NFL Week 9 Wagers, Contest Picks and Computer Model Plays

This is an odd week. I do not have a great feel at this point. As an adult with children, sometimes real life gets in the way.

Car +14 AT GB
I have seen the Panthers on the road. This is either play Green Bay or pass. I am leaning into pass.

DEN +2 at HOU
Is the Houston defense the best unit in this game? Both defenses should play well, but the Broncos missing a star CB matters a ton when Niko Collins is coming back. Pass.

MIN +8.5 at DET
This is basically a rookie QB on the road against a team we know will score. Lean Detroit.

ATL +5.5 at NE
I am about to give up on the Falcons. The Patriots are either very good, or playing the softest schedule ever, or perhaps both. Pass for now.

IND -3 at PIT
This has to be the Admiral Akbar spot. I am going to the game, but this line is too small. The Steelers can not stop anyone at this point. I am not playing the Steelers.

CHI -2.5 at CIN
A hurt Joe Flacco takes on a not great defense. I think this is a great DFS game, but not sure about betting. Pass.

LAC -9.5 at TEN
I am not laying over a TD on the road. Pass.

SF -3 at NYG
I am very interested in the home dog Giants here. The Niners defense is hurt, they have zero pass rush and the Giants still find a way to move the ball pretty well. Not official, but massive lean on NYG, especially at this number.

NO +14 at LAR
When a rookie QB takes over the ranges of possible outcomes have widened a great deal. He could be awful, he could be better than Spencer rattler, anything is in play. Rams or pass for me.

JAX -2.5 at LVR
Please Lord keep me away from playing the Raiders here. Brock Bowers returns and I want to play the Raiders. Check back Sunday.

KC -1.5 at BUF
I am on the Chiefs here. The Bills struggle on defense and their offense has been worse than anticipated. Chiefs are healthy and seemed to be rounding into shape. If you remove some random Mahomes picks, the Chiefs record is even better. Chiefs in contests and as a wager.

SEA -3 at WAS
Ohhhh man, I have no feel here. The easy answer is Seattle. A not completely healthy Jayden Daniels without his NO.1 WR, against a Seattle team that seems to score every week. Pass for now, but I do not want to lay points on the road all week long.

ARZ +2.5 at DAL
Nope. I will not be trapped by these two bad teams again. Pass.

This is where I am at the moment and who knows what news may hit that changes my plans in contests. As of now, I have one team in for sure and lots of work to do!

I will post my choices on Twitter/X Sunday morning.  

Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!

My Plays
KC -1.5

Contest Picks
KC -1.5

Computer Model Plays
Platinum
IND -3

Premium
KC -1.5

Regular Plays
CHI -2.5
DET -8.5
CAR +14
LAC -9.5
NE -5.5
SF -2.5
HOU -1.5
JAX -3.5
LAR -14
SEA -3.5
ARZ +2.5

NFL Computer Model
2025-2026 Season
Overall 56-66 45.90%
Platinum 2-5 28.57%
Premium 14-12 53.84%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 16-17 48.48%

My Plays
Overall 12-10 54.54%
Draft Kings Contest Record 24-16 60%
Props/Parlays/Teasers/Other 2-2 50% +000