Two games with two key injuries tonight. Joel Embiid is questionable as it appears he will be all year every single night. I think he plays based upon the current spread. If it gets higher, obviously, there may be word he sits. LeBron James was downgraded to questionable tonight and the line fell two points after opening at five. This is trending toward saying he will sit based upon movement. I cannot wait to try an figure out DFS with the Lakers in the late game.

NBA Model Plays
UTA -7
SAS +3
DAL -11
GSW -9 (Highest rated in model)
PHI +2

*If two games or more reach a certain level, we will label them highest rated in model. The record at bottom will be updated to note we may have more than one top play per day from the computer model.

Basketball Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
$20 risk free same game parlay (FD)
There is an opt in required, but always do this when it is risk free.

$25 risk free same game parlay (DK)
Again, you have to do these things and get a free bet if it loses.

Rockets and Mavs to combine for 30+ made 3’s +110 (DK)
Dallas averaged 13.5 made 3’s per game.
Houston averages 14 made 3’s per game.
Yes, super small sample size but that should put it at around 27.5 made 3’s. I am passing as it is requiring a few extra made threes.

Jokic to record 50+ Points/Rebounds/Assists +160 (DK)
Jokic’s combo is set to 45.5. If you think Denver on a road B2B at Utah is going to be competitive, then by all means you can play this. I would rather bet Jokic gets a triple-double at +460 though. He is going to need 30-10-10 or pretty close to pay off this bet anyway. Might as well aim a little higher. Pass on this boost.


Embiid and Randle to combine for 50+ Points -105 (DK)
Randle’s point prop is set to 23.5 points.
Embiid’s point prop is set to 26.5 points.
This is a fair price. I only really want to play boosts that I think I am getting a deal on, so I am passing here.

3×2 Boost Sixers and Knicks +100 (FD)
I see Fan Duel is back with this trash again. This is two or more made 3’s inside the first 3 minutes of game time. I keep saying it, I do not bet timed boosts. Remember the day FD had to argue with people on if it went through the hoop or was released before 3 minutes of game time elapsed? This is not worth that aggravation. In addition, the total of 217, is ehh indicating a slower paced game.

Embiid and LeBron 1+ dunk each +110 (Fox Bet)
At some point I am going to stop mentioning these boosts. Embiid does not dunk anywhere near as often as you think he would. I hate these. Pass.

GSW/DAL/DEN to all win +400 (Fox)
Of course, they throw in the 7-point dogs in the Nuggets. These boosts have a system in order put names in of teams that are supposed to be good. This is a road back-to-back for Denver in Utah. This is as bad as the schedule gets now. This should pay +386. Pass.

NBA
GSW -9
There are a few teams so bad they need an extra adjustment in the model. Of course, those teams are not going to lose every game by 20+ points, even if it feels like it. This is the highest rated in the model and I like it as well.

Let’s Get Weird

NBA Record 2021-2022
NBA Record 2-3 40%
Hoops Parlay Record   0-1 -100
Hoops Odds Boosts 2-1 +175
Hoops Player Props 0-0
NBA Model Highest Rated 4-3 57.14%
NBA Model 24-15 61.53%

As we stated last year, if we fail to post our plays we will not be counting them in our record. I mentioned it on the football post, but Saturday I sent a tweet with our plays, but it failed and were stuck in my drafts. It never went through. Oh well, just moving on. Friday and Sunday the computer model went 12-3 and the highest rated went 3-0. That is a great start early in the year. As always, good, bad, no matter what the record will be at the end of every post.

This Monday night football game is very strange. Who knows what to expect from Jameis on the road in weather. Of course, the sites have boosts related to overs and TD’s even though the total is very low at 41.5. I am sure people will mention what happened on Sunday night, but no thank you.

I hope you noticed we combined posts for today to make it easier to find everything in one place!

NBA Model Plays
IND +2
CHA +1
MIA -13
TOR +2
ATL -11.5
BRK -7
NOP +5.5
DEN -10 (Highest Rated in Model)
LAC -3


*If two games or more reach a certain level, we will label them highest rated in model. The record at bottom will be updated to note we may have more than one top play per day from the computer model.

Basketball Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
$20 risk free same game parlay (FD)
There is an opt in required, but always do this when it is risk free.

$25 risk free same game parlay (DK)
Again, you have to do these things and get a free bet if it loses.

Bucks and Bulls to win +220 (FD)
The Bucks are a small favorite and will be missing two starters. The Bulls are also a small favorite on the road as well. This parlay should pay +213. Umm, such a small boost not worth playing.

MIL/BRK/ATL to all win +200 (Barstool)
Again if the Bucks were not included, I would be more inclined here. I think the sites are sure people do not follow injuries and who is out for NBA boosts. This should pay +168, but I cannot do it with the Bucks missing two starters. Pass.

IND/ATL/CHI to all win +360 (Fox)
Well, this is new as the Pacers play the Bucks and are two point dogs. This should pay +337. Gee, I wonder why the sites are using Chicago and the Bucks multiple times. This is not large enough to play, plus who wants to use such small spreads when making a parlay. When this comes up, if you liked it before seeing the boost then proceed. However, if you are only betting this because it is a boost, do not do that.

Jaylen Brown and KD 1+ dunk +200 (Fox)
Please stop with the dunk props. Pass.

NBA

Let’s Get Weird

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

Computer Model Plays
Platinum


Premium


Regular Plays
NO -4.5

Football Odds Boost You Should Consider Betting

Fan Duel
$10 Same Game Parlay. If it loses, you are refunded in site credit. Always, take the risk free stuff.

Saints to win and over 43.5 points +250
The total keeps coming down, yet this boosts is locked. Easy Pass.

Kamara to score 2+ TD’s +300
This game has a 41.5 point total. I will say this is a boost as Kamara is +240 to score 2+ TD’s most places. I am passing because I do not trust this Saints offense on the road in the rain.

Draft Kings
$25 Same Game Parlay is back! That means if you lose it is refunded as a $25 bet.

Barstool Sportsbook
Reminder, never bet with barstool (Their employee boosts) and do not bet timed boosts for a quarter or half and needing to score.

NO to win and over 40 points +170
Okay, this is more in line with something you can play. Barstool, who knew! This should pay +148 or so around the industry. This gives you a slight break on the already decreasing total and just asks the Saints to win. You can play this if you want, but I am staying away. You know why.

Fox Bet
Kamara and DK to score a TD +300
This pays +313 on Fan Duel. Easy Pass.

NO -3.5 and over 44.5 points +300
The total is already 41.5, easy pass.

NFL

College Football

Let’s Get Weird

NFL Computer Model
Overall 47-60 43.92%
Platinum 3-7 30%
Premium 12-12 50%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 15-19 44.11%

Our Plays
NFL
Overall 16-8 66.66%
NFL Odds Boosts 10-25 -1215
NFL Teasers and Parlays 1-1 +027

College Football
Overall 7-1 87.5%
College Odds Boosts 2-0 +200

Combined
Overall 23-9 71.87%
Odds Boosts 12-26 -1215
Teasers and Parlays 1-1 +027

NBA Record 2021-2022
NBA Record 2-3 40%
Hoops Parlay Record   0-1 -100
Hoops Odds Boosts 2-1 +175
Hoops Player Props 0-0
NBA Model Highest Rated 4-2 66.66%
NBA Model 19-11 63.33%

Had a Tweet written with the NBA model plays, pushed send, it never went through. Oh well.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

Computer Model Plays
Platinum
None

Premium
CAR -3
IND +4.5

Regular Plays
GB -8.5
TEN +5.5
MIA +2.5
NE -7
CIN +6.5
PHI +3
LAR -15
ARZ -18.5
CHI +12.5
NO -4.5

Football Odds Boost You Should Consider Betting

Fan Duel
$10 Same Game Parlay. If it loses, you are refunded in site credit. Always, take the risk free stuff.

Mahome to throw for 350+ and the Chiefs to win +400
Look, if you think this game is a shootout and you like the Chiefs, you can fire here. The Chiefs feels like a trap. I am out.

Joe B 2+ TD passes +100
If I am on the Bengal’s, I am in on this.

Pat’s super boost
I am sorry, I like some of the games the other way, plus I do not want to mess with the big spreads. I did almost take the Texans at one point as mentioned on Pod with Jeff Collins. I backed off. I am chicken haha.

Draft Kings
$25 Same Game Parlay is back! That means if you lose it is refunded as a $25 bet.

Henry 150+ Rushing Yards +280
I am going to pass on this and suggest you parlay this with the Titans on another site if you want to play it. If he does that well, they will cover, or perhaps win. Pass on the boosts.

Smith and Ruggs to combine for 150+ Receiving Yards +260
Their numbers are set to 57.5 and 52.5 respectively. If you parlay them to both go over it pays +251. Why add in extra yardage for this “boost.” Pass.

Barstool Sportsbook
Reminder, never bet with barstool (Their employee boosts) and do not bet timed boosts for a quarter or half and needing to score.

Fox Bet
GB/NE/CAR to all win +200
This should pay +174. Two of these are large favorites and one is small road favorite. I am scared of the Panthers it seems almost too easy. You can fire on this, but I am passing.

Henry/Adams/Tyreek to all score +400
This should pay +205. This is a very solid boost. It features two key guys in a game with a massive total. I am in. The boost is too large for me to pass up. I hope that your max bet is larger than mine.


Mahomes and Rodgers 3+ passing TD’s each +400
Rodgers is -250 to throw over 1.5 TD’s.
Mahomes is -140 to throw over 2.5 TD’s.
If you parlay these two is should pay roughly +200 or so. This is an odd one because the Packers are large favorites and could easily end up running the ball and ton and not needing to keep throwing. I am passing here.

Stafford and Kyler 250+ Passing Yards each +100
Look, these two games could blowout easily and they may run it a ton. I am very scared of both of them not needing to throw. Pass.


LAR/TB/PHI to all win +200
This is strange. This parlay should pay around +188. This is basically the Eagles money line boosted up. If I am going to play the Eagles, then yes, you should bet this. I am not there yet. Update, I am there.

Hopkins and Cupp to both score a TD +200
Do we want to wager on large favorites needing to throw and both of these players to score? Mehhh, pass for me.

NFL
MIA +2.5
Atlanta should not be laying points on the road to anyone.

SF -4
Rain, wind and the Niners running it a ton. I like it.

CIN +6.5
Defense is better than we think. I believe this is a field goal game.

College Football
Pitt -3
I will continue to ride the Panthers.

Let’s Get Weird
GB/NE/LAR/TB/ARZ ML Parlay +127 (Fox)
Yes, this is a 5 team parlay paying only +127. I will be taking my chances here. Who screws this up? The Patriots I suppose. I am planning to use the Pats for my survivor pick as well, so just bring the pain.

NFL Computer Model
Overall 41-54 43.15%
Platinum 3-7 30%
Premium 11-11 50%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 14-18 43.75%

Our Plays
NFL
Overall 14-7 66.66%
NFL Odds Boosts 9-23 -1115
NFL Teasers and Parlays 0-1 -100

College Football
Overall 6-1 85.71%
College Odds Boosts 2-0 +200

Combined
Overall 20-8 71.42%
Odds Boosts 11-23 -915
Teasers and Parlays 0-1 -100

This is such a weird week. There are several massive favorites. It is rare to have one team giving more than 14+ in a season, let alone two in one week! Last night Denver +3.5 comes through in some contest, but Denver getting any other number is a loser. This is such a small week due to byes, and with the large spreads, picking games for contests is not going to be easy. I am extremely happy to have one already in my pocket with Broncos +3.5.

Normally, at this point in the week I have already made some wagers. This week, I have only made one and that is the Pitt Panthers -3. Pitt is really good and keeps scoring. It feels like the odds makers know Pitt’s history and are waiting for the bottom to fall out. I will undoubtedly make some more bets this weekend and as always will update and repost this blog when more odds boosts are added.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

Computer Model Plays
Platinum
None

Premium
CAR -3
IND +4.5

Regular Plays
GB -8.5
TEN +5.5
MIA +2.5
NE -7
CIN +6.5
PHI +3
LAR -15
ARZ -18.5
CHI +12.5
NO -4.5

Football Odds Boost You Should Consider Betting

Fan Duel
$10 Same Game Parlay. If it loses, you are refunded in site credit. Always, take the risk free stuff.

Draft Kings
$25 Same Game Parlay is back! That means if you lose it is refunded as a $25 bet.

5+ Leg College Parlay 25% Boost
This would be better if the largest money line involved was not -500.

Barstool Sportsbook
Reminder, never bet with barstool (Their employee boosts) and do not bet timed boosts for a quarter or half and needing to score.

Fox Bet
GB/NE/CAR to all win +200
This should pay +174. Two of these are large favorites and one is small road favorite. I am scared of the Panthers it seems almost too easy. You can fire on this, but I am passing.

Henry/Adams/Tyreek to all score +400
This should pay +205. This is a very solid boost. It features two key guys in a game with a massive total. I am in. The boost is too large for me to pass up. I hope that your max bet is larger than mine.


Mahomes and Rodgers 3+ passing TD’s each +400
Rodgers is -250 to throw over 1.5 TD’s.
Mahomes is -140 to throw over 2.5 TD’s.
If you parlay these two is should pay roughly +200 or so. This is an odd one because the Packers are large favorites and could easily end up running the ball and ton and not needing to keep throwing. I am passing here.

Stafford and Kyler 250+ Passing Yards each +100
Look, these two games could blowout easily and they may run it a ton. I am very scared of both of them not needing to throw. Pass.


LAR/TB/PHI to all win +200
This is strange. This parlay should pay around +188. This is basically the Eagles money line boosted up. If I am going to play the Eagles, then yes, you should bet this. I am not there yet.

Hopkins and Cupp to both score a TD +200
Do we want to wager on large favorites needing to throw and both of these players to score? Mehhh, pass for me.

NFL

College Football
Pitt -3
I will continue to ride the Panthers.

Let’s Get Weird
GB/NE/LAR/TB/ARZ ML Parlay +127 (Fox)
Yes, this is a 5 team parlay paying only +127. I will be taking my chances here. Who screws this up? The Patriots I suppose. I am planning to use the Pats for my survivor pick as well, so just bring the pain.

NFL Computer Model
Overall 41-54 43.15%
Platinum 3-7 30%
Premium 11-11 50%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 14-18 43.75%

Our Plays
NFL
Overall 14-7 66.66%
NFL Odds Boosts 9-23 -1115
NFL Teasers and Parlays 0-1 -100

College Football
Overall 6-1 85.71%
College Odds Boosts 2-0 +200 Combined
Overall 20-8 71.42%
Odds Boosts 11-23 -915
Teasers and Parlays 0-1 -100

How did the Warriors not cover last night? It happens sometimes. What also happens is what occurred with the Bucks and Heat. Early in the day, the Bucks were -2.5 and then two starters were ruled out. The line shifted to Heat -2.5. Now, I realize the computer model when run accounted for those guys starting. I would hope you as a smart bettor paying attention to news would realize to avoid the situation now, or go the other way. Still, we let the pick stand because at the time of publication that was the situation. Undoubtedly, throughout this entire season the line will move for and against us in similar situations plenty of times.

NBA Model Plays
NYK -7
CHA -3
TOR +6.5
HOU -2
NOP +7
DEN -7
LAL -1
UTA -5.5 (Highest Rated in Model)
IND +1.5

*If two games or more reach a certain level, we will label them highest rated in model. The record at bottom will be updated to note we may have more than one top play per day from the computer model.

Basketball Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
$20 risk free same game parlay (FD)
There is an opt in required, but always do this when it is risk free.

$25 risk free same game parlay (DK)
Again, you have to do these things and get a free bet if it loses.

Joe Harris and Seth Curry to combine for 8+ made 3’s +300 (DK)
Due to Embiid’s injury, nothing is posted for this game at the moment.

Booker to score 30+ +195 (DK)
Booker’s point prop is set to 25.5.
Booker is +200 to score 30+ on Fan Duel. As you know when a better price is elsewhere, easy pass on the “boost.”

CAVS/CELTS/BULLS to all win +333 (Fox)
This parlay should pay +315. Look, we are right back to the books trying to throw in a small dog in these parlay boosts. The Cavs may be bad this year and I do not want to go against the Hornets often as they are going to surprise some people. This is barely a boost and an easy pass.


Randle and LaVine 1+ dunk each +350 (Fox)
Why? These stupid dunk props.

NBA
LAL -1
The Lakers would have beaten the Suns in the playoffs if everyone was healthy. The Lakers will not start 0-2 and this is a great bounce back spot against the Suns. Can you tell I am out on the Suns this year?

Let’s Get Weird
It’s time to start losing some random NBA money line parlays.
NYK/BOS/CHI/DEN ML Parlay +234
Orlando may be the worst team in the league. Boston lost a tough game, but will be better than Toronto. The Bulls may actually be good. The Nuggets are very good.

NBA Record 2021-2022
NBA Record 2-2 50%
Hoops Parlay Record   0-0
Hoops Odds Boosts 2-1 +175
Hoops Player Props 0-0
NBA Model Highest Rated 1-2 33.33%
NBA Model 7-8 46.66%

Denver is +3.5 in the Draft Kings Picks contest and man that looks tasty as this line continues to drop. With NBA, back some days we will be posting two separate blogs, one for each sport.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

Computer Model Plays
Platinum


Premium


Regular Plays
DEN +2

Football Odds Boost You Should Consider Betting

Fan Duel
$10 Same Game Parlay. If it loses, you are refunded in site credit. Always, take the risk free stuff.

Both teams to score 2+ TD’s and both teams to score 2+ FG’s +500
Ummmmm. This game may be very ugly. This is an easy pass. The total is 40.5! Why would you be betting any boosts that require scoring?

Draft Kings
$25 Same Game Parlay is back! That means if you lose it is refunded as a $25 bet.

Courtland Sutton to score a TD in first half +550
I do not bet timed boosts and this game has a total of 40.5 Pass.
Fox Bet has this same exact boost at +350. LOL.

Myles Garett 2+ sacks +275
Garrett has 1+ sack in one game this season. I do not see this being a game that the Broncos have to throw it a ton. Less throws means less sack opportunities. Pass for me.


Broncos to record 3+ sacks +110
The Broncos have 3+ sacks in three of six games this season. The browns could be without both tackles and you know about the running back and quarterback situation. I am in on this. I guess you can tell who I am thinking wins tonight.

5+ Leg College Parlay 25% Boost
This would be better if the largest money line involved was not -500.

Barstool Sportsbook
Reminder, never bet with barstool (Their employee boosts) and do not bet timed boosts for a quarter or half and needing to score.

Denver to win and over 35 points +200
This should pay +162. I want to play this, I really do, but I could see a low scoring game here. Two of Denver’s games this year have gone under 35 total points and one landed on 36. This is a very fair price and really, your only concern is the Cleveland offense does nothing. I am skeptical, but in.

Fox Bet
Browns to score in every quarter +300
Why? They have no QB, no RB and the total is 40.5 Pass.

Teddy B 200+ Passing Yards/2+ Passing TD’s and Broncos to win +500
Teddy B’s passing prop is set to 229.5, which is hilarious.
Teddy B to throw over 1.5 TD’s pays +126.
I thought this might be pretty good, but this should actually pay +532. I am going to pass here as you can find a better number elsewhere.

NFL

College Football
Pitt -3
I will continue to ride the Panthers.

Let’s Get Weird
Nothing at this time.

NFL Computer Model
Overall 41-53 43.61%
Platinum 3-7 30%
Premium 11-11 50%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 14-18 43.75%

Our Plays
NFL
Overall 14-7 66.66%
NFL Odds Boosts 9-21 -915
NFL Teasers and Parlays 0-1 -100

College Football
Overall 6-1 85.71%
College Odds Boosts 2-0 +200

Combined
Overall 20-8 71.42%
Odds Boosts 11-21 -715
Teasers and Parlays 0-1 -100

Two days in and not a bad start. We are 2-0 in boosts we have recommended and 2-1 in wagers. The computer model is in the positive, but obviously, it is very early on. Last year we tracked well over 1,000 games and will easily surpass that this year.

NBA Model Plays
DAL +2.5 (Highest Rated in Model)
MIL -2.5
GSW -3.5

*If two games or more reach a certain level, we will label them highest rated in model. The record at bottom will be updated to note we may have more than one top play per day from the computer model.

Basketball Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
$20 risk free same game parlay (FD)
There is an opt in required, but always do this when it is risk free.

$25 risk free same game parlay (DK)
Again, you have to do these things and get a free bet if it loses.

Tyler Herro to score 20+ Points +200 (DK)
Herro’s prop is set to 14.5 and the under is slightly juiced. I am passing here as he really took a step back last season. I need to see it. Pass.

PG to score 30+ +185 (DK)
PG’s point prop is set to 25.5.
PG to score 30+ on Fan Duel pays +196. Easy pass on this “boost.”

Luka and Trae to combine for 60+ Points +175 (DK)
Luka’s prop is set to 29.5 and the under is slightly juiced.
Trae’s point prop is set to 26.5.
While this is combined, you can parlay them to both score 30+ for +369 on FD. Per usual, I would like to wager on them without the combo. Pass.

Fox Bet offers a dunk boost every day because they hate me. Pass.

Luka/Giannis/Steph 30+ each +550 (Fox)
All three of them have a prop in the range of 30 points. Only Steph comes in above 30 with a player prop of 33.5. Giannis is at 28.5 and Luka is 29.5. This parlay should pay +475. We need all three games to be competitive, but Steph is going to bounce back after his terrible shooting game against the Lakers. This is a boost and everyone’s number is very fair. I am in.

ATL/MIL/LAC to all win +600 (Fox)
This parlay pays +608 on FD. Easy pass with a better price elsewhere.

NBA
GSW -3.5
I think the Warriors are going to be very good.

Let’s Get Weird
Nothing at this time.

NBA Record 2021-2022
NBA Record 2-1 66.66%
Hoops Parlay Record   0-0
Hoops Odds Boosts 2-0 +275
Hoops Player Props 0-0
NBA Model Highest Rated 1-1 50%
NBA Model 7-5 58.33%

We have a full 11-game slate tonight! I love it. I cannot wait to play some DFS and fire off some bets.

NBA Model Plays
CHA -1
CHI -5
WAS +3
NYK -2.5
CLE +7.5
PHI -4
HOU +6.5 (Highest Rated in Model)
ORL +6.5
UTA -12.5
POR -5
DEN +6.5 (Highest Rated in Model)

*if two games or more reach a certain level, we will label them highest rated in model. The record at bottom will be updated to note we may have more than one top play per day from the computer model.

Basketball Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
$20 risk free same game parlay (FD)
There is an opt in required, but always do this when it is risk free.

Knicks and Raptors to both win +240 (FD)
This should pay +194. Both of these teams are short favorites at home. I mean, I have no idea what the new look Raptors will be. The Celtics may have some Covid issues, but at this time, I am going to wait and see here. Pass.

$25 risk free same game parlay (DK)
Again, you have to do these things and get a free bet if it loses.

Game of the Week Wednesday (DK)
Opt in and place a bet of $50+ on Suns/Nuggets. For every point over 200 scored in the game, you get a free bet. If 234 points are scored, you get a $34 free bet.
The total in this game opened at 222.5, but now sits at 224. While the Suns are a 6.5-point favorite.
The Suns in the playoffs destroyed the Nuggets only a few months ago. The Nuggets are not healthy yet as Jamal Murray is still out. The Suns were very tough at home last year. This is a tough spot, but because of the boost you are getting almost half off a wager. Oddly, the Nuggets are the second highest rated team in the model. Reluctantly, I am going to lock in the Nuggets +6.5 with this boost.

There are no other NBA odds boosts posted on DK.

Embiid 1+ dunk and Sixers win +100 (Fox)
Embiid averages 0.81 dunks per game and the Sixers are four-point road favorites. I hate dunk boosts and Embiid has let us down plenty of times. Pass for me.

LaVine and Ja 1+ dunk each +125 (Fox)
Why? I hate dunk boosts. Pass.


Hornets/Bulls/Sixers to all win +375 (Fox)
This should pay +331. The Hornets are tiny one-point favorites. The Bulls and Sixers are slightly larger favorites. Do you really want to play a three-team parlay on opening night with small numbers here? Pass for me. If this paid +430, I would be more likely to come in on this boost.

LaMelo Ball to record a double-double +500 (Fox)
This game has a 223 point total. Ball’s point prop is set to 18.5. Ball’s rebound prop is set to 5.5. Ball’s assist prop is set to 6.5. I was somewhat surprised Ball’s assist prop was so low. Ball is +440 to record 10+ assists. Considering what that pays, it is clear the expectation is he does not get a double-double. I was hoping this would be better than it was, but instead I am passing.

Embiid to score 20+/Maxey to score 10+/Sixers to win +140 (Barstool)
This parlay should pay -104. The Sixers are small four-point road favorites. Embiid’s prop is set to 28.5 points. Maxey’s point prop is set to 14.5. I normally shy away from most Barstool boosts, but this is pretty good. Both players can miss their prop, but the Sixers still need to win. I like this as the Pelicans are in disarray it seems. I am in.

NBA
PHI -4
What am I missing here? The Sixers have moved on from Simmons and one way to get through a distraction is to win. I like Philly tonight.

DEN +6.5
Denver is not completely healthy, but they were playing Austin Rivers 40 minutes a night in the playoffs. The depth is back and they will be more competitive.

Let’s Get Weird
Nothing at this time.

NBA Record 2010-2022
NBA Record 0-1 0%
Hoops Parlay Record
Hoops Odds Boosts 1-0 +135
Hoops Player Props
NBA Model Highest Rated
NBA Model 1-1 50%

Last year was the first year for our brand new NBA model. We feel like we have plenty of data points and have tweaked it where necessary and we our ready for this year. Expect us to post model results daily, with blog posts a majority of the days breaking down all the odds boosts on the major legal sports books. Weekends may be difficult with football still happening, but we will do our best. So how did we finish last season?

NBA Record 81-66 55.10%
NBA Playoff Record 18-11 62.06%
Hoops Parlay Record 45-38 +504
Hoops Odds Boosts 68-128 +1310
Hoops Player Props 4-4 +330
NBA Model Playoff Record 41-41 50%
NBA Model Highest Rated 74-69 51.74%
NBA Model 517-500 50.83%

In terms of our plays we gave out, we did very well. The plays we recommended finished at just over 55%. In the playoffs, we ended up at 62%. We finished positive on parlays, odds boosts and player props for a combined +2144. While the model was just above 50% in total, it was only year one, but we have more than enough data now. We are ready for the long journey that is the NBA season. So please join us. The NFL is one thing and is not as relentless as is the NBA. There are not days off between now and All-Star Break. Read, share, hit us up on Twitter and of course until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

NBA Model Plays
BRK +1.5
GSW +3

Normally, in this section we would mention the highest rated in the model and recommend a wager. However, nothing is that highly rated in the model tonight.

Basketball Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
Nets to win both the first quarter and match +220 (FD)
Match? What is this soccer? As you are aware from football, I do not recommend betting timed boosts. The Nets have no motivation to win the first quarter. Pass.

The King Vs. The Chef (DK)
Here is how this works. Place a $50 money line wager on either team. You then get a $2 free bet for every point the star player for the team you picked scores. If you bet the Lakers, you get LeBron. If you bet the Warriors, you get Curry.
I am looking at this as essentially a free wager.
$50 on the Lakers nets you $31.25.
$50 on the Warriors nets you $70.
LeBron’s player prop for points is set to 23.5 and the under is slightly juiced.
Curry’s player prop is set to 33.5.
If we use 23 points as LeBron’s base number here, if the Lakers lose you would not break even in terms of free bets if LeBron scores at his prop number. The 23 points would net you $46 in free bets for a loss of $4. Conversely, if you take Curry and he finishes with 33 points, again right at his number, you would earn $66 in free bets. As long as Curry scores 25 points you would break even on this entire transaction. The optimal play here is to bet the Warriors money line, with the expectation that even if they lose you would be refunded in the form of free bets via Curry’s offensive output. I am in on a free wager on the Warriors and the Curry side here.

Russ to record a triple double +280 (DK)
Russ is +250 to record a triple-double tonight. This is a very small boost all things considered. This is his first game, with a brand new team and he is undoubtedly the third option. I think Russ may actually thrive here. My main concern is rebounds with both LeBron and Anthony Davis here. Russ’s rebound prop is set to 9.5 and the under is heavily juiced. Frankly, so is his assist prop. You can parlay Russ to go over each prop and score 10+ points on Fan Duel at +277. You can tell where this is going. This is not a boost worth betting, as it is miniscule. Pass.


KD and Harden to combine for 60+ points +160 (DK)
KD’s point prop is set to 29.5.
Harden’s point prop is set to 25.5.
Yes, while this boost is combined, you can parlay the two of them to score 30+ for a much better price of +484. Pass for me. When it is combined it is usually better to bet them separately or parlayed like this.

Giannis and AD 2+ Dunks +125 (Fox)
These dunk boosts kill me. Yes, I can find dunk data, but I hate these.
Giannis averages 2.91 dunks per game.
AD averages 1.5 dunks per game.
See, these are always tricky. You are asking AD to for sure have two dunks, as Giannis should get there. I am passing. I hate having to worry about dunks.


Nets and Lakers to win +225 (Fox)
This parlay pays +229 over on FD. Easy pass on this boosts.


Giannis/Lebron/KD to score 25+ Each +300 (Fox)
KD’s point prop is set to 29.5.
LeBron’s point prop is set to 23.5.
Giannis’s point prop is set to 30.5 and the over is slightly juiced.
This parlay should pay +221. Therefore, this is a boost and two of the players are expected to exceed this number relatively easily. Both KD and Giannis to score 25+ is -430 or higher.
These two teams played four times last season. LeBron scored 19, 19, 22 and 22. The market expects LeBron under 25. The data from last season suggest he should fall under 25 as well. I am passing. If you want to fire, you can though. The reason is that you are almost getting the over on LeBron at +300, provided nothing weird happens in the early game. Like I said, you can fire, but I am passing.

KD and Giannis to each score 30+ +250 (Barstool)
This should pay +187.
KD’s point prop is set to 29.5.
Giannis’s point prop is set to 30.5 and the over is slightly juiced.
This is a fair boost if you want to play it. You are asking both people to hit the over on their prop and if you think that happens then fire this up. I am taking a wait and see approach here with the new look Nets.

NBA
BRK +1.5
Am I the only one who remembers the Nets would have crushed them if James Harden was healthy? The Nets are deep and good and I think despite the ring and banner ceremony, come out of this with a win.

Let’s Get Weird
Nothing at this time.

NBA Record 2020-2021
NBA Record 81-66 55.10%
NBA Playoff Record 18-11 62.06%
Hoops Parlay Record 45-38 +504
Hoops Odds Boosts 68-128 +1310
Hoops Player Props 4-4 +330
NBA Model Playoff Record 41-41 50%
NBA Model Highest Rated 74-69 51.74%
NBA Model 517-500 50.83%

The NBA is back tomorrow!

I know I mentioned this the other day, but the Buffalo Bills continue to break our computer model. The model loves the Bills tonight. Obviously, this is apparent because of the Bills appearing in the platinum section. It does feel like such a public bet though. I mean who is taking the Titans here. I will say this is a game coming off a big win for the Bills. It is almost as if Buffalo won the Super Bowl last week and now has to get up for a game against a bad Titans team on the road. It is an easy let down spot. As the line climbs it feels like a Buffalo wins and does not cover spot to me. I am staying away.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

Computer Model Plays
Platinum
BUFF -5.5

Premium


Regular Plays

Football Odds Boost You Should Consider Betting

Fan Duel
$10 Same Game Parlay. If it loses, you are refunded in site credit. Always, take the risk free stuff.

1+ TD scored in each quarter +160
I do not bet timed boosts per usual.

Henry and Diggs to score 1+ TD +300
This should pay +218 and is a pretty solid boost. The Titans secondary is awful and Henry is -165 for anytime TD. Fine, I am reluctantly jumping on this. I am in. If the Titans get anywhere close you know who is getting the ball.

Draft Kings
$25 Same Game Parlay is back! That means if you lose it is refunded as a $25 bet.

Allen and Henry to combine for 450+ Pass and Rush Yards +350
Allen’s passing prop is set to 289.5.
Allen’s rushing prop is set to 31.5.
Allen’s combination is set to 321 yards.
Henry’s rushing prop is set to 95.5 yards.
It is expected that their total hover around 416.5 yards.
What is difficult here is that if Allen throws for bunch of yards and the Bills score that would not be beneficial for Henry, as teams that fall behind tend to throw more. Yes, it is possible the Titans are the exception. Yet, I am fading this here. If Henry has a monster day, that means Allens and Bills offense is off the field while the Titans are grinding clock. Pass.

First score of game to be a FG +185
Ehhhh, either team to score a touchdown first is favored in this spot. This game has a massive total and the Titans secondary as I mentioned is awful. Pass for me. If you can find a site that gives out firsts scoring play as TD and it pays plus money, bet this boost and that same prop on whatever site that is. Pass on this alone.


Diggs to record a 40+ yard receiving TD +550
This is asking for a lot of things to break correctly. Pass for me.

Barstool Sportsbook
Reminder, never bet with barstool (Their employee boosts) and do not bet timed boosts for a quarter or half and needing to score.

Fox Bet
Allen and Henry to both score a rushing TD +250
Yeah, you can bet anytime TD for both of them parlayed on FD at +262. Easy pass.

The rest of the Fox Bet boosts are timed, or involve AJ Brown. Brown is going to be shadowed by Tre’Davious White. Pass for me.

NFL

College Football

Let’s Get Weird
Nothing at this time.

NFL Computer Model
Overall 41-52 44.08%
Platinum 3-6 33.33%
Premium 11-11 50%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 14-17 45.16%

Our Plays
NFL
Overall 14-7 66.66%
NFL Odds Boosts 8-21 -1215
NFL Teasers and Parlays 0-1 -100

College Football
Overall 6-1 85.71%
College Odds Boosts 2-0 +200

Combined
Overall 20-8 71.42%
Odds Boosts 10-21 -1015
Teasers and Parlays 0-1 -100