Nothing like hitting a +2000 Derrick Henry prop to end the regular season! Overall, the computer model has done extremely well for the entire season. I will have a more detailed breakdown of the NFL computer model before the NFL playoffs start. We are also working on a brand new NBA model, but are currently testing it out before releasing its selections. Our previous NBA models have been decent, but this is something we started from scratch.

Make sure you are following us on twitter as we may post plays there later in the day. We are also working on some YouTube content in the future. Make sure you subscribe here so you know when it all goes live!

NBA Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
Curry 6+ Three Pointers Made +230 (FD)
Curry has made of six three’s just once this season and that was yesterday. I am not a fan of this on a back to back either.

Ben Simmons Ober 30.5 Points/Rebounds/Assists +120 (DK)
This is a really fair number for Simmons in all three areas. FD has this as 31.5 and it is -108. I think this is worth a small investment.

Sixers/Hawks/Rockets ML Parlay +200 (Fox Bet)
The real odds on this are around +169 or so depending upon where you look. I think you are safe on two of these games, but then you could always bet the Mavs and the points and try to middle it if the first two are looking good. I have officially talked myself into this one, max is $25 though.

NCAA Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
Draft Kings has a weak college hoops boost where a 2-point road favorite is included. I will pass on that.

For today, I am looking into a few games.

NCAAB
Drake -10.5
They just beat the same team by 18 points.

NBA
Hawks -7
After an ugly loss to the Cavs on the back-to-back, the Hawks are well rested and should resume scoring in the 120+ range.


Let’s Get Weird
Sixers ML/Hawks ML/Bucks ML/Heat ML +123

Basketball
2020-2021 Season Record
NBA Record 3-4 42.85%
NCAA Record 2-5 28.57%
Hoops Parlay Record 2-3 +171
Hoops Odds Boosts 1-0 +110

NFL
2020 Season Record
Overall 138-107 56.33%
Platinum 2-5 28.57%
Premium 24-15 61.54%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 26-20 56.52%

Week 17 is weird in a normal year. This year with Covid is even more bizarre. Alvin Kamara will miss the Saints game this week and can only play next week if New Orleans plays on Sunday. I bet the NFL makes that happen. Please be hyper-aware of motivation, bonuses and resting. Lines are going to look a little strange, but please research and understand why.

Never forget that sports betting is a game with no end date. There is always another game, another day, or another sport. Bad runs are going to happen. Make sure you are practicing bankroll management and working on your process. As always, if you have any questions about anything just hit me up on twitter and I will get back to you eventually.

Week 17 Odds Boost You Should Consider
Draft Kings
100% odds boost on the Orange Bowl.
I know this is not NFL, but if you want to play the game, I would use this.

The rest of the DK boosts are all themes of a certain NFL outcome and honestly, meh. I mean I get it the sites do not want to hang a boost and find out a team has Covid or is resting people and get crushed.

Fan Duel
Pat’s Picks
He has something about JJ Watt, but is there a reason he plays all the snaps he normally does in a meaningless game? I will pass on spots where there is little motivation.

Extra Points for Extra Pay
None listed.

Minus Three’s Boost
None listed.

Single Game Parlay
This used to be fun and free.

FD also has a Dallas/Washington/Cleveland parlay, but yeah, I am not backing the first two teams right now.

Fox Bet
Mike Evans and Calvin Ridley Combined over 175 receiving yards +100
I really like this. Evans needs a certain amount for a contract bonus and the Falcons have not been terrible. They had a combined 273 just a few weeks ago. (Max is $100)

Derrick Henry 223 or more rushing yards. +2000
This would give him 2000 yards on the season and at this price might be good to play. I am using some of my free bets on this.

If anything else is posted on sites, I will mention them on Twitter.

Plays I Will Be On
TBD
I will post what I do on twitter, as this week is very fluid between motivation and Covid. I will do the same with any and all hoops plays I make today.

These lines are based on the Westgate Super Contest and lock on Wednesday night.
(Despite our weighting of the rest and Covid situation, both the Chiefs and Steelers grade out as nice plays)
Computer Model
Platinum Plays
None

Premium Plays
PIT +9
KC +3.5

Regular Plays
MIA +1
CIN +12.5
DET +6.5
NE -3
NYG +1.5
TB -6.5
GB -5.5
LVR -2.5
JAX +14
LAR +2.5
SF+6
NO -6.5
HOU +7.5
WAS -2.5

Basketball
2020-2021 Season Record
NBA Record 2-4 33.33%
NCAA Record 2-5 28.57%
Hoops Parlay Record 2-3 +171
Hoops Odds Boosts 1-0 +110

NFL
2020 Season Record
Overall 127-103 55.22%
Platinum 2-5 28.57%
Premium 23-14 62.16%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 25-19 56.81%

Going 0-2 in college hoops was not ideal, but I hit the Sabonis prop easily. My NBA only parlay came through too. I ended up plus money thanks to those two wagers. If only High Point had not blown their lead in the second half it could have been a great way to end 2020. As always, I will update my record at the bottom for all sports. I believe in full transparency. If I am losing, you will know it. If I am winning, you will as well. NFL computer model plays and breakdowns of those odds boosts will be in another post coming later today. I wanted to get this out early, because there are some College Football wagers I wanted to make.

NBA Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
Meh, nothing I am into at this time.

NCAA Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
Alabama and Clemson to win +100 (Fox Bet)
This is pretty easy to me as I think both teams roll. Sadly, the max bet is $10.

50% Live bet boost on any bowl game (Draft Kings)
Here is what I am going to do. I am going to opt into this boost, wait until the Alabama game starts and live bet them instead of paying juice I will have plus money. I just need to wait until the game kicks off. I mean, why play it before hand at worse juice? Of course, if the opening kickoff is run back, it could not work, but I will take my chances.

20% CFB parlay boost (Draft Kings)
They will not let you include any team that is larger than -500 in this. Sadly, I was planning on Alabama, Georgia, Clemson and then boosting. You can do Georgia and Clemson to -114, but I wanted to include Alabama.

For today, I am looking into a few games.

NCAAB
St. Peters -4.5 (1PM)
Let’s start this new year off with a college hoops game. Canisius has been beaten by 18+ points in their last two home games. St. Peters has been competitive and done well in every game, except at Maryland. I think the competition is a little worse today.

NBA
Boston -9
The Pistons are the worst team in the league. They are 0-4 and have lost by 10, 9, 8, and 10 points. Those losses include the Timberwolves and the Cavs. So, ummm, Boston is a slight upgrade.


Let’s Get Weird
3 Team CFB 7-Point Teaser +140
Georgia -2.5
Alabama -11.5
Clemson -.5

Basketball
2020-2021 Season Record
NBA Record 2-3 40%
NCAA Record 2-4 33.33%
Hoops Parlay Record 2-2 +271
Hoops Odds Boosts 1-0 +110

NFL
2020 Season Record
Overall 127-103 55.22%
Platinum 2-5 28.57%
Premium 23-14 62.16%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 25-19 56.81%

Went a disappointing 1-1 last night, but felt good about the Celtics never being in doubt. Many weird times today as many games wrap up before New Year’s Eve festivities start up. Well, at least they would have in a normal year.

NBA Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
Draft Kings is offering a 20% boost on one NBA game per day for the rest of 2020. I boosted the small NBA money Line parlay. There is one more DK odds boost I hit up and think you should too.

Draft Kings Domantas Sabonis Over 37.5 combined points/rebounds/assists + 110
I am on this one. Against the Celtics, Sabonis twice fell short. Against two bad teams, he smashed this number. I believe the Cavs are bad.

NCAA Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
Draft Kings has a 100% boost and a free bet awarded for taking the ML dog of a game. The smaller the spread, the more likely you do not lose both ends and you can make a profit and get a free bet. You can do the exact same thing as yesterday! I gave a perfect example of how to pull this off in yesterdays post. Small, favorite and a plus money dog, is the perfect recipe.

For today, I am looking into a few games.

NCAAB
San Francisco -12.5
Two-road games against decent teams and San Diego has two 20+-point losses.

High Point -4.5
These two played yesterday and High Point won and by 11 points. I have gone against South Carolina Upstate a few times this year already. They are 0-9 and have a proclivity for getting blow out.

NBA
Pacers ML/Sixers ML/Raptors ML +181 (Boosted to +217 on DK)

Let’s Get Weird
SF ML/High Point ML/Pacers ML Parlay +114
Pacers look good and Victor Oladipo seems to be close to his old self. Obviously, I like the other two games.

Basketball
2020-2021 Season Record
NBA Record 2-3 40%
NCAA Record 2-2 50%
Hoops Parlay Record 1-1 +190

NFL
2020 Season Record
Overall 127-103 55.22%
Platinum 2-5 28.57%
Premium 23-14 62.16%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 25-19 56.81%

Last night was not great, but we are back grinding today. I will be on 93.7 The Fan in Pittsburgh to discuss sports betting at around 1:40 PM today, come and listen!

NBA Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
Draft Kings is offering a 20% boost on one NBA game per day for the rest of 2020. I boosted the Celtics up to plus money when laying the six points. The rest of the DK boosts are not that great and carry a little more risk than the boost is worth.

NCAA Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
Draft Kings has a 100% boost and a free bet awarded for taking the ML dog of a game. The smaller the spread, the more likely you do not lose both ends and you can make a profit and get a free bet. Here is an example. The smaller the spread, the more likely you are to not lose both ends, but it reduces your money line potential profit. This example, can work, but look around and see what else is out there.

For today, I am looking into a few games.

NCAAB
Baylor -42
Alcorn State has been beaten by 40+ several times this year. Baylor is going to win easily, could win by 50+.

NBA
Boston -6
Memphis is coming off a big win against the Nets. Life without Ja Morant will not be easy and it starts tonight.


Let’s Get Weird
 Nothing today.

Basketball
2020-2021 Season Record
NBA Record 1-3 25%
NCAA Record 2-1 66.66%
Hoops Parlay Record 1-1 +190

NFL
2020 Season Record
Overall 127-103 55.22%
Platinum 2-5 28.57%
Premium 23-14 62.16%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 25-19 56.81%

Last night was great. Drake won and covered. My hoops parlay came in with only one game being in doubt. Lastly, I noticed later in the evening that Draft Kings offered a 100% boost on one NFL bet for the Monday night game. I took the Bills -7 and boosted them to plus money. The downside is the max bet is $50 on these type of boosts, but I will take it as the Bills rolled easily.

NBA Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
Draft Kings is offering a 20% boost on one NBA game per day for the rest of 2020. I boosted the Cavs up to plus money when laying the three points. The rest of the DK boosts are not that great and carry a little more risk than the boost is worth.

For today, I am looking into a few games.

NCAAB
Nothing for today. I did almost play Houston -8.5, but Tulsa is not horrendous, so I decided to pass.

NBA
Cavs -3
I have no idea how the Cavs may just move to 4-0 on the year. No Kevin Love for the Cavs, but the Knicks are missing a bunch of people and coming off a big win over the Bucks.  As weird as it is, Alec Burks being downgraded to doubtful makes the Knicks bench insanely bad. I mean it was already bad before all of their injuries to start the season, but the bench is going to be decimated tonight. Major minutes may be in line for the starters.


Let’s Get Weird
LA Clippers ML/Cavs -3/Houston Cougars ML Parlay +177
Clippers after that horrid blowout loss, Cavs I am already on and I think Houston win, but it could be tight.

Basketball
2020-2021 Season Record
NBA Record 1-2 33.3%
NCAA Record 2-1 66.66%
Hoops Parlay Record 1-0 +290

NFL
2020 Season Record
Overall 127-103 55.22%
Platinum 2-5 28.57%
Premium 23-14 62.16%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 25-19 56.81%

First, I want to say make sure you are following me on Twitter as I am posting plays there when I do not have time for a write up.

If you do not bet the Bills Spread the Love FD promo with the Bills at +101 tonight, then you hate money.

NBA Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
Nothing worth mentioning. I assume this will improve as the NFL fades and the NBA ascends to the top of the sports world.

For today, I am looking into a few games.

NCAAB
Drake -5 (5 PM)
Drake played this same team yesterday and easily won and covered. Why would today be any different? This is not the NBA.

NBA
Nothing for me tonight.


Let’s Get Weird
ATL ML/UTA ML/ DEN ML/Buffalo Bills ML/Drake ML Parlay +290
I am betting on the NBA teams that struggled early and need a win and going against the worst team in the league. I think the Bills win and take care of business. Obviously, I am on Drake.

NBA Record
1-2 33.3%

NCAA Record
1-1 50%

NFL
2020 Season Record
Overall 127-102 55.46%
Platinum 2-5 28.57%
Premium 23-14 62.16%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 25-19 56.81%

I will be updating this throughout the weekend as the sites post their odds boosts. Many of the major sites are offering holiday gifts, or treats, but you have to log in and see what you get daily. I mentioned some of them below, as well as what I received. I assume Fan Duel will offer something too eventually. I will also continue to post my plays as we progress toward the NFL weekend.

Make sure you listen to my podcast with Jeff Collins from Numberball.com, it is also posted on You Tube.  Please like and subscribe here. We break down every game against the spread and give you our picks at the end.  

Week 16 Odds Boost You Should Consider
Draft Kings
Giving away a gift boost per day. You have to opt in daily to see what you get. I got the Lakers +500 to win the title. Not bad, but $10 max bet.

Fan Duel
Pat’s Picks
Not posted yet.

Extra Points for Extra Pay
Not posted yet.

Minus Three’s Boost
Not posted yet.


Single Game Parlay
They keep changing how this works and what you need to make sure you get a refund if it loses. This is not as great as it once was.


Fox Bet
Giving everyone a free bet. Log in and open your chest. Mine was $1. LOL.

If anything else is posted on sites, I will mention them on Twitter.

Plays I Will Be On
TBD

These lines are based on the Westgate Super Contest and lock on Wednesday night.

Computer Model
Platinum Plays
None

Premium Plays
CIN +8.5
ATL +10.5

Regular Plays
MIN +7
TB -9.5
SF +5
MIA -3
NYJ +9.5
PIT +2
JAX +7.5
NYG +11
DEN +3
CAR +2.5
DAL +2
LAR +2
TEN +3.4
NE +7

2020 Season Record
Overall 119-96 55.35%
Platinum 2-5 28.57%
Premium 21-14 60%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 23-19 54.76%

Basketball is finally back in our lives full time. I have slowly been betting college hoops and sharing my plays with a few people. It has gone well, but I need to make these public for full transparency. I will not be counting those that I already have given out since; I did not post them publicly for everyone to see.

Last night was the NBA appetizer and tonight is the main course. There are thirteen games tonight! If you have not done so, you should be joining us over on Numberball.com to use the optimizer and read the daily rundown. If there is one sport, you for sure need to look at projections in order to play DFS it is the NBA. One small injury could alter a team’s minute distribution or rotations and make certain players significantly more valuable.

I must say that for the first big slate of NBA games, the odds boosts are weak. I am not sure what I expected, but it was a lot more than this. Draft Kings has one boost everyone must bet the max available. While Fan Duel has an interesting money line parlay boost, the news that James Harden may have to sit for his extra-curricular activities make it easy to avoid that situation.

NBA Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
Draft Kings
Joel Embiid over 7.5 point in the first Sixers game +100.
This has a max bet of $25, but is free money. His actual prop should be somewhere in the mid to high twenties.

For today, I am looking into a few games.

NCAAB
UNC Wilmington -19 (12 PM)
I have had success betting against bad teams recently. Due to Covid and travel, many teams are playing some bottom feeders and blowouts have become pretty routine. I am expecting the same here. Delaware State is 0-3 losing by 60, 26, and 28 points. This feels like another blowout incoming.

Washington State -17.5 (5 PM)
Same as the game above. Northwestern State is 1-9 and lost by 20+ in five of their losses. NWST’s last four games have seen them lose by 27, 27, 38, and 17.

NBA
Charlotte -2 @ Cleveland
Charlotte was a lot better and competitive last year than I expected. While they split their two games last year, the Hornets got significantly better. I cannot say the same about the Cavs.

Milwaukee -3.5 @ Boston
When the Celtics beat the Bucks last year their leading scorer was Kemba Walker. Now, Walker is hurt, Gordon Hayward is gone and the Celtics are just not as good as last year. I think the Bucks will be very good and I could see the Celtics struggling to start without Kemba Walker. Two road favorites tonight, this should go well.

NBA Record
0-0 0%

NCAA Record
0-0 0%

On Sunday October 11, the Los Angeles Lakers won the NBA Championship. On Monday October 12, I made my first wager for this upcoming season. I saw the Golden State Warriors as excellent bounce back candidates. The Warriors were listed at +1400 to win the NBA title. A healthy Klay Thompson, Steph Curry and Draymond Green along with the second pick in the draft and a large trade exception. Sign me up! Every other team that went deep in the playoffs would be facing the shortest rest in NBA history before the season started. The Warriors essentially took the entire season off after their marathon stretch of NBA titles and deep playoff runs.

The Warriors odds had dropped to around +800 to win the title. I felt like I had great value. Remember, it is not always about picking the winner, but getting the best value on a bet that you can always hedge.

Then Klay Thompson got hurt.

At this point, I could just bemoan the situation and realize I was stuck with a ticket that seemed less likely to ever come to fruition, or I could add more at a better number. Guess what I picked? Jeff Collins laid out a solid argument, as to why the Warriors could still contend and obviously, I did not need a lot of pushing to agree as I was on the Warriors before the Klay injury. You should listen to Jeff’s NBA season preview pods that can be found here and here.

Now, I have the Warriors at +1400 and +2500. I also bet the Warriors to make the playoffs at -151.

Maybe I am crazy, but if Kelly Oubre and Andrew Wiggins can be 90% of what Klay Thompson and Andrew Iguodola were on the original Warriors teams, they can compete. Factor in that James Wiseman is the great unknown. He could be amazing and the Warriors seem to think he just might be, then why can’t Golden State? The Warriors still own Minnesota’s top three protected pick in 2021 and if it carries over it is unprotected in 2022. That pick has a tremendous amount of value and if Golden State is in the thick of things comes March and could be flipped for a real asset. If the Warriors ended up as a top three seed in the Western Conference it would not shock me.

I always like to have a team on each side of the league for a futures ticket and picking an Eastern Conference runner, with odds that I like has not been easy. However, one team has clearly gotten significantly better, and may improve during the season. Here is a quick rundown of how everyone finished the regular season last year in the East.

1. Milwaukee
2. Toronto
3. Boston
4. Indiana
5. Miami
6. Philly
7. Brooklyn
8. Orlando
9. Charlotte
10. Washington
11. Chicago
12. New York
13. Detroit
14. Atlanta
15. Cleveland

 We can eliminate many of these teams easily. While Atlanta, Washington and Charlotte will be a lot better, none of them will contend to actually win the East. Brooklyn is the obvious easy choice as most improved, but I am not looking at any team that has a first time coach and Kyrie Irving figuring prominently.

Before last season many people, including myself were very high on the Sixers. Plenty of NBA media also picked them to win the East. Now ask yourself, are they better now than last year?

The Sixers added the following off the court.
One of the best GM’s in the league in Daryl Morey.
One of the most respected coaches in the league in Doc Rivers.

No matter your opinion on them, they are both significant upgrades at their respective positions and professionals who will make an immediate impact.

On the court, the Sixers flipped Josh Richardson for Seth Curry. Turned Al Horford’s contract into Danny Green. Add in a few draft picks for depth and the Sixers are primed to be the team they were supposed to be last year.

Oh yeah, they may also flip Ben Simmons for James Harden in the future. My belief is the Sixers want to see how their newly built roster with a brand new head coach may look. The Philadelphia schedule appears to be very soft at the start. Just look at this.
Wash
NY
Cle
Tor
Orl
Char
Char
Wash
Brk

The Sixers could start strong and be 8-0 before playing the Nets in early January. This is a long explanation to say that I bet the Sixers at +2500 to win the NBA title. They are already down to +1700 in most spots.

My Predictions for the NBA Season
Best Record Milwaukee Bucks
Worst Record Detroit Pistons
Most Improved Player Ja Morant
Rookie of the Year LaMelo Ball
MVP Luka (But I don’t like any of the bets)
Eastern Conference Sixers Over Bucks
Western Conference Lakers over Mavs
NBA Finals Lakers over Sixers

My Bets
Warriors NBA Champions +1400 and +2500
Sixers NBA Champions +2500
Warriors to make playoffs -151
Most Improved Player Ja Morant +2400

I will be posting more wagers through the season and tracking them here. I have avoided any win total or win percentage bets due to the unknown schedule in the future. Plus, if my money is going to be tied up for a long time frame, I prefer it be for bigger payouts. Yes, I did have the Lakers at +400 for a long time last year though, but that was pre-pandemic.

NBA Record
0-0 0%

NCAA Record
0-0 0%