The goal is to keep griding out 3-2 every week in picks contests. I am sitting at 16-9 at this point and that is a fantastic pace I would be happy to keep. Last week was the revenge of the dog and after Thursday night, we have had another larger dog win outright. There are more ugly dogs this week as well.
DEN -7.5 at NYJ (LON)
The Jets are terrible and can not stop, well anything. The Denver defense may limit the Jets from doing anything. Lean Broncos and no way I am touching the Jets here.
CLE +5.5 at PIT
Me a few weeks ago: NO MORE STEELERS! THEY ARE TERRIBLE.
Me now: So, Mike Tomlin laying points at home, this has never gone badly before.
We have seen this movie. Tomlin and the Steelers playing a team they should easily handle, at home. I normally completely stay away from this, but what a tough spot for the Browns. Rookie QB on the road making second career start coming back from London playing against an almost healthy Steelers team coming off a bye week. This is a god awful spot for the Browns in terms of rest advantage. Heavily lean Steelers, but I want to stay away.
ARZ +7 at INDY
I like the Colts. The Cardinals are closer to firing everyone than they are competing. The Colts quietly just keep scoring every single week. The Colts will score again here. I am on the Colts as a bet and in the contest at -6.5. Yes, the Colts are laying seven in real life and I am in on that number too.
DAL -3 at CAR
The professionals are on the Panthers here. With the contest number being set at +3.5 I am curious, but I am staying away for now. I continue to think that at times backing the best unit in the game, which sounds simple, could be profitable. The Cowboys offense is good, even missing lineman and Lamb it appears. Pass for me.
LAR -7.5 at BAL
Nope. I am not laying a TD on the road. Baltimore might also be completely dead until their bye week. Pass.
LAC -4.5 at MIA
The Chargers cannot protect Justin Herbert. The Dolphins have zero pass rush. I hate this game. Pass.
NE -3.5 at NO
We do not lay points on the road with bad teams coming off a huge win. Pass on this game.
SEA -1.5 at JAX
This line keeps flipping around as both have been favored throughout the week. Seattle has plenty of injuries and the Jags of course are coming off a huge win last week. This feels like an obvious let-down spot, but the Jags defense just keeps on forcing turnovers. Pass until we find out more about the Seattle injuries.
TEN +4.5 at LVR
Fire this game into the sun.
CIN +14 at GB
I am very interested in the Packers. The Bengals have an awful offensive line and can not protect at all. Now, they insert a statue at the QB position. I think the Packers coming off a bye week have a very nice get right spot. The Packers still scored 40 and did not win in their last game. I like Green Bay -14, but in contests it is sitting at -14.5. I am pausing for now, but this could be the 5th game when I am struggling to find one this weekend.
SF +3 at TB
Too many injuries at the moment. Pass for now.
DET +2.5 at KC
I love the Chiefs here. Detroit looks great against bad defenses and the Chiefs will be much better than what they have shown. Kansas City has fixed their offense, and the Lions have a slew of defensive injuries. KC as a bet and in picks contests.
BUF -4.5 at ATL
I want to take the home dog here, but going against Josh Allen coming off a loss feels wrong. I am passing for now.
CHI +4.5 at WAS
The Bears coming off a bye week get a shot at revenge for last year’s Hail Mary game. You can throw the ball down the field on the Commanders, but the Bears may not be able to protect. Lean Washington due to their new ability to run the ball. Pass for now.
This is where I am at the moment and who knows what news may hit that changes my plans in contests. As of now, I have one team in for sure and lots of work to do!
I will post my choices on Twitter/X Sunday morning and may make a video for TikTok and YouTube like I did a few times last year.
Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!
My Plays
IND -7
KC -2.5
GB -14
Contest Picks
IND -6.5
KC -1.5
Computer Model Plays
Platinum
DEN -7
WAS -4.5
Premium
IND -7
LAR -7.5
SF +3
DET +2.5
Regular Plays
PHI -7
LAC -4.5
NE -3.5
PIT -6
DAL -3
SEA +1
TEN +4
GB -14
BUF -4.5
NFL Computer Model
2025-2026 Season
Overall 42-37 53.16%
Platinum 1-2 33.33%
Premium 11-5 68.75%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 12-7 63.15%
My Plays
Overall 6-5 54.54%
Draft Kings Contest Record 16-9 64%
Props/Parlays/Teasers/Other 2-2 50% +000
Win The Weekends 