It hurts losing a contest play on Thursday. It is almost impossible to not select a game in which the line has changed and crossed key numbers. Going from -5.5 all the way to -8.5 seems like a pretty easy decision. I do not always take these situations though. I will be taking Houston +3.5 in the Draft Kings contest Sunday. That is a lock to select, and I assume everyone else does the exact same thing.
MIN -4.5 at CLE (LON)
Oh boy, we have a rookie QB against a Brian Flores defense. However, we have Carson Wentz and a beat up offensive line against the Browns defense. I think the best unit on the field will be the Browns defense. Lean Cleveland but pass for now.
DEN +3.5 at PHI
The Eagles have been bad yet remain 4-0. Denver would be a Super Bowl contender if they had much better QB play. I do not feel right laying points with the Eagles at this time. I need to see how the Philly offensive line holds up against the Denver defense. Lean Denver, but pass for now>
LVR +7 at IND
Geno and the Raiders are not good. Last week should have been an easy win with how well they ran the ball against Chicago, but Gen had other ideas. I know the Colts secondary is banged up, I just cannot be on the Raiders for the fourth time this year in five weeks. I am 2-1 on Raiders selections at this point and I think I may abstain.
NYG +1.5 at NO
Dart was not great throwing the ball last week, and not he has lost his best WR. I know the Saints are bad and Spencer Rattler has never won a game he has started. I think the Saints defense is good enough to make this interesting. Last week Omario Hampton was a weapon especially in the passing game, could this be an Alvin Kamara game? Lean NO, but nothing at this point.
DAL -2.5 at NYJ
Everyone scores on the Jets. If there is one thing Dallas can do it is score. This entire game might be defense optional. Pass on this game, but should be fun for DFS purposes.
HOU -2.5 at BAL
I am on the Texans +3.5 in contests. There is no chance I am laying points on the road with the Texans. Oddly, out model does have Houston grading out as a slight favorite. I think both teams are bad, but the Ravens have the coaching edge. Right? I mean I thought they did, but their defense has been horrendous.
MIA -1.5 at CAR
Does anyone want to watch this game? I am not touching this at all.
TEN +7.5 at ARZ
I am using Arizona in survivor this week. I elected to save the Rams because they host the Saints in a few weeks. Dodged a bullet there. I think everyone agrees the Cardinals should not be this large of favorite against anyone. However, I am sure you saw the same stat that I did that the Titans are 3-16 ATS under Brian Callahan. You know how Tom Brady used to brake models and do things never scene before, well the Titans continue to do just that in negative ways. I am not playing the Titans, nor the Cardinals. Pass.
TB +3 at SEA
This number is 3.5 in contests. We have a slow starting Bucs team that is not healthy on the road against a team with a rest advantage. No Bucky Irving, no Mike Evans and the offensive line is still banged up. The Bucs held the Eagles to ZERO passing yards in the second half last week and lost. I like betting on the Seahawk defense here and Sam Darnold not making a big mistake. Heavily lean Seattle in contests, I bet Seattle -3 (-115) over on Draft Kings Sportsbook.
DET -10.5 at CIN
The Bengals are terrible. Everyone knows this team is dead in the water. I am not laying 10+ points on the road ever. Pass. Why do I want to stack the Bengals in DFS. Send help.
WAS +2.5 at LAC
I am not completely sure what to make of this game. Coming back home after a bad road loss, can be a great spot to back a good team. The Chargers though lost their other great OT. I do not have a good feel here at all. Pass.
NE +8.5 at BUF
The computer loves the Patriots. I was leaning Buffalo. That combo means I am passing.
KC -3.5 at JAX
I have no idea if the Jags are good. Last week Brock Purdy threw them the ball. The Jags could still not beat the Bengals a few weeks ago and I cannot get that out of my head. I like the Chiefs defense more than any other unit in this game. Pass.
This is where I am at the moment and who knows what news may hit that changes my plans in contests. As of now, I have one team in for sure and lots of work to do!
I will post my choices on Twitter/X Sunday morning and may make a video for TikTok and YouTube like I did a few times last year.
Until the games start, let’s have some fun and build the pile!
My Plays
SEA -3
Contest Picks
LAR -5.5
HOU +3.5
Survivor
I am splitting my entries again to give me some different paths. I am using Arizona this week, as this is the only time they are really usable. I hate it.
Entry 1
Philly (WIN Week 1)
Baltimore (WIN Week 2)
Seattle (WIN Week 3)
Denver (WIN Week 4)
Arizona (Week 5)
Entry 2
Denver (WIN Week 1)
Detroit (WIN Week 2)
Seattle (WIN Week 3)
Houston (WIN Week 4)
Arizona (Week 5)
Computer Model Plays
Platinum
Premium
NE +8.5
Regular Plays
SF +8.5
MIN -4.5
IND -7
NYG +1.5
DAL -2.5
DEN +3.5
MIA -1.5
HOU -2.5
TEN +7.5
TB +3.5
DET -10.5
WAS +2.5
KC -3.5
NFL Computer Model
2025-2026 Season
Overall 32-33 49.23%
Platinum 1-2 33.33%
Premium 10-5 66.66%
Recommended Plays (Platinum + Premium) 11-7 61.11%
My Plays
Overall 6-4 60%
Draft Kings Contest Record 13-7 65%
Props/Parlays/Teasers/Other 2-1 66.66% +100
Win The Weekends 