Normally, when someone tells you a gambling story, it has an awful ending. This is not one of those stories. I wanted to take advantage of the Fan Duel Sports Books parlay insurance. If you make a parlay bet that includes five teams and go 4-1, they will refund your bet up to $25. I normally shy away from parlays, as they are more for fun than likely to make a profit. The odds are obviously skewed and it is hard enough to win one bet, let alone several.
I approach parlays the same way I do future bets, I want to have a chance to hedge or break even if the opportunity presents itself. I will talk about this concept in terms of future bets next week before the NBA season starts. In order to maximize hedging opportunities, the last game of the parlay needs to be much later than the other games. (This does not mean pick a side you do not like just because it is later in the slate.) I really loved the Steelers this week and thought they would be the ideal team to finish my parlay. As the week progressed, I realized I really liked the Lions as well. As an added bonus, Fan Duel Sports Book had the best line on the Lions at +4.5. If you read this blog last week, you knew I had some college teams I liked as well. (Part of the trick with the parlay insurance is it must contain at least two different sports. You cannot bet 5 NFL games and be eligible.)
I decided to play Duke -17 and Central Michigan -10 on Saturday. Then I added Minnesota -3, the Steelers +7 and the Lions +4.5 to finish the parlay. I ended up having a nice Saturday and both Duke and Central Michigan came in. I really only needed to hit two of the three remaining games to break even and not lose my original bet. I think it is important to try to take advantage of the odds boosts and promotions that these new sports books are running, like the parlay insurance.
On Sunday morning, I bet the Vikings separately and again Fan Duel had the best line of -3, while other shops had moved the line to -3.5. The Vikings got off to a blazing start and held on to easily win and cover. At this point, I started to feel very confident that the parlay had a chance. I loved the Steelers. They were my favorite bet of the week. I loaded up on them at +7, +6.5 and the money line. I also want to thank the Sugar House Sports Book for the Steelers money line odds boost to +500. (Most places were +230 or so) The Steeler game was almost never in doubt. That left me with a fun decision to make.
I wanted to make sure I locked in a profit and the only way to do so was to hedge against the Lions. The first thing I wanted to consider was that I knew from the parlay insurance I was getting my original wager back no matter what already. Taking that out of the equation, I began to explore my hedging options. The Lions were down to +3.5 in most books and while that gave me a chance to hedge it did not leave me a chance to middle the game. I hoped all day long the Packers would fall to just -3, but it never materialized. If I was going to give up some of the equity I had built into the parlay winning, I wanted to give myself a chance at a bigger win. After discussing with some friends, we rationalized the optimal play was the Packers money line. I price shopped and found -186 was the best value, again on the Fan Duel Sports Book. I crunched some numbers and decided to give up about 25% of my parlay profits in my Green Bay money line wager.
The Green Bay money line wager gave me the following possible results:
Green Bay wins by 5 or more = Win 20% of parlay profit.
Green Bay Loses = win 80% of parlay profit.
Green Bay wins by 1-4 = win 120% of parlay profit.
This seemed optimal to secure a win and build my bankroll, and then Detroit got up 13-0. I checked the live betting and Green Bay was +4.5 for the game. This felt like a great spot to make my middle window even larger. As long as Detroit did not blow out Green bay, I could get some of my hedge wager back. I locked in Green Bay +4.5. Immediately, Green Bay came down and scored. I felt good. By half time, I thought I had a chance at this. I thought I must have adrenaline pumping through my veins. I fell asleep before the third quarter started. Being a working parent with two young kids is hard.
My daughter woke up to go to the bathroom and asked me to come and get her back to bed. I was startled and slightly confused what time it was since I was asleep on the couch. I checked my phone, Detroit 22 Green Bay 20. Ohhhhhh, this could happen.
I laid down in bed next to my daughter and tucked her in. I wanted to make sure she went back to sleep. I streamed the game on my phone on the ESPN app. Green Bay was moving the ball. By this point, the Packers had three people from the crowd playing wide receiver. Then it happened. After the questionable penalty call against the Lions, Green Bay called timeout. I thought, is Matt Patricia smart enough to realize he needs to let the Packers score here to have a chance? He was. Fortunately, Jamaal Williams was just as sharp.
How many times have we seen a running back purposely fall down to secure a win or to waste time? This has happened what five time in the history of the NFL. On the same play, both the Lions defense and Williams made the optimal play. This feels like a rare occurrence. The Lions wanted to let him score. Williams wanted to waste time to set up an easy field goal for the win. Williams sat down on the two-yard line with an open end zone in front of him. I wanted to scream out a loud “Ohhhhhhhhhhhh Yeahhhhhhh,” like the Kool-Aid Man crashing through a wall. I could not. I was lying in bed next to a sleeping toddler. I watched as Mason Crosby casually hit the easy field goal for the win. Packers 23 Lions 22.
I swept everything. I hit my parlay. I hit my hedge on the Packers money line. I hit my in game wager on Packers +4.5. For once, this gambling story had a happy conclusion. I middled the game perfectly. I am taking the time to realize this does not happen often, but when it does, we must rejoice.
The computer had another solid week going 9-5 overall. In terms of picking every game against the spread being over 60% in insanely good. Platinum plays went 1-1 and premium plays went 1-2. Collectively after six weeks of the NFL season, the computer model is doing very well as you can see below. We will be back later in the week. Until then, good luck everyone.
Platinum 9-5 (64.28%)
Premium 13-11 (54.16%)
Overall 54-35-2 (60.67%)
College Teasers and Parlays 4-4 (50%) +40
College Picks 16-14-1 (53.33%)
NFL Teasers and Parlays 4-4 (50%) +280
NFL Picks 15-7 (68.18%)
Overall Teasers and Parlays 8-8 (50%) +320
Overall Picks 31-21-1 (59.61%)
Baseball Record 93-61 +2586
Baseball Parlays 28-74 -995
I mean you can play this two ways. Bet the Niners money line, win a little, and get a refund if the Eagles lose too. Basically, it will help take the SF money line down some. Conversely, if you bet the Eagles money line for $50 and it wins you will get a nice payout. If it loses you get your money back in free bets. This feels like a great spot to bet the Eagles money line for the max $50.
