Finally, an odds boost I can get behind. I hope that you are following on Twitter as I have been adding more Bryson bets. Should be a fun weekend!

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

NBA Model Plays
CLE +7.5
WAS +4.5
MEM +3
ORL +7.5
CHI +2 (Highest Rated in the Model)
UTA -18
IND +4.5

NBA Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
Jokic 10 Assists and Murray to make 3+ threes +300 (FD)
Murray’s made three prop is set to 3.5 and the under is heavily juiced.
Jokic’s assist prop is set to 8.5 and the over is juiced.
These two parlayed together should pay around +195 or so. Considering this is a predicted to be a competitive game with a high total, it make sense they could both get there. I am in.

Lebron to record a triple double +370 (FD)
Lebron is +400 to record a triple double on Draft Kings. Pass on this boost.

Lebron to score 30+ and Lakers to win +245 (DK)
Lebron’s point prop is set to 28.5 and the under is slightly juiced.
If you parlay Lebron to go over his prop and the Lakers to win it should pay +197.
If you parlay Lebron to score 30+ points and the Lakers to win it pays +183 on Fan Duel.
Obviously, those two numbers are a little off. While this is a nice boost Lebron has scored 30+ only seven times this season. Pass.

Morant and LaVine 1+ dunk each (Fox)
Pass on these dunk ones, unless they are fantastic.

Sixers/Pelicans/Heat all to win +300 (Fox)
This should pay +261 and if it did not involve the Heat I would be more interested. Miami is thin and this is a back-to-back. Yes, I realize it is for the Bulls as well, but they got run out of the building last night. Pass, but I get why you would want to fire.

Morant and Butler to each make a dunk and a three +400 (Fox)
If I recall Butler has not made many threes this year and I am against the dunk props. Pass.

Butler/Mitchell/Murray all 25+ points +600 (Fox)
Butler’s point prop is set to 23.5 and the over is heavily juiced.
Mitchell’s point prop is set to 25.5 and the over is slightly juiced.
Murray’s point prop is set to 23.5 and the under is slightly juiced.
Butler is +100 to score 25+ Points.
Mitchell is -145 to score 25+ points.
Murray is +112 to score 25+ points.
This parlayed together should pay around +552, but we have to assume the Rockets get blown out and the Jazz win easily. This could affect Mitchell’s minutes. Pass.

NCAA Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
Baylor and OK ST to go to OT +1750 (DK)
Pass. Always for this.

Creighton and UNC to win +375 (DK)
This includes a tony dog and a tiny favorite. I mean, I guess if you liked it before, but it is not a must bet for me. Pass.

Baylor/Arkansas/Iowa to all win +150 (Fox)
Baylor is -9.
Arkansas is -5.
Iowa is -4.5.
If you parlay them it should pay, +175. Pass on this boost.

NBA
WAS +4.5
This feels like a good spot to jump on the Wizards coming off of rest. This is back-to-back for the Sixers and I know Embiid is back, but Simmons is out.

NCAAB
Nothing at this time.

Let’s Get Weird
Baylor/Illinois/Houston/NOP/Utah Jazz Money Line Parlay +132

Basketball
2020-2021 Season Record
NBA Record 29-30 49.15%
NCAA Record 9-13 40.9%
Hoops Parlay Record 7-17 -445
Hoops Odds Boosts 28-42 +2365
Hoops Player Props 4-2 +530
NBA Model Highest Rated 34-30 53.12%
NBA Model 212-225 48.51%

I have been sick. I am sure you can guess with what. Anyway, there is a lot to look at for tonight.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

NBA Model Plays
DET +4.5
BRK -2
ATL -3
ORL +8.5
CHI -3.5
MIN +8.5
NYK +10.5 (Highest Rated in Model)
OKC +6
GSW +7.5
HOU +5
PHO -4.5

NBA Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
Fan Duel has two 3×2 boosts. I am always a pass on these.

Harden to record a triple double and the Nets to win +525 (DK)
Harden is +200 to record a triple double tonight and the Nets are small favorites. This should pay around +411. I am slightly worried about the Nets here with the Celtics being healthy for the first time. Pass.

Curry to make 5+ threes and Warriors to win +495 (DK)
The Warriors are seven-point dogs. This is a boost, but I am going to pass on this big of a dog. No thanks.

KAT/LaVine/Kawhi each to make a three and a dunk +200 (Fox)
Pass, this is a weird and wild boost, but I hate these dunk boosts as you know. Pass.

Nets/Sixers/Pelicans +450 (Fox)
This is a slight boost as it should pay +421, but the Sixers do not have Simmons and Embiid! I already stated I am worried about the Nets too. Pass.

Giannis/Kyrie/Steph to all score 30+ points +600 (Fox)
If you parlay this on Fan Duel it should pay +567, so it is a slight boost. This feels weird to invest in players who are bigger dogs in Curry and large favorites in Giannis. Pass.

NCAA Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
Kansas and TT both to win +240 (DK)
This is a slight boost, but both game involved tiny spreads. Pass.

NBA
NYK +10.5
I am riding with the model and want to see if a healthy Bucks team can get back to blowing out teams. They have not done it much all year.

NCAAB
Nothing at this time.

Let’s Get Weird
Nothing at this time.

Basketball
2020-2021 Season Record
NBA Record 29-29 50%
NCAA Record 9-13 40.9%
Hoops Parlay Record 7-17 -445
Hoops Odds Boosts 28-42 +2365
Hoops Player Props 4-2 +530
NBA Model Highest Rated 34-29 53.96%
NBA Model 206-220 48.35%

That is two in a row!!!!

I will break down my wager by location, so you can get the best number possible. I am taking some shots here in each range, as you will see.

I am all about the sites having PGA odds boosts every week! If they do, I will continue to break them down as well. PGA betting is something I started a few years back and really enjoy. All you need is to hit one winner to have a great year, depending upon the price. Last year, obviously, I picked more than a few winners. I am going to list the other bets I continue to make of top 20’s, top 10’s, etc. I had only been listing my outrights, but I will now list everything.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

PGA
Xander 24/1 FD
Zalatoris 85/1 FD
Zalatoris top 20 +300 DK
Norlander 240/1 FD
Norlander top 20 +700 FD

PGA Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
Under Par bonus on FD – Bet $50 or more and spin the wheel and ever shot under par the guy you bet finishes you get a bonus back. I got $2 for Xander. So if he finishes -10, I will get $20 in bonus money. I think it is great of them to do these things and I will always take advantage. I mean, I was making the bet anyway.

Bryson to finish top 20 +150 (DK)
This should pay minus money and how can I turn my back on my guy after he won us money last week? I am in.

2 or more holes in one +320 (DK)
While there were two in 2019, there are plenty of years with zero. I am going to pass. But this is a fun wager to make.

Morikawa to finish top 5 +620 (DK)
This is boosted, but I am off him this week so I am passing.

Picks This Season (Winners in Bold)
3/4/21
Bryson 13/1 (FD)
Zalatoris 45/1 (DK)
Kokrak 40/1 (FOX)
Norlander 140/1 (FD)


2/25
Will Zalatoris 70/1 (DK)
Will Zalatoris Top 10 +550 (DK)
Collin Morikawa 45/1 (DK)
Bryson 20/1


2/18
Bryson 18/1 FD
Bryson 20/1 DK Boost
Kokrak 110/1 FD
Kokrak Top 20 +360


2/11
Kevin Streelman 37/1 Finished 13th
Adam Long 125/1
Streelman top 10 +280 Finished 13
Long top 10 +800
Berger (Live Sunday Morning) +550

2/4
Munoz 125/1
Xander 11/1 –Finished second and blew a lead on the last day, UGH.

1/28
Xander 13/1 –Finished tied for second. Ugh.
Palmer 65/1 – Finished tied for second. Ugh.
Gooch 90/1 
Huh 130/1

1/21
Henley 35/1
Brendan Steele 90/1

1/14
Abraham Ancer 30/1

PGA Winners I Bet Last Season 
6/28 Dustin Johnson 28-1 Travelers (Live bet him at 60/1 too)
8/2 Justin Thomas 10-1 WGC ST Jude (I had JT on 7/12 too and he lost in a playoff)
8/9 Morikawa 30-1 PGA Championship
8/23 Dustin Johnson 20-1 Northern Trust
9/20 Bryson DeChambeau 33-1 U.S. Open
10/25 Patrick Cantlay 30/1 ZoZo Championship

PGA Odds Boost Record
1-2 +200

I know this is the return and we have PGA, but this will be short. I have been sick. I am sure you can guess with what. Anyway, there is a lot to look at for tonight and for golf tomorrow.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

NBA Model Plays
MEM-3.5
SAS +4 (Highest Rated in model, but not that high)

NBA Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
LUKA to record a triple double +370 (FD)
LUKA to record a triple double +470 (DK)
LUKA to record a triple double +333 (Fox)
Luka’s point prop is set to 29.5 and the under is juiced.
Luka’s assist prop is set to 8.5 and the over is juiced.
Luka’s rebound prop is set to 8.5 and the over is heavily juiced.
Overall, I was about to say how much I did not like this boost. However, looking at it, Luka only needs to go over his prop by one extra assist and rebound. The points will be there. I am in. Only, on the DK one of course.


JA and Russ to each have 10+ assists +290 (FD)
This should pay around +251. Russ should get there, but JA has struggled to get over this number. Ja’s assist prop is set to 8.5 and the under is juiced. I am going to pass.

DDR to score 20+ and the Spurs to win +400 (FD)
This is right at DDR’s points prop at exactly 20 points. I just am not sure I want to go against a healthy and rested Dallas team. This should pay about +381 so it is a slight boost. Pass.

JA and Beal to combine for over 56.5 points +105 (DK)
Beal’s point prop is set to 33.5 and the under is juiced.
Ja’s point prop is set to 23.5 and the over is slightly juiced. If they both go over you would get there. It is not a complete equivalency, but if you parlay them to both go over it pays +262. For that reason, this is a pass to me.

Lebron or Embiid MVP -125 (DK)
Pass on this. One COVID scare this can change easily. Pass.

JA and Luka one or more dunks each +900 (Fox)
Pass, we know these dunk boosts are not great.

LUKA/Beal/Ja to each score 25+ points +200 (Fox)
Beal is -900 to score 25+.
Luka is -320 to score 25+.
Ja is +102 to score 25+.
On the surface, this seems pretty good since both guys are supposed to get there. However, if you parlay them together it should pay +195. So much for being a boost. If you want to play this go for it, but I will pass.

MEM and Dallas to win +175 (Fox)
This is a slight boost as it pays +159 on another site. I am going to pass though. These are two games with smaller spreads.

NCAA Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
Duke and UNC to win +145 (FD)
Duke is a tiny favorite and has been all over the map this year. It feels like they want this season to end. This should pay +131, so it is a boost, but I will pass.

DK gave me a free championship week boost. You can get a 20% to 200% boost. I got 20% Good luck to you.

OK/AZST/PSU all to win +230 (DK)
OK -720
PSU -270
AZ ST -108
This should pay around +205. Meh, if you like it sure, but I am not rushing over to bet this. Pass for me.

Providence and Stanford to both win -106 (DK)
Both teams are seven-point favorites and parlayed together should pay -127. Hey, look I am going to jump on one of these. I am in.

Fox Bet if you bet $10 on college hoops you get a free $10 to use on 3/18 or later.

NBA
Nothing at this time.

NCAAB
Nothing at this time.

Let’s Get Weird
Nothing at this time.

Basketball
2020-2021 Season Record
NBA Record 29-29 50%
NCAA Record 9-13 40.9%
Hoops Parlay Record 7-16 -345
Hoops Odds Boosts 28-42 +1895
Hoops Player Props 4-2 +530
NBA Model Highest Rated 34-28 54.83%
NBA Model 205-219 48.34%

The NBA break is slow and you will see there are not a ton of options. There is one boost I am on and of course our favorite team that has been good to us is playing and I cannot resist.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

NBA Model Plays
NA

NBA Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
It is the NBA All-Star Break!

NCAA Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
20% Parlay boost on any 4+ team Parlay (DK)


Miami and GT to win +100 (DK)
Yes, this is a slight boost as it should be around -110. Miami is not great though, even though Boston College is worse. Pass.

George Mason and VCU to both win +400 (Fox)
GM is a decently sized dog here. This should pay around +367, so it is a boost. However, pass on the dog included in this.

Drake/Belmont/Florida Gulf Coast all to win +250 (Fox)
This should pay around +202 and I do like Drake. Belmont is also a nice sixed favorite as this is primarily about FGC winning as a smaller favorite. I am going to take a shot here since I do like Drake. I am in.

NBA
Nothing at this time.

NCAAB
Drake -6.5
They beat this team twice this year and covered this number twice. I have to go back to my squad here.

Let’s Get Weird
Nothing at this time.

Basketball
2020-2021 Season Record
NBA Record 29-29 50%
NCAA Record 9-13 40.9%
Hoops Parlay Record 7-15 -245
Hoops Odds Boosts 28-42 +1895
Hoops Player Props 4-2 +530
NBA Model Highest Rated 34-28 54.83%
NBA Model 205-219 48.34%

The last slate before the all-star break always makes me sad. What are we to do with no NBA for a few days? This is the time to start digging into college hoops a little more. Now, I know in a normal year this break occurs like three weeks ago. However, with the schedule changed we can only deal with what we have. I will really enjoy NBA in the Summer months though.

Please be aware that right before breaks things can get wonky. People rest, people sit random things happen, as teams prepare to regroup for a few days. Keep all of that in mind if lines shift dramatically throughout the day.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

NBA Model Plays
TOR +8.5
LAC -6
DET +7 (Highest Rated in Model)
IND +4.5
MEM +5.5
NOP -2.5
OKC +6.5
SAC +4.5

NBA Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
3×2 Boost Heat and Pelicans +100
No. Never. When I see data as to how many threes are taken in the first three minutes I will consider this.

Zion to score 30+ and Pelicans to win +370 (FD)
Zion’s points prop is set to 26.5 and the over is juiced. If you parlay Zion to go over his prop and the Pelicans to win, it pays around +225.
Zion is +154 to score 30+ points tonight. If you parlay that and the Pelicans to win it pays +251.
Zion has scored 30+ in nine of 34 games, roughly 26.4% of the games he has played this season. This is actually pretty good all things considered. Competitive game with a small spread and Zion has flirted with this number plenty of times. I am going to wait and see injury info for the Heat as Butler and Bam are questionable, but I am intrigued. Patients here for now.

Curry and Booker to combine for over 7.5 made threes +130 (DK)
People are resting here as this game is off the board. I will update later.

Zion over 3.5 dunks and Pelicans to win +400 (DK)
Zion has 69 dunks in 34 games. To put this another way Zion averages 2.02 dunks per game this season. Not only would be need to all but double what he normally does, the Pelicans need to win. Pass.

Giannis and Ja 1 or more dunk each +100 (Fox)
Giannis is a lock to dunk. Ja has 12 dunks in 23 games. Ehh, this needs to be closer +200 just like an Embiid prop. Pass.

Celtics/Clippers/Nuggets all to win +200 (Fox)
This pays +199 on Fan Duel. Meh, not much of a boost. Pass.

Jokic and Giannis to score 30+ points +350 (Fox)
Jokic’s point prop is set to 26.5 and the over is slightly juiced.
Giannis point prop is set to 31.5.
If you parlay the over on both of these, it pays +261.
Giannis is -166 to score 30+ and Jokic is +154 to do the same. If you parlay them to both score 30+, it pays +307. This is a boost, but is not exactly something I am lining up to play. Pass.

Jaylen Brown and Jamal Murray to each make a dunk and a three +900 (Fox)
Brown has 12 dunks in 32 games.
Brown averages a little over two made threes per game this season.
Murray has nine dunks in 33 games this season.
Murray averages a little over 2.5-made threes per game this season.
You are basically betting on two guys who do not dunk that often to each dunk tonight. Pass.

NCAA Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
Michigan/Baylor/WVU to all win by 10+ points +340 (DK)
Michigan is -12.
Baylor is -12.
WVU is -13.
So, this may seem great on the surface, you get a deal on every line. However, if you parlay them to cover their current spread this parlay pays +608. I would say that is pretty wild of a difference.
Using alternative points spread with each school set to -10, this should pay around +292. Yes, this is a boost and I get why you would be interested. However, I would rather give the extra few points to almost double your pay out. If you do play this I do not blame you, but I am passing.

Texas to lead at halftime and Oklahoma to win +830 (DK)
I hate bets like this where you can get it right, but also be wrong. This is threading a tiny needle. Pass.

NBA
DET +7
Yes, I know they are missing a bunch of people, but I am rolling with the model here.

NCAAB
Nothing at this time.

Let’s Get Weird
Nothing at this time.

Basketball
2020-2021 Season Record
NBA Record 29-28 50.87%
NCAA Record 9-13 40.9%
Hoops Parlay Record 7-15 -245
Hoops Odds Boosts 28-41 +1995
Hoops Player Props 4-2 +530
NBA Model Highest Rated 34-27 55.73%
NBA Model 200-214 48.30%

I will break down my wager by location, so you can get the best number possible. I am taking some shots here in each range, as you will see.

I am all about the sites having PGA odds boosts every week! If they do, I will continue to break them down as well. PGA betting is something I started a few years back and really enjoy. All you need is to hit one winner to have a great year, depending upon the price. Last year, obviously, I picked more than a few winners. I am going to list the other bets I continue to make of top 20’s, top 10’s, etc. I had only been listing my outrights, but I will now list everything.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

PGA
Bryson 13/1 (FD)
Zalatoris 45/1 (DK)
Kokrak 40/1 (FOX)
Norlander 140/1 (FD)



PGA Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
Any American to win the Arnold Palmer Invitational +175 (FD)
This is not bad about five of the top ten in terms of betting odds are American. You can play this if you want, but ehh, I am going to pass. If this was +200 I would be in.


Picks This Season (Winners in Bold)
2/25
Will Zalatoris 70/1 (DK)
Will Zalatoris Top 10 +550 (DK)
Collin Morikawa 45/1 (DK)
Bryson 20/1


2/18
Bryson 18/1 FD
Bryson 20/1 DK Boost
Kokrak 110/1 FD
Kokrak Top 20 +360


2/11
Kevin Streelman 37/1 Finished 13th
Adam Long 125/1
Streelman top 10 +280 Finished 13
Long top 10 +800
Berger (Live Sunday Morning) +550

2/4
Munoz 125/1
Xander 11/1 –Finished second and blew a lead on the last day, UGH.

1/28
Xander 13/1 –Finished tied for second. Ugh.
Palmer 65/1 – Finished tied for second. Ugh.
Gooch 90/1 
Huh 130/1

1/21
Henley 35/1
Brendan Steele 90/1

1/14
Abraham Ancer 30/1

PGA Winners I Bet Last Season 
6/28 Dustin Johnson 28-1 Travelers (Live bet him at 60/1 too)
8/2 Justin Thomas 10-1 WGC ST Jude (I had JT on 7/12 too and he lost in a playoff)
8/9 Morikawa 30-1 PGA Championship
8/23 Dustin Johnson 20-1 Northern Trust
9/20 Bryson DeChambeau 33-1 U.S. Open
10/25 Patrick Cantlay 30/1 ZoZo Championship

PGA Odds Boost Record
1-2 +200

When you bet a parlay, or an odds boost with multiple components, there is always one part of the wager that is the “hard part.” Yesterday, Ja Morant scoring 25+ was the hard part. I knew he would have a big game. I played him in all my DFS lineups as well. Ja, exploded and crushed. Great, now Trae Young just needs to handle his part. Trae scored four points in the first half. What a weird game. With Jimmy Butler out the Heat scored 38 first-half points. Insane. Trae of course bounced back and finished with 21 points, but man it was right there. This is why gambling can be frustrating and not for everyone. I mentioned yesterday that all you can do is keep putting yourself in good spots and see what happens.

Late last night someone sent me a new Fox Bet boost of Chris Paul to have a double double and the Suns to win at +333. I ran the numbers and it should have paid under +200. I fired it up and tweeted it out. Chris Paul barely scored in the first half. Then Devin Booker was ejected. Oh man, this is perfect for Paul, but not great for the Suns part of the wager. The Suns ended up handling their business, but Paul finished with only eight points. The most difficult thing when betting basketball is a player or team not making shots. There is nothing you can do, but some days teams shoot 18% from the floor. It happens.

Draft Kings had a 25% profit boost yesterday for college basketball and I took it a different way. Despite them advertising a $50 max, mine was much lower, but I used it on a future bet. I thought WVU had a great chance to beat Baylor yesterday and will be a tough out in the tournament. I think a possible two-seed should not be 30/1 to win the title. I took WVU and boosted them to +3750. I know that Baylor and Gonzaga are the two best teams and Michigan is a distant third, but after that, anything can happen. I will take West Virginia as the first future I am adding. I am sure I will consider more. This pains me as a Pitt graduate and fan, but money is money.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

NBA Model Plays
CLE +6.5
UTA -3
DET +6
HOU +10
ATL -3.5
CHI +5.5 (Highest Rated in Model)
CHA -1.5
OKC +5
LAL +3
POR +2

NBA Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
Harden to record a triple-double +230 (DK)
Harden is +180 to record a triple-double on Fan Duel.
Harden’s points prop is set to 29.5.
Harden’s assist prop is set to 11.5.
Harden’s rebound prop is set to 8.5 and the over is slightly juiced.
No matter how you slice it, this is a pretty solid boost. Besides the revenge narrative, the only thing that gives me pause is the blowout potential. I am going to play this and hope the game stays close. I am in.

Curry and Dame each to make 5+ threes +175 (DK)
Curry is -280 to make 5+ threes.
Dame is -130 to make 5+ threes.
This parlayed together pays +140. Apparently, tonight is narrative night for the NBA odds boosts. Curry’s made threes prop is set to 5.5 and over is heavily juiced. Dame’s made threes prop is set to 4.5 and the over is heavily juiced. I believe in this competition narrative. This is their third meeting of the season. In the previous two Dame made six threes in each game. Curry made four threes in one game and eight in the other. I am in.


33% Profit boost on any 3+ leg parlay (DK)
I will be using this on something. I will mention at the bottom.


Harden/Kyrie/Harris to all make 3+ threes +250 (FD)
Harden is -390 to make 3+ threes.
Harris is -240 to make 3+ threes.
Kyrie is -152 to make 3+ threes.
If you parlay them together it pays +205. Again as long as the game remains competitive, this has a great chance of getting there. This is basically a Kyrie bet since the other two get there very often. Tonight is going to be fun. I am in.

Zion/Embiid/LaVine 1 or more dunk +200 (Fox)
Remember Embiid rarely dunks. They must make a ton on Embiid dunk boosts since they have one every time he plays. Pass.

Sixers/Nets/Pelicans to all win +310 (Fox)
The Sixers are small home dog and this should pay +296 or so. I am going to pass on the small dog Sixers being involved here, but they look like they are in a good spot. Pass.

Harden/Kyrie/Wall 25+ points +250 (Fox)
Harden’s points prop is set to 29.5.
Kyrie’s points prop is set to 27.5 and the under is slightly juiced.
Wall’s point prop is set to 24.5 and the over heavily juiced.
If you parlay all three of these to score 25+ on Fan Duel, it pays +264. Pass on this boost.

NCAA Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
Villanova to lead at halftime and win the game +110 (DK)
Nova is a 4.5 points favorite and -196 on the money line. The First half line is -168 in favor of Villanova. If you were to parlay both, it should pay around +140. For that reason alone, I am passing.

USC/PSU/FSU to all win +115 (DK)
This is a boost, slightly as it should pay +106. As always with these boosts, if you liked these teams before, go for it. If you did not before, pass. I will pass.

NBA
I am waiting on some injury information before locking this in.

NCAAB
Nothing at this time.

Let’s Get Weird
Nothing at this time.

Basketball
2020-2021 Season Record
NBA Record 28-28 50%
NCAA Record 9-13 40.9%
Hoops Parlay Record 7-15 -245
Hoops Odds Boosts 26-40 +1615
Hoops Player Props 4-2 +530
NBA Model Highest Rated 33-27 55%
NBA Model 195-210 48.14%

It seems like we are treading water with boosts and bets at this point. Nothing terrible is happening, but it feels like we are close. Maybe if Donovan Mitchell could not shoot 7-21 and still score 20+ point, things would turn around. All you can do when you play daily fantasy, make bets, buy investments or whatever you are doing is put yourself in a good position and hope it works out well. We cannot control everything. For every day where a player just reaches his points prop, there will be days where they just miss. The same goes for golf bets. After having a few runners finish second and hitting a live bet, we finally punched through with Collin Morikawa on Sunday. The important thing is, is the process correct. As long as your process is correct, the results will eventually follow. Some people asked me if I feel like I made a mistake if a boost comes in and I said pass. My answer is always the same, only if I made a mistake on the math. If a boost is +500 and the math says it should be +700, I do not care if it comes in. Over the long run, you cannot out run bad bets where the price is wrong. Sure, you may hit a winner at times, but the math will catch you in the long run. This is a game that never ends. I always stay within my bankroll plan, as you should too. Remember if a bet makes you nervous, scared, or anxious, you are betting too much.

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

NBA Model Plays
MEM -1
ATL +3.5 (Tied for Highest Rated in Model)
BOS +4
NYK -1.5
DEN +7.5 (Tied for Highest Rated in Model)
PHO +1.5

NBA Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
Paul George or Jaylen Brown to score first basket +270 (FD)
I will keep avoiding these. This is more of a gamble than it is a well-researched and calculated risk.

3×2 Boost Two or more made threes in first three minutes Clippers/Celtics +110 (FD)
Pass. Until I can find data that shows how many threes a team attempts in this period, so that I can break this down in a meaningful way, it is the same as first basket, just a gamble.

3×2 Boost Two or more made threes in first three minutes Lakers/Suns +110 (FD)
See above.

Booker to score 30+ points and Suns to win +470 (FD)
Booker’s point prop is set to 26.5 and the over is juiced. Booker to go over and the Suns to win pays +213. Booker is +152 to score 30+ points. If you parlay that over and the Suns to win, it pays +290. In this case, is three extra points worth the risk to jump to +470? I am a believer in the Suns tonight. I know that I preach not play some of these boosts unless you like the game. Well, I like this game. In fact, I really like the Suns tonight. I just worry that the pace is slow and Booker does not get there. Pass, but intrigued.  


LeBron to record a triple-double and the Lakers to win +1329 (DK)
LeBron is +500 to record a triple-double on Fan Duel. If you parlay a LeBron triple-double with a Lakers win, it should pay around +1000. LeBron has three triple-doubles this year and one of those games went to overtime. Notice they keep offering LeBron triple-double odds boost and I keep saying stay away. Pass again.

Giannis and Jokic to both record a triple-double +1720 (DK)
This should pay around +1670 for them to both record a triple-double, so it is a boost. This is also a back-to-back for the Nuggets. This game has a high total and yes, both people are capable of getting there. I just cannot recommend something that has such a low likelihood of coming in. I will say Denver is better on back-to-backs than expected, but this is a pass for me.

Kawhi and Tatum 1+ dunk and 1+ Made Three for each +200 (Fox)
Kawhi is averaging two made threes and just under one dunk per game.
Tatum is averaging just under three made threes and a little over a half a dunk per game.  If you add this up it is a pass. Neither player dunks consistently and that is before factoring in how bad the Celtics have been. If Jaylen Brown sits this could end up not being that competitive. Pass.

Clippers/Heat/Spurs all to win +375 (Fox)
If you parlay this on Fan Duel it pays +404. Pass on this “boost.”

Ja and Trae to both score 25+ points +600 (Fox)
Ja’s point prop is set to 19.5 and the over is heavily juiced.
Trae’s point prop is set to 25.5 and the over is slightly juiced.
You can parlay the over on both at +239.
Trae is -154 to score 25+ points.
Ja is +225 to score 25+ points.
If you parlay them together, it should pay +436.
The Memphis game has a total of 235.5 points. Ja has been bad recently, but some of that is because Memphis has been blown out a few times. Ja has only scored 25+ points in four of 22 games. I get it that on the surface this does not seem that fantastic. However, this is an eruption spot for Ja Morant. It is a solid boost in terms of what it should pay and this is a calculated risk. Trae’s number is appropriate and I am willing to bet that Ja plays very well tonight coming off a terrible game in his last outing. I am in.

NCAA Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
25% Profit Boost on one College Game ($50 max bet DK)

Texas/Arkansas/Purdue to all win +210 (DK)
This should pay +183 so it is a slight boost. Man, taking Purdue, as a slight home favorite feels risky. If you like Purdue, you should play this. The other two are decently sized favorites tonight. I did kick around the idea of playing this boost, then using the 25% profit boost to bet the Wisconsin money line. It is just not a wide enough margin to make it worth the risk and turn a profit for sure. Pass for me.

WVU to lead at halftime and Baylor to win the game +770 (DK)
I mean why? This is the most bizarre boost. Baylor is -200 to win this game. This can go badly in so many ways. Pass.

NBA
PHO +1.5
I think they win.

NCAAB
I will be on something and use that boost above. I am just not sure whom yet. I will post it on Twitter later tonight.

Let’s Get Weird
Nothing at this time.

Basketball
2020-2021 Season Record
NBA Record 27-28 49.09%
NCAA Record 9-13 40.9%
Hoops Parlay Record 7-15 -245
Hoops Odds Boosts 26-38 +1815
Hoops Player Props 4-2 +530
NBA Model Highest Rated 31-27 53.44%
NBA Model 190-209 47.61%

Monday mornings are always better when your 45/1 Collin Morikawa comes in. I was set to be disappointed again, as yesterday could have been the second time one of our runners had the lead after round three and lost this season. Instead, Morikawa came through and we cashed some tickets!

After some weak offerings and canceled odds boosts to due late scratches, tonight we have some interesting options!

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

NBA Model Plays
ORL +6
IND +4.5
NOP +7
SAS +5.5
HOU -2.5
CHI +4.5
CHA +6.5 (Highest Rated in model, but is also a road back-to-back.)

NBA Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
Zion to record 30+ points and 10+ Rebounds +385 (FD)
Zion’s points prop is set to 26.5 and the under is juiced.
Zion’s rebound prop is set to 7.5 and the under is juiced.
You can parlay the over on both for +167.
Zion is +174 to score 30+ points.
Zion is +220 to record 10+ rebounds.
If you parlay them, it pays +385. This is not a boost at all. Pass.

Dame to score 35+ points and Portland to win +290 (FD)
Dame’s points prop is set to 31.5 and the over is juiced.
Dame to hit the over and Portland to win pays +131.
Dame is +146 to score 35+ points.
If you parlay them, it plays +186. In this case, three points is worth a nice little boost. This is a road back-to-back for the Hornets. Dame has scored over 35 in 10 out of 33 games. This right in line with where it should be. I think Portland wins a high scoring game here and I am in on this. Fire it up!


LaMelo and Dame to make over 7.5 combined threes +205 (DK)
Dame’s made three props is set to 4.5 and the over is slightly juiced.
Dame to make 5+ threes pays -118 on Fan Duel.
Due to injury concerns, the Hornets do not have any player props listed.
LaMelo has made 2.7 threes per game since February 1^st. This is right on the line here, but if I like the last boost, it would only make sense to like this one. Dame should make 5+ threes here and we may only need 1-2 from LaMelo. This game also has a nice total of 232.5 points. I am in.

Zion over 2.5 Dunks and Pelicans to win +680 (DK)
This is right in line for dunks for Zion, but being a dog to the hottest team in the NBA. Pass.

Sixers/Jazz/Nets to all win +225 (Fox)
This is a tiny boost as it pays +217 on Fan Duel. This feels dangerous playing so many short favorites, including two on the road. Pass.

Luka/Jokic/Mitchell 25+ points each +300 (Fox)
Luka’s point prop is set to 29.5.
Luka is -330 to score 25+ points.
Jokic’s point prop is set to 26.5 and the over is slightly juiced.
Jokic is -188 to score 25+ points.
Mitchell’s point prop is set to 26.5.
Mitchell is -178 to score 25+ points.
If you parlay all three to score 25+ points it pays +212. All three player need to just miss their prop. I am in.

Embiid/Gobert/LaVine 1 + dunks each +200
Embiid is always in doubt with dunk props. Pass here.

NCAA Odds Boosts You Should Consider Betting
Oklahoma/STL/SYR all to win +400 (DK)
OK -1.5 (-124)
STL -10.5 (-560)
SYR +1.5 (+100)
This is a slight boost as this parlay pays +326 on Fan Duel. I am not a fan as always of tiny favorites or dogs unless you already liked them. Pass for me.

NBA
CHA +6.5
The Hornets are 4-3 on back-to-backs and while I do think Portland wins, this will be close and competitive. I also trust the model. I wonder if anyone sits/returns for Charlotte.

NCAAB
Richmond -14.5
St. Joe’s is 3-14 and has been awful on the road this year.

Let’s Get Weird
Nothing at this time.

Basketball
2020-2021 Season Record
NBA Record 27-27 50%
NCAA Record 9-12 42.85%
Hoops Parlay Record 7-15 -245
Hoops Odds Boosts 25-36 +1910
Hoops Player Props 4-2 +530
NBA Model Highest Rated 31-27 53.44%
NBA Model 189-204 48.09%