It has been a few weeks, I know. We took some time for the Holidays with family to travel and focus on our picks contests. I learned something I already knew along the way.

“Few players recall big pots they have won, strange as it seems, but every player can remember with remarkable accuracy the outstanding tough beats of his career.” – Rounders

Can you be disappointed after winning almost $20K in a picks contest? Yes, of course. Because I should have won more! Like any day when you are playing DFS, if you never looked and saw at the end of the day you won 20X your buy in you would be excited. However, if you monitored throughout the day and saw that the Packers giving up two-garbage time TD’s to the Vikings cost you even more money you might be disappointed. Both of these things happened to me last Sunday.

I ended up going 2-3 in the picks contest and finished tied for seventh out of 4500 entries. That is fantastic. If you told me that in August, I would have taken it without question as a great season. Instead, I have been lamenting my decision to remove the Steelers and play the Bears. It is tough to think about what that difference would have meant, but then I was reminded I did win a game because of that Raiders return a few weeks back.

Overall, this was a successful season. We will be back next year and try to finish even higher. While that contest ended after week 17, some of mine continue. I will tweet out my plays in my remaining picks contests and mention any bets on Twitter. I am awaiting all the news we can get in terms of who is playing and what motivation we may have, because there are a lot of quarterbacks out there who are not good and playing  a major role this weekend.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

Computer Model
Platinum

Premium
JAX -6
HOU +2.5
DET +5.5

Regular
LVR +9.5
BAL +7.5
TB +4
BUF -7
CHI +7
MIA +1
CAR +3.5
CLE +2.5
LAC +2.5
NYG +14
ARZ +14
SEA -6.5
DAL -7.5

NFL Odds Boosts.

NFL

2022 NFL Computer Model
Overall 118-131 47.38%
Platinum 3-5 37.5%
Premium 20-30 40%
Recommended Plays 23-35 (Platinum + Premium) 47.91%

2022 Our Plays
NFL
Overall 55-30 64.70%
NFL Props 0-1 0%
NFL Odds Boosts 9-7 +610
NFL Teasers and Parlays 1-6 -470

Combined
Overall 57-32 64.04%
Odds Boosts 8-7 +330
Teasers and Parlays 1-6 -470

It has been a few weeks, I know. We took some time for the Holidays with family to travel and focus on our picks contests. I learned something I already knew along the way.

“Few players recall big pots they have won, strange as it seems, but every player can remember with remarkable accuracy the outstanding tough beats of his career.” – Rounders

Can you be disappointed after winning almost $20K in a picks contest? Yes, of course. Because I should have won more! Like any day when you are playing DFS, if you never looked and saw at the end of the day you won 20X your buy in you would be excited. However, if you monitored throughout the day and saw that the Packers giving up two-garbage time TD’s to the Vikings cost you even more money you might be disappointed. Both of these things happened to me last Sunday.

I ended up going 2-3 in the picks contest and finished tied for seventh out of 4500 entries. That is fantastic. If you told me that in August, I would have taken it without question as a great season. Instead, I have been lamenting my decision to remove the Steelers and play the Bears. It is tough to think about what that difference would have meant, but then I was reminded I did win a game because of that Raiders return a few weeks back.

Overall, this was a successful season. We will be back next year and try to finish even higher. While that contest ended after week 17, some of mine continue. I will tweet out my plays in my remaining picks contests and mention any bets on Twitter. I am awaiting all the news we can get in terms of who is playing and what motivation we may have, because there are a lot of quarterbacks out there who are not good and playing  a major role this weekend.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

Computer Model
Platinum

Premium
JAX -6
HOU +2.5
DET +5.5

Regular
LVR +9.5
BAL +7.5
TB +4
BUF -7
CHI +7
MIA +1
CAR +3.5
CLE +2.5
LAC +2.5
NYG +14
ARZ +14
SEA -6.5
DAL -7.5

NFL Odds Boosts.

NFL

2022 NFL Computer Model
Overall 118-131 47.38%
Platinum 3-5 37.5%
Premium 20-30 40%
Recommended Plays 23-35 (Platinum + Premium) 47.91%

2022 Our Plays
NFL
Overall 55-30 64.70%
NFL Props 0-1 0%
NFL Odds Boosts 9-7 +610
NFL Teasers and Parlays 1-6 -470

Combined
Overall 57-32 64.04%
Odds Boosts 8-7 +330
Teasers and Parlays 1-6 -470

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

Computer Model

Premium



Regular
POR +1.5
PHI -5
NYK +3.5
BRO -4.5
CHA +10.5
DET +1.5
OKC -1.5
CLE +6
LAC +3.5
MIA -1.5
LAL +2

NBA Odds Boosts
At this point, just opt into everything on the DK and FD tabs every single day!

NBA

2022 NBA Computer Model
Overall 170-171 49.85%
Premium 7-13 35%
Our Plays 3-4 42.85%
Props 2-1 +120
Odds Boost 9-4 +800
Parlays 0-4 -400

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

Computer Model

Premium



Regular
MEM -6
BOS -2
HOU +6
LAC +5.5

NBA Odds Boosts
At this point, just opt into everything on the DK and FD tabs every single day!

NBA

2022 NBA Computer Model
Overall 168-169 49.85%
Premium 7-13 35%
Our Plays 3-4 42.85%
Props 2-1 +120
Odds Boost 9-4 +800
Parlays 0-4 -400

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

Computer Model
Premium



Regular
PHO +5.5
IND +6.5
OKC +1
MEM -7.5
SAS +9.5
MIL +4.5
BRK -5
POR -1.5
HOU +7
SAC -1
LAL +7
GSW -6.5

NBA Odds Boosts
At this point, just opt into everything on the DK and FD tabs every single day!

NBA No Sweat Bet (DK)
$10 Max
I mean, you have to use this. I always fire some random 8-10 team parlay and try to win a large amount.

NBA

2022 NBA Computer Model
Overall 162-163 49.84%
Premium 7-13 35%
Our Plays 3-4 42.85%
Props 2-1 +120
Odds Boost 9-4 +800
Parlays 0-4 -400

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

Computer Model

Premium



Regular
WAS +7.5
OKC +8.5
SAC +2.5

NBA Odds Boosts
At this point, just opt into everything on the DK and FD tabs every single day!

NBA

2022 NBA Computer Model
Overall 160-162 49.68%
Premium 7-13 35%
Our Plays 3-4 42.85%
Props 2-1 +120
Odds Boost 9-4 +800
Parlays 0-4 -400

We have a solid boost over on Fan Duel!

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

Computer Model

Premium



Regular
UTA -2.5
GSW +6
CHI +4
PHO -7
MEM -1.5

NBA Odds Boosts
At this point, just opt into everything on the DK and FD tabs every single day!

Ja and Poole to score 25+ points +150 (FD)
Ja’s prop is 28.5 and the over is juiced. Poole’s prop is set to 25.5 and the over is juiced. This should pay +118 or so, but both guys are expected near this number. Just like last night, I fully expect one to get there for sure. I am in on needing Poole to lead the way here.

NBA

2022 NBA Computer Model
Overall 158-159 49.84%
Premium 7-13 35%
Our Plays 3-4 42.85%
Props 2-1 +120
Odds Boost 8-4 +650
Parlays 0-4 -400

I back off the Bears late and swapped in Green Bay -6.5. Sigh. I wish I had the 4-1 locked up, but instead, we have sweat out tonight. At least the real line has jumped to 7.5, so I am happy sitting with the -6.5.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

Computer Model
Platinum

Premium
LAR +7

Regular

NFL Odds Boosts.
Rodgers 200+
Jones 50+ Rushing
Packers to win +280
This should pay +192.
I am on the Packers and I think they play very well here. I am in!

NFL

2022 NFL Computer Model
Overall 106-111 48.84%
Platinum 3-5 37.5%
Premium 20-26 43.47%
Recommended Plays 23-31 (Platinum + Premium) 42.59%

2022 Our Plays
NFL
Overall 51-23 68.91%
NFL Props 0-1 0%
NFL Odds Boosts 7-7 +050
NFL Teasers and Parlays 1-6 -470

College Football
Overall 2-2 50%
College Odds Boosts
College Teasers and Parlays

Combined
Overall 53-25 67.94%
Odds Boosts 7-6 +150
Teasers and Parlays 1-6 -470

We have a solid boost over on Fan Duel!

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

Computer Model

Premium



Regular
CLE -6.5
TOR +6.5
ORL +7
MIN +5
POR -7
NOP +1
SAS +5
LAL +10
SAC -10

NBA Odds Boosts
At this point, just opt into everything on the DK and FD tabs every single day!

Giannis and Zion to each score 25+ +150 (FD)
Giannis’s prop is set to 31.5
Zion’s prop is set to 25.5 and the over is juiced.
This should pay roughly +105ish. I am in. Zion has been playing insanely well and this will be a competitive game.

NBA

2022 NBA Computer Model
Overall 153-155 49.67%
Premium 7-13 35%
Our Plays 3-4 42.85%
Props 2-1 +120
Odds Boost 8-3 +750
Parlays 0-4 -400

I am four games out of first in my large field picks contests with four weeks left to play. We can do this!

In terms of this week, we have a full slate.

I know some professionals are on the Colts and have driven down the line. I have the Colts on my short list, but I cannot get over the Steelers moving the ball easily and running on Indy a few weeks ago. If a bad offense can do that, I wonder what a real offense might do.

The Browns have to be the correct side here right. Right? I hate this game. I lean Cleveland, as Watson just has to play better than he has.

There is no chance I am taking the Dolphins in Buffalo with massive amounts of snow on the horizon. This might be very square of me, but I lean Buffalo.

A rookie QB on the road against a solid Saints defense. Wait, he is making his first
start. Uh oh. Why am I interested in the Falcons in this spot? Nope. I am out.

I was all set to play the Jets this week with Mike White. Now that it is Zach Wilson, I am out.

All right, here is me breaking my own rules. I never like laying more than a touchdown on the road. Yet, I love the Chiefs this week. Houston is ruling even more starters out. I understand what happened last week, but that was their biggest remaining game they cared about. Kansas City was up 20+ in Denver before some turnovers made it become a game. I am shocked I am doing this, but I like KC -13.5.

The Eagles have a huge game that will determine the NFC East and the number one seed in the NFC, next week. This week they are massive road favorites against the Bears in Chicago. I want to play the Bears so badly. The defense being injured and frankly terribly is giving me pause. I lean Chicago +9, but I am waiting.

I said it several months ago, unless Kenny is the QB I am not putting one dollar on the Steelers. I lean Carolina.

I said it above and it applies here. The Cowboys have a look ahead spot with the Eagles game looming next week. Micah Parsons is already talking about Philadelphia. This is a perfect spot for a home dog that is playing very well offensively, to hang around and maybe steal a game. I am on the Jags +4.5.

I am waiting to see who is playing QB in this game, but Arizona and Denver can be fired into the sun. Pass.

I rarely get the Raiders correct and I kind of like them this week, but ugh. The Patriots may miss some of their offensive weapons and they are not exactly very good. Pass on this game as well. I have to pick five somehow, eventually.

Maybe I am projecting a little too much into the Chargers health. However, this team is getting better at the right time. They schemed against the Dolphins and held down Miami. It feels like they should be able to do that against the fading Titans. The Chargers are going to throw all over Tennessee. It could be foolish to lean too far into the Chargers resurgence, but I think they are ascending as a post-hype sleeper. I am on the Chargers -3 this weekend.

I am just staying away from Tampa Bay, even though they suck. The Bengal’s should have no problems, but it feels too easy. This is the public Admiral Akbar game of the week. Pass for me.

The Sunday night game features a public dog in the Giants. I am sorry it is over for them and I am not wasting another dollar on this team. Pass on this game.

If the Packers following a bye week do not beat up on this Rams team, I would be surprised. Our model has this as -3, even with the QB issues. Pass for me.

Here we are and I have three teams I like. Picking the other two are certainly going to be interesting.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

Computer Model
Platinum
BAL +3

Premium
ATL +4
LAR +7

Regular
SF -3.5
IND +4
BUF -7.5
PHI -9
NYJ PK
CAR -2.5
DAL -4.5
HOU +14
NE -1
TEN +3
CIN -3.5
NYG +4.5
ARZ +3

NFL Odds Boosts.

NFL

2022 NFL Computer Model
Overall 101-104 49.26%
Platinum 3-4 42.85%
Premium 19-26 42.22%
Recommended Plays 22-30 (Platinum + Premium) 42.30%

2022 Our Plays
NFL
Overall 48-22 68.57%
NFL Props 0-1 0%
NFL Odds Boosts 7-7 +050
NFL Teasers and Parlays 1-6 -470

College Football
Overall 2-2 50%
College Odds Boosts
College Teasers and Parlays

Combined
Overall 50-24 67.56%
Odds Boosts 7-6 +150
Teasers and Parlays 1-6 -470