*Warning this post is dark and full of potential spoilers based on betting odds

There are only two episodes left of Game of Thrones. We have had the highest of highs, thanks Arya, and some strange low points like last week’s coffee cup fiasco. I am not going to critically look back at last week’s episode and some of the mistakes the characters (Writers) made that seemed silly or nonsensical. They did lead to some great memes though.

I also think we got some hints about Arya killing one of the main women left in this story.

Although Arya killing Danny could be a popular theory, it’s not the one I believe will actually happen. Arya killing Cersai (She has Green eyes!) while wearing a Jaime or Tyrion face could help fulfill the prophecy of her death and also allow this meme and the words of the red witch to come true.

Last week I gave my theory for how it is all going to play out. Some of it is now off the table, but a majority of it is in play. While you can read it all here, this is an excerpt:

“The scenario I see playing out in the final three episodes goes something like this. The big battle happens in episode five, in this episode we lose lots of people, including Danny and her dragon. We get the Hound and the Mountain battle and the Hound wins. After Danny’s death, our group takes the Iron Throne and Jon Snow renamed Aegon Targaryen is supposed to ascend to be the ruler of Westeros. Jon says, thanks but no thanks. Jon turns to the people he knows how to rule and will do an excellent job uniting the 7 kingdoms. Sansa Stark and Tyrion Lannister agree to co-rule with Jon’s urging. Jon decides to help rebuild the wall in the north and travel the seven kingdoms on his dragon. Brienne is named head of the new king’s guard and protects Sansa and Tyrion. Arya and Gendry move to and rebuild Winterfell with their new friend the Hound. Jaime Lannister heads home to fix the Lannister name and start over. Bronn gets a castle with a lady, just like he always wanted.”

I still think this scenario plays out in some way. The betting odds for who will sit on the Iron Throne are ever changing, but some other odds have come out pertaining to the ending too. They are interesting to say the least. I am convinced Danny is going to die. The hints of her becoming the mad queen are almost too obvious. They should show another close up of her eyes with fire in them. Seriously, we only got three shots like that last week, how about some more? If we expect Danny to die there are several ways this can go. We know Varys has a plan in place that may in fact be in motion to remove her and then place Jon Snow on the Iron Throne. Could Jon Snow actually kill Danny to keep her from burning the city down?

This clearly says to me not only are they not getting married, but Jon may actually be the one to take her out. Does that ruin his heroes journey? A little, but if he does it to save everyone, then I don’t know. Would this be the irredeemable act that allows Jon to abdicate the throne as I speculated? I think so.

This other strange betting prop showed up this week and I am not completely sure what to make of it.

Does this mean that whomever takes the Throne divides it into several kingdoms? Is just the North free? What about the Iron Islands? This prop bet seems to conflict with the last one about Jon killing Danny. I would think Danny might actually allow the North to be free despite her misgivings a few episodes ago.

Finally, the most import question. Who will rule Westeros at the end of the show. For the first time in a while we have a massive odds shift. Bran is now favored at +150. How did we get here? Well, Danny seems to be out. Jon doesn’t really want it. If Danny is dead she can’t have a child. We are running out of options in that scenario. While Varys and Tyrion were talking last week, they speculated that perhaps the best King is someone who doesn’t want to rule at all. We all thought this was about Jon Snow, but what if it is about Bran? Bran said he doesn’t want a title and to be Lord of Winterfell. Maybe he ends up as the King. Sansa’s odds have also risen dramatically. I think she may be the safest pick and as I stated above is part of how I see this all playing out along with Tyrion. Tyrion has been noticeably shaken recently and maybe his conversation with Bran is why. What if Bran told him he would be King in a few weeks and to prepare. That might mess with anyone’s head.

Heading into Sunday I am sticking with my Sansa/Tyrion co-rulers plan and Jon goes north to lead the Night’s Watch and rebuild the wall. Of course this is Game of Thrones so anything is in play. What do you think happens?

I was lucky enough to attend game six last night in Philadelphia. It was my first ever NBA playoff game and the atmosphere was amazing. The crowd was very nervous and especially hostile to Ben Simmons before the game even started. It is not a secret that Simmons has had a bad series and in many ways has been exposed. Simmons still can’t shoot. There isn’t even hope that he is trying to improve that area of his game. Simmons is the same player he has been the last two years. Watching him live one thing is clear, he must attack the rim more. Simmons must push the pace and be significantly more aggressive than he has been. As Simmons goes, so will the Sixers in game seven and beyond.

We had fantastic seats, mid court in the second level. You could see everything develop and understand how tired Joel Embiid really is. Embiid must play 40+ minutes in game seven. When he was off the court the Sixers got killed. I think Embiid was a +30 and Boban was something like -15 in four minutes. Toronto meanwhile really has six guys. Philly needs the game to be played in the 110’s or higher. I’m hopeful Philly pushes pace Sunday and makes that happen.

Sunday is going to be incredible. Mother’s day. At least two NBA game sevens. Game of Thrones. Insanity. Once the Rockets win tonight, it will make THREE GAME SEVENS SUNDAY. I would like to apologize to all Mothers everywhere, except the NBA fans. It is going to be a day you will want to cook a meal for your wife/mother and then plop down and watch all these important games. In order for us to get three game sevens the Rockets need to win tonight.

I have the Rockets to win the series and the Rockets to win in seven games. I mentioned the other night how I was planning to hedge and try to middle the game. Then Kevin Durant got hurt. Now I have this massive window to middle the game. I really want the line to move to 7.5 to squeeze out an extra half point to raise the probability of middling the situation. I will be on the Warriors +7, but I hope it moves to +7.5 by the time I get out to the sports book.

I have a similar situation to hedge out of my Portland and Denver futures. I will have no choice but to take Portland and the points for an amount to make sure I get my investment back. Again, thanks to the line of 5.5, I have a middle where I can win both bets. I am deciding what to do with that wager but I have until Sunday.

My wagers for now
Golden State +7

3 Team MLB Money Line Parlay
Astros
Red Sox
Dodgers
+223

6 Team Parlay
Golden State +7
Portland +5.5
Philly +6.5
Astros ML
Red Sox ML
Dodgers ML
+2149

Good Luck Everyone!

Current Open Bets
1. Nuggets 30/1 To Win NBA Title
2. Nuggets 28/1 To Win NBA Title
3. Portland 30/1 To Win NBA Title
4. Rockets to beat GS +235 Series Price
5. Rockets in 7 +850

 

NBA Record  53-47 (53%)
NBA Parlay and Teaser Record 10-19 +468
NBA Playoff Record 6-6 (50%)
NBA Playoff Parlay and Teaser Record 3-6 +68
Basketball Total Record 93-80 (53.75%)
Basketball Parlay and Teaser Record 13-38 -22
Baseball Record 1-2 -160
Baseball Parlays 2-2 87

I enjoy the hedge life. I like locking up a win. Half the reason I make some of the wager I do, is too extract value and then make money on them. I have said since the beginning, I don’t think the Nuggets can win the title. Yet, I have two different wagers on them to do just that. I believe that the Nuggets true odds are much better than 30/1. They are currently at around 18/1. If Kevin Durant is actually hurt and out for any length of time, I am sure the value I have built in on the Nuggets will in fact go up. The Plan all along was to hedge and bet against the Nuggets in the Western Conference finals. It may have just got easier to do so.

The next two nights present some very unique opportunities. I have a small wager on Portland at 30/1 to win the NBA title as well. Since they are facing an elimination game tonight, I want to bet against them to get my money out should they lose tonight. I assumed Portland would be favored in game 6 at home and that gives me a small window to middle and win all the bets. I will be taking Denver +3.5 tonight. If Denver wins out right, I get my money back from my Portland future. If Portland wins, my future is live and I lose this wager. I also have a small three-point window in which my Portland future lives and my Denver +3.5 comes in too. I am actually rooting for Denver to win, move on and I get my money out on Portland.

Speaking of windows, the Golden State Warriors are massive underdogs Friday night. As you can see below I have the Rockets to win the series and a separate bet on the Rockets to win in seven games. To make sure I don’t lose any money, I will take some of the built in equity and bet it on Golden State Friday night. I thought I would have a tiny middle window, but here I am with at least seven points. My dream scenario is the Rockets winning a close game and not covering. I am going to wait to lock in the number on Golden State, just in case it goes up a little.

 I am actually going to the Sixers game tonight and will be posting pictures! Good luck everyone!

Current Open Bets
1. Nuggets 30/1 To Win NBA Title
2. Nuggets 28/1 To Win NBA Title
3. Portland 30/1 To Win NBA Title
4. Rockets to beat GS +235 Series Price
5. Rockets in 7 +850

 

NBA Record  53-46 (53.53%)
NBA Parlay and Teaser Record 10-19 +468
NBA Playoff Record 6-5 (54.54%)
NBA Playoff Parlay and Teaser Record 3-6 +68
Basketball Total Record 93-79 (54.06%)
Basketball Parlay and Teaser Record 13-38 -22
Baseball Record 1-1 -60
Baseball Parlays 2-2 87

After that episode of Game of Thrones, you know the betting odds had to shift. The Night King is gone, but most of the main characters remain. I did find this theory that Jon assisted Arya in some way interesting. I re-watched this scene a few time and I can see what they are arguing about it. It does seem Jon makes eye contact with someone and it does appear he yells GOOOOOOOOOOO. Either Way, Arya was the hero and hit the game winner as time ran out.

Most of the online betting sites update their odds the day after “Battle of Winterfell,” and I always try to determine what they mean for where the show is going. It certainly appears we are headed to Jon Snow sitting on the Iron Throne when the show ends. That facts almost seems too obvious and as GOT fans we are conditioned to believe it actually won’t happen then.

Here are the current odds as to who will rule Westeros at the end of season 8 (Reminder the odds reflect what you would win if you bet $100 on that person)
Jon Snow +135
Bran Stark +450
Daenerys Targaryen +550
Sansa Stark +650
Gendry +750
Tyrion Lannister +850
Jon and Daenerys’ Child +1200
Arya Stark +1400
Cersei Lannister +2000
Petry Baelish +2500
Samwell Tarly +2500
Jaime Lannister +5000
Varys +5000
Davos +7000
Bronn +10000
Euron Greyjoy +10000
Brienne of Tarth +10000
Jaqun H’ghar +100000
Daario Naharis +12500
The Hound +12500
Yara Greyjoy +15000
Tormund Giantsbane +15000
Gilly +100000
The Mountain +1000000

 

Most of this list we can eliminate right off the bat. They will not be ruling at the end and frankly will probably die pretty soon. I am trimming the list to these possible winners.

Jon Snow +135
Bran Stark +450
Daenerys Targaryen +550
Sansa Stark +650
Gendry +750
Tyrion Lannister +850
Jon and Daenerys’ Child +1200
Arya Stark +1400
Cersei Lannister +2000

 

Since Bran claims he is not really Bran anymore, he can be removed as well. Cersei is going to die at some point, so it seems she will not rule either. Arya seems to have little to no interest in ruling anything. In Arya’s happy ending she probably ends up with Gendry. So despite him being the rightful Baratheon heir, I am removing him too. The list is trimmed again.

Jon Snow +135
Daenerys Targaryen +550
Sansa Stark +650
Tyrion Lannister +850
Jon and Daenerys’ Child +1200

This is where the fun begins. As I stated above, Jon Snow seems too obvious. Jon has mentioned multiple times he does not care about titles, only survival. Will that change? He gave up being Lord Commander of the Night’s Watch. He gave up being King in the North. Jon seems more than ready to bend the knee or abdicate his throne should he end up as the rightful ruler of Westeros.

Daenerys Targaryen is going to die. This is my hot take. I don’t know who is going to do it or why, but it is going to happen. Danny just can’t be the Queen unless Jon is dead right? Unless they get married. Danny will die at some point, in the last three episodes. Danny being dead means she can’t have a child. Unless there is a time jump she can’t have a child anyway.

And then there were two.
Sansa Stark +650
Tyrion Lannister +850

The scenario I see playing out in the final three episodes goes something like this. The big battle happens in episode five, in this episode we lose lots of people, including Danny and her dragon. We get the Hound and the Mountain battle and the Hound wins. After Danny’s death, our group takes the Iron Throne and Jon Snow renamed Aegon Targaryen is supposed to ascend to be the ruler of Westeros. Jon says, thanks but no thanks. Jon turns to the people he knows how to rule and will do an excellent job uniting the 7 kingdoms. Sansa Stark and Tyrion Lannister agree to co-rule with Jon’s urging. Jon decides to help rebuild the wall in the north and travel the seven kingdoms on his dragon. Brienne is named head of the new king’s guard and protects Sansa and Tyrion. Arya and Gendry move to and rebuild Winterfell with their new friend the Hound. Jaime Lannister heads home to fix the Lannister name and start over. Bronn gets a castle with a lady, just like he always wanted.

Maybe I am crazy, but this what I am thinking is going to happen! Jon just being the new King seems too simple and easy for a show that has been anything but that. What do you think?

 

The Sixers came through last night and so did the Nuggets in game one. Those Nuggets tickets are looking better every day!

I’ve been saying it for days and tonight will be a demonstration. The Rockets are getting 5.5 tonight in Golden State. I am taking the points. I believe the Rockets will shoot much better tonight and get the win, stealing home court. However much you normally bet on a game, double it tonight. Am I confident? Yes. Am I stupid? Maybe. Going against the best team in the NBA doesn’t make a lot of sense.

The Rockets played awful in game one. The fringe guys did very little. CLINT CAPELA AND PJ TUCKER I AM LOOKING AT YOU. The Warriors have made their last adjustment. They have nothing left to do. They aren’t going to play Jordan Bell or Quinn Cook all the sudden to give them an edge. This is all the Warriors have. Of course, the Warriors could make 20 threes and it might not matter. The shooting woes of the Rockets have to flip, it starts tonight. Rockets +5.5.

I think the Bucks win tonight and tie the series with the Celtics, but I am not completely comfortable laying that many points. I do have a wager idea involving them. You could play the Rockets and the points with the Bucks money line (Pays +150), but ehhh, doesn’t really move the needle. If you really want to have some fun.

Parlay
Rockets +5.5
Bucks Money Line
Phillies Money Line
Indians Money Line
Astros Money Line
Rays Money Line
+1368

A simple $20 wager would earn you $273 or so depending upon money line odds at the moment. I am playing this parlay for a small amount and then loading up on the Rockets.

I am also going to take the Rockets +5.5 and the Bucks ML in a small parlay. I believe this night belongs to Houston. Despite who the officials may be.

Current Open Bets
1. Nuggets 30/1 To Win NBA Title
2. Nuggets 28/1 To Win NBA Title
3. Portland 30/1 To Win NBA Title
4. Rockets to beat GS +235 Series Price
5. Rockets in 6 +800
6. Rockets in 7 +850

 

NBA Record  51-44 (53.68%)
NBA Parlay and Teaser Record 9-18 -50
NBA Playoff Record 4-3 (57.14%)
NBA Playoff Parlay and Teaser Record 1-4 -390
Basketball Total Record 91-77 (54.16%)
Basketball Parlay and Teaser Record 12-36 -440
Baseball Record 0-1 -160
Baseball Parlays 0-1 -100

Yesterday was kind of exhausting. I drove back to town, took my son to see Avengers: End Game, got the kids to bed and then waited for the main event. It seems crazy to say that End Game was not the main event, but that is exactly where we are with Game of Thrones. I don’t know if there is anyone left who doesn’t watch this show. I mean what is wrong with you? You are only depriving yourself of what is arguably the greatest TV show of all time. It is top three at least. (Breaking Bad and the Wire)

Last night was dark; no I don’t mean the story or plot line. Much of the episode was dark and difficult to see, which apparently was planned to give viewers the same confusion as the characters fighting in the battle. We always watch with the lights off so some of the early parts were slightly difficult to see, the entire episode worked perfectly for me. Every one of our main characters and most of the people we love that are equally as important to us all have vastly different looks. It was apparently who was on the screen at all times. I found myself anxious and nervous for the entire run time of the episode. Knowing how the show works, I didn’t want to see characters I cared about at all. If I didn’t see them, they couldn’t die. That makes sense right? I kept yelling, GET ARYA OFF THE SCREEN. NOT TODAY THOUGH!

The imagery of the Dothraki swords all lighting like dominoes falling and then slowly being extinguished was powerful, beautiful and haunting at the same time. That really set the tone for the entire episode. From the chaos and loud confusing violence to the “Alien” like silence of Arya in the library, the episode was exceptional. The shot of the dragons in the peaceful moon light above the fray reminded me of the moment in Matrix Revolutions when Neo and Trinity fly their ship above the clouds and see the sun for a brief moment before returning to the fight. HBO turned a television show into a movie right in front of our eyes and every scene was so well done. If the episode was just about Arya and her point of view in the battle it would have been amazing too. Obviously, Arya is the hero of the night. I cheered like the Steelers won a playoff game on the final play. In a way this kind of reminded me of the Steelers/Colts playoff game from 2005. Arya jumping was the Joey Porter sack on 4^th down. Arya getting grabbed was the Jerome Bettis Fumble. Aryra grabbing the knife with the other hand was the Ben tackle. The final blow was the missed field goal to end the game and bail everyone out. Excellent. Speaking of excellent. THE MEME’S!

 

 

 

So where do we go from here? Who is going to rule the Iron Throne three weeks from now? Check out these updated betting odds.

Jon is almost too obvious and we have seen him give up his titles multiple times. Leader of night’s watch. King of the North. Rightful ruler of the seven kingdoms could be next. I really like Sansa at +650. I could see a Danny dies, Jon wins but doesn’t want to throne scenario. He turns to Sansa who brings in Tyrion as her hand. That would work for me.

 

In terms of the next major death we have some interesting odds.

Look at Ghost showing up now! I don’t have any idea who could be next, but this certainly points to the Mountain and the Hound finally squaring off! What do you think? I can’t wait until next Sunday!

What a crazy few days betting. The Warriors lost at home for the second time these playoffs and cost me three parlays at this point. Man. I did win my series long parlay on all the favorites in round one, but that wasn’t my biggest win. I needed the Nuggets to win in round one, but they were favored in game seven. So I hedged. My hedge came with a caveat. I had a five-point possible middle. I bet the Spurs +6 and hoped Denver won and didn’t cover. Thankfully, the Spurs did whatever they did on that end of game scenario and the Spurs were good. I won both of my bigger wagers and despite a losing record as it shows below, I am actually up after round one of the playoff.

Before round two started I made one wager, I took the Rockets to beat the Warriors at +240. I honestly think they are going to win this series. Yes, they lost game one, but they shot so terribly from behind the arc. If you count game seven from last year that’s two straight games the Rockets couldn’t make a three against the Warriors. That has to flip. I think the Rockets still win this series. But how? Well, the Rockets are not going to win the next four and win in five games. I suppose I could take the Rockets at +350 to win the series. However, I see a better option.

Rockets in 6 +800
Rockets in 7 +850

Both of those wagers seem like a much better plan than taking the Rockets to win the series. After all, they are not winning the next four games in a row. I am going to do just that. I am really invested in the Rockets and Nuggets now. In theory I have hedge opportunities against Golden State in this round and for sure in the next too.

For tonight I am jumping on one game. I know this is a terrible matchup and I know they are going to lose the series, but I like the Sixers +6.5 tonight. This is not a must win, but it feels like they need to have a better showing than game one. If Kawhai and Siakim shoot like that again it won’t matter, but I think Philly puts up a massive fight. Sixers +6.5.

 

Current Open Bet
1. Nuggets 30/1 To Win NBA Title
2. Nuggets 28/1 To Win NBA Title
3. Portland 30/1 To Win NBA Title
4. Rockets to beat GS +235 Series Price
5. Rockets in 6 +800
6. Rockets in 7 +850

 

 

NBA Record  50-44 (53.19%)
NBA Parlay and Teaser Record 9-18 -50
NBA Playoff Record 3-3 (50%)
NBA Playoff Parlay and Teaser Record 1-4 -390
Basketball Total Record 90-77 (53.89%)
Basketball Parlay and Teaser Record 12-36 -440
Baseball Record 0-1 -160
Baseball Parlays 0-1 -100

Tonight and tomorrow should be very good. All I need is Golden State to win tonight to close out my parlay from last night and pay +230. I thought about trying to hedge or middle it, but I think a blowout is possible. I will just let the Warriors close it out and collect my money. It should be even more money, but Dame’s shot was only worth three and not four points. I wish I was awake to see it live!

Denver won as well last night meaning they need one more win to cash the round one series parlay listed below. I added a new section to the blog, current open bets. As you can see I have a few things listed that now include three different NBA title tickets. One of the teams involved will be playing in the western conference finals.

Current Open Bet
1. Nuggets 30/1 To Win NBA Title
2. Nuggets 28/1 To Win NBA Title
3. Portland 30/1 To Win NBA Title
4. 7 Team Round one NBA Parlay (Excludes Portland) +200
5. 5 Team Money Line Parlay
Toronto WIN
Philly WIN
Denver WIN
Portland WIN
Golden State
+230

At this point if Denver reaches the western conference finals I have a large amount I can wager to hedge. If the Warriors are -300 in the western finals, I can easily bet $600 to win $200 and make a profit. The best case scenario for me is that Houston beats the Warriors and then they are -$180 to beat Denver. I can really load up on the Rockets then with almost no risk. I feel like I have good value already as Denver is down to 22/1 and Portland is now 25/1. I will have a lot more on this in the future.

I have one wager for tonight and it is free money with a little risk.

Golden State and Houston Money Line Parlay -320. Risk the $320 and collect your $100.

NBA Record  49-44 (52.68%)
NBA Parlay and Teaser Record 8-16 +183
NBA Playoff Record 2-3 (40%)
NBA Playoff Parlay and Teaser Record 0-2 -200
Basketball Total Record 89-77 (53.61%)
Basketball Parlay and Teaser Record 11-34 -17
Baseball Record 0-1 -160
Baseball Parlays 0-1 -100

It’s that time of the year. It’s officially fall asleep on the couch watching the late NBA playoff game season. During football season this only happens twice a week. At this point it happens more often than I would like to admit. I woke up last night with about three minutes left in the Utah and Houston game. Clearly, had to watch the end and check my DFS baseball lineups before stumbling to bed for the next four hours. This is not ideal in any way. I don’t want to do this, but I always say I will just watch the first quarter and go to bed. This is a lie. I repeat this lie to myself almost every week night.

The East has featured four teams that were clearly better than everyone else. Soon, we will see those four teams battle. As a Sixers fan I want to believe they can actually win the East, but I don’t think anyone is getting by Milwaukee. That is unless the Celtics figure it out. I am not going to over react to the Celtics sweeping the Pacers. That is what they should have done. Outside of making a bet on the Bucks to win the NBA title, I am not touching these series prices. I will however be targeting some games when the time is right.

The Western conference presents us with some interesting opportunities. As you may know I have a ticket on the Nuggets to win the title. Today I am adding more to the Nuggets and also buying a Portland title ticket. Why? Can either of those teams beat Golden State? Probably not, but I don’t need them to. I am just looking to hedge in the western conference finals. It is almost a lock that one of those two teams will play in the Western conference finals. At that point I will happily hedge and bet against them. I could do this in the series price or in an elimination game. Both Portland and Denver are 30/1 to win the NBA title at the moment. The math should be in our favor to hedge in the future and lock up a nice win.

I still have my large parlay on all the favorites to win their series in round one of the NBA playoffs. None of them are in any danger except maybe Denver. I believe Denver wins tonight and finishes off the Spurs. If the Nuggets face an elimination game, I will just bet the Spurs for the amount of my parlay and get myself out of it even. I don’t expect to have to do that though. I assume Denver wins tonight and it is a non-issue.

Speaking of tonight…

5 Team Money Line Parlay
Toronto
Philly
Denver
Portland
Golden State
+230

Golden State plays tomorrow, but the other four are tonight. I could see Portland being a tight game, but I will take them at home against the Thunder who are looking to go home. Also, Portland -4. Paul George is hurt, and the Trailblazers are so tough at home. Dame continues to dominate and they will advance tonight. Feels like another night of falling asleep on the couch watching the playoffs.

 

 

 

 

 

Current Open Bets
Nuggets 28/1 To Win NBA Title
7 Team Round one NBA Parlay (Excludes Portland) +200

NBA Record  49-43 (53.26%)
NBA Parlay and Teaser Record 8-16 +183
NBA Playoff Record 2-2 (50%)
NBA Parlay and Teaser Record 0-2 -200
Basketball Total Record 89-76 (53.93%)
Basketball Parlay and Teaser Record 11-34 -17
Baseball Record 0-1 -160
Baseball Parlays 0-1 -100

What a massive news day today for sports betting. It appears that within the next three weeks, the first live sports betting app will be released. From what I have read two of the contending apps will be from William Hill and the Fan Duel Sports Book app. These two make a ton of sense since they are already used in New Jersey and can be used then in PA. This is a moment I have been waiting for and it’s finally upon us. I wonder if they want this out prior to the Kentucky Derby? While you can bet horses online now, an app like this would make it much easier.

The other big news of today was that online poker would be back and live in Pennsylvania on July 15^th. I was there all the way from start of online poker until the day it all ended and Full Tilt and Poker Stars went down. I can’t wait for this to return. Many of us that gamble and play fantasy sports have a back ground in poker. In fact, I haven’t played a WSOP event since 2004. I’ve played in several events in Atlantic City and the Borgata and what not, but after graduating college I played mostly online. Having the option to play online again just feels like a dream come true. I’ve missed it. It was my income and kept me in great shape in college and my first year after graduation and into my early adult years. I assume it won’t be the same as it was, but I can hope.

The Masters did not go as planned. Really Paul Casey is to blame, but what can you do. Just like every other losing bet or bad lineup, just try to learn from it and move on. Maybe playing 100% Paul Casey was a mistake. If he makes the cut though it would have been fine. On to the next one.

The NBA playoffs started and I have made some wagers. If you are following on Twitter and Instagram, then you saw them. I had a day one parlay that died as soon as the Sixers lost the opening game. I had my parlay the other night lost thanks to the Warriors blowing that 31-point lead. Emoji Shrug. The rest of that parlay came in. The only outstanding wager I have is my parlay that includes seven favorites to advance in round one. That Pays about +110 and I still feel good about it.

There is an old gambling theory about the NBA playoffs that was once very profitable in the early and mid-2000’s. It was called the zig-zag. The theory was simple. Don’t bet game one, but then bet on the outright losers against the spread in game two. Proceed this way for the remaining games in each and every series. This was effective if you picked your spots until the Heat and Warriors took over the NBA. Now that the NBA seems to be very deep and well balanced, this system is something to monitor.

On Monday the zig-zag went 2-0. Last night it went 2-1. Tonight the theory would be to take the Pacers, the Pistons and the Jazz. Above I said pick your spots with this, that was in reference to the Pacers and Pistons tonight. I would not touch either of those teams at all. I do like the Jazz though. If the Rockets other than Harden shoot the way they did in game one, the Jazz are in trouble. However, this feels like a Jazz hang close and lose spot to me. (I want to mention that I did have Denver and Toronto last night, including a Denver/Toronto/TB Rays Parlay. I forgot to post it so, I will not count it for my record. Sucks, but that is on me.)

In terms of wagers I am making tonight
Utah +7

Atlanta -160 (MLB)

Three Team Parlay +334
ATL -160
TB -250
Utah +7

 

 

 

NBA Record  48-41 (53.93%)
NBA Parlay and Teaser Record 8-16 +183
NBA Playoff Record 1-0 (100%)
NBA Parlay and Teaser Record 0-2 -200
Basketball Total Record 88-74 (54.32%)
Basketball Parlay and Teaser Record 11-34 -17
*I removed college basketball from record as the season has ended