We are on to the second third of the season. I know many people think this season has been insane with tons of upsets every week. While that might be true, I think there is some order in this chaos. Home dogs continue to hold value as winning on the road has become difficult, as it previously was before Covid. The lack of crowds and home field advantage, which occurred during the Covid times, have vanished. Winning on the road is hard. I am not here to say that the public is dumb at betting sports, but as soon as you hear someone say this team is going to kill this team, or wow, that line is too small, it normally is a bad sign. We know that does not hold true in all situations, but blindly betting home dogs would make you a profitable player this season.
Every week feels like it gets a little more difficult, but our computer model seems to be more in line with what the lines are as we add new fresher data. I will continue to pick a survivor contest play as one of my contests is down to 21 from almost 500 entrants. That is crazy.
Having said all of that, we are still 22-8 in picks contests and hopeful to keep up this breakneck pace, while hoping others slow down and we can move up the leaderboard. I am in 76th place out of 4000 or so runners in the Draft Kings Contest. I am only four games out of first, so there is a long way to go.
This feels like too many points for the Browns to be getting at +6. Baltimore has struggled to close teams out too. I lean Browns, but do not really like the game.
Are we really going to bet the Falcons again? Seriously? I know the Falcons secondary is decimated. The Bengals should be able to pass all over them, yet, Atlanta will be run it on Cincinnati. God. The Falcons are on my short list, but with some trepidation.
Dallas back home and healthy against the worst secondary in the NFL. I am not playing Detroit that is sure, but pass on this number.
A home dog, against a team that is vastly overrated and struggling? You attack that home dog through the air and the favorite does not have any WR? You do not just give Taylor Heineke +5.5 at home. I am on Washington.
Pass on the Bucs giving Carolina all the points.
I know sharp bettors are all over the Jags. Fool me three times and I am out. I am passing here.
Titans -2.5 seems too easy. The Colts stole a game and are awful. I love the Titans and it feels too simple. I am ready for pain. Tennessee -2.5.
The Raiders should not be touchdown favorites over anyone. I lean Houston, but they are a bad team. Our computer feel the Raiders should be -3, the largest difference of the week. Texans on the short list.
The Jets are a public dog and it seems like everyone is on them. This might be the Admiral Akbar spot of the week. I love the Jets in a tease. Jets are on my short list. Last week I settled on the Bills as my fifth choice in contests, it felt too easy and public, but was the correct side and choice. That may be the case here.
Driving back from Pittsburgh last Sunday night my Dad and I were discussing the spread of this game. As soon as he said Chiefs -2.5, we both laughed and knew we would be on the Niners. I am waiting to see if this gets to +3, but man this is a public trap.
I am just going to keep taking the points when teams have struggled to score. The Chargers should, I repeat, should be able to put up points. Yet, offensive line injuries, Keenan Allen may sit again and for whatever reason it is not clicking. Seattle runs the ball, grinds games down and still are getting a few too many points every single week. I am on Seattle +6.
I want to be on the Steelers. I really do. My fandom is interfering here. I need to stay away. Yet, the number is +7.5 in some contests. Come Sunday if I need a 5th here we go.
I am in on the Pats winning a dreadfully boring game 24-3. Pats -8 on my short list.
Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!
Survivor Pick
Week 7 New England
Week 6 LA Rams (WIN)
Week 5 Jacksonville (Lose)
Week 4 Green Bay (WIN)
Week 3 Cincinnati (WIN)
Week 2 San Francisco (WIN)
Week 1 Baltimore (WIN)
Computer Model
Platinum
Premium
HOU +7
SEA +5.5
SF +2.5
PIT +7
Regular
NO +2.5
ATL +6
DET +7
TEN -2.5
WAS +5
TB -11
NYG +3
CLE +6
NYJ +1
CHI +8
NFL Odds Boosts.
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College Football Odds Boots
CFB
NFL
SEA +6
TEN -2.5
WAS +5.5
2022 NBA Computer Model
Overall 9-5 64.28%
Premium 0-2 0%
Our Plays 0-0
Odds Boost 3-0 +300
Parlays 0-0
2022 NFL Computer Model
Overall 42-50 45.65%
Platinum 1-4 20%
Premium 13-14 48.14%
Recommended Plays 14-18 (Platinum + Premium) 43.75%
2022 Our Plays
NFL
Overall 19-7 73.03%
NFL Props 0-1 0%
NFL Odds Boosts 3-4 -100
NFL Teasers and Parlays 0-3 -300
College Football
Overall 2-2 50%
College Odds Boosts
College Teasers and Parlays
Combined
Overall 21-9 70%
Odds Boosts 3-4 -100
Teasers and Parlays 0-3 -300
Win The Weekends 