The good news is that the computer model can only get better from this point moving forward. Conversely, I ended up 3-2 in the Circa Millions contest. I had four games solidly in by last Friday. I determined the Saints, Bucs, Eagles and Steelers with the line move were in my final five. Friday night I waffled a great deal between the Cardinals and the Chiefs. Fast forward to Sunday afternoon and I was feeling a great deal of regret as I landed on the Chiefs. Fortunately, the Chiefs came in and no matter where I had landed, I would have been 3-2. There are just under 5800 people in the Circa Millions and now I am tied in 2050th with around a thousand of my friends. It is time for week two.
CAR -2.5 at ATL
If only the Falcons had a QB. The Panthers defense could not stop the run, or pass, but I can not back the Falcons and Cooper Rush. I think Bijan has a massive day but pass on playing this in a contest or as a wager.
MIN +5.5 at CHI
Carson Wentz on the road after getting multiple bailouts calls to help move the ball and beat the Packers. I think the Vikings defense makes this interesting, but I am staying away from this one as well. I hate week two.
PHI -7 at TEN
We do not make money laying a TD or more on the road. I do not care about the result and situation, but I am out. The Eagles are significantly better, but their once solid offensive line seems to be struggling at the moment. Pass on this game.
PIT +5.5 at NE
Man. Steelers bias alert. The Steelers defense should be able to dominate at times. Yet, my concern is the Steelers offense. Can we blame DK for all the issues along with the non-calls? The Steelers offensive line may have to do some shuffling, but this team only scored 13 points against a bad Falcons team. The Steelers feel like the correct side, but I can not do it. Pass, but lean Steelers.
GB -3.5 at NYJ
This is the sharp play of the week. This line has come down from 5.5 all the way to 3.5 since the look ahead last week. The Packers offensive line got exposed in an awful way. Are the Jets actually good, or did they just play the Titans las week? I understand the appeal of wanting to take a home dog here especially against a team with a shaky defense, they can not run the ball. This just feels like a sharp trap. Pass for now, but lean Jets.
CLE +8.5 at TB
Sometimes I end up with the public on a very chalky play. The Browns are terrible. Watson is horrendous. They were never in the game last week; they were not even competitive. Meanwhile the Bucs did not punt last week. Zero punts. They lost and were not good with the points either. The Bucs fumbled four times last week and lost them all. If the Bucs just continue to move the ball like they did last week and have a little more success in the redzone they should cover this number. If Baker fumbles inside the five-yard-line, so be it. I am going to add in the Florida heat always being an issue for northern teams in the season. TB -8.5 as a wager and in contests.
NO +8.5 at BAL
We did not for sure know the status of Zay Flowers. The Ravens could potentially be without two wide receivers and coming home after a huge week one road win. I may be making a huge mistake here, honestly. The Saints had an early TD taken away on a call I still do not understand, then they exploded offensively. When teams have an offense and can score, they are dangerous and dogs I want to back. The Ravens have done this in the past, laying an egg at home after big road win. Yes, different coaching staff and all, but if the Ravens are going to be this Super Bowl contender, they come out and take care of business here. If the Ravens are missing a lot from their passing attack, it should mean the Saints can focus on the running game and slow Derrick Henry. It feels like the Saints may be the team that goes 8-9 but finishes 13-4 ATS. Nothing like backing a dome team outdoors on grass when they played a first half so bad last week, I wondered if they would pick a QB in the first next year. Saints +8.5 as a bet and in picks contests.
CIN +2.5 at HOU
The Bengals defense did force turnovers last week, which was much needed in order to improve that defense and win last week. I have no idea about this game. Nico Collins may be sitting out, the Bengals being the Bengals. I want to back the Texans defense, but I cannot. Lean Houston, but pass.
JAX +2.5 at DEN
I am not going to overreact here, so I am staying away from this game as well. Pass as I have no feel at all.
LV +6.5 at LAC
Is Ladd playing? The Chargers offense fell apart as soon as Ladd got hurt. The line here is saying the Chargers are the correct side, but I can not do it. The Chargers have always been good, but not great and maybe they are falling apart. Pass.
WAS +4 at DAL
The Commanders played a lot better than I thought they would last week. The Washington defense I was convinced would be awful and it was adequate. On the other side of the ball Jayden Daniels was good, his mobility helped camouflage the porous offensive line the Commanders possess. Dallas oddly seemed confused on defense. The Giants just physically pushed them around and then Dallas was kept off the field by the Giants dominant time of possession. I Think if the Eagles offensive line was better, they would have scored a lot more and rolled over the Commanders. This is the game the Dallas offense explodes. I think Dak has a fantastic game, as does Lamb and the drop king, George Pickens. I love a Dallas rebound performance here. Cowboys -4 as a bet and in contests.
MIA +13.5 at SF
I am not going to lie, I kind of want to play the Niners. We know these teams are not close in talent; it is just a matter of if San Fran is acclimated back to being on West Coast time. Lean SF.
SEA -3.5 at ARZ
Drew Locke is laying 3.5 on the road, in the year 2026. No, this is not a CFL line. I said last week, Arizona has weapons and can score. But this will be a real test against the Seahawks defense. What can we make of the Patriots not taking advantage of the Seattle secondaries injury issues? Do we blame a vanilla game plan, Drake Maye? I very much want to back the home divisional dog here but am waiting. Lean Arizona but pass for now.
IND +6.5 at KC
I feel like I got the Chiefs correct during week one. I am good to take a break from backing or attacking them. The old path though was to take the dog when Patrick Mahomes is giving more than three points. Both teams should regress back to the middle a little this week. Lean Colts, but I am not excited to go after either side. Pass.
NYG +7 at LAR
This is a get right spot for the Rams, but I am passing. I want to see it from the Rams first. I assume we can chalk up last week to the awful preparation and travel plans. Maybe the Giants are for real, but I am not buying it yet. If the G-Men can win here, everyone will be buying in. Lean Rams, pass for now.
So here we are, with three game set for Circa Millions and two more to go. I will post my updated plays on Twitter/X later this weekend.
Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!
My Plays
3 Team Parlay +115 (DK)
Buff -1.5 (WIN)
PITT ML (WIN)
MIA (Hurricanes) -6.5
TB -8 (Fanatics)
NO +8.5
DAL -4
3 Team 6-Point Tease +140 (DK)
TB -2.5
PHI -1
LAR -1
Circa Millions Contest
TB -8.5
NO +8.5
DAL -4
Survivor Selections
I have two entries in most of my survivor contests.
Entry One
PIT (WIN)
TB
Entry Two
JAX (WIN)
SF
NFL Computer Model Picks
Platinum
HOU -2.5
IND +6.5
LAR -7
Premium
GB -3.5
NO +8.5
The Rest
DET +5.5
ATL +2.5
MIN +5.5
PHI -7
PIT +5.5
CLE +8.5
JAX +2.5
LAC -6.5
WAS +4
SEA -3.5
MIA +13.5
NFL Computer Model
2026-2027 Season
Overall 6-10 37.5%
Platinum 0-2 0%
Premium 0-3 0%
My Plays
Overall 2-2 50%
Circa Millions Contests Record 3-2 60%
Props/Parlays/Teasers/Other 0-1 -100
Boosts 1-1 +000
Win The Weekends 