seems like the Rams just can not close anything out once they get near the redzone. Pass for now, but I am happy the home dogs are back.

IND +4 at NYJ
God No. Just keep this off redzone and every tv around me.

CLE -1 at NO
A healthy Browns team against a horrendous defense that just traded their best corner. I love the Browns. Here. The saints got their one dead cat bounce, but they still have zero WR’s and can not stop anyone. Browns as a wager and in contests.

SEA +6.5 at SF
Speaking of teams who can not get in the endzone. Pass here for me.

ATL +2.5 at DEN
Kirk Cousins on the road outdoors and they cannot rush the passer. I lean Denver. The Broncos are the little brother of the Chargers, smart, physical and can run the ball. Lean Denver.

KC +2 at BUF
This became an auto bet during the playoffs last year and I stayed away a few weeks ago against the Niners. The Bills have no healthy wr and are missing Dalton Kincaid. Mahomes as a dog. Auto bet until it loses several times in a row. Chiefs in contests and as a bet.

CIN +2 at LAC
I like the unsexy team here in the Chargers. We are headed completely back to physical running football dominating along with a defense. That is the Chargers. The Bengals cannot stop anyone. Lean Chargers.

HOU -7.5 at DAL
Pass. I am not laying more than a touchdown with the Texans until healthy. Pass.

I will post all my plays Sunday morning on Twitter or YouTube and Tik Tok.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

My Plays and Contest Picks
PIT +3 (In contests they are +3.5 in some spots, which I love of course.)
DET -13.5 (I am good up to -14 as well)
KC +2
CLE -1

KC +8/PIT +9.5 (6-point Tease DK -120

Computer Model Plays
Platinum


Premium
DET -13.5MIN -5.5
LVR +7.5
IND +4
HOU -7.5


Regular Plays
WAS +4
CHI +6.5
NE +4.5
NO -1.5
PIT +3
ATL +2.5
SEA +6.5
KC +2.5
LAC -1.5


NFL Computer Model
2024-2025 Season
Overall  81-69 54%
Platinum 3-6 33.33%
Premium 25-17 59.52%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 28-23 54.49%

My Plays
Overall  25-25 50%
Circa Millions Record 21-29 42%
Draft Kings Contest Record 25-25 50%

NFL Week Ten Wagers, Contest Picks and Computer Model Plays

I could really use a 5-0 week in contests!

NYG -6.5 at CAR (LONDON)
God no. Pass.

PIT +3 at WAS
Mike Tomlin as a dog. Check. Mike Tomlin against a rookie QB. Check. Washington has not faced a top defense besides the Bears and they barely could move the ball. I will take the physical Steelers on both sides of the ball here. Steelers in contests and as a wager.

NE +6 at CHI
This is terrible again. Pass.

BUF -4 at IND
The Colts might just be bad, and the Bills keep cruising along. Stopping the run is an issue for Buffalo, are the Colts smart enough to actually pound the ball. Pass for me.

DEN +7.5 at KC
I am just not laying a bunch of points with the Chiefs. I think I have not gotten the Chiefs or their opponent, when I have wagered on or against them. Pas.

ATL -3.5 at NO
Man, I want to lean into the Saints getting the dead cat bounce. Chris Olave being out along with the Saints having no one to stretch the field is an issue. Pass for now.

SF -6 at TB
Niners off a bye week, the Bucs played a Monday Night Football overtime game. What’s that? San Fran is getting the best offensive weapon back. Oh, the Bucs still do not have any WR and lost another one? Sign me up. Niners in contests and as a wager.

MIN at JAX
In one of my contests MIN is -4. That is an obvious choice. The Jags are slowly tanking without actually tanking. Had that game finished closer to the 22-0 score as it started and this is actually a number closer to 8-9 points. Vikings in contests and as a wager. My god, here we are adjusting and taking SAM DARNOLD laying a TD on the road. What is happening.

TEN +7 at LAC
Chargers. The Titans can not score, and the Chargers beat and dominate bad teams. Chargers in contests and wagers.


PHI -7.5 at Dallas
Man, I want to take Dallas so badly, but we need to adjust to 2024. Pass on this game.

NYJ -1.5 at ARZ
Pros have moved this number toward the Jets. I am not backing Rodgers and the Jets on the road. Pass for me.

DET -3.5 at HOU
If Nico Collins is out, I am highly interested in the Lions. Lean Detroit.

MIA +1 at LAR
This is a weird number and professionals have come in on the Dolphins. The Rams get some offensive lineman back. Pass for me.


I will post all my plays Sunday morning on Twitter or YouTube and Tik Tok.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

My Plays and Contest Picks

Computer Model Plays
Platinum
MIN -7
DET -3.5

Premium
DEN +8
PHI -7


Regular Plays
BAL -6
NYG -6
CHI -6
BUF -4
NO +3.5
TB +6
PIT +3
LAC -7.5
NYJ +1
LAR -1.5


NFL Computer Model
2024-2025 Season
Overall  73-63 53.67%
Platinum 2-5 28.57%
Premium 23-17 57.5%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 25-22 53.19%

My Plays
Overall  22-23 48.88%
Circa Millions Record 19-26 42.22%
Draft Kings Contest Record 22-23 48.88%

NFL Week Nine Wagers, Contest Picks and Computer Model Plays

We had another winning week and are slowly building. Need to keep the momentum going in these contests, because it is getting late early for me.

Either way we are on to week nine!

MIA +6 at BUF
The Dolphins are not good, especially on defense. I said it was getting late early for me, but it really is for Miami. A Bills win here feels like it locks up the division in November! I think the Dolphins lack an identity, but they did run the ball well against the Bills in their first matchup. Lean Buffalo.

DEN +8 at BAL
I am not playing Bo Nix on the road against the Ravens coming off a loss. Pass.

LVR +7 at CIN
The Bengals should not be laying a touchdown to anyone. I am not backing the Raiders on the road either. Pass.

WAS -3.5 at NYG         
This is what I mean by we must adapt. I would never lay points on the road in division, but I will here. Washington is going to score, that is a fact. I do not know the Giants can stop them or score enough to keep up. WAS in contests and as a wager.

LAC -1.5 at CLE
I was all over the Browns last week and I am doing it again this week. The Chargers have struggled when they have played better teams. I am running it back here. The Browns have life and are way more fun, not to mention they can actually move the ball. I know Jameis will throw the ball to the other team three times per game, just need to hope those are dropped again like lats week. Cleveland in contests and as a wager.

DAL +3 at ATL
Are both these teams secretly bad? Pass. Dallas is not good, but the Falcons have a majority of their yards and points coming against the Bucs and bad teams.

NE +3.5 at TEN
Nope. Who cares. Keep this off all quad box options.

NO -7 at CAR
Is Derrick Carr playing? If he is I am laying the points on the road. What could go wrong. I am in agreement that the Panthers are historically bad. Saints, with Carr in contests and as a wager.


JAX +7.5 at PHI
You can only play the Eagles here. Pass for me. Jags have no offense and Philly has been all over the place, but seems to have found their identity.

CHI +1.5 at ARZ
Pass. This is a fun game, but I do not know what to make of either of these two teams coming off their last game.

DET -3 at GB     
The Lions finally play outside, and it may rain. The Packers have a question at QB as it may be Malik Willis. The Lions are the public play for sure, as this almost seems too easy. Pass for me, but I think the Packers are fraudulent.

LAR -1 at SEA
The Seattle defense is slowly getting healthy, but the offense without DK Metcalf is bad. Provided this Puka injury is not a real issue, this feels like another road division favorite I like. This is going to go so badly. I am trying to adjust and figure out this season and playing favorites now seems to be the way. Lean LAR.

IND +5.5 at MIN
I want to play the Colts so badly, but will Minnesota blitz Joe Flacco out off the field? Lean Colts.

TB +8.5 at KC
Ugh, pass. I hate laying points with the Chiefs and the Bucs have a slew of injuries.



I will post all my plays Sunday morning on Twitter or YouTube and Tik Tok.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

My Plays and Contest Picks
WAS -3.5
CLE +1.5
NO -7 (If Carr)

Computer Model Plays
Platinum
BUF -6
WAS -3.5

Premium
HOU +2
LAC -1.5
NO -7
DEN +9
CHI +1
DET -3


Regular Plays
ATL -3
LV +7
NE +3.5
PHI -7.5
SEA +1
IND +5.5
TB +8,5



NFL Computer Model
2024-2025 Season
Overall  67-54 55.37%
Platinum 1-4 20%
Premium 21-13 61.76%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 22-17 56.41%

My Plays
Overall  20-20 50%
Circa Millions Record 18-22 45%
Draft Kings Contest Record 20-20 50%

NFL Week Eight Wagers, Contest Picks and Computer Model Plays


Finally, the books decided to give us some much larger numbers. I think the bad teams have become very visible and known. People like me who bet a lot of dogs and see the value in them are not doing as well as those favorite bettors, aka the public. We must adjust and keep moving forward.

BAL -8 at CLE
The Ravens coming off that big MNF road win are now laying a ton of points on the road. The Browns have to better with Jameis. This number has come down as the professional side seems to be the Brown. I lean Cleveland, but I am not a fan of going against this Ravens offense right now.

TEN +11.5 at DET
Who is playing the Titans here? The case for fading Detroit is, this is a natural let down spot between the Vikings last week and the Packers next week. Tennessee can not score, nor really stop anyone. Lean Detroit, but I do not like the spot.

GB -4 at JAX
Home dogs have been getting killed. I am out on the Jags coming back from two weeks in London. The Packers are a public play, but pass for me.

IND +5 at HOU
Nope, pass.

PHI +2.5 at CIN
If the Bengals are good, they win here. I mean they have to. Right? You can throw on the Eagles, but you can run on the Bengals. I think the Bengal’s coaching staff is smart enough to know how to attack, but has screwed up enough that I am leery. I lean Bengals.

NYJ -7 at NE
Lay seven with this offense on the road? No thanks, pass.

ATL -2.5 at TB
I want to jump on the home dog with no healthy wide receivers. However, pass.

ARZ +4.5 at MIA
I was ready to be on MIA -3.5 in picks contests and will do so still. This is the perfect lay an egg spot for the Cardinals, late MNF win and now travel East to play at 1 PM Eastern. The Dolphins are healthy and will score. I remember the Cardinals can be susceptible to the pass. MIA is picks contests and as a bet.

BUF -3 at SEA
Man, I can not with Seattle. Pass.

NO+7 at LAC
This is either take the Chargers or pass. I hate this game too.

KC -9.5 at LVR
I am not going to do it and take the Raiders. I am not laying double digits on the road, or close to it. Pass.

CAR +11 at DEN
In most picks contests this is -9.5 and I am highly interested in Denver. No one is playing Carolina anymore. The Panthers are going to be +14 every week moving forward. Denver in contests.

CHI -3 at WAS
Jayden Daniels practiced Friday in a limited capacity. If Daniels sits, I will not use real money to back a Marcus Mariota team. Lean Chicago.

DAL +4 at SF
Nope. I hate both teams.

NYG +6 at PIT
I am not laying this many points with Russell Wilson. This is the Tomlin meh spot where they lose outright or struggle to win. I am going to try and stay away. Steelers do have a great matchup in this game all around.

I will post all my plays Sunday morning on Twitter or YouTube and Tik Tok.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

My Plays and Contest Picks
DEN -9.5
MIA -3.5


Computer Model Plays
Platinum
GB -4

Premium
MIN -3
DET -11
ARZ +3.5
DEN -10


Regular Plays
CIN -2.5
BAL -8.5
NE +7
TB +2.5
IND +5
NO +7
BUF -3
KC -9
WAS +3
SF -4PIT -6.5




NFL Computer Model
2024-2025 Season
Overall  58-47 55.23%
Platinum 1-3 25%
Premium 18-12 60%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 19-15 55.88%

My Plays
Overall  15-20 42.85%
Circa Millions Record 15-20 42.85%
Draft Kings Contest Record 16-19 45.71%

NFL Week Seven Wagers, Contest Picks and Computer Model Plays

I am incapable of going 4-1 or better. At least it seems that way! I seem to be 3-1 and have a night game that can push us over the top and nope. Either way, we continue on the path, and it is a long journey. I am headed to Pittsburgh for the Steeler game this weekend and it is apparently Russell Wilson time.


NE +6 at JAX (LONDON)
I am not laying the points here. I am kind of interested in the Pats ands the points, but why. Pass for now.

DET +1.5 at MIN
The Vikings coming off a bye week hosting the red hot offense of the Detroit Lions. If the Lions defense was healthy I would be all over them, but I am hesitant. I lean Detroit and the points, but I am not interested in playing the Vikings in this matchup.

PHI -3.5 at NYG
Pass. The entire division is bad.

HOU at GB -2.5
Houston is still missing Nico Collins and despite playing well in New England, CJ Stroud does have home/road splits. The Packers are secretly, slowly getting healthy. I like the Packers at home giving less than a field goal here as I continue to fade the Texans. Packers -2.5 in picks contests and as a wager.

CIN -5.5 at CLE
I am not laying this many points on the road, even if Deshaun Watson is on the other side of this game. This is the game, if the Browns do not score here then they never will. Pass for now.

TEN +9.5 at BUF
I hate laying this many points, but I am leaning that way. Have you seen Will Levis play? Oh boy, the Titans will be moving on at years end. Lean Buffalo.

SEA +3 at ATL
The Seattle defense is injured and cannot stop anyone since all of these injuries have started to mount up. I rarely have got Atlanta correct this season, but fading that Seattle defense makes sense until they get healthy and stop someone. Lean Atlanta.

MIA +3 at IND
The Dolphins coming off a bye week against the Colts, who like Seattle can not stop anyone. If Miami can not get it going this week, they are completely cooked until Tua returns. I like Miami here in contests where it is +3.5.

CAR +8 at WAS
This is a lot of points, but the Panthers can not stop anyone. Lean Washington, but the over is the play here.

LVR +7 at LAR
Pass on this game.

KC +1.5 at SF
I know we rode the Chiefs as a dog the entire playoffs. Yet, why were the Chiefs a dog in the playoffs? Oh, they took random games off during the season where they did not play well. This is Andy Reid off of a bye week, but this is also the perfect spot for the Chiefs to a drop a game. Kansas City is the public dog of the week. Lean SF.

NYJ -1.5 at PIT
My Steelers as a home dog on primetime?! I lean the Jets if anything. Sauce Gardner can take away Pickens. Leaving the immobile Russell Wilson to throw to, Van Jefferson? If the Steelers can run the ball they can win this game, but the passing game will have to make more plays without Justin Fields legs to bail them out. The Jets offensive line may collapse under pressure, but first team to 17 win here. Lean NYJ.

BAL -3.5 at TB
I am riding with the home dog here that can score points in bunches. Baltimore still struggles on defense and while they should win, I like the Bucs run stuffing abilities here and potent offense. TB +3.5 in contests and as a wager.

LAC -2.5 at ARZ
Another home primetime dog. The Cardinals are not good and without MHJ are even worse. I think this may be a good spot to back the home dog here. Are the Chargers really going to win two straight road games as short favorites? Lean ARZ.

I will post all my plays Sunday morning on Twitter or YouTube and Tik Tok.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

My Plays and Contest Picks
GB -2.5
TB +3.5
MIA +3.5

Computer Model Plays
Platinum
WAS -7.5

Premium
IND -3
NYG +3.5
PIT +1.5
TB +3.5


Regular Plays
NO +3
NE +5.5
ATL -3
BUF -8.5
CIN -5.5
GB -2.5
DET +1.5
LVR +7
KC +1.5
LAC -2



NFL Computer Model
2024-2025 Season
Overall  50-40 55.55%
Platinum 0-3 0%
Premium 16-10 61.53%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 16-13 55.17%

My Plays
Overall 13-17 43.33%
Circa Millions Record 13-17 43.33%
Draft Kings Contest Record 14-16 46.66%

NFL Week SIX Wagers, Contest Picks and Computer Model Plays

Two years ago, it felt like every team I bet made a play when I needed it. Nothing encapsulated that like the Raiders running-back the lateral to beat the Patriots in that tie game. This year it seems like the opposite. The Bengals not covering, let alone losing outright after having three separate 10-point leads and the ball in OT needed a field goal to win. The Rams missing an extra point forcing them to go for two, instead of kicking another extra point and being down three getting 3.5 points. Oh well. These things happen. No matter what, there is always another week and it is a long season.

JAX +1 at CHI
Nope. Pass for me. I can not get the Jags correct.

CLE +9.5 at PHI
I mean, they have finally decided the Browns are terrible. The Eagles should not be favored by this many over anyone, but here we are. Pass for me.

WAS +7 at BAL
Yes, there are some +7’s still out there. This really feels like the Admiral Akbar game of the week. The Ravens never cover big numbers. The Commanders keep winning games despite expectations. Neither team can defend the pass. Lean Washington.

HOU -7 at NE
This is where I live. The worst team in the NFL starting a rookie QB making his first career start. SIGN ME UP. Seriously, this is a home dog getting a touchdown. We bet numbers at times, not teams. Houston will be without their best WR and it appears Joe Mixon again. I expect the Patriots to hang around and lose an ugly game. Pats in contest and as a wager.


ARZ +5.5 at GB
Despite last week, I believe the Cardinals are bad. The Packers are slowly getting healthy and can exploit the Cardinals terrible defense. If the Niners had a kicker last week, this number is closer to seven points. Packers in contests and as a wager.

TB -3.5 at NO
No way. Not all home dogs starting a rookie QB are the same. Pass.

IND +3 at TEN
This line makes zero sense. Pass.

PIT -3 at LVR
I am abstaining for the Steelers on the road here. Too many injuries that continue to add up are a massive problem for Pittsburgh. Pass.

LAC -3 at DEN
Ohhhhh boy do I want to take the home dog here. Pass. I am not sure what either of these teams are.

ATL -6 at CAR
I am not laying six with Kirk Cousins on the road at 1 PM. I am also not taking the Panthers getting six at home.

DET -3 at DAL
This is my most public play of the week. The Lions coming off a bye week, Dallas having played into Monday last week. The Cowboys defense can not stop the run and lost even more defenders. Detroit remembered that they have a fantastic offensive line two weeks ago against Seattle. I am on Detroit in contest and as a wager.

CIN -3.5 at NYG
What have the Bengals done to show they deserve to be a road favorite of more than three. I know, no Nabers, but I like the Giants defense a lot better than the Bengals defense. I may change but for now NYG in contests.

BUF -2.5 at NYJ
This is the last hurrah for the Jets. Josh Allen coming off his non concussion, concussion. If the Jets do not win here, it is going to be a long season. Lean NYJ, because of the defense and not an old QB who may just suck now.


I will post all my plays Sunday morning on Twitter or YouTube and Tik Tok.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

My Plays and Contest Picks
NE +7
GB -5.5
DET -3
NYG +3.5


Computer Model Plays
Platinum


Premium
IND +3
NO +3.5
CLE +9.5
PIT -3

Regular Plays
SEA +3.5
CHI -1.5
GB -5.5
NE +7
WAS +6.5
DEN +3
DET -3
ATL -6
NYG +3.5
BUF -2.5



NFL Computer Model
2024-2025 Season
Overall  42-34 55.26%
Platinum 0-3 0%
Premium 13-9 59.09%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 13-12 52%

My Plays
Overall  10-15 40%
Circa Millions Record 10-15 40%
Draft Kings Contest Record 11-14 44%

NFL Week Five Wagers, Contest Picks and Computer Model Plays


I feel like I am stuck in the middle here. Feels like every week there is a night game that can swing the week in a positive way, and it is not happening at this point. Oh well, we soldier on as the first quarter of the season is over. It is nice that the Circa Millions has quarter prizes as well that people can win should their season go sideways.

NYJ +2.5 at MIN (LONDON)
This is an odd one. At the start of the season, it would be for sure the Jets would be favored. Now the Jets cannot score, have a QB that cannot move at all and are somehow facing the 4-0 Minnesota Vikings. The Vikings defense has been incredible, not to mention the play of Sam Darnold. This will be the best test for both the Minnesota offense and the Jets defense. I am firmly in the camp of the Jets are not very good. The favorites have cleaned up in Europe. The Jets have one WR and the line has struggled to protect and make running lanes. While the defense has been solid, they have only played one real team in the Niners. The Niners got whatever they wanted whenever they wanted. This game is a massive coaching miss-match favoring the Vikings. I could be walking into a trap here, but Vikings in contests and as a wager.

CLE +3.5 at WAS
The Browns can not score. Washington can not be stopped. This feels like a trap. Coming off two massive road wins in a row and their third overall, this feels too easy. The Browns are getting healthier, but the QB remains. I am passing, but there is an easy argument to be made that the Commanders can get to 21 no matter what and Cleveland can not. Lean Wash, but pass for now.

BAL -2.5 at CIN
This is the most random spot that I love. Everyone watched the Ravens destroy Buffalo on Sunday night and of course we were on them. The public is all over the Ravens and thinks they are the team to beat at this point. I am going the other way. I believe the Bengals stack the box and force Lamar to throw on them, which has been a struggle at times. On the other side of the ball, the Bengals offense has been on fire. I expect that to continue as the Ravens defense is not what it once was. Of course last week the game got away from the Bills and the Ravens played very well defensively when the Bills were one-dimensional. What happens to the Ravens if the Bengals do that to them? I expect the Bengals to score here and force the Ravens to keep up. They won’t. Bengals in contests and as a wager.

BUFF at HOU -1
This line has now flipped to Houston -1. I continue to believe Buffalo is fraudulent and only beaten bad teams. The first time they faced a real offense they got shredded. I am weary of going against Buffalo after a big loss, since I am not that into the Texans. Without Joe Mixon, the running game has been bad. Buffalo will be missing at least one key member of their offense in Shakir and at some point, a lack of weapons matters. Lean Houston but staying away for now.

CAR +4 at CHI
I hate this game. How can the Bears lay more than three points to anyone. Pass.


IND +3 at JAX
This is a must win for the Jags. I hate this game as well. I would either play the Jags or pass. No thank you.

MIA +1 at NE
I mean why? Pass.

ARZ +7 at SF
This feels like the spot you should be on the Cardinals, but San Fran back home with all their weapons feels like the better play. I am passing here.

LVR +2.5 at DEN
Again, nope. Pass here. Some of these games are terrible.

NYG +7 at SEA
The Giants appear to be without Singletary and Nabers. A team that struggles on offense loses two of their only options. Ugh, pass. Seattle is coming off a short week traveling home with a slew of defensive injuries. Pass.

GB -3.5 at LAR
This is the Admiral Akbar game of the week. Who wants to back the injured Rams here? I do! The Packer’s defense is not good and teams have thrown on them. I think the Rams will run the ball and Stafford will find the randoms he has been throwing to. Lean Rams in contests and as a wager.

DAL +2.5 at PIT
The Steelers will put JPJ on Lamb and then are worried about stopping, who? Tolbert? Ferguson? The Steelers defense lines up perfectly to attack Dallas. There will be pressure unless they stop calling holding like they did last week. Dallas’s defense will not be good, especially with their two studs out of the front seven. This feels like an old-school Steeler’s primetime spot. Steelers in contests and as a wager.

NO +5.5 at KC
This feels dumb. The Chiefs are missing their RB. The Chiefs are missing their stud WR. The Chiefs are relying upon an undrafted free agent and a guy they signed off the street to play running back. Juju will matter in the Chiefs passing attack from now on. I fully expect the Chiefs to win this game by three points or so after a late field goal or Carr turnover. My god am I backing the Saints in primetime on the road in KC?! YES, I AM. Saints in contests and as a bet.


I will post all my plays Sunday morning on Twitter or YouTube and Tik Tok.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

My Plays and Contest Picks
PIT -2.5
NO +5.5
CIN +2.5
MIN -2.5


Computer Model Plays
Platinum
SF -7.5

Premium
MIA +1
BAL -2.5
CLE +3.5
LAR +3.5
DAL +2.5

Regular Plays
TB +2.5
MIN -2.5
CHI -4
IND +3
BUF -1
LV +3
SEA -6
NO +5.5

NFL Computer Model
2024-2025 Season
Overall  37-25 59.67%
Platinum 0-2 0%
Premium 10-7 58.82%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 10-9 52.63%

My Plays
Overall  9-11 45%
Circa Millions Record 9-11
Draft Kings Contest Record 10-10

NFL Week Four Wagers, Contest Picks and Computer Model Plays

Another chance for a 4-1 week becomes a 3-2 week because of Atlanta. The lesson here is that Atlanta is the issue, ha. Nevertheless, here we are on our search for five games against the spread. Remember I will post my contest plays on Twitter Sunday morning and hopefully posting on YouTube and Tik Tok.

PIT -1.5 at IND
This season especially, you want to be on the opposite side of the public. The Steelers are the public side here. However, the Colts have a lot more injuries than expected. The Colts offensive line contains some of those injuries. The only way the Colts win this game is by their offensive line dominating the Steelers defensive line. Anthony Richardson has a proclivity for turning the ball over and I see the Steelers defensive line winning, considering those injuries to the Colts. Teams have been able to run on the Colts. The Steelers want to run the ball. This is the game Najee Harris gets going. The Steelers always defend Lamar Jackson well and Richardson is the homeless man’s version of Lamar. Call me John Q Public as I am on the Steelers in bets and in contests.

DEN +7.5 at NYJ
I am not laying more than a TD with the Jets. This is a good spot to fade the Broncos after that win, but pass.

PHI -1.5 at TB
The Eagles are coming off a huge road win and appear to be without AJ Brown, Devonte Smith and Lane Johnson. The offense was not exactly clicking with those guys. Tampa Bay played awful last weekend and this is a great spot for them to get the offense going. You can throw on the Eagles and I believe the Bucs will. I will take the small home dog here, provided the Eagles offense remains on the injury report. Bucs in contests and as a wager.

MIN +2.5 at GB
Jordan Love is coming back it appears, but the Vikings defense is very good. I am passing here.

CIN -4.5 at CAR
If the Bengals could not get a win on Monday night in a huge spot, why would we expect them to go on the road and get a win? Lean home dog Carolina, but pass for me.

JAX +6.5 at HOU
The Texans are 0-3 ATS this season despite a 2-1 record. I think everyone watched the Jags implode on Monday and who will actually tag the Jags? Professionals it appears. I am passing, because I do not like either side.

NO +2 at ATL
Both teams had their center get hurt and will not play in this game. I have no clue here. I am 1-2 wager on Falcons games and 0-1 wagering on Saints games. Maybe I should avoid these two teams.

NE +10.5 at SF
Pass. Niners will be getting some people back, but ehhh. No thanks.

LAR +3 at CHI
The professionals have hit the Bears here and driven this number all the way to +3. The Rams could have easily been blown out last week, but miraculously got a win. The Bears have some questionable coaching to say the least. Lean Bears as an offensive breakout spot but pass for now.

WAS +3.5 at ARZ
Washington is the public side here, but I am passing here. I think both defenses are bad.

KC -7 at LAC
This line has fallen and that is because of professionals betting the Chargers. I am of the belief that both starting OT’s will be out for the Chargers and someone not named Justin Herbert will be the starting QB. The Chiefs have a history of winning and not covering these games. Pass for me, too many unknowns.

CLE +1.5 at LVR
The Browns are slowly dying and of course I lost going against them during their only win of the season. The Raiders laid an egg at home last week and have a great chance to attack that Browns offense. Cleveland lost more offensive lineman to injury and they were already thin in that spot. The Raiders if nothing, can get a pass rush. I like the Raiders and if I had to make picks now, they would be my 5th team. Heavily interested in Raiders 1.5.

BUF +2.5 at BAL
This line looks suspicious. The 1-2 Ravens are favored over the 3-0 Buffalo Bills. Buffalo’s defense has been suspect all year, but played well against Tua for a half during a Thursday night game and of course crushed the Jags on Monday. Bills have a short week and are on the road this week. I think the Ravens get it right and win this game. I am heavily interested in the Ravens as a bet and in picks contests.

TEN +1 at MIA
I have no clue here. Who is the QB for the Dolphins? Will the Titans give up another touchdown on offense? Pass.

SEA +3.5 at DET
This is not the Lions from last year. Goff has been off. Their center tore his pec and is done for the year. I had the Lions last week in Arizona and watched that entire game. The Lions of last year blow that game open and win easily. Instead, it became a sweat as that Lions offense died in the second half. They could not run it effectively and Goff was all over the place. If you look back, Goff was not great in week one. Struggled against the Bucs at home in week two, then could not shut the door on the Cardinals in week three. Provided the Seattle defense remains healthy, pending Friday practice reports, I like the Seahawks to keep this close and maybe win. Seattle in picks and as a wager.


Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

My Plays and Contest Picks
SEA +3.5
PIT -1.5TB +2
Leaning toward
BAL -2.5
LVR -1.5


Computer Model Plays
Platinum


Premium
DAL -6
DEN +6.5
JAX +6.5
SF -10.5
CLE +2
MIA -1

Regular Plays
NO +2.5
LAR +3
GB -3
PIT -1.5
TB +2
CIN -4.5
WAS +3.5
LAC +7
BAL -2.5
SEA +3.5

NFL Computer Model
2024-2025 Season
Overall  28-18 60.86%
Platinum 0-2 0%
Premium 7-4 63.63%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 7-6 53.84%

My Plays
Overall  7-8 46.66%

NFL Week Three Wagers, Contest Picks and Computer Model Plays

The computer has been on fire after two weeks, I have not. I knew last week would be wonky, but not that strange. With two weeks, we have a little more information on all these teams and hopefully we can profit off of it this weekend! As always, I am looking to find five games I like for the Circa Millions picks contest.

LAC +1.5 at PIT
A team has an old resurgent running back, a banged up QB and zero weapons, and is on the road against the best defense in the NFL and bare barely a dog. I get the argument of Herbert is better than Fields, but this is a strength-on-strength game. I am not impressed with the Chargers at this point and the Steelers win in Atlanta looks even better now. Fields ability to run has been the item that keeps this offense moving into field goal range and I think that occurs again. Notice I did not say touchdowns, but in this game 17 points may be more than enough. I like the Steelers in contests and as a wager.

CHI +1.5 at IND
I hate both these teams. Neither team can stop the run. Both teams have young fun QB’s. The Bears offensive line is atrocious, and I think that will be the difference. I am hopeful the Colts figure somethings out here and run the ball successfully. Lean Indy.

HOU -2 at MIN
This is the Admiral Akbar trap game of the week. This number has come down as professionals are on the Vikings. Despite being 2-0, something feels off with the Texans. I think they will figure it out. Are the Vikings really headed to 3-0? Brian Flores has the Vikings defense playing extremely well and the Texans have struggled on the road. Lean Vikings.

NYG +6.5 at CLE
It seems like the Giants are the correct side here. It feels impossible to take Daniel Jones on the road against a good defense. Pass for now, but lean NYG.

PHI +3 at NO
This is the game with the biggest week-to-week spread change. If I told you this was the spread two weeks again you would have assumed that Jalen Hurts was out, and Kenny Pickett was leading the Eagles. I do not know what to make of this game. I do not trust the Saints and think the Eagles have to be better. Yet, the Eagles are all over the place and feel headed for a coaching change in a few months. Pass.

DEN +6.5 at TB
Nope. I am not laying almost a TD with the Bucs. Maybe Denver is better than they have shown losing to Seattle and Pittsburgh, but I am not wagering to find out. Pass.

GB +2 at TEN
Ready to get weird? If Jordan Love is ruled out, I am all about the Titans here. In both of their first two games the Titans defense was solid. They only lost to the Bears because Will Levis made some real choices on protecting the ball. The Titans should have had more points last week as well, but Levis went full Levis again. Titans could easily be 2-0 ATS. The Packers did the best they could to win will Malik Willis last week and had to hold on, despite very little offense. I think the Titans defense will completely shut him down. Titans as a wager and leaning toward contests too. If Love plays, I am out though.

CAR +5 at LVR
Nope. I know the Panthers are the correct side here, but I can not do it. Pass for me.

MIA +4.5 at SEA
Pass. Seattle has not covered either game as a favorite this year. This line is obviously inflated, but I am passing.

DET -3 at ARZ
The Lions dominated last week but had no points to show for it. The Cardinal’s defense was supposed to be bad, and the Bills scored a bunch of points, but the Rams without both starting WR’s and missing four offensive-line starters struggled, go figure. This is a get right spot for the Lions. If Detroit cannot score 28+ this weekend, they are not who we thought they were. Arizona comes back down to Earth here and will see the Lions pass rush get home. Lions as a bet and in picks contest.

BAL -1 at DAL
Pass. I have no clue here. Are the Ravens really going to be 0-3, seems unlikely. Is Dallas as bad as they looked last week, also impossible. Dallas’s pass rush could dominate this terrible Ravens line, but I am skeptical all around. I am out.

SF -7 at LAR
I want to take the Rams so badly. This is still Brock Purdy on the road laying a touchdown, without CMC and Deebo. The Rams are so beat up it is comical. Pass.

KC -3.5 at ATL
The Chiefs have won both their first two games, but they have come down to the wire. I am not thinking of backing Kirk Cousins in primetime, am I? Oh baby, I am. The Chiefs have no running back now. Travis Kelce has slowed down. This feels like a spot the Chiefs start slowly and win a close game. I am taking the home dog getting more than a field goal. Falcons in bets and contests at +3.5.

Jags +5.5 at BUFF
The Jags are the right side here, but I am done with them for now. I thought this offense would have weapons, but it does not appear so. Maybe that is coaching, or the QB, but either way, nope.

WAS +7.5 at CIN
Pass. This game is screaming Bengals blowout win, but are they capable? I am reluctant. We can agree the Commanders defense has been shredded by WR in the first two weeks. I am out.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

My Plays and Contest Picks
PIT -1.5
DET -3
ATL +3.5
I will post my picks on Twitter/X on Sunday morning.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

Computer Model Plays
Platinum
MIA +4.5

Premium
NYJ +6.5
BAL -1
SF -7
DET -3


Regular Plays
CLE -6
GB +2
CHI +1.5
MIN +2
PHI +2.5
PIT -1.5
DEN +6.5
CAR +5.5
KC -3.5
JAX +5.5
CIN -7.5


NFL Computer Model
2024-2025 Season
Overall  19-11 63.33%
Platinum 0-1 0%
Premium 5-2 71.42%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 5-3 62.5%

My Plays
Overall  4-6 40%

NFL Week Two Wagers, Contest Picks and Computer Model Plays

How disappointing is 3-2 when you start 3-1. Sadness. Anyway, I have been sick the last few days and that might explain why I am going against my model in a few spots.

LVR +8 at BAL
Ravens always struggle laying more than a touchdown. That Ravens offensive line may struggle with the Raiders pass rush. I am passing, but I am taking Baltimore in Survivor.

SF -5 at MIN
We do not make money by laying points on the road. Pass here.

NO +6 at DAL
I love the Cowboys at home. We get to bet against the Saints here, when we know the Cowboys are going to score. I am on Dallas in bets and contests.

LAC -5 at CAR
I mean, this is our second home dog getting more than a FG, but nope. You know how Tom Brady and the Pats used to break models and conventional norms, well the Panthers may do that in the opposite direction.

IND -3 at GB
I want to take the Packers so badly here, but Malik Willis exists. Pass for me.

TB +7.5 at DET
If the Buc’s defense was healthy, I would be very interested in Tampa Bay. This feels like an easy trap of taking the dog here. I wonder if the public recalls the playoff game. Pass for me.

NYJ -3.5 at TEN
On a short week you want to lay points on the road with an old man at QB? Nope, pass.

SEA -3.5 at NE
I am not laying more than a FG on the road. I am just not.

NYG +1.5 at WAS
I want to jump right back on the Giants, but I am hesitant. I think both of these teams are terrible, but the Giants have to be better than they showed. Lean Giants.

CLE +3 at JAX
The Jags came through last week for us, but could have easily won outright. With a lead they fumbled into the end zone late on Sunday. Part of adjusting and betting NFL, especially in week two is being ready to change your opinions on the fly. The Jags defense did well against the Dolphins. The Browns offense is now missing their stud TE, has a makeshift OL and yeah, their QB might just be washed. I am on the Jags -3 in contests and wagers.


LAR +1 at ARZ
The Cardinals defense was extremely and last week and gave up 14 plays of ten or more yards. I am prepping myself to take the Rams team missing three offensive line starters and no Puka. Lean Rams.

CIN +6 at KC
A year ago I would have jumped on the Bengals. Now, no Higgins, a bad offensive line and a lack of preparation to start the season seems to be plaguing the Bengals. I am leaning KC with the rest advantage, a strong defense and offense that is better than it has ever been.

PIT -2.5 at DEN
This is testing me and my Steeler love so badly. I WILL NOT LAY POINTS WITH JUSTIN FIELDS ON THE ROAD. I WILL NOT LAY POINTS WITH JUSTIN FIELDS ON THE ROAD. I WILL NOT LAY POINTS WITH JUSTIN FIELDS ON THE ROAD. I WILL NOT LAY POINTS WITH JUSTIN FIELDS ON THE ROAD. I WILL NOT LAY POINTS WITH JUSTIN FIELDS ON THE ROAD. I WILL NOT LAY POINTS WITH JUSTIN FIELDS ON THE ROAD. I WILL NOT LAY POINTS WITH JUSTIN FIELDS ON THE ROAD. Lean Steelers.

CHI +6.5 at HOU
Bears may only have DJ Moore at WR and they struggled with a good defense last week. Lean Houston, but I hate betting favorites.

ATL +6.5 at PHI
Do we all recall how well Kirk Cousins performs in primetime? On the road. In Philly. The Eagles have a rest advantage. Also, Cousins was so immobile last week he took zero snaps from under center. Yes, the Eagles defense is not what it used to be, but I like them here. Eagles in contests and for a wager.

So, here we go I have three games at the moment and need to find two more for contests.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

My Plays and Contest Picks
DAL -6
PHI -6.5
JAX -3

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

Survivor
Week 1 Seattle
Week 2 Baltimore

Computer Model Plays
Platinum
LAR +1

Premium
SF-6
CLE +3.5
CHI +6.5
ATL +6.5

Regular Plays
BUF +2.5
NO +6
TB +7.5
GB +3
TEN +3.5
NE +3.5
NYG +1.5
CAR +6
BAL -8
DEN +2.5
CIN +5.5


NFL Computer Model
2024-2025 Season
Overall  10-5 %
Platinum 0-0 0%
Premium 2-1 0%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 2-1 0%

My Plays
Overall  3-2 60%