I already miss the NFL regular season. There is nothing like Sunday at 1 PM every week when Redzone counts down and your team is about to play. It truly is the best. If that is the main course, the playoffs are dessert. It is a little smaller than what we just had, but can be as good if not better at times.
I think part of the fun of the playoffs is trying to guess exactly where I think the line will fall. I went to the Steelers week 18 game and on the way home sent the following message.
I am sure you can tell what side I am betting. I assumed it was going to be Skylar Thompson in Buffalo. I projected the line to be much higher than where it opened. I immediately bet Buffalo -9.5. Of course, having some, CLV (closing line value) does not guarantee a win, but I like my wager and number I have locked in. As you guessed it, I am on Buffalo all the way up to -13.5. I think we watched a similar version of this game last year and we were all over the Bills against the Pats in the playoffs.
I think the Niners are good and could easily end up in the Super Bowl. Yet, I am hesitant to lay the points here. Seattle is bad and does not belong, but the weather and lowish total give me pause. I bet the Niners in this same spot I think in week two. The Niners won by 20. I have been fading Seattle for weeks, but am considering jumping back on them. Yet, I cannot. Look, if Seattle could not win that Thursday night game, without Deebo, and a rookie making his first road start in a difficult place, why should I think they could compete here? I know the history of the Niners under this regime as large favorites is not great. I am going to stay away.
The Saturday night game has caused me to go back and forth more than any other game. If the Chargers are healthy and Mike Williams is part of that equation, I like them. On the other side, we have a home playoff dog that no one likes. Leaning Chargers -2.5, but will revisit Saturday.
Daniel Jones on the road in the playoffs, what could possibly go wrong? I am taking the better coach and better defense in this spot. I think this will be a one-possession game. Kirk Cousins is bad against pressure and the Giants will be bringing pressure. Imagine telling yourself in August you would put real dollars on Daniel Jones on the road in round one of the playoffs. Yet, here we are. I will take the Giants +3.
I am going to assume Tyler Huntley plays. Yes, he is not great. However, the Bengals have taken a plethora of injuries the last six weeks and will have key players out. At the same time the Ravens defense has been playing at an elite level. This number is just too large. I think Bengals win a close one. I have not done it yet, but am trending toward taking the Ravens +9.5. I just want some Huntley confirmation first.
Home dog. Check.
Better QB. Check.
Better defense. Check.
Better coach. Ummm, push.
Quietly, the Dallas secondary has been beaten up by injuries. Tampa Bay’s defense is the healthiest it has been since maybe August. If the Bucs throw it early and often, they are going to win. Dak is a lock to throw at least one pick, since he has his last seven games. This is going to be a fun game and I am on Tampa Bay +2.5.
There you go. I picked four of the six games ATS and have already bet them. I will post where I land in the other games this weekend.
Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!
Computer Model
Platinum
Premium
JAX +2.5
NYG +3
BAL +9.5 (assumes Huntley)
Regular
SEA +9.5
MIA +13.5
DAL -2.5
NFL Odds Boosts.
Risk Free $10 Saturday NFL Bet (DK)
Here is what I am doing with my SGP.
CMC TD
Kittle TD
Mitchell TD
SF ML
Geno to throw one INT
+2300
NFL
BUFF -9.5
TB +2.5
NYG +3
BAL +9.5
2022 NFL Computer Model
Overall 124-141 46.79%
Platinum 3-5 37.5%
Premium 22-31 41.50%
Recommended Plays 25-36 (Platinum + Premium) 40.98%
2022 Our Plays
NFL
Overall 60-30 66.66%
NFL Props 0-1 0%
NFL Odds Boosts 9-7 +610
NFL Teasers and Parlays 1-6 -470
Combined
Overall 62-32 65.95%
Odds Boosts 8-7 +330
Teasers and Parlays 1-6 -470
