We have several teams on bye week this week which presents a problem when it comes to contest plays. Less games, of course, means less options.
BUF -7 at CAR
You would think I would be leaning toward the home dog here, especially one that has played very well at home. Instead, I am leaning toward the Bills coming off two losses and a bye week. Due to the face that I am not a fan of laying points on the road, let alone more than a TD, I am passing.
NYG +7.5 at PHI
This number feels too high, but I just keep waiting for the Eagles to truly wake up and get out of their funk. Maybe last week was a move in the correct direction, but I am staying away form this game.
CLE +7 at NE
Ah, no thank you. The Patriots have moved the ball against everyone, but this is a real defense. Having said that, not sure how the Browns score. Pass for me.
MIA +7.5 at ATL
Sometimes we have to eat the chalk and I am prepared to do that here. I think we all know the Dolphins are dead and heading for some sort of divorce. The Dolphins cannot stop the run. The Falcons like to run it with two very capable backs. We back the Falcons at home and fade them on the road. Atlanta in contests and as a wager.
NYJ +6 at CIN
This line has slowly fallen. I want no parts of either side. The Jets stink and the Bengals are over-inflated dur to their win over the Steelers last Thursday. Four weeks ago if I said a Flacco lead team, was laying almost a touchdown you would have laughed and bet the other side. Pass for me.
CHI +6.5 at BAL
Is the Ravens defense fixed? We know the Ravens are going to score here and I have a tendency to want to back the best unit in games. I am awaiting injury reports and seeing how healthy Baltimore will actually be this weekend. Pass for now.
SF +1.5 at HOU
The Texans are the correct side in this one, but I will not back their offense unless things change. Add into that, Houston may be missing both starting WR’s and it is not exactly like they have been lighting the score board on fire. Yes, the Niners have plethora of injuries as well, I know, but I hate this Houston team. Pass.
TB -4.5 at NOS
Speaking of teams with injuries, the Bucs are up against it again on a short week on the road. Mike Evans is gone, Chris Godwin is gone, it is Tez time! If the Bucs were remotely healthy, I would be in, but we do not lay points on the road. Lean Saints, but pass.
DAL +3.5 at DEN
I never have a great handle on Dallas and Denver pulled a game out they had no business winning. I think the Cowboys offense is very good and if the Giants can score on the Broncos, why can’t the Cowboys? Lean Dallas.
TEN +14.5 at INDY
I would lay 16.5. The Titans are bad. They had two of their only good defenders get hurt. Indy scores on everyone, they have the entire year. How many points do the Titans need to score to be good with 14? That number is at least 17 points. In their first game, the Colts win 41-20. The Titans have scored 12, 19, 20, 0, 22, 10, 13 points this season. I am betting on the Colts to win and cover a large number. Colts as a wager and in picks contests.
GB -3 at PIT
The Steelers are a home dog here, which may be surprising to some. The Packers have not been as good as they were expected to be, and the Steelers may be very overrated. If the Packers had a bunch of great WR’s I would be worried about the Steelers in this game. The Steelers have been solid against the run. I need the Packers pass catchers to prove it to me. I believe the Steelers offensive line will hold up against the Packers pass rush. The Packers are 1-5 ATS this season overall and 0-3 on the road. Like I said, overvalued in market. Steelers as a bet and in contests.
KC -12.5 vs WAS
Nope. I am staying away here. Chiefs may just be figuring it out, but I am not laying this many unless I really trust the offense to run the ball. Pass.
This is where I am at the moment and who knows what news may hit that changes my plans in contests. As of now, I have one team in for sure and lots of work to do!
I will post my choices on Twitter/X Sunday morning.
Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!
My Plays
PIT +3
ATL -7.5
INDY -14.5
Contest Picks
PIT +3.5
ATL -7.5
INDY -14.5
Computer Model Plays
Platinum
CHI +6.5
IND -14.5
Premium
NYJ +6.5
NYG +7.5
WAS +12.5
Regular Plays
MIN +3.5
ATL -7.5
CLE +7
CAR +7.5
HOU -1.5
TB -3.5
DAL +3.5
PIT +3
NFL Computer Model
2025-2026 Season
Overall 52-57 47.70%
Platinum 1-4 20%
Premium 13-10 56.52%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 14-14 50%
My Plays
Overall 11-8 57.89%
Draft Kings Contest Record 22-13 62.85%
Props/Parlays/Teasers/Other 2-2 50% +000
Win The Weekends 